· 个股论点
它们现在的定价非常合理，我预计像 $LITE 这样的公司明年股价可能会达到 1000 美元以上。它们每家都刚刚从 $NVDA 获得了 20 亿美元的新增注资，且估值远高于当前股价，同时现在正获得数十亿美元的标普指数被动资金流入。因此，除了今天 AH 对 MM 的压制/小动作外，这在结构上为光子学(Photonics)板块带来了巨大的顺风。如果查看 Google TPU 的物料清单(BOM)，$LITE 约占 8-12%，而 Google 仅在今年的资本支出(capex)就大幅扩张（例如约 1800 亿美元）。我很确定这两家公司的 2028 年远期市盈率(fwd p/e)都在 20 年代中期或 30 年代初期，考虑到它们的增长（$COHR 业务全面，$LITE 在光电路交换(OCS)领域具有垄断地位），这是合理的。
They're really well priced right now, and I expect companies like $LITE to probably end up $1000+ next year. Each of them just got $2B each in new funding from $NVDA at way higher share values and now have billions in S&P index passive inflows. So this is structurally a large tailwind for the photonics sector, minus AH MM pinning/shenanigans today. If you look at Google TPU BOM $LITE is ~8-12% of it and Google's expanding capex enormously this year alone (eg. ~$180B). Pretty sure both of them have 2028 mid ~20s or low 30s fwd p/e, which makes sense given their growth ( $COHR does everything, $LITE OCS monopoly).