· 个股论点
涉及标的： $AAOI$AXTI$COHR$IQE$LITE$TSEM
$AXTI 是我的个人最爱，因为其衬底/原料被用于任何光子学瓶颈环节。我只需要有人加入他们的董事会，告诉他们自己是半垄断地位并提价。关于时间框架：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 可能在未来两年因需求激增而迎来高光时刻。由于共封装光学(CPO)的影响，可插拔光模块的指数级增长曲线可能在 2028 年略有放缓，因此对类似中际旭创/新易盛的玩家会更谨慎。$AAOI 自产激光器，所以如果有转型时间，我确信他们会通过认证。简而言之：最安全的是 $COHR，他们业务广泛多元化。最高上行空间可能是 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI，鉴于其起点较小。Soitec 和 $TSEM 有显著上行空间，两年内可能翻倍或翻三倍。但 2026 年可能是死钱。
$AXTI is my personal favorite since inp substrate/feedstock is used across any photonics bottleneck. I just need someone to join their board and tell them that they're a semi-monopoly and to price hike. For timeframes: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp. The exponential curve for pluggables probably dwindles a tiny bit in 2028 from cpo? So would be more cautious with innolight/eoptolink type players. $AAOI manufactures their own lasers, so I'm sure they'll get qualified if there's any time for a pivot. TLDR: For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified. Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point. Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years. But probably dead capital for 2026.