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为被做空重创的$HIMS投资者加油，并讽刺做空者。
@moninvestor 如果 $HIMS 发生那样的情况会很有趣。 我个人只是在为过去几个月被做空者重创的 $HIMS 投资者加油。 希望他们至少能从试图让美国公司破产的尝试中吸取一些教训。
英文原文
@moninvestor Would be interesting if that happened for $HIMS. I’m personally just cheering on the $HIMS investors that were beat up by short sellers over the past few months. Hopefully they at least learn some lessons trying to bankrupt American companies.
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$HIMS因与$NVO合作及基本面反转，周一或现逼空行情。
$HIMS 隔夜交易即将开始，周五收盘价为 $22。 此前该股交易价为 $70，但鉴于： - $NVO / 美国政府诉讼威胁使公司破产 - $HIMS 来自 GLP-1 的收入减速。 空头做空了该公司 40% 以上的流通盘。 所有这一切在周五盘后发生了逆转，据彭博社报道，$NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作，这是一个极其令人惊讶的事件。 由于收入重新加速、为全球扩张进行的新收购、资产负债表无破产威胁，以及现在与 $NVO 的合作： 空头现在面临无限亏损，做空了接近一半的流通盘。 目前的格局看起来非常适合发生逼空(short squeeze)。 然而，结果主要取决于散户的反应，或者他们是否会向空头投降。 无论如何，每个人都会关注周一，看看 $HIMS 的仙人掌药丸(cactus pills)是否能作为对抗原油的宏观经济避险资产。
英文原文
$HIMS overnight trading will begin soon after finishing Friday at $22. Previously it traded at $70, but given: - $NVO / US Gov lawsuit threatening to bankrupt the company - $HIMS revenue deceleration from GLP-1. Short sellers shorted 40%+ of the company’s float. All of that flipped Friday after hours once $NVO partnered up with $HIMS per Bloomberg, in an extremely surprising event. Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO: Short sellers now face infinite losses, selling close to half of the float short. And the setup looks prime for a short squeeze. However, the outcome primarily depends on how retail reacts or if they capitulate to short sellers. Either way, everyone will be watching Monday to see whether $HIMS cactus pills serves as a macroeconomic flight to safety against crude oil.
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博主认为当散户和媒体极度看空指数并押注油价暴涨时，是反向看多的信号。
我是唯一一个在以下情况发生时突然转为看多的人吗： - X 上的散户 - WallStreetbets 上的关注者 - Jim Cramer 现在都在对指数发布末日论，并且： 要么做多原油合约，要么认为油价将涨至 150-200 美元？ https://t.co/GoUXV3UM2q
英文原文
Am I the only one that just flipped bullish when: - Retail on X - Regards on WallStreetbets - Jim Cramer Are now all doomposting indexes and are: Either are long crude oil contracts or think oil is going to $150-$200? https://t.co/GoUXV3UM2q
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博主回应攻击，重申对IREN等股ATM稀释的警告是出于散户利益。
谢谢，听到那个消息很遗憾。我只是试图对自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释提出合理的警告。去年我在$BKKT上也做过同样的事，当时ATM增发让所有人的股票跌入深渊。但我现在对$IREN发出警告时，却遭遇了同样的个人攻击。尽管被辱骂，我仍然站在散户投资者的最佳利益立场。
英文原文
Thanks and sorry to hear that. I’m just trying to give justified warnings about ATM dilution. I did the same with $BKKT last year before ATMs sent everyone’s shares to oblivion. But got the same personal attacks like I’m getting with $IREN now. Regardless still looking for retail’s best interest despite the name calling.
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指出IREN风险披露被无视，暗示市场处于非理性阶段。
@CK_Cryptoklepto 我们可能正处于这个阶段，因为我指出 $IREN 的风险披露(risk disclosures)就被称为机器人(bot)了，哈哈 https://t.co/DTM73USeMx
英文原文
@CK_Cryptoklepto We’re probably at this stage since I’m getting called a bot for pointing out $IREN risk disclosures lol https://t.co/DTM73USeMx
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BKKT等公司利用热点炒作后通过ATM减持，散户受损严重。
纵观 $BKKT、$ASST 以及可能的 $IREN，其策略如出一辙。围绕热门叙事（比特币库藏、AI 智能体、数据中心）制造巨大的散户炒作热度，等待股价飙升，随后立即通过定向增发(ATM)抛售股份以资助运营并支付高管基于股票的薪酬(SBC)。公司本身没问题，但个体散户股东受到的伤害最大。
英文原文
Across $BKKT, $ASST, and maybe $IREN. The strategy has been identical. Generate massive retail hype around a hot narrative (Bitcoin treasuries, AI agents, DCs), wait for the stock to spike, and immediately dump shares via ATMs to fund operations and pay executive SBCs. The companies themselves are fine but the individual retail shareholder is left hurt the most.
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呼吁理性看待 $IREN 风险及 ATM 融资争议
没错。很高兴大家能看清全貌，从而就 $IREN 的风险做出明智决策。不幸的是，为了证明 60 亿美元 ATM（自动取款机融资）的合理性，出现了大量人身攻击。但我认为任何理性的投资者都能从噪音中辨别出大方向的正确性。
英文原文
Exactly. It’s good people have the full picture so people can make informed decisions from risks with $IREN. Unfortunately there’s been a lot of personal attacks to explain why the $6B ATM is justified. But I think any rational investor can discern what’s directionally right from the noise.
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反驳对IREN和BKKT风险的忽视，指出巨额烧钱和管理层关联。
@JC_GetRichSlow 当存在60亿美元的重大现金消耗(ATM)时，这并没有为讨论增添任何价值。 此外，$IREN 管理层还参与了 $BKKT 等公司，这也是公开信息。 将明显的风险和历史记录斥为“散布恐慌”是无关紧要的。 https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
英文原文
@JC_GetRichSlow It’s not adding nothing to the dialogue when there’s a material $6 Billion USD ATM. It’s also public information $IREN management was involved companies $BKKT as well. Dismissing clear risks and track records as “fearmongering” is immaterial. https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
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指出IREN管理层过往记录公开，质疑信任其处理稀释的论点。
尽管你可以随意发表看法，但这无法改变事实。关于 $IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的过往记录，所有信息都是公开的。如果某人的核心论点是“信任管理层能处理好稀释问题”，那么了解这一点确实至关重要。
英文原文
Feel free to say whatever you want, but it doesn’t change the reality of things. It’s all public information with $IREN management track record with $BKKT and $ASST. It’s definitely important to know if someone is making the primary argument of trusting in management to handle dilution
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警告 IREN 60 亿 ATM 稀释将重创散户，勿盲目信任管理层。
支持 Iren 进行 60 亿美元稀释的主要论点是： “信任 $IREN 管理层对稀释的管理能力。” 如果你查看 IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的实际历史： 这两家公司都通过自动做市商(ATM)发行彻底摧毁了股东价值。 导致所有原始散户股份价值下跌 98-99%。 像 Bakkt 这样的公司表现尚可。 但高管的股票薪酬 + 稀释抹去了散户的所有股权价值。 如果一家公司申请 60 亿美元的 ATM 稀释，你应该预期他们会使用它并据此调整仓位。 也许 $IREN 的结果会不同。 但一边说“信任管理层”，一边看这些炒作型散户股票的管理层记录 -> ATM 稀释抹去所有价值的情况已多次发生。 公司最终可能没事，别把这和你的股票表现混为一谈。 我最关心散户股东胜过公司高管，这就是我分享关于 $IREN 60 亿 ATM 的红旗信号的原因。
英文原文
The primary argument for Iren’s $6B dilution was: “Trust in $IREN management with managing dilution.” If you look at the actual history of IREN management with: $BKKT and $ASST. Both companies have completely obliterated shareholder value from ATM dilution. Dropping all original retail share value down by 98-99%. Companies like Bakkt have been doing okay. But both stock based compensation to executives + dilution wiped out all equity value from retail. If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly. Maybe $IREN turns out differently. But saying “Trust in Management” then looking at the track record of management of hype retail stocks -> ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times. The company will likely end up fine don’t conflate that with the performance of your shares. I care the most about retail shareholders over corporate executives, which is why I’m sharing the red flag about $IREN $6B ATM.
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ATM融资稀释股东价值，建议等待稀释完成后再买入。
除了自动质押融资(ATM)之外，如果他们想筹集60亿美元，还有其他融资方式。如果不需要走这条路，他们就不会提交申请。 ATM会抹平现有股东的价值，但作为回报，这对公司更有利（例如，没有债务融资的利息）。 如果你是这60亿美元新ATM的流动性提供方，你的上行空间会被封顶，所以在现有持有者被稀释后买入会更好。
英文原文
There are other financing methods than ATMs if they wanted to raise $6B. They wouldn’t have filed it if they didn’t need to go that route. An ATM wipes out current shareholder value but in return it’s better for the company (eg. No interest from debt financing) Your upside is capped if you’re the liquidity for the new $6B ATM, so it’s better to buy back after existing holders get wiped.
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警示ATM融资对散户权益的损害及特定股票风险
我关注散户利益，并对 $CRWV 的债务利息、$RVI 的高估发行以及其他像 $AVS 这样极度稀释股权且利于套利投资者的股票进行同样的风险披露。 $IREN 并非被单独点名，但它是利用散户作为流动性来源的热门股票之一。 定向增发(ATM)可能是对散户权益最具破坏性的融资方式。
英文原文
I care about retail interests and I do the same risk disclosures around $CRWV debt interest, $RVI inflated offerings, and other extremely dilutive stocks like $UAVS that benefit arbitrage investors. $IREN is not singled out, but it’s one of the more popular ones that use retail as liquidity. ATMs are probably the most harmful financing methods for retail equity.
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澄清对IREN的分析仅为风险提示，非买卖建议。
@Peregrino1708 是的，同意。我并没有告诉人们要卖出或买入 $IREN，只是列出风险和最可能的结果。最终人们可以自由做出自己的选择。但拥有基于实质而非其他持有者带来的无关噪音的理性推理是很好的。
英文原文
@Peregrino1708 Yep, agreed. I’m not telling people to sell or buy $IREN, just laying out the risks and most likely outcomes. In the end people are free to make their own choices. But it’s good to have grounded reasoning outside of immaterial noise from other holders.
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指出EWY因穿透结构高度集中于SK海力士和三星。
并非如此，$EWY 主要由 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)构成，这得益于像 SK Square（90% 净资产价值 NAV 来自 SK 海力士）或三星电子的其他投票权结构股份等穿透式结构。 或者是其他三星旗下公司，其净资产价值由持有三星电子股份构成。 它的集中度比绝大多数人意识到的要高得多。
英文原文
Not really, $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung due to pass through structures like SK Square (90% NAV Sk Hynix) or Samsung Electronic’s other voting structure shares. Or other Samsung companies NAV made up of holding Samsung Electronics shares. It’s a lot more concentrated than the vast majority of people realize.
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建议等待 $IREN 稀释周期结束且散户提供流动性后再做多。
是的，这是完美的总结。人们将 $IREN 业务表现良好（我认为作为一家与 $MSFT 合作的 DC 它也会如此）与其股价表现良好混为一谈。等待现有散户/逢低买入者为 60 亿美元的稀释周期提供流动性，待其结束后再建立多头头寸，是高度理性的。
英文原文
Yes this is the perfect summary. People conflate $IREN doing well (which I think it will too as a DC with $MSFT partnership), with their share prices doing well. Waiting for existing retail/dip buyers to serve as liquidity for the $6 billion dilution cycle finishes before going long is a highly rational.
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IREN公司虽能成功，但60亿稀释压力将压制股价。
@mattpurdy89 谢谢，我的观点非常微妙。我认为 $IREN 作为一家公司会取得成功。但这并不意味着你的股价也会上涨。这仅仅是由于 $60 亿不可避免的稀释和抛售压力这一结构性现实所致。
英文原文
@mattpurdy89 Thanks, my thought is very nuanced. I think $IREN as a company will succeed. But that doesn't mean your share prices will too. That's just due to the structural realities of $6B in inevitable dilution and selling pressure.
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批评针对IREN融资的人身攻击，强调应关注实质并维护散户利益。
不幸的是，人们陷入各种人身攻击，而不是讨论 $IREN $60 亿 ATM（自动取款机融资）的实际内容和影响。这只是诚实的现实，情绪很多时候会蒙蔽判断，尤其是当你持有该股票时。无论如何，我将始终优先考虑散户投资者的利益，即使人们想继续人身攻击来为 $60 亿 ATM 辩护。
英文原文
Unfortunately people go into all sorts of character attacks instead of discussing the actual substance and implications $IREN's $6B ATM. This is just the honest reality of things, emotions cloud judgement a lot of times, especially if you hold the stock. Regardless, I'll always look out for retail interest above anyone else, even if people want to continue personal attacks to justify a $6B ATM.
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IREN稀释60亿损害散户利益，建议等待现有股东提供流动性。
是的，$IREN 这家公司在稀释 $60 亿并在公开市场抛售之后，前景可能会不错。然而，这是以牺牲当前散户股东和“逢低买入者”的利益为代价的。如果你关心股票价值的上涨，更明智的选择是等待现有持有者提供流动性。
英文原文
Yep, $IREN as a company will likely do well once they dilute $6B and sell that into the open market. However, this is at the expense of retail equity holders now and "dip buyers". The smarter alternative if you care for your value in the stock to go up is to wait until existing holders serve as liquidity.
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警告散户勿在IREN ATM融资前抄底，建议等待稀释完成后再做多。
如果你读过我的披露声明，我对 $IREN 没有任何经济利益或持仓。 我只是陈述一个残酷的现实：散户“逢低买入者”不可避免地会被稀释，并成为 $IREN 60亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资的流动性来源。 如果你想做多 $IREN 并从股权增值中获利，让其他人先承担稀释冲击，然后再入场做多，可能是更明智的选择。 尤其是因为自动取款机(ATM)融资是更具散户破坏性的融资方式之一。
英文原文
If you read my disclosure, I have zero economic interest or positions in $IREN. I'm just stating the harsh reality that retail "dip buyers" will be inevitably be diluted and serve as liquidity for the $6 Billion ATM. Letting others take the dilution hit first and going long after is likely the smarter alternative if you want to long $IREN and benefit from equity appreciation. Especially since ATMs are one of the more retail-destructive methods to finance.
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作者指出IREN巨额定向增发将压制股价，反驳逢低买入观点。
我在此是为了保护散户利益。我对 $IREN 没有任何经济利益。正如你所说，随波逐流确实容易得多。但残酷的现实是，60亿美元的定向增发(ATM)规模巨大，将成为持有者的结构性压制因素。当一半的市场份额不可避免地通过增发并针对散户抛售时，我无法理解任何人如何能诚实地称其为“逢低买入机会”。
英文原文
I'm here to protect retail interests. I have zero economic interest in $IREN. As you mentioned, it's a lot easier to go with the flow. But the harsh reality is $6B ATM is enormous and will serve as a structural overhang for holders. I can't see how anyone could honestly say it's a "dip buying opportunity" when half of the marketcap is inevitably minted then sold against retail holders.
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IREN巨额ATM增发将严重稀释散户，建议等待稀释完成后再做多。
$IREN 60亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)增发额度非常庞大。 对于持有 $IREN 的人来说，你可能不想听到这个真相： -> 等待现有持有者被稀释到 oblivion（虚无） -> 利用他们为你“抄底”这60亿美元的新股。 -> 然后做多。 如果你现在做多： 那不可避免的60亿美元新股 + 卖压，从结构上限制了你的股权上行空间，并在任何反弹中构成压制。 公司申请60亿美元的ATM额度不是为了不用。 他们会用，并且在任何反弹中尽可能多地使用。 现实是，虽然有其他融资方式，但ATM对散户股东最具破坏性。 $IREN 本身是一家像样的公司，不像电影院股票，但正如提到的过度稀释： 你可能会看到 $IREN 的市值回升至200亿美元左右，但你的股价价值却暴跌。 简而言之：残酷的现实是 $IREN 可能在根本上成功并建立庞大的数据中心(DC)布局。 但这代价是严重稀释散户股东。散户投资者应更关心自己股票价值的增加，而非公司整体价值。 披露：我在该公司没有任何经济利益或持仓，但我确实关心优先考虑散户利益。
英文原文
$IREN $6 Billion ATM is massive. For the people who hold $IREN, the truth you might not want to hear is: -> Wait until existing holders get diluted to oblivion -> Use them to "buy the dip" of $6 Billion in new shares for you. -> Go long after. If you're long now: That inevitable $6B in new shares + selling pressure structurally caps upside in your equity and serves as a overhang in any rally. Companies don’t file a $6B ATM not to use it. They will, and as much as they can on any rally. The reality is that there are other financing methods, but ATMs are the most destructive ones to retail shareholders. $IREN itself is a solid company unlike movie theater stocks, but like excessive dilution referenced: You will likely see the marketcap of $IREN go up back toward $20B, but the your share prices tanking in value. TLDR: The harsh reality is $IREN might fundamentally succeed and build a massive DC footprint. But it's at the cost of heavily diluting retail shareholders. Retail investors should care more about the value of their own stock increasing over the company's value. Disclosure: I have zero economic interest or positions in the company, but I do care about prioritizing retail interest.
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AI使内存需求结构化，SK海力士即便在基准情景下仍被低估。
由于人工智能(AI)，内存需求是结构性的。但价格上涨可能并非如此。 当摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测： ~1329亿美元（2026年）+ ~1670亿美元（2027年）= 未来两年SK海力士(SK Hynix)的营业利润约为3000亿美元，而SK海力士的市值约为4000亿美元。 他们将坐拥大量现金。我甚至没有引用麦格理(Macquarie)预测5000亿美元营业利润的牛市情景，因为那看起来太荒谬了。 但在基准情景下，如果DRAM/NAND价格下跌，创纪录的营业利润回归到早期水平。 由于AI需求使内存需求具有结构性，它看起来仍然被低估。 AI从根本上改变了像GPU或内存这样被标记为“大宗商品”的运作方式。 这不再是2022年智能手机/消费电子需求下降导致价格崩盘，你可以简单地引用低市盈率(P/E)做空像以前那样的大宗商品周期。
英文原文
Memory demand is structural due to AI. Price hikes might not be. When there's Morgan Stanley projections of: ~$132.9B (2026) + ~$167.0B (2027) = ~300B operating profit from SK Hynix in the next two years and SK Hynix's marketcap is ~$400B. They will be sitting on piles of cash. I'm not even citing bull-case projections where Macquarie projects $500B operating income because it looks absurd. But in the base case event that record operating income goes back to earlier levels if dram/nand prices decrease. It still looks undervalued as AI demand makes memory structural. AI fundamentally changes how labelled "commodities" work like GPUs or memory. This is not 2022 where smartphone/consumer electronic decreases crash prices and you can just cite low/pe = short like commodity cycles before.
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反驳情绪投资，指出存储涨价驱动指数上涨及利润大增。
仅凭图表就断言“X”的年初至今表现，并引用情绪作为依据，这是最糟糕的投资方式。 股票跟随基本面，如果由创纪录的自由现金流(FCF)支撑，上涨行情才是可持续的。 此次上涨的主要原因主要是SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的存储芯片价格飙升，且这两家公司在指数中占据主要权重。 甚至不看DRAM，NAND价格在第一季度(Q1)就上涨了100%以上。 对于第二季度(Q2)，NAND价格在第一季度100%涨幅的基础上再次上涨100%，而分析师此前预测的涨幅仅为5-30%。 这极大地增加了存储芯片制造商的营业利润。
英文原文
Looking at the chart alone for saying "X" YTD and citing sentiment as is the worst way to invest. Stocks follow fundamentals and rallies are sustainable if it's backed by record FCF. The reason for the rally was primarily memory price hikes from Sk Hynix/Samsung and those two making up majority of the index by weight. Not even looking at DRAM, NAND prices were hiked Q1 by 100%+. For Q2, NAND prices again were 100% again, off the Q1 100% hikes while analysts were projecting 5-30% increases. This vastly increases operating income of memory makers.
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油价/LNG/氦气恐慌被夸大，SK海力士/三星高利润率可吸收成本，逢低买入。
关于韩国综合指数(KOSPI) | $EWY (SK海力士 / 三星) 的情绪， 原油 / 液化天然气(LNG) / 氦气要么： 扰乱供应或压缩利润的说法被夸大了。 对SK海力士、三星的供应链中断和能源成本威胁是耸人听闻的噪音。 原因如下： 1. 原油： 如果油价上涨31%并浮动至120美元/桶的可能情景： 在这种情况下，油价对SK海力士和韩国内存股几乎没有实质性影响。 通过挂钩油价的LNG/JKM价格，韩国股票面临能源成本上升，主要影响那些仅靠5%到10%微薄利润生存的公司。 然而，鉴于内存价格飙升且三星在Q2将NAND价格翻倍，韩国电力公社(KEPCO) 70%的费率上调对三星/SK海力士几乎没有实质性影响。 根据披露的财务数据，SK海力士的年度电费超过1万亿韩元（DIGITIMES报道，约7.5亿美元）。相对于FY2025年97.15万亿韩元的收入，这约占收入的1-2%。 SK海力士在2025年Q4实现了58%的营业利润率。在此背景下，能源成本冲击很小： 如果我们模拟能源成本增加50%： - 对SK海力士季度营业利润(19.17万亿韩元)的影响：~1340亿-~1460亿韩元 (0.76%) - 对三星DS季度营业利润(16.4万亿韩元)的影响：~4070亿韩元 (2.4%) 每次50%的能源成本激增会使SK海力士的利润率减少约0.7%，三星的营业利润率减少2.4%。 分析师预测SK海力士在2026年传统DRAM上的利润率可能达到70%以上。即使能源成本增加100%，也不会对韩国半导体营业利润率构成实质性威胁。 然而，这对营业利润率为5-10%的低利润率公司是实质性的。 输家：传统重工业（钢铁、基础化学品、普通平板玻璃）。 赢家：三星/SK海力士。 主要风险是供应链的二阶效应，如原材料成本增加。这很难建模，但在一个例子中： 一家工业公司迫使原材料（化学品、特种气体）价格上涨30%，这对晶圆厂的影响微乎其微。 材料约占半导体销售成本(COGS)的15-20%，因此从数学上讲，材料成本激增30%只会使SK海力士的营业利润率再减少约2%。 一个打印70%利润率（并提高价格）的寡头可以轻松吸收3-4%的直接（公用事业）和间接（材料）能源逆风。 在大多数情况下，成本可能会通过NAND/DRAM价格上涨转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。 在油价上涨3倍或5倍的极端情况下。 油价上涨数百倍的主要影响是两个因素： - 全球宏观经济冲击，导致全球通胀（影响从$GOOGL到$COST的每一家公司）。 - 韩元(KRW) USD/KRW汇率崩盘。 持续高油价导致的韩元贬值是一个真实的二阶风险，但历史上韩国内存出口商受益于韩元贬值带来的收入端优势。三星/SK海力士的大部分销售以美元计价，而成本以韩元计价。因此，韩元走弱实际上有利于出口商的利润率，部分抵消了能源成本逆风。 但在油价上涨5倍的极端情况下，那个末日世界里唯一的做多标的只有原油本身、像$LMT / $NOC这样的国防承包商、美国国内能源生产商和美元。 这不太可能发生。 财经媒体和算法可能会恐慌，但如果原油从91美元涨到120美元且KEPCO提高能源成本： 数据显示这对三星 / SK海力士几乎没有影响，主要影响的是那些营业利润率微薄的玩家。 2. LNG： 如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将不受影响。 媒体一直在引用霍尔木兹海峡+流向中国、印度、韩国和日本的LNG流量。但如果我们查看韩国的贸易数据，这只是其总进口的一小部分。 大部分进口通过非霍尔木兹海峡路线到达，例如澳大利亚 (24.6%)、美国 (12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚 (~20%) 和俄罗斯/萨哈林 (~4.6%)。其余部分由来自尼日利亚、秘鲁、文莱、巴布亚新几内亚等次要来源填补。 2024年82%的进口是挂钩油价的长期合同，正如我们上面建模的那样，能源成本增加会使运营支出(opex)每增加50%受损1-2%，但鉴于DRAM/NAND价格上涨和营业利润率达到70%以上，这只会造成很小的缺口。 即使如此，成本也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商。 韩国从2022年吸取了教训并多元化了来源，LNG供应中断的影响很小。主要担忧是油价影响LNG价格上涨。 3. 氦气： SK海力士声明：“已确保多样化的供应链和充足的氦气库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气]影响。” 现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经多元化了供应链以应对外部事件。 氦气对半导体供应链至关重要，但媒体叙事是耸人听闻的。尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明称公司[SK海力士]不可能受到影响时。 _ 但对于三星/SK海力士等韩国股票，围绕石油/LNG/氦气的恐惧看起来与现实脱节： 因氦气和KEPCO费率上调而抛售SK海力士的算法是在进行错误的计算。这从根本上说是一个非供应链问题。 主要威胁是石油和能源成本对全球宏观经济冲击的影响，影响从消费品到通胀的一切。 3月3日“黑色星期二”暴跌使KOSPI下跌7.2%，SK海力士单日下跌11.5%，正是以这些能源安全恐惧为主要催化剂。当然，杠杆强制平仓火上浇油。 然而，基本面与价格走势之间的脱节就是交易机会。如果利润率真的受到威胁，抛售就是合理的。 但，抛售在一天内摧毁的价值比几十年能源成本上涨可能造成的还要多。 数学不支持恐惧的事实正是为什么韩国是买入的理由，因为市场正在因情绪而非结构性扩张的盈利能力（尽管石油/能源成本增加）而抛售。
英文原文
The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either: Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown. The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise. Here's why: 1. Crude Oil: The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl: In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities. There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins. However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2. From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue. SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small: If we model a 50% increase in energy costs: - Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%) - Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%) Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins. Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%. However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10% The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass). The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix. The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where: an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs. Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins. A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices). In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes. In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x. The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors: - Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST). - KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout. KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind. But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar. This is unlikely to happen. The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs: The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins. 2. LNG: If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc. The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG. 3. Helium: SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. _ But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality: The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue. The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation. March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire. However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified. But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have. The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.
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转发路透社链接，无具体观点。
@madMusing_ 路透社。 https://t.co/xR6Flkw90R
英文原文
@madMusing_ Reuters. https://t.co/xR6Flkw90R
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回应LNG供应担忧，指出长期合同挂钩油价可能推高运营成本。
之前的帖子主要是在回应当时对液化天然气(LNG)供应的担忧。当消息首次发布时，所有人都担心供应中断，导致无法再制造芯片。长期合同很可能与油价挂钩，因此运营支出(opex)可能会因油价上涨而增加。所以仍然需要对石油进行一些建模分析，但这方面因素过于复杂。
英文原文
Post was mainly addressing LNG supply fears back then. When news was first released, everyone was fearing supply shut off and no chips could be made anymore. Long term contracts were likely oil indexed, so there might be opex hikes from oil prices. So still need to do some modeling around oil, which is way too multifaceted.
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LNG担忧被夸大，成本可转嫁，看好韩国半导体股反弹。
关于液化天然气(LNG)/JKM的担忧讨论很多，看起来仍然被夸大了，即使问题不只是氦气。如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将基本不受影响，因为它们通过澳大利亚、美国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等不经过霍尔木兹的路线到达。例如，2024年82%的进口是长期合同而非现货，但可能挂钩油价，我同意你关注油价影响。然而，即使成本飙升，运营支出(operex)也会通过涨价转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)，而不是压缩利润率。这就是为什么我认为韩国股票现在仍然是极具吸引力的多头标的，因为SK海力士(SK Hynix)市值跌至3000亿美元以上，而三星在第二季度再次将NAND闪存价格翻倍，以推动营业利润超过预期。
英文原文
Lot of discussion around LNG/JKM fears still look overblown, even if it's not just helium. Majority of SK’s LNG imports would be largely unaffected if Hormuz were closed as they arrive via Hormuz-free routes like Australia, US, Malaysia, Indonesia. Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot, but likely oil indexed and I'd agree with you there on looking at oil impact. However, even if costs shot up, opex would be passed onto hyperscalers through price hikes rather than see margins being compressed. Which is why I see KR equities still be a compelling long around now, as Sk Hynix drops to high $300B+ MC and Samsung doubles nand prices again in q2 to boost operating income past projections
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SK海力士澄清氦气供应无忧，驳斥市场恐慌，巨头供应链已多元化。
SK海力士声明： “已长期确保多元化的氦气(He)供应链和充足的库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气短缺]的影响。” X上的媒体和散户：“因为氦气，半导体行业完蛋了！” 95%的主流媒体和FinX账号都是纯粹的噪音。 虽然可能会对较小玩家产生影响并带来适度逆风： 但现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经针对外部事件实现了供应链多元化。他们不会突然停止制造芯片。 尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明，称公司[SK海力士]几乎不可能受到影响时。 这几乎就像是……世界上最大的公司从2022年吸取了教训？
英文原文
SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. Media and Retail on X: “It’s all over for Semis because of Helium!” 95% of mainstream media and FinX accounts are pure noise. While there might be an impact on smaller players and a moderate headwind: The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. And aren’t going to suddenly stop making chips. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. It’s almost if… the largest companies in the world learned their lesson from 2022?
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澄清LITE/COHR与中际旭创在光模块供应链中的不同角色。
@LostFundamental 这完全说不通。$LITE 和 $COHR 彼此竞争，但它们与中际旭创(Innolight)完全不同，后者负责设计/组装并从这两家公司采购激光器。它们在光收发器(transceiver)设计上确实有轻微重叠，但其核心业务是激光器。
英文原文
@LostFundamental That makes zero sense. $LITE and $COHR compete with one another but they’re completely different than Innolight that does design/assembly and buys the lasers from the two. They do have slight overlap with transceiver design but their core business are lasers.
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SK海力士否认受氦气中断影响，市场误杀提供交易机会。
任何供应链中断都是逆风，计入风险溢价是合理的。但如果 SK 海力士 ($SKHYNIX) 明确表示氦气（Helium）中断对其零影响，而其他分析师/市场却因氦气担忧抛售 SK 海力士，这看起来就是一个利用市场过度反应获利的机会。
英文原文
Any sort of supply chain disruption is a headwind and it makes sense to price in risk-levels. But if SK Hynix goes out and says there’s zero affect on them from Helium disruption. Then other analysts/markets say sell off SK Hynix off Helium concerns, then looks like an opportunity to capitalize off an overreaction.