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韩国指数由三星和SK海力士驱动，盈利强劲，类比台积电具长期做多价值。
$KOSPI 和 $EWY，人们不应该试图对韩国指数进行技术分析(TA)或将其与白银等资产进行比较。 韩国指数正处于价格发现阶段，主要由两只股票带动： 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和麦格理(Macquarie)对其营业利润的预测如下： 三星(Samsung) 2026年：约1820亿 - 2108亿美元 2027年：约2351亿 - 3337亿美元 SK海力士(SK Hynix)： 2026年：约1329亿 - 1905亿美元 2027年：约1670亿 - 3128亿美元 如果SK海力士的估值为5000亿美元，而其2026和2027财年的预测营业利润为5100亿美元。 这看起来简直荒谬。（右侧为麦格理的多头情景预测） 我可能会更倾向于参考摩根士丹利的预测（这更加务实），但核心观点依然成立：这些公司的盈利能力极强。 如果三星未来交易价格达到2.5万亿美元（目前为1万亿美元），我也不会感到惊讶。 它给人的感觉就像两年前的 $TSM 一样，看起来是一个显而易见的做多机会。
英文原文
$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea’s index is something people shouldn’t try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver. SK index is in price discovery mode as it’s carried by two stocks: Whose operating profit projections from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are: Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B - ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B - ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B - ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B - ~$312.8B USD If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B. It just looks silly. (From Macquarie's bull case projections on the right) I’d probably go off Morgan Stanley projections instead (which is a lot more grounded) but the point still stands that these companies are just so profitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now). It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.
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博主回应Reddit粉丝，提及因负面评论暂停发帖。
@RancicYaro4064 很高兴很多来自 $RDDT 的人在这里找到了我！在那里发布 $TE 和 $ETH 的迷因帖很有趣。之前关于 $AXTI 的帖子引发了太多负面评论，尽管该股最终翻了三倍，所以我之后就没怎么发帖了，哈哈。
英文原文
@RancicYaro4064 I’m glad a lot of people from $RDDT found me here! It’s been fun posting $TE and $ETH meme ta posts on there. Just got too much negativity from my $AXTI post which ended up tripling so haven’t really posted since lol
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推荐$XLU作为电网现代化受益标的，提示注意隐含波动率定价。
$XLU 是我看好能源/电网现代化、降息预期以及推理/训练大规模用量的首选多头标的。进入这些交易无需匆忙，公用事业和电力板块通常像恐龙一样移动缓慢。但如果你进行大幅跳跃式建仓，请确保隐含波动率(IV)定价在 14-16% 的正确区间，而非虚高的行权价。
英文原文
$XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training. There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.
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EWJ比EWY更分散，建议利用ETF做方向性杠杆而非博弈波动率。
$EWJ 相比 $EWY 的分散度更高，后者基本上只有三星和 SK 海力士两家公司。我认为日本和台湾 ETF 的隐含波动率(IV)定价合理。如果你要介入这些标的，应该更多是为了方向性的杠杆，而不是 Vega 扩张，因为内存超级周期带来的 Vega 扩张是独一无二的。
英文原文
$EWJ is more diversified compared to $EWY which is basically two companies in Samsung and SK Hynix. I think IV is reasonably priced for Japan and Taiwan ETFs. If you’re entering those it should be more for leverage on direction rather than Vega expansion, which was one of a kind from the memory supercycle
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LITE 深度绑定 Google TPU，ASIC 放量预期在 2027-2028 年。
$LITE 与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目直接相关，约占物料清单(BOM)价值的 8-12%。其他超大规模云计算提供商的专用集成电路(ASIC)占比可能仅为低个位数百分比。Google 大幅上调了资本支出(Capex)预测数字。市场假设这将惠及 $LITE。我认为你不应该基于 60% 来自 ASIC 放量等任意数字进行建模。大部分光子学/ASIC 的放量预计发生在 2027 年末至 2028 年，市场目前只是在提前交易这一预期。我在股价再次翻倍前的研究论文中做过原始估值计算，最近没有更新。
英文原文
$LITE is directly tied to $GOOGL TPU programs and is ~8-12% of BOM value Other hyperscaler ASICs is likely low single digit %. Google hiked projected capex numbers a lot. And the assumption is that trickles down into $LITE. I don’t think you should model based on arbitrary numbers figures like 60% should be off asic ramp. Majority of photonics/asic ramp is expected to happen late 2027 into 2028, and markets are just frontrunning that now. I did the original valuation math in my thesis before it doubled again, haven’t done it recently.
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分享AXTI持仓两月涨283%，并提及NVDA财报后的高飞股抛售。
@AvivaMarket 也许是因为即便算上今天的跌幅，本月涨幅也已达 102%？ 我持有的 $AXTI 仓位在过去两个月仍上涨了 283%。 除了健康的回调外，在 $NVDA 财报发布后，许多高飞股出现了抛售。 https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
英文原文
@AvivaMarket Maybe because it just went up 102% this month even accounting for the drop today? Still up 283% in the last two months on one of my $AXTI positions. Healthy correction aside there was a selloff in a lot of high flying names after $NVDA earnings. https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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解析散热瓶颈及$AEHR通过高温压力测试提升良率的逻辑。
其中的细微差别在于有两点。一是散热管理瓶颈（液冷、铜线寿命延长等）。 $AEHR 处于半导体良率的制造环节。利用热量进行压力测试，以发现可能导致早期失效的潜在缺陷单元。 由于芯片在极端高温下运行，导致早期寿命失效的缺陷风险很高。因此，他们需要在极端高温下测试每一颗芯片。
英文原文
So the nuance is that there's two. One is thermal management bottlenecks (liquid cooling, copper life extension, etc). $AEHR sits in the manufacturing side for semi yield. Heat is used to stress test to see potential defective units for early failure. Since chips run at extreme temperatures, a defect causing early life failure is high. So they need to test every chip at extreme heat.
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博主澄清笔误，认为误打的词组听起来更酷
@platochi 我本意是想说“Alpha 存在于内部”，是个笔误！但“Alive 存在于内部”听起来真的很酷
英文原文
@platochi I meant to say Alpha lives within, typo! But Alive lives within sounds really cool
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博主解释简化 $AEHR 术语科普的原因，并认同其规模化潜力。
谢谢！我经常看到关于 $AEHR 的问题。尤其是因为像“Fox-XP”或“碳化硅和氮化镓功率半导体”这样的术语。我觉得大多数 X 用户会觉得很难理解，所以想让它对读者来说更容易消化。同意它在未来几年有规模化潜力。
英文原文
Appreciate it! I kept seeing a questions pop up around $AEHR. Especially because of jargon like "Fox-XP" or "silicon carbide and gallium nitride power semiconductors". Felt like majority of X would have a hard time, so wanted to make it more digestible for readers. Agreed that it has potential for scale over the few years.
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勿仅凭短期图表判断，应关注基本面，当前仅为健康回调。
看看财报、资本支出(capex)预测和运营数据，我不明白你仅凭 $SPY 的图表和 $NVDA 开盘后几小时的走势是如何得出所有结论的。某处总会有牛市，尤其是在亚洲市场/超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的资本支出流向中。这只是一次健康的回调。如果你感到不安，也许这表明你投资组合中公司的权重配置有误。
英文原文
Look at earnings, capex projections, and operational data, I'm not sure how you got all of that just by looking at the chart of $SPY and few hour movement from $NVDA at open. There's always a bull market somewhere, especially within Asian markets/hyperscaler capex flows. This is just a healthy correction. If you're uncomfortable, maybe it's an indicator weightings of companies in your portfolio is wrong.
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点评AEHR获AI量产订单及NVDA引发的市场波动。
我并没有交易它，但它的波动性确实很大。考虑到 $NVDA 引发了全面的抛售，你的入场时机把握得很好。至于 $AEHR，他们终于度过了 $POET 的研发阶段，今年开始获得超大规模云服务商/AI 公司的量产订单。所以想简单写一下关于它的分析。
英文原文
I haven't been trading it, but it's really volatile. You did time it well considering $NVDA caused a selloff across the board. As for, $AEHR they've finally gotten past that $POET R&D stage and hitting hyperscaler/AI company production orders this year. So just wanted to do a tiny write-up about it.
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解析$AEHR作为AI芯片热测试瓶颈解决者，正从研发转向量产，受益于巨头资本开支周期。
更简明的 $AEHR 概览 - 11 亿美元（无行话）。这是我的一个多头持仓： 在 AI 领域，散热是一个已知的瓶颈。 随着新一代 $NVDA 或 $AMD 类型的芯片发热量增加，如果一颗芯片熔毁，将是灾难性的。 因此科技巨头 -> 对每一颗芯片进行热应力测试，以查看其是否会在现场过早失效。 $AEHR 出售用于测试这些芯片的机器。 去年，他们类似于 $POET（处于预认证/测试阶段） -> 但现在他们已经通过了认证。 我们正看到从研发到大规模生产的拐点： 今天： -> $AEHR 获得 1400 万美元的芯片老化系统（wafer level）订单，以帮助扩大芯片生产。 但这台 1400 万美元的机器每周只能处理有限数量的晶圆。 -> 随着该 AI 客户扩大规模，他们将物理上耗尽热测试吞吐量。 因此，如果他们喜欢 $AEHR，就会购买更多，从而推动收入增长。 他们还有一个独立的产品线（Sonoma），用于测试封装后的芯片。 超大规模云服务商一直在订购此产品，因此有两个不同的测试阶段，两条收入来源。 管理层指引 2026 年下半年新增订单为 6000 万至 8000 万美元（这是巨大的增长）。 你可以参考 $TER（510 亿美元）或爱德万测试（约 1250 亿美元）来看看这类公司能有多大。 他们还在其他数据中心层进行测试： - 他们正在与 NAND Flash 内存供应商合作 - 硅光子学 我尽量去除了大部分技术行话，以便大多数人更容易理解，但这确实是一个微妙/技术性的领域。 $AEHR 具有潜力，因为它在多年的研发和认证后，现在开始实现真实规模的量产。 我们正处于一个巨大的资本支出周期中（想想 $ASML 的周期，人们为建设订购大量机器）。
英文原文
A simpler overview of $AEHR - $1.1B (without the jargon). One of my long positions: With AI, thermal is a known bottleneck. With new gen $NVDA or $AMD type chips that gets hot, if one chip melts down, it's a disaster. So tech giants -> every single chip stress tested with heat to see if it fails prematurely in the field. $AEHR sells the machines that does the testing of these chips. Last year, they were like $POET (pre-qualification/test phase) -> but now they've passed. We're seeing that inflection from R&D to mass production: Today: -> $14M order for $AEHR burn-in systems to help scale chip production (wafer level) But that $14M machine order can only handle a finite number of wafers per week. -> As this AI customer scales up, they will physically run out of thermal testing throughput. so they buy more if they like $AEHR, and this ramps up revenue. They also have a separate product line (Sonoma) for testing chips after they're packaged. Hyperscalers have been ordering this, so two different testing stages, two revenue streams. Management guided for a massive second half 2026 $60M to $80M in new bookings (which is big growth). You can look at $TER ($51B) or Advantest (~$125B) to see the ceiling of how big a lot of these companies can get. They also do testing across other data center layers too: - So they're working with NAND Flash memory suppliers - Silicon photonics Tried to strip out as much technical jargon as possible so it's more understandable to majority, but it's a very nuanced/technical field. $AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification. And we're sitting in an enormous capex cycle (think $ASML cycles, where people order a lot of machines for the buildout).
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强调股价与基本面脱节，通过运营指标寻找错杀机会。
$CRCL... 三周内已反弹53%。 $54 是最佳的买入时机，而不是财报后涨幅超50%的时候。 有时很难逆着市场情绪操作。 但例如： $CRCL - 尽管股价暴跌，USDC 流通供应量仍是我关注的顶级指标之一。 $AXTI - 7N InP 在 SMM 上非标准化。 生存法则：股价与运营指标之间的脱节。 有时，股价可能反映一种情况，但财报和现实却是另一种。
英文原文
$CRCL... is now back up 53% in 3 weeks. $54 was the best chance to buy, not 50%+ later after earnings. Really hard to go against the sentiment sometimes. But for example, on: $CRCL - USDC circulating supply one of the top indicators I looked at despite the stock price tanking. $AXTI - 7N InP nonstandard on SMM. Alive lives within: the disconnect between stock prices and operational indicators. Sometimes, stock prices might reflect one thing, but the earnings and reality are another.
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NVDA回调属健康调整，AI投资核心仍看台积电与云厂商资本开支。
我目前只是持有仓位，仍在四处寻找机会。发这条推文只是不想让大家因为 $NVDA 下跌 5% 就觉得世界末日到了。这是健康的回调，在我看来，AI 交易中最重要的是关注 $TSM 和超大规模云服务商( Hyperscaler )的资本支出(capex)，而这些数据我们都有了。
英文原文
I'm just sitting on positions, still shopping around. Just wanted to make a post so people don't think the world is over because $NVDA dropped 5%. Healthy correction, most important thing to look out for with the AI trade is $TSM / Hyperscaler capex IMO and we already have those.
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对比三星与SK海力士2027年盈利预测及极低估值。
以下是摩根士丹利(MS) / 麦格理(Macquarie) 对 2026-2027 年的预测盈利。三星(Samsung) 2026年：约 1820 亿美元 vs. 约 2108 亿美元；2027年：约 2351 亿美元 vs. 约 3337 亿美元。SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 2026年：约 1329 亿美元 vs. 约 1905 亿美元；2027年：约 1670 亿美元 vs. 约 3128 亿美元。因此，三星 2027 年市盈率(P/E) 约为 3.7 倍，SK 海力士约为 2.2 倍。
英文原文
These are projected earnings for 2026-2027 from MS / Macquarie. Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD So roughly 2027 3.7x P/E for Samsung and 2.2x P/E SK Hynix.
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英伟达财报虽超预期但股价跌，长期看AI加速，应关注云厂商资本开支。
$NVDA 远超预期，预计营收780亿美元，高于预期的720亿美元。 该股在财报发布后下跌4.82%。 这是一个有争议的观点，但在我看来，英伟达的财报是一个部分滞后指标。 最需要关注的是超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出(Capex)预测以及 $TSM 的预测。 市场倾向于认为 $SNDK 等存储芯片、来自 $TSM 的半导体、电力/电网等其他板块，将主要依据上述两项指标涨跌，因为它们代表了整个人工智能(AI)行业。特别是随着从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN 的超大规模云服务商纷纷加速构建其专用集成电路(ASIC)（除英伟达外）。 英伟达大幅超预期仅仅是已实现的确认，表明人工智能交易可能会加速。 短期流动性和做市商(MM)头寸影响周度价格，但长期来看，情况似乎将进一步加速。
英文原文
$NVDA blows away expectations, with $78B in revenue projected vs. $72B. The stock dropped 4.82% on the earnings. Controversial opinion but Nvidia earnings is a partially lagging indicator to me. The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections. Markets like $SNDK in memory, semis from $TSM, power/grid and others are likely to rise/fall based on those two in specific as they represent the entire AI sector as a whole. Especially as hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN rush out to build their on ASICs (apart from Nvidia) Nvidia beating by a wide margin is just realized confirmation that the AI trade is likely to accelerate. Short term liquidity and MM positioning affect weekly prices, but long term, things look to accelerate even further.
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分析 $LITE 作为光子供应链龙头的反转潜力，同时提示债务与稀释风险。
并非建议投资，我已多次强调其净债务高企，且因稀释效应而具有内在风险，此处仅分享我认为其有趣的原因。除此之外，它是全球上游光子供应链中最大的外延晶圆(epiwafer)晶圆厂之一，也是 $LITE 的知名供应商。另一家领导者是台湾的 Landmark，其市值为 38.5 亿美元，可作为基准，因此我认为存在反转潜力。
英文原文
Not telling people to invest, I’ve already maintained multiple times its net debt and inherently risky due to dilution and just sharing why I found it interesting. That aside, they’re one of the largest epiwafer fabs in the world for upstream photonic supply chains and a known $LITE supplier. The other leader is Landmark over in Taiwan and it’s sitting at $3.85B as a benchmark, so I do think there’s a turnaround potential.
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确认某标的为场外交易版本。
@RJCcapital 是的，看起来像是场外交易(OTC)版本。
英文原文
@RJCcapital Yeah looks like the OTC version.
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警告某标的因债务和稀释存在风险，并更正代工定义。
这不是个好主意，由于净债务和潜在的稀释效应，其本身具有风险。 我只是分享我的思考过程，但每个人的风险承受能力不同，所以请务必自行研究。 另外更正一下：最大的外包*外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂。像 $COHR 这样的公司是垂直整合的。
英文原文
Not a good idea, it’s inherently risky due to net debt and potential dilution. I’m just sharing my thought process but risk-tolerance is different for everyone so make sure to do your own research Also a correction: largest outsourced* epiwafer foundry. Companies like $COHR are vertically integrated
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IQE 重组后有望对标 Landmark 实现大幅重估，是超大规模云厂商光子学供应链的二元高赔率标的。
如果要在 $AXTI 之后只选一只 10 倍股，那可能是 $IQE。 我的思考过程简版： - 最接近的对比是台湾的 LandMark Optoelectronics（用于外延片 epiwafers）。其估值约为 38 亿美元。 - $LITE <- $IQE 是已知关系，且 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 和超大规模云厂商 ASIC 的已知供应商。 - IQE 是全球最大的外延片晶圆代工企业，估值仅为 1.5 亿美元。 - 为什么 Landmark 估值 38 亿而 IQE 仅 1.5 亿？$IQE 有 2350 万英镑净债务和 1800 万英镑可转换票据。以及传统智能手机射频业务的拖累。 - Landmark 是磷化铟 (InP) 外延片的纯概念股，其估值展示了 IQE 的潜力。 - 所以当你看净债务 + 可转换票据……4100 万英镑基本上就是零钱？尤其对于超大规模云厂商供应链而言。 - Landmark 有 27 到 30 台 MOCVD 反应器。IQE 运营超过 100 台。 - $IQE 需要做的就是重组（他们正在做），出售拖累业务将消除债务。并专注于光子学供应链，其产能远超台湾同行，这将证明重新估值的合理性。 基本上，如果你看一个规模更小（但更纯粹的 $IQE 版本 Landmark），其估值接近 IQE 当前业务的 25 倍。 downside 是你会被稀释到虚无，但 4100 万英镑对超大规模云厂商来说感觉没什么？ 所以这是一个基于 $IQE 在超大规模云厂商光子学供应链中的重要性，因重新估值而产生的二元非对称性“登月”选择。
英文原文
If I had to pick a 10x return-stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE. My thought process TLDR: - Closest comparison would be Taiwan's LandMark Optoelectronics for epiwafers. It's valued at ~$3.8B. - $LITE <- $IQE is a known relation, and $LITE is a known supplier to $GOOGL TPUs and hyperscaler ASICs. - IQE is the largest epiwafer foundry in the world, valued at $150M. - Why is Landmark valued at $3.8B vs. $150M? $IQE has -£23.5 million net debt and £18M convertible notes. And drag from legacy smartphone RF. - Landmark is pure play for InP epiwafer and just an idea to what it could be valued at. - So when you go look at net debt + convertibles... £41M is basically pennies? Especially to a hyperscaler supply chain. - Landmark has 27 to 30 MOCVD reactors. IQE operates over 100. - All $IQE needs to do is restructure (which they're doing now), selling off their drag will remove debt. And focusing on the photonics supply chain with much more capacity than their Taiwan counterparty would warrant rerating. Basically, if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business. The downside is you get diluted to oblivion, but the £41M feels kinda like nothing to hyperscalers? So this is a binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics.
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认为$EWY隐含波动率被低估，因存储超级周期将带来巨大波动。
我真心认为做市商错误定价了 $EWY 2028 年的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)，因为它本质上是对三星/SK海力士的看涨期权。 并非每天都能看到一个“非波动性”指数在 45% 的 IV 下每日波动 7%。 相比之下，它比以 55% IV 交易的 $MRVL 波动性大得多（仅比较两者的图表）。 像 Jane Street 这样的做市商可能正在定价均值回归（回到无聊的 5-10 年停滞期），但由于存储超级周期，这种情况永远不会发生。 或者是 ETF 再平衡，这通过传递结构无意中导致了对 SK 海力士和三星的更多集中。 大多数 2 年后的虚值(OTM)行权价在短短 2 个月内就变成了实值(ITM)。 随着 10 倍杠杆的 SK 海力士/三星或 2 倍杠杆 ETF 起飞，还有大量未实现的未来波动性。 如果 IV 保持低位，你可以让看涨期权以低溢价轻松突破行权价。
英文原文
I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day. For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs) Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle. Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.
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分享 $NVDA 投资者从20万本金获利830万的案例，强调选对赢家的重要性。
真令人惊叹，竟然有人通过 $NVDA 获得了 $830 万 的收益。他们的初始投资：约 $20 万。如果你选对了赢家，市场可以轻松改变人生并造就新百万富翁。
英文原文
It's really amazing that there's people out there with $8.3M gains on $NVDA. Their initial investment: ~$200K. Markets can easily change lives and mint new millionaires if you choose the right winner. https://t.co/0HL93Fd6NJ
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IQE对西方供应链关键，结果呈二元性。
@CigCapital 我确实提到过 $IQE，它可能成为大牛股，也可能因稀释而成为灾难。这看起来像是一个二元事件，但他们对西方供应链和 $LITE 至关重要。
英文原文
@CigCapital I did mention $IQE which could be a potential banger or dilution disaster. Seems like a binary event here but they were pretty critical to Western supply chains and $LITE.
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IQE关联巨头但负债高，属高风险博弈，波动性预计剧烈。
$IQE 是一家市值1.5亿美元的备受关注的公司，我发现了它与 $LITE（Lumentum）和 GOOGL（谷歌）之间的联系！不过，其资产负债表相当糟糕，处于净债务（Net Debt）状态。尽管如此，这更像是一场“孤注一掷的赌局”，即它在收发器(Transceiver)或超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)供应链中的重要性，是否能抵消其糟糕的财务状况。顺便说一句，这只股票的波动性（Volatility）看起来会和 $AXTI 一样剧烈！
英文原文
$IQE は時価総額1億5,000万ドルの注目銘柄で, $LITE （ルメンタム）や GOOGL（グーグル）との繋がりを見つけました！ただ、バランスシートはかなりボロボロで実質有利子負債（ネットデット）の状態です。とはいえ、トランシーバーやハイパースケーラーのサプライチェーンにおける重要性が、財務状況の悪さを上回るかどうかの「一か八かの賭け」といったところですね。 それはそうと、この銘柄も $AXTI と同じくらいボラティリティ（価格変動）が激しくなりそうです！
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ALMU量子点尚早，建议关注超大规模数据中心供应链瓶颈。
@Racetoamilly 恕我直言，$ALMU 和量子点(Quantum Dot)技术可能还要几年才能落地。也许关注超大规模数据中心(Hyperscaler)供应链中现有的瓶颈环节会更好。
英文原文
@Racetoamilly IMO $ALMU and quantum dot is prob a few years out. Probably better to look at existing bottlenecks used in hyperscaler supply chains
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询问何时卖出AXTI股票
@demarscrypto 谢谢 demarscrypto，如果你改变了对 $AXTI 的看法，请告诉我，这样我就知道何时卖出。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Thank you demarscrypto, let me know if you change your mind on $AXTI so I know when to sell.
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博主调侃自己的收益跑赢了某只热门股的3倍杠杆ETF。
@SingularityRes 哈哈，我仍然不敢相信我的收益竟然跑赢了某只股票每天翻绿（上涨）的3倍杠杆ETF。
英文原文
@SingularityRes LOL, I still can’t believe my returns beat the 3x leveraged ETF of a stock going green every day.
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AXTI因光电子供应链瓶颈受追捧，需挖掘多跳连接以发现未定价机会。
如果你听了匿名者的话，$AXTI 现在是不是已经‘上天’了？ 在 $GOOGL 创下资本支出记录后，市场正疯狂寻求光电子（Photonics）供应链的敞口。 如果你问 AI：“AXT 或 IQE 是否属于 Google TPU 供应链”： - 它会说“不”，因为存在被掩盖的多跳连接。 但如果你映射出从： $AXTI ($21亿) -> $IQE ($1.5亿) -> $LITE -> 超大规模客户 ASICs… 的流向，你可能会发现市场尚未定价的早期机会。
英文原文
$AXTI has now reached the Moon if you listened anon? Markets are scrambling to get exposure to photonics supply chains following $GOOGL record capex numbers. If you ask an AI: “Is AXT or IQE part of Google TPU supply chains”: - It will say no due to obscured multi-hop connections. But if you map the flow from: $AXTI ($2.1B) -> $IQE ($150M) -> $LITE -> Hyperscaler ASICs… You might discover something early that markets haven’t priced in.
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指出IQE在伦交所上市，非美股。
@christianoboria 它在伦敦证券交易所上市，不在美国，但涉及 $IQE https://t.co/d9XmdIuUUC
英文原文
@christianoboria It’s in the London Stock Exchange, not US but $IQE https://t.co/d9XmdIuUUC