· 个股论点

伊朗霍尔木兹海峡布雷,推荐两只水下战争纯正标的$KRKNF和$CODA,均有优质基本面。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

10分钟前来自Reuters的消息: 消息人士新确认伊朗已在霍尔木兹海峡部署了约十枚水雷。 我发现有两只水下 warfare(海上战争)股票很有意思,可以提供敞口。 $KRKNF 章鱼🦑和$CODA 水母。 $KRKNF:Kraken Robotics,Anduril(安杜里尔)的供应商,是海上战争领域最纯正的标的之一: 他们生产合成孔径声纳(SAS)和SeaPower电池,许多防务主承包商如Anduril都依赖这些。 Anduril最近在罗德岛开设了一家工厂,用于大规模生产UUV(无人水下航行器)(如Dive-LD和Ghost Shark)。 根据零售端BOM估算: - Dive-LD携带价值1M至2M加元的Kraken硬件 - Ghost Shark XL-AUV携带价值8M至10M加元。 如果Anduril实现量产:收入增长是可期的。 我不会基于收入预测来建模Kraken,而更像看Anduril能扩展到多大(类似于用$GOOGL的TPU来建模$LITE)。 但财务状况、资产:3.015亿美元,负债:6570万美元,总债务约2410万美元,看起来相当健康。毛利率59%的基础上实现60%的年度收入增长。 至于在海峡排雷,他们有KATFISH猎雷无人机。以及用于生成海底3D图像的SAS声纳,用于识别埋藏的水雷。 $CODA:Coda Octopus,基本上是伊朗布雷这一情境的纯正敞口。 他们的主要产品是Echoscope实时3D/4D/5D体积声纳,可在浑浊、漆黑的水中绘制静态和移动物体的图像。 这一技术延伸至其他产品如"NANO Gen Series",即作为UUV感知传感器的Echoscope版本。 还有一个供潜水员使用的增强显示设备(SPECWAR已订购),基本上就是将Echoscope声纳数据反馈给人员。 CODA的资产负债表非常亮眼。最新FY2025报告(截至2025年10月),他们持有2870万美元的纯现金,且没有长期债务。 毛利率也非常高,综合毛利率66.5%,而大多数防务承包商只有10-20%。 2025年收入2660万美元,同比增长30.7%,净利润410万美元,能实现盈利实属难得。 基本上他们的声纳/探测产品组合对于这个具体情境来说是非常纯粹的标的,即使没有这个催化剂,基本面也非常扎实。 无论如何,伊朗在海峡布雷并不是一个重大的TAM(总可寻址市场)增加。 然而,它确实提醒投资者和政府,战争可能转向水下: 从而带来更多板块资金流入以及防务合同机会。 这些是我个人的两只最爱,既然发表了看法,也希望对其他人有帮助。

英文原文

Just in 10M ago from Reuters: New confirmation from sources that Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. There's two very aquatic warfare stocks I found interesting for exposure. $KRKNF the Squid🦑and $CODA the Octopus. $KRKNF: Kraken Robotics, the Andruil supplier, is one of the more pure play stocks for the acquatic warfare sector: They build Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) and SeaPower batteries that many defense primes like Andruil rely on. Anduril recently opened a facility in Rhode Island to mass produce UUVs (eg. Dive-LD and Ghost Shark). According to retail BOM estimates: - Dive-LD carries $1M to $2M CAD in Kraken hardware - Ghost Shark XL-AUV carries $8M to $10M CAD. If that Anduril ramps happens: the revenue ramp is there. I wouldn't try and model Kraken based off revenue projections but more like how much Andruil scales (similar modeling $LITE based on $GOOGL TPU) But financials, assets: $301.5M, Liabilities: $65.7M, Total debt: ~$24.1M so looks pretty healthy. 60% YoY revenue growth off 59% gross margins. As for demining the strait, they have the KATFISH mine-hunting drone. And SAS Sonar for 3D images of the seafloor for identifying buried mines. $CODA: Coda Octopus, basically pure play exposure to Iran placing mines. Their main product is Echoscope real-time 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar that maps static and moving objects in murky, pitch-black water. This carries forward to other products like "NANO Gen Series", Echoscope version as a perception sensor for UUVs. And then a diver augmented display (that SPECWAR ordered), which is basically the Echoscope sonar feeding people data. CODA has an amazing balance sheet. Recent FY2025 report (ending Oct 2025), they hold $28.7 million in pure cash and have zero long-term debt. Gross margins are extremely high as well, consolidated gross margin of 66.5% while majority of defense contracotrs sit around 10-20%. $26.6M revenue for 2025, 30.7% Y/Y increase, and $4.1M net income, which is rare to be profitable. But basically their product set of sonar / detection looks perfect pure play for this exact scenario and they’re fundamentally very sound, without the catalyst. Regardless, Iran mining the straight isn't exactly a major TAM increase. However, it does alert investors and the government that warfare may transition underwater: Leading to more sector inflows as well as defense contract opportunities. These were my two favorites personally, just publishing my thoughts here in case other's find this helpful.

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