全部推文
共 6424 条 · 第 136 / 215 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
HOOD财报后牛市或终结，短期震荡，需靠国际化或发币破局。
在财报发布后，我开始感觉 $HOOD 的牛市周期已经结束。 我不认为它会崩盘，但可能会在一段时间内保持区间震荡。 看到营收同比增速放缓至 27%，而在 800 亿美元市值下，远期 35 倍市盈率 (P/E) 的估值可能会膨胀至 45-50 倍以上。 这种增长部分是通过收购（例如收购 Bitstamp）买来的，而不是像过去那样通过新功能变现实现的。 长期来看它仍有潜力，但短期面临太多逆风。 唯一的慰藉是加密市场正在复苏。 或者 - 尽快进行国际股票扩张（$IBKR 正在大量吸纳资金流，因为投资者希望配置日本或韩国等其他国家的市场） - 在其新区块链上推出代币，以便像 BNB 和币安那样增加资产负债表规模。 以及其他一些想法等。 我不认为依赖预测市场 (prediction markets) 是正确的选择。为了短期利益这样做，形象 (optics) 肯定很差。
英文原文
Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings. I don’t think it’s going to crash, but likely stay rangebound for awhile. Seeing revenue deceleration to 27% y/y and forward 35 p/e estimates possibly balloon to 45-50+ at a $80B MC. That growth was partially bought as well (eg. Bitstamp acquisition) rather than new feature monetization like they’ve done in the past. Long term it still has potential but short term too many headwinds. The saving grace is crypto market recovering. Or - International stock expansion ASAP ( $IBKR is eating up a ton of inflows as investors want exposure to other countries like Japan or Korea) - Token launch on their new blockchain, so they can bump up balance sheets like BNB and Binance. With some other ideas, etc. Don’t think relying on prediction markets is the right choice to go down. It’s definitely a bad optics for short term gain.
-
Reddit用户去社区是为了看股票观点和赛事讨论，而非问AI能答的问题。
@Darkhawk720 @number1invest_ 你真的认为人们去 $RDDT 是为了问那些能被 AI 回答的问题吗？不。你去是为了看 WSB 上备受推崇的股票观点，或是看人们对超级碗或英雄联盟比赛的反应/讨论。
英文原文
@Darkhawk720 @number1invest_ Do you genuinely think people go to $RDDT to get ask questions that can get answered by AI? No. You go for regarded takes on stocks on WSB or to see other reactions/discussions from people about the superbowl or league of legends games.
-
《清晰法案》将重创加密货币，利好美元
@FinanceLancelot 这位家伙还将通过《清晰法案》(Clarity Act) 让每一种加密货币崩溃。 对美元有利，对其它一切不利
英文原文
@FinanceLancelot The guy is going to collapse every single crypto currency as well with the Clarity Act. Good for the dollar, bad for everything else
-
持有RDDT多头，因看涨期权IV过高而不看好期权交易。
@number1invest_ 我只是持有 $RDDT 的多头头寸。Reddit 看涨期权（Calls）的隐含波动率（Implied Volatility, IV）真的很高，所以我不太看好。
英文原文
@number1invest_ I’m just long $RDDT shares. IV is really high for Reddit calls so not a fan.
-
认为LITE长期价值未完全定价，短期涨幅已大。
@mhayavkay 你意识到很多产能爬坡(ramp)发生在2028年吗？ 对于像 $LITE 这样占 Google TPU BOM 约 8-12% 的公司，我认为其长期价值尚未完全反映在股价中（短期已反映，过去一个月已上涨 70%）。https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
英文原文
@mhayavkay You do realize a lot of the ramp happens 2028 right? For stuff like $LITE which is ~8-12 of Google TPU BOM, I don't quite think it's priced in long term yet (short term yes, it rallied 70% 1M). https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
-
建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
-
反驳媒体观点，指出三星扩产HBM4不影响SanDisk的NAND业务。
如果非要简化来说。三星和 $SNDK 都是“农夫”。三星想种牛油果（HBM4）。他们把一半的农田用来生产更高价的牛油果。$SNDK 表示他们将继续种植玉米（NAND）。三星卖出更多牛油果并不会影响玉米市场。事实上，这甚至可能让玉米更贵。所以媒体说因为三星要做牛油果导致 SanDisk 下跌，这毫无道理。
英文原文
If I had to try and make it simpler. Samsung and $SNDK are both farmers. Samsung wants to farm avocados (HBM4). They dedicate half their farmland to make produce higher priced avocados. $SNDK says they're going to keep growing corn (NAND). Samsung selling more avocados does not affect the corn market. In fact it might even make it more expensive. So all the media saying Sandisk is dropping because Samsung wants to make avocados makes no sense.
-
博主以幽默方式回应关于RDDT和WSB的关注。
@platochi @karlfugs $RDDT 和 WSB 被视为（被关注/被认可），但这正是我那种“被视为”的方式。
英文原文
@platochi @karlfugs $RDDT and WSB is regarded but it’s my type of regarded
-
博主调侃对方需先理解摆动交易概念。
@karlfugs 等你搞懂什么是摆动交易(swing trading)时告诉我。 https://t.co/sCyPnr6VTf
英文原文
@karlfugs Tell me when you learn what swing trading is. https://t.co/sCyPnr6VTf
-
博主澄清自己是波段交易员，当前操作为新开仓。
@karlfugs 你难道不知道我是一名波段交易员(swing trader)吗？这是一个新头寸(new position)。https://t.co/Kaub4TrEWK
英文原文
@karlfugs You do realize I'm a swing trader right? This is a new position. https://t.co/Kaub4TrEWK
-
Reddit财报亮眼且具网络效应，优于面临逆风的HOOD/HIMS。
持有 $RDDT 第1天：+5.83%。 Reddit 正在快速增长，同比增长50%+（本季度同比增长70%），且净利润是其收入的1/3。 毛利率高达91%，这高得离谱。 令我惊讶的是，更多 $HOOD 或 $HIMS 的持有者在财报后看到收入减速或受到冲击，却没有进行调仓。 其他公司面临的是实际的结构性收入逆风，而 Reddit 只是来自 AI 颠覆的噪音。
英文原文
Day 1 of holding $RDDT: +5.83%. Reddit is growing rapidly 50%+ Y/Y (grew 70% Y/Y this quarter) and net income is 1/3rd their revenue. Gross margins are 91%, which is absurdly high. Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption. You have actual structural headwinds for revenue for other companies while Reddit is just noise from AI disruption.
-
NBIS类似早期ASTS，营收爆发尚需时日，目前处于等待期。
@retail_mourinho 没错！🐂 $NBIS。Nebius 让我想起早期的 $ASTS，你大概预期营收会大幅增长，但这还需要一段时间，所以看起来像是一场等待游戏。
英文原文
@retail_mourinho Yep!🐂 $NBIS. Nebius reminds me of early $ASTS where you kinda expect the revenue to scale up immensely but it’s awhile away, so seems like a waiting game.
-
博主转发他人推文并附带思考表情，无具体观点。
@Gubloinvestor 🤔 https://t.co/C7lwCrRYnG
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor 🤔 https://t.co/C7lwCrRYnG
-
用7N高纯铟指标追踪AXTI涨价及毛利提升。
@zephyr_z9 确实，7N高纯度铟（非标准产品）是我洗澡或睡觉时脑海中唯一的事情。但我将其作为衍生指标，用来追踪 $AXTI 可能的涨价、需求以及毛利率提升，因为这些在公开数据中并不明显。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 True, 7N high purity indium (non standard products) is the only thing on my mind when I'm in the shower or sleeping. But it's the derivative metric I use to track $AXTI possible price hikes + demand + gross margin increases since it's not really visible from public data.
-
美政府为保美元霸权强制加密货币挂钩美元，虽摧毁行业但意在稀释债务。
1) 我经营一家金融科技(fintech)公司，每天与监管机构和立法打交道，因此非常了解目前的局势。 2) 情况很微妙，美国政府希望所有交易都以美元计价。他们看到其他国家纷纷转向黄金（黄金市值已超越国债），但仍希望美元保持储备货币地位。因此，他们正在动用一切手段来强制推行美元计价（例如，将加密货币重新绑定回美元）。 但在这个过程中，这实际上摧毁了加密货币行业（我仍然站在美国政府一边，这只是可能结果的悲惨现实）。 话虽如此，我强烈反对他们通过“清晰法案(Clarity Act)”投毒式地处理这些问题。 所以，这是在通过通胀稀释债务与确保美元仍是储备货币之间的一种微妙平衡。
英文原文
1) I run a fintech and deal with regulators/legislation on a daily basis, so very familiar with what’s going on 2) it’s nuanced, US gov wants everything to be dollar denominated. they see other countries flocking to gold (gold mc outpaced treasuries) but still want the US dollar to be the reserve company. So they’re pulling every string attached to create forced dollar denomination (eg. with crypto back to usd). But in this process, it effectively nukes the crypto industry (I’m still siding with US gov, this is just the sad reality of the likely outcome). That being said I’m really against the way they’re poison pilling things with the “Clarity Act”. So it’s a delicate balance between inflating away debt while making sure US dollar is still the reserve currency
-
揭秘监管与保证金调整如何重创加密市场，看好比特币及持牌机构反弹。
我觉得伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)和机构错过了比特币暴跌的许多原因。华尔街日报(WSJ)和媒体也是如此，这就是为什么散户一无所知。 两点原因： 1. “清晰法案(Clarity Act)”加上“天才法案(Genius Act)”的一部分，是银行和政府为了加强美元而对加密货币投下的战术核弹。“安全”目的纯属胡扯。例如（稳定币储备必须与美元/国债保持1:1）。 据CEO去年会议透露，Tether持有10万+枚比特币，且2025年是净买入方。随着该法案实施，像Tether这样的主要买家可能会在2026-2027年被迫卖出，因为其约1800亿美元市值的稳定币中持有大量南美农场等流动性差的资产，而其10万+枚比特币具有高流动性。 -> 稳定币收益率 如果交易所和金融科技(Fintech)公司无法通过稳定币和其他存款提供收益，这将极具破坏性。巨额流动性将从加密货币中流出。 此外，关于美元抵押品、资金流中的银行以及国家CFTC许可证的不同条款，可能会摧毁许多交易所/去中心化交易所(DEX)/金融科技公司的头部，并伤害山寨币。有太多毒丸条款会扼杀任何非银行金融科技/加密货币公司。例如，使银行成为有效的垄断者。但这可以在另一篇帖子中解释。 2. 白银流动性核弹。这是CME和交易所将保证金提高到不合理水平以迫使清算级联，并以“鹰派”美联储主席作为叙事借口。 其他风险投资(VC)声称某亚洲公司爆仓并被迫清算来自白银交易的比特币，但这都是多方面的，很可能源于上述两点。 主流媒体几乎未报道百分比变化和6次以上的加息。只是责怪美联储主席。 这也蔓延到股市中任何高贝塔(high beta)资产，但看起来像是一次孤立暴跌。 基本上，没人能报道《清晰法案》是摧毁加密货币的毒丸，因为银行游说，以及CME保证金上调（以迫使白银清算）。如果报道了，贝森特(Bessent)和美国政府就会追究他们。所以散户一无所知，并被煤气灯操纵(gaslit)认为“清晰法案”对加密货币是好事。 实际上，美国政府只是在通过游说加强美元+银行垄断，同时在这个过程中摧毁加密货币。（如果我是政府，这很有道理，我只是引用诚实的后果） 话虽如此，比特币在当前水平感觉像是免费的地皮，我预计该资产以及申请银行特许状的特定加密货币公司将恢复。
英文原文
I feel like Bernstein and institutions missed a lot on why Bitcoin crashed. Same with WSJ + media, which is why nobody in retail knows. Two things: 1. “Clarity Act” + part of the Genius Act is a tactical nuke on crypto by banks + Gov to strengthen the dollar. “Safety” purposes is just BS. -> For example (Stablecoin reserves must be kept 1:1 with USD/treasuries) Tether has 100k+ Bitcoin (as per CEO last year conference) and were a net buyer in 2025. With the act the main buyers like Tether would probably be a forced sellers 2026-2027 with their $180b-ish stablecoin MC since they have a lot of illiquid assets like farms in South America while their 100k+ Bitcoin is liquid. -> Stablecoin yield This is extremely destructive if exchanges and fintechs were not able to give yield off stablecoin and other deposits. An enormous of liquidity would flow out of crypto. There’s also different clauses around exchange rules regarding USD collateral + banks in flow of funds + national cftc licenses that would likely blow up a lot of exchanges/dexs/fintechs tops and harm altcoins. There’s just way too many poison pill clauses that just kills off any non-bank fintech/crypto company. Eg. Making banks an effective monopoly. But can explain in another post. 2. Silver liquidity nuke. This was CME + exchange margin hikes to unreasonable levels to force liquidation cascades, with a “hawkish” fed chair as a narrative excuse. Other VCs were claiming some Asian firm blew up and were forced to liquidate a bitcoin from the silver trade but it’s all multifaceted, likely stemming from above two. Almost zero mainstream media reporting over changes to percentages and 6+ hikes. Just blaming the fed chair. This also trickled into anything high beta in the stock market but looks like an isolated crash. But basically, nobody can report that the Clarity Act is a poison pill nuking crypto because of bank lobbying and that the CME margin hikes (to force Silver liquidations). Bessent and the Us gov would just go after them if they did lol. So nobody in retail knows and are being gaslit that “Clarity Act” is a good thing for crypto. When in reality US gov is just doing everything to strengthen the dollar + bank monopoly from their lobbying while blowing up crypto in the process. (Which makes sense if I’m the government, I’m just citing the honest repercussions) That being said Bitcoin at these levels feels like free real estate and I expect the asset + crypto companies that applied for bank charters in specific to recover.
-
回顾光子学供应链上游 $AXTI 的20倍涨幅及持有难度。
当时没多少散户真正了解光子学的极端扩张。甚至 $LITE 都极不引人注目。因此，一路追溯到 $AXTI，在他们仍受出口管制禁令时买入并全程持有，需要极大的信念。但错过了那20倍的涨幅确实很遗憾。
英文原文
not many too many retail really knew about the extreme photonics ramp back then. Even $LITE was extremely under the radar. So going all the way upstream to $AXTI while they were still export control banned + holding through it all would take a lot of conviction. But yeah sucks to miss out on that 20x
-
Neocloud板块卖空多为对冲，基本面强劲时无需过度关注。
从 $IREN 到 $WULF 的 Neocloud 板块的卖空兴趣(SI) 主要是可转换票据对冲，而非真正的做空。当然，像 Hedgeye 这样的机构也在增加 $NBIS 的 SI 数据，因此很难得知实际数字。话虽如此，如果基本面强劲，我其实不太在意 SI。
英文原文
Short interest from Neocloud sector from $IREN to $WULF are mostly convertible note hedging, not actual shorts. Of course there’s firms like Hedgeye adding to that number for $NBIS SI so it’s hard to know the actual figure. That being said don’t really care too much about SI if fundamentals are strong.
-
澄清NBIS产能与基建概念，指出市场担忧其融资稀释。
我认为这是将他们对主动产能（已满负荷，意味着 $NBIS 需求旺盛）的表述，与他们正在建设的 2.5GW 签约管道及基础设施混为一谈了。不过我们拭目以待，$NBIS 上次意外获得了 $META 的合同，但市场显然不喜欢其伴随的 ATM（自动取款机融资）/稀释效应。
英文原文
I think that’s conflating their words for active capacity (maxed out, meaning $NBIS has high demand) with the 2.5GW contracted pipeline + infrastructure they’re building out. But we’ll see, $NBIS had a surprise $META contract last time but markets clearly didn’t like the ATM/dilution.
-
基于排除法看好$NBIS财报，预计其多业务线高增长，建议财报期间持有。
在看到 $IREN 财报未披露新的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)交易后， 又看到超大规模客户的资本支出(capex)呈指数级增长： -> 通过排除法，$NBIS 在财报中“有所准备”的可能性越来越大。 过去几周的几个简版(TLDR)利好因素： - 旧款GPU价格大幅上涨（见前文）。有利于资产负债表 - GPU供应断崖式下跌（需求激增） - 超大规模客户资本支出激增（很大一部分被归因于数据中心DCs） - $NBIS 本季度可能已通过2500万股的按需发行(ATM)计划，希望稀释的尽头已现。 - Clickhouse以150亿美元估值融资（接近母公司估值） - “Uber不再自主研发Robotaxi”，转而依赖Avride（Nebius子公司）等合作伙伴 前景看好。 随着股价重置至92美元，如果Nebius仍有望在年底实现70-90亿美元ARR（同比增长700%+），财报期间应持有多头仓位。 当然，我预计大部分增长将在2026年下半年至明年一季度发生，届时50亿美元的建设资本支出将转化为80亿美元的中位营收+自由现金流(FCF)。 持有 $NBIS 基本上等于持有5家公司，每家都保持三位数同比增长，等待估值反映分部加总(Sum of Parts)+增长。
英文原文
After seeing $IREN report earnings with no new hyperscaler deals. And seeing hyperscaler capex exponentially increasing: -> It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination. Few other TLDR tailwinds past few weeks: - Older GPUs have massively increased in price (see previous). Better for balance sheet - GPU availability dropped off the roof (increased demand) - Hyperscaler capex spend blowout (a large portion was cited for DCs) - $NBIS likely went through the 25M share ATM this quarter so hopefully the end of dilution is in sight. - Clickhouse raising at $15B valuation (getting close to main company valuation) - “Uber is not returning to developing its own robotaxis” and relying on partners like Avride (Nebius subsidiary) Things are looking good. With the price reset to $92, if Nebius is still on track for $7-9B ARR EOY (700%+ y/y), should be a positive hold through earnings. Of course I expect most of the ramp to happen H2 2026 to Q1 next year as the $5B in buildout capex spend converts to recognized $8B midpoint revenue + FCF. With $NBIS, you’re basically holding 5 companies, each growing triple digits Y/Y and waiting for valuation to reflect Sum of Parts + growth.
-
批评Burry做空PLTR仅凭技术分析，无视基本面。
@michaeljburry 我现在确信这家伙只是运气好，在看到他发布的 $PLTR 图表后做空了顶部。 完全没有提及基本面，只是引用了洗发水技术分析（Shampoo TA）作为 $PLTR 暴跌的原因。 我不持有 Palantir，但这纯粹是占星术。
英文原文
@michaeljburry Now I’m convinced this guy just got lucky shorting the top after seeing his posted chart for $PLTR. Zero mentions of fundamentals, just cited an shampoo TA for the reason of $PLTR crashing. I don’t own Palantir but this is just astrology.
-
AXTI因铟价飙升及垂直整合优势，有望成光子学核心瓶颈并重估。
$AXTI - 7N高纯度铟价格突破1000美元，且过去三个月呈抛物线式上涨。 这是价格上涨的衍生反映。 有两个细微差别： 1. 这是当地上海金属市场(SMM)的定价（中国控制着70%以上的供应链）。 从$GOOGL到META的超大规模云服务商可能正在为此支付高额溢价（转嫁给$LITE或其他公司）。 2. 这是磷化铟(InP)衬底的原料。 InP衬底 = $AXTI 和住友电工(Sumitomo)。 原料 = $AXTI 和 Vital。 前驱体价格上涨会损害住友电工的底线 -> $LITE / $COHR -> 下游。 但AXT作为两个不同层面的瓶颈，在原料/精炼层面实现垂直整合，因此两次受益。 正如$GOOGL的财报所示，随着其1800多亿美元的资本支出，光子学的建设即将呈抛物线式增长。而且就在现在。 我对$AXTI的论点是 -> 像内存公司（如$SNDK、$MU、SK海力士）一样涨价，并作为光子学建设的核心瓶颈获得重估。 不再是三大巨头，而是两家（AXT/住友）。随着日本面临出口管制带来的上游材料问题，最终可能只剩一家。 与内存产品相比，价格上涨的可见度较低。 但我们可以在SMM上的7N铟等衍生品中看到这种潜在反映。
英文原文
$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months. This is a derivative reflection of price hikes. There's two nuances: 1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain). Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others). 2. This is feedstock to InP substrates. InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo. Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital. Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream. But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level. As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now. My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout. Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls. There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products. But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve like 7N indium on SMM.
-
CRDO发布初步营收以稳股价，正式财报3月2日披露。
@AI_PowerFlow 初步营收数据，大概只是为了阻止 $CRDO 进一步暴跌。他们通常不会这么做。 正式财报将于3月2日发布。
英文原文
@AI_PowerFlow Preliminary revenue, probably just to stop $CRDO from tanking further. They don't typically do this. Actual report comes out March 2nd.
-
CRDO财报大超预期，中期恐慌被夸大，逢低买入机会显著。
想象一下，当 $CRDO 跌至 $95（市值 $170 亿）时陷入恐慌。如果你在那时买入，在今天初步财报(ER)发布后的一周内，收益将超过 52.6%。中期担忧被夸大了。今年营收同比增长 200%+。Q3 2026 指引从 $3.4 亿上调至 $4.06 亿（大幅超预期）。话虽如此，光子学转换带来的长期风险依然存在（因为这是中期指引）。不过，Credo 未来仍将是 AI 建设的重要组成部分，只是失去了其默认的“领导者”地位。跌至 $95 的抛售可能是今年最大的逢低买入机会之一。
英文原文
Imagine panicking with $CRDO at $95 ($17B MC). If you bought then it would be a 52.6%+ gain in a week after today's preliminary ER. Mid-term fears were overblown. 200%+ YoY revenue growth for this year. $340M guidance -> $406M (huge beat) for Q3 2026 guidance. That being said, long term risks are still with photonics transitions (since this is medium term guidance). But, Credo will be a core part of the AI buildout in the future, it just loses it's defacto "leader" status. The selloff to $95 was may have been one of the biggest dip-buying opportunities this year.
-
祝粉丝早日康复并询问食品股做空建议
@jukan05 祝你早日康复！顺便问一下，根据你的新经历，哪家食品公司可能是不错的做空标的？
英文原文
@jukan05 Hope you get well soon! On a side note, what food company might be a good short from your new experience?
-
博主幽默回应被其他博主@提及，表示乐在其中。
@memely @YieldCurveBalI @kingtutcap @EricTheUmpire 在这些帖子中被@是一件很有趣的事。请继续保持！
英文原文
@memely @YieldCurveBalI @kingtutcap @EricTheUmpire I have a fun time getting tagged in these posts. Keep it up!
-
博主感谢互动并表示将深入研究AUR和SILC。
@canbilgeyilmaz 谢谢，我会对 $AUR 和 $SILC 做更多研究。
英文原文
@canbilgeyilmaz Thank you, I’ll do more research into $AUR and $SILC
-
小仓位持有AEVA押注4D AI及CPO技术突破，虽无大量现金流但值得冒险。
~14.1美元。基本上就是当前的价格水平。 话虽如此，这是一个小仓位，因为 $AEVA 本质上是对 4D AI 的风险投资式押注。据报道，他们还利用相同技术在共封装光学(CPO)领域取得了突破。 它不像 $RDDT 那样产生大量的自由现金流(FCF)，但我认为值得冒这个险。
英文原文
~$14.1. So basically where prices are now. That being said this is a small position since $AEVA company is inherently a venture bet on 4D AI. They also made a breakthrough for CPO using the same technology apparently. It’s not generating massive FCF like $RDDT, but decided it was worth the risk.
-
AEVA凭借确定性速度数据优势，降低世界模型计算负载。
世界*模型。显然，如果世界上最先进的世界模型需要多普勒级别的精度，与$OUST相比，$AEVA是少数能做到这一点的公司之一？如果你给Cosmos提供“概率性”深度数据（来自$OUST），模型必须消耗大量计算周期来计算物体的移动位置。$AEVA直接输入确定性速度数据。“如果模型必须从连续深度帧中推断运动，那比直接接收速度作为输入需要更多的计算。”
英文原文
World* models. Apparently if the world's most advanced World Models require Doppler-level precision, $AEVA is one of the only companies that can do it compared to companies to $OUST here? If you give Cosmos "probabilistic" depth data (from $OUST ) the model has to spend massive amounts of compute cycles calculating where things are moving. $AEVA just feeds in deterministic velocity data. “If a model has to infer motion from sequential depth frames, that’s additional computation versus receiving velocity as a direct input”
-
对比OUST与AEVA技术路线，探讨OUST作为4D AI投资标的的逻辑。
显然，$OUST 更偏向于“概率性 AI (Probabilistic AI)”，而 $AEVA 的调频连续波(FMCW)技术解决的是词元模型(word models)所需的确定性物理 AI (Deterministic Physical AI)。 “FMCW 通过多普勒频移直接提供速度这一物理测量值，而飞行时间(ToF)技术则需要跨帧进行计算推导”。 也许你可以帮忙阐述一下 $OUST 的细微差别，以及为什么你认为它是更好的 4D AI 投资标的。
英文原文
Apparently $OUST sits more in “Probabilistic AI”while $AEVA FMCW solves the Deterministic Physical AI that word models need “FMCW gives velocity as a direct physical measurement (Doppler shift) versus ToF requiring computational derivation across frames”. Maybe you can help articulate the nuance with $OUST and why you think it’s better exposure to 4D AI