2026-02-25 · 供应链分析

解析光子学上游供应链，看好AXTI与IQE但提示IQE稀释风险。

涉及标的： $AVGO $AXTI $COHR $FN $GOOGL $IQE $LITE $MRVL $MTSI

中文翻译

我是最早将 $AXTI 与光子学(BOM)/供应链联系起来的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模ASIC的光子学流程，大概是这样（很可能，但未披露）：光模块(最高BOM)： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工制造) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant optical 供应链： ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学BOM/涨价的“登月型”股票，更上游的光子学BOM：$AXTI, $IQE 是你的方向。 $AXTI 之前基本面很差，但最近的Northland融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 现在基本面很差（净债务2350万英镑）但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，我不惊讶它会仅因inp业务就大幅上涨。有1800万英镑可转换票据（这几乎没什么），然后是1.2亿到1.54亿新股（~12%到15%），相对于当前规模也几乎没什么。另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值1.3亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像Wolfspeed那样。所以巨大、巨大的风险，请自行研究风险。但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。

英文原文

Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains: $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers. Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed): Optical Transceivers (highest BOM): Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU Merhcant optical supply chain: ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go. $AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run. $IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business. There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size. On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established. TLDR: $IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway. But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks. But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).

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