个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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伊朗冲突利好Reddit，市场定价错误
仅持股。我查看了 Elon 关于 X 平台连续创纪录参与度的帖子： -> 委内瑞拉：创纪录参与度 -> 伊朗：参与度再创新高。 同时我也关注了关于 $PINS / $META 看空论点的评论，即广告商因时间线问题而减少支出。 但 $RDDT 或许是极少数能因战争期间用户参与度/流量激增而获得隔离效应+受益的社交媒体公司之一。 因此我认为伊朗冲突对 Reddit 整体利好，而市场定价错误。
英文原文
Shares only. I was looking Elon's posts about X having record engagement back to back: -> Venezuela: Record engagement -> Iran: Even higher record engagement. And was looking at other comments around $PINS / $META bear case indicators of advertisers pulling spend due to timelines. But $RDDT is perhaps the one of the only few social media companies that has isolation + benefits from a massive spike of user engagement/traffic during war. Hence why I think the conflict in Iran is net bullish for Reddit and markets are pricing it wrong.
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战时流量激增且广告隔离，$RDDT 下季业绩有望大幅超预期。
Reddit ($RDDT) 实际上看起来： 在战时异常看涨。 我的论点是，他们很可能会大幅超出下一个季度的盈利预期。 以下是市场忽略的内容： 1. 战时极端的用户参与度。 重大实时事件期间的两大西方平台：X 和 $RDDT。 像 $PINS 这样的公司可能不会从战争带来的参与度增加中受益，$META 可能仅受益于一小部分增长。 但所有人都涌向 Reddit 和 X。 -> 在全球危机期间，数百万焦急、高意图的搜索查询将人们从 Google 引向 Reddit。 -> 以及对正在发生的事件的直接讨论流量，导致更长的参与度 + 广告展示 + 总体流量。 Elon Musk / X 确认在伊朗冲突初期 X 平台的使用量创纪录。 并确认在委内瑞拉冲突期间参与度创纪录。 Reddit 的情况可能也是如此。 许多数据本月未公开（例如 Similarweb 估算），但我有高度信心，Reddit 在此期间也实现了创纪录的参与度。 委内瑞拉冲突可能导致了短期的活动爆发，但伊朗冲突持续时间较长，是十年来最大的冲突之一。 2. 广告主的避险情绪 通常的观点是 $META 和 X 拥有峰值参与度，但广告主在战时会撤下广告。 特别是因为 $META 和 X 可能在同一个信息流中展示伊朗冲突 + 金融等不同事件的巨大时间线： 然而： $RDDT 是最独特的社交媒体平台之一，因为其 subreddit 是隔离的。 /r/leagueoflegends 或 /r/wallstreetbets 的内容与 /r/iran 和 /r/worldnews 是隔离的。 3. Reddit 保守估计盈利 2026 年 Q1 营收指引 5.95-6.05 亿美元于 2 月初发布，此时尚未受到 2 月下旬伊朗冲突引发的巨大流量异常和可能的广告预算重新分配的影响。 我预期在发布财报时，营收将大幅超出预期。 _ Reddit ($RDDT) 是一个非对称的多头头寸，实际上在战时极度看涨，这与社交媒体总体看跌的普遍假设相反。 目前尚无公开的盈利历史来证明这一点（因为 Reddit 在乌克兰冲突期间尚未上市）。 但我的 alpha/论点是前所未有的： 我们将看到 Reddit 成为战时少数看涨的社交媒体平台之一。 我们将通过其财报来验证这一点是否属实。
英文原文
Reddit ( $RDDT ) in fact looks: Exceptionally Bullish during War. My thesis is that they will likely blow away next quarter earnings expectations. Here's what the market missed: 1. Extreme User Engagement during Wartime. The major two Western outlets during live events: X and $RDDT. Companies like $PINS likely do not benefit from increased engagement from War and $META may benefit from a tiny uptick. But everyone flocks to Reddit and X. -> During a global crisis, millions of frantic, high-intent search queries lead people to Reddit from Google. -> As well as direct traffic from discussion on what's going on, leading to longer-engagement + ad views + traffic in general. Elon Musk / X confirmed record usage of the X platform during the initial conflict with Iran. And confirmed record engagement during the conlifct with Venezuela. This is likely the same with Reddit. A lot of this data is not public this month (eg. Similarweb estimates), but it's high confidence, both Reddit also achieved record engagement during this time. The Venezuela conflict may have led to a short burst in activity, but the Iran conflict is extended and one of the largest ones of the decade. 2. Flight to Safety from Advertisers The typical view is $META and X have peak engagement, but advertisers pull ads during war. Especially as $META and X might show massive timelines of different events from Iran conflict + Finance in one feed: However: $RDDT is one of the most unique social media platforms as they're isolated with subreddits. Things from /r/leagueoflegends or /r/wallstreetbets are isolated from /r/iran and /r/worldnews. 3. Reddit Sandbagging earnings Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $595–$605 million was issued in early February, before the massive traffic anomaly and likely advertiser budget reallocation triggered by the late-February Iran conflict. My expectation is a larger then normal revenue beat when it comes time to announce earnings. _ Reddit ( $RDDT ) is an asymmetric long that's actually extremely bullish during wartime, against common assumption that social media is net bearish. There's been no public earnings history to show this yet (since Reddit was not public during Ukraine conflict). But my alpha/thesis is for the first time ever: We'll see Reddit show up as one of the only bullish social media platforms during war. We'll find out of this is true or not during their earnings.
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建议在高IV时短期卖出单一航司看跌期权。
@BrunoCptn 不，如果你要卖出看跌期权(Selling Puts)，应该针对像 $AAL 或 $DAL 这样的单一航空公司，且期限要短，隐含波动率(IV)要高。 但这也是个不错的交易思路。
英文原文
@BrunoCptn No, if you’re selling puts do it on individual airliners like $AAL or $DAL, short term, where IV is high. But that’s a great trade idea too
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$XLU 走势未变，仍是电网/AI/降息驱动的两年期交易。
@RoshiPosts $XLU 的情况没有任何变化，尤其是过去两到三周内。这是一个关于电网现代化、AI 推理和降息的两年期无聊交易。
英文原文
@RoshiPosts Nothing’s changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It’s a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.
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市场前瞻6-12个月，CVX启动期在2028年。
@ehaibag 市场通常具有前瞻性，领先约6-12个月。此外，2028年也在$CVX启动的时间范围内。 https://t.co/auxkgQe86Q
英文原文
@ehaibag Markets are forward looking by like 6-12 months. Also 2028 is in the timeframe $CVX gets going. https://t.co/auxkgQe86Q
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建议通过做多低波动率的$JETS期权来反向博弈原油价格。
如果你想反向操作吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）的原油交易，这里有一个交易思路： 做多 $JETS（美国航空股ETF）2028年看涨期权，此时隐含波动率（IV）为25%。 它的定价显示低贝塔值（25% IV），但本月跌幅达20%。 单独做多 $DAL 或 $AAL 的隐含波动率高达55%以上，而该ETF的波动率基本保持在相近水平。 此外，美国在原油方面相比世界其他地区更具隔离性，且该ETF主要集中于美国航空公司。 航空股与原油走势相反并非什么秘密。 当然，如果吉姆·克拉默、Wallstreetbets和X上的末日论者关于200美元油价的预测成真，这笔交易存在风险。 但鉴于当前时间点，油价有足够的均值回归空间，加上委内瑞拉产量恢复。 简而言之：如果你想做原油的反向操作，隐含波动率低于30%的 $JETS 是最佳选择。
英文原文
For trade ideas if you want to inverse Jim Cramer on the oil trade: Long $JETS (US Airliner ETF) 2028 calls where IV is 25%. It’s priced low beta (25% IV) but it moved -20% this month. Individual long on $DAL or $AAL carries elevated 55%+ IV, while the ETF basically moves relatively around the same rate. US is largely insulated regarding oil compared to the rest of the world as well and the ETF is concentrated around US airliners. Not exactly a very well kept secret airliners move in the opposite direction of oil. Of course this trade carries risks in the event Jim Cramer, Wallstreetbets, and X doomposters are actually right about $200 oil. But given the date, there’s enough time for oil prices to revert to mean + Venezuela production to get rolling. TLDR: if you want to go the other direction of crude oil, $JETS at sub 30 IV is the best way to go.
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调侃IQE可能面临信心危机。
@CryptoVandelay 😂，$IQE 可能面临信心危机。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay 😂, $IQE might have confidence issues.
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HIMS需散户逼空，最坏情况可低价买入优质公司。
我只是对当前局势补充一些评论。$HIMS 确实需要大量的散户买入压力来迫使空头回补(Short Squeeze)。但我不知道事态会如何发展，最坏的情况是，你能以低于法律纠纷发生前的价格买到一家基本面扎实的公司。最终，人们应该自己做决定！
英文原文
I’m just adding commentary on the current situation. $HIMS does require a lot of retail buying pressure to force cover. But no idea how this unfolds, worse case scenario you get a solid company at prices lower than before the legal drama. People should make their own decision in the end!
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肯定HIMS基本面与分销网络，批评做空机构
@moninvestor 从根本上说，$HIMS 是一家非常稳健的公司，拥有宝贵的分销网络。否则，如果它是一只没有基本面的 meme 股，我也不会提及它。话虽如此，我希望那些对 $HIMS 进行方向性做空的对冲基金得到他们应得的下场。 https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
英文原文
@moninvestor It is, fundamentally $HIMS is a very solid company with a valuable distribution network. Otherwise wouldn’t be mentioning it if it were a meme stock with no fundamentals. That being said, I hope those directional hedge fund shorting HIMS get what they deserve. https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
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HIMS宣布与NVO合作，高做空率或引发类似GME的空头挤压。
突发消息：$HIMS 首席执行官宣布与 $NVO 建立合作伙伴关系。 这证实了彭博社周五的报道。 鉴于超过40%的流通盘被做空，且与诺和诺德(Novo)的合作关系透明化： 下周该股将成为以下双方的战场： 散户 vs. 做空者。 如果散户获胜且不投降，可能会引发类似游戏驿站(GameStop)从3美元涨至150美元以上的最大规模空头挤压(short squeeze)之一。
英文原文
Just in: CEO of $HIMS announces partnership with $NVO. This is confirmation of the report on Friday from Bloomberg. With 40%+ of the float sold short and transparency around the Novo partnership: This next week will end up as a battleground stock for: Retail vs. Short Seller. And if retail wins and doesn’t capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+.
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$AAOI获超大规模客户大额订单，基本面验证优于内部人抛售担忧。
“$AAOI 收到来自主要超大规模客户的首笔 1.6T 数据中心光收发器(Transceivers) 2 亿美元批量订单” “我们预计很快将成为美国最大的 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器产能基地” 这逐渐证实了他们盈利预测中每月 3.78 亿美元的收入预期。 人们曾对内部人抛售感到恐慌，但关键在于执行力和基本面。 尤其是当他们获得来自 $AMZN、$META 或 $GOOGL 等超大规模客户(Hyperscalers)的批量订单时。
英文原文
$AAOI Receives First $200M Volume Order of 1.6T Data Center Transceivers from Major Hyperscale Customer” “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the U.S” This is gradual confirmation of $378m/month revenue from their earnings projections. People were panicking over insider sales, but what matters is execution and fundamentals. Especially when they’re getting volume orders from Hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, or $GOOGL
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澄清 $IREN 董事会即管理层，区别于普通工程师。
@LandoInvests @chiptomunk 我表述得很准确。董事会(Board of Directors)就是 $IREN 的管理层。如果是某个随机的工程师，那就不一样了。
英文原文
@LandoInvests @chiptomunk I phrased it correctly. Board of directors is $IREN management. If it were some random engineer, then no.
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指出 Mike Alfred 担任 IREN 董事
@chiptomunk 你难道不知道 Mike Alfred 是 $IREN 的董事会成员吗？
英文原文
@chiptomunk You do realize Mike Alfred sits on the board of $IREN right?
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建议待SK海力士财报发布后两个月再行庆祝
@sch97426428 等 SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 发布财报后再过两个月回来庆祝吧
英文原文
@sch97426428 Come back in 2 months after SK Hynix releases earnings and celebrate
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AI存储股中断担忧被夸大，建议不加杠杆做多。
@dimitrisnatsis - 关于AI概念股（如存储芯片公司）面临中断的担忧被夸大了。 - 不要使用保证金(margin) - 中长期的多头头寸(longs)非常有吸引力。
英文原文
@dimitrisnatsis - Lot of fears regarding disruption of AI names like memory companies are overblown. - don’t use margin - medium-long term very compelling longs.
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SK海力士/三星基本面未受能源危机实质影响，恐慌性抛售提供买入机会。
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
英文原文
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.
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分析指出SK海力士和三星利润未受能源价格实质影响，市场情绪短期主导。
@jayjay12246 是的，我已经完成了分析，发现SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的营业利润并未受到石油、液化天然气(LNG)和氦气(Helium)的实质性影响。尽管表面看起来很吓人。人们短期内交易的是情绪。如果你的名字不是$HIMS，整体情绪看起来相当糟糕。
英文原文
@jayjay12246 Yeah, I’ve already done the analysis and found SK Hynix/Samsung operating income wasn’t very materially affected by Oil, LNG, and helium. Even though it looks very scary. People trade off sentiment short term. And sentiment looks pretty bad in general if your name is not $HIMS.
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指出HIMS积压订单激增，但对其后续走势持观望态度。
@frsinvesting 是的，我已经看到 $HIMS 积压了数百万美元的订单。不过我不确定这最终会如何演变，只是对当前局势进行评论。 https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
英文原文
@frsinvesting Yeah I’m already seeing millions in backlogged orders for $HIMS. Idk how it plus out though, just commentating in the situation. https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
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为被做空重创的$HIMS投资者加油，并讽刺做空者。
@moninvestor 如果 $HIMS 发生那样的情况会很有趣。 我个人只是在为过去几个月被做空者重创的 $HIMS 投资者加油。 希望他们至少能从试图让美国公司破产的尝试中吸取一些教训。
英文原文
@moninvestor Would be interesting if that happened for $HIMS. I’m personally just cheering on the $HIMS investors that were beat up by short sellers over the past few months. Hopefully they at least learn some lessons trying to bankrupt American companies.
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$HIMS因与$NVO合作及基本面反转，周一或现逼空行情。
$HIMS 隔夜交易即将开始，周五收盘价为 $22。 此前该股交易价为 $70，但鉴于： - $NVO / 美国政府诉讼威胁使公司破产 - $HIMS 来自 GLP-1 的收入减速。 空头做空了该公司 40% 以上的流通盘。 所有这一切在周五盘后发生了逆转，据彭博社报道，$NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作，这是一个极其令人惊讶的事件。 由于收入重新加速、为全球扩张进行的新收购、资产负债表无破产威胁，以及现在与 $NVO 的合作： 空头现在面临无限亏损，做空了接近一半的流通盘。 目前的格局看起来非常适合发生逼空(short squeeze)。 然而，结果主要取决于散户的反应，或者他们是否会向空头投降。 无论如何，每个人都会关注周一，看看 $HIMS 的仙人掌药丸(cactus pills)是否能作为对抗原油的宏观经济避险资产。
英文原文
$HIMS overnight trading will begin soon after finishing Friday at $22. Previously it traded at $70, but given: - $NVO / US Gov lawsuit threatening to bankrupt the company - $HIMS revenue deceleration from GLP-1. Short sellers shorted 40%+ of the company’s float. All of that flipped Friday after hours once $NVO partnered up with $HIMS per Bloomberg, in an extremely surprising event. Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO: Short sellers now face infinite losses, selling close to half of the float short. And the setup looks prime for a short squeeze. However, the outcome primarily depends on how retail reacts or if they capitulate to short sellers. Either way, everyone will be watching Monday to see whether $HIMS cactus pills serves as a macroeconomic flight to safety against crude oil.
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指出IREN风险披露被无视，暗示市场处于非理性阶段。
@CK_Cryptoklepto 我们可能正处于这个阶段，因为我指出 $IREN 的风险披露(risk disclosures)就被称为机器人(bot)了，哈哈 https://t.co/DTM73USeMx
英文原文
@CK_Cryptoklepto We’re probably at this stage since I’m getting called a bot for pointing out $IREN risk disclosures lol https://t.co/DTM73USeMx
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BKKT等公司利用热点炒作后通过ATM减持，散户受损严重。
纵观 $BKKT、$ASST 以及可能的 $IREN，其策略如出一辙。围绕热门叙事（比特币库藏、AI 智能体、数据中心）制造巨大的散户炒作热度，等待股价飙升，随后立即通过定向增发(ATM)抛售股份以资助运营并支付高管基于股票的薪酬(SBC)。公司本身没问题，但个体散户股东受到的伤害最大。
英文原文
Across $BKKT, $ASST, and maybe $IREN. The strategy has been identical. Generate massive retail hype around a hot narrative (Bitcoin treasuries, AI agents, DCs), wait for the stock to spike, and immediately dump shares via ATMs to fund operations and pay executive SBCs. The companies themselves are fine but the individual retail shareholder is left hurt the most.
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呼吁理性看待 $IREN 风险及 ATM 融资争议
没错。很高兴大家能看清全貌，从而就 $IREN 的风险做出明智决策。不幸的是，为了证明 60 亿美元 ATM（自动取款机融资）的合理性，出现了大量人身攻击。但我认为任何理性的投资者都能从噪音中辨别出大方向的正确性。
英文原文
Exactly. It’s good people have the full picture so people can make informed decisions from risks with $IREN. Unfortunately there’s been a lot of personal attacks to explain why the $6B ATM is justified. But I think any rational investor can discern what’s directionally right from the noise.
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反驳对IREN和BKKT风险的忽视，指出巨额烧钱和管理层关联。
@JC_GetRichSlow 当存在60亿美元的重大现金消耗(ATM)时，这并没有为讨论增添任何价值。 此外，$IREN 管理层还参与了 $BKKT 等公司，这也是公开信息。 将明显的风险和历史记录斥为“散布恐慌”是无关紧要的。 https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
英文原文
@JC_GetRichSlow It’s not adding nothing to the dialogue when there’s a material $6 Billion USD ATM. It’s also public information $IREN management was involved companies $BKKT as well. Dismissing clear risks and track records as “fearmongering” is immaterial. https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
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指出IREN管理层过往记录公开，质疑信任其处理稀释的论点。
尽管你可以随意发表看法，但这无法改变事实。关于 $IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的过往记录，所有信息都是公开的。如果某人的核心论点是“信任管理层能处理好稀释问题”，那么了解这一点确实至关重要。
英文原文
Feel free to say whatever you want, but it doesn’t change the reality of things. It’s all public information with $IREN management track record with $BKKT and $ASST. It’s definitely important to know if someone is making the primary argument of trusting in management to handle dilution
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警告 IREN 60 亿 ATM 稀释将重创散户，勿盲目信任管理层。
支持 Iren 进行 60 亿美元稀释的主要论点是： “信任 $IREN 管理层对稀释的管理能力。” 如果你查看 IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的实际历史： 这两家公司都通过自动做市商(ATM)发行彻底摧毁了股东价值。 导致所有原始散户股份价值下跌 98-99%。 像 Bakkt 这样的公司表现尚可。 但高管的股票薪酬 + 稀释抹去了散户的所有股权价值。 如果一家公司申请 60 亿美元的 ATM 稀释，你应该预期他们会使用它并据此调整仓位。 也许 $IREN 的结果会不同。 但一边说“信任管理层”，一边看这些炒作型散户股票的管理层记录 -> ATM 稀释抹去所有价值的情况已多次发生。 公司最终可能没事，别把这和你的股票表现混为一谈。 我最关心散户股东胜过公司高管，这就是我分享关于 $IREN 60 亿 ATM 的红旗信号的原因。
英文原文
The primary argument for Iren’s $6B dilution was: “Trust in $IREN management with managing dilution.” If you look at the actual history of IREN management with: $BKKT and $ASST. Both companies have completely obliterated shareholder value from ATM dilution. Dropping all original retail share value down by 98-99%. Companies like Bakkt have been doing okay. But both stock based compensation to executives + dilution wiped out all equity value from retail. If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly. Maybe $IREN turns out differently. But saying “Trust in Management” then looking at the track record of management of hype retail stocks -> ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times. The company will likely end up fine don’t conflate that with the performance of your shares. I care the most about retail shareholders over corporate executives, which is why I’m sharing the red flag about $IREN $6B ATM.
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澄清对IREN的分析仅为风险提示，非买卖建议。
@Peregrino1708 是的，同意。我并没有告诉人们要卖出或买入 $IREN，只是列出风险和最可能的结果。最终人们可以自由做出自己的选择。但拥有基于实质而非其他持有者带来的无关噪音的理性推理是很好的。
英文原文
@Peregrino1708 Yep, agreed. I’m not telling people to sell or buy $IREN, just laying out the risks and most likely outcomes. In the end people are free to make their own choices. But it’s good to have grounded reasoning outside of immaterial noise from other holders.
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指出EWY因穿透结构高度集中于SK海力士和三星。
并非如此，$EWY 主要由 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)构成，这得益于像 SK Square（90% 净资产价值 NAV 来自 SK 海力士）或三星电子的其他投票权结构股份等穿透式结构。 或者是其他三星旗下公司，其净资产价值由持有三星电子股份构成。 它的集中度比绝大多数人意识到的要高得多。
英文原文
Not really, $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung due to pass through structures like SK Square (90% NAV Sk Hynix) or Samsung Electronic’s other voting structure shares. Or other Samsung companies NAV made up of holding Samsung Electronics shares. It’s a lot more concentrated than the vast majority of people realize.
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建议等待 $IREN 稀释周期结束且散户提供流动性后再做多。
是的，这是完美的总结。人们将 $IREN 业务表现良好（我认为作为一家与 $MSFT 合作的 DC 它也会如此）与其股价表现良好混为一谈。等待现有散户/逢低买入者为 60 亿美元的稀释周期提供流动性，待其结束后再建立多头头寸，是高度理性的。
英文原文
Yes this is the perfect summary. People conflate $IREN doing well (which I think it will too as a DC with $MSFT partnership), with their share prices doing well. Waiting for existing retail/dip buyers to serve as liquidity for the $6 billion dilution cycle finishes before going long is a highly rational.
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IREN公司虽能成功，但60亿稀释压力将压制股价。
@mattpurdy89 谢谢，我的观点非常微妙。我认为 $IREN 作为一家公司会取得成功。但这并不意味着你的股价也会上涨。这仅仅是由于 $60 亿不可避免的稀释和抛售压力这一结构性现实所致。
英文原文
@mattpurdy89 Thanks, my thought is very nuanced. I think $IREN as a company will succeed. But that doesn't mean your share prices will too. That's just due to the structural realities of $6B in inevitable dilution and selling pressure.