个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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确认 Nebius 终于开始重新估值
@daniel_koss 对，$NBIS 终于重新估值了。
英文原文
@daniel_koss Yep, finally $NBIS has retuned. https://t.co/ZcqUmavnja
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认为 AXTI 才是最接近 Soitec 的对标
@brener_moshe 完全不同。 Soitec 最接近的对标其实是 $AXTI。
英文原文
@brener_moshe Way way different. Closest comparison to Soitec is $AXTI
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给出 Soitec 到 2027 年底可能涨 4 倍的个人预测
@WaterJunkieCat 到 2027 年底，我个人对 Soitec 的预测大概是 400%。
英文原文
@WaterJunkieCat Late 2027 maybe 400% is my personal projection for Soitec.
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高信念看多 Soitec，认为下行有限且上行巨大
@B38B37 我对 Soitec 还是高信念。 从这里看，我觉得下行风险不大，而来自 CPO 的上行空间非常大。 现在就是等一等，但感觉几乎是必然的。
英文原文
@B38B37 High conviction with Soitec, don’t see much downside risk from here and upside from CPO is massive. It’s just a waiting game but feels inevitable
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改变看法买入Soitec，认为CPO垄断地位叠加NVDA催化剂有望带来3倍回报。
改变了对Soitec ($SLOIF)的看法，建了一个约43美元的大仓位以获取CPO（共封装光学）敞口。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学及这一架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的溢价估值，垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法和分析师可能会对市场份额感到困惑，但在SOI基板上这实际上是垄断——他们授权给其他厂商如Shin Etsu是为了多样化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（而且大多数人甚至还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期的全部上涨空间，加上下周$NVDA GTC催化剂。 我个人认为从这里还有3倍空间，所以我做多了。
英文原文
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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说还有新名字，会继续找底部标的
@Kyrentz 还有几个新的，我今天晚些时候会发一个已经见底的名字。 不过像我之前提过的 $AAOI 这种票，大概率还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
@Kyrentz There’s a few new ones, I’ll post a name later today that’s bottomed. But things like $AAOI that I’ve mentioned likely have a long way to go
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继续把 CODA 当成最直接受益者
@DanzTrader 到目前为止，我发现 $CODA 是最直接的受益者，明显比其他名字更直接。 不过我还在继续看别的标的。
英文原文
@DanzTrader So far I’ve found $CODA to be the biggest direct beneficiary compared to the others. Still looking into other names though.
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表示会继续研究 OII
@U5sigma2 谢谢提醒，我会去看看 $OII。
英文原文
@U5sigma2 Will take a look into $OII next thanks.
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澄清非声纳专家，指出BAE和GD业务纯度低。
@FairValueHunter 不幸的是，我的专业领域并非声纳和水下雷探测。我只是因为这是新消息，所以发布了我找到的所有相关标的。 但一般来说，像 $BA（伦敦证券交易所上市的 BAE Systems，非波音）或 $GD 这样的大公司，其业务纯度（Pure Play）较低。
英文原文
@FairValueHunter Unfortunately, my field of expertise is not in sonar and underwater mine detection. I'm just publishing some stuff in all the names I find since this is new news. But generally, the larger the name like $BA (LSE) BAE Systems (not Boeing) or $GD less pure play it is
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伊朗布设水雷利好水下防御股，推荐声呐及排雷相关个股。
伊朗现在正在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷。 你可能和大家一样在想：我该如何从伊朗封锁石油水道中获利？ 方法如下： 水雷场声呐：$CODA，$KRKNF。 Coda Octopus（$CODA，市值1.74亿美元）：提供用于浑浊水域探测水雷的3D/4D/5D体积声呐。为美国海军爆炸物处理部队（EOD）提供DAVD以解除水雷。 Kraken Robotics（$KRKNF，市值29.7亿美元）：KATFISH拖曳式水下航行器正被北约海军积极用于高速、高分辨率的海底测绘和水雷搜索。 水雷识别与销毁： Exail（$EXALF，市值22亿美元）：运营MIDS——水雷识别与销毁系统。 这是水下防御公司今年最大的顺风： 随着战场从陆地转向水下：在海峡中搜索并摧毁伊朗水雷。 鉴于这是几分钟前才发布的最新新闻，我认为市场尚未将其计入价格。
英文原文
Iran is now deploying mines in Strait of Hormuz. You might be wondering like everyone else: How do I profit off Iran mining the waterway for oil? Here's how: Sonar for Minefields: $CODA, $KRKNF. Coda Octopus ( $CODA, $174M): 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar for mines in muddy water. DAVD for U.S. Navy EOD to defuse mines. Kraken Robotics ( $KRKNF, $2.97B): KATFISH towed underwater vehicle is actively used by NATO navies for high-speed, high-resolution seabed mapping and minehunting Mine Identification and Disposal: Exail ( $EXALF, 2.2B MC ): Operates MIDS - Mine Identification and Disposal Systems This is the biggest tailwind of the year for underwater defense companies: As the battle moves from land to underseas: Search and Destroy for Iranian mines in the Straight. Given this is brand new news, that came out a few minutes ago, don’t think they’ve been priced in yet.
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指出AXTI股价波动剧烈。
@platochi 是的，$AXTI 的波动性（volatility）太疯狂了 https://t.co/x1kccLqFSy
英文原文
@platochi Yeah $AXTI volatility is wild https://t.co/x1kccLqFSy
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修正$RIOT计算，建议等$IREN稀释后做多，看空其2027年表现。
我把原先 $RIOT 年初至今(YTD)的计算搞错了，所以删掉了原帖。但这原本是一个3-6个月的短期交易思路，利用 $IREN 的 ATM 增发对现有股东造成的稀释来交易。 我确实认为，如果 $IREN 能把 ATM 额度用满，长期表现会不错，因为这比 $CRWV 那种债务利息负担更好。但代价是现有持有人被稀释。 做多 $IREN 的更好方式，是先等现有股东被稀释，再在之后做多。 话虽如此，我不认为 $IREN 会在2027年跑赢这三只股票。
英文原文
Messed up my original $RIOT YTD calculations so ended up deleting my post. But, it was a 3-6M short term trade idea capitalizing off $IREN ATM on existing shareholders. I do think $IREN performs well long term if they manage to fill up the ATM since it's much better than debt interest that $CRWV does. But it's at the cost of current holders. The better way to go long with $IREN is to wait until existing shareholders get diluted first then go long after. That being said, I don't think $IREN will outperform all three in 2027.
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对比挖矿股结构优劣，认为CRWV和IREN更适合作为板块下跌的对冲工具。
@jorge_r006 $RIOT、$WULF、$NBIS 在结构上处于比 $CRWV 和 $IREN 更好的位置。因此，后两者在板块下跌时能提供更好的对冲作用。话虽如此，这只是我在深入研究后抛出的一个交易想法，我目前尚未建立任何头寸。
英文原文
@jorge_r006 $RIOT, $WULF, $NBIS look structurally in better positions than $CRWV and $IREN are. Hence why the latter two serve as better hedges in sector declines. That being said, just floating this trade idea out after doing more research, I haven't taken any positions yet.
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讽刺IREN称60亿ATM增发非稀释，质疑其逻辑。
这可能是我第一次听到有人说，60亿美元的 ATM 增发稀释实际上并不是“稀释”。 而且还说它其实是“增厚”的。 如果你真心相信这一点，并愿意为未来逐步在公开市场卖出的60亿美元新 $IREN 股票提供买盘流动性，那当然可以。
英文原文
It's probably the first time I've ever heard someone say $6B in ATM dilution was not in fact "dilutive". But in fact, "accretive". If you genuinely believe this and want to be buying liquidity for the $6 Billion in new $IREN shares sold over time into the open market, you're welcome to do so.
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Rosenblatt 分析师认为 $AAOI 市值被低估，且可能是 $ORCL 客户。
据 Rosenblatt 分析师称，$ORCL 可能是 $AAOI 的超大规模客户(hyperscaler client)。 当我首次发布关于 $AAOI 的观点时，大家的怀疑程度就像我对 $AXTI 的论点帖子一样强烈。 但别只听我的一面之词。 我在财报后分享的确切观点，现在也得到了其他机构分析师的呼应： “考虑到其 2027 年的收入潜力为 40 亿美元，该公司低于 80 亿美元的市场资本化市值过低。” —— Rosenblatt。 鉴于收入增长，光子(photonics)类股票的重定价之路可能还很漫长。
英文原文
$ORCL likely $AAOI hyperscaler client per Rosenblatt analyst. When I first posted about $AAOI everyone had extreme doubts like on my thesis post on $AXTI. But don’t take it from me. My exact same sentiment I shared after earnings is now echoed by other institutional analysts: “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B “ - Rosenblatt. Likely a long way to go for repricing photonic names given revenue ramp.
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HIMS估值核心在于其DTC分销网络，类比HOOD的规模化效应。
是的，围绕 $HIMS 销售的个别产品存在大量看空/看多案例的讨论。 我认为分析师/市场的方法错了： 我认为 $HIMS 的主要估值来源于其通过最近3次收购建立的独特全球零售直接面向消费者(DTC)分销网络。 这解锁了大量潜在收入流+变现机会，就像 $HOOD 为金融行业规模化所做的那样。
英文原文
Yes there's a lot of bear/bull case discussion around individual products $HIMS sells. I think analysts/markets are approaching it wrong: $HIMS main valuation I see is derived from their unique global retail DTC distribution network that they now have with their 3 recent acquisitions. This unlocks a lot of latent revenue stream + monetization, like what $HOOD did for the financial industry to scale.
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从分销网络和零售捕获角度评估HIMS估值。
@RawlJohns 我纯粹是从他们的分销网络(Distribution Network) + 零售捕获(Retail Capture)角度来看待 $HIMS 的估值。并不是看他们销售的单颗药丸，所以不太确定。
英文原文
@RawlJohns I'm purely looking at $HIMS valuation from their distribution network + retail capture angle. Not the individual pills they sell, so not sure.
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类比META和HOOD，看好HIMS全球DTC网络变现潜力。
难道没人看到 $HIMS、$META 和 $HOOD 之间的相似之处吗？ $HIMS 真的刚刚收购了全球最大的几家竞争对手： - Zava（欧洲/英国） - Livewell（加拿大） - Eucalyptus（澳大利亚/日本） 而且没有被反垄断阻止？ $META 十年前收购 WhatsApp 和 Instagram 这类公司时，也是几乎没有遇到阻力。 如今，由于 $META 最终成为万亿美元级垄断企业后留下的监管 PTSD，社交媒体公司已经不能再四处大举收购。 而 $HIMS 在这一轮并购之后，已经成为全球最大的独立零售 DTC（直接面向消费者）分销网络。 现在它只需要弄清楚，如何像 $HOOD 面向金融产品那样做交叉销售？ $HOOD 此前也遇到过 SEC 和 Gary 试图阻止其所有加密产品的情况。但自从监管麻烦清除后，他们通过向零售用户交叉销售金融科技产品，成功扩张成了一家700亿美元公司。 我看到了 $NVO / 监管机构试图阻止 $HIMS 产品供应之间的强烈相似之处。 不过，在 $NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作、FDA 也撤回威胁后，这种监管不确定性已经消除。潜力是存在的？ 我不可能是唯一一个看到 $HIMS 全球 DTC 零售分销网络及其潜在收入变现机会的人吧？
英文原文
Does nobody else see the parallels to $HIMS and $META and $HOOD? $HIMS literally just bought out the largest players around the world: - Zava (Europe/UK) - Livewell (Canada) - Eucalyptus (Australia/Japan) Without antitrust blocking it? $META did that a decade ago with companies like WhatsApp and Instagram with minimal friction. Now no social media company anymore can go on buying sprees due to regulator PTSD after $META ended up a trillion dollar monopoly. $HIMS now is the largest independent global retail DTC distribution network in the world, after their M&A spree. And just needs to figure out how to cross-sell products like what $HOOD did for financial products? $HOOD previously had the SEC + Gary trying to block all their crypto offerings. But ever since they got regulatory headaches cleared up, they managed to scale to become a $70B company off cross-selling fintech products to their retail audience. I'm seeing strong parallels to $NVO / Regulators trying to block $HIMS product offerings. However, that regulatory uncertainty is now cleared up after $NVO partnered with $HIMS and FDA dropped their threats. The potential is there? I can't be the only one who sees potential from $HIMS global DTC retail distribution network and latent revenue monetization?
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分析$HIMS收购潜力及变现依赖管理层执行力
真是出色的分析！我没想到自己会站出来为 $HIMS 辩护，但他们确实成功收购了以下企业：Zava（欧洲/英国）、Livewell（加拿大）、Eucalyptus（澳大利亚/日本）。他们还建立了全球最大规模的医疗保健零售客户网络（retail capture），且未受到联邦贸易委员会(FTC)或监管机构的制裁。这种潜力让人想起 $META 收购 WhatsApp 及其他平台的时期，并结合了 $HOOD 交叉销售(cross-selling)新功能的策略。最终，如何从这个巨大的分销网络中变现，完全取决于管理层的执行力。
英文原文
정말 훌륭한 분석입니다! 제가 나서서 $HIMS 를 옹호하게 될 줄은 개인적으로 꿈에도 몰랐지만, 그들은 실제로 다음 기업들을 인수하는 데 성공했습니다: Zava (유럽/영국) Livewell (캐나다) Eucalyptus (호주/일본) 그리고 세계 최대 규모의 헬스케어 리테일 고객 네트워크(retail capture)를 구축해 냈습니다. 이 모든 것을 FTC나 규제 당국의 제재 없이 해냈죠. 이런 잠재력을 보면 과거 $META 가 WhatsApp과 기타 플랫폼들을 인수했던 때가 확실히 떠오릅니다. 여기에 $HOOD 가 새로운 기능들을 교차 판매(cross-selling)했던 전략이 결합된 모습입니다. 결국, 이 거대한 유통 네트워크를 어떻게 수익화할지 그 방법을 찾아내는 것은 전적으로 경영진의 실행력에 달려 있습니다.
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看好$HIMS全球并购后的规模及分销优势，类比$META和$HOOD。
不太是吧？Ro 只在美国。$HIMS 在完成对其他全球重量级玩家的一轮并购后，规模要大得多。 这个全球分销网络没有因为反垄断被阻止，这让我看好 $HIMS，因为我看到了十年前 $META 收购潮的相似之处，也看到了 $HOOD 通过交叉销售变现零售用户的能力。
英文原文
Not really? Ro is US only. $HIMS is much larger in scale after their M&A spree of all the other global heavyweights. That global distribution network without any of them getting blocked by antitrust makes me bullish on $HIMS because I see parallels to $META's acquisition spree a decade ago + $HOOD's capacity to monetize retail audience through cross-selling.
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区分网络效应与资金/服务粘性，解析RDDT、HOOD及HIMS的护城河差异。
这不是网络效应。 像 $RDDT 这样的社交媒体具有网络效应，这就是为什么你不能在一天内用 vibe coding 复制 Reddit 并指望人们使用它。 $HOOD 具有高粘性，因为用户的资金在那里，且难以转出。 $HIMS 具有高粘性，因为更换医疗服务提供商很困难。
英文原文
It's not a network effect. Social media like $RDDT has a network effect, which is why you can't vibe code Reddit in a day and expect people to use it. $HOOD is sticky because people have their money there and it's difficult to transfer off. $HIMS is sticky because it's difficult to switch medical providers.
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类比Meta，看好HIMS全球并购后的变现潜力
完全同意，我看到 $HIMS 与 $META 十年前收购所有社交媒体公司的平行之处。 这在今天行不通，因为联邦贸易委员会(FTC)会阻止像 $RDDT 这样的公司收购其竞争对手如 $SNAP。 但 $HIMS 完成了一轮全球并购(M&A)热潮，通过收购欧洲的 Zava、加拿大的 Livewell 以及面向澳大利亚/日本的 Eucalyptus，建立了零售医疗分发的垄断护城河。 因此，既然 $HIMS 设法建立了全球零售医疗用户基础……随着监管问题得到解决，存在巨大的潜在收入变现潜力。
英文原文
Absolutely, I see the $HIMS parallel to $META acquiring all the social media companies a decade ago. This wouldn't work today since FTC would block companies like $RDDT acquiring all their competitors like $SNAP. But $HIMS pulled off a global M&A spree, building a monopoly moat over retail healthcare distribution from Zava in Europe, Livewell in Canada, and Eucalyptus for Australia/Japan. So, now that $HIMS somehow managed to build capture the global retail base for healthcare... With regulatory issues cleared up, there's a lot of latent revenue monetization potential.
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HIMS价值源于分销网络，且成功完成全球DTC并购。
@iraw000 我的观点是，$HIMS 的价值源于其分销网络，类似于 $AMZN 的配送体系，而非其销售的商品（如电脑、书籍）。此外，他们成功在全球范围内收购了主要的医疗 DTC（直接面向消费者）公司，且未遭遇监管阻碍。
英文原文
@iraw000 My argument is that $HIMS value is derived from their distribution network like $AMZN delivery. Not by the drugs they sell (eg. computers, books). And they managed to acquire the major healthcare DTC companies globally without getting blocked.
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HIMS的DTC分销网络是核心护城河，监管风险已解除，上行空间明确。
你刚才是不是直接跳过了整篇帖子？ 网络捕获能力和面向大众市场的零售分销网络才是 $HIMS 的护城河，而不是他们销售的药丸。 而且这条护城河非常深厚。对于潜在的变现流而言，这一点怎么强调都不为过。 例如 $HOOD 通过交叉销售新产品。 $HIMS 确实是首个在医疗领域达到这种规模的直接面向消费者(DTC)的企业。就像 $HOOD 在18美元时一样，总会有看空的情况。 $HIMS 的上行空间显而易见，且他们主要的监管问题已于上周五解决。 现在的关键在于他们能否找到新的变现途径。
英文原文
Did you just skip over the entire post? Network capture and retail distribution network at masses is $HIMS moat, not the pills they sell. And that moat is massive. This cannot be understated for latent monetization streams. eg. $HOOD with cross-selling new products. $HIMS is genuinely the first of its kind to reach this sort of scale DTC for healthcare. And there's always going to be bear cases like with $HOOD with $18. The upside is clearly there with $HIMS and all their main regulatory problems were cleared last Friday. It's more of whether or not they can figure out new monetization avenues.
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诺华合作撤诉消除$HIMS法律风险，基本面发生巨大转变。
是的，40%的SI（短期兴趣）此前是合理的。 在$NVO（诺华）达成合作并撤销诉讼之前，我对$HIMS也持看跌态度，这为$HIMS带来了收入流扩张和更明确的监管前景。 该诉讼曾威胁其整个资产负债表+收入增长+全球扩张，因此空头大量做空是合理的。 然而，上周五$HIMS的法律纠纷在一天内全部消失，这是十年来最大的惊喜。 这是一个巨大的基本面转变。
英文原文
Yes the 40% SI made sense earlier. I was bearish on $HIMS too until $NVO partnered up + dropped the lawsuit, giving $HIMS revenue stream expansion and more regulatory clarity. The lawsuit was threatening their entire balance sheet + revenue growth + global expansion, so it made sense why short sellers piled on. However, it was the biggest surprise of the decade last Friday when $HIMS's legal drama all vanished in a day. This is a massive fundamental shift.
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回顾HOOD监管解禁后解锁新收入流，类比HIMS前景。
事后诸葛亮。 当我在 $16 时做多 $HOOD 时，我意识到他们也可以通过加密货币(Crypto)和其他方式扩张。 然而，分析师们给出的 $HOOD 目标价仅为 $8-12，因为他们看不到其他收入流的变现能力。 这与 $HIMS 面临 GLP + $NVO 诉讼的情况类似，Gary Gensler 回归后，SEC 也试图阻止其新的加密货币产品，并最终起诉了 $HOOD。 然而，自从他们解决了这一监管问题后： 他们现在解锁了许多新的收入流，而加密货币是其中最大的一块。 我确实看到了 $NVO 和美国政府现在给 $HIMS 绿灯之间的相似之处。 金融科技/券商认为他们无法“轻松交叉销售”，但 $HOOD 成功打破了这一范式。 我不知道 $HIMS 是否也能做到，但我们会见分晓。
英文原文
Hindsight 20/20. When I was long $HOOD back at $16, I realized they could expand via Crypto and other methods too. However, analysts were all giving Robinhood $8-12 PTs because they didn't see capacity for monetization of other revenue streams. Similar to $HIMS with GLP + $NVO lawsuits, Gary Gensler back + SEC were also tried blocking their new crypto products and ended up suing $HOOD. However, ever since they cleared up that regulatory issue: They've now unlocked many new revenue streams and crypto is one of the biggest ones. I do see parallels with $NVO and US Gov now giving $HIMS the green light. Fintech/Brokerages thought they couldn't "cross-sell easily" but $HOOD managed to break that paradigm. IDK if $HIMS can do it too but we'll find out.
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分析$HIMS全球用户变现潜力，类比$HOOD/$META，建议做多。
感觉大家没有正确阐述 $HIMS 的多头逻辑： 这是我的观点。 $HIMS 的主要护城河是零售受众的网络捕获。 而多头逻辑在于潜在收入的货币化。 $HOOD 在 2025 年的金融科技领域实现了同样的效果。 $META（完全成熟后）在过去十年的社交媒体领域也实现了同样的效果。 $HIMS 现在正处于 2026 年的起点。 但鉴于 Zava + Eucalyptus 带来了全球（欧洲、澳大利亚、日本、加拿大）数百万新用户： $HIMS 现在在医疗领域拥有了独一无二的零售受众捕获能力。 然而，与市值约 700 亿美元的 Robinhood 和 1.6 万亿美元的 $META 巨头不同的是： 它们已经通过利润率优化和新收入流成功货币化了其零售受众。 而且非常激进。$HIMS 尚未做到。 Robinhood 通过推出银行/信用卡/预测市场等新产品做到了这一点。 现在这些新产品各自独立产生超过 1 亿美元的新收入流。 $META 通过收购 WhatsApp/Instagram 后最大化捕获每用户收入做到了这一点。 然而，$HIMS 尚未像在美国那样（例如睾酮疗法）获得同样的机会。部分原因是之前的诉讼。 现在这些障碍已清除，多头逻辑再次显现： 与其建模 Zava/Eucalyptus 传统带来的收入，重要的是关注通过人数实现的零售网络捕获。 因为这是最大的潜在收入来源 + 未被定价的收入预测超预期。 现在，十亿美元的问题是： $HIMS 最终会像 $HOOD 吗？ $HIMS 现在拥有医疗领域最大的零售网络 + 分销渠道之一。 然而，与金融科技或社交媒体渠道相比，医疗领域的交叉销售似乎更难。 它最终是成为 3000 亿美元公司还是 500 亿美元公司，取决于管理层能否解决这一问题。 因此，对于旁观者来说，如果 $HIMS 能够设法从新的全球用户群中实现潜在收入扩张，再次做多可能值得。~40%+ 的做空比例和新的 $NVO 合作也是巨大的加分项。
英文原文
Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly: Here's my view. The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences. And the bull case is latent revenue monetization. $HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025. $META (fully grown) achieved that same effect in the social media sector over the past decade. $HIMS is now at the starting point in 2026. But given millions of new users across the globe (Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada) from Zava + Eucalyptus: $HIMS now has that one-of-a-kind retail audience capture in the healthcare sector. However, the difference between ~$70B companies in Robinhood and $1.6T giants in $META is that: They've already successfully monetized their retail audiences both through margin optimization, and new revenue streams. And very aggressively. $HIMS has not yet. Robinhood did so by pushing new products from banking/credit cards/prediction markets/etc. And they are all now independently generating $100m+ each as new revenue streams. $META did so by capturing the maximum amount of revenue per user after acquiring WhatsApp/Instagram. However, $HIMS has not gotten the chance to yet in the same way they did with the US (eg. Testosterone). Especially partially due to former lawsuits. Now that's cleared up, the bull case can be seen again: Instead of modeling what revenue Zava/Eucalyptus traditionally brought, the important thing to look at is retail network capture through # of people. As this is biggest source of latent revenue + revenue projection beats not priced in. Now, the billion dollar question is: Will $HIMS end up like $HOOD? $HIMS now has the one of the largest retail networks + distribution for healthcare. However, cross-selling seems much harder in healthcare vs. fintech or social media channels. The answer whether it ends up a $30B company or a $5B one is up for management to figure out. So for people on the sideline, it might be worth flipping long again in the off-chance $HIMS manages to figure out latent revenue expansion from their new global userbase. The ~40%+ short interest and the new $NVO partnership serves as a huge bonus as well.
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RDDT基本面强劲，虽波动集中需耐心，无需成邪教股亦能大涨。
谢谢夸奖我帅。别觉得 $RDDT 必须像 $IREN 或 $ASTS 那样成为“邪教股”才能上涨 50%+。基本面理应自证价值！与其他标的相比，它一年中大部分行情集中在几天内完成，所以需要一些耐心。
英文原文
I appreciate being called handsome, thank you. Don’t think $RDDT needs to end up as a cult stock like $IREN or $ASTS for it to go up 50%+. As fundamentals should speak for itself! It does make most of its moves in just a few days out of the year compared to other names, so requires some patience.
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Reddit被极度低估，Q1数据超预期，是强买入标的。
同意，实际上确实有一些净经营亏损结转(NOL carry forwards)，但即使你将其建模推演至几年后。 $RDDT 相对于其增长和盈利能力而言被极度低估。 而且我认为战时状态实际上推高了2026年第一季度的参与度指标/营收数据，使其超出预期。 人们只看图表，觉得下跌很难看，但Reddit是我目前最强的买入标的。
英文原文
Agreed, there’s actually some net operating loss carry forwards but even if you model that out a few years from now. $RDDT is insanely undervalued relative to growth and profitability. And I think wartime actually boosted 2026 q1 engagement metrics/revenue numbers past expectations. People just look at the chart and think the drop is ugly, but Reddit is of the strongest buys for me right now.
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因$RDDT隐含波动率高，博主偏好直接持有正股。
@tristanfinazzo $RDDT 的隐含波动率(Implicit Volatility, IV)很高，所以我个人更倾向于只持有正股。
英文原文
@tristanfinazzo $RDDT is high IV so I personally prefer just shares only.