全部推文
共 6765 条 · 第 123 / 226 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
解析做空MSTR实为套利mnav溢价回归，非方向性做空且风险有限。
我认为情况比这稍显微妙。做空 $MSTR 的人同时也做多比特币，他们是在对 mnav（市值与净资产价值）溢价进行套利，使其从 1.8-2 倍的水平回归至 1 倍。他们并非方向性做空，且亏损通常有限，因为很难看到 MicroStrategy 的 mnav 涨至 2 倍或 4 倍。
英文原文
I think it's slightly more nuanced than this. People who are short $MSTR are also long Bitcoin and are arbitrating the mnav premium from 1.8-2 levels back to 1. They're not directionally short and losses are usually caped since hard to see mnav increasing to 2 or 4 for microstrategy.
-
提及ATOM本月巧合上涨80%。
@JorgeA76608 $ATOM 巧合的是，本月上涨了 80%。https://t.co/3ZF4d4DsLt
英文原文
@JorgeA76608 $ATOM coincidentally is up 80% this month. https://t.co/3ZF4d4DsLt
-
诉讼撤销与营收加速超预期，HIMS 周一走势值得关注。
@himshouse 确实如此，没人预料到诉讼被撤销和营收重新加速会同时发生。这就是为什么 $HIMS 流通盘的 40% 以上被做空。真正的惊喜总是有创造历史的潜力，我们周一见分晓。
英文原文
@himshouse It's true though, don't think anyone expected both the lawsuit to be dropped and revenue to re-accelerate at the same time. Hence why 40%+ of $HIMS float was sold short. Genuine surprises like always have the potential to make history, we'll see what happens on Monday.
-
最大回报源于亚洲供应链瓶颈及美系利基股，而非英伟达。
@pepemoonboy 经常看到这张图，所以花了很多时间做了一张新的！ 但这确实是事实，最大的回报大多来自亚洲的随机瓶颈环节，如日东纺(Nittobo)、宏碁(Macronix)和南亚玻璃(Nanya Glass)，以及美国玩家如 $SNDK 和 $LITE，而不是 $NVDA。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Kept seeing this image pop up a lot so spent a lot of time to make a new one! But it's genuinely true though, most of largest returns came from random bottlenecks in Asia like Nittobo, Macronix, and Nanya Glass to US players like $SNDK and $LITE instead of $NVDA.
-
真正超额收益来自控制铲子供应商所需的高价材料瓶颈。
当市场说“当所有人都去挖金矿时，卖出铲子”时，他们错了。为什么？真正的超额收益来自：对铲子供应商进行瓶颈控制。从$AXTI和$LITE的光子学衬底/EML激光器，到$SNDK向SK海力士供应NAND/DRAM，这些都是瓶颈环节。它们最终比那些聚集在$NVDA等铲子供应商周围的投资者更赚钱。这句谚语应该是：“当所有人都去挖金矿时，通过铲子供应商需要的高价材料来获利”。
英文原文
Markets have got it wrong when they say: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Sell Shovels" You know why? The real alpha comes from: Bottlenecking the Shovel Sellers. Substrates/EML lasers in photonics from $AXTI and $LITE. to $SNDK to Sk Hynix for NAND/DRAM are those bottlenecks. And they end up individually more profitable, than the investors who crowd around shovel sellers like $NVDA. The saying should go: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Profit off the Materials at jacked up prices that the Shovel Sellers need to Sell the Shovels".
-
存储涨价背景下，SK海力士回调是极佳买点。
@PronologieFR 三星前几天刚刚将NAND闪存价格翻倍，DRAM内存价格也上涨了。在我看来，SK海力士($SKHYNIX)在回调时看起来是一个极好的买入机会。市场对石油/液化天然气(LNG)进口的担忧被夸大了。
英文原文
@PronologieFR Samsung just doubled NAND prices the other day, DRAM prices hiked. imo SK Hynix looks like a terrific buy on the dip. Fears are overblown on oil/LNG imports.
-
打包购买多家金融科技龙头公司的成本约等于 Stripe。
@101010_jv Ayden - $330亿 $PYPL - $430亿 $HOOD - $690亿 $CRCL - $230亿 33+43+69+23。你实际上可以用和 Stripe 差不多的价格，把金融科技(Fintech)领域的所有领军企业打包买下来。
英文原文
@101010_jv Ayden - $33B $PYPL - $43B $HOOD - $69B $CRCL - $23B 33+43+69+23. You can literally put together all the leaders in Fintech for around the same price as Stripe.
-
对比光通信私有公司高估值与上市公司基本面，指出私有公司若上市恐崩盘。
在光通信(CPO)领域，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的内幕人士抛售行为，与公司创纪录的收入/利润形成实质性差异。与此同时，私有公司估值翻倍（例如从 $910亿涨至 $1590亿面向散户），而 $HOOD 到 $COIN 等上市公司却在暴跌。如果这些私有公司上市，其虚高的估值很可能导致股价崩盘，而上市公司基本面依然稳健。
英文原文
Insider selling on photonic names from $LITE to $AAOI while companies generate record revenue/profit is materially different. Private companies hike valuations by 2x (eg. $91B -> $159B to retail) while public companies from $HOOD to $COIN are crashing. If these companies traded publicly, most would all likely tank from their inflated valuations, while public companies are fundamentally sound.
-
RVI 开盘大跌，批评其持仓为高位套现提供流动性。
$RVI 现已上市，开盘下跌 16%。 很遗憾地说，如果你以 1590 亿美元的估值买入 Stripe 等公司，只是为了让员工和管理层套现； 同时以 750 亿美元的估值买入 Revolt，在其估值刚刚大幅飙升之后； 而与此同时，从 Ayden 到 $HOOD 等公开市场上的金融科技股正在暴跌。 你就是退出流动性（exit liquidity）。
英文原文
$RVI is now live and is down 16% on market open. Sorry to say, but if you’re buying companies like Stripe @ $159B valuations to cash out employees and executives. While buying Revolt @ $75B, after freshly jacked up valuations. All while fintechs in public markets from Ayden to $HOOD are tanking in public markets. You’re exit liquidity.
-
对比ENPH高SI增长与GME历史暴涨，探讨HIMS走势。
@EikonDD 是的，目前看来可能性很大。人们曾讨论过 $ENPH 在 14% 的销售收入(SI) 下翻倍，但现在是 40%+。 记得 $GME 那一年从 $3 涨到 $150 真的令人难忘。不认为我们会再看到那样的重演，但好奇 $HIMS 会走向何方。
英文原文
@EikonDD Yeah seems pretty likely at this point. People were talking about $ENPH doubling off 14% SI but this is 40%+ Was really memorable seeing $GME go from $3->$150 that one year. Don’t think we’ll ever see a repeat of that but curious where $HIMS heads.
-
HIMS遭空头猛烈做空，跌幅剧烈但反弹潜力同样巨大。
@yianisz 我最近几个月一直在看空头将 $HIMS 砸得粉碎。惊讶于他们竟能找到足够的股票借入并做空流通盘的 40%。虽然跌幅剧烈，但反之亦然（即空头回补也会引发剧烈反弹）。
英文原文
@yianisz I was just watching short sellers nuke $HIMS into the ground past few months. Was surprised they managed find enough shares to borrow and short 40% of the float. The drop was violent but it works in reverse too.
-
IREN稀释源于对冲套利非做空，HIMS方向性做空易引发轧空。
@BlackPantherCap $IREN 的 60 亿美元稀释来自自动取款机(ATM)增发和可转换票据对冲套利，并非真正的做空。$HIMS 主要是方向性做空，而上述情况实际上会引发空头挤压(Short Squeeze)。
英文原文
@BlackPantherCap $IREN is $6B dilution from an ATM and convertible note arbitrage from hedging, not actual shorts. $HIMS was primarily directional shorts, and these scenarios actually lead a short squeeze
-
HIMS利空出尽基本面反转，周一或现历史性空头挤压，作者计划买入。
周一可能创造历史。 因为历史上最大规模的空头挤压之一可能正在上演。 > 机构做空了 $HIMS 40% 的流通股（规模极大） > 预期其营收增长为 0 > 押注 FDA 和 $NVO 会让该公司破产 然而，所有转折都在一天内发生： > $HIMS 与 Novo Nordisk 的诉讼被撤销。 > Hims 营收突然再次加速。 > 与此同时，$HIMS 通过 Eucalyptus 扩展至加拿大、澳大利亚和日本。 > $HIMS 通过 Zava 扩展至英国和欧洲。 > 现在突然拥有了合法的全球分销网络、健康的资产负债表、与 $NVO 的合作关系，以及 40% 的流通股被做空。 可能没人预料到这一点。 尤其是那些认为 HIMS 会破产、现在面临数十亿美元无限亏损的空头。 我也曾看空 $HIMS，但这确实是一个巨大的反转故事。 两种可能的场景： 1. 如果所有空头周一同时平仓，可能会发生类似大众汽车式的空头挤压。 很可能一些空头为了风险管理想在其他人之前以 $22 的价格退出，这将引发即时的买盘压力。 2. 另一种场景是随着 $NVO 合作关系的建立，$HIMS 的增长重新点燃，并随着公司基本面改善，出现类似 $TSLA 式的缓慢挤压。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 $70，现在回到 $22，且兼具法律清晰度和营收加速。 我个人会在周一跳上这艘船，添柴加火，看看事态如何发展。 这可能是历史的缔造时刻。
英文原文
Monday could make history. As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold. > Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large) > expecting 0 revenue growth > betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company All in one day: > $HIMS lawsuit with Novo Nordisk dropped. > Hims sudden revenue acceleration begins again. > All while $HIMS expanded to Canada, Australia, and Japan via Eucalyptus in the meantime. > $HIMS expanded to UK and Europe with Zava > Now suddenly a legal global distribution network, healthy balance sheet, $NVO partnership, and 40% of the float shorted. Likely 0 people expected this. Especially short sellers who now face billions in infinite losses, that thought HIMS would be bankrupted. I was bearish on $HIMS too, but this is a massive turnaround story. The two likely scenarios: 1. One scenario is a Volkswagen-type short squeeze on Monday if all the short sellers tries to cover at once Monday It's very likely some short sellers want to exit before others do at $22 for risk-management and this causes immediate buying pressure. 2. The other scenario is growth in $HIMS reignited with the $NVO partnership and a slower $TSLA-style squeeze over time as company fundamentals improve. Given $HIMS was once trading at $70 and now it's back at $22, with both legal clarity + revenue acceleration. I would personally hop on the boat on Monday to add fuel to the fire to see where this heads. Could be history in the making.
-
IREN巨额ATM构成抛压，建议持有其他数据中心股。
@Agrippa_Inv 我们看看这对 $IREN 意味着什么。为持有者加油，但结构性上，60亿美元的定向增发(ATM)在任何反弹中都会对他们不利。这就是为什么持有其他没有如此巨大抛压和可能面临市值一半卖压的数据中心(DC)股票可能更好。
英文原文
@Agrippa_Inv We'll see how this bodes for $IREN. Cheering on the holders, but structurally the $6B ATM works against them in any rally. Which is why it's probably better to hold other DC stocks that don't have that large overhang and likely selling pressure of half the MC.
-
HIMS周一轧空或载入史册，空头措手不及
@tweet_tj 如果所有空头同时平仓，那场面将会相当滑稽。 $HIMS 周一的轧空(short squeeze)事件可能会载入史册，因为我认为所有人都措手不及，且最大流通盘(max float)已被做空。
英文原文
@tweet_tj It’s going to be pretty funny if all the shorts cover at the same time. $HIMS short squeeze Monday could genuinely be one for the history books since I think literally everyone was caught off guard + max float was shorted
-
HIMS 股价暴跌后现 22 美元吸引力，或成做多良机。
是的，即使在此之后，$HIMS 仍然下跌了超过 44%。市场此前已计入诉讼和收入损失的影响，但这一消息彻底颠覆了局面。根据新闻后续发展，这可能再次成为一个不错的做多机会。考虑到在风波爆发前股价交易区间为 50-60 美元，22 美元看起来是一个相当有吸引力的入场点。
英文原文
Yeah even after this $HIMS is still down way over 44%+. Markets were pricing in a lawsuit + revenue loss but this news just flipped everything on its head. Might be a good long again depending on how the news unfolds. But $22 looks like a pretty attractive entry point given they were trading in the $50s-$60s before all the drama began
-
HIMS与NVO合作消息令市场及空头意外
@pepemoonboy 我相当确定 $HIMS 的消息让所有人都措手不及，尤其是所有的空头。完全没想到 $HIMS 会和 $NVO 达成合作，这真是出乎意料。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Pretty sure the $HIMS news caught everyone off guard, especially all the short sellers. Did not expect a $HIMS partnership with $NVO out of all things.
-
HIMS监管风险解除且高做空比例，股价具备反弹潜力。
@demarscrypto 很多人在 $HIMS 50-70 美元时买入，因此即使现在股价为 22 美元，随着监管问题得到解决，看起来又具备了吸引力。此外，目前流通盘中有 40% 被做空，这为股价反弹增添了燃料。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Lot of people bought $HIMS, 50-$70, so even at $22 with the regulatory issues cleared up, looks good again. And now there’s 40% of the float shorted to add fuel to the fire
-
$HIMS 与 $NVO 和解合作，盘后大涨 37% 或引发逼空。
恭喜 $HIMS 的持有者，盘后股价回升 37%。 看来 $NVO 撤回了诉讼，并与 $HIMS 合作销售 NOVO 品牌的 GLP-1（胰高血糖素样肽-1）药物。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 70 美元，且一度成为被做空最多的股票之一。 看到因利好消息引发的逼空行情（Short Squeeze）我并不感到惊讶。
英文原文
Congrats to the $HIMS holders, stock back up 37% after hours. It looks like $NVO dropped the lawsuit and partnered with $HIMS to sell NOVO branded GLP-1s. Given HIMS was once trading at $70 and became one of the most shorted stocks. Would not be surprised to see a short squeeze off the positive news.
-
SpaceX 1.75 万亿估值远超光子学公司，抱怨无意义。
@andy_ay0 如果你还在抱怨那两家定义 AI 范式的 光子学(photonics) 公司估值高达 400 亿美元。等到你看到 SpaceX 估值 1.75 万亿美元时再说吧。
英文原文
@andy_ay0 If you're complaining about the two AI paradigm setting photonics companies at $40B valuations. Wait until you see SpaceX at $1.75T
-
复盘今日持仓表现，VRT符合预期，LITE与COHR意外。
@InFoTheLongTerm 鉴于预测市场赔率，我原本预期今天会是 $VRT。$LITE 和 $COHR 的表现则令人意外。
英文原文
@InFoTheLongTerm I expected $VRT today given prediction market odds. $LITE and $COHR together came in as a surprise.
-
看好LITE和COHR，受NVDA注资及Google资本支出扩张驱动。
它们现在的定价非常合理，我预计像 $LITE 这样的公司明年股价可能会达到 1000 美元以上。它们每家都刚刚从 $NVDA 获得了 20 亿美元的新增注资，且估值远高于当前股价，同时现在正获得数十亿美元的标普指数被动资金流入。因此，除了今天 AH 对 MM 的压制/小动作外，这在结构上为光子学(Photonics)板块带来了巨大的顺风。如果查看 Google TPU 的物料清单(BOM)，$LITE 约占 8-12%，而 Google 仅在今年的资本支出(capex)就大幅扩张（例如约 1800 亿美元）。我很确定这两家公司的 2028 年远期市盈率(fwd p/e)都在 20 年代中期或 30 年代初期，考虑到它们的增长（$COHR 业务全面，$LITE 在光电路交换(OCS)领域具有垄断地位），这是合理的。
英文原文
They're really well priced right now, and I expect companies like $LITE to probably end up $1000+ next year. Each of them just got $2B each in new funding from $NVDA at way higher share values and now have billions in S&P index passive inflows. So this is structurally a large tailwind for the photonics sector, minus AH MM pinning/shenanigans today. If you look at Google TPU BOM $LITE is ~8-12% of it and Google's expanding capex enormously this year alone (eg. ~$180B). Pretty sure both of them have 2028 mid ~20s or low 30s fwd p/e, which makes sense given their growth ( $COHR does everything, $LITE OCS monopoly).
-
认为$COHR已计入标普500资金流入，入场可能偏晚。
@Sam_Badawi 我觉得你可能已经错过 $COHR 的入场时机了。那根巨大的 0.076% 的K线可能已经计入了标普500指数新增的数十亿美元流入资金。
英文原文
@Sam_Badawi Think you might be late to $COHR. That large .076% candle might have already priced in the few billion of new inflow from the S&P 500.
-
COHR和LITE因纳入标普500指数，盘后大幅反弹。
市场对两家领先的光子学(Photonics)公司发布的突发新闻感到兴奋。 由于它们现在被纳入标普500指数(S&P 500)： $COHR 受此消息影响大幅上涨 .047%。 此前该股今日曾下跌 7.12%。 $LITE 受此消息影响上涨 1.27%。 此前该股今日曾下跌 14.19%。 这真是一次抛物线式的盘后反弹。
英文原文
Markets are excited about breaking news from the two leading photonics companies. As they are now included in the S&P 500: $COHR is up massive .047% on the news. This follows a 7.12% drop today. $LITE is up 1.27% on the news. This follows a 14.19% drop today. This is truly a parabolic after-hours rally.
-
驳斥NVDA/AMD出口管制误报，指出媒体煽动性报道影响算法。
我相当确定两者之间存在某种中间地带，甲骨文(Oracle)可能会推迟部分计划，而OpenAI/甲骨文通过CNBC发布消息表示建设仍在继续。 彭博社(Bloomberg)经常发布极其耸人听闻的文章，算法通常会随之跟进。 不过，昨天关于$NVDA和$AMD的虚假出口管制报道尤其恶劣。
英文原文
Pretty sure there’s some middle ground between the two with Oracle maybe delaying some parts of it while OpenAI/Oracle via CNBC putting out that the buildout is continuing. Bloomberg runs extremely sensational articles and algorithms usually follow that. Yesterday’s false export control reporting on $NVDA and $AMD was especially egregious though.
-
博主讽刺彭博社出口管制报道失实，称其不如宠物石头可信。
@Starter9191 在昨天彭博社(Bloomberg)关于出口管制的误导性报道之后，我的宠物石头比他们的头条新闻更值得信赖。
英文原文
@Starter9191 My pet rock is more trustworthy than Bloomberg headlines after yesterday’s export control misleading reporting.
-
澄清$ORCL与OpenAI合作计划正常，指出彭博报道误导。
@owenli25 新发布的新闻称，$ORCL 与 OpenAI 在“星际之门(Stargate)”项目上的计划仍按原定轨道推进。 看来彭博社(Bloomberg)的报道连续第二天产生了误导。 https://t.co/wRTrJCXkM2
英文原文
@owenli25 New news got published saying $ORCL plans with OpenAi remain on track with stargate. Looks like Bloomberg reporting was misleading for a second day in a row https://t.co/wRTrJCXkM2
-
澄清Oracle数据中心项目正常，视AI板块错杀为买入机会。
针对彭博社报道的最新回应：“Oracle与OpenAI的数据中心项目现有计划仍在按部就班进行。” 昨日因虚假的出口管制新闻，从$NVDA到$LITE的半导体板块遭遇暴跌。现在，关于$ORCL的消息是否会导致又一个类似的交易日？
英文原文
In a new response to Bloomberg article: “Existing plans for Oracle's data center project with OpenAi remain on track” The first Bloomberg report caused a crash in Semis from $NVDA to $LITE yesterday from false export control news. And now we have potentially another one day regarding involving $ORCL?
-
AI板块因OpenAI消息大跌，但META介入带来特定个股买入机会。
说实话，彭博社的标题竟然连续第二天导致半导体市场崩盘，这确实令人印象深刻。 $LITE 下跌 14.4% $NVDA 下跌 3.5% $TSM 下跌 4.4%。 消息是 Oracle 和 OpenAI 没有扩大其 Stargate 项目的一部分。 这看起来比昨天的报道更可信，因为 OpenAI 的“传染效应”正在蔓延。 但在文章最底部，他们补充道： $META 将介入并考虑从开发商 Crusoe 那里租赁位于德克萨斯州阿比林的规划扩建场地。 这看起来像是特定个股的买入机会，因为 AI 交易的范围现在已经远远超出了 OpenAI，并且现在由从 $GOOGL 到 $META 的盈利超大规模云服务商提供资金支持。
英文原文
It’s honestly impressive Bloomberg titles have managed to crash the Semi Market for a second day in a row. $LITE down 14.4% $NVDA down 3.5% $TSM down 4.4%. On the news that Oracle and OpenAI are not expanding a part of their Stargate project. This looks more legitimate than yesterday’s report as the OpenAI contagion is spreading. At the very bottom, they left added: $META, to step in and consider leasing the planned expansion site in Abilene, Texas, from developer Crusoe. This looks like a buying opportunity for specific names, as the AI trade has expanded far beyond OpenAI now and is now funded by profitable hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $META.
-
博主引用推文，讽刺IREN融资申报为共产主义宣传。
@daniel_koss 我最喜欢这一条，它称 $IREN 的 60 亿美元 ATM（自动取款机融资）申报是共产主义宣传。https://t.co/tfVo9AWJZM
英文原文
@daniel_koss This one is my favorite for saying the $IREN $6B ATM filing is communist propaganda. https://t.co/tfVo9AWJZM