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纠正此前观点，称回调针对OFC而非英伟达GTC
是的，只是一个回调，是OFC*不是$NVDA GTC
英文原文
@Roenick1010 Yep, just a correction, was OFC* not $NVDA GTC
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认为市场还没完全意识到 Jabil 与 SIVE 的合作，约 3.1 亿美元市值可能被低估。
我觉得市场大多数人还没注意到 Jabil 和 $SIVE 的合作。 尤其是除了 OFC 会议现场流出的实物线索之外，并没有正式新闻。 我感觉，Jabil 的收发器光源按 3.1 亿美元市值来算…… 可能还低估了。 https://t.co/bAnDygPD3X
英文原文
Don’t think majority of the market picked up on the Jabil and $SIVE partnership yet. Especially since there’s no formal news, aside from physical leaks from the OFC conference*. Feel like $310M MC for Jabil’s transceiver light source… Might be underpricing it. https://t.co/bAnDygPD3X
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提醒对方别忘了自己最初发现 SIVE 时，它也只有 2.8 亿美元市值。
@Kallemk75 兄弟，别往伤口上撒盐，但记得你发现 $SIVE 的时候，它才 2.8 亿美元市值。
英文原文
@Kallemk75 gg, not to put salt on the wound, but just remember, $SIVE was once $280M MC when you found it.
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解释自己很早知道 SIVE，但因为觉得硅光周期还早而没买，直到 GTC 出现催化。
我之前就知道这家公司一段时间了，因为 Reddit 上一直有人狂吹 $POET，而那也是他们最喜欢的股票。 Sivers 也时不时被提到。 只是我一直觉得硅光 / CPO 还有很长时间才会真正落地，所以从没真正做多。 但 $NVDA GTC 成了它需要的催化剂，尤其是在……
英文原文
Was aware of it for awhile from all the $POET shilling back on Reddit as it's their #1 favorite stock over there. And Sivers got name dropped from time to time. Just felt like silicon photonics/CPO was quite a ways away so never went long. But $NVDA GTC was the catalyst it needed, especially with the new Jabil announcement. So ended up going long.
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认为 Jabil 的规模和验证意义很大，SIVE 可能会因这条消息迅速重估到更高市值。
Jabil 体量很大，几乎给每一家超大规模云厂商供货。 这毫无疑问是 $SIVE 到目前为止最重要的消息，因为这等于给他们的光源做了超大规模云级别的验证。 Sivers 以 2.8 亿美元市值来看太便宜了，我不会惊讶它因为这条消息在短期内重估到 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
Jabil is just massive and supplies to almost every hyperscaler. This is definitely the biggest news to date for $SIVE as this is hyperscaler-level validation for their light source. Sivers is dirt cheap at $280m, would not be surprised if it ended up $2B+ near term repricing this news.
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把 SIVE 视作 MRVL Celestial、Ayar、O-Net、Jabil 等链路的激光源，最终服务于大型云厂商。
它们字面上就是 $MRVL Celestial 通过 $POET、Ayar -> AI Chip / GUC、O-Net，乃至现在的 Jabil 所使用的光源。 所以终端客户大概率全是 $MSFT、$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN……也就是说，它们可能会成为整个超大规模云供应链，甚至亚洲供应链的未来潜在光源。 市值只有 2.8 亿美元，wtf？ 按 30 亿到 50 亿美元去看都不夸张。
英文原文
They're literally the light source for $MRVL Celestial through $POET, Ayar -> Ai Chip/GUC, O-Net, and now Jabil. So end users are probably all $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN... The future potential light source for the entire hyperscaler supply chain and even ones in Asia. At $280m MC, wtf? $3-5B MC for $SIVE near term is not far fetched.
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Sivers成为Jabil 1.6T光收发器激光光源供应商，是其在CPO/硅光子供应链中的重大突破。
Sivers <$SIVE/$SIVEF>为Jabil（270亿美元市值）<$JBL>的1.6T长距离光(LRO)收发器提供光源。 作为激光光源供应商。 这无疑是$SIVE（2.8亿美元市值）公司历史上——也是今天$NVDA GTC大会上——最大的新闻…… Jabil从$AMZN、$GOOGL和$META等终端用户那里带来约300亿美元以上的收入。 以及$NVDA、Arista、$AVGO和Cisco等OEM厂商。 尤其是在收购$INTC的硅光子(SiPh)光收发器业务后，他们在该领域已是一级供应商(Tier 1)。 Sivers为Jabil提供连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB laser)光源，应用于硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(CPO)及超大规模云服务商供应链： 对于一家市值仅2.8亿美元的公司来说，这是难以置信的，而且他们是光子学领域我见过的最不知名却最具潜力的公司。 $NVDA GTC的消息只是进一步巩固了这一投资论点。 我认为他们真的有机会成为下一个$LITE。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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表示自己还想再加 SIVE，因为 Jabil 供货超大规模云厂商的验证非常关键。
@Be_nice_dot_com 我还是不太够 $SIVE……尤其是有了这个消息之后，我大概会在开盘再加一点。 $JBL 应该是这个领域最大的玩家之一，基本上给所有超大规模云厂商供货。
英文原文
@Be_nice_dot_com I don't have enough $SIVE... Especially after this news and I'll probably add more market open. $JBL is probably one of the largest players in this space and basically supply to all the hyperscalers.
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博主认为SIVE成为Jabil光源供应商的消息将驱动SIVE股价大幅重新估值。
@mrsgayathridas 关于$IBKR的看法。$SIVE成为$JBL的光源这个新公告可能是迄今为止最大的新闻。我预计这只股票将因这个消息而获得巨大的重新估值。Jabil为$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN、$MSFT提供光收发器。他们是一个巨头的存在。
英文原文
@mrsgayathridas $IBKR. The new announcement $SIVE is the light source for $JBL is probably biggest news to date. And I expect the stock to get re-rated immensely from the news. Jabil powers $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT for optical transceivers. They’re a huge player.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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说自己所有内容都免费发在 X 上。
@21mattsmith1998 不，我所有内容都免费发在 X 上。
英文原文
@21mattsmith1998 No, I post all my stuff for free on X
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用日文表示不认为光子股只是短周期行情，未来几年会成为 AI 扩容的新架构。
🙇 我不认为像 $AXTI 这样的光子（photonics）股票，只是短期周期的题材。未来几年里，它们应该会成为扩展 AI 的新架构！ 我觉得这些公司都还处在非常早期，所以我个人会继续持有。其他人当然也可以自由获利了结！
英文原文
🙇$AXTI のようなフォトニクス（光技術）銘柄が、短期的なサイクルで終わるとは思っていません。今後数年間で、AIをスケールさせるための新しいアーキテクチャになるはずです！ これらの企業はすべてまだ本当に初期段階にあると思うので、私自身はホールド（継続保有）するつもりです。他の方が利確（利益確定）するのはご自由にどうぞ！
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博主提出三种情景下的减仓应对策略：TSLA换供应商则降Optimus风险，和平时期则退国防股，加密熊市则卖HOOD
除非发生重大变化。如果$TSLA转而使用中国供应商而不是$VPG进行大规模生产，那么我关于Optimus物料清单(BOM)的论点会略微改变，我就会降低风险。如果美国突然进入和平时期、战争结束，那么最好退出国防相关股票。如果加密货币最终崩溃，可能意味着$HOOD的增长周期接近尾声，可以考虑在$100以上时退出。
英文原文
Unless there’s material changes. If $TSLA comes in and uses Chinese suppliers instead of $VPG for mass production, then my thesis on Optimus BOM slightly breaks and I’ll derisk. If US suddenly enters peacetime and there’s no War anymore, it’s better to exit defense related stocks. If crypto ends up crashing it’s probably near the end of the growth cycle for $HOOD and it’s fine to exit $100+.
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认为 IREN 的 60 亿美元 ATM 会压制上行，反驳大量持有人情绪化评论。
@Spiralout_one 是啊，我每天都能收到很多 $IREN 持有者愤怒的 spam 评论。 原来直接说一个 60 亿美元的 ATM 会压制上行，对他们来说这么有争议，因为他们觉得光凭图表里一根波浪线，就能让 60 亿美元新发行的卖压把股价翻四倍。
英文原文
@Spiralout_one Yeah I get a lot of $IREN spam comments from angry holders every day. Turns out saying that a $6B ATM caps upside is controversial to them as they think $6 Billion in newly minted selling pressure makes the stock quadruple in value from a swiggly line on a chart TA.
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分析伊朗冲突油价对供应链影响，低毛利率企业受冲击大于内存公司，看空持续高油价。
我在伊朗冲突前做过分析，并用石油多头如 $CVX 进行对冲。我卖出了很多亚洲股票如Unimicron和Nanya，获取已实现短期资本利得。 我已经做过石油/LNG/氦气的分析，发现对利润率影响很小到轻微，但主要影响毛利率较低的5-10%的公司，而不是像Samsung/SK Hynix这样的内存公司。所以我个人方向性做多，虽然隐含波动率(IV)交易结果不错。 如果油价极高，我预期会有Taco或美国干预，所以我不看好持续高企的原油价格。
英文原文
I did before the Iran conflict and hedged with oil longs like $CVX. I sold off a lot of Asian names like Unimicron and Nanya for realized short term capital gains. I already did an analysis on oil/lng/helium and found their to be little to slightly moderate affect on margins, but mainly affects companies with lower gross margins sitting at 5-10% rather than memory ones like Samsung/SK Hynix. So I’m personally directionally long although the IV trade turned out well. If oil prices are extremely high, I expect a Taco or US intervention so I’m not bullish on sustained high crude prices
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分析Sivers和IQE在硅光子学供应链中的卡位，看好其从传统业务向InP光子学的转型机会。
$SIVE/$SIVEF和$IQE。Sivers为CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)制造激光阵列和CW DFB激光器。并且已经嵌入超大规模云厂商如$AMZN和$MSFT集群的供应链，作为Captive模式如$MRVL Celestial和Merchant模式如Ayar的光源。然后他们通过晶圆(win)认证来提升产能，这样在内部扩产时不会消耗太多资本支出。$IQE是InP外延片(epiwafer)供应商，正在将legacy沉积反应器重构用于光子学供应链。他们已经是$LITE的已知供应商，另一大供应商是Landmark，估值约40亿美元（但产能潜力较小）。这基本上相当于将$IREN或$RIOT的比特币矿工转为HPC，但针对的是光子学。有相当多的债务，但这更多是在赌台湾销售能通过，以及管理层会转向InP生产以获得重新评级。所以这两家是我目前最看好的。
英文原文
$SIVE / $SIVEF and $IQE. Sivers makes laser arrays and cw dfb lasers for cpo/silicon photonics. And is embedded into hyperscaler supply chains like $AMZN and $MSFT clusters as the light source from captive models like $MRVL celestial from $POET and merchant models from Ayar. Then they’re up capacity through win qualification, so they don’t burn as much capex scaling in house. $IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains. They’re already a known $LITE supplier and the other biggest one is Landmark sitting around ~$4B (with less latent capacity). This is basically the equivalent of $IREN or $RIOT turning their Bitcoin miners into HPC, but for photonics. There’s a decent amount of debt, but this is more of a guess that their Taiwan sales will go through and management will pivot toward InP production for rerating. So those two are my favorites right now
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需求可见性清晰，半导体内存等供应链售罄至2028，策略是中期持有不看空。
总有一个牛市在某处。我通常善于早期发现它（例如2024年$ MSTR比特币减半领头羊），所以这并不总是适用于AI供应链。 但如果像$LITE这样的公司到2028年都售罄了，内存（memory）厂商到2028年都售罄了，怎么能看到熊市？ 会有短期波动，但考虑到这种需求可见性，除非发生重大宏观事件，否则很难看到中期回调。在那些情况下，如果基本面没有变化，只是流动性问题，那我就是持有。
英文原文
There’s always a bull market somewhere. I’m typically good at spotting it early (eg. 2024 was $MSTR Bitcoin halving frontrun) so doesn’t always apply to AI supply chains. But hard to see a bear market if companies like $LITE are sold out until 2028? And memory names are sold out until 2028? There’s short term volatility, but with that type of demand visibility, hard to see medium term drawdowns unless there’s a major macro event. And in those cases, if fundamentals don’t change and it’s just liquidity, then I’m a holder.
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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认为 SIVE 两年内到 110 亿美元市值完全有可能，市场尚未充分定价光子 TAM 的扩张。
@tweet_tj 对，我觉得 $SIVE 两年后到 110 亿美元市值完全有可能。我觉得市场还没有真正意识到，光子学接下来会出现多么巨大的 TAM 扩张。
英文原文
@tweet_tj Yep, I think $11B is definitely possible for $SIVE in two years. I feel like markets haven’t fully realized the massive TAM expansion that’s coming for photonics yet.
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说可以通过 IBKR 买入，自己直接市价买入，不太在意 1-2% 的成交价差。
@Davidson_august 对，可以通过 $IBKR 买入。他们的斯德哥尔摩行情数据有点卡。我自己就直接市价买，不太在意 1-2% 的限价成交差异，因为我本来就是看多的。
英文原文
@Davidson_august Yeah you can do it through $IBKR. Their Stockholm data feed is kinda buggy. I personally just did market buy whatever price, since I'm personally long. So didn't really care much about 1-2% limit fill differences.
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总结自己的研究流程：先发 thesis，再做跟进研究，最后在 thesis 兑现后庆祝并持有。
谢谢！ 我的风格通常是： -> 先发 thesis 帖 -> 再做后续研究（比如 $AXTI 的 7N 铟出口管制、瓶颈） -> thesis 兑现后再庆祝 如果之后也没什么新东西，就继续拿着。 市场里大部分钱，都是靠找出别人不知道的东西赚到的，所以我现在就是在继续做这类功课，尤其是 $SIVE。
英文原文
Thanks! My style is usually: -> Thesis post -> Follow up research (eg. $AXTI 7n indium export controls, bottleneck) -> Then celebration when thesis plays out And then just sitting on it (if there's nothing too new). Most of the money in markets is to be made finding out stuff others don't, so just doing some of that work now with $SIVE.
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认为 XLU 是一笔 boring 但很长周期的交易，自己会继续持有。
@Darkhawk720 @_stockResearch $XLU 没什么变化，它就是一笔无聊但多年的交易。所以我个人只是继续拿着仓位。
英文原文
@Darkhawk720 @_stockResearch Nothing's changed with $XLU, it's boring multi-year trade. So I'm personally just sitting on my positions.
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认为 NOK 的光子业务已经被市场知道，只是主业不在光子，所以热度不高。
@AlphaAllegro 我觉得 $NOK 现在已经被市场知道了，只是因为他们的核心业务不是光子，所以讨论得没那么多；不过从今天看，它对收入应该会有一点正面增量。 https://t.co/Hg3yrQivop
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@AlphaAllegro Think $NOK is known by now. It's just not talked about as much because their core business is not photonics and it feels like a slight revenue boost as of today. https://t.co/Hg3yrQivop
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把 LITE 的历史涨幅当作参照，认为 SIVE 也可能成为下一次架构转变中的上游激光瓶颈。
我是说，$LITE 从 17 美元涨到 709 美元？任何公司都得从某个地方开始。 我说的是这种轨迹，不是说明它明年就会到 500 亿美元市值。 但它们的位置很好：会成为下一次架构转变中的上游激光瓶颈，就像 $LITE 在当前 EML 周期里的角色一样。
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I mean $LITE went from $17 to $709? Every companies gotta start somewhere. Just the trajectory, definitely not $50B MC by next year. However, they're positioned well as the upstream laser bottleneck for the next architectural shift, similar to what $LITE is in current EML cycles.
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认为设备卖家也会受益，但不像使用这些设备的公司那样能从光子超级周期中获得同等价值。
对，我在研究把反应器改造成 InP epiwafer 相关产线的 $IQE 之后，对这些公司比较熟悉了。 我个人不太喜欢像 $AXIA 或 Oxford 这样的设备卖家。 它们当然会带来明显的营收加速，但它们并不会像真正使用这些设备的公司那样，从光子超级周期里拿到同等价值。 不过因为资本开支周期会带来实际的营收增长，所以这类标的对更偏风险厌恶的对冲基金来说也非常受欢迎。
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Yep! I'm familiar with them after doing DD on refactoring reactors for inp epiwafers $IQE. Personally not a fan of equipment sellers like $AXIA or Oxford. They have material revenue acceleration, but they don't really derive the same value from the photonics supercycle as the companies that use them do. However, given there is material revenue growth from capex cycles, it's very popular with hedge funds that are more risk-averse.
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指出在光子行业里，激光器才是真正瓶颈，尤其是 EML 产能和自有垂直整合带来的溢价。
你说下游公司通常拥有更强定价权，这点是对的。比如 $AAPL 卖 iPhone，比组装它的 Foxconn 赚得更多。 但在光子行业里，目前的瓶颈是激光器，而且激光器极其、极其值钱。 尤其是现在的 EML 产能，因为其他玩家像 Innolight / Eoptolink 之类做不了这部分。 这其实就是 $LITE 溢价的大部分来源，再加上他们自己激光器带来的 captive 垂直整合，服务于 OCS 和 1.6T。
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You're correct in saying downstream players typically have more pricing power. $AAPL for example, makes the most for selling the IPhone than Foxconn that assembles it. However, in photonics, lasers are the bottleneck currently and are extremely, extremely valuable. Especially EML capacity right now, since other players like Innolight/Eoptolink cannot do that. That's where most of $LITE's premiums come from actually + using their own lasers for captive vertical integration with OCS and 1.6T.
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
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All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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Sivers涨幅29%达2.82亿市值，作者认为其作为CPO/硅光子学上游激光供应商，是下一个LITE，尚未被市场定价。
Sivers今天又涨了29%，市值达到2.82亿美元。我真心认为$SIVE可能是下一个$LITE。因为他们被定位为下一代超大规模算力供应链接构的光源。当scale up-scale out架构转向共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)时——光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)的开端。那些从$POET和Ayar购买并封装其激光阵列/cw DFB激光(连续波分布反馈激光器)的公司——估值约10亿至40亿美元以上（不包括O-Net或未披露的公司）。在当前可插拔光收发器(Pluggable Transceiver)周期中：激光供应商通常比其购买光源的封装对手方获得更高的估值溢价。所以，我确实认为$SIVE在很大程度上被市场忽视，远未反映在股价中。（该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，仅供理解语境）：$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。他们是未来类似$COHR/$LITE的光源供应商，可能用于：- $AMZN Trainium集群- $MSFT Maia集群以及可能的其他超大规模算力商如$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。目前市值约2亿美元。关联映射（推测性）：$SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial内部供应）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ？亚洲超大规模算力商。持续进行中：$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU）。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（内部CPO）-> ?（$MSFT, $META历史上Wiwynn最大的客户）。由于类似$MRVL Celestial这样的内部供应模式，他们获得了免费搭乘。然而，他们确实在商业模式下与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI多源自ELS竞争，并与Ayar一起获胜。但无论哪种方式他们都能赢。对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行的Win半导体验证，但这可能是一个重要指标。再强调一下，供应链BOM（物料清单）是极其机密的。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们用$SIVE"。但如果你把1+1+1+1+1放在一起，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。大多数人看到"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE，或Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有映射所有多跳关系来看它们最终去向哪里。我确实认为$SIVE是一个非常未被发现的机遇，作为未来硅光子学领域可能的迷你版$LITE，当时市值2亿美元。作为未来CPO/硅光子学规模扩展的上游激光供应商，用于cw DFB激光器和激光阵列的超大规模算力供应链接构。
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Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today. I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE. As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains. When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics. For the start of next Photonics Supercycle. The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar? Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed). With current pluggable transceiver cycles: Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source. So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
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祝贺对方曾是 SIVE 的前 CEO，并表示很喜欢他们在硅光 / CPO 领域的成果。
@StormDirac 哇，你以前居然是 $SIVE 的 CEO，太酷了。 恭喜你把它做到了现在这个位置，我很喜欢他们在硅光 / CPO 领域做的事情。你一定也会为此感到很自豪！
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@StormDirac Wow super cool that you were the former CEO of $SIVE. Congrats on building it up to this position, I love what they’re doing in the space for silicon photonics/CPO. I know you must be feeling proud!
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澄清自己并没有持有 POET，也没写过它的 thesis。
@DocPod4 我不是 $POET 多头？我从来都没写过它的 thesis 帖。
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@DocPod4 I’m not long $POET? I’ve never made a thesis post on it.