方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 668 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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作者打破只买正股规则，在特定黑天鹅或底部信号下转向期权策略。
我在这里打破了自己关于只买正股而非看涨期权(call)的经验法则——32%的隐含波动率(IV)股票，但通常如果发生黑天鹅事件导致无关紧要的下跌，例如 $IREN 因摩根大通(JPM)糟糕的目标价下跌14%。或者 $CIFR 下跌17%后仅因 $GOOGL 的支撑而下跌5%，这时我会转向看涨期权。通常如果我认为触底了，或者认为像 $TSM $AMZN 这样的股票会在几个月内上涨，且我在定投(DCA)，且IV没有偏离32%太多且不至于糟糕，我会考虑使用期权。当然也有例外，比如 $IBIT 高IV时跳入周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，但那是另一种策略。不过，抄底时机极难把握。
英文原文
I broke my own rule of thumb here about shares only vs. call -> 32% IV stock but usually if something black swans off something immaterial eg. $IREN 14% drop off JPM bs price target. Or $CIFR 17% drop into 5% drop off $GOOGL backstopping it, then I switch to calls. Usually if I think it's a bottom or if I think a stock would go up like $TSM $AMZN over a few months and I'm DCA and IV isn't way off 32% and horrendous I'd consider it. There's exceptions obviously like $IBIT with higher IV leaps into weekly covered calls but that's another strategy. Bottom timing is extremely hard though
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分享期权卖方策略经验：选对券商、小户用保证金、精通IV与财报风险。
补充一下关于学习期权卖方策略的讨论： 1. 券商选择极其重要，大资金账户切勿使用 $HOOD。他们声称免费，但可能是期权交易中最差的券商，因为他们将订单路由给做市商(MMs)，并通过糟糕的成交执行来赚取你的钱。除非你在Mag7或SPY上卖出低点差的现金担保看涨期权(Cash-Secured Calls, CCs)或现金担保看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts, CSPs)，否则请使用 $IBKR 进行订单执行，即使你以最低价格卖出，他们也能提供最好的成交。看似损失几美元，但每份合约0.2-0.4美元的执行差异能带来数千美元的差别。 2. 如果是小账户，我建议用保证金(Margin)代替2倍杠杆ETF，因为后者存在波动率衰减(Volatility Decay)。（你可以谷歌搜索为什么不要长期持有2倍杠杆ETF）。使用保证金有清算风险，但仍优于杠杆ETF。帖子中应该已经提到过这一点。 3. 学习股票的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)。例如，$HOOD 通常每天波动不超过4-6%。$NBIS 通常每天波动不超过7%。$TSM 很少出现单日4%以上的波动。如果你在 $NBIS 上卖出4天到期的CCs，例如6*4，卖出约$130的24%+虚值(Out-of-The-Money, OTM)期权（当前股价$107）通常是明智且盈利的。如果你卖出约$110的CCs，你是在要求股票被行权(Call Away)，这通常是你试图卖出股票时的策略。了解催化剂(Catalysts)也很重要。如果有财报(Earnings)发布，原始IV不再适用，因为股价可能大幅波动。财报期间的CCs策略完全不同。 4. CSP策略很好。如果你想用小账户大量操作，使用IBKR的投资组合保证金(Portfolio Margin)，这样你可以在很多股票上卖出大量深度虚值的看跌期权(Puts)。最大风险是你不知道自己在做什么，或者出现像今年早些时候全球突然加征20%关税导致市场崩盘这样的黑天鹅事件。我是从大量经验的角度说的，但新手可能会亏很多钱。IV规则同样适用。如果 $AMZN 通常每周波动+-5%，你可以卖出7% OTM的看跌期权，很可能每周获利。财报策略又是另一回事。解释起来很花时间，但也极其盈利。很多人持有$1M+资金，通过“更安全”的CSP或定投(DCA)每周被动赚取$10k。每季度财报周能赚大钱，除非股票像 $TTD 那样暴跌40%。但总体而言，如果你想复利增长财富+现有资产，学习这些很重要。 期权卖方策略是极佳的“房地产”（指卖出CCs或极深度虚值看跌期权），前提是你懂行且操作于 $IIBIT、$HOOD 等正规资产。否则风险巨大。总体上是给交易者很好的建议。只是我基于个人经验的一些想法和细微差别。
英文原文
So just to add to the discussion on learning option selling: 1. BROKERAGE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, NEVER USE $HOOD IF YOU HAVE A LARGE PORT. They claim it's free but it's probably one of the worst for option trading since they route your order to MMs and that's how they make money off of you by screwing your fills. Unless you're selling CC's CSP on Mag7/SPY with low spread, then use $IBKR for order execution since they give you the best fill even if you sell for the lowest price. It looks like you're losing a few dollars but .2 -.4 per contract on execution makes thousands of dollars of a difference. 2. If you're a smaller account, I'd recommend margin instead of 2x leveraged ETFs because of volatility decay. (you can use google to learn why you don't hold 2x leveraged ETFs for more than a short time). You have liquidation risks if you use margin but it's still better than leveraged ETFs. Think they pointed it out already in the post 3. Learn IV of stocks. Eg. Hood probably doesn't go up and down more than 4-6% a day normally. NBIS probably doesn't move more than 7% a day. TSM doesn't really move 4%+ a day. If you're selling CCs 4 days out like on NBIS, 6*4 for example, selling 24%+ OTM for like $130 if it's $107 is usually smart and profitable. If you sell CCs for like $110, you're asking for your stock to be called away and it's usually a strategy when you try and sell it. It's also important to learn catalysts. If there's an earnings coming up the original IV doesn't apply anymore since it could swing a lot higher or lower. Earnings CCs is completely different. 4. CSP is good. If you want to do a lot of this with a small account use IBKR portfolio margin, that way you can write a sell a ton of puts way OTM on a lot of stocks. Biggest risk is either you don't know what you're doing, or there's some black swan event like random 20% tarrifs on the world crashing the market earlier on in the year. Again I'm saying this from the perspective of tons of experience, but a newcomer might lose a lot of money. Same rule for IV applies. If AMZN is usually +-5% a week, you can sell PUTS 7% OTM and likely profit every week. Earnings again is a whole new strategy. it will probably take me a whole lot of time to explain this but it's extremely profitable too. A lot of people just sit on $1M+ and make like $10k a week passively doing "safer" CSPs or DCAing into positions. And earnings week every quarter is an insane amount of money. Unless a stock gets nuked like how TTD tanked 40%. But generally important to learn if you want to compound your wealth + existing assets. Option selling is great real estate (for selling CCs, or extremely OTM put selling) ONLY if you know what you're doing + do it on legitimate assets like IIBIT, HOOD. Otherwise there's tons of risks involved. Generally great advice overall for traders to learn. Just my thoughts and nuances to the lesson from personal experience.
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建议在反弹时进行再平衡和获利了结。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 在反弹行情中进行再平衡(Rebalancing)和获利了结(profit taking)是明智之举。
英文原文
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 Rebalancing and profit taking on rallys is smart
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建议直接加杠杆买入资产，除非控股公司有放贷等增值用途。
@4clout 如果你想的话，直接加杠杆买入实际资产即可。在我看来，除非控股公司(holding companies)能利用这些资产做点什么，比如通过放贷获利，否则持有它们毫无意义。
英文原文
@4clout Just buy the actual asset on leverage if you want, imo no point of doing holding companies unless they're doing something with it like making profits from lending.
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批评付费喊单骗局，强调真交易者靠市场获利而非粉丝。
我在 X 上看到这个真的快疯了。真正的交易者永远是从市场本身获利，而不是从他们的粉丝身上获利。你能得到的最好建议就是 X 上免费的独立研究(DD)，或者是那些随机发帖人分享关于 $NBIS / $IREN 的内容。而不是那些 🤡 搞“第69波”XYZ $BMNR 图表分析喊单 $20 的人。
英文原文
I'm actually losing my mind seeing this on X. Real traders will always make money off the markets. Not off their followers. The best advice you will ever get is free DD on X, or posts coming from randoms dropping $NBIS / $IREN. Not 🤡 Wave 69 XYZ $BMNR charting for $20. https://t.co/fk59TOa3yN
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建议新手投资ETF，避免个股风险，注重长期复利。
@Eddbagley2 是的，如果你是股票投资的新手，我推荐像 $QQQ 这样的 ETF。我有个刚接触股票的朋友买了 $FIG 的 IPO，结果几周就亏了60%。这比大家想的要难，所以还是让财富随时间复利增长吧。
英文原文
@Eddbagley2 Yeah I recommend ETFs like $QQQ if you completely new to stock investing. My friend who was new to stocks bought $FIG's IPO and lost 60% of their portfolio in a few weeks. It's harder than what people think, so just compound your net worth over time.
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作者强调需花1-2小时深入研究CIFR，暂不盲目逢低买入。
@__visionxry__ @pepemoonboy 哈哈，抱歉在我最近的帖子中“曝光”了你们，我只是在开玩笑。 我需要做更多关于 $CIFR 的研究，我对这家公司的了解还不够，现在还不能大喊“逢低买入”。 通常这需要我花上一两个小时去研究。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ @pepemoonboy lol sorry for outing you in my most recent post, i'm just joking I need to do more research into CIFR, I don't know enough about the company to be screaming buy the dip right now. Usually takes me an hour or two to look into it
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博主展示1000万高风险迷因组合，探讨极致收益与归零风险。
很多粉丝来自WSB（华尔街梗），没有风险过滤机制。如果我要用1000万美元为Reddit构建一个“迷因组合”以尝试最大化利润： 期权 $NBIS 3月20日 $130看涨期权 500万美元 AMZN 3月20日 $225看涨期权 200万美元 RUT 12月19日 $2400看涨期权 50万美元 2倍杠杆 $IREN 100万美元 $CIFR 100万美元 HIMS 50万美元 显然不推荐这样做，但如果我今天真的想尝试赚取1000%的收益，我会按当前价格这样操作。 如果你有1000万，好奇你会做什么风险博弈来换取豪宅还是温迪的垃圾桶。
英文原文
Lot of followers were from WSB with no risk-filter. If I had to build a meme-port for Reddit with $10m to try and maximize profit: Options $5M $NBIS Mar 20, $130 Call $2M AMZN Mar 20 $225 Call $500k RUT Dec 19 $2400 Call 2x Leverage $1M $IREN $1M $CIFR $500k HIMS Obviously not recommending this, but if I legitimately wanted to try and make 1000% I'd do this as of today's prices. If you had 10M, curious what risk-play you would do for a mansion vs. Wendys Dumpster.
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50万美金组合应集中高确信度持仓，风险等级不同需审慎。
@TheLongAJ 同样的逻辑适用于50万美元的投资组合，只需按比例增加高确信度股票的权重，并剔除如 $NVO 或 $BITF 等持仓以集中加仓你偏好的标的，如果你愿意承担更多成长/风险的话。 我只是说风险等级不同，如果我的朋友亏钱我会感觉非常糟糕。
英文原文
@TheLongAJ Same thesis applies with a $500k portfolio, just scale up weightings for conviction, and remove some like $NVO or $BITF to scale up the ones you like if you want to take on more growth/risk. I'm just saying risk level is different, I'd feel really bad if my friend lost money.
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建议通过调仓或持有现金对冲，指出当前小盘股行情源于降息宏观环境。
@MilesTa53993799 一个好的对冲策略是调整资产权重或将30%仓位变现为现金。目前小盘股/成长股占比高的唯一原因是由于三次降息带来的宏观环境。否则，权重会更倾向于 $UNH 和防御性公司。
英文原文
@MilesTa53993799 A good hedge is changing the weighting of the assets or sell 30% to cash. Only reason why there's so much small cap/growth right now is macro environment because of triple rate cut. Otherwise weighting would be more toward $UNH and defensive companies.
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分享构建 ETF 示例，指出小盘股可互换。
@MMerrino569447 这只是我为他人构建的推荐 ETF 的一个示例。如果你想的话，可以将像 $GRRR 这样的小盘股换成 $ABAT，其实并不重要。
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 This is just an example of a recommended ETF I'd build for someone else. You can switch a small cap like $GRRR for $ABAT if you wanted, doesn't really matter.
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强调投资小盘股时的风险管理，避免过度集中持仓。
@Dylanwith86 没问题，当我发布诸如将5万美元投入随机小盘股的内容时，我不希望大家误以为我会半仓操作，从而也将自己投资组合的过大比例分配给它们。风险管理真的非常重要。当然，当你有强烈信念时，可以调整权重。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 No problem, when I post stuff like throwing $50k into random small caps, I don't want people to think I'm half porting then allocate way too much of their portfolio into them too. Risk management is really important. Of course when you have conviction, change the weighting.
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正确解读期权流比关注对冲基金的恐慌抛售更重要。
@LibertadEterno 是的，对冲基金( Hedge Funds )总是恐慌性抛售。没错，如果你能正确解读，期权流( Option Flow )要重要得多。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Yeah hedge funds panic sell all the time. Yep, option flow is a lot more important if you can interpret it correctly.
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建议关注远期营收指标
@stone_maison_ 看看远期营收(Forward Revenue)
英文原文
@stone_maison_ Look at forward revenue
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投资核心在于发现市场错误定价，具体决策需自行研判。
没问题！不过，最大的获利机会在于你认为市场错误定价了某样东西，而你对此持有坚定的相反信念。比如对我来说，当 $UPWK 的市盈率(P/E)仅为7或更低时，市场就低估了它。由于财务报表可能非常复杂，我了解得不够多，无法给你确切答案，这需要你自己决定。
英文原文
No problem! The most money to be made though is if you think the market prices something wrong and you have conviction otherwise. Like for me market was underpricing $UPWK when it was a p/e of 7 or something low. I don't know enough to give you an answer since financials are probably really complicated, that's for you to decide.
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小盘股波动剧烈，建议仅用可承受亏损的资金投资。
@Dylanwith86 小盘股/微型股(Penny/small cap stocks)几天内波动30%，这种波动性是意料之中的！ 如果你只投入那些你完全能接受亏损的资金，压力会小很多。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Penny/small cap stocks swing 30% in days, volatility is expected! It's a lot less stressful if you only put money you're fine losing in them.
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三次降息带来十年一遇机遇，建议抢跑布局成长股与小盘股。
⚡为何2025年底前的三次降息是十年一遇的机遇 交易者必读： 25年来我们仅经历过3次此类事件：（2001年，2008-09年，2020年）。 历史显示： 1⃣ 随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因资金成本降低和债务缓解引发的风险偏好上升而飙升。 2⃣ 除了降息，11月至12月也是股市表现最强的时期之一。我们正接近这一时期，并伴随抢跑行情。 3⃣ 机构目前才刚刚调整以适应昨日美联储的意外举动，转向成长型资产和罗素2000指数（上涨2%以上）。 大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 你现在有一个罕见的机会去抢跑这股资金流，并从今天开始重新配置你的投资组合。
英文原文
⚡Why This Triple Rate Cut Near Year-End 2025 Is a ONCE-IN-A-DECADE OPPORTUNITY 100% read this if you're a trader: We've only had 3 events like this in 25 years: (2001, 2008–09, 2020). Here's what's history shows: 1⃣ With a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. 2⃣ On top of rate cuts, November–December is also one of the strongest periods for equities. We're approaching that period along with frontrunning. 3⃣ Institutions are only now adjusting to yesterday’s Fed surprise, rotating into growth assets and the Russell 2000 (up 2%+). Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. You now have a rare chance to frontrun that flow and reposition your portfolio starting today.
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股价下跌必有因，如宏观风险或业绩利空，非无端波动。
@alc2022 仅仅因为你知识不足且无法解释，并不意味着股价下跌是“毫无理由”的。总是有原因的，比如宏观风险、空头持仓、期权流向、定价错误、业绩利空以及未来增长风险。
英文原文
@alc2022 Just because you don't know enough and can't explain it doesn't mean things go down "For no reason". There's always a reason like macro risk, short interest, option flows, mispricing, negative earnings, and forward growth risk.
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批评某博主不懂前沿股逻辑，警告勿做空无限风险股票。
他不傻，只是极度专注于生物科技领域，你应该关注他这方面的见解，而非其他领域。听了一些视频后，感觉他并不理解像 $RKLB 这样的前沿股票，且在做空“邪教式”股票方面给出了糟糕的建议。例如，对于 $RKLB，他未能理解中等载荷提升+Starlink/Flatlites服务潜力带来的回报潜力，而这些并未纳入他唯一关心的典型远期营收预测中。像 $QBTS 这类股票很烂，我只是说，做空具有无限亏损风险的“邪教式”股票是个极其愚蠢的主意。
英文原文
He's not dumb, he's just insanely specialized in biotech and that's what you should pay attention to him for, just not other things outside. It's just after listening to some videos, it doesn't seem he understands frontier stocks like $RKLB and gives bad advice on shorting cult stocks. For example, with $RKLB he doesn't quite get the return potential from medium lift payloads + service potential from Starlink/flatlites, which isn't baked into typical forward rev typical that he only cares about. Stuff like $QBTS is sht, I'm just saying that it's a really stupid idea shorting cult-like stocks with infinite losses.
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博主坚持集中持仓高确信度标的，不看好特斯拉基本面。
@babyfolio 我并没有很分散的投资组合，我专注于几只基本面优秀且具备潜力的高确信度股票，并灵活调整仓位。 我在 $TSLA 身上看不到这些特质 lol，不过各有所好吧。
英文原文
@babyfolio I don’t really have a wide portfolio, I focus on a few high convictions stocks with great fundamentals + potential and shift around. I don’t see that with $TSLA lol but to each their own
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分析$HIMS突破交易逻辑，指出抢跑宏观预期收益最大。
是的，宏观因素是其中很大的一个方面。当我做 $HIMS 的突破交易时，我考虑了抢跑降息作为对42%做空比例(SI)的买入压力，以及PPI数据+惊喜睾酮产品发布，当时股价低于$50，从而创造了突破+逼空(short squeeze)。 由于降息几乎确定，股票已经被抢跑。但大量未平仓合约(open interest)将在19日到期。这通常有助于许多散户基于“九月抛售(Sell in September)”进行看空押注，但做市商(MMs)可能会总是清洗看涨期权(calls)。 我不知道当天的方向，所以我承担的风险较小，但抢跑(frontrunning)赚得最多。
英文原文
Yeah macro is large aspect of it. When I do breakouts like for $HIMS I considered front running rate cut as buying pressure for the 42% SI as well as PPI data + surprise testosterone product release when it was back sub $50 to create a breakout + short squeeze. Stocks already got frontran since cuts at almost certain. But much open interest expiring 19th. Helps a lot of retail bet bearish from “Sell in September” usually, but MMs might always flush calls. I don’t know the direction day of so im taking less risk but front running made the most money.
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揭露X博主用伪技术分析骗课，指出其忽略基本面与事后归谬。
X 上许多热门用户是试图出售订阅的骗子，其中就包括这位。 原因如下： 技术分析(TA) 对某些公司几乎毫无意义。$BMNR 是一家持有 $ETH 的公司。忽略 $ETH 而试图对 $BMNR 进行图表分析只会让人发笑。 从根本上说，$BMNR 追踪 $ETH，其价格约为净资产值(NAV) 的 1.3 倍。若 $BMNR 要上涨 100%，$ETH 需要上涨 82%。 Polymarket 预测 $ETH 在年底前（而非一个月内）达到 8000 美元的概率仅为 16%。 除非出现低浮盘盘前买入，或者在 $ETH 反弹后 NAV 脱钩，否则很难实现。 至于他们关于 $NBIS 的说法，其股价从 40 美元涨至 110 美元以上，是因为获得了 $MSFT 意外宣布的 170 亿美元合同，而不是因为有人在图表上画线声称技术分析(TA) 预测到了突破。 在分析突破时，这正是你不应该做的。 他们在每只股票上发布糟糕的预测，然后吹嘘事后诸葛亮说猜对了一两只，以此推销课程。
英文原文
Many popular users on X are scammers who try and sell subscriptions and this is one of them. Here’s why: TA barely means anything for some companies. $BMNR is an $ETH holding company. Ignoring $ETH and trying to chart $BMNR makes anyone laugh. Fundamentally $BMNR tracks $ETH and it’s roughly 1.3x NAV. For $BMNR to go up 100%, ETH would need to go up 82%. Polymarket predicts a 16% chance $ETH hits $8K by end of year, not 1 month. Either there would need to be a low float buy premarket or NAV depegging after an $ETH rally. As for their $NBIS claim, it went from $40 to $110+ from an unexpected 17 billion dollar $MSFT contract, not because anyone drew lines on a chart saying the TA predicted a breakout. When you analyze breakouts, this is exactly what NOT to do. They post crappy predictions on every stock then brag hindsight that they got one or two right to sell courses.
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建议美联储会议前降险，利用降息预期抢跑或逢低买入。
我不会在美联储会议当天进行交易。我个人会在会议前降低风险，并保留高确信度的股票，因为我没有明确的答案。更好的做法是将抢跑交易作为催化剂，因为降息几乎确定，这就是我之前的做法，例如 https://t.co/5pzt65jDUc。不过我猜测，做市商(MM)可能会利用降息作为借口，清洗掉19日到期的巨额未平仓合约。如果他们这样做，将是一个良好的买入机会；但如果你需要对冲，VIX看涨期权始终是一个不错的选择，因为目前它相当低。当然我也可能错了，因为由于美元印钞+特朗普削减企业税，人们预计股票会处于这些水平甚至更高，尽管已经有很多针对降息的抢跑交易，我们仍在不断推高股价。但总体而言，这对未来一年的股票是积极的，所以除非你持有0DTE或本周到期的看涨期权，否则我根本不会交易它，如果下跌，就利用这个机会买入更多。
英文原文
I wouldn't trade the day of FED meeting. I'd personally de-risk before + keep high conviction stocks since I don't have an answer. The better thing to do would be to trade the frontrunning as a catalyst since rate cuts are almost certain, which was what I was doing eg. https://t.co/5pzt65jDUc For my guess though, MM's might use rate cut as an excuse to wipe out the extreme amount open interest expiring the 19th. If they do, it's a good buying opportunity, but if you need to hedge, VIX calls is always a good option since it's pretty low right now. Could be wrong though since stocks are expected to be at these levels or even higher because of USD printing + Trump cutting corporate taxes and we keep pumping higher even though there's been a lot of frontrunning for rate cut. But generally it's positive for stocks over the next year so unless have 0dte or doing calls expiring this week, I just wouldn't trade it and if it falls, use the opportunity to buy more.
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以LTC ETF为例，展示如何独立于市场情绪进行催化剂分析。
仅举一例——关于莱特币(LTC) ETF申请： 我平时不会特意去搜索莱特币 ETF，因为莱特币(Litecoin)根本不在我的考虑范围内。 然而，只是在浏览时看到 X/Reddit 上的人们在讨论它被拒的消息。 -> 搜索莱特币 ETF 申请，发现日期是10月2日。 -> 搜索 Polymarket + 彭博社(Bloomberg) 赔率（Reddit/X 上的情绪是“因为延迟所以会被拒”，但我忽略它） 我自行判断这是一个足以影响市值的重要催化剂，因为机构资金流入，且 ETF 有助于储备以及其它 ETF 购买其中的 LTC。
英文原文
Just one example - with LTC ETF filings: I don't go out of my way to search up Litecoin ETFs since Litecoin is never in the back of my mind. However, just browsing online people on X/Reddit were talking about it getting rejected. -> Search up Litecoin ETF filing, find it's Oct 2nd. -> Search up Polymarket + Bloomberg Odds (sentiment on Reddit/X are like "it's going to be rejected because of delays", but ignore it) Made my own decision that it's consequential enough of a catalyst to the marketcap because of institutional inflows and that ETFs help with reserves + other ETFs buying LTC in it.
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通过把握实际催化剂并忽略市场情绪来把握股票突破时机。
1. 通过交易实际催化剂(catalysts)来把握股票突破(breakouts)的时机。学习催化剂如何影响股价，同时忽略散户/新闻情绪(sentiment)。
英文原文
1. Time stock breakouts by trading on actual catalysts. Learn how catalysts affect stocks while ignoring retail/news sentiment. https://t.co/ozo2YzL5vy
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分享基于催化剂交易股票突破的方法论及实战案例。
1. 把握股票突破时机 + 基于催化剂进行交易。 技巧 #1： - 阅读 $RDDT、X、WSJ 等以获取财报等即将到来的事件信息。但**忽略市场情绪**，因为它通常是错的。我不得不强调要忽略市场情绪。 技巧 2： - 了解什么是真正的催化剂并提前买入。真正的催化剂 = 标普 500 指数纳入 $HOOD 导致 20 亿+资金流入。虚假的（针对空头）= CFO 辞职或随机会议（除非像 $SMCI 那样具有实质性影响）。 近期案例： HOOD (22.21%+) - 我在 $HOOD 被纳入标普 500 指数的当天购买了价值 32.5 万美元的股票，随后第二天上涨了 15%。催化剂是标普 500 指数纳入。 https://t.co/Q3ebNeJ7QU UNH 案例 (10.71%+) - 我在 318 美元时购买了价值 22.5 万美元的股票，几天后涨至 360 美元。作为主要的高股息股票，股息在一两周内发放，成为买入压力的催化剂。 https://t.co/M8qpeYRep9 LTC 案例（当前）- 两个催化剂是 1 个月后的 ETF 申请以及 ETF 推出后建立的 LTC 储备。 https://t.co/wtvfs4ANEc 显然，除了催化剂之外，还有很多其他因素需要同时考虑，但这是关于你应该学习的第一条建议。
英文原文
1. Time stock breakouts + trade based on catalysts. Tip #1: - Read $RDDT, X, WSJ, etc to get info on upcoming events like earnings/etc. But **IGNORE the sentiment** since it's usually wrong. I cannot stress ignore the sentiment enough. Tip 2: - Know what a real catalyst is and buy beforehand. Real = 2B+ from S&P flowing into $HOOD MC on inclusion. Fake (for shorts) = CFO resigning or random conferences (unless it's material like $SMCI). Recent examples: HOOD (22.21%+) - I bought $325K worth of $HOOD day of S&P 500 inclusion then it went up 15% the next day. Catalyst was S&P 500 inclusion. https://t.co/Q3ebNeJ7QU UNH example (10.71%+) - I bought $225K worth at $318 and then few days later it went to $360. As a major dividend stock, the dividend was in a week or two and a catalyst for buying pressure. https://t.co/M8qpeYRep9 LTC Example (currently) - Two catalysts are ETF filing in 1 month and LTC reserves built after ETF launch. https://t.co/wtvfs4ANEc Obviously there's a lot more should go on your mind CONCURRENTLY with catalysts but this is advice #1 on what to learn.
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博主预告将连载分享其交易思维与操作流程。
如何像我一样交易——长文系列 我在 Reddit 和 X 上以精准预测股票突破的时机而闻名。 在接下来的几周里，我将每隔一天发布一篇帖子，详细拆解我的操作流程，让大家了解我的思维方式和交易方法。 读一读没坏处！https://t.co/L21Ewv2iJz
英文原文
HOW TO TRADE LIKE ME – LONG THREAD I'm known for uncanny accuracy and timing stock breakouts on Reddit + X. Over the next few weeks I’ll share one post every other day walking through my process so you can see how I think and trade. Doesn't hurt to read! https://t.co/L21Ewv2iJz
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博主将分享深度研究逻辑，强调基本面与文件细节而非技术图表。
此外，我将开始发布更深入的幕后分析，解释为何我认为某只股票会突破，或者回顾我之前发布过的一些历史案例，这样即使我退出后，大家也能自行操作。 这些才是股票真正上涨的原因。而不是因为那些你花钱购买的、愚蠢的线条绘制，比如什么 ABCDEFGHIJK 修正波浪 51。 通常我发的是梗图，但每一份尽职调查(DD)背后都有大量工作。这也是为什么大家对我在次日股价上涨 5-20% 时那不可思议的时机把握感到好奇的原因。 如果你看过我对 $RDDT 的 $BULL 套利操作，你就会知道我也会阅读随机的 SEC Edgar 文件，这种细节程度才是必须的。
英文原文
Also, I’ll start posting a deeper analysis behind why I think a stock would breakout or some historical ones I’ve posted before so people can do it without me when I quit. And these are the reasons why a stock actually goes up. Not because of some stupid line drawing, with ABCDEFGHIJK correction wave 51 that you pay for. Usually I post memes, but theres a ton that goes into each DD. And it’s why everyone wonders why I have uncanny timings with things going up 5-20% the next day. If you saw my $BULL arbitrage on $RDDT, you would know I read through random sec Edgar filings too, so that level of detail is whats required.
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建议买入高IV股票现货，避免高风险虚值期权。
@koji_dev 我总是建议买入高隐含波动率(IV)股票的现货，除非你做一些极度虚值的看涨期权，并且碰巧押对了时机。
英文原文
@koji_dev I always recommend shares for high IV stocks unless you do some stupid way out of money call and somehow get the timing right.
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博主抨击收费交易课程为骗局，强调展示真实获利能力。
友情提醒：如果你真的是一个日内波段/算法交易者，你就不需要在 Discord 上售卖 50 美元的付费课程。 这些人是 X 上最大的“江湖骗子”（snake oil scammers）。 这也是我开设账号的主要原因之一，向人们展示如何从市场中真正获得回报 https://t.co/sQYIyHv9Yz
英文原文
PSA: If you were an actual swing/algorithmic trader, you wouldn’t need to sell $50 paywalled courses on Discord. These people are the biggest snake oil scammers on X. They’re one of the main reasons I started an account to show people how to actually make returns from markets https://t.co/sQYIyHv9Yz