全部推文
共 6765 条 · 第 122 / 226 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
SK海力士与三星氦气供应安全，市场恐慌错判，属买入机会。
氦气恐慌为 $EWY、KOSPI、台湾和日本制造了引人注目的标题。 这与之前发现韩国巨头安然无恙后的LNG恐慌类似。 然而，底层机制显示，SK海力士和三星等存储厂商（Memory Players）对潜在的氦气中断具有高度免疫力。 SK海力士向路透社发表声明： “已长期确保多元化的供应链和充足的氦气库存。” “因此，公司几乎不可能受到影响。” 三星尚未发表声明，但他们在第四季度财报电话会议中表示： “我们自豪地成为行业内首个开发并部署半导体制造氦气回收系统的公司。” “这使我们能够回收和纯化氦气以供重新部署，每年减少约4.7吨的消耗，并实现约19%的重复使用率。” 三星确认该系统已在生产线上运行，可能保护了其供应链。 当投资者因金永培（Kim Young-bae）关于90%依赖中东进口将导致HBM生产停摆的说法而恐慌时， Volza贸易数据反驳了这一点，但差异可能源于气态与液态氦的分类、转运，或金出于政治效果而夸大其词。 无论如何，这两大韩国巨头似乎已很大程度上确保了其氦气供应链免受中东冲突的影响。 市场抛售的核心盲点在于： 美国不会让其中东冲突阻碍其AI建设。SK海力士和三星正处于这一核心。 美韩技术繁荣协议（US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal）旨在保护先进技术供应链。 尤其是当像SK海力士这样的公司发表明确声明时： 声明公司不可能受氦气影响。 市场正在为氦气/LNG中断的最坏情况定价，但查看这些声明表明这是一个买入机会。
英文原文
The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan. Similar to the LNG panic before finding out the Korean giants were fine. However, the underlying mechanics show the memory players in SK Hynix and Samsung in specific are highly insulated from potential Helium disruption. SK Hynix put out a statement to Reuters: "Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected." Samsung have not put out statements yet, but from their Q4 earnings call they stated: "We are proud to be the first in the industry to develop and deploy a helium reuse system for semiconductor manufacturing" This "enables us to recover and purify helium for redeployment, cutting annual consumption by approximately 4.7 tons and achieving a reuse rate of around 19%" Samsung confirmed that this system is already active on production lines and likely protects their supply chain. When investors panic from headlines around structural exposure due to Kim Young-bae's claims about 90% reliance on Middle Eastern imports shutting down HBM production. The Volza trade data contradicts it, but the discrepancy could be gaseous vs. liquid helium categorization, transshipment, or Kim rounding up for political effect. Regardless, it looks like the two large Korean giants have largely secured their Helium supply chain from conflicts in the Middle East. The core point of the selloff markets are missing: United States will not let their AI buildout stall from Middle East Conflicts. SK Hynix and Samsung are in the center of it all. US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal to protect advanced technology supply chains as well. And especially so, when companies like SK Hynix put out definitive statements: Stating there's no chance the company is affected from helium. Markets are pricing in the worst case scenarios for Helium/LNG disruption but looking at the statements suggest it's a buying opportunity.
-
分析AAOI估值与基本面，建议结合营收和供应链地位而非仅看图表。
如果 $AAOI 股价上涨 100%，并声称明年每月营收将达 3.78 亿美元，这得益于 $META、$MSFT 和 $AMZN 购买其能生产的所有供应品。而它现在的估值为 70 亿美元。我不会只看图表，还会关注营收预测、毛利率、在供应链中的地位以及预测数据。
英文原文
If $AAOI ran up 100% and stated they're doing $378M/month revenue next year off likely $META, $MSFT, and $AMZN buying any supply they can make. And they're valued at $7B now. I wouldn't look at the chart alone, would look at revenue projections, gross margins, position in supply chains, and forecasts.
-
谷歌CTO暗示AI支出激增，澄清市场误判，看好AI基建加速。
@4intheflames $GOOGL 人工智能首席技术官刚刚明确暗示未来8年将增加支出。 https://t.co/zSf77JAHBQ （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： “谷歌数据中心建设规模可能超过1万亿美元” 这对谷歌TPU生态系统1.5万亿美元以上的资本支出意味着什么： 对$LITE、联发科、$AVGO、$TSM、SK海力士、三星等均为广泛利好。 在接受福布斯关于人工智能资本支出的采访时，$GOOGL首席技术官表示： “今年（资本支出）在1750亿至1850亿美元之间，假设不会下降，人们可以想象这在10年内可能延伸到某个巨大的数字。” 福布斯评论道：“谷歌的数据中心野心与OpenAI有着巨大差异：谷歌是一台赚钱机器。” 昨天，市场抛售了OpenAI和$ORCL相关的半导体股票，导致一些“星际之门”相关项目暂停。 市场将OpenAI的成长阵痛与由最富有的超大规模云服务商资助的更广泛的人工智能基础设施建设混为一谈。 从$GOOGL和印钞机般的Mag7角度来看： 人工智能基础设施建设在未来十年看来只会加速。
英文原文
@4intheflames $GOOGL CTO of AI literally just signaled increase spend over the next 8 years. https://t.co/zSf77JAHBQ
-
博主转发或回复其他用户推文，无实质内容。
@Asaf25311430 https://t.co/3q2bj3NgB5
英文原文
@Asaf25311430 https://t.co/3q2bj3NgB5
-
NVDA锁定EML产能，光子学上游材料受制于中国，COWOS/HBM/光子学成瓶颈。
$NVDA 去年锁定了大部分光模块(EML)产能，导致其他超大规模云服务商面临巨大瓶颈。然而，光子学整体是一个材料问题，最上游的材料由中国控制。这并非英伟达能单方面决定的。不过，他们通常是最早布局的，这给 $META、$MSFT、$AMZN、$GOOGL 留下了更多问题，因此本文指出共封装光学(COWOS)、高带宽内存(HBM)和光子学可能是瓶颈。
英文原文
$NVDA secured most of the EML capacity last year and caused a huge bottleneck for other hyperscalers. However, photonics as a whole is a materials problem, the most upstream materials controlled by China. Not exactly something Nvidia can decide. However, they're usually the first to things and that leaves more problems to $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL afterward, hence the point of the post signaling cowos, hbm, and photonics are probably the bottlenecks.
-
指出MRVL在光子学领域的布局，但强调其收入主要依赖ASIC。
@cesarsroy 是的，$MRVL 在光子学领域（如与 Celestial 合作的共封装光学(CPO)）有很多布局。上面应该提到他们的，但我总是把他们和专用集成电路(ASIC)联系在一起，因为那是他们大部分收入的来源，比如 2027 年的 $MSFT Maia。
英文原文
@cesarsroy Yes $MRVL does a lot of stuff in photonics like cpo with celestial. should have included them above, but I always just associate them with asics since that's where majority of their revenue comes from like $MSFT maia in 2027.
-
光模块或随超大规模云厂商锁定产能而结束低价，面临涨价预期。
据我所知，自超大规模云服务商认为800G/1.6T光模块已是大宗商品(commodities)并提前获得批量折扣(volume discounts)以来，价格并未大幅上涨。但这类似于内存(memory)转变为结构性需求，加上超大规模云服务商为保障产能而带来的极端需求。如果看到它们开始涨价，我不会感到惊讶。
英文原文
There haven't been much price hikes to my knowledge since hyperscalers were thinking 800g/1.6T are commodities + getting volume discounts earlier. But similar to memory transforming to something structural + extreme demand from hyperscalers securing capacity. Would not be surprised if we see them start hiking prices.
-
内部人减持是愚蠢指标，应更关注公司业绩指引。
@okayvinay @AlphaOwlTrading 不是？内部人减持(Insider selling)是我见过人们使用的最愚蠢的指标之一。 比起人们是否想获利了结，更应关注公司的业绩指引(company projections)。
英文原文
@okayvinay @AlphaOwlTrading No? Insider selling has got to be one of the dumbest metrics I've ever seen people use. Care more about company projections than if people want to take profits.
-
引用外部链接，无实质文字内容。
此推文仅包含一个引用链接，无实质文字内容可供翻译。
英文原文
@AlphaOwlTrading https://t.co/xGDYTTGU17
-
对于有指引或瓶颈的公司，内部人减持不重要，执行和达成目标才是关键。
如果一家公司提供业绩指引或处于瓶颈环节，内部人减持可能是我关注的最不重要的因素。 $AAOI 给出了 2027 年下半年营收 3.78 亿美元、毛利率约 36-40% 的指引，而其市值为 70 亿美元。 只要他们能执行并达成指引，我不在乎谁在卖出股票。 两个月前我在 Reddit 首次发布 $AXTI（当时约 12 美元）时，也有同样的担忧，而它自那以来已翻了三倍。
英文原文
Insider selling is probably the least material thing I look at if a company gives projections or serves as a bottleneck. $AAOI gave projections of $378M/revenue off ~36-40% gross margins H2 2027 and they're a $7B MC. Don't care if someone sells their shares as long as they execute and hit projections. Same concern was said about $AXTI on Reddit 2 months ago when I first posted it around $12 and it's tripled since then.
-
POET 依赖 MRVL 产品，非瓶颈而是高潜力架构赋能者。
前几天我写了一篇关于 $POET 的小文章。他们目前很大程度上依赖 $MRVL 的 Celestial 产品。根据 Marvell 的财报，Celestial AI 的收入预测为 2028 年 5 亿美元，2029 年 10 亿美元（POET 在 Starlight 的物料清单 BOM 中占比可能约为 10%）。我不认为 $POET 是瓶颈环节，而是一个具有高潜力的架构赋能者。
英文原文
I did a small writeup on $POET the other day. They're largely dependent on $MRVL Celestial right now, and from Marvell earnings, Celestial AI revenue projections were $500m 2028, $1B 2029 (poet ~10% BOM starlight maybe) I don't see $POET as a bottleneck, but high potential architectural enabler.
-
看好AXTI垄断潜力，COHR最安全，AAOI/IQE高弹性，TSEM短期滞涨。
$AXTI 是我的个人最爱，因为其衬底/原料被用于任何光子学瓶颈环节。我只需要有人加入他们的董事会，告诉他们自己是半垄断地位并提价。关于时间框架：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 可能在未来两年因需求激增而迎来高光时刻。由于共封装光学(CPO)的影响，可插拔光模块的指数级增长曲线可能在 2028 年略有放缓，因此对类似中际旭创/新易盛的玩家会更谨慎。$AAOI 自产激光器，所以如果有转型时间，我确信他们会通过认证。简而言之：最安全的是 $COHR，他们业务广泛多元化。最高上行空间可能是 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI，鉴于其起点较小。Soitec 和 $TSEM 有显著上行空间，两年内可能翻倍或翻三倍。但 2026 年可能是死钱。
英文原文
$AXTI is my personal favorite since inp substrate/feedstock is used across any photonics bottleneck. I just need someone to join their board and tell them that they're a semi-monopoly and to price hike. For timeframes: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp. The exponential curve for pluggables probably dwindles a tiny bit in 2028 from cpo? So would be more cautious with innolight/eoptolink type players. $AAOI manufactures their own lasers, so I'm sure they'll get qualified if there's any time for a pivot. TLDR: For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified. Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point. Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years. But probably dead capital for 2026.
-
澄清EWY为存储股，指出NAND涨价超预期但属周期中段，光子学尚早。
不，$EWY 主要包含三星和 SK 海力士，这两家主要是存储芯片厂商。 三星昨日宣布第二季度 NAND 闪存价格上调 100% 以上，而分析师此前普遍预测仅比第一季度增长 5-30%。 NAND/DRAM 是一个独立的瓶颈环节，但我们正处于周期中段（尽管需求可能是结构性的，但季度价格暴涨 100% 的可能性不大）。 光子学(Photonics)仍处于早期阶段。
英文原文
No, $EWY is Samsung/SK Hynix which are primarily memory. Q2 NAND prices were hiked 100%+ by Samsung yesterday while analyst expectations were all projecting 5-30% increases from Q1. NAND/DRAM is a separate bottleneck but we're midcycle (but demand is likely structural, 100%/quarter price hikes, probably not). Photonics is early.
-
超大规模云厂商资本支出未放缓，光学组件产能已满，预示AI光子学瓶颈将至，建议持有。
情绪（如战争/石油/LNG）决定短期价格，基本面决定长期价格。 我看不到那些关键的超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN 等）的资本支出有任何放缓迹象。 而且，在光学组件全面扩产之前，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的所有产能已在涨价前满负荷运转。 当新的 AI 集群架构采用光子学进行扩展时，这就是即将出现的瓶颈的定义。 如果这些公司的基本面没有发生任何破坏性变化，可能最好持有以度过短期波动。
英文原文
Sentiment (eg. War/Oil/LNG) dictates short term prices, fundamentals dictate prices in the long run. I see zero slowdown from the hyperscaler capex that matters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, etc). And before the ramp for optical all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes. This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck when new AI cluster architectures use photonics to scale. If there's been nothing breaking the fundamentals of any of these companies, probably better to hold through short term volatility.
-
分析IQE、AAOI及AXTI等小众AI供应链标的的早期机会与执行风险。
可能尚未被定价的只有那些更小众的领域，例如在磷化铟(InP)衬底上的外延工艺，或者那些刚刚触及拐点的新型激光器/收发器玩家。 我曾提到 $IQE 处于极早期阶段（但风险更高），因为其同行 Landmark 的估值已达 35-40 亿美元。 这取决于重组情况。 $AAOI 也处于极早期，情况更微妙，因为他们提供端到端服务（激光器 -> 设计 -> 组装）。如果他们能在每一层执行到位，淘汰 $FN/中际旭创 类型的玩家并扩大利润率，可能实现 10 倍增长。 但这很大程度上取决于执行能力。 $AXTI 也许有机会，如果 Shkreli 加入董事会并教他们如何涨价的话。
英文原文
Only ones probably not priced in are the more niche ones like epitaxy process on top of the InP substrates or maybe new laser/transceiver players that hit their inflection point. I mentioned $IQE was extremely early (but more high risk), given their peer Landmark was priced at $3.5-$4B. This depends on restructuring. $AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x. This largely depends on execution though. $AXTI maybe if Shkreli joins their board and teaches them how to hike prices.
-
光子学成AI新瓶颈，激光与InP紧缺，CPO变革预计2028年。
光子学是下一个主要瓶颈。 $NVDA 提前发出了每一个瓶颈的信号：从 HBM（与三星/SK海力士合作）到 CoWoS，再到如今对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的投资： 激光晶圆厂、共封装光学(CPO) 和磷化铟(InP)。 针对每个瓶颈中最具非对称性的多头标的： 1. InP 衬底：$AXTI，住友，JX 2. InP 上游原料+加工：$AXTI 3. 激光器：$AAOI（自研），$AVGO，$COHR，$LITE 4. CPO：$TSEM，Soitec。 $AAOI 财报电话会确认了激光器瓶颈，三家超大规模云厂商希望买断其能生产的所有光收发器。 $AXTI 的积压订单确认了 InP 衬底瓶颈。（玩家图片来源：IndexBox） CPO 瓶颈被广泛预期将在 2027-2028 年末发生。 $AVGO 关于“CPO”的评论带来了短期波动。但这不同于正在发生的激光->收发器和 InP 瓶颈。 关于时间框架： $AAOI，$LITE，$COHR 和激光收发器瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计像内存一样在 2028 年前恶化）。 $AXTI，住友和 InP 衬底瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计只要 AI 在未来多年使用光子学，情况就会恶化）。 由 $NVDA 引领的向 CPO 的大型架构转变可能发生在 2028 年。 这些对于 AI 的下一个范式转变来说似乎是不可避免的。
英文原文
Photonics is the next major bottleneck. $NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from: HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment: Laser Fab, CPO, and InP. For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck: 1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX 2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI 3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE 4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec. The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce. The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox) And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028. There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now. For timeframes: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028). $AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come). And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028. These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.
-
X算法改善，金融分析内容互动增加，但仍有无关AI视频干扰。
谢谢，X 的算法总体上有所改善。特别是在金融领域，注意到分析类工作的参与度普遍提升。不过，那些关于人们骑着飞毯射击的 AI 视频，以及偶尔重现的奥运会“打手”素材依然存在。
英文原文
Thanks, X algorithm has gotten better in general. Especially in the financial sector, noting more engagement for analytical work across the board. There’s still the AI videos of people on flying carpets shooting down stuff and Olympic goon material reappearing from time to time.
-
谷歌AI基建支出庞大且持续加速，利好相关半导体供应链。
“谷歌数据中心建设规模可能突破1万亿美元” 这对谷歌TPU生态系统1.5万亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)意味着什么： 对$LITE、联发科(Mediatek)、$AVGO、$TSM、SK海力士、三星等普遍利好。 在接受福布斯关于AI资本支出的采访时，$GOOGL首席技术官(CTO)表示： “今年在1750亿至1850亿美元之间，假设不会下降，人们可以想象这在10年内可能延伸到某个巨大的数字” 福布斯评论道：“谷歌的数据中心野心与OpenAI有着巨大差异：谷歌是一台赚钱机器” 昨日，市场抛售了OpenAI和$ORCL相关的半导体股，暂停了一些Stargate相关项目。 市场将OpenAI的成长阵痛与由最富有的超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)资助的更广泛的AI基础设施建设混为一谈。 从$GOOGL和印钞机般的Mag7角度来看： AI基础设施建设在未来十年看来只会加速。
英文原文
“Google’s Data Center Buildout Could Top 1 Trillion” The implications for $1.5T+ in capex spend for the Google TPU ecosystem: From $LITE, Mediatek, $AVGO, $TSM, SK Hynix, Samsung and others are widely positive. In an interview with Forbes on AI capex spend, $GOOGL CTO stated: “We’re at $175 to $185 billion this year, one could imagine, assuming it's not going to go down, that this could extend to some big number over 10 years” Forbes comments: “There’s a big difference between Google’s data center ambitions and OpenAI’s: Google is a money-making machine” Yesterday, markets sold off semi names from OpenAI + $ORCL putting a pause on some Stargate related projects. The market conflated OpenAI's growing pains with the broader AI infrastructure buildout funded by the richest hyperscalers. From $GOOGL and a money-printing Mag7 perspective: The AI buildout only looks to accelerate over the next decade.
-
看好存储板块，NAND涨价超预期，预计跑赢大盘。
@eclement04 不，我在做多存储和波动率上升。Q2 NAND 价格被三星和可能的 SK 海力士翻倍，比分析师预期高出 4-10 倍。宏观背景影响大多数股票，但我预计该板块将方向性跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@eclement04 No I’m long on memory and volatility increases. Q2 NAND prices were doubled by Samsung and likely SK Hynix, around 4-10 times more than analyst expectations. There’s a lot of macro backdrop affecting majority of stocks, but I expect that sector to directionally outperform.
-
博主预告将发布后续帖子，指出提及的几只股票短期内不会消失。
@MontSalvatUSA @daniel_koss 我会就此发布后续帖子，像 $INTC、$COHR、$RDDT、$IBIT 和 $RKLB 这类东西在短期内不会消失。
英文原文
@MontSalvatUSA @daniel_koss I’ll make a follow up post on this, stuff like $INTC, $COHR, $RDDT, $IBIT, and $RKLB are not going away anytime soon.
-
区分公司经营与股价表现，强调关注个人持仓回报。
@blackwalletfr 公司 $IREN 经营良好与你持有的该公司股票升值之间是有区别的。我更关心我的股票表现如何，而不是公司本身。 https://t.co/X1YzRXWBNK
英文原文
@blackwalletfr There’s a difference between the company $IREN doing well and your shares in the company appreciating in value. I care about how my shares perform, not so much about the company itself. https://t.co/X1YzRXWBNK
-
除巨头外需警惕宏观与稀释风险，密切跟踪高成长股变化。
同意，除非你的持仓是 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，否则你不能只是躺平四年就确信它会表现良好。密切关注是否有任何实质性变化至关重要。尤其是对于极高贝塔值的超成长型公司，宏观环境、战略转型或过度稀释都可能破坏你的投资逻辑或限制上行空间。
英文原文
Agreed, if your name is not $GOOGL or $TSM where you can just sit back 4 years and know it will likely do well. It’s important to monitor if there’s any material changes. Especially for extremely high beta hypergrowth names where things from macro, pivots, or excessive dilution can break your thesis or cap upside
-
IREN因GPU采购及ATM增发稀释，轻资产优势丧失，散户价值或归零。
@Brian_S1_1991 第一次大规模买入 $IREN 是在 20 多美元高位至 30 美元低位区间。随后在上涨途中退出。去年它是一家很有前景的轻资产公司，但今年因购买 GPU 和极端的自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释而艰难转型，这可能会彻底抹去散户股东的价值。 https://t.co/ocQ6vcx1Qz
英文原文
@Brian_S1_1991 First major $IREN buys were in the high $20’s low 30’s. Then exited on the way up. It was very promising, asset light company last year but hard pivoted with GPU buys and extreme ATM dilution that might just wipe out retail share value. https://t.co/ocQ6vcx1Qz
-
IREN投资逻辑已变，警惕巨额ATM融资风险。
我去年曾做多 $IREN，但投资逻辑已发生实质性变化。 再次强调，我现在对 $IREN 没有任何经济利益，但我确实关注散户的最佳利益。 鉴于涉及真金白银，有情绪波动是可以理解的，但如果想继续做多，重要的是要意识到来自 60 亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资的明显危险信号(red flags)。 人们可以自由决定如何操作自己的投资组合。
英文原文
I was long $IREN last year, but the thesis has materially changed. Again I have zero economic interest in $IREN now but I do look out for retail’s best interest. It’s fine if there’s emotion involved given money is at stake, but it’s important to become aware of the glaring red flags from a $6B ATM if they want to continue going long. People are free to do whatever they want with their own portfolio.
-
质疑BMNR偏离以太坊质押目标，资金投向巧克力公司，建议重新评估。
是的，其他股票如 $BMNR 也是如此。 如果投资者支持的目标是收购 5% 的以太坊($ETH) 供应量，并通过质押(Staking) + 代币升值来实现复利回报。 那么该公司在甚至尚未收购 5% 的以太坊之前，就将 2 亿美元资金转向一家 YouTuber 的巧克力棒公司。 也许是时候重新考虑了。
英文原文
Yes it’s the same with other stocks like $BMNR. If the goal investors supported was to acquire 5% of $ETH supply and compound return through staking + token appreciation. Then the company redirects $200M into a YouTuber’s chocolate bar company before even acquiring 5% of Ethereum. Might be a good time to reconsider.
-
警惕与股票“结婚”，投资逻辑变化时应果断调整持仓。
大多数 X 用户都会犯与股票“结婚”的错误。 如果你的投资逻辑因 $HIMS 或 $IREN 发生实质性变化，你的持仓也应随之调整。 如果去年你对 $IREN 的看多逻辑是通过托管(Colo)业务变现 3GW 产能。 那么如果该公司： -> 在 122 亿市值下不可避免地向你稀释 60 亿美元 -> 在每次反弹中将这些股份抛向公开市场 -> 转向 GPU 业务 你的逻辑已经变了。 这很可能是一个退出以追求更具非对称性机会的时机。 如果你对 $HIMS 的逻辑是它是医疗界的亚马逊。 但如果他们被 $NVO 和美国政府起诉至绝境，退出是合理的。 但如果随着 $NVO 撤诉并达成合作，逻辑重新成立，那么再次做多也没有问题。 每个月都有许多因催化剂或基本面而改变的事情。 如果你仍在为必然发生的、针对你 $IREN 持仓的 60 亿美元新股抛售而欢呼。 而你唯一的理由就像 $AMC 投资者那样“信任管理层”。 也许现在是时候问问自己： 你是否因为与股票“结婚”而忽略了所有危险信号？
英文原文
Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?
-
博主引用经典广告语调侃埃隆·马斯克。
@sama 舔多少下才能舔到 Tootsie Pop 棒棒糖的中心？ https://t.co/6ZrP8UWHL7
英文原文
@sama How many licks does it take to get to the center off a Tootsie Pop? https://t.co/6ZrP8UWHL7
-
AXTI受铟价新高及光子需求驱动，订单饱满且扩产，未来盈利将体现涨价。
铟非标准件(Indium nonstandard)价格已创历史新高。 当人们审视 $AXTI 的财报时，常犯的一个错误是用短缺/光子学(Photonics)需求爆发前约1年前的合同来评判其业绩。 我预计随着新合同周期到来 -> 半年后的前瞻盈利将开始体现大量涨价影响。 但财报显示他们订单已排满且正在扩产（这是利好）。
英文原文
7n indium nonstandard is up to all time highs. When people look at $AXTI earnings, they often make the mistake of judging contracts from maybe 1Y ago before a lot of the shortages/photonics demand began. I'd expect when new contract cycles hit -> forward earnings a half a year from now will start showing in a lot of the price hikes. But earnings showed they were already fully backlogged and are expanding capacity (which is positive).
-
是的，如果你向光模块的光学收发器更上游追溯，例如 $AXTI 是光子学领域最终的材料瓶颈。他们通常供应给外延片(epiwafer)公司如 $IQE，后者再供应给 $LITE -> $LITE Cloudlight -> $FN -> $GOOGL。沿途还有像 $TSEM 这样的公司，以及向 $IQE/Landmark 出售反应器的随机欧洲厂商。
英文原文
Yeah if you go more upstream for optical transceivers for example, $AXTI is the end of the end materials bottleneck for photonics. They usually they supply to epiwafer companies like $IQE that supply to $LITE -> $LITE cloudlite -> $FN -> $GOOGL. And companies like $TSEM along the way + random European reactor sellers to $IQE/Landmark.
-
博主澄清对ATOM业务一无所知，仅为玩笑
@JorgeA76608 这是个玩笑，我完全不知道 $ATOM 是做什么的 lol
英文原文
@JorgeA76608 it's a joke, have 0 clue what $ATOM does lol