方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 668 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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作者因看好基本面在NBIS回调时加仓，并致力于普及机构投资方法论。
谢谢！我个人不太介意32%的回撤，因为我确信$NBIS仅凭基本面和现有合同就能恢复。所以我利用这段时间加仓。 但很多散户可能因为他们是追涨买入的而感到担忧。 所以我正尽力普及基本面以及做市商/机构用于构建投资组合规模的方法论，以便人们能做出更清晰的决策。
英文原文
Thanks! I personally don't mind a 32% drawdown as much since I'm confident $NBIS will recover purely based off of fundamentals and existing contracts. So I use this time to add more. But a lot of retail are probably worried because they bought off momentum. So I'm trying my best to spread awareness of fundamentals + tactics MMs/insitutions use to build up portfolio sizing so people can make clearer decisions.
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WSB是底部信号，长期方向准但短视，逆向操作需定力。
@AkaliOnYT 是的，/r/wallstreetbets 是 $NBIS 等股票的绝佳底部信号。他们对 $RKLB、$HOOD、$TSM 和 $MU 的长期方向判断往往正确，但注意力持续时间只有一个月。能说服自己采取相反操作是一项特殊技能。
英文原文
@AkaliOnYT Yeah /r/wallstreetbets is a great bottom signal for $NBIS and others. They’re often directionally right long term $RKLB, $HOOD, $TSM, and $MU but have 1 month long attention spans. It's a special skill to convince yourself to do the opposite.
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期权风险管理：1年期平衡杠杆与税优，2年期建议改用融资。
仅仅是为了更远期(OTM)的风险管理。 对于更长的到期时间，通常你希望最大化杠杆，同时最小化时间价值衰减(Theta decay)；此外，1年期节点也是长期资本利得税的甜蜜点。 例如，当你选择两年期时，权利金会变得有点高，此时你不如直接使用融资(Margin)。
英文原文
Just risk management for more OTM. For more out in time, usually you want to maximize leverage while minimizing theta decay + 1 year mark is sweet spot as well for long term capital gains tax. When you go two years out for example, premium gets a bit high and you might as well use margin.
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反思机构年底税务收割效应及RDDT买入逻辑
是的，我总是低估对冲基金/机构（Institutions）的税务收割（Tax Harvesting）效应。每当像 $ETOR 这样的股票下跌 2% 时，我会想“不可能再低了”，结果它确实更低了。这仅适用于年底（10月/11月/12月初）年内下跌的股票。是的，我在周五 $190 时买入 $RDDT，随后它反弹至 $195，鉴于大家都用它，它肯定能站稳。
英文原文
Yeah I always underestimate tax harvesting effects from hedge funds/institutions. Whenever a stock like $ETOR goes 2% lower, I think "it can't get any lower than this" then it does. This only applies end of year for Oct/Nov/early December for stocks down on the year. Yeah I bought $RDDT at $190 on Friday before it recovered to $195, it's definitely here to stay since everyone uses it lol.
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作者偏好低流通盘股票以博取高收益，但建议同时持有期权。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 今年我见过太多低流通盘(low float) IPO 涨幅超过 700% 的案例，从 $BULL 到 $NMAX 哈哈……或者去年 $DJT 到 $OKLO，但那些是 300% 的涨幅。 所以我个人更偏爱股票，仅仅是为了那 25% 的低流通盘拉升机会。但聪明人应该两者都持有。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot I’ve just seen so many lower float 700%+ IPOs this year from $BULL to $NMAX lol… or $DJT to $OKLO last year but those were 300% gains. So I prefer shares myself just for that 25% chance on a low float rally. But a smart person would have both.
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禁售期解禁及套利后定价合理，仅首月存在相对股价的定价错误。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 不过是的，在禁售期(lockups)解禁和套利(arbitrage)之后，它们的定价是正确的（忘了补充这一点）。仅在第一个月，相对于股价(share price)它们存在定价错误(mispriced)。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot But yeah after lockups + arbitrage they’re priced correctly (forgot to add this) Just in month 1 they’re mispriced relative to share price
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低流通盘IPO普通股爆发力强于认股权证，需权衡杠杆与稀释风险。
我刚才提到，由于流通盘（float）低，SPAC IPO 的普通股经常会出现 600%-1000% 的惊人回报，而认股权证（warrants）则无法享受这种收益。我们还看到过其他低流通盘 IPO 的类似走势，比如 Newsmax 因低流通盘上涨 500%。认股权证无法像普通股那样放大收益，因为它们在行权时会考虑稀释效应，且其他锁定期（lockups）结束后也会产生稀释。因此我有时会进行认股权证套利，且它们经常定价偏低。例如 Bull 的认股权证曾以每股 $16 交易，而股价为 $80；当时 Bull 股价 $29、认股权证 $13.5 时是可以对冲的。我需要进一步研究流通盘规模，但我的观点是：我宁愿错过认股权证的杠杆，也不愿错过低流通盘 IPO 的 500% 暴涨。我的意思是，500% 的收益可能优于长期持有的 200%，但如果流通盘充足，我也会考虑认股权证（这点我需要进一步研究）。
英文原文
I was just saying some hilarious 600%-1000% returns happen a lot on SPAC ipo’s with shares because of low float and you miss out on it with warrants vs. shares. We also saw some other low float moves with IPOs like Newsmax up 500% on low float. And warrants don’t scale with shares because they consider in dilution after warrants and other lockups can be exercised. Hence why I do warrant arbitrage sometimes and why they’re underpriced a lot of time. Like warrants on bull were trading at $16 per bull share while share price was $80 on bull. Hedging was available at the time when bull was $13.5 a warrant and shares were $29 I’ll need to do more research on float size but my point was in general I’d rather miss out on warrant leverage than a 500% pop on low float IPOs. And a 500% gain is probably better than 200% after a long time was my point, but if there’s a decent amount of float I’d do warrants too (I’ll need to look into this more)
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SPAC IPO中因禁售期限制，首月股票流动性低涨幅大，优于认股权证。
作为一个经常参与像 $BULL 这样的 SPAC IPO（特殊目的收购公司首次公开募股）的人，你会错过带有认股权证（Warrants）的 SPAC 股票带来的疯狂上涨（例如 600%+），因为你必须等待一个月后才能转换认股权证。 许多内部人士/禁售协议（Lockup Agreements）在认股权证可转换之前也无法出售或转换。（因此，前一到两周仅持有股票的回报率最高。 而且认股权证通常被低估，因为它们计入了稀释因素。例如 $BULL IPO 价格约为 $10，股价涨至 $80，而认股权证仍将其定价为 $16（$10 行权价 - $6/认股权证）。 因此，我通常在 SPAC IPO 中更偏好股票而非认股权证，因为第一个月内流通盘（Float）很小。
英文原文
As someone who frequently does SPAC IPOs like $BULL, you miss out on the crazy upside (eg. 600%+) on spac shares with warrants because you can’t convert warrants until one month later. A lot of insiders/lockup agreements can’t sell or convert as well until warrants can be converted too. (So first week or two has highest return with shares only. And warrants are typically underpriced since they factor in dilution. For example $BULL ipo’d around $10, rose to $80, while warrants were still pricing it at $16 $10 strike - $6/warrant. So I typically prefer shares over warrants on spac ipos, since it’s low float for a month.
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解释高确信度持仓与多股并发波段交易策略
批评得中肯。我认为一个重要的细微差别是，我的投资组合大部分是高确信度的（比特币、金融科技、新云厂商、$RKLB）。我只拿出较小比例用于主动波段交易+中期持有以等待重估（$SNAP、$ETOR），而这些正是我在市场持续下跌而非反弹时的亏损来源。这是我的个人交易风格，同时监控40多只股票，因为我不长期持有主动交易头寸，例如，如果我在$HIMS下跌14%时以50美元买入，随后上涨8%，我就会止盈。我发现如果同时操作大量股票，这种策略通常效果最好，否则等待单只股票（如Reddit）波段回归的时间会太长。我个人对此方法取得了成功，所以我会继续这样做。
英文原文
That’s fair criticism. I think an important nuance is majority of my portfolio is in high conviction (bitcoin, fintech, neoclouds, rklb). I take a smaller percentage just for active swing trading + medium term holds for re-rating (snap, etor) and these were my losses when it kept dipping instead of any recovering. It’s my personal trading style monitoring 40+ stocks at once since I don’t long term hold active trades, eg. If $HIMS went up 8% when I bought it at $50 on the 14% drop, I’d take profit. And it usually works the best if I do a ton of stocks concurrently, otherwise the waiting period would be too long just waiting for one stock swing back like Reddit. I’ve found success with it personally so I just keep doing it.
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警示短期期权风险，看好AMZN隐含波动率回归潜力。
这就是为什么人们不应该做短期期权！（我看到很多WSB帖子讨论$TSM的周权，为了财报）。方向是对的，但像这样的随机事件会抹平看涨期权。不过，我认为$AMZN看起来最具吸引力，主要是因为隐含波动率（IV）回归的潜力，我们看看市场能否保持开放。
英文原文
This is why people shouldn’t do short term options! (I saw a lot of WSB posts about $TSM weeklies for earnings). It’s correct directionally but random events like this happen to wipe out calls. But yeah I think $AMZN looks the most tempting just cause of IV return potential, we’ll see what holds market open.
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建议无视噪音，关注基本面，利用散户恐慌期积累AI算力龙头筹码。
谢谢，只是目前 Mag7 对 AI 算力（数据中心、电力）的需求出现了绝对激增，而许多此类公司的机构持股比例极低（例如 $NBIS 为 38%，而通常理想区间为 60-75%）。散户可能因错误原因（例如看到 $AMSL 建厂放缓就抛售，尽管 AMSL 正在扩建晶圆厂，却无视 $TSM 今日公布的远期营收/利润率激增）或受特定地区银行冲击影响，将 $MSFT 或 $GOOGL 的未来基础设施资产恐慌性抛售给机构。如果普通人不理解宏观，这类噪音有助于对冲基金在不大幅推高价格的情况下积累筹码。最好关注基本面+增长是否完好（确实完好，且我们此前低估了需求），并忽略如 ORCL 新闻或短期宏观冲击等看空报道。
英文原文
Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%). Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much. It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.
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通过分仓隔离长期持仓与短线交易，避免冲动操作。
@ManglaniAkshay @StockMarketNerd 不，我只是在不同的券商开设不同的账户，这样我就不会受诱惑去对我长期持有的头寸进行波段交易(swing trade)。
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @StockMarketNerd nah I just open different accounts across brokerages so I'm not tempted to swing trade my long term holdings.
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解释IPO后30天禁售期及低流通盘导致的股价波动现象。
@itsthesquonky 关于股票，IPO后30天内不能赎回认股权证(warrants)，且认股权证定价通常低于正股（预期更多流通盘(float)会导致股价下跌）。 低流通盘股票在前30天会出现一些疯狂现象，比如Webull从$10涨到$82。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky Shares, you can't redeem warrants for 30 days after IPO and warrants get priced under shares a lot of times (with the expectation of more float causing price drops) Some crazy things happen in the first 30 days with low float like Webull going up from $10 to $82.
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不建议重仓高风险SPAC IPO，但可少量配置以博取风险收益。
@foogleman1234 是的，我确实不建议将投资组合的很大一部分配置给高风险的特殊目的收购公司(Special Purpose Acquisition Company, SPAC)首次公开募股(IPO)。 但少量配置也无妨，因为风险收益比(Risk-Reward)确实存在。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 Yeah I wouldn't recommend allocating large percentage of portfolios to a high-risk SPAC IPO for sure. But a tiny allocation doesn't hurt since risk-reward is definitely there.
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博主分享利用AI辅助研究，并对比不同板块的风险收益特征。
非常赞同，关键矿物确实很复杂。当我买入像 $MP 这类标的时，我通常会使用 ChatGPT 深度研究来帮助我更好地理解风险收益权衡。但当我买入随机的锂电池小盘股并发帖讨论时，我承认我缺乏领域知识。但就像你关于 $IREN 的 Neocloud 帖子一样，通常像 AI 基础设施建设（如 $CRWV）或量子计算（如 $IONQ）这样热门的领域会带动整个板块上涨。所以风险收益有时是值得的，但我不建议效仿我的做法，也不会对此投入过多的投资组合权重。而在数据中心基础设施建设等方面，风险收益比要好得多，因为只要有执行力，几乎可以确定会有收入，且有 Mag7 公司作为后盾。
英文原文
Heavily agree, critical minerals are really complex. When I buy stuff like $MP I usually use ChatGPT deep research to help me understand risk-reward tradeoffs better. But when I buy random lithium battery small caps and post about it I admit I don’t have domain knowledge. But like your Neocloud post about $IREN usually a popular domain like AI buildout with $CRWV or something like Quantum with $IONQ will uplift an entire sector anyway. So risk-reward is sometimes worth it but I wouldn’t follow what I do and wouldn’t put much portfolio weighting into it either. And it’s a much better risk-reward on stuff like data center buildout since it’s almost for sure revenue based on execution with mag7 backstopping companies.
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建议期权交易避免短期到期合约，12月后合约更稳妥。
@LibertadEterno 12月/1月的期权可能没问题，11月的我不太确定……如果你做期权交易，我不太推荐短期到期的合约。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Dec/Jan options are likely fine, not sure about November... Don't really recommend short term expires if you're doing options.
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建议避免在流动性低的时段交易WLAC。
@capybara_830 哦，我已经加仓了，这只是最初的建仓。我不建议在盘后、隔夜或盘前购买像 $WLAC 这样的股票，因为流动性低且买卖价差大。
英文原文
@capybara_830 Oh I already added more, this was just the initial buy. I don't recommend buying stuff like $WLAC after hours, overnight, or premarket due to low liquidity and high spread.
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管理他人组合时采用中长期策略并每月动态调整。
@Shehryr_Mdassir 如果我要管理别人的投资组合，这更多是中长期的策略，但我会根据新信息每月进行调整。
英文原文
@Shehryr_Mdassir Oh this is more mid-long term if I were to manage someone else's portfolio, but I would adjust it monthly based on new information.
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利用高隐含波动率下的备兑看涨期权降低持仓成本。
@soulbiri1 即使在这种回调中，如果随机出现波动率(VIX)飙升，由于隐含波动率(IV)极高，你可以通过备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)大幅降低平均成本。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 You can lower cost average a lot even on this dip with covered calls if there’s a random V since IV is extremely high.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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根据期权策略风险不同，建议调整其在投资组合中的配置比例。
@SimionAdvisory @rocket5010 说实话，这取决于具体情况。如果你像南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）那样，使用深度实值（Deep ITM）期权搭配长期期权（LEAPS）来获取略高的杠杆且无需支付保证金利息，那么这部分可以占据你投资组合的大多数。但如果你做的是风险较高的虚值（OTM）期权且3个月内到期，那么比例可能不会超过10-20%。
英文原文
@SimionAdvisory @rocket5010 Honestly depends. If you're doing way ITM options with leaps like Nancy Pelosi for slightly higher leverage without margin interest, it can be majority of your port. If you're doing risky OTM options that expire in 3 months, then probably wouldn't do more than 10-20%.
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博主分享其关于期权策略及催化剂交易的研究笔记索引。
@JakeWoods143114 我通常尝试在不同的帖子中撰写我学到的不同内容，例如 在波段交易中卖出看跌期权（Writing puts on swing trades） https://t.co/F2jdDsk3Sf 备兑看涨期权（Covered Calls） https://t.co/GIvzRgZtHb 催化剂+突破（Catalysts + Breakouts） https://t.co/ozo2YzL5vy
英文原文
@JakeWoods143114 I usually try and write different things I've learned in different posts like Writing puts on swing trades https://t.co/F2jdDsk3Sf Covered Calls https://t.co/GIvzRgZtHb Catalysts + Breakotus https://t.co/ozo2YzL5vy
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博主说明自身在AI、半导体及加密领域的专业背景，明确能力圈范围。
@MqwantyMqwanty 金融科技(Fintech)、加密货币(Crypto)、人工智能(AI)。 我在加密货币、半导体以及人工智能领域（例如软件、科技等相关领域）拥有一些专利/论文，因此我对这些领域有足够的了解，可以给出方向性的观点。 至于生物技术、建筑、房地产、农业等之外的领域，我就不太了解了。
英文原文
@MqwantyMqwanty Fintech, Crypto, AI. I have some patents/papers in crypto, semiconductors, + AI space so related areas (eg. software, tech) I know enough to give directional opinions. Stuff outside like biotech, construction, real estate, agriculture, etc. I wouldn't know well.
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不盲从权威，需详查目标价背后的逻辑与计算。
@dubiousnoob @tr90605549 我不是那种盲目追随领域权威的人，我想了解更多关于思维过程+数值计算的细节，以便对目标价格(price targets)感到安心。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob @tr90605549 I’m not the type of person to blindly follow domain authority, I’d like to learn more details on the thought process + numerical calculations to have a peace of mind about price targets
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作者分享交易策略：低IV或暴跌时做期权，短线多股现货交易。
@DappSpecialist 我基本上什么都做，但主要只在隐含波动率(IV) <32 或市场暴跌时才接触期权。通常我会在短时间内同时交易多只股票的现货，而不是持有1年以上。
英文原文
@DappSpecialist I kind of do everything, but mainly touch options only if IV <32 or on doom drops. Normally I do shares on many different stocks at once in short timeframes rather than holding 1Y+.
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作者表示将持有，认为走势类似2021年，预计降息后市场将垂直上涨。
不，我会持有，但发帖只是半开玩笑，因为不可能正确择时。不过与2021年相比确实非常诡异，因为走势模式看起来很相似。例如，我们又有两次跟随季节性的降息，所以我预计未来几个月会出现垂直上涨。显然还有很多其他因素起作用，但即使历史不会重演，也常常押韵。
英文原文
Nope, I'm holding, but just half-joking with the post because it's impossible to time the market correctly. It's just very uncanny to 2021 though because pattern looks similar. Eg. we have another 2x rate cuts following seasonality so I'd expect a vertical line up for the next few months. Obviously there's a lot more that comes into play but history does rhyme a lot even if it doesn't repeat.
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建议用ARKK作为市场顶部指标，应对AI股新高恐慌。
人们正对 $OKLO、$RGTI 等触及历史新高及泡沫感到恐慌。 半开玩笑地说，如果你想择时顶部： Cathie Wood 的 ARKK 实际上是一个很好的指标。（~2026年2月） 当一切都在🔼上涨时，它就像矿井里的金丝雀（canary in the coal mine）。 https://t.co/auTXknICGd
英文原文
People are panicking about markets from $OKLO, $RGTI, etc. hitting all time highs and bubbles. Half joking but if you you want to time the top: Cathie Wood's ARKK is actually a good indicator. (~Feb 2026) It's a great canary in the coal mine when everything goes 🔼 https://t.co/auTXknICGd
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批评泛泛的期权卖方建议，强调具体行权价实例的重要性。
是的，那些售卖订阅服务的“期权卖方”账号也是如此。他们只是发布“当隐含波动率(IV)高时卖出期权”这类内容，这让人直翻白眼，因为其中有很多细微差别。他们根本不发布具体的行权价。希望我能通过实例展示大家在洞察层面应该阅读什么，比如当我给出带有具体行权价的周权看跌期权卖出示例时，那样才能真正提供帮助。
英文原文
Yeah same goes for all those “option seller” accounts selling subscriptions. They just post “sell options when IV is high” and it’s just a huge eye roll since there’s so much nuance. They don’t post strikes or anything. Hope I can show by example what people should be reading through insight wise that might actually help like when I give examples of selling weekly puts with specific strikes.
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批评热门博主为流量散布有害信息，倡导透明披露基本面与催化剂的研究方法。
周六吐槽，因为最热门的 X 账号为了追求互动量和订阅费，正在积极伤害散户。 那些在 X 上卖 10 美元课程的人，只为了互动量，随便挑像 $RGTI 这种零营收却涨了 4000% 的股票。 然后在 $JOBY、$OPEN、IONQ 等股票暴涨 1000%+ 后，再事后诸葛亮地加上它们，声称因为“X 的未来”所以是必持牛股。 这些内容毫无实质意义，只是有害信息。 如果人们盲目跟随并为此支付 10 美元，你的投资组合会被炸毁。 当我做股票列表时，我会透明地写下： 对股票催化剂或基本面变化的简要解释。 人们可以持不同意见，但这正是让讨论变得富有成效的原因。人们可以根据新信息做出自己的判断。 从实际交易者的角度来看，许多最热门的 X 账号完全是胡说八道。 看到新手盲目上当，不仅损失了自己的钱，还要支付订阅费，这让人心痛。
英文原文
Saturday Rant because the most popular X accounts are actively harming retail for engagement and subscriptions. The people who sell $10 courses on X just pick anything like $RGTI that went up 4000% off 0 revenue for engagement. Then add $JOBY, $OPEN, IONQ, etc. retroactively after a 1000%+ rise and that they're a top stock to own because "Future of X". There's nothing material and it's just harmful information. if people follow them blindly and pay $10 for this, your portfolio will get nuked. When I do stock lists, I write down transparently: A light explanation of catalysts or fundamental changes to a stock. People can disagree, but that's what makes discussions productive. People can make their own judgement from new information. So many of the most popular X accounts are just complete BS from an actual trader's perspective. It hurts to see newcomers blindly fall for this and end up losing their own money on top of paying for subscriptions too.
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市值不等于价值，流动性才是关键，开放市场测试会导致价格暴跌。
@yacineMTB 你可以用1美元买入某公司的X股，从而使其估值达到1万亿美元。流动性(liquidity)更为重要。你会从那些通过持有99%供应量来炒作加密货币的人身上学到这一点。市值(market cap)不等于价值(value)，如果他们在开放市场(open market)中测试，价格可能会暴跌。
英文原文
@yacineMTB You can buy X share for $1 of a company and make it a 1 Trillion valuation. Liquidity matters more. You learn this with people inflating crypto by holding 99% of the supply. Market cap ≠ value, and it would probably dump if they tested it in an open market.