· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AMD$INTC$SIVE$MTSI$LITE
回想 AMD 还是 3 美元一股的时候： 当时行业共识是，INTC 会把它留着，只是为了所谓的“垄断”目的，所以它不会被颠覆。 结果 AMD 最后涨了 66 倍，现在市值已经 3300 亿美元以上。 我在 $SIVE 身上也看到同样的东西。 你拿 140 亿美元市值的 Furukawa、190 亿的 $MTSI、550 亿的 $LITE 来比，说它们在位置上比 $SIVE 更好。 但市场实际上已经把这些差异充分体现在市值里了。 很多人没看懂的是：你面前有一家 3 亿美元出头的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL 的被动超大规模云供应链里。 再往下像 Ayar -> $JBL 这样的链条也是一样。 在 3 亿美元市值下，$SIVE 的上行空间巨大，而且风险已经被市场体现得很充分。
Back when $AMD was $3 a share: The industry consensus was $INTC was keeping them around just for "monopoly" purposes and they wouldn't be disrupted. $AMD went up 66 times and is now a $330B+ MC. Seeing the same thing with $SIVE. You're comparing $14B companies like Furukawa, $19B with $MTSI, $55B with $LITE and saying they have a better position than $SIVE. It's clearly reflected in the marketcap already. What people misunderstand is that you have a $300m company already designed into captive hyperscaler supply chains in $MRVL. Then ones like Ayar -> $JBL... At a $300m MC. Upside on $SIVE is enormous here, and the risk is reflected in the MC.