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调侃自己买波士顿动力、上市封闭基金再ATM融资。
回复 @offermemoneyXYZ：也许是时候让我买500万美元的 Boston Dynamics。 把我的封闭式基金在 NASDAQ 上市？ 然后通过有效 ATM 融资10亿美元？
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Maybe it’s time for me to buy $5m worth of Boston dynamics. List my closed end fund on NASDAQ? Then raise $1B off an effective ATM?
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批评BOT仍以4倍NAV交易且有20亿美元有效ATM，Figure敞口估值过高。
$BOT 即使下跌21%后，仍以4倍 NAV 交易。 还有20亿美元有效 ATM。 所以现在它基于1.46亿美元私人资产，市值约6亿美元。 在这些资产中，它们持有约3700万美元 Figure。 而你本质上是在以1600亿美元估值买 Figure，尽管领先人形机器人制造商 Unitree IPO 估值只有60亿美元。 所以，仅仅因为一个1.46亿美元私人基金上市，并不意味着应该发生数十亿美元散户财富转移？ 也许基金有良好意图？ 但在20亿美元股权融资工具之后，当已经存在估值/NAV 断层时，这个举动看起来很掠夺。
英文原文
$BOT is still trading at 4x NAV. With a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM. Even after the 21% drop. So now it’s ~$600M MC, off $146M in private assets. Then off those assets, they own ~$37M of Figure. Which you’re essentially buying at $160B valuations while the leading humanoid maker in Unitree is IPOing at $6B. So just because a $146m private fund went public doesn’t mean there should be a multi-billion dollar retail wealth transfer? Maybe the fund had good intentions? But idk after the $2B equity financing facility, that move just seems predatory when there’s already a valuation NAV disconnect.
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AI板块从NBIS到LITE/AAOI出现普通周一回调。
AI 领域从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 再到 $AAOI，只是普通周一回调？
英文原文
Just your normal Monday correction in the AI space from $NBIS to $LITE to $AAOI? https://t.co/5g3HCAlcA4
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越频繁谈某主题，通常说明越认为它当前未知或低估。
回复 @johnoao：我越多谈某件事……通常说明我越认为它在当前时间框架中未知/低估。 不过它们方向上结果都不错？比如去年底以来的 $LITE、$AXTI、$AAOI、$NBIS。
英文原文
@johnoao The more I talk about something… generally the more I think it’s unknown/underpriced in current timeframes. They all have turned out well directionally though? Like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, $NBIS from late last year.
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仅分享链接。
仅分享了一个链接。
英文原文
@JJJJJ_66666 https://t.co/G4LL6RqKFc
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预计明年会有很多关于FAU和组件瓶颈的文章，FOCI/Nextronics等会处于中心。
明年……我预计会有很多关于 FAU + 组件瓶颈的文章。 尤其是随着 $NVDA + $TSM 领导的新 CPO 架构开始放量。 然后今天我提到的 FOCI（约28亿美元市值）或 Nextronics（约2.46亿美元市值）等很多名字会处于中心。 尽管其中很多被贴上“商品”标签……（看看变压器/NAND）。 到时我会像 $AXTI 一样发一条“你听了吗，朋友”。 我们看看这是否正确。
英文原文
Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks. Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVDA + $TSM starts to scale. Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it. Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND) And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXTI. We’ll see if this is right.
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批评POET和IREN靠营销、稀释散户囤现金，获得“假装直到成功”奖。
$POET 和 $IREN 字面上都赢得了“Fake it Until you make it”奖。 -> 通过网红进行灰色地带的无尽垃圾营销。 -> 稀释散户到足以囤积大量现金。 -> 现金设定了市值底线。 现在 $POET 在4亿美元私募后，可能有约8.3亿美元纯现金来自稀释。 而它去年市值还低于5亿美元。
英文原文
$POET and $IREN literally both won the Fake it Until you make it award. -> Grey area endless marketing of crap through influencers. -> Diluted retail enough to hoard tons of cash -> Cash is sets baseline Market Cap. Now $POET probably has around $830M pure cash from dilution after $400m private placement. While their marketcap was sitting under $500m last year.
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简短回复：99%的人。
回复 @AlSavvy94：99%的人。
英文原文
@AlSavvy94 99% of people https://t.co/JpEWDysDA5
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称自己点出AI供应链国家级漏洞并做多AXTI，6个月后进入白宫短缺名单和中美贸易谈判。
我字面上点出了 AI 供应链中的国家级漏洞。 然后做多了 $AXTI 这个准垄断。 当时所有人都在质疑我。 猜怎么着，朋友：6个月后，它出现在白宫短缺清单上，并成为美中贸易谈判的主要议题之一。
英文原文
I literally called out a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain. Then went long on the quasi-monopoly in $AXTI. While everyone was doubting me. Guess what anon: it’s on the White House shortage list and one of the major talking points of US-China trade talks 6M later. https://t.co/mVX0vJ5EuD
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日文：更喜欢寿司郎大肥金枪鱼，也觉得特朗普买Kura有趣。
回复 @RealtyPnw：寿司郎的大肥金枪鱼好吃得多，所以我一直是寿司郎派，而不是 $KRUS（Kura Sushi）派。 不过，看到 Donald Trump 买入一家在美国受欢迎的日本寿司连锁的大额股权，还是挺有趣。
英文原文
@RealtyPnw スシローの大トロの方がずっと美味しいので、私はいつも $KRUS（くら寿司）よりもスシロー派でした。 それにしても、ドナルド・トランプがアメリカで人気の日本の寿司チェーンの経営権を買収しているのを見るのは、やっぱりなんだか面白いですね。
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无KRUS持仓，但称其是较好的餐饮股之一。
回复 @Mr_Derivatives：我没有 $KRUS 持仓，但有趣的是，它是比较好的餐饮名字之一。 在 $AAPL 总部附近 Cupertino 那家总是排1小时队。
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives I have no positions in $KRUS but it's one of the better restaurant names hilariously enough. There's always a 1 hour line in the Cupertino one near $AAPL HQ.
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调侃特朗普大额持有Kura Sushi。
Donald Trump 显然做多寿司。 我真觉得总统持有 Kura Sushi（$KRUS，约6亿美元市值）很大比例股权这件事很好笑。 在从 $AVGO 到 $NVDA 的所有东西中。 如果 Trump 真的买了500万美元，他将持有我最喜欢的美国寿司连锁之一约0.8%。 我没有开放仓位……但我喜欢总统买下寿司餐厅这个想法。
英文原文
Donald Trump is apparently long Sushi. I genuinely find it hilarious the President took a large % ownership of Kura Sushi ( $KRUS, ~$600m MC). Among everything from $AVGO to $NVDA. If Trump did buy $5M worth, the president would own close to ~.8% of one of my favorite US Sushi Chains. Don't have any open positions... but I do love the idea of our President buying up Sushi restaurants.
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称Cupertino Kura Sushi很受欢迎，并同意特朗普逢低买入愿景。
它真的很受欢迎，我以前常去 $AAPL 总部附近的加州 Cupertino 那家，总是排1小时队。 听说它们在 Berkeley 等地也开了一些……所以我确实同意 Trump 认为这里是不错逢低买入点的愿景。 也许他退休后想接管并经营一家寿司餐厅？
英文原文
It's really popular, I used to go to the CA Cupertino near $AAPL HQ and there was always a 1 hour line. Heard they opened some up around Berkeley and others... so I do agree with Trump's vision of it being a good dip buy around here. Maybe after he retires, he wants to taken over and run a sushi restaurant?
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多数散户不读文件或理解封闭基金结构，以为买Figure却忽略高估和稀释。
回复 @amitisinvesting：是的，大多数散户不读文件，也不理解封闭式基金结构。 所以他们只是以为自己在买 Figure，却不是以极度膨胀估值买入，同时还有稀释。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Yeah majority of retail don't read filings or understand closed end fund structures. So they just think they're buying into Figure, but not at extremely inflated valuations while there's dilution.
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称AI账号开始编造假简历。
回复 @Glitch_Trades：现在还有这些 AI 账号在编造假简历。
英文原文
@Glitch_Trades I have all these AI accounts making up fake resumes too now. https://t.co/HVDolqUts6
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只是发了一个 @kingcoinmatt 链接
@kingcoinmatt https://t.co/8UpvMJkqsa
英文原文
@kingcoinmatt https://t.co/8UpvMJkqsa
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吐槽外行把无关术语硬塞进财报讨论
因为有人总在我自己的名字旁边，比如在 $TSEM 业绩里乱评论 $SOI。然后还扔进像 m7u 这种和他们预付款完全无关的东西。类似帖子有五六条，真的要把我逼疯了。要是拿 $IQE / Landmark 的业绩这么搞还说得过去，但这算什么。
英文原文
because I have people backseat commenting my own names like $SOI on $TSEM earnings. Then throwing in random crap like m7u with it that's not even related to their prepayment. There was like 5 different posts like that. I'm going insane. It's understandable if you do it with $IQE / Landmark earnings, but wtf.
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批评伪专家只会堆术语不懂底层技术
我百分之百确定，如果现实里见到你们这些“photonic memory（光子内存）”专家，500 个里有 498 个都讲不清 CXL 内存池化、KV cache 基础设施，以及 $PENG 到底是怎么从中变现的。 这就是为什么我现在时间线上总能看到一堆和技术无关的 $RKLB、$HIMS，或者非技术型 AI 专家。 你们在我的帖子下面胡乱评论，把 M7U MOCVD capex 和 $TSEM 这些完全不相关的东西说错，或者把每个术语都混成像 $SMCI 集成商那样，还硬往 photonics IP 上套。 然后就在我每条帖子下面塞满 buzzword。
英文原文
I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.
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反驳用 SpaceX 高增长去硬套离谱估值
这和我跟 $VCX 争论时遇到的论点一样：有人说因为 SpaceX 增长很快，所以应该值 30 万亿美元，而 $META 才 1.4 万亿美元。 你完全可以通过 Hiive 或其他方式买入，而不是一边付 5 倍溢价，一边还要承受 20 亿美元的稀释，在这么小的 NAV 上继续被摊薄。
英文原文
This is the same at argument I got with $VCX with people telling me SpaceX should trade at $30T because of how fast they’re growing while $META trades at $1.4T. You can just buy it Hiive or other methods without paying 5X premiums… on top of getting diluted $2B off such a small NAV
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提醒大家别忽略 SEC 文件和封闭式基金结构
问题在于，很多散户根本不读 SEC 文件。 更别说理解封闭式基金里的 NAV 差异和流通盘动态…… 所以他们可能以为自己是在按当前价格买 Figure，实际上买到的可能是 5 倍以上的另一种价格，而你还在承受 20 亿美元的稀释。
英文原文
@dweltrowskik The issue is not many retail investors read SEC filings. Let alone know the NAV difference + float dynamics with closed end funds… So they might just think they’re buying Figure at current prices. Rather than 5x+ current ones. While you’re getting diluted $2B
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质疑 Figure 的估值能否对标更大的独角兽
Unitree 这家领先的人形机器人公司估值 60 亿美元就要 IPO，你却说 Figure 大概值 2000 亿美元，笑死。
英文原文
@NicholasBardy Unitree, the leading humanoid maker, is IPOing at $6B valuation and you’re saying Figure is probably worth $200B lol
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批评高估值浮筹和持续稀释
@AlanSmith838 我真不明白，为什么有人会在这个估值上买这种“更傻的人接盘”式的庞氏浮筹。 同时还有 20 亿美元的缓慢稀释。 这类基金的想法也许是好的，老板们可能起初也有善意。 但现在它已经完全跑偏了。
英文原文
@AlanSmith838 I genuinely don't understand why people would just buy a greater fools theory pyramid scheme float at this valuation. While there's $2B slow drip dilution. The idea of funds like these are good. Maybe the owners had good intention. But right now it's driven way off course.
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指出 BOT 的 NAV 与股价严重脱节
$BOT 是最明显的红旗。 NAV 是每股 7.34 美元，而现在股价是 37.92 美元。 你基本上是在按 2000 亿美元以上的估值买 Figure，而它自己只值 390 亿美元。 买这个公司，本质上是在买别人的浮筹博弈，而不是买成长或基本面。 更糟的是，还有 20 亿美元的稀释在继续发生，等于是大家被一路稀释到看不见。 很多基金经理会私信像我这样的意见领袖，但现实里： 散户看起来就是退出流动性。
英文原文
$BOT is the biggest red flag. NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92. You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B. Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail. Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals. To make matters worse: There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion. I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality: Retail just looks like exit liquidity.
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发了一个“来了”的预告链接
@softmaxedx 来了 https://t.co/U9FrBrG3gq
英文原文
@softmaxedx Incoming https://t.co/U9FrBrG3gq
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随口聊买 SF 广告牌空间做趣味内容
现在 X 上很多人都在聊 AI / 初创公司广告牌。 随手一想：我是不是也可以买一堆旧金山的 billboard 空间来玩？ 不过不放像 $NBIS（照片不是我拍的）那种内容…… 我只是想放点跟 X 有关的有趣东西？ 听起来其实也不贵。 https://t.co/jTPanYy1V3
英文原文
Lot of people on X are talking about AI/startup billboards. Just a shower thought: Can’t I just buy a bunch of SF billboard space for fun? But instead of something like $NBIS (not my photo btw)…. I just put something fun related to X? Apparently it’s not expensive. https://t.co/jTPanYy1V3
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解释 photonic memory 其实是整机集成层逻辑
@vz921 他们 P/S 低，是因为本质上就是 $SMCI、$DELL、$FLNC 这一类集成商。 他们只是把 photonic memory 当作核心部件装进整机里，再拿它去和真正拥有核心半导体 IP 的公司对比。 X 上到处都是这种说法，真的很烦。 https://t.co/PyqMGpZZHX
英文原文
@vz921 They have low P/S ratios because it's an $SMCI $DELL $FLNC type integrator. Then they just throw in photonic memory when they build the appliance around it, then compare it to core semiconductor IP holders. It's annoying seeing stuff like this all over X. https://t.co/PyqMGpZZHX
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强调他们做的是围绕 photonic memory 的机箱/外壳
@chucktheeegreat 就是所有人。 他们做的是围绕 photonic memory 公司的机箱/外壳。 你们全在胡闹。 https://t.co/kyJcrw2Hg9
英文原文
@chucktheeegreat Literally everyone. They make the chassis around photonic memory companies. You all are trolling. https://t.co/kyJcrw2Hg9
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区分 PENG 的整机层与真正的光子内核 IP
说得很细。买 $PENG 去押 $MRVL 的“photonic memory”大概率会失望。 他们更像是 $SMCI 那一层的集成商，外加一些潜在的软件增值。 高毛利、真正的基础 IP 属于 Celestial 或 Lightmatter 这类公司。 他们做的是在机架里围绕 Celestial / Marvell 的 photonic memory IP 搭一个 2U 盒子。 这也还处在联合开发阶段。 散户只是把这些层级全搞混了，以为这家公司在做核心 photonic memory IP。 我不是在评论股价会不会涨，只是说它的基础业务确实有意义；如果能越过 sampling，向上的弹性会很大。 只是每次看到别人把“PHOTONIC MEMORY”挂在嘴边就很烦。 他们做的其实只是放核心 IP 的机箱，连 qualification 都还没到。
英文原文
Very nuanced. People buying $PENG for $MRVL "photonic memory" are likely to be disappointed. They're on the $SMCI integrator level with potential software add. The high margin, foundational IP belongs to companies like Celestial or others like Lightmatter. What they do is build a 2U box, inside the rack, around Celestial/Marvell's the photonic memory IP. It's also in the development collaboration stage. Retail just misunderstand the different layers and conflate them all as this company building core photonic memory IP. Not commenting on the potential price, but it's a legitimate idea for its base business. And upside would be material if they go past sampling. Just annoying when I get comments about "PHOTONIC MEMORY". Then they're building the chassis that the actual photonic memory IP sits inside and not even in qualification stage.
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强调前瞻跟踪比看 13F 更有用
我不太明白为什么大家要把 13F 文件看得那么深，而很多对冲基金在像 $JBL、$LITE 这些名字上都已经慢半拍了。 最好的收益来自在机构意识到下一个 $SNDK 之前就先买进去。 不是等他们在 3 个月后披露完再跟。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others. The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file.
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夸了一张 AI 生成图
@StormDirac 哇，这张 AI 生成图真的很酷
英文原文
@StormDirac Woah that's a really cool AI gen image