· 个股论点
关于液化天然气(LNG)/JKM的担忧讨论很多，看起来仍然被夸大了，即使问题不只是氦气。如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将基本不受影响，因为它们通过澳大利亚、美国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等不经过霍尔木兹的路线到达。例如，2024年82%的进口是长期合同而非现货，但可能挂钩油价，我同意你关注油价影响。然而，即使成本飙升，运营支出(operex)也会通过涨价转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)，而不是压缩利润率。这就是为什么我认为韩国股票现在仍然是极具吸引力的多头标的，因为SK海力士(SK Hynix)市值跌至3000亿美元以上，而三星在第二季度再次将NAND闪存价格翻倍，以推动营业利润超过预期。
Lot of discussion around LNG/JKM fears still look overblown, even if it's not just helium. Majority of SK’s LNG imports would be largely unaffected if Hormuz were closed as they arrive via Hormuz-free routes like Australia, US, Malaysia, Indonesia. Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot, but likely oil indexed and I'd agree with you there on looking at oil impact. However, even if costs shot up, opex would be passed onto hyperscalers through price hikes rather than see margins being compressed. Which is why I see KR equities still be a compelling long around now, as Sk Hynix drops to high $300B+ MC and Samsung doubles nand prices again in q2 to boost operating income past projections