个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 32 / 45 页
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对比NBIS的高增长潜力与SMCI的估值修复机会。
所以是不同的股票组合。我会这样解读： - $NBIS：高贝塔值，超高速增长，未来走向难料。潜在上行空间最大（核心业务同比增长700%，Robotaxi FSD部门等4家子公司同比增长100%+）。 例如，如果$UBER本月在德克萨斯州与Avride合作的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）发布顺利并扩展至其他地区，我们可能会看到该子公司估值大幅上升。 - $SMCI：盈利，估值修复带来中等回报（仍有~30-60%的回报空间）。同比增长60%，但远期市盈率仅为11倍，像$PYPL这样的零增长股或像$MSTR这样的困境资产。 对于SMCI，更多是看数据和行业，发现错配（例如$UPWK的价值投资逻辑）。
英文原文
So different basket of stocks. How I'd frame it is: - $NBIS: high-beta, hyper growth, who knows where it goes. Highest possible upside (700% Y/Y core business, 100%+ Y/Y across 4 subsidiaries like Robotaxi FSD division). For example if $UBER Texas robotaxi launch goes well with Avride this month and they expand elsewhere, we could see the subsidiary valuation rise a lot. - $SMCI: profitable, moderate return from valuation catchup (still ~30-60% return). Growing 60% Y/Y but priced at 11 forward p/e like a no-growth stock eg. $PYPL / distressed asset like $MSTR. For SMCI it's more about looking at the numbers/sector and seeing a misalignment (eg. $UPWK value investing)
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看好$LITE因TPU放量潜力，虽追高但仍决定定投建仓。
有点遗憾我加入 $LITE 派对晚了，它现在正处于历史高点(ATH)。但如果看看 $NVDA 从2022年到现在发生了什么，如果张量处理单元(TPU)最终成为推理领域的主导力量，同样的情况也可能发生。而且，$LITE 与 TPU 的放量直接相关。遗憾的是，我此前没有意识到它对生态系统有多么关键。这是我正在通过成本平均法(Cost Averaging)建仓的标的，虽然有点晚，但很高兴将其加入我的投资组合。
英文原文
Yeah little sad I'm late to the $LITE party and it's ATHs right now. But if we look what happened to $NVDA 2022 to now, same could happen if TPU ends up becoming a dominant player in inference. and.. $LITE is directly correlated to TPU ramp up. Sadly didn't realize how vital it was to the ecosystem earlier. This is something I'm cost averaging shares with but it's a happy add to my portfolio.
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CoreWeave CEO称其自研软件栈是核心竞争优势。
对于 $CRWV，其CEO表示，正是其软件编排(software orchestration)能力，使他们能够将裸机(bare metal)转变为功能完备的超级计算机。CNBC上有一段5分钟的采访涉及此话题。 另一段采访： “CEO强调了CoreWeave的定制软件栈(custom-built software stack)，他认为这将在长期使公司脱颖而出。他表示：‘从我们的角度来看，我们真的相信，随着时间的推移，将我们与他人区分开来的……是驱动我们在基础设施上实现性能的……软件栈。’ Intrator补充说，CoreWeave的软件栈是从零开发的，以优化为指导原则。”
英文原文
For $CRWV its software orchestration according that allows them to turn bare metal into fully functioning supercomputers to their CEO. There’s a 5 min CNBC interview on this Another interview: “The CEO highlighted CoreWeave’s custom-built software stack, which he believes will set the company apart in the long run. He stated, “From our position, we really believe that over time, what’s going to differentiate us from anyone else is the … software stack that drives the performance that we’re able to achieve on our infrastructure.” Intrator added that CoreWeave’s software stack was developed from scratch, with optimization as the guiding principle. “
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CRCL暴跌主因是禁售期解禁与流通盘动态，而非仅因降息。
所以，这在一定程度上是正确的。然而我认为 $CRCL 下跌约 50% 的主要原因在于禁售期(lockups)和流通盘(float)动态，而不仅仅是利率降息。我们在 $BULL 首次公开募股(IPO)时就见过这种情况，其以 2% 的流通盘交易，市值一度超过 500 亿美元，但在禁售期结束后暴跌回 60 亿美元。据我记忆，$CRCL 仅以有限的流通盘（约 17%）进行交易，且最近又有 3400 多万股解禁。
英文原文
So, this is partially true. However I’d argue the main reason for $CRCL ~50% drop was lockups and float dynamics, not just rate cuts. We saw this with $BULL ipo where it traded on 2% float upward of $50B and crashed back to $6B post lockup. $CRCL was only trading with a limited float (~17%) if I remember correctly, and another 34M+ got unlocked recently.
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作者基于技术背景看空ETH，认为其核心机制恶化，同时提及BMNR。
诉诸权威的论证是最糟糕的，因为没有推理过程就毫无价值。以太坊尤其如此，当你看到其核心方面发生负面变化时更是如此（我们从分片(L1 Scaling)转向L2，$ETH代币也从因使用而增值的Gas费代币转变为治理/抵押品代币）。如果你想了解我的背景，我发明了如今大多数钱包使用可信执行环境(TEE)进行密钥签名的方法。我曾在加州大学伯克利分校研究过权益证明(DPoS)和秘密共享。所以我知道得足够多，可以发表评论。我们看看价格会怎么走，这是我个人看空的原因，人们可以自由地用他们自己的钱买入$BMNR并持有$ETH。
英文原文
Arguments from authority are the worst ones because they hold no merit without any reasoning. With Ethereum especially this is true when you see core aspects of it changing in a negative way (we went from L1 scaling with sharding -> L2s, and $ETH token going from a gas token that appreciated from usage to governance/collat). If you want my background though, I invented how most wallets nowadays do key signatures with TEEs. And I was a researcher in dpos + secret sharing back at UC Berkeley. So I do know a tiny bit enough to comment. We'll see where the price goes, it's my individual thesis on why I'm bearish, people are free to buy $BMNR and hold $ETH with their own money.
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以太坊L2降低费用削弱ETH通缩，作者看空ETH及BMNR。
这进一步印证了我的观点。L2（二层网络）的数据可用性（Data Availability）成本更低，虽有利于扩展性，但无法解决价值向 ETH 回流的问题。我一直认为以太坊实现了扩展，且是极佳的开发网络。但这以牺牲 $ETH 升值潜力为代价，因此我对 $BMNR 也持看跌态度。ETH 的 L2 构想最初对币价有利，因为稀缺的区块空间加上使用量上升形成了费用/销毁飞轮。但：Fusaka 升级 -> 更多 Blob -> 更便宜的数据可用性 -> 更低的 L2 费用。这对 ETH 的费用/销毁机制不利。此前 L1 使用带来的代币销毁是价格升值的首要机械驱动力（如 EIP-1559、合并 -> 通缩），但这已消失。除非情况改变，否则我会继续使用以太坊网络，但绝不会将其代币作为投资标的。
英文原文
So, that just reinforced my point more. L2s get even cheaper data availability, which is good for scaling but doesn't address value accrual to ETH. I've maintained Ethereum managed to scale. And it's a great network to develop on. But all that at the cost of $ETH appreciation, which is why I'm bearish also on $BMNR. ETH's L2 idea was originally good for ETH price because scarce blockspace + rising usage = fee/burn flywheel. But: Fusaka -> more blobs -> cheaper DA -> lower L2 fees. Not good for ETH fee/burn. Token burn from L1 usage was the #1 mechanical driver of price appreciation (eg. EIP-1559, Merge - > deflationary) before but that disappeared. Until that changes, I'll keep using Ethereum as a network but I will absolutely stay away from the token as an investment.
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ETH网络成功但代币逻辑弱化，对ETH及BMNR持看空观点。
$ETH 最初且简单的投资逻辑是：更多网络使用 -> 更多 Gas 需求 -> 更高的 ETH 价格。 正如你所说，在 L2 + Blobs/EIP-4844 之后，价值体现方式已不同。生态系统使用量 ↑↑↑，L1 Gas + 销毁 ↓。 这也是我对 ETH 作为代币/ $BMNR 作为投资载体持负面看法的原因。以太坊作为网络获胜（它确实赢了）与 $ETH 代币价格上涨是有区别的。 与现已消失的使用量带来的机械性上涨相比，抵押品等经济挂钩极其微弱。
英文原文
The original and simple investment thesis for $ETH was: more network usage -> more gas demand -> higher ETH price . As you mentioned this is no longer the case since value shows up differently after L2s + blobs/EIP-4844. Ecosystem usage ↑↑↑, L1 gas + burn ↓. And this is where I have a negative view of ETH as a token/ $BMNR as a holding vehicle for investment. There's a difference of Ethereum winning as a network (it did), and $ETH token appreciating in price. Economic hooks like collateral, etc. are extremely weak compared to mechanical upside from usage that is now gone.
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ETH网络增长但价值外流，L2导致销毁量低，高价下投资逻辑失效。
以太坊网络本身正在增长。但 Vitalik 扩展以太坊的方式将经济价值从资产本身推开了。 这就是让 $ETH / $BMNR 在 $4K 以上成为糟糕投资（尽管是好交易）的残酷经济现实。 L2 削弱了持有者的价值捕获，因为数据可用性(DA)和区块空间(blockspace)并非如此运作（10倍使用量 -> 10倍 DA 费用 -> 10倍销毁）。生态系统使用量创历史新高，但 $ETH 销毁量却处于历史低位(ATL)，这正是展示这种差异的关键指标。 压缩的低成本 Blob 意味着数十亿级的 L2 活动仅转化为极少量的主网 ETH 支出。 主网每天仅销毁数十枚 ETH，远低于 EIP-4844 之前的数百/数千枚。你说得对，L2 确实改变了 ETH 的价值捕获机制……通过将其移出 ETH。 你可以争论作为抵押品资产的投资选项和价值捕获的转移。但最初证明 ETH 作为投资合理性的主要代币经济学已不复存在： ETH 作为资产的价格不再与网络使用量成比例增长。
英文原文
Ethereum's network itself is growing. But the way Vitalik scaled Ethereum pushed economic value away from the asset. That's the sad economic reality that makes $ETH / $BMNR a terrible investment above $4K (it's a good trade). L2's weakened value accrual for holders because it doesn't work this way with DA and blockspace (10x usage -> 10x DA fees -> 10x burn). Ecosystem usage hits new highs, yet $ETH burn ATLs is exactly what you look at to show this disparity. Compressed, low-cost blobs mean that billions in L2 activity translate into only a tiny amount of ETH spent on mainnet Mainnet is burning tens of eth a day, down from hundreds/thousands a day before EIP-4844. You're right by saying L2s have genuinely changed ETH's value accrual mechanics... by moving it off of ETH. You can argue collateral asset as a investment option and a shift of value accrual. But the main token economics that originally justified ETH as an investment doesn't exist anymore: ETH price as an asset no longer scales proportionately with network usage.
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ETH因L2抽离价值致主网收入崩塌，代币缺乏投资吸引力。
最后，@VitalikButerin 完美指出了我对 $ETH 看空以及 @fundstrat 的 $BMNR 的原因。 $ETH 作为一种代币是极差的投资，尤其是在 $4K 以上时。 这是 Tom Lee、Cathie Wood 的 ARK 创新基金、Vitalik 等人没有理解的一点： 以太坊网络(Ethereum network)与作为实用代币的 ETH 之间存在脱节。 以太坊网络（正在增长）的增长并不转化为代币价格的上涨。 如果你在 2021 年底附近买入 $ETH，你会亏钱。与此同时，$BTC 的价格自那时以来上涨了接近 300%。为什么？ 二层网络(Layer 2s)。 1. Vitalik 在过去几年鼓励用户转向 L2（如 Base）。结果现在这些网络处理数十亿的交易量，但所有费用都流向了像 Coinbase（排序器 sequencer）这样的公司，而不是以太坊的验证者。 2. L2 支付存储数据的费用，但这与它们从以太坊主网(Ethereum mainnet)抽离的经济价值相比微乎其微。 就是这样。L2 抽走了利润和活动，而以太坊网络几乎收不到任何数据存储费。价值积累(Value accrual)流向了像 Coinbase 这样的公司，而不是 ETH 代币持有者。 以太坊网络使用量创历史新高，但主网收入崩溃，持有代币作为投资几乎没有经济激励。 除非有协议变更能从 L2 活动中为 ETH 代币产生合理的价值积累，否则不要将 ETH 作为投资。
英文原文
Finally, @VitalikButerin perfectly pointed out why I’m bearish on ETH, and @fundstrat’s $BMNR. $ETH as a token is a terrible investment, especially above $4K. This is what Tom Lee, Cathie Wood’s ARK innovation, Vitalik and others didn’t understand: There is a disconnect between Ethereum as a network and ETH as a utility token. Ethereum network (that’s growing) does not translate to the token price appreciating. If you bought $ETH near the end of 2021, you would have lost money. Meanwhile $BTC price has appreciated close to 300% since then. Why? Layer 2s. 1. Vitalik encouraged users to move to L2s (like Base) over the past few years. As a result now these networks move billions in volume but all fees go to companies like Coinbase (sequencer) not validators on Ethereum. 2. L2s pay fees to store their data but this is just incredibly minimal compared to the economic value they siphoned off of Ethereum mainnet. That’s it. Layer 2s siphoned off profit, activity, while the Ethereum’s network receives barely anything for data storage. Value accrual went to companies like Coinbase, not ETH token holders. Ethereum’s Network usage is at an all-time high, but Mainnet revenue has collapsed and there’s little economic incentive to hold the token as an investment. Unless there’s protocol changes that generate reasonable value accrual to the ETH token from L2 activity, don’t bother with ETH as an investment.
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IREN单季签约容量大增，展现强大执行力与护城河优势。
哦，看来 @babyfolio 已经替我回答了！ 从 1 GW 到 2.5 GW 的指导性签约容量（Guided Contracted Capacity），仅一个季度就实现这样的增长已经非常惊人。稍微调整一下大家的预期，GW 级容量是一道护城河（Moat），而 $IREN 在这道护城河上坚守了最长时间。 因此，能在短短一个季度内实现与 $IREN 的中长期对等，这表现堪称惊艳。 话虽如此，正如 babyfolio 所说，我认为 2.5 GW 这一数据已经大大超出了我的预期哈哈，但如果他们能在一个季度内实现 250%+ 的增长，他们可能再次做到。所以在这些情况下，你只需信任管理层的执行力（Management Execution）。
英文原文
oh looks like @babyfolio answered that for me! Going from 1 GW to 2.5 GW guided contracted capacity is already amazing from just 1 quarter. Just to tamper your expectations a bit, GW capacity is a moat and one that $IREN held for the longest time. So to achieve medium-long term parity with $IREN in just 1 quarter is spectacular. That being said, I think the 2.5 GW already kinda blew away my expections like babyfolio said haha, but if they're able to increase 250%+ in 1 quarter, they could do it again. So in these cases, you just trust in management execution.
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NBIS产能指引大增追平IREN，长期竞争力趋同
事实上，截至第三季度财报，$NBIS 将其签约产能指引提高了2.5倍，并在长期层面几乎追平了 $IREN。然而，$IREN 在前置并网产能（现在至2026年上半年）方面拥有巨大价值。但从2026年下半年起，$NBIS 在这方面似乎已迎头赶上（截至Q3，签约电力指引从3 GW调整为2.5 GW）。
英文原文
So actually as of Q3 earnings, $NBIS 2.5x'd its contracted capacity guidance and achieved near long-term parity with $IREN. However, $IREN has a tremendous amount of value in front loaded grid-connected capacity (now -> H1 2026). But H2 2026 onwards, $NBIS looks like it caught up in that front (3 GW to 2.5 GW contracted power guided as of Q3)
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回应反馈，重申对NBIS作为十年一遇机会的高置信度持仓逻辑。
感谢反馈，我会铭记于心，并照常发布其他主题的内容！ 我昨天发布了关于 $NVDA 等标的的深度研究(DD)，但正如你提到的，近期内容主要集中在 NeoCloud 板块。我之所以聚焦于此，是因为近期新闻密集，且巨大的抛售引发了大量关注！ 具体到 $NBIS，这是我持仓两年中信心最高的一笔投资。我认为这是继 $NVDA 之后十年来难得的机会，你很少看到一家核心公司净利润同比增长 700%，同时旗下 4 家投资组合公司净利润均实现 100% 的同比增长。 其中一家恰好是一家非常酷的自动驾驶 Robotaxi 公司（我是 Waymo 和 $TSLA Robotaxi 的粉丝）。
英文原文
Thanks for the feedback, I'll take it to heart and do posts on other stuff as usual! I posted DD about stuff like $NVDA yesterday but recently as you mentioned it's been mainly about the neocloud sector. I've been focused on it because of how much news there was recently + the huge sell off attracted a lot of attention! For $NBIS in specific, it was my highest conviction 2 year hold. I just see it as the opportunity of a decade since $NVDA, you don't really see any core company growing its bottom line 700% Y/Y with 4 separate portfolio companies growing 100% Y/Y. One of which happens to be a super cool self-driving robotaxi company (I'm a fan of Waymo, $TSLA robotaxis).
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重申看好IREN及新云板块，特别看好其高增长副业。
@babyfolio 自从我发布最初的论点帖子以来，我一直看好 $IREN 以及新云(neocloud)板块！ 我只是恰好对那家作为副业(side quest)拥有4家投资组合公司且同比增长100%+的企业极度看好。
英文原文
@babyfolio I've always been bullish on $IREN and the neocloud sector since my original thesis post! I just happen to be mega bullish on the one that has 4 portfolio companies growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside it as a side quest.
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澄清 $MSFT 交易估算差异及图表错误，确认 H100 数据有效。
你在 $MSFT 这笔交易上的看法是对的。我在托管设施(Colocation)方面使用了混合估算值，$NBIS 在其他地点拥有设施，但对于 $MSFT 这笔特定的独立交易，托管费会有所不同。此外，我在进行 GPU 标准化(GPU normalization)的不同对比时，用错了图表。右侧的 H100 标准化数据仍然有效。
英文原文
You're right on the $MSFT deal. I used blended estimates for colocation, $NBIS owns facilities in other location but for specific $MSFT deal standalone, the colocation fee would be different. Also was doing different comparisons for GPU normalization, and used the wrong chart. H100 normalization on the right should still stand.
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看好NBIS为行业龙头，静待市值超越CRWV。
@babyfolio 在我看来，它已经是明确的领导者！只等市场将 $NBIS 的未来增长/利润率计入定价，使其市值超越 $CRWV。
英文原文
@babyfolio It’s already the clear leader in my view! Just waiting for market to price in $NBIS forward growth/margins and the marketcap overtaking $CRWV.
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TPU虽具竞争力，但NVDA积压订单提供中期保障，难构成看跌。
是的，话题是关于TPU v7 Ironwood作为首个对$NVDA构成竞争替代的产品，在特定推理工作负载上表现更优。目前$NVDA的积压订单是中期的安全垫。关键问题在于TPU能否持续优于Nvidia旗舰GPU（我的答案是否定的，随着下一代发布）。然而，如果以下情况发生，则构成看跌逻辑：- TPU持续优于$NVDA旗舰GPU；- 人们更倾向于选择TPU而非NVDA芯片；- AI算力需求减弱，且$NVDA的GPU未完全售罄。
英文原文
Yeah, the topic was about how the TPU v7 Ironwood is the first competitive alternative to $NVDA and performs better for specific inference workloads. The current $NVDA backlog is a security guarantee for medium term. It's just a question of whether TPUs continue to outperform Nvidia's flagship GPUs (my answer is probably not, with the next gen release). It is a bear case, however, if - TPUs continues to outperform $NVDA flagship GPUs - people want TPUs over NVDA chips. - AI compute demand lessens, and $NVDA is not fully sold out of GPUs.
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对比GOOGL与NVDA，认为前者风险更低，后者潜在回报更高。
$GOOGL 具有非对称上行潜力。张量处理单元(TPU) 只是搜索、Waymo、YouTube 及其他业务之外的一个“支线任务”。 $NVDA 若 AI 随机器人/智能体指数级爆发，且其新模型在训练/推理性能上大幅超越其他供应商，则上行空间更大。 由于无法预知结果，同时持有两者无妨，但 Google 显然是两者中风险较低的选择。
英文原文
$GOOGL for asymmetrical upside. TPUs is just a side quest among search, Waymo, YouTube, and less other things. $NVDA for much higher upside in case AI continues taking off exponentially with robotics/agents and they end up leapfrogging all other providers in both trading/inference performance in their newer models. Doesn’t hurt to own both since it’s impossible to know, but Google is clearly the less risky of the two
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澄清NVDA与TPU性能对比误区，重申NVDA短期订单安全及长期技术优势。
是的，$NVDA 是强力买入标的。 然而，其他关于 $NVDA GPU 与 TPU 性能对比的病毒式传播的研究帖子，错误地拿旧一代 TPU v6e 来对比，以展示当前 $GOOGL TPU 与 $NVDA GPU 的情况。 我的帖子是关于新一代 TPU v7 Ironwood 与 $NVDA Blackwell B200 的对比，并展示了架构上的对等性。 TPU v7 Ironwood 的性能飞跃非常巨大（计算能力提升高达 10 倍），以至于 X 上流传的许多关于 TPU 推理能力和成本节约的研究具有误导性。 就买入逻辑而言，$NVDA 很可能在未来几代芯片中超越 TPU v7，且其巨大的积压订单为其提供了短期（2年）的安全性。
英文原文
Yes $NVDA is a strong buy. However to the other viral research posts about $NVDA GPU vs TPU performance, they were falsely comparing older generation TPU v6e to show the current situation on $GOOGL TPU vs $NVDA GPU. My post was on newer TPU v7 Ironwood vs $NVDA Blackwell B200 and showing the architectural parity. The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump) that a lot of research going around X is misleading on the inference capabilities and cost savings of TPU. In terms of buy thesis, on $NVDA, they will likely leapfrog TPU v7 in newer gen chips in due time and their immense backlog provides them near term (2Y) security.
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NVDA短期强烈买入，下一代芯片优势明显，市场未放缓。
哈哈，我之前在 $NVDA 的公关稿下当“神评论” trolling（嘲讽/玩梗）火了。所以想帮我的哥们 Jensen 一把，写写关于 TPU vs GPU 争论的看法，以及股价下跌是否反应过度。给快速浏览的朋友划重点： - 基于订单积压（Backlog）的可见性，短期强烈买入。 - $NVDA 下一代芯片很可能在技术上超越 TPU。 - AI 市场正在扩张，我们没有看到放缓迹象。 - 唯一需要担心的是，如果人们刻意去买 TPU/AMD，即下一代超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）芯片，那也只有在 $NVDA 生产的任何 GPU 都卖断货的情况下才会发生。
英文原文
lol I was top comment trolling $NVDA's press release that went viral. so wanted to do my buddy Jensen a solid by writing up thoughts on TPU vs GPU arguments + whether stock drop was an overreaction. So TLDR for people skimming the post: - strong buy near term from backlog visibility - nvda next-gen chips will likely leapfrog tpu - ai expanding market, we're not seeing it slow down. - only thing to worry about is if people go out of their way to buy TPUs/AMD, next gen hyperscaler chips if and only if NVDA stops selling out of any GPUs they make.
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英伟达虽面临谷歌TPU等定制芯片竞争，但中期统治力稳固，逢低买入。
英伟达($NVDA)公布的2026财年Q3营收为570.1亿美元(+62.5% YoY)，表现强劲。并指引Q4营收超650亿美元(超预期30亿美元+)，以及通过CY 2026年Blackwell/Rubin系列营收超5000亿美元。尽管如此，股价仍下跌12%。现在$NVDA是强力买入吗？答案如下： $GOOGL的TPU项目成为首个对$NVDA GPU构成竞争替代的方案，Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，Meta据报道正在就数十亿美元的TPU采购进行高级别谈判。沃伦·巴菲特近期也向$GOOGL投资超40亿美元，鉴于伯克希尔对科技股保守的投资立场，这极为罕见。 尽管创下盈利新高，英伟达股价在过去10个交易日中有6天下跌，较10月29日触及5.03万亿美元市值时的历史高点$207.04下跌约12-15%。 分析师反应普遍看多，普遍上调目标价： - Evercore ISI从$261上调至$352 - 美银从$235上调至$275 - 花旗从$220上调至$270 - 高盛从$240上调至$250 - 摩根士丹利从$220上调至$235 但这里有个价值万亿美元的问题：超大规模客户日益增长的定制硅片威胁是否会削弱英伟达在AI领域的统治地位？ 与主要捕捉英伟达GPU缺货时的溢出需求的$AMD不同，谷歌的TPU项目代表了根本不同的竞争动态。 TPU v7 Ironwood是首款在性能上与Blackwell持平的非英伟达加速器，提供4.6 petaflops的FP8性能（对比B200的4.5 petaflops），配备192GB HBM3e内存。 Ironwood的架构差异化显著。虽然英伟达最大的集群配置为72个GPU(NVL72)，TPU Ironwood可扩展至9,216个芯片组。 客户斩获显著且不断增长： - Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，价值“数百亿美元”，1GW算力即将上线。 - Meta正在就2026年从谷歌云租赁TPU容量进行高级别谈判，并计划2027年直接采购硬件用于自有数据中心。 - 苹果透露Apple Intelligence基础模型完全在TPU上训练，使用8,192颗TPUv4芯片用于服务器模型。 - Midjourney从GPU转向TPU，推理成本降低65%（从每月200万美元降至70万美元）。 定位微妙。TPU在超大规模推理方面表现出色，在生产级大规模服务中成本性能最高提升4倍（目前）。在训练方面，英伟达优势明显。 对于高度优化的推理任务，TPU架构可能比$NVDA的通用GPU更高效。 然而，我预计下一代英伟达GPU将在许多场景下在推理性能上超越TPU。（类似于LLM之间GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5的迭代超越） 我们看到： 谷歌TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta MTIA、微软Maia和定制超大规模芯片都在扩展，但仍依赖$NVDA。但超大规模客户集体减少对英伟达的依赖，其累积效应是否会削弱英伟达的统治地位？ 答案：不会。至少未来两年统治地位稳固。之后如何纯属猜测。 仅看数据：Q3结果证实公司仍是AI不可或缺的基础设施提供商，5000亿美元的订单积压为2026年提供了极高的可见性。 但市场似乎正在定价3年+后的这种微妙现实：长期面临超大规模客户定制芯片的竞争不确定性。 英伟达产能完全售罄，且很可能在下一代芯片中超越TPU性能（推理性能更高且保持通用性）。但定制硅片威胁和44倍市盈率的估值担忧仍是逆风。 无论如何，鉴于出色的超预期财报和未来两年的订单积压，$NVDA目前因恐惧而下跌，似乎是中期强力逢低买入的机会。 你只需要记住这一点： 只要英伟达仍是AI工作负载的行业首选，且TPU和AMD GPU仅在需求超过英伟达供应时填补空白，它就是强力买入标的。 英伟达订单积压已满，AI需求并未放缓。
英文原文
Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026. Despite that, the stock dropped 12%. Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer: $GOOGL TPU's program emerged as the first competitive alternative to $NVDA GPUs, with Anthropic committing to over 1 million TPU chips and Meta reportedly in advanced negotiations for billions in TPU purchases. Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments. Despite a record earnings beat, Nvidia's stock has declined in six of the last ten trading sessions and sits roughly 12-15% below its October 29 all-time high of $207.04, when it briefly touched a $5.03 trillion market cap. Analyst reaction was overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets raised across the board: - Evercore ISI raised to $352 from $261 - Bank of America raised to $275 from $235 - Citigroup raised to $270 from $220 - Goldman Sachs raised to $250 from $240 - Morgan Stanley raised to $235 from $220 But here's the trillion dollar question: will the emerging custom silicon threat from hyperscalers reduce NVIDIA dominance in AI? Unlike $AMD, which primarily captures overflow demand when NVIDIA GPUs are unavailable, Google's TPU program represents a fundamentally different competitive dynamic. TPU v7 Ironwood is the first non-NVIDIA accelerator that achieves performance parity with Blackwell, delivering 4.6 petaflops of FP8 performance (versus B200's 4.5 petaflops) with 192GB HBM3e memory. Ironwood's architectural differentiation is substantial. While NVIDIA's largest cluster configuration is 72 GPUs (NVL72), TPU Ironwood scleaes to 9,216 chip pods. The customer wins are significant and growing: - Anthropic committed to over 1 million TPU chips worth "tens of billions of dollars," with 1 gw of compute capacity coming online. - Meta is in advanced negotiations to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in 2026, with direct hardware purchases for its own data centers planned for 2027. - Apple revealed that Apple Intelligence foundation models were trained entirely on TPUs using 8,192 TPUv4 chips for server models - Midjourney switched from GPUs to TPUs and reduced inference costs by 65% (from $2M to $700K monthly) The positioning is nuanced. TPUs excel at hyperscale inference with up to 4x better cost-performance for production serving at scale (for now). For training, NVIDIA is the clear advantage. For highly optimized inference tasks, TPU architecture might remain more efficient than $NVDA's general-purpose GPU. However, I'm expecting next-gen Nvidia GPUs to leapfrog TPUs for inference in many scenarios. (similar to how LLMs leapfrog each other GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5) We're seeing: Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia, and custom hyperscaler chips scale up to reliance on $NVDA. But will the cumulative effect on hyperscalers collectively reducing Nvidia's dominance? The answer: No. Not yet. Dominance is secured at least for the next two years. What happens after is only speculation. Just looking at the numbers: Q3 results confirm the company remains the essential infrastructure provider for AI, with a $500 billion order backlog providing exceptional visibility through 2026. But the market appears to be pricing in this nuanced reality 3 years+ from now: long-term competitive uncertainty with custom hyperscaler chips. Nvidia is completely sold out of capacity, and are likely to leapfrog TPU performance in their next generation chips (higher performance for inference while being general purpose). But the custom silicon threat and valuation concerns at 44x earnings remains a headwind. Regardless, $NVDA seems to be a strong mid term dip-buy now on fears, given the exceptional blowout earnings and backlog for the next 2 years. This is the only thing you need to remember: NVIDIA is a strong buy as long as it remains the industry’s first choice for AI workloads, with TPUs and AMD GPUs filling gaps when demand exceeds NVIDIA’s supply. Nvidia is maxed out on backlog, and AI demand is not slowing down.
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推测可能是ATM增发，具体抛售时间需待下季披露。
@yianisz 也可能是2500万股的自动股权融资(ATM)机制在运行。我们直到下个季度才知道这些股份何时在公开市场售出。
英文原文
@yianisz Could also be the 25 million share ATM running. We don’t know when shares are sold on the open market until next quarter
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认为META和NBIS被低估，建议维持现有持仓。
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho 两者都被低估了，我会保持对 $META 和 $NBIS 的现有持仓不变。
英文原文
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho Both are undervalued I’d just keep positions in $META and $NBIS as is
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指出Arbe双业务模式，建议Robotaxi赛道对标而非跨业务比较。
@Sandeman52 提醒一下，Arbe Robotics ($ARBE) 拥有两种商业模式。在这条推文中，你将 Waymo 与 Arbe 的自动驾驶食品配送板块进行了比较。 更恰当的比较应该是 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）对 Robotaxi。 例如，在 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级别、运营规模（例如 Arbe 与 $UBER 在德克萨斯州的启动）等方面的差异。
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@Sandeman52 Just a heads up, Avride has two business models. In this post you were comparing Waymo with Avride’s autonomous food delivery section. Better comparison would be robotaxi vs robotaxi. Eg. Differences in fsd-level 4, operational scale (eg. Avride launch in Texas with $UBER).
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看好$NBIS长期表现，认为其将摆脱短期波动大幅跑赢。
$NBIS 刚刚经历了一段“修炼期”，此前被它最亲密的朋友 Macrosuke 背叛。 我坚信在未来的一两个月内，凭借新获得的“剧情护甲”，它将强势复苏。 在之前大幅盈利后，我的持仓目前接近成本价。但只要你的仓位没有被强制平仓，长期来看它应该会大幅跑赢大盘。
英文原文
$NBIS is just in its training arc after being betrayed by its closest friend Macrosuke. Strong faith it will recover with newfound plot armor in the upcoming month or two. I’m around cost average now after being up a ton but as long as you didn’t get margined out of your position, long term it should heavy outperform.
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$FLY 为情绪驱动型标的，待中程飞行器推出后市值有望翻倍。
是的，$FLY 是 2026 年的标的，只需持有直到可重复使用中程飞行器推出。此外，它是一只高贝塔值股票，单日波动可达 20%。 如果我没记错，诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司参与了“金穹顶”项目，我认为人们尚未将这一点与 $FLY 联系起来。 其营收尚不足以支撑市值，因此在中程飞行器问世前，它主要是一只情绪驱动型股票。 如果他们继 SpaceX 之后推出第二款可重复使用中程飞行器，我会非常惊讶其市值会低于 100 亿美元（目前为 25 亿美元）。
英文原文
Yeah $FLY is 2026 play, just need to bag hold until reusable medium lift comes out. Also another high beta stock capable of moving 20% in a day. Northrop if I remember correctly was in the golden dome project and I don’t think people are making the association with fly yet. Doesn’t really have the revenue to back up marketcap so it’s largely a sentiment stock until medium lift. I would be extremely surprised if the marktcap was under $10B ($2.5B now) if they made the second reusable medium lift after SpaceX
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提及NBIS Q2财报电话会议中的口头信息难以确证。
@OperationATM $NBIS 2025年第二季度财报电话会议。是的，这只是口头提及，所以很难确切了解 https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
英文原文
@OperationATM $NBIS Q2 2025 earnings call. Yeah it’s only mentioned verbally so it’s a bit hard to know https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
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认为$NBIS因FSD收入预期而被严重低估。
@EarningsMindset 是的，管理层已经预测在2-3年内，来自Avride FSD（完全自动驾驶）的收入将达到数十亿美元。对于$NBIS来说，这被极度低估了。 https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
英文原文
@EarningsMindset Yeah management already projected few billion in revenue from Avride FSD in 2-3 years. Extremely underpriced for $NBIS https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
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NBIS因自动驾驶出租车业务被低估，市值仅210亿。
是的，完全不明白为什么人们不更多地讨论 $NBIS 的自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）业务，毕竟他们拥有第四级自动驾驶（Level 4 FSD）能力，且将在几天内启动。人们购买 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 以获取相关敞口，但 $NBIS 市值仅为 210 亿美元，除了自动驾驶出租车外，还有许多其他公司和核心业务相伴。它可能是市场上最被误解且被低估的成长型公司之一。不幸的是，金融圈（finx）只是一个微小的泡沫，即使这里的人开始理解，其他地方大多数人甚至不知道 Nebius 拥有一家已研发 7 年的自动驾驶出租车公司。
英文原文
Yeah, zero clue why people aren’t talking more about $NBIS for robotaxis when they have fsd level 4 and are launching in a few days. People buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for exposure, but $NBIS is just sitting there at a $21B marketcap with many other companies + core businesses to go alongside robotaxis. Probably one of the most misunderstood and undervalued growth companies in the market. Unfortunately finx is a tiny bubble so even if people start to understand it here, majority of people elsewhere wouldn’t even know Nebius owns a robotaxi company that’s been in development for the past 7 years
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看好NBIS高弹性及长期增长潜力，认为当前市场低估其价值。
是的，$NBIS 是一只极高贝塔（Beta）的股票，能在1周内波动30-40%。特别是到了12月，如果有降息+圣诞行情（如果没有日元套利交易（Yen Carry Trade）的干扰），可能会直线上涨。但即使 $NBIS 涨到160美元我也不会卖出，因为这更多关乎市场提前多久给股票定价。（目前市场戴着眼罩，看向错误的方向）2026年的前瞻数据（Forward Numbers）将非常强劲，2027年更是未知。当你的核心业务可能在两年内达到130亿美元+的年经常性收入（ARR），且所有副业业务同比增长100%+时，未来不久很容易成为一家1000亿美元+的公司。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is an extremely high beta stock capable of moving 30-40% in 1 week timeframes. Especially come December when there’s a rate cut + Santa rally (if there’s no yen carry trade shenanigans), could see a straight line up. But even if $NBIS were $160 I wouldn’t sell it because it’s more of how long ahead the market prices in a stock. (Right now markets are wearing blindfolds and looking the wrong direction) Forward numbers are just blowout for 2026, and who knows for 2027. When your core business is probably doing $13B+ ARR in two years and all your side businesses are scaling 100%+ Y/Y, could easily be a $100B+ company in the near future.
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通过拆解子公司业务与高增长数据，论证 $NBIS 分部估值被低估。
没有大家想的那么久！ 我对过去提到的任何与金融相关的内容都有极其敏锐的记忆。所以我只是即兴拼凑线索，然后做一些额外的研究来核实 $NBIS 的事实。 我记得对于 Avride，人们一直将其与小型食品配送车联系在一起，所以想发布一篇关于自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）方面（这是主要机会）的更新、增长、机会以及他们具体业务的深度分析。 对于 Toloka，人们只是提起这个名字，但并不理解其估值、增长、客户或具体业务。所以想发这篇帖子。 Clickhouse 可能是大家最了解的一个，但人们没有意识到许多 Nebius 子公司的同比增长率都是三位数（通常 30-45% 就算很好了），所以 140% 是非常高的 lol。 当我提到分部加总估值（Sum of Part Valuation）被极度低估时，帮助人们自己得出这个结论，而不是只听我的一面之词，会更有帮助。所以我只是尝试提供我内部思考的论证。
英文原文
Not as long as people think! I have an extremely sharp memory of anything financial related that gets mentioned in the past. So I just kind of piece things together on the fly and then do some additional research to double check facts for $NBIS. I remember for Avride people kept associating it with the small food delivery carts so wanted to post a deeper dive into the robotaxi aspect (which is the main opportunity) updates, growth, opportunity + what they do. For Toloka people just drop the name but don’t understand valuations, growth, customers, or what they do exactly. So wanted to make this post. Clickhouse is probably the most understood one but people don’t realize many of Nebius subsidiaries are growing triple digits Y/Y (usually 30-45% is good) so 140% is extremely high lol. When I talk about sum of part valuation being extremely undervalued, it helps for people to come to that conclusion themselves rather than taking my word for it. So I just try to provide the argument I’m thinking about internally
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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指出市场严重低估 $NBIS 的 L4 自动驾驶业务及其与 Uber 合作的巨大潜力。
我看到的关于 Avride 的帖子主要围绕小型配送机器人！真正的价值来自于 $NBIS 自 2017 年以来一直在开发的自动驾驶 FSD（完全自动驾驶系统）L4 级部门。 人们把 Clickhouse 当作金蛋，但真正的 $300B+ 美元机会在于 Avride 与 $UBER 大规模合作，与 Waymo / $TSLA 竞争。 我想指出 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力，通过深入挖掘其分部加总价值，市场对此严重、严重低估。 这不仅仅是“估值为 $X”然后打个 40% 的折扣，它还将以极其荒谬的高速增长，就像其核心业务一样。
英文原文
I've seen posts about Avride but they're mainly around the small delivery robots! The real value comes from the self-driving FSD level 4 division that $NBIS has been developing since 2017. People namedrop Clickhouse a the golden egg, but the $300B+ dollar opportunity is with Avride + $UBER at scale competing vs Waymo / $TSLA. Wanted to point out the asymmetrical upside with $NBIS by doing a deeper dive about sum of parts that the market severely, severely undervalues. It's not just "valued at $X" and slash a 40% discount on it, it's also about to grow at extremely absurd rates like their core business.
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NBIS旗下Avride具L4自动驾驶能力，有望成高增长黑马。
精彩的帖子。如果在日本庆祝的话，感恩节快乐！ 核心论点是，Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）是一个数万亿美元规模的巨大市场，人们正在通过投资 $TSLA 和 $GOOGL 来寻求该领域的敞口。 然而，在特斯拉、亚马逊、谷歌、现代这五大主要玩家中，鲜为人知的另一家是 $NBIS 旗下的 Avride，它拥有 Level 4（L4）级完全自动驾驶技术。经过7年的开发和研发投资，该公司正与 $UBER 一起迈向商业化，并与 Waymo 和 Tesla 展开竞争。 因此，如果 Nebius 在核心的数据中心业务之外，还拥有一家并行且超高速增长的无名子公司，它将成为市场上增长最快的公司之一。
英文原文
素晴らしい投稿ですね。そして、日本で祝っているなら、ハッピーサンクスギビング！ 主張の核心は、ロボタクシーは数兆ドル規模の巨大市場であり、その分野へのエクスポージャーを求めて人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です。 しかし、テスラ、アマゾン、グーグル、ヒュンダイの5つの主要プレーヤーのうち、多くの人が知らないもう1社、 $NBIS 傘下の Avride はレベル4の完全自動運転を持っています。そしてこの企業は、7年にわたる開発と研究開発投資を経て $UBER と共に商用化へ向けて動き出し、Waymo や Tesla と競争しようとしています。 このように、コアであるデータセンタービジネスと並行して超高速で成長する無名の子会社を抱えている場合、Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです。
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看好$NBIS极高增速及低市值潜力，类比Waymo扩张前景。
我见过$HOOD，也见过$META在IPO时的表现。除了$NVDA可能之外，我从未见过任何单一公司能像$NBIS这样以如此惊人的速度扩张。 在年经常性收入(ARR)已达10亿美元以上且同比增长300%+的基础上，还能实现700%+的同比增长，这种增长速度简直高得令人难以置信。 这仅仅是核心业务的表现。 在我上面的帖子中，Avride正处于像Waymo与$UBER合作那样大规模扩张的边缘。如果他们在德克萨斯州的启动顺利，我们可能会在地图上的各个地方看到它的出现。 很难给出目标价。我通常不会为单只股票唱多，但我从未见过一只具有如此荒谬高潜力的股票，其市值却如此之低。
英文原文
I've seen $HOOD, I've seen $META at IPO. Aside from maybe $NVDA, I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS. Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth. That's just the core business alone. In my post above, Avride is at the precipice of scaling like Waymo with $UBER. If their Texas launch goes well, we might just see this pop up everywhere around the map. Hard to give a price target. I normally don't bullpost a single stock but I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.
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计划通过分部估值分析 Clickhouse 潜力，以阐释 Nebius 价值。
Clickhouse 确实非常强大(OP)，但我尚未对其进行单独分析，因为 $NBIS 仅持有 28% 的股份。不过，我完全能看到 Clickhouse 未来成为一家市值 500 亿美元的公司，我可能会写一篇后续帖子，涵盖所有分部估值(Sum-of-Parts)，以帮助人们理解 Nebius 的价值主张。
英文原文
clickhouse is pretty OP, but haven't made an individual analysis on that yet since $NBIS only owns 28%. But i could definitely see clickhouse becoming a $50B company one day, i'll probably made a follow up post and cover all sum-of-parts to help people understand nebius value proposition
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看好NBIS两年期200美元看涨期权
@Perugius__ 哦，是的，对于 $NBIS 来说，将几个月到期的期权换成两年后到期的期权，这种风险管理没问题。 我强烈认为 2027 年 12 月到期的 $200 看涨期权会行权！
英文原文
@Perugius__ Oh yeah that's fine risk management for $NBIS swapping out few month expiry to 2 years out. Strongly believe Dec 2027 $200 calls will hit!
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NBIS旗下自动驾驶子公司Avride被严重低估，具备投资潜力。
是的，$NBIS 是一个迷人的分部加总(Sum-of-Parts)估值脱钩案例，其隐藏资产——高增长的自动驾驶Robotaxi子公司 Avride，在母公司市值中被严重低估。这在公众中鲜为人知。但所有人都渴望通过 Waymo 或 $TSLA 获得 Robotaxi 领域的敞口。这仅仅是 Nebius 进行的众多副线任务之一，我本打算写一系列文章介绍其他项目，但鉴于我是自动驾驶汽车的粉丝，我个人最喜欢 Avride。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is a fascinating sum-of-parts disconnect example where a hidden asset yet high growth self-driving robotaxi subsidiary Avride, is severely undervalued within the parent company's MC. It's very little known to the public. But everyone is dying to get exposure to robotaxi players looking at Waymo or $TSLA. This is just one of the side quests Nebius is doing, I was going to do a series on the others, but I personally liked Avride the most given how I'm a fan of self-driving cars.
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Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。 更疯狂的是这一点。 其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。 是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。 作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。 人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。 因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。 但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争： 那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是 该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。 支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。 你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。 我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor
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博主预告将发布关于NBIS的深入分析帖。
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK 是的，我会再发一篇帖子解释今天关于 $NBIS 的原因。
英文原文
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK Yes, I’ll make another post explaining why today on $NBIS
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对比特斯拉FSD与Waymo等技术等级，认为谷歌目前领先。
哈哈，$TSLA 目前感觉像是营销上的“万能灵药(snake oil)”。Waymo ($GOOGL) - L4级自动驾驶；Cruise ($GM) - L4级；Aurora - L4级；Tesla FSD - L2级。$TSLA 目前仍是L2级，仍需人类远程监控每次驾驶，其FSD营销带有“必须时刻手握方向盘”的免责声明，纯属营销噱头。不过，如果仅靠摄像头就能实现，正如你所说，其规模化潜力更大。鉴于埃隆能造出可重复使用火箭，我并不怀疑他的能力。除此之外，$GOOGL 目前在各方面都碾压其他对手。我认为更好的问题是：Aurora + Uber 能否与 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 竞争，而非单独看某家公司。
英文原文
lol $TSLA feels like marketing snake oil currently. Waymo ( $GOOGL ) -Level 4 Cruise ( $GM ) - Level 4 Avride - Level 4 Tesla FSD - Level 2 $TSLA still has humans remotely monitoring every drive since it's level 2 right now and it's just snake oil marketing FSD (with disclaimers that you must be at the wheel lol at all times). If they get it right with just cameras, it has higher scale potential as you mentioned. And I don't really doubt Elon if he can make massive reusable rockets. That aside, $GOOGL is dominating every one of them right now. Think the better question to be asking is if avride + Uber can compete vs $TSLA or $GOOGL, rather than the standalone company.
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TPU/AMD因NVDA产能受限受追捧，若NVDA产能过剩才需担忧竞争逆风。
问得极好，我关于谷歌TPU（张量处理单元）有一个非常详尽且微妙的论点。 总结：真正需要担心的是，如果TPU和AMD在长期表现上优于$NVDA，导致人们**偏好**其他GPU并转而购买它们。而不是因为$NVDA的GPU卖光了，被迫去买替代品。 但这只是简版。目前的情况就像$AMD： 它是$NVDA潜在的竞争替代品，短期内对基本面影响不大。 这对$NVDA专属云（如$CRWV）和$NVDA自身（例如$META可能会购买TPU）构成长期逆风。但其中的微妙之处在于，$NVDA受限于GPU产能，否则$META可能根本不会去买任何TPU。 短期/中期对盈利影响不大。中期对$TSM、像$CIFR这样的 Colo（数据中心）提供商、以及GPU无关的云提供商构成顺风。 $NVDA刚经历了一个爆发性的季度，Q4预测也极其惊人。直接看那些营收预测就好。 所以我说的微妙之处在于：人们买$AMD和TPU是因为产能受限。$NVDA生产的任何东西都能售罄。 如果$NVDA生产的任何东西都卖不完，那时你才需要担心逆风和$NVDA的故事。
英文原文
Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs. SUMMARY: The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives. But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals. This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs. Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers. $NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce. If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.
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看好$NBIS因Robotaxi子公司潜力被低估，预期市值可达400B。
$NBIS 的核心业务令人惊叹。但更疯狂的是，其子公司在一年内的潜在价值可能超过主营业务。目前市场上没有公开的自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)公司。获取相关敞口的唯一途径是通过 $TSLA 的 Robotaxi 业务和 $GOOGL 的 Waymo。$NBIS 持有 AVride 83% 的股权，估值约 60 亿美元，并与 $UBER（也是投资者）合作以竞争 Waymo。马斯克一直宣传 Robotaxi 是一个万亿美元的市场。如果这家公司不久后市值达到 400 亿美元，我也不会感到惊讶。话虽如此，$NBIS 目前 21 美元的估值简直低得可笑。
英文原文
$NBIS core business is insane. But what's even more insane is that potential for their subsidiaries to be worth more than their main business in a year lol. There's no public robotaxi companies right now. The only way to get exposure is $TSLA for their robotaxis and $GOOGL for Waymo. And $NBIS has AVride ~$6B valuation 83% ownership, which they partnered with $UBER (also an investor) to compete vs Waymo.Elon's been shilling Robotaxi's as a trillion dollar market. Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future. That being said, $NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now.
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机构增持NBIS至近50%，预示其将成下一超大规模云服务商并即将拉升。
我确信机构已经知道 $NBIS 正在蓄势成为下一个超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)。 从13F文件来看，我们的机构持股比例从上季度的38%上升到了本季度的44%。 现在根据彭博终端(Bloomberg terminal)数据，$NBIS 的机构持股比例已达到48.8%-50.42%（鉴于昨日纳入MSCI指数+未来一两周更多资金流入，实际比例可能更高）。 正如我之前在 $HOOD 的案例中所说，对于这类优质公司，机构往往会在迎来大幅拉升前，先积累到55-75%这一“甜蜜点”的持股比例。 机构正在通过暗池(dark pools)买入散户的投降筹码。
英文原文
Pretty sure institutions know $NBIS is gearing up to become the next hyperscaler. We went from 38% institutional ownership last quarter to 44% this quarter from 13F filings. Now from Bloomberg terminal data, we're now at 48.8%-50.42% institutional ownership of $NBIS (with likely more after MSCI inclusion yesterday + more inflows the next week or two). As I said before with good companies like $HOOD, institutions tend to acquire that 55-75% sweet spot before having massive ramps up. Institutions are buying retail capitulation, but just through dark pools.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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日元套利交易平仓将推动资金回流，建议做多日经指数。
日本加息看似对日经平均指数不利，但由于美联储正在降息，这将导致2024年重新积累的日元套利交易(Carry Trade)崩溃。因此，在资金回流日本、推动带对冲买入的平仓(Unwind)阶段，我认为做多日经指数是明智的仓位配置。
英文原文
日本の利上げは日経平均にとって一見マイナスに思えますが、米国のFRBが利下げに動いていることもあり、2024年に再び積み上がった円キャリートレードが崩壊する要因になります。 そのため、資金が日本へ還流し、ヘッジを伴った買いが促されるアンワインド局面では、日経をロングするのは賢いポジショニングだと私も考えます。
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对比NBIS的爆发式增长与CIFR的稳健长期价值。
从我在AI增长板块的观察来看，是的，$NBIS 极其罕见，因为它前身是 Yandex。作为背景，这基本上相当于俄罗斯的百度/中国或谷歌/美国，他们将 Avride 等子公司剥离至 Nebius。至于 $CRWV 等其他公司，它们对 Monolith AI 等收购案更多是为了补充现有核心业务，而非像 $NBIS 那样实现三位数的独立同比增长。而收购 Weights and Bias 花费了17亿美元（据我了解其增长并不快）。至于其他数据中心/矿企，不幸的是比特币增长也不快，但长期来看防御性很强。因此，例如 $CIFR 通过其资产负债表的增长速度会慢得多。但从长期来看，作为股东持有它非常稳健，符合其下行风险较低的数据中心(colocation)模式和较慢的收入爬坡模型。如果你想一年内从0做到2000亿，$NBIS 是做法；如果你想用5年做到，$CIFR 是选择。
英文原文
From what I've seen in the AI growth sector, Yes, $NBIS is incredibly, incredibly rare since it was Yandex before. For context, that's basically Baidu/China | Google/US equivalent but for Russia and they spun off subsidiaries like Avride into Nebius. For stuff like $CRWV and other companies, their acquisitions like Monolith AI were more to compliment their existing core business rather than growing independently at triple digits Y/Y. Then $1.7B for Weights and Bias (that is not growing too fast from what I'm floated numbers) As for the other DC/miner companies, unfortunately Bitcoin isn't growing too fast either, but it's very defensible long term. So growth rate of $CIFR via their balance sheets for example will be a lot slower. But longer term it's really solid to have as a shareholder and goes in line with their low downside risk colo model, slower slower revenue ramp model. If you want to go from 0 to 200B in a year, $NBIS is how you do it. If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at.
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NBIS资金充裕，建议保留高增长子公司并寻求并购以超越当前市值。
$NBIS 应该拥有足够的资金来支持建设，包括 48 亿美元现金储备加上 25 亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资，以及从收入合同中获得的任何自由现金流(FCF)都将重新投入建设。 我认为 Nebius 管理层指的是如果出现极端的信贷紧缩，他们将出售投资组合中的公司，这在最后关头是合理的。 但他们处于健康的状态。如果我是他们，我会让它们继续增长，并寻找更多的并购(M&A)，就像 FTX 在加密领域所做的那样，或者 Meta 早期在核心运营业务之外对社交网络的投资，以建立更稳固的防御。 如果 Avride 成为一家 250 亿美元的企业，或者 Clickhouse 成为一家 800 亿美元的企业（鉴于它们的增长轨迹，这两种情况都非常可能），这些单独的业务价值将超过当前的市值。
英文原文
$NBIS should have enough to fund buildout through $4.8B cash stack plus $2.5B ATM + any fcf they get from revenue contracts gets put back into buildout. I think Nebius management were referring to if there was extreme credit tightening, they would sell off portfolio companies, which would make sense in a last ditch scenario. But they're in a healthy spot. If I were them I would let them all keep growing, and look for more M&As like what FTX did in the crypto sector, Meta early stage with social media networks alongside their core operational business for more defensibly. In the event Avride becomes a $25B business or Clickhouse becomes a $80B business (which are both extremely plausible scenarios given their growth trajectories), those individual stacks would be worth more than the current market cap.
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质疑某两家公司仅为NBIS用户而非被投企业
@Dream5728363541 那两家公司难道只是 $NBIS 的用户，而不是其投资组合中的被投企业吗？
英文原文
@Dream5728363541 Aren’t those two just users of $NBIS, not portfolio company investments?
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认为市场低估了$NBIS及其子公司Avride的超大规模扩张潜力。
我觉得市场也错过了 $NBIS 的故事。Jim Cramer 就是一个典型的例子。 我认为我们只是处于早期阶段，但最高的回报往往来自于此。尤其是当市场折价子公司，且未将其随核心业务超大规模扩张(Hyperscaling)的因素计入定价时。 存在一种遥远的可能性，即其中一家子公司（Avride）的规模会超过主营业务。
英文原文
I sort of think the market missed the $NBIS story too. Jim Cramer for one is the perfect example. Think we're just early but that's where the highest returns come from. Especially when the market discounts subsidiaries and doesn't price in that they're hyperscaling along the core business. There's a distant possibility where one of them (Avride), becomes larger than the main business.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.