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$XLU 走势未变，仍是电网/AI/降息驱动的两年期交易。
@RoshiPosts $XLU 的情况没有任何变化，尤其是过去两到三周内。这是一个关于电网现代化、AI 推理和降息的两年期无聊交易。
英文原文
@RoshiPosts Nothing’s changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It’s a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.
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建议避免高IV个股或原油看跌期权，提供反向交易思路。
@drewinvestment 我只是抛出一个具体的交易思路，供看跌油价的人反向操作。我觉得很多人要么交易高隐含波动率(IV)的个股，要么买入高隐含波动率(IV)的原油合约看跌期权，这些交易都很次优。
英文原文
@drewinvestment I’m just floating a specific trade idea for going the other direction of oil prices if people are bearish. Feel like a lot of people take suboptimal trades with either high IV individual stocks or high IV oil contract puts.
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市场前瞻6-12个月，CVX启动期在2028年。
@ehaibag 市场通常具有前瞻性，领先约6-12个月。此外，2028年也在$CVX启动的时间范围内。 https://t.co/auxkgQe86Q
英文原文
@ehaibag Markets are forward looking by like 6-12 months. Also 2028 is in the timeframe $CVX gets going. https://t.co/auxkgQe86Q
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建议通过做多低波动率的$JETS期权来反向博弈原油价格。
如果你想反向操作吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）的原油交易，这里有一个交易思路： 做多 $JETS（美国航空股ETF）2028年看涨期权，此时隐含波动率（IV）为25%。 它的定价显示低贝塔值（25% IV），但本月跌幅达20%。 单独做多 $DAL 或 $AAL 的隐含波动率高达55%以上，而该ETF的波动率基本保持在相近水平。 此外，美国在原油方面相比世界其他地区更具隔离性，且该ETF主要集中于美国航空公司。 航空股与原油走势相反并非什么秘密。 当然，如果吉姆·克拉默、Wallstreetbets和X上的末日论者关于200美元油价的预测成真，这笔交易存在风险。 但鉴于当前时间点，油价有足够的均值回归空间，加上委内瑞拉产量恢复。 简而言之：如果你想做原油的反向操作，隐含波动率低于30%的 $JETS 是最佳选择。
英文原文
For trade ideas if you want to inverse Jim Cramer on the oil trade: Long $JETS (US Airliner ETF) 2028 calls where IV is 25%. It’s priced low beta (25% IV) but it moved -20% this month. Individual long on $DAL or $AAL carries elevated 55%+ IV, while the ETF basically moves relatively around the same rate. US is largely insulated regarding oil compared to the rest of the world as well and the ETF is concentrated around US airliners. Not exactly a very well kept secret airliners move in the opposite direction of oil. Of course this trade carries risks in the event Jim Cramer, Wallstreetbets, and X doomposters are actually right about $200 oil. But given the date, there’s enough time for oil prices to revert to mean + Venezuela production to get rolling. TLDR: if you want to go the other direction of crude oil, $JETS at sub 30 IV is the best way to go.
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建议反向操作WSB赌徒、散户看空者及Jim Cramer的一致观点。
@ehaibag 不，我唯一期待的是： - 所有在 WSB 上购买原油合约的赌徒。 - X 上所有唱衰大盘的散户指数看空者。 - 以及吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)。 如果他们在同一件事上达成一致，他们就会错。 大概会反向操作。
英文原文
@ehaibag No the only thing I’m expecting is - all the gamblers buying crude oil contracts on WSB. - All the retail index doomposters on X. - And Jim Cramer. To be wrong if they agree on the same thing. Probably do the opposite.
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当散户与名嘴一致看空时，油价反而大跌，反向指标再次应验。
生活中只有一件事是确定的。如果吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)、华尔街赌徒(Wallstreetbets)以及 X 上的散户末日论者都就一件事达成共识：油价将涨至 150-200 美元，且可能陷入衰退。那么他们一定是错的。原油日内已从 116 美元下跌 16% 至 98 美元。https://t.co/xgjgxLRCq1
英文原文
There’s only one certainty in life. If Jim Cramer. Wallstreetbets. And retail doomposters on X. All agree on one thing: Oil to 150-200 and a possible recession. It’s wrong. Crude Oil has since dropped 16% intraday from 116 to 98. https://t.co/xgjgxLRCq1
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调侃IQE可能面临信心危机。
@CryptoVandelay 😂，$IQE 可能面临信心危机。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay 😂, $IQE might have confidence issues.
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光子学作为AI新范式，不受地缘政治及油价波动影响。
领先的光子学(Photonics)公司并不关心原油价格飙升。 $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% 光子学是人工智能(AI)的下一个范式，伊朗战争不会改变这一点。 https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
英文原文
Leading photonic names do not concern itself with Crude Oil prices spiking. $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% Photonics is the next paradigm of AI, the War in Iran doesn’t change that. https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
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分析空头回补的三种可能情景及价格影响。
@LandoInvests 大多数时候这不会在一天内发生（如果买盘压力足够大，有时确实会）。可能会像 $TSLA 那样，随着基本面改善，空头回补。或者第三种情况，什么也没发生（投降式抛售 -> 买入平仓但未推动价格上涨）。我们拭目以待。
英文原文
@LandoInvests Most of the time it doesn’t happen over one day (sometimes it does if there’s enough buying pressure). Could end up like $TSLA where shorts buy back as fundamentals improve. Or scenario three, nothing (capitulation -> buy to cover without moving price). We’ll see what happens.
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博主强调独立思考，欣慰粉丝在复杂交易中建立信念。
听到这个很高兴！我不希望大家进行跟单交易或盲目跟随。主要目的只是分享我随行的思考，希望人们能从中有所收获。如果他们能自行建立信念，去参与像 $AXTI 这样高度复杂的交易，那就更好了。很高兴你在 $EWY 或 $IREN 的衍生品上也做到了这一点。
英文原文
That’s great to hear! I don’t want people to copy trade or just blindly follow. Main thing is just sharing my thoughts as I go and I hope people learn a few things along the way. And if they can build conviction themselves to enter a highly nuanced trade like $AXTI, that’s even better And I’m glad you did with some derivatives on $EWY or $IREN.
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博主感谢粉丝互动助力其近期粉丝量激增。
谢谢！我很确定年初时我的粉丝数大概在 8,000 到 12,000 之间。非常惊讶我在过去两个月里就获得了大部分粉丝。其中很大一部分归功于像你这样的人长期以来通过 $NBIS 等内容与我互动。X 平台很棒的一点是，网络中的每个人都在共同成长。
英文原文
Thanks! Pretty sure I started at like 8-12k at the beginning of the year. Very surprised I gained majority of my following in the last two months alone. Large part of it is people like yourself interacting with me over time with stuff like $NBIS. Cool thing about X is everyone in the network kind of grows together
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博主回应称只是个人分享日常想法。
@ButcherKuka 我只是一个人，只是在分享我一天中的想法！
英文原文
@ButcherKuka I’m one person just sharing my thoughts throughout the day!
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HIMS需散户逼空，最坏情况可低价买入优质公司。
我只是对当前局势补充一些评论。$HIMS 确实需要大量的散户买入压力来迫使空头回补(Short Squeeze)。但我不知道事态会如何发展，最坏的情况是，你能以低于法律纠纷发生前的价格买到一家基本面扎实的公司。最终，人们应该自己做决定！
英文原文
I’m just adding commentary on the current situation. $HIMS does require a lot of retail buying pressure to force cover. But no idea how this unfolds, worse case scenario you get a solid company at prices lower than before the legal drama. People should make their own decision in the end!
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肯定HIMS基本面与分销网络，批评做空机构
@moninvestor 从根本上说，$HIMS 是一家非常稳健的公司，拥有宝贵的分销网络。否则，如果它是一只没有基本面的 meme 股，我也不会提及它。话虽如此，我希望那些对 $HIMS 进行方向性做空的对冲基金得到他们应得的下场。 https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
英文原文
@moninvestor It is, fundamentally $HIMS is a very solid company with a valuable distribution network. Otherwise wouldn’t be mentioning it if it were a meme stock with no fundamentals. That being said, I hope those directional hedge fund shorting HIMS get what they deserve. https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
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HIMS宣布与NVO合作，高做空率或引发类似GME的空头挤压。
突发消息：$HIMS 首席执行官宣布与 $NVO 建立合作伙伴关系。 这证实了彭博社周五的报道。 鉴于超过40%的流通盘被做空，且与诺和诺德(Novo)的合作关系透明化： 下周该股将成为以下双方的战场： 散户 vs. 做空者。 如果散户获胜且不投降，可能会引发类似游戏驿站(GameStop)从3美元涨至150美元以上的最大规模空头挤压(short squeeze)之一。
英文原文
Just in: CEO of $HIMS announces partnership with $NVO. This is confirmation of the report on Friday from Bloomberg. With 40%+ of the float sold short and transparency around the Novo partnership: This next week will end up as a battleground stock for: Retail vs. Short Seller. And if retail wins and doesn’t capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+.
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博主庆祝粉丝破十万，感谢关注并重申坚持免费分享研究心得的初心。
哇……刚刚达到 10 万粉丝！ 很高兴这么多人觉得我对 $AAOI 到 $EWY 的观点有帮助。 回顾来看，我想这 largely 是因为我坚持了最初的做法： -> 信息综合 -> 寻找人们未曾关注的新角度 -> 从小型瓶颈到大型科技公司，发布可执行的交易思路 -> 如果结果正确就庆祝！ 我认为去年大部分案例： 从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 最终都看对了，实现了翻倍或三倍，因此近期人气高涨。 没多少人感兴趣于研究过程，但当他们两个月后看到成果时，我想他们开始更关注了？ 无论如何，我会继续做我在拥有 800 粉丝时做的事。那时只有我和一些 Reddit 上的朋友。 但 X 给我这个机会与他人分享想法，这太棒了。 达到 10 万粉丝对我来说是一种轻微的验证，表明我免费发布的想法至少值得阅读（即使你不跟随操作）。 所以，只想对你们所有人说声谢谢！
英文原文
Wow… 100K followers just now! Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful. From reflection, I think it’s largely because I’ve been staying true to what I’ve done at the start: -> information synthesis -> finding new angles that people haven’t looked at -> publishing actionable trade ideas from small bottlenecks to megacap companies. -> celebrating if they turn out correct! And I think majority of them from last year: From $AXTI to $LITE ended up being right and doubling or tripling, hence the recent popularity. Not many people are as interested in the research process but when they see the fruition of it two months later, I guess they start paying more attention? Regardless, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing when I had 800 followers. When it was just me and some friends from Reddit. But it’s amazing X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts to others. Hitting 100K followers is slight validation to me that my ideas I publish for free are at least worth reading (even if you don’t follow them). So, just wanted to say a thank you to all of you!
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AAOI暗示其美国产能超COHR，引发关注
@Blazedsin 我的意思是 $AAOI 基本上发出了信号，表明其美国产能大于 $COHR，这算是个挺大的新闻。
英文原文
@Blazedsin I mean $AAOI basically signaled their US production capacity is bigger than $COHR, which is pretty big news
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内部人士抛售非有效指标，应关注公司指引与盈利。
@Andandandwhat 使用上市公司内部人士抛售(Insider sales)作为指标，可能是任何人都能用的最愚蠢的指标。真正重要的是公司的业绩指引(company projections)和盈利(earnings)。人们有权获利了结(take profits)，有人卖出股票并不会改变营收(revenue)数据。
英文原文
@Andandandwhat Insider sales of public companies is perhaps the dumbest metric anyone can use. What matters is their company projections and earnings. People are free to take profits, someone selling shares doesn’t change revenue numbers
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$AAOI获超大规模客户大额订单，基本面验证优于内部人抛售担忧。
“$AAOI 收到来自主要超大规模客户的首笔 1.6T 数据中心光收发器(Transceivers) 2 亿美元批量订单” “我们预计很快将成为美国最大的 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器产能基地” 这逐渐证实了他们盈利预测中每月 3.78 亿美元的收入预期。 人们曾对内部人抛售感到恐慌，但关键在于执行力和基本面。 尤其是当他们获得来自 $AMZN、$META 或 $GOOGL 等超大规模客户(Hyperscalers)的批量订单时。
英文原文
$AAOI Receives First $200M Volume Order of 1.6T Data Center Transceivers from Major Hyperscale Customer” “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the U.S” This is gradual confirmation of $378m/month revenue from their earnings projections. People were panicking over insider sales, but what matters is execution and fundamentals. Especially when they’re getting volume orders from Hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, or $GOOGL
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指出无主观故意的市场崩盘难追责，致其反复发生。
@pepemoonboy 不幸的是，只要没有主观故意，犯错并导致股市崩盘并不违法。由于难以举证，他们就可以像本周看到的那样，一次又一次地重蹈覆辙而无需承担后果。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Unfortunately being wrong and crashing stock markets while at it is not illegal, as long as there’s no intent. Hard to prove, so they can just do it again and again without consequences as we’ve seen this week
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甲骨文澄清阿比林数据中心进展，回应彭博社引发的抛售。
彭博社关于 OpenAI 和 $ORCL 的报道在周五引发了大规模抛售。 涉及从 $LITE 到 $MU 的半导体供应链。 今天，甲骨文发布声明回应彭博社： “近期关于阿比林（Abilene）站点的媒体报道是虚假且不正确的。 首先，Crusoe 和甲骨文正紧密协作，以破纪录的速度交付全球最大的 AI 数据中心之一。 其次，甲骨文已完成额外 4.5GW 的租赁，以履行我们对 OpenAI 的承诺。” 此前，商务部周四已驳斥了关于 $NVDA 和 $AMD 出口管制的虚假报道。
英文原文
Bloomberg’s piece on OpenAI and $ORCL triggered a massive selloff Friday. Of the semi supply chain from $LITE to $MU. Today, Oracle put out a statement in response to Bloomberg: “Recent media activity about the Abilene site are false and incorrect. First, Crusoe and Oracle are operating in lockstep to deliver one of the world's largest AI Data centers in Abilene at record-breaking pace. Second, Oracle has completed leasing for the additional 4.5GW to deliver on our commitments to OpenAI.” This comes following the Department of Commerce denying the false reports around $NVDA and $AMD export controls on Thursday.
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澄清 $IREN 董事会即管理层，区别于普通工程师。
@LandoInvests @chiptomunk 我表述得很准确。董事会(Board of Directors)就是 $IREN 的管理层。如果是某个随机的工程师，那就不一样了。
英文原文
@LandoInvests @chiptomunk I phrased it correctly. Board of directors is $IREN management. If it were some random engineer, then no.
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指出 Mike Alfred 担任 IREN 董事
@chiptomunk 你难道不知道 Mike Alfred 是 $IREN 的董事会成员吗？
英文原文
@chiptomunk You do realize Mike Alfred sits on the board of $IREN right?
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光子学是AI新范式，需忍受波动，切勿使用杠杆。
如果有任何变化，我会发帖说明。包括关于 $AAOI 的情况。 不幸的是，目前市场交易主要受宏观因素和恐惧情绪驱动，除非基本面有像 $HIMS 那样极具颠覆性的变化，否则任何基本面消息都会被避险情绪所覆盖。 光子学(Photonics)是人工智能领域的新一轮范式转移，目前只是在等待度过未来一年的波动期。 不幸的是，许多人正经历着这样的回撤，这就是为什么不要使用杠杆(Margin)如此重要。
英文原文
If anything’s changed I would have posted about it. Including with $AAOI. Unfortunately market trades off macro + fear right now and any fundamentals if it’s not extremely game changing like $HIMS will override risk-off sentiment. Photonics is the new paradigm shift with AI, it’s just waiting out volatility over the next year. Unfortunately a lot of people have draw downs like these, which is why it’s important not to use margin.
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认为地缘政治不会导致科技巨头削减AI资本支出，成本分析优于需求预测。
@nengcunren2527 是的，我同意很多因素在于需求端，但我不认为“七巨头”(Mag7) 或 $GOOGL 会因为伊朗局势紧张而削减资本支出(capex)，从而在人工智能(AI)竞赛中输给了中国。 局势过于错综复杂，在战争升级的短短几天内，还无法对需求进行建模。但成本分析(cost analysis)则更具可操作性。
英文原文
@nengcunren2527 Yep agreed a lot of it is on demand side but I don’t think mag7 or $GOOGL is going to cut capex and lose the AI race to China over Iran tensions. It’s way too multifaceted and can’t model in demand yet from just a few days into war escalation. But cost analysis is more do-able.
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建议待SK海力士财报发布后两个月再行庆祝
@sch97426428 等 SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 发布财报后再过两个月回来庆祝吧
英文原文
@sch97426428 Come back in 2 months after SK Hynix releases earnings and celebrate
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AI存储股中断担忧被夸大，建议不加杠杆做多。
@dimitrisnatsis - 关于AI概念股（如存储芯片公司）面临中断的担忧被夸大了。 - 不要使用保证金(margin) - 中长期的多头头寸(longs)非常有吸引力。
英文原文
@dimitrisnatsis - Lot of fears regarding disruption of AI names like memory companies are overblown. - don’t use margin - medium-long term very compelling longs.
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SK海力士/三星基本面未受能源危机实质影响，恐慌性抛售提供买入机会。
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
英文原文
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.
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分析指出SK海力士和三星利润未受能源价格实质影响，市场情绪短期主导。
@jayjay12246 是的，我已经完成了分析，发现SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的营业利润并未受到石油、液化天然气(LNG)和氦气(Helium)的实质性影响。尽管表面看起来很吓人。人们短期内交易的是情绪。如果你的名字不是$HIMS，整体情绪看起来相当糟糕。
英文原文
@jayjay12246 Yeah, I’ve already done the analysis and found SK Hynix/Samsung operating income wasn’t very materially affected by Oil, LNG, and helium. Even though it looks very scary. People trade off sentiment short term. And sentiment looks pretty bad in general if your name is not $HIMS.
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指出HIMS积压订单激增，但对其后续走势持观望态度。
@frsinvesting 是的，我已经看到 $HIMS 积压了数百万美元的订单。不过我不确定这最终会如何演变，只是对当前局势进行评论。 https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
英文原文
@frsinvesting Yeah I’m already seeing millions in backlogged orders for $HIMS. Idk how it plus out though, just commentating in the situation. https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf