供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1309 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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认为SIVE员工少但博士比例高，能构建极有价值IP。
瑞典人总是说： “$SIVE 员工这么少，怎么能做到所有这些？”相较于 $LITE？ 结果是……如果你整个员工队伍约四分之一都是博士，你就能构建世界上最有价值的 IP。
英文原文
People in Sweden always like: “How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE? Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
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美国CHIPS Act资金显示美国政府强力支持SIVE，涉及Golden Dome和RTX防务供应链。
市场有点意识到美国政府正在大力支持 $SIVE，正如直接美国 CHIPS Act 资金所显示。 因为你能在 $YSS Golden Dome 供应链（来自 allspace）和 $RTX 防务供应链（CHIPS Act）中看到 Sivers。 不过是的，Ericsson 和 Sivers 可能是从美瑞技术 MOU 中受益更明显的两个。
英文原文
Markets are kinda realizing US Gov is heavily backing $SIVE as you can see with direct US CHIPS Act funding. Since you see Sivers in $YSS Golden Dome supply chains (from allspace), and $RTX defense supply chains (chips act). But yeah Ericsson and SIvers are probably the two more noticable ones benefiting from US x Sweden tech MOU.
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提到Intel EMIB先进封装供应链中AP Memory 6531。
关于 $INTC EMIB 先进封装供应链： 如果你以为上 AP 历史或 AP 化学之后不会更糟： 显然有家公司叫 AP Memory（6531）。市值48亿美元，已经获得认证。 如果有人想看一下。我现在在吃火锅，没有足够时间做尽调。
英文原文
For $INTC EMIB advanced packaging supply chains: If you thought it couldn’t get worse after taking AP History or AP Chemistry: There’s apparently a company called: AP Memory (6531). $4.8B MC that got qualified. In case anyone wanted to take a look. I’m eating hot pot rn so not enough time for DD.
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称SIVE是CPO kingmaker，围绕Lightmatter/Celestial/Ayar/O-Net/Jabil等供应激光。
$SIVE 字面上是 CPO 的 kingmaker： 从早期的 Lightmatter、Celestial、Ayar、Lightelligence，到现在这些估值50-100亿美元以上的领导者。 再到 Marvell、Alchip、GUC 这样的 ASIC 生态。 O-Net 与 Sivers 为 CPO 量产 ELS。 Jabil 与 Sivers 为可插拔光收发器量产可插拔产品。 所有这些很可能都围绕 Sivers 激光，并以它为设计核心。 市场才刚刚开始看到这家激光公司有多重要。
英文原文
$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO: From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations. To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC. With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO. And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers. All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers. Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.
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列出多家台湾功率半导体低市值潜在玩家。
功率半导体现在似乎很受欢迎。报告中标出了这些名字： Pan Jit（2481）约16亿美元 Eris Tech（3675）约5.32亿美元市值 Advanced Power Electronics（8261）约5.65亿美元市值 Inergy Technology（6693）约2.02亿美元市值 Potens（7712）约1.70亿美元 这些功率半导体制造商可能扮演重要角色。 市值都很低，也许其中几个有高上行空间，所以我现在可能会对每一个做更多研究。
英文原文
Power Semis seem to be very popular now. These names got flagged in reports: Pan Jit (2481) ~$1,6B Eris Tech (3675) ~$532M MC Advanced Power Electronics (8261) ~$565M MC Inergy Technology (6693) ~$202m MC Potens (7712) ~$170M for power semiconductor makers that might play an important role. All really low MC, maybe high upside in a few, so I'll probably do some more research on each one now.
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AMD投资台湾生态100亿美元以上，利好封测、ODM、PCB及二阶光学受益者。
正如我刚说的： $AMD 向台湾生态投资100亿美元以上（用于保障产能/扩展基础设施）。 AMD 正与 $ASX 和 SPIL 合作。 以及 ODM 伙伴如 $SANM、Wiwynn（6669）、Wistron（3231）和 Inventec（2356）。 PTI、Unimicron、AIC、Nan Ya PCB、Kinsus 也被点名为直接受益者。 当然，像 Foci 或 MSScorps 这样的二阶受益者也会受益。 总的来说，AMD 新闻利好台湾供应链。
英文原文
Just as I say this: $AMD invests $10B+ into Taiwan ecosystem (for securing capacity/scaling infra) AMD is collaborating with $ASX and SPIL. As well as ODM partners like “ $SANM, Wiwynn (6669), Wistron (3231) and Inventec (2356). PTI, Unimicron, AIC, Nan Ya PCB, and Kinsus were also name dropped as direct beneficiaries. And of course second order beneficiaries like Foci or MSScorps also benefit. But bullish on Taiwan supply chains all around from $AMD news.
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认为6月1日NVIDIA台北Computex/GTC演讲可能利好台湾光学生态。
如果你想提前布局下一个重大催化： $NVDA 6月1日 Computex/GTC Taipei 主题演讲，应该会对台湾光学生态非常看多？ 就像我在 Nvidia 美国活动时做多 $TSEM 和其他公司一样。 Shunsin、Foci、Nextronics、MSScorps，以及我 Nvidia 光子学生态组合里的很多名字，可能会在那里被关键提及或获得间接催化。
英文原文
Just in case you want to frontrun the next major catalyst: $NVDA June 1 Computex/GTC Taipei keynote should be heavily bullish Taiwan optical ecosystem? Just like when I went long on $TSEM and others in Nvidia’s US event. Shunsin, Foci, Nextronics, MSScorps, and a lot of my Nvidia photonics ecosystem port might be critical mentions or have indirect catalysts there.
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认为SIVE可能是JBL特定1.6T LRO唯一供应商，因架构独特。
回复 @ShakespeareDad：鉴于架构独特性，$SIVE 很可能是 $JBL 这款特定 1.6T LRO 的唯一来源。 它不是标准 CW 激光器。
英文原文
@ShakespeareDad $SIVE is likely sole source for this specific 1.6T LRO from $JBL given the architectural uniqueness. It’s not a standard cw laser.
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JPM炉边会显示JBL 1.6T LRO量产早于预期，SIVE激光架构形成护城河且需求近乎无上限。
$SIVE 与 $JBL 的 1.6T 光收发器量产： 根据 JPMorgan 炉边谈话，现在比预期更早。 他们宣布的内容： > $SIVE 激光架构暗示“相当显著的护城河”。 > 其 1.6T 存在极端需求，此前市场并不知道具体量级。 > 时间线快于预期，将收入实现窗口提前。 声明内容： 1. Jabil 的 1.6T LRO “将在未来1到4个月进入不同认证”。 “认证可能需要2到6个月。” 考虑到现在是2026年上半年5月，量产和收入实现可能在3到10个月内开始。 以6.5个月中点看，就是2026年底。 很多此前估计是2027年下半年。 3. 架构上，它“比当前1.6T 功耗曲线低约11千瓦”。 超大云厂商会喜欢听到这个，而这就是通过 $SIVE 作为关键光子学 chokepoint 证明的竞争差异化和相当显著护城河。 4. “在这一点上，不是份额问题。真正的问题是跟上整个市场的自然增长。” 这再次显示巨大需求已经超过供应。 含义是，关键变成 Sivers + Jabil 能一起生产多少，因为它们生产的任何东西都会被买走。 这种表述对 Sivers 相对于当前市值的收入极其重要。 市场此前不确定 Sivers x Jabil 的确切需求量和商业时间线。 Jabil 刚刚公开确认，使用 $SIVE 激光的 1.6T LRO 需求本质上没有上限。
英文原文
$SIVE mass production for 1.6T optical transceivers with $JBL: Is now earlier than expected per JP Morgan Fireside chat. Here's what they announced: > "Relatively dramatic moat" implied with $SIVE laser architectures > Extreme demand for their 1.6T, which was previously unknown in terms of volume. > Faster than expected timelines, pulling revenue realization window forward. The statement: 1. Jabil’s 1.6T LRO: "Goes into different qualifications across the next 1 to 4 months" “The quals can take anywhere between 2 to 6 months" Given its May H1 2026, mass production and revenue realization could begin in anywhere between 3 months to 10 months. So late 2026 with 6.5 month midpoint. Lot of former estimates were H2 2027. 3. Architecturally it's "which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles" Hyperscalers would like to hear this, and this is the competitive differentiation + relatively dramatic moat proven with $SIVE as the critical photonics chokepoint. 4. "At this point, it's not about share. It's really about keeping up with the organic growth of the entire market." Again this shows that the enormous demand has outstripped supply. The implications are that it’s more of a matter of how much Sivers + Jabil can build together, as anything they make would be bought. This type of statement is just incredibly material for Sivers revenue relative to their current marketcap. The market was previously uncertain about the exact volume demand and commercial timeline from Sivers X Jabil. Jabil just publicly confirmed that the demand for their 1.6T LRO with $SIVE lasers is essentially uncapped.
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出口管制InP会伤及IQE/LITE等下游，而管制人形机器人瓶颈连带伤害较小。
我在思考对 Rasa/NCI 的出口管制，但如果总体上暂停中国 InP 衬底生产，会对 $IQE、$LITE 等下游造成很多附带损害。 但通过 Ulvac 和其他瓶颈暂停中国人形机器人生产，并不会造成同等程度的附带损害。
英文原文
I was thinking about export controls on Rasa/NCI but that would cause a lot of downstream collateral damage on $IQE, $LITE, etc. if you halted China's InP substrate production in general. But halting China's humanoid production with Ulvac and other chokepoints doesn't really do as much collateral harm.
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称中国曾管制日本上游InP衬底以阻断西方AI光子供应链，建议美日反制。
回复 @TigerMeditation：兄弟，中国在1月我发 $AXTI 帖后，字面上对日本上游 InP 衬底实施出口管制，以阻断西方 AI 光子供应链。 也许美国/日本该用便宜内裤关税以外的方式反击了？
英文原文
@TigerMeditation Bro China literally export controlled Japan on upstream InP substrates back in Jan, after my $AXTI post, to halt Western AI photonic supply chains. Maybe it's time for US/Japan to fight back, in ways other than tariffs on cheap underwear??
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建议美日将Ulvac列入出口管制，以打击中国人形机器人稀土磁体设备瓶颈。
一个随手想法： 美国政府/日本应该把 Ulvac（6728）列入出口管制名单，让它们停止向中国发货。 这样就能扰乱中国整个人形机器人计划（因为它是“军民两用应用”）。 作为对上游 InP/稀土相关出口管制的报复。 对袜子出口加45%关税没什么用，但扰乱中国机器人计划，确实有用。 Ulvac 是日本在钕磁体上的主要 chokepoint。 “Ulvac 长期通过其中国子公司制造稀土磁体真空熔炼炉。” 所以也许该让这件事停下来？ 如果它们停止出货，你可以打断宇树和其他中国人形机器人量产供应链。 只有当中国允许稀土出口重新流动时，出口才能继续。
英文原文
Just a shower thought: US Gov/Japan should put Ulvac (6728) on the export control list so they stop shipping to China. That way you can disrupt China's entire humanoid program (since it's "Dual Use Military Applications"). As retaliation over upstream InP/rare earth related export controls. Adding 45% tariffs on sock exports won't do much, but disrupting China's robotics program, sure. Ulvac is Japan's major chokepoint over neodymium magnets. "Ulvac has long manufactured rare-earth magnet vacuum melting furnaces through its Chinese subsidiary". So maybe put that to rest? If they stop shipping, you can break Unitree's and other humanoid mass production supply chains in China. And only if they allow rare earth exports to start flowing again, then exports can continue.
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梳理Starlink/Amazon Kuiper LEO PCB供应链和下一阶段光学星间链路瓶颈。
Starlink / Amazon Kuiper LEO 想法： -> Compeq（2313）：“已获得包括 Starlink 和 Amazon Kuiper 计划在内的领先运营商订单” - 96亿美元市值。 “分析师称，PCB 供应商涌入可能形成‘玩家众多、蛋糕有限’动态，提高新进入者壁垒。” - Unitech Printed Circuit Board - Chin-Poon Industrial、K Tech - ACCL “都预计在赢得合同时面临越来越大困难。” 接下来会发生什么： - 光学星间链路（OISL）。 瓶颈想法： - 高频所需的下一代 HDI 板越来越依赖特殊材料，导致上游供应链交期更长。 所以值得研究这个上游领域。
英文原文
Starlink / Amazon Kuiper LEO ideas: -> Compeq (2313): "has secured orders from leading operators, including Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper program" - $9.6B MC "Analysts say the influx of PCB suppliers is likely to produce a "many players, limited pie" dynamic, raising barriers for newer entrants" - Unitech Printed Circuit Board - Chin-Poon Industrial, K Tech - ACCL "are all expected to face growing difficulty in winning contracts." What's coming next: - optical inter-satellite links (OISL). Bottleneck ideas: - next-generation HDI boards required for high-frequency are increasingly dependent on specialty materials, leading to longer lead times across the upstream supply chain So good to look into this upstream area.
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中国掌握人形机器人量产关键牌，美国应加大主权稀土供应链投资。
谁能想到中国在人形机器人量产上握着所有牌？ 如果美国真的看好 $TSLA 或 Figure 机器人计划的未来。 也许是时候开始向主权稀土供应链投入更多资金了。 我们现在做的还不够。
英文原文
Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production? Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs. Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains. Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough. https://t.co/VQXh9otLMi
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Apple Watch 2026下半年健康监测升级或用TASC光电二极管，后续无创血糖监测可能关联SIVE激光。
这只是对时间线的确认： 2026年下半年是高端 Apple Watch 的“重大重新设计”，用于血压相关功能，使用 TASC 光电二极管（2340）。 下一部分可能是 $SIVE 与 $AAPL 的项目： “此后，Apple 的下一项健康监测能力预计将聚焦无创血糖监测。” 所以……下一轮更新很可能是 Sivers 的高度定制激光，也许在2027年下半年或2028年。 仍然有点早，但如果时间线/含义保持完整，市场可能会重视 Apple 带来的多年收入可见度。
英文原文
This is just confirmation on timelines: H2 2026 is the "major redesign of high end Apple Watches" for blood pressure related stuff using TASC photodiodes(2340). This next part is $SIVE likely project with $AAPL: "After this, Apple's next health monitoring capabilities are expected to focus on noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring." So.. the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028. Still a bit early, but if timeline/implications are in tact, markets might appreciate multi-year revenue visibility with Apple.
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梳理玻璃基板光刻胶、ABF瓶颈和关键矿物供应链。
一些随机笔记： 关于玻璃基板：“YC Chem 据称成为业内首家供应玻璃基板光刻胶的公司”（KR 112290）。 - 目标年底量产，通常量产 + 首发对股价有利。 “目前正与三家以上公司洽谈玻璃基板材料供应”，所以还有更多认证。 “Samyang NC Chem 也在开发玻璃基板光刻胶材料”（482630）。 - 正在送样，明年量产，是另一个玻璃基板名字。 “$NVDA 可能通过长期协议、预付款或战略合作提前锁定高端基板产能，目标是避免 CoWoS 和 HBM 过去出现的供应限制重演。”这与 $TSM COUPE 基板有关。 “Commercial Times 强调，AI GPU、ASIC 和 CPO 需求可能在2027年前触发另一轮高端 ABF 基板短缺。” 所以还有更多基板瓶颈。 另外还有：“中国同意解决美国对稀土和关键矿物短缺的担忧，特别是钇、钪、钕和铟。” 如果你想找多头想法，可以研究钇、钪、钕和铟供应链。 现在一切都在回调，但如果你对更多随机想法感兴趣，这是值得关注的东西。
英文原文
Just some random notes: For glass substrates: "YC Chem has reportedly become the first in the industry to supply photoresists for glass substrates" (KR 112290) - targeting EOY mass production, usually mass production + first to market is good for stock prices. "is currently in discussions with more than three companies regarding the supply of glass substrate materials" so more qualifications. "Samyang NC Chem is also developing photoresist materials for glass substrates" (482630) - Sampling, mass production next year another glass substrate name " $NVDA may seek to secure high-end substrate capacity in advance through long-term agreements, prepayments, or strategic partnerships, aiming to avoid a repeat of the supply constraints previously seen in CoWoS and HBM." This is in relation to $TSM COUPE on Substrate. "As Commercial Times highlights, demand from AI GPUs, ASICs, and CPO could trigger another supply shortage of high-end ABF substrates by 2027." So more substrate bottleneck stuff. Then there's: "China's agreement to address US concerns over rare earth and critical mineral shortages specifically yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium" So good to look into yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium supply chains if you want long ideas. Everything is kinda correcting right now, but just something to keep a lookout for if ur interested in more random ideas.
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SIVE获得美国CHIPS Act 660万美元，与BAE合作用于美国防务基础设施现代化。
最新：$SIVE 获得美国 CHIPS Act 660万美元。 这是第二年项目的660万美元。 与 BAE Systems 合作：“使用 Sivers 技术现代化美国防务基础设施”。 像 $SIVE 这样小的公司获得 CHIPS Act 资金，极其看多。 因为它把 Sivers 定位为一个关键、由美国政府托底的国家安全 chokepoint。
英文原文
Just in: $SIVE gets $6.6M from the US CHIPS ACT. This is a $6.6M Year 2 Program. In collaboration with BAE Systems: "Modernizing U.S. Defense Infrastructure Using Sivers Technology" This is incredibly bullish to have such a small company in $SIVE to get CHIPS ACT funding. As it positions Sivers as a critical, US-government backstopped chokepoint for national security.
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预计明年会有很多关于FAU和组件瓶颈的文章，FOCI/Nextronics等会处于中心。
明年……我预计会有很多关于 FAU + 组件瓶颈的文章。 尤其是随着 $NVDA + $TSM 领导的新 CPO 架构开始放量。 然后今天我提到的 FOCI（约28亿美元市值）或 Nextronics（约2.46亿美元市值）等很多名字会处于中心。 尽管其中很多被贴上“商品”标签……（看看变压器/NAND）。 到时我会像 $AXTI 一样发一条“你听了吗，朋友”。 我们看看这是否正确。
英文原文
Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks. Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVDA + $TSM starts to scale. Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it. Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND) And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXTI. We’ll see if this is right.
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解释 photonic memory 其实是整机集成层逻辑
@vz921 他们 P/S 低，是因为本质上就是 $SMCI、$DELL、$FLNC 这一类集成商。 他们只是把 photonic memory 当作核心部件装进整机里，再拿它去和真正拥有核心半导体 IP 的公司对比。 X 上到处都是这种说法，真的很烦。 https://t.co/PyqMGpZZHX
英文原文
@vz921 They have low P/S ratios because it's an $SMCI $DELL $FLNC type integrator. Then they just throw in photonic memory when they build the appliance around it, then compare it to core semiconductor IP holders. It's annoying seeing stuff like this all over X. https://t.co/PyqMGpZZHX
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强调他们做的是围绕 photonic memory 的机箱/外壳
@chucktheeegreat 就是所有人。 他们做的是围绕 photonic memory 公司的机箱/外壳。 你们全在胡闹。 https://t.co/kyJcrw2Hg9
英文原文
@chucktheeegreat Literally everyone. They make the chassis around photonic memory companies. You all are trolling. https://t.co/kyJcrw2Hg9
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区分 PENG 的整机层与真正的光子内核 IP
说得很细。买 $PENG 去押 $MRVL 的“photonic memory”大概率会失望。 他们更像是 $SMCI 那一层的集成商，外加一些潜在的软件增值。 高毛利、真正的基础 IP 属于 Celestial 或 Lightmatter 这类公司。 他们做的是在机架里围绕 Celestial / Marvell 的 photonic memory IP 搭一个 2U 盒子。 这也还处在联合开发阶段。 散户只是把这些层级全搞混了，以为这家公司在做核心 photonic memory IP。 我不是在评论股价会不会涨，只是说它的基础业务确实有意义；如果能越过 sampling，向上的弹性会很大。 只是每次看到别人把“PHOTONIC MEMORY”挂在嘴边就很烦。 他们做的其实只是放核心 IP 的机箱，连 qualification 都还没到。
英文原文
Very nuanced. People buying $PENG for $MRVL "photonic memory" are likely to be disappointed. They're on the $SMCI integrator level with potential software add. The high margin, foundational IP belongs to companies like Celestial or others like Lightmatter. What they do is build a 2U box, inside the rack, around Celestial/Marvell's the photonic memory IP. It's also in the development collaboration stage. Retail just misunderstand the different layers and conflate them all as this company building core photonic memory IP. Not commenting on the potential price, but it's a legitimate idea for its base business. And upside would be material if they go past sampling. Just annoying when I get comments about "PHOTONIC MEMORY". Then they're building the chassis that the actual photonic memory IP sits inside and not even in qualification stage.
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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分析对华加征关税效果有限，需切断上游供应才有效。
@lorddaws 我认为中国不会太在意美国对廉价$LU LU仿品或袜子进口征收45%关税这种事。 如果你能通过切断台湾、欧洲、韩国、日本等地区向上游供应商的出口，来完全扼住他们整个人工智能/机器人/太空项目，那确实会有效果。
英文原文
@lorddaws I don't think China cares so much about US slapping 45% tariffs on cheap $LULU ripoffs or sock imports. If you completely freeze their entire AI/robotics/space programs by choking off upstream vendors over in Taiwan, Europe, Korea, Japan, and other exports to China, sure.
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用 InP substrate 说明供应链控制应该瞄准上游
这次 $AXTI / InP substrate 出口管制正好说明： 特朗普的 America First 政策应该聚焦在保护欧洲、日本、韩国这些地方的供应链。 并且把它们武器化来对付中国。 单靠美国本身当然有筹码，但把日本、欧盟、韩国一起用起来，筹码会大得多。 如果让日本切断中国的人形机器人项目 / 上游化学品供应，再让欧盟切断中国的 photonics 项目： 他们会为了 substrates 和稀土让步。 你真正需要做的是掐住他们前沿产业发展的良率，或者直接卡制造这些组件的能力。 而不是只拿 40% 关税吓唬他们别再出口廉价商品。
英文原文
This $AXTI / InP substrate export controls is EXACTLY why: Trump's America 1st policies should focus around securing its supply chains over in EU/Japan/KR. And weaponizing it against China. US alone has leverage, but everyone together has extreme leverage. If you use Japan to cut off China's humanoid program / upstream chemicals and leverage EU to cut off China's photonics program: They'll bend for substrates and rare earths. You literally need to break their frontier industry development over yields or actually manufacturing the components. Not just threaten 40% tariffs to stop them from shipping cheap goods.
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把 AXTI / InP substrates 牵扯进中美谈判
天啊，聊天室里不会吧……真不敢信 $AXTI / InP substrates 真的成了中美和特朗普、习近平贸易谈判的一部分？ 我这个 thesis 完全押对了。 但说真的，日本应该开始切断像 Ulvac 这样的上游设备供应，优先针对中国的人形机器人产业；红磷供应也该像 Rasa / NCI 那样限制。 而美国应该施压欧盟，把那些被中国公司像 Robotechnik 买走的 photonic 垄断资产，比如 ficonTEC，收回来。
英文原文
LOL chat no way... Can't believe $AXTI / InP substrates really a major part of the China-US Donald Trump's trade talks with Xi? I got this thesis completely right. But really, Japan should start to cut off upstream machine supply like Ulvac for humanoids. And red phosphorus like Rasa/NCI to China, if they're not shipping. And US should pressure EU to take back their their photonic monopolies like ficonTEC that Chinese companies like Robotechnik managed to buy.
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说 SIVE 正在变成下一家美国 photonics 龙头
$SIVE 现在正朝着下一个 $LITE、也就是美国 photonics 巨头的方向前进。 他们正在把董事会重新调整为以美国高管和美国 photonics 为中心。 所以现在核心董事会成员变成了：来自美国的 $GFS 高管和 $CITI 高管，再加上由 UC Berkeley 毕业生和 $LITE 前高管管理公司。 原来离开的 3 位成员来自瑞典 / 欧盟本地。 这只是战略从“发展本地瑞典半导体生态”转向“主导美国 / 全球 photonics 市场”。 我不是想贬低他们的履历。 只是按我的看法，如果目标是聚焦美国 / 全球 photonics 市场，更多美国高管会更优。 但无论如何，他们都值得为把 $SIVE 带到今天的样子而自豪。
英文原文
$SIVE is now aiming to become the next $LITE, a US photonics giant. They're re-centering their board around US executives + US photonics. So the core board are now: US $GFS Executives and $CITI Executives, with the company run by UC Berkeley grads and $LITE executives. The 3 members leaving were local Swedish/EU. This is just a shift in strategy from focusing on developing local Swedish Semi environments: To dominating the US/global photonics market. I'm not trying to discredit their service/background. But in my view to focus around US/global photonics markets, it's likely optimal to have more US executives. But they should all be proud for helping make $SIVE what it is today.
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批评台湾金融监管的荒唐规则
台湾金融行业的规则真是离谱。 他们竟然把联发科这样的大公司都卖掉了，笑死。 这就像美国因为 Google 涨太多，就不让人再买 $GOOGL 一样。 然后还导致 Google 股价下跌。 他们难道不希望自己公司的估值上涨、让本国经济受益吗？ 尤其在半导体大牛市的这个阶段，明明每一周都很关键，这种规则其实是在拖自己高科技经济的后腿。 真有意思，自己的规则反而在伤害自己的高科技经济。
英文原文
Taiwan financial sector rules are hilariously stupid. They literally dispositioned Mediatek, one of their largest companies lmfao. It's like if the US stopped letting people buy $GOOGL because the stock went up. Then that caused Google's stock dropped after. Wouldn't they want their companies to appreciate in value, so their economy benefits? Especially during one of their largest bull-runs from the semi sector, it's actually hindering their own growth where every week matters. Interesting to see such backward rules hurting their own high-tech economy.
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把 SIVE 和 Ayar / AlChip / Amazon Trainium 链条连起来
@DanilSer33 新的 $SIVE / Ayar / AlChip / $AMZN Trainium 供应链，比最近那个 $POET 5000 万到 5 亿美元采购订单更值得看多。 市场大概率不会立刻看出 Ayar、AlChip 和 $SIVE 之间的联系，除非有人把它点出来。
英文原文
@DanilSer33 The new $SIVE / Ayar / AlChip / $AMZN trainium supply chain is more bullish than the recent $POET $50m -> $500m purchase order. Markets probably won’t see the connection between Ayar AlChip and $SIVE unless someone points it out though.
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补充 Amazon / AlChip / Ayar 对 SIVE 的利好链条
再补一句关于很正面的 $SIVE 消息，以及 MSCI 未来两周可能带来数千万资金流入： $AMZN 刚和 AlChip 做了新的私募配售。 这大概率意味着未来 Trainium 还有设计赢单。 如果你还记得的话……AlChip 是 Ayar 的主客户。而 $SIVE 是 Ayar 的主要激光供应商。 所以对 $SIVE 的含义会非常大，它是在搭 Amazon 生态增长的顺风车。
英文原文
Just to add to the very positive $SIVE news amid MSCI likely tens of millions of inflow in 2 weeks: $AMZN has a new private placement with AlChip. Probably implying design wins with future Trainium. If you don’t remember… AlChip was Ayar’s lead customer. And $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. So implications for $SIVE, is enormous piggybacking off of Amazon’s ecosystem growth.
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质疑 POET 估值高过 FOCI 的合理性
为什么 $POET（31.4 亿美元）的估值会比 FOCI（3363，31 亿美元）还高？？？ FOCI 明明就是 CPO 量产爬坡的瓶颈，也是 $TSM 和 $NVDA 的主要供应商。 我非常看好 FOCI，等机构发现这个名字后，它会跑赢。 另外，FOCI 管理层能不能像 $HIMX 那样去做 NASDAQ ADR？谢谢。
英文原文
HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)??? FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA. High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name. Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.