方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 651 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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根据风险偏好配置高增长股与稳健资产，无需全仓。
如果你想追逐更多收益，我会建议卖出你的“七巨头(Mag7)”去买入像 $NBIS 这样的高增长股票。如果你需要照顾家庭且无法承担任何风险，持有 SPY/QQQ/“七巨头(Mag7)”并让财富随时间缓慢复利增长也无可厚非。答案取决于你的风险承受能力。我对 $NBIS 有十足的信心，但你始终需要考虑那不到1%的黑天鹅(Black Swan)情景。像 $HOOD 这样的股票可能会出现80%的回撤，而“七巨头(Mag7)”的回撤幅度会小一些。此外，没人说你必须全仓！你可以始终只将投资组合的25%分配给某只股票。
英文原文
If you wanted to chase more gains, I'd sell your Mag7 for hypergrowth stocks like $NBIS. If you have a family to take care of and can't take any risk, there's nothing bad about holding SPY/QQQ/Mag7 and just compounding more slowly over time. Answer depends on your risk tolerance. I have full conviction in $NBIS but there's always the <1% black swan scenario you need to consider. There could always be a 80% drawdown in something like $HOOD but something like Mag7 would have a less drawdown. Also nobody said you had to full port! You can always allocate like 25% of your port to a stock
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分享交易决策逻辑，助读者学习波段交易与抄底技巧。
@ElectroSalamanc 谢谢！我看到很多这类买入/卖出(Buy/Sell)风格的帖子，但几乎没人真正解释原因。所以我认为分享基于今日价格波动+催化剂(catalysts)的每笔交易背后的推理逻辑会有所帮助。这类小事有助于人们随着时间推移学习波段交易(swing trading)和抄底时机(bottom timing)。
英文原文
@ElectroSalamanc Thanks! I see a lot of these Buy/Sell style posts but nobody really posts why. So I thought it would help to post reasoning behind each one based on today's price movements + catalysts. Little things like this help people learn swing trading + bottom timing over time.
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建议通过虚值期权和组合保证金降低行权风险，追求每周1%的可持续收益。
关键在于，如果 $AMZN 触及 207.5 的溢价位，或 $NBIS 触及 96 的溢价位，你应该求着被行权（assigned），这些也是你可以买入看涨期权（calls）的价位。我的建议是选择更虚值（OTM）的合约并使用组合保证金（portfolio margin），而不是像 $AMZN 215 那样选择更接近行权价的合约，从而降低每周被行权的风险。除了 HIMX、CIFR 和可能的 META，我提到的这几个行权价被触及的可能性较小；如果真触及了，你应持有股票进行波段交易（swing trade）。但正如你指出的，每周约 1% 的收益对大多数人来说更可持续。
英文原文
The thing is if $AMZN ever hits $207.5 - premium or $NBIS ever hits $96 - premium you should beg to get assigned and those are levels you might buy calls on. Going more OTM and using portfolio margin is my suggestion instead of going closer to strike like $215 on $AMZN and having higher risk of assignment every week. My strikes are less likely aside from hims/CIFR/ possibly meta up there are the three I'd say, and if they do hit, you want to hold the stock for a swing trade. But yeah as you pointed out 1% a week or so is a lot more sustainable for most people
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建议波段交易者接受期权行权通知以顺势买入。
@rioferdy838 @zenovaire 接受行权通知，因为如果你是做波段交易(swing trading)，你本来就会想在这些行权价买入那些股票。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @zenovaire Take assignment since you'd probably want to buy those stocks at those strikes anyway if you're swing trading.
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批评付费课程，指出高IV低贝塔期权卖出是复利关键。
@zenovaire 谢谢！是的，我只是看到随机的人说“卖出 $AMZN 看跌期权”并购买每年约 399 美元的课程，有点受够了。但通过高隐含波动率(IV)股票 + 低贝塔值(Beta)的保证金期权卖出策略，确实是许多人实现数百万美元复利增长的方式。这确实需要相当多的知识。
英文原文
@zenovaire Thanks! Yeah I just see random people saying "Sell $AMZN puts" and buy a course for like $399 a year and kinda got fed up. But playing higher IV stocks + low beta on margin option selling really is how a lot of people compound millions. It does take a quite of knowledge to do
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分享针对CIFR/IREN的周度看跌期权卖出策略及思维过程。
没问题！忘了在帖子里提到，如果你做这类交易，全是针对 $CIFR 或 $IREN 等标的的周度看跌期权(Put Option)卖出。我很少看到关于实际操作思维过程的帖子，而且我很多拥有1000万美元以上现金的前量化或分析师朋友也是这样做的。背后的思维过程有点难写清楚，但我尽力了哈哈。
英文原文
No problem! Forgot to mention in the post that it's all weeklies put option selling on stuff like $CIFR or $IREN if you're doing those. I don't really see many posts about the thought process how it's actually done and a lot of my former quant or analyst friends with $10m+ in cash do it this way too. Kinda hard to write out the thought process behind it but tried my best lol.
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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建议通过X平台深度研究捕捉NBIS等新云动量交易机会。
@Liquidity4Life 拥有这样的心态很棒。230% 的回报率简直令人惊叹，请继续保持你现在的做法。 但在 X 上获取更多深度研究(DD)确实有帮助，这样你就能捕捉到像 $NBIS 或新云(neoclouds)这样的突破和动量交易机会，而这些通常是你不会发现的。
英文原文
@Liquidity4Life That's a great mindset to have. 230% is an absolutely amazing return, just keep doing what you're doing. But it does help to take in more DD on X so you can catch breakouts and momentum trades like $NBIS or neoclouds that you normally wouldn't have discovered.
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建议使用富达，避免使用将订单流卖给做市商的券商。
@claudiohrios 富达(Fidelity)很棒。我只是说不要使用像 $HOOD 或 $BULL 这样将支付订单流(Payment Order Flow)路由给做市商的券商。
英文原文
@claudiohrios Fidelity is great. I was just saying don't use brokerages like $HOOD or $BULL with payment order flow that route to market makers.
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建议大量期权交易者转用盈透证券，小散户可留原券商。
@TribeRuffner 我进一步研究了一下，盈透证券(IBKR) 的期权执行可能最好。 如果你交易大量期权，绝对值得更换券商。 如果你只是小散户卖备兑看涨期权(CCs) 或单纯持有股票，留在 Robinhood 或嘉信理财(Schwab) 也没问题。
英文原文
@TribeRuffner Looked into it a bit more and IBKR probably has the best option execution. If you're touching large quantities of options it's 100% worth moving brokerages. If you're a little fish selling CCs or just holding stock, it's fine to stay in Robinhood or Schwab.
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对比PayPal与GOOGL、TSM的隐含波动率，质疑其期权溢价性价比。
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances 隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)为38%，对于像PayPal这样的标的来说处于较高水平，所以我不确定溢价是否真的便宜。例如，当我交易$GOOGL看涨期权时，隐含波动率为28%，或者$TSM为32%。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances IV is 38% which is on the higher end for something like PayPal though so not sure about premium being cheap. When I did $GOOGL calls they were 28% for example or $TSM was 32%.
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博主偏好持有股票而非频繁做CSP，认为股票上涨回报高于期权权利金。
不，我主要做看涨期权(Call Credits)，除非是财报季，因为我更倾向于持有股票。那些每周频繁做看跌期权(CSP)的人，很多时候现金占比高达80%。当然，你仍然可以用杠杆或20%的现金来做，但我偏爱不这么做，因为我抄底时机把握得相当好，且股票上涨带来的回报超过了CSP的权利金收益。是的，这些总是做周权。
英文原文
No I do mainly CC's unless it's earnings since I prefer to hold equities. People who do CSPs's every week a lot of times have like 80% cash. Obviously you can still do it with margin or 20% cash but I prefer not to do it since I time the bottom pretty well and returns on stock going up outweigh CSP premiums. Yeah always weeklies for these.
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建议模拟交易备兑看涨期权以学习，虽难掌握但优于收租。
嗯，为了学习目的，模拟交易（Paper Trade）你现有持仓的备兑看涨期权（Covered Calls）并观察是否每周都能获利，是个好主意。 仍然不建议初学者这样做，但如果能熟练掌握，利润非常可观。 我宁愿卖出备兑看涨期权（CSP），也不愿买房后出租，但我会说99%以上的人无法有效执行这一策略。 很高兴能帮上一点忙！
英文原文
Hmm, for learning purposes it's a good idea to paper trade covered calls on your existing stocks and see if you profit every week. Still don't recommend it for beginners, but highly profitable to learn if you get good at it. I'd prefer selling CSP over buying then renting out real estate but I'd say 99%+ of people can't do it effectively. Glad I was able to help a bit!
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作者打破只买正股规则，在特定黑天鹅或底部信号下转向期权策略。
我在这里打破了自己关于只买正股而非看涨期权(call)的经验法则——32%的隐含波动率(IV)股票，但通常如果发生黑天鹅事件导致无关紧要的下跌，例如 $IREN 因摩根大通(JPM)糟糕的目标价下跌14%。或者 $CIFR 下跌17%后仅因 $GOOGL 的支撑而下跌5%，这时我会转向看涨期权。通常如果我认为触底了，或者认为像 $TSM $AMZN 这样的股票会在几个月内上涨，且我在定投(DCA)，且IV没有偏离32%太多且不至于糟糕，我会考虑使用期权。当然也有例外，比如 $IBIT 高IV时跳入周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，但那是另一种策略。不过，抄底时机极难把握。
英文原文
I broke my own rule of thumb here about shares only vs. call -> 32% IV stock but usually if something black swans off something immaterial eg. $IREN 14% drop off JPM bs price target. Or $CIFR 17% drop into 5% drop off $GOOGL backstopping it, then I switch to calls. Usually if I think it's a bottom or if I think a stock would go up like $TSM $AMZN over a few months and I'm DCA and IV isn't way off 32% and horrendous I'd consider it. There's exceptions obviously like $IBIT with higher IV leaps into weekly covered calls but that's another strategy. Bottom timing is extremely hard though
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分享期权卖方策略经验：选对券商、小户用保证金、精通IV与财报风险。
补充一下关于学习期权卖方策略的讨论： 1. 券商选择极其重要，大资金账户切勿使用 $HOOD。他们声称免费，但可能是期权交易中最差的券商，因为他们将订单路由给做市商(MMs)，并通过糟糕的成交执行来赚取你的钱。除非你在Mag7或SPY上卖出低点差的现金担保看涨期权(Cash-Secured Calls, CCs)或现金担保看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts, CSPs)，否则请使用 $IBKR 进行订单执行，即使你以最低价格卖出，他们也能提供最好的成交。看似损失几美元，但每份合约0.2-0.4美元的执行差异能带来数千美元的差别。 2. 如果是小账户，我建议用保证金(Margin)代替2倍杠杆ETF，因为后者存在波动率衰减(Volatility Decay)。（你可以谷歌搜索为什么不要长期持有2倍杠杆ETF）。使用保证金有清算风险，但仍优于杠杆ETF。帖子中应该已经提到过这一点。 3. 学习股票的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)。例如，$HOOD 通常每天波动不超过4-6%。$NBIS 通常每天波动不超过7%。$TSM 很少出现单日4%以上的波动。如果你在 $NBIS 上卖出4天到期的CCs，例如6*4，卖出约$130的24%+虚值(Out-of-The-Money, OTM)期权（当前股价$107）通常是明智且盈利的。如果你卖出约$110的CCs，你是在要求股票被行权(Call Away)，这通常是你试图卖出股票时的策略。了解催化剂(Catalysts)也很重要。如果有财报(Earnings)发布，原始IV不再适用，因为股价可能大幅波动。财报期间的CCs策略完全不同。 4. CSP策略很好。如果你想用小账户大量操作，使用IBKR的投资组合保证金(Portfolio Margin)，这样你可以在很多股票上卖出大量深度虚值的看跌期权(Puts)。最大风险是你不知道自己在做什么，或者出现像今年早些时候全球突然加征20%关税导致市场崩盘这样的黑天鹅事件。我是从大量经验的角度说的，但新手可能会亏很多钱。IV规则同样适用。如果 $AMZN 通常每周波动+-5%，你可以卖出7% OTM的看跌期权，很可能每周获利。财报策略又是另一回事。解释起来很花时间，但也极其盈利。很多人持有$1M+资金，通过“更安全”的CSP或定投(DCA)每周被动赚取$10k。每季度财报周能赚大钱，除非股票像 $TTD 那样暴跌40%。但总体而言，如果你想复利增长财富+现有资产，学习这些很重要。 期权卖方策略是极佳的“房地产”（指卖出CCs或极深度虚值看跌期权），前提是你懂行且操作于 $IIBIT、$HOOD 等正规资产。否则风险巨大。总体上是给交易者很好的建议。只是我基于个人经验的一些想法和细微差别。
英文原文
So just to add to the discussion on learning option selling: 1. BROKERAGE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, NEVER USE $HOOD IF YOU HAVE A LARGE PORT. They claim it's free but it's probably one of the worst for option trading since they route your order to MMs and that's how they make money off of you by screwing your fills. Unless you're selling CC's CSP on Mag7/SPY with low spread, then use $IBKR for order execution since they give you the best fill even if you sell for the lowest price. It looks like you're losing a few dollars but .2 -.4 per contract on execution makes thousands of dollars of a difference. 2. If you're a smaller account, I'd recommend margin instead of 2x leveraged ETFs because of volatility decay. (you can use google to learn why you don't hold 2x leveraged ETFs for more than a short time). You have liquidation risks if you use margin but it's still better than leveraged ETFs. Think they pointed it out already in the post 3. Learn IV of stocks. Eg. Hood probably doesn't go up and down more than 4-6% a day normally. NBIS probably doesn't move more than 7% a day. TSM doesn't really move 4%+ a day. If you're selling CCs 4 days out like on NBIS, 6*4 for example, selling 24%+ OTM for like $130 if it's $107 is usually smart and profitable. If you sell CCs for like $110, you're asking for your stock to be called away and it's usually a strategy when you try and sell it. It's also important to learn catalysts. If there's an earnings coming up the original IV doesn't apply anymore since it could swing a lot higher or lower. Earnings CCs is completely different. 4. CSP is good. If you want to do a lot of this with a small account use IBKR portfolio margin, that way you can write a sell a ton of puts way OTM on a lot of stocks. Biggest risk is either you don't know what you're doing, or there's some black swan event like random 20% tarrifs on the world crashing the market earlier on in the year. Again I'm saying this from the perspective of tons of experience, but a newcomer might lose a lot of money. Same rule for IV applies. If AMZN is usually +-5% a week, you can sell PUTS 7% OTM and likely profit every week. Earnings again is a whole new strategy. it will probably take me a whole lot of time to explain this but it's extremely profitable too. A lot of people just sit on $1M+ and make like $10k a week passively doing "safer" CSPs or DCAing into positions. And earnings week every quarter is an insane amount of money. Unless a stock gets nuked like how TTD tanked 40%. But generally important to learn if you want to compound your wealth + existing assets. Option selling is great real estate (for selling CCs, or extremely OTM put selling) ONLY if you know what you're doing + do it on legitimate assets like IIBIT, HOOD. Otherwise there's tons of risks involved. Generally great advice overall for traders to learn. Just my thoughts and nuances to the lesson from personal experience.
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建议在反弹时进行再平衡和获利了结。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 在反弹行情中进行再平衡(Rebalancing)和获利了结(profit taking)是明智之举。
英文原文
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 Rebalancing and profit taking on rallys is smart
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建议直接加杠杆买入资产，除非控股公司有放贷等增值用途。
@4clout 如果你想的话，直接加杠杆买入实际资产即可。在我看来，除非控股公司(holding companies)能利用这些资产做点什么，比如通过放贷获利，否则持有它们毫无意义。
英文原文
@4clout Just buy the actual asset on leverage if you want, imo no point of doing holding companies unless they're doing something with it like making profits from lending.
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批评付费喊单骗局，强调真交易者靠市场获利而非粉丝。
我在 X 上看到这个真的快疯了。真正的交易者永远是从市场本身获利，而不是从他们的粉丝身上获利。你能得到的最好建议就是 X 上免费的独立研究(DD)，或者是那些随机发帖人分享关于 $NBIS / $IREN 的内容。而不是那些 🤡 搞“第69波”XYZ $BMNR 图表分析喊单 $20 的人。
英文原文
I'm actually losing my mind seeing this on X. Real traders will always make money off the markets. Not off their followers. The best advice you will ever get is free DD on X, or posts coming from randoms dropping $NBIS / $IREN. Not 🤡 Wave 69 XYZ $BMNR charting for $20. https://t.co/fk59TOa3yN
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建议新手投资ETF，避免个股风险，注重长期复利。
@Eddbagley2 是的，如果你是股票投资的新手，我推荐像 $QQQ 这样的 ETF。我有个刚接触股票的朋友买了 $FIG 的 IPO，结果几周就亏了60%。这比大家想的要难，所以还是让财富随时间复利增长吧。
英文原文
@Eddbagley2 Yeah I recommend ETFs like $QQQ if you completely new to stock investing. My friend who was new to stocks bought $FIG's IPO and lost 60% of their portfolio in a few weeks. It's harder than what people think, so just compound your net worth over time.
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作者强调需花1-2小时深入研究CIFR，暂不盲目逢低买入。
@__visionxry__ @pepemoonboy 哈哈，抱歉在我最近的帖子中“曝光”了你们，我只是在开玩笑。 我需要做更多关于 $CIFR 的研究，我对这家公司的了解还不够，现在还不能大喊“逢低买入”。 通常这需要我花上一两个小时去研究。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ @pepemoonboy lol sorry for outing you in my most recent post, i'm just joking I need to do more research into CIFR, I don't know enough about the company to be screaming buy the dip right now. Usually takes me an hour or two to look into it
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博主展示1000万高风险迷因组合，探讨极致收益与归零风险。
很多粉丝来自WSB（华尔街梗），没有风险过滤机制。如果我要用1000万美元为Reddit构建一个“迷因组合”以尝试最大化利润： 期权 $NBIS 3月20日 $130看涨期权 500万美元 AMZN 3月20日 $225看涨期权 200万美元 RUT 12月19日 $2400看涨期权 50万美元 2倍杠杆 $IREN 100万美元 $CIFR 100万美元 HIMS 50万美元 显然不推荐这样做，但如果我今天真的想尝试赚取1000%的收益，我会按当前价格这样操作。 如果你有1000万，好奇你会做什么风险博弈来换取豪宅还是温迪的垃圾桶。
英文原文
Lot of followers were from WSB with no risk-filter. If I had to build a meme-port for Reddit with $10m to try and maximize profit: Options $5M $NBIS Mar 20, $130 Call $2M AMZN Mar 20 $225 Call $500k RUT Dec 19 $2400 Call 2x Leverage $1M $IREN $1M $CIFR $500k HIMS Obviously not recommending this, but if I legitimately wanted to try and make 1000% I'd do this as of today's prices. If you had 10M, curious what risk-play you would do for a mansion vs. Wendys Dumpster.
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50万美金组合应集中高确信度持仓，风险等级不同需审慎。
@TheLongAJ 同样的逻辑适用于50万美元的投资组合，只需按比例增加高确信度股票的权重，并剔除如 $NVO 或 $BITF 等持仓以集中加仓你偏好的标的，如果你愿意承担更多成长/风险的话。 我只是说风险等级不同，如果我的朋友亏钱我会感觉非常糟糕。
英文原文
@TheLongAJ Same thesis applies with a $500k portfolio, just scale up weightings for conviction, and remove some like $NVO or $BITF to scale up the ones you like if you want to take on more growth/risk. I'm just saying risk level is different, I'd feel really bad if my friend lost money.
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建议通过调仓或持有现金对冲，指出当前小盘股行情源于降息宏观环境。
@MilesTa53993799 一个好的对冲策略是调整资产权重或将30%仓位变现为现金。目前小盘股/成长股占比高的唯一原因是由于三次降息带来的宏观环境。否则，权重会更倾向于 $UNH 和防御性公司。
英文原文
@MilesTa53993799 A good hedge is changing the weighting of the assets or sell 30% to cash. Only reason why there's so much small cap/growth right now is macro environment because of triple rate cut. Otherwise weighting would be more toward $UNH and defensive companies.
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分享构建 ETF 示例，指出小盘股可互换。
@MMerrino569447 这只是我为他人构建的推荐 ETF 的一个示例。如果你想的话，可以将像 $GRRR 这样的小盘股换成 $ABAT，其实并不重要。
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 This is just an example of a recommended ETF I'd build for someone else. You can switch a small cap like $GRRR for $ABAT if you wanted, doesn't really matter.
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强调投资小盘股时的风险管理，避免过度集中持仓。
@Dylanwith86 没问题，当我发布诸如将5万美元投入随机小盘股的内容时，我不希望大家误以为我会半仓操作，从而也将自己投资组合的过大比例分配给它们。风险管理真的非常重要。当然，当你有强烈信念时，可以调整权重。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 No problem, when I post stuff like throwing $50k into random small caps, I don't want people to think I'm half porting then allocate way too much of their portfolio into them too. Risk management is really important. Of course when you have conviction, change the weighting.
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正确解读期权流比关注对冲基金的恐慌抛售更重要。
@LibertadEterno 是的，对冲基金( Hedge Funds )总是恐慌性抛售。没错，如果你能正确解读，期权流( Option Flow )要重要得多。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Yeah hedge funds panic sell all the time. Yep, option flow is a lot more important if you can interpret it correctly.
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建议关注远期营收指标
@stone_maison_ 看看远期营收(Forward Revenue)
英文原文
@stone_maison_ Look at forward revenue
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投资核心在于发现市场错误定价，具体决策需自行研判。
没问题！不过，最大的获利机会在于你认为市场错误定价了某样东西，而你对此持有坚定的相反信念。比如对我来说，当 $UPWK 的市盈率(P/E)仅为7或更低时，市场就低估了它。由于财务报表可能非常复杂，我了解得不够多，无法给你确切答案，这需要你自己决定。
英文原文
No problem! The most money to be made though is if you think the market prices something wrong and you have conviction otherwise. Like for me market was underpricing $UPWK when it was a p/e of 7 or something low. I don't know enough to give you an answer since financials are probably really complicated, that's for you to decide.
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小盘股波动剧烈，建议仅用可承受亏损的资金投资。
@Dylanwith86 小盘股/微型股(Penny/small cap stocks)几天内波动30%，这种波动性是意料之中的！ 如果你只投入那些你完全能接受亏损的资金，压力会小很多。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Penny/small cap stocks swing 30% in days, volatility is expected! It's a lot less stressful if you only put money you're fine losing in them.
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三次降息带来十年一遇机遇，建议抢跑布局成长股与小盘股。
⚡为何2025年底前的三次降息是十年一遇的机遇 交易者必读： 25年来我们仅经历过3次此类事件：（2001年，2008-09年，2020年）。 历史显示： 1⃣ 随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因资金成本降低和债务缓解引发的风险偏好上升而飙升。 2⃣ 除了降息，11月至12月也是股市表现最强的时期之一。我们正接近这一时期，并伴随抢跑行情。 3⃣ 机构目前才刚刚调整以适应昨日美联储的意外举动，转向成长型资产和罗素2000指数（上涨2%以上）。 大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 你现在有一个罕见的机会去抢跑这股资金流，并从今天开始重新配置你的投资组合。
英文原文
⚡Why This Triple Rate Cut Near Year-End 2025 Is a ONCE-IN-A-DECADE OPPORTUNITY 100% read this if you're a trader: We've only had 3 events like this in 25 years: (2001, 2008–09, 2020). Here's what's history shows: 1⃣ With a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. 2⃣ On top of rate cuts, November–December is also one of the strongest periods for equities. We're approaching that period along with frontrunning. 3⃣ Institutions are only now adjusting to yesterday’s Fed surprise, rotating into growth assets and the Russell 2000 (up 2%+). Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. You now have a rare chance to frontrun that flow and reposition your portfolio starting today.