个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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首次目睹LASR实战应用，确认其具备实战验证能力。
@Vcondry84 第一次亲眼看到 $LASR 实战应用，简直太疯狂了。我关注它有一段时间了，但直到现在才看到真正的实战验证。https://t.co/KMnDV9dlD5
英文原文
@Vcondry84 It's absolutely wild to see $LASR in action for the first time. I was aware of it for awhile but didn't really see any combat validation until now. https://t.co/KMnDV9dlD5
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因铁束实战验证，作者在30亿市值时建仓纯定向能武器股LASR。
$LASR 来自“铁束”系统的定向能武器。这很可能是美以 vs 伊朗冲突中最大的受益者和验证者。真主党向以色列发射火箭弹。-> $LASR (Nlight) 的激光引擎在 Rafael 的“铁束”系统中将其击落。亲眼目睹其实战效果简直令人疯狂。鉴于刚刚得到的验证，预计大量国防基金近期将涌入定向能武器领域。特别是通过 HELSI 计划拦截高超音速导弹。虽然 $DRS 或 $RTX 等大型玩家也有相关敞口，但只有 $LASR 是市值 31 亿美元的纯定向能武器股。它恰好也是“铁束”系统的已知关键供应商。我最终在 $LASR 市值 30 亿美元时建立了头寸。
英文原文
$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam. Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict. Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel. -> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down. It's absolutely wild to see it in action. Lot of defense funds will now probably be pouring into Energy Directed Weapons in the near future given validation just now. Especially to zap down hypersonic missiles with the HELSI initiative. There's a few large player exposure like $DRS or $RTX but there's only one $3.1B MC pure-play energy directed weapons stock. Which also happens to be a known critical supplier for the Iron Beam. Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC.
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建议在AEHR和AAOI之间采取多元化配置策略。
@B38B37 如果你在 $AEHR 和 $AAOI 之间做选择，我是多元化(Diversification)的拥趸。多多益善。
英文原文
@B38B37 I’m a fan of diversification if you’re choosing between $AEHR and $AAOI. The more the merrier.
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分享AXTI等个股早期布局逻辑及CPO前瞻。
$AXTI 和 $AAOI 可能还非常早期。$LITE 的定价已略有反映。$COHR 还有很长的路要走。 $IQE 处于非常早期的阶段，但由于重组带来的固有风险，我不建议其他人参与。我只是分享我建仓的逻辑，并沿途庆祝进展。 至于 2028 年的共封装光学(CPO)，明年有一套不同的标的供提前布局。
英文原文
Probably very early to $AXTI and $AAOI. $LITE slightly more priced in. $COHR has some way to go. $IQE is very early but I wouldn’t recommend it to people since it’s inherently risky due to restructuring. I’m just sharing why I entered the trade and celebrating along the way. Then for cpo in 2028 there’s a different set of picks for next year to frontrun.
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光子学板块个股无视宏观风险持续大涨
看来 $IQE 也不关心伊朗战争？ 我核心光子学(Photonics)板块的选股 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR 和 $AAOI 最近每天都呈垂直上涨态势，完全无视任何宏观因素。https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
英文原文
Apparently $IQE does not concern itself with the War in Iran either? My core photonics segment picks from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI have been just vertical green line up every day recently, despite any macro. https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
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预测某股将垂直整合，视AAOI为一年期交易。
@Blazedsin 是也不是。我猜测它最终可能会像 $SMCI 或 $SNDK 那样走向垂直整合，大部分营收增长将持续到 2027 年底。然后共封装光学(CPO) 就会推出。$AAOI 对我来说是一笔为期一年的交易。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yes and no. My guess is that it’s probably going to end up vertical like $SMCI or $SNDK with majority of revenue ramp coming in until late 2027. Then cpo comes out. $AAOI is a 1 year trade for me
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NAND价格暴涨，SanDisk要求预付锁定供应。
对于 $SNDK 来说，这可能只是宏观因素，尤其是如果要求预付未来三年的款项的话 lol “自2025年下半年以来，NAND 合约价格已多轮翻倍，据报道过去六个月累计涨幅高达500%。此前，美国 NAND 制造商 SanDisk 要求下游客户全额预付以锁定未来一到三年的供应。”
英文原文
Might just be macro for $SNDK especially if there’s prepayment for three years ahead lol “Since the second half of 2025, NAND contract prices have doubled in multiple rounds, with cumulative increases reportedly reaching as high as 500% over the past six months. Earlier, U.S.-based NAND manufacturer SanDisk required downstream customers to prepay in full to secure supply for the next one to three years”
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AAOI营收预测惊人，高增长低估值，成光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 并不关心伊朗的战争局势。 这只光子学股票拥有令人惊讶的约 900% 营收增长爆发式预测： 到 2027 年中，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 将达到 45.3 亿美元，毛利率约为 40%。 再加上两位数方向性的串行接口 (SI) 供应短缺。 可能并不需要（担心这些宏观或供应链问题）。
英文原文
$AAOI does not concern itself with a war in Iran. The photonics stock with surprise ~900% revenue growth blowout projections to: $4.53B ARR by mid-2027, off ~40% margins. Coupled with double digit directional SI stuck. Might not need to be. https://t.co/qKReNvBMYh
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CPO瓶颈股估值低但受拖累，建议暂持或寻找其他机会。
智能手机及其他业务带来的传统拖累。 随后是巨大的资本支出周期，目前正为2027-2028年晚期的产能爬坡做准备。 所以可能更好的策略是将其作为记账头寸持有，明年年初再回来处理。除非市场开始提前抢跑。 14亿欧元的市值对于共封装光学(CPO)的功能性垄断瓶颈来说真的很便宜。但作为一名交易者，未来一年可能在其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
Legacy drag from smartphones and other businesses. Then massive capex cycle now to prepare for late 2027-2028 ramp. So might just be better off bookmaking it and coming back early next year. Unless markets start frontrunning it early. 1.4B euro MC is really cheap for functional monopoly bottleneck for cpo. But as a trader, probably better opportunities elsewhere for the next year
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Macronix 是 NOR Flash 最纯标的，需更陡峭涨幅才能重现 SNDK 走势。
我之前讨论过的 Macronix，主要涉及 NOR Flash（Nor 闪存）。由于它占据 30-35% 的市场份额，且市值（MC）仅为 67 亿美元，远低于其他竞争对手的 150 亿美元以上，因此它是该板块中最纯粹的标的。目前的涨幅相当温和，若要重现 $SNDK 的走势，其涨幅需要陡峭得多。
英文原文
Macronix I've talked about earlier on for NOR Flash. It's probably the most pure play out of the bunch since it's 30-35% of the market with a smaller MC of $6.7B compared to the others at $15B+ The hikes have been pretty modest so far, for it to pull a $SNDK, it will need to be a lot steeper.
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建议等待 $XLU 回调且 IV 降至 14-16% 时入场。
@btc_overflow 我会等待回调（如果有的话）再买入 $XLU，并在行权价的隐含波动率(IV)降至 14-16% 左右时入场。 如果它继续上涨，你也不会损失什么，只是错过了众多机会中的一个。
英文原文
@btc_overflow I’d wait for a correction (if there is one) for $XLU and for IV on a strike to be around 14-16% to enter. If it keeps going up you don’t lose anything, just miss out on an opportunity among others.
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看好NBIS多业务高增长及分部价值，预期其现金流转正后估值重估。
$NBIS 是我在这批新云厂商中真正最看好的。情况很微妙，但他们本质上是由 5 家不同业务组成的公司，且均实现三位数的同比增长。我最看好其与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶出租车部门，以及 Clickhouse（他们持有约 1/4 股份），这两块未来估值很可能远超 150 亿美元。此外，其数据中心业务预计将在 2027 年 2 月报告前上线，带来约 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR)。我认为市场尚未充分反映其分部加总价值，但我预计在其低调建设阶段结束、资本支出 (Capex) 开始转化为自由现金流 (FCF) 后，Nebius 的估值将得到重估。
英文原文
$NBIS is my actually favorite Neocloud out of the bunch. It’s really nuanced but they actually are basically 5 different companies all scaling triple digits y/y. Biggest fan of their robotaxi division working with $UBER and Clickhouse would likely command higher valuations in the future than $15B (they own ~1/4th). This is on top of their DC business expected to come online and bring ~$7-9B ARR by Feb 2027 report. Don’t think sum of parts is priced in properly but I’d expect Nebius to be rerated after their silent buildout phase ends and they start turning capex to fcf
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不看好IREN因稀释风险，更信任NBIS管理层，静待时间验证。
我不看好做多 $IREN，除非他们停止 GPU 业务并转向纯数据中心托管(Colo)业务。现在的投资者将面临为了变现其 3GW 产能而进行的无休止稀释。话虽如此，它确实具有更高的潜在回报，但我个人更信任 $NBIS 的管理层。过去我在 $NBIS 与 $IREN 之间有过很多辩论，时间会证明谁是对的。
英文原文
Not a fan of $IREN as a long unless they stop doing GPU offerings and pivot to do pure colo. investors now will be met with endless dilution to monetize their 3GW capacity. That being said it does carry higher potential returns but I personally trust in $NBIS management more. I’ve had a lot of debates in the past between $NBIS vs $IREN but time will tell whose right
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CRWV大跌验证看空逻辑，警示新云债务风险差异。
这条推文经得起时间考验，$CRWV 过去一个月下跌约 28%。 我觉得最好的空头其实是多头投资者或波段交易者。 如果你看到 Coreweave 或 $CRCL 在 200 美元时的危险信号，与其回避，不如反向操作。 话虽如此，$NBIS 等其他股票正随着板块被算法性打压。 我一次又一次地注意到，并非所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)都是一样的。 - 一家新云服务商可能有数十亿美元的年度债务利息，损害自由现金流(FCF) - 另一家则可能没有……
英文原文
This aged well, $CRWV down ~28% in the past month. I feel like the best bears would actually be long investors or swing traders. If you see red flags, with Coreweave or $CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it. That being said, $NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector I’ve noticed this again and again, not all Neoclouds are built the same. - One Neocloud might have billions in yearly debt interest hurting FCF - The other Neocloud might not…
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建议等待更好入场点，长期看好AI推理与降息驱动的上涨。
@Edu4rdo26 如果你打算买入，建议等待更好的入场时机。1个月10.42%的回报率已经超过了其长期正常回报水平。但从长期来看，我预计其方向将向上，并有望迎来由AI推理(AI Inference)需求爆发和降息驱动的“一生一次”级别的行情。
英文原文
@Edu4rdo26 If you do, probably wait for a better entry. 10.42% 1M return is already more than what it would normally return across a long time. But long term I expect it to be directionally up with a once-a-lifetime type run from AI inference usage and rate cuts
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分析$XLU期权因低波动率特性，小幅波动即可带来高收益。
回复 @walteryhooper：$XLU 的 IV（隐含波动率）自2000年以来仅移动了82%（未计入股息），因此只要价格波动3%并伴随轻微的 Vega（波动率风险）扩张，收益就能轻松翻倍。 https://t.co/eCIEyAVd0F
英文原文
@walteryhooper IV for $XLU was 14% since the ETF has only moved 82% since year 2000 (not account for dividends). So a 3% movement with slight vega expansion is easily a double. https://t.co/eCIEyAVd0F
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聚焦$GRID在美国电网现代化及降息中的机会，并澄清时间范围。
@cafeaulaitfr $GRID 是全球性的，我专注于美国电力/电网现代化与降息。此外，日期仅涵盖至今年9月，而非2028年。
英文原文
@cafeaulaitfr $GRID is global, I’m focusing on US power/grid modernization coupled with rate cuts. Also the dates only go out to September this year instead of 2028
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看好$XLU，认为电网升级是AI时代美国工业产能的关键。
埃隆在敲响警钟，指出电力/电网对美国在AI领域的统治地位至关重要时，完全正确。 我此前对$XLU（电网/电力公用事业ETF）发出的“千载难逢”行情预测正在实时兑现。 新的看涨期权（Calls）仅在一周内就已上涨约100%+。 电力发电和电网是工业产能的衡量标准，美国有充分的动力对其进行现代化改造和扩张。
英文原文
Elon is completely right when he sounds the alarm that power/grid is vital for US dominance in AI. My call for the once in a lifetime run for $XLU (grid/power utilities ETF) is playing out real time. New calls are already up ~100%+ in the week alone. Power generation and the grid is a measurement of industrial capacity and the US has every motivation to modernize and expand it.
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借地缘战例证AI非泡沫，视其为摆脱阶层的关键机遇。
我不明白为什么有人会觉得 AI 是泡沫？ 美国政府凭借 $PLTR 和 Anthropic Claude 黑盒 AI 大语言模型(LLM)，在一天之内就分别摧毁了： - 委内瑞拉 - 伊朗 的领导力。 更妙的是，美国政府看起来完全依赖 Anthropic。 这似乎是一生中难得的机会，可以通过从 AI 基础设施建设和地缘政治军备竞赛中获利，从而摆脱永久的底层阶级。
英文原文
Not sure how anyone can think Ai is bubble? The US government managed to wipe out: - Venezulea - Iran leadership in a single day each because of $PLTR and Anthropic Claude black box AI LLMs. Better yet, the US government looks completely reliant on Anthropic. This seems like a once in a lifetime chance to escape the permanent underclass by profiting off the AI buildout and geopolitical arms race.
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MRVL 依赖 MSFT Maia 放量，看好 2027 长线机会。
@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL 高度依赖 $MSFT Maia 的放量进程，我可能会将后者作为一个重要的风向标。但我认为它在 2027 年将是极佳的长线标的，关键在于把握合适的入场时机。
英文原文
@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL is heavily dependent on $MSFT maia ramp and i'd probably use the latter as a large indicator. But I see it being an amazing long for 2027, just need to time it properly.
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分享$AAOI买入逻辑，看好执行落地后的巨大回报及有限下行风险。
我的首次买入价在20多美元高位到30多美元低位，所以差不多！我只记得超大规模云服务商的认证过程，并预期他们会像$ALAB那样发力。 对于$AAOI来说，关键在于执行落地，但如果他们成功了，投资回报率(ROI)将是巨大的。 即使他们错过预期40%，我认为从50亿美元市值这里下行空间也不大，所以我准备参与接下来一年的行情。
英文原文
My first buy was in the high 20s, low 30's so around the same! I just remember hyperscaler qualifcation and expected them to pull an $ALAB. Yeah name of the game is execution with $AAOI, but if they hit, the ROI is just enormous. I don't really see too much downside from $5B here even if they miss projections by 40%, so I'm in for the ride for the next year.
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看好$AAOI十倍增长潜力，视其为光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 对我来说感觉是必须配置的共封装光学(CPO)敞口。 他们的财报简直像黑魔法一样神奇。 $LITE（市值500亿美元）：2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元 $AAOI（市值56亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 他们的增长预测在2026年实际上已经超越了 $LITE。 我没开玩笑。 $AAOI 的毛利率约为40%，$LITE 凭借光电路交换(OCS)垄断地位可能达到45%。 “长期毛利率目标约为40%。” 别误会，$LITE 是一只极佳的长线股，因为其在 $GOOGL TPU 和 Google 资本支出中占据8-12%的物料清单(BOM)份额... 但 $AAOI 的营收顶层增长接近去年营收的10倍，这简直不可思议。 如果你用草稿纸数学模型计算： “管理层预测，到2027年第二季度，每月光收发器营收潜力达3.78亿美元” ~ 43亿美元目标，40%毛利率（自产），17.2亿美元毛利润，也许~6亿美元资本支出/运营支出： 净利润 ~8.96亿美元。 远期市盈率（基于2027年净利润）：~6.4倍远期市盈率，对应约900%的同比增长。 而且如果你看光子学产能爬坡，预计向2030年呈指数级增长。 从他们的管理层电话会议来看，超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）很可能买断了所有可用的光收发器产能。 这让我想起早期的 $ALAB 或 $CRDO，所有超大规模云服务商都是他们的客户。 如果你考虑到像 $SNDK 的NAND闪存那样的价格涨幅： +15% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：14.1亿美元净利润 - （4.1倍远期市盈率） +30% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：19.2亿美元净利润 - （3.0倍远期市盈率） 这就是为什么我在 $AAOI 财报后如此兴奋。 甚至还没包括 $AAOI “美国制造”的光收发器供应链，这将使他们获得相对于 $FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、易普联(Eptolink)等海外厂商的溢价。 有点像 $INTC 对 $TSM 或 $MU 对 SK海力士的溢价。 如果他们的预测成真，且价格涨幅使光子学板块在800%+增长下达到3倍市盈率，回报率将是天文数字。 再次强调，这些是管理层预测，执行力才是关键。 无论如何，我将 $AAOI 作为我最大的光子学持仓之一，因为这看起来像黑魔法，也是下一个 $SNDK 的开端。 如果他们能实现预测，非零概率是我们在一年半后看到其达到 $LITE 500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me. Their earnings report is genuinely black magic. $LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026. Not even kidding. Gross margins are ~40% for $AAOI, maybe 45% for $LITE with OCS monopoly. "-term objective of gross margins to around 40%," Don't get me wrong, $LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend... But $AAOI top line growth for revenue is close to 10X revenue growth from last year's revenue, which is just insane. And if you go off napkin math modeling: "By Q2 2027, management forecasts monthly transceiver revenue potential of $378 million" ~ $4.30B target, 40% margin (in-house), $1.72B gross profit, maybe ~$600m capex/opex: Net income ~$896M. Forward P/E (on 2027 NI): ~6.4x forward p/e off ~900%-ish Y/Y growth. And if you look at photonics ramp, it's expected to increase exponentially toward 2030. From their management call hyperscalers likely ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN ) are buying out all available capacity for transceivers. Reminds me of a early $ALAB or $CRDO where all the hyperscalers are their customers. And if you get to likely price hikes like NAND for $SNDK: +15% ASP Price Hike: $1.41B net income - (4.1x forward p/e) +30% ASP Price Hike: $1.92B net income - (3.0x forward p/e) This is why I got so excited about $AAOI post-earnings. Not even including $AAOI "Made in America" transceiver supply chains that would give them a premium where $FN, Innolight, Eptolink, and others do theirs abroad. Kinda like $INTC to $TSM or $MU to SK Hynix premiums. The ROI for this is just astronomical if they hit their projections and price hikes give them a 3 p/e rate off 800%+ growth in photonics segments. Again, these are management projections, execution is the biggest the name of the game. Regardless, I'm making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions because this looks like black magic and the beginning of the next $SNDK. There's a nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B $LITE valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute on their projections.
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分析IQE债务风险与重组潜力，看好AAOI非对称收益并加仓。
$IQE 因债务问题本质上具有危险性。我只是说，作为 $LITE 的已知供应商以及超大规模云服务商光子学供应链的主要贡献者，他们坐拥产能金矿。如果他们能通过出售台湾业务成功进行债务重组，我不惊讶其估值重估（re-rating）达到 1000%。这取决于你的风险偏好。$AAOI 在当前水平具有纯粹的非对称上行空间，我是重度买家。
英文原文
$IQE is inherently dangerous because of debt. I'm just saying they're sitting on a gold mine of capacity as a known $LITE supplier and large contributor to the hyperscaler photonics supply chain. If they do manage to restructure by selling off their Taiwan business wouldn't be surprised if it got re-rated like 1000%. Depends on your risk appetite. $AAOI is pure asymmetrical upside at these levels, and I'm a heavy buyer.
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能源与国防股涨幅已大，机构或借消息出货，暂不追高。
石油/能源板块上涨25%极为罕见。（1年回报率约25%）因此它在短短两个月内就已实现了全部收益。大型国防股也是如此，因此大多数机构已大幅调整仓位。因此，过去一个月大多数因素已基本被定价，随着散户反应性买入，机构可能会借消息出货。但我确信它们可能还会再涨一点。否则，我不太确定现在是否应该追高。需要先观察打击行动的影响及后续反应。
英文原文
Oil/energy sector going up 25% is extremely rare. (1Y return ~25%) so it already made up the entire return in just two months. Same with large defense stocks, so most institutions have largely repositioned. So most things have already largely been priced in over the last month and institutions might be selling into the news as people reactively buy. But I’m sure they might go up a tad further. Otherwise so I’m not too sure about chasing now. Will need to see impact and response of the strikes first
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以伊冲突引发市场恐慌，短期避险，若美介入则利好军工石油。
希望你们都用开心果(Pistachios)做了对冲。 以色列现在正在空袭伊朗。 直接受益者： 石油(能源) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, 国防 - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC 避险资产 - 黄金, 白银 航运 - $FRO, $STNG 开心果 这可能只是互相试探(trading blows)的情况： -> 以色列发射一些导弹 -> 伊朗回击一些 -> 被美国击落，以便他们声称进行了报复 然后一切恢复正常。 我的观点是，市场会在周末和隔夜交易时恐慌，但在意识到战争对美国股市有利(bullish)后很快恢复。 但如果美国随后跟进并入侵，那么军事/石油交易逻辑就会回归。
英文原文
Hope you all hedged with Pistachios. Israel is now airstriking Iran. Immediate Beneficiaries: Oil (Energy) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, Defense - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC Save Haven Assets - Gold, Silver Shipping - $FRO, $STNG Pistachios This might just be a case of trading blows -> Israel fires some shows -> Iran fires some back -> they get shot down by the US so they can claim they retaliated Then all is well. My opinion is markets freak out for the weekend and overnight but recover shortly after they realize war is bullish for America. But if US follows-up and invades, then the Military/Oil trade is back.
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看好AAOI财报及美国优先属性，将其设为核心持仓。
$AAOI 的财报真的非常惊人！或者说，这甚至还是保守的说法！营收预计增长超过 900%，如果实现，市盈率将降至个位数。而且，市场尚未计入其向 2028 年迈进的进一步增长（产能爬坡）。因此，我将该股作为我的核心（主力）持仓！当然，也存在业务执行风险和股权稀释风险，但我认为其上行潜力值得追求。特别是其“美国优先”的企业属性，这一点非常重要。
英文原文
$AAOI の決算は本当に凄かった！というか、それすら控えめな表現だよ！ 売上高は900%以上の増加予測で、もし達成できればPERは1桁台になる。しかも、2028年に向けてのさらなる成長（ランプアップ）はまだ織り込まれていないんだ。 だから、この銘柄を自分のコア（主力）銘柄にしたよ！当然、事業遂行リスクや株式の希薄化リスクもあるけど、それ以上にアップサイドを狙う価値があると思ったんだ。特に米国最優先の企業だっていうのが大きいね。
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IQE具十倍潜力但债务与稀释风险高，类似比特币矿机产能重构。
谢谢！$IQE 绝对是那种“为什么你早没告诉我”的十倍股潜力标的（moonshots）。 但大幅上涨潜力的背后，是债务和执行层面实质性的更高风险——即向磷化铟（InP）外延晶圆（epiwafers）重构产能。 我只是想把我的投资论点（thesis）抛出来看看市场反应，但由于稀释风险很高，这绝对不是适合每个人的交易。 同意，这确实让我想起比特币矿机厂商，他们拥有所有产能，只需将其投入到正确的用途中。
英文原文
Thanks! $IQE is definitely one of those moonshots “why didn’t you tell me this earlier” if it ends up going 10x type picks. But reason for a lot of upside is materially higher risk from debt and execution -> refactoring capacity toward InP epiwafers. Just wanted to put my thesis out there and see how it goes, but it’s definitely not a trade for everyone due to high risk of dilution. Agreed, it does remind me of Bitcoin miners, they have all the capacity just need to put it toward good use.
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Siflower盈利源于建设周期，AAOI规模化后必盈利。
@siflower 的业绩是其建设阶段资本支出(capex)周期的结果。他们目前销售的产品已实现盈利。$AAOI 在规模化后肯定会实现盈利。
英文原文
@siflower earnings was a result of their capex cycle from buildout. theyre profitable on the products they sell. $AAOI will most definitely be profitable at scale.
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估算AAOI远期市盈率仅6-8倍，认为其估值极具吸引力。
@MarkoTominic 如果 $AAOI 实现约 43 亿美元营收和 40% 毛利率，根据粗略估算，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 可能在 6.3-7.8 倍左右。当然，还需要更多时间进行建模验证。这就是为什么我说它看起来极其便宜。
英文原文
@MarkoTominic $AAOI forward p/e might sit around ~6.3-7.8x from some napkin math if they hit ~$4.3B revenue, 40% gross profit. But of course need some more time to do modeling. That's why I'm saying it's looks extremely cheap.
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看好AAOI估值，计划加仓并预期涨价。
是的，我在这个价位买入，并尽可能增加对 $AAOI 的敞口。如果他们实现 2027 年中 43 亿美元 ARR*（年度经常性收入）的目标，即使考虑到短期 ATM（非稀释性融资），它也被低估了。这还没有计入涨价因素，而在超大规模云服务商试图为分配而建设的情况下，涨价是一个可能的场景。
英文原文
Yes I'm buying at these levels and increasing my exposure as much as possible for $AAOI. If they hit their $4.3B ARR* (ARR should be added to post) 2027 mid-year target. It's undervalued, even factoring in short term ATMs. This is not factoring in price hikes either, which is a likely scenario is hyperscalers are trying to build for allocation.