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记录博通财报电话会与网络/互连长期机会。
关于 $AVGO 财报电话会的一些随手笔记： - 重申收入目标（2027年1000亿美元以上，我很确定市场原本希望这次财报上调这个目标，所以股价下跌）。 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋关于 $MRVL 围绕网络/连接/互连成为1万亿美元公司的评论吗？ - ……
英文原文
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - https://t.co/JRiucvNnqc
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认为EU政策框架给欧洲光子学玩家长期结构性顺风。
回复 @spring_grandpa：这是欧洲光子学玩家的结构性长期顺风，因为它是一个监管框架。 现在光子学已经成为政府政策新的关键部分。 这不是一天暴涨的催化，可能需要等几个月，让具体公司在其中被点名。
英文原文
@spring_grandpa It's a structural long term tailwind for EU photonic players since its a regulatory framework. Now that photonics is a new critical part of gov policy. Not a massive one-day spike, would need to wait maybe a few months for individual companies to get namedropped for that.
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认为量子仍较远，重点不如光子学/AI。
回复 @baxur100：是的，我看到量子和光子学/AI 一起被点名了。 我个人认为量子行业仍然有点太远，富士康说商业化要到2030年。 所以即使量子玩家获得资金，我个人也不会太关注这个领域，除了也许 Riber 那次下跌……
英文原文
@baxur100 Yeah, I saw Quantum namedropped, alongside photonics/AI. Personally I think quantum sector is still a bit far out, Foxconn said commercialization was 2030. So even if quantum players get funding, I'm personally not too focused on that area aside from maybe Riber that dip in https://t.co/TATnouUHrr
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称欧洲应强化细分垄断和主权供应链韧性。
回复 @BilalElmou89932：欧洲在 AI 竞赛中没有机会与美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的细分垄断/瓶颈，以及主权供应链韧性。 不过我认为他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键。
英文原文
@BilalElmou89932 Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho.
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EU CHIPS Act 2.0将光子学纳入政策，利好欧洲光子学。
欧盟 CHIPS Act 2.0 提案已经发布。 好消息：光子学现在被确认成为欧盟政策新的结构性增量。 这在主题上利好欧洲光子学行业。 从主题角度看： - “欧洲芯片倡议的新组成部分支持……”
英文原文
EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the https://t.co/BAqp80WDAV
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称CHIPS Act 2影响分析可作为供应链研究资料。
老实说，CHIPS Act 2 的供应链研究有点神。 因为如果你看他们的影响分析，欧盟政府已经替你做了很多工作。 他们会提到 TOWA 这类名字，“在模塑和密封系统中占61%”。 然后还会拆解 $ONTO、$BESI 等公司的控制环节。
英文原文
Honestly CHIPS ACT 2 supply chain research is kinda goated. since its done for you by the EU government if you go through their impact analysis. They mention names like TOWA "61% in moulding and sealing systems" Then breakdown of control like $ONTO, $BESI, etc. https://t.co/XRREGsEw0E
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指出CHIPS Act 2加入光子学，XFAB在部分报告中被提及。
回复 @laadred：不是，是因为 CHIPS Act 2 刚刚发布，而且加入了光子学。 “将光子学和光子集成电路纳入强化版欧洲芯片倡议2.0。” $XFAB 在一些报告中被提到。文件太长了，我现在还在逐步看完。
英文原文
@laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now. https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8
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注意到XFAB突然上涨并准备查会议记录。
回复 @KayEffGeee：$XFAB 突然涨了7%，我想知道那里是否有提到它。我现在去看会议记录。
英文原文
@KayEffGeee $XFAB suddenly rose 7%, I wonder if there was any mention there. I'll go through transcripts now.
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对比NASDAQ与欧股上市估值，认为XFAB被低估。
NASDAQ 和欧洲上市之间的差异： $POET：24亿美元市值 -> 封装 Sivers 激光器 -> 一个5000万美元预生产合同换认股权证 > $XFAB：17亿美元市值 -> SiC/GaN/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受到 EU CHIPS Act 和 US CHIPS Act PMT 支持 -> 低于重置市净率价值 -> ……
英文原文
The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value ->
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称距离超过马斯克成为X订阅最多账号只差1000人。
哇，只差1000名订阅者我就超过埃隆·马斯克了！ 我现在是4.6万，马斯克是4.7万。 然后我就会成为整个 X 平台订阅人数第一的人？ 真有趣的时间线。
英文原文
Wow, only 1K more subscribers until I overtake Elon Musk! Right now I’m at 46K. Elon is at 47K. Then I’ll hold the crown of the #1 most subscribed to person on the entire X platform? What a fun timeline. https://t.co/sG5xJe9bMY
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称NBIS在暴跌后表现不错。
回复 @EestiRadar：很高兴 $NBIS 最终表现不错，业绩大超预期后那段回撤确实很残酷。
英文原文
@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.
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没预期英伟达今年入股Marvell，但看好其ASIC/连接收入机会。
回复 @WEB3_furture：好文章！我其实没想到 $NVDA 今年会与 $MRVL 合作并入股。 但无论如何，我本来就预计 Marvell 会因为即将到来的 ASIC/连接收入机会而成为一个有吸引力的想法。
英文原文
@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.
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比较Neocloud公司融资结构：NBIS优于CRWV和IREN。
回复 @BKCY314：融资结构差异非常大，$CRWV 正被债务利息活活吞噬。 $IREN 因为过度 ATM，股权增值很少。 $NBIS 刚刚好，而且还有来自 Avride 子公司和 ClickHouse 持股的分部估值。
英文原文
@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
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复盘NBIS作为最高信念Neocloud选择从84涨到260。
看到我最高信念的 Neocloud 选择 $NBIS 走得很好，很有意思。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 行业将成为重大主题的论点。 然后选出了王者。 -> Nebius 在整个行业里排名第一，从 $IREN 到 $CRWV 都不如它。 84美元 -> 260美元。 论点被市场验证。
英文原文
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
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认为SIVE空头可能加仓，但会随更多公告被击垮。
回复 @Jayden11129225：可能有活跃空头正在加倍做空 $SIVE。我预计他们随着时间会被打爆。 尤其是在更多公告出来后。 如果再有一个类似 $JBL 的惊喜公告，比如和 Innolight 这样的人合作，会很有意思。 因为 Sivers 正在共同开发/认证……
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@Jayden11129225 There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with
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说明讨论的是ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO生态伙伴而非英伟达自身。
回复 @siflower：那是 $NVDA 直接相关。我说的是 ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO 生态伙伴。 在这些伙伴里，$SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
英文原文
@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.
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通过Ayar投资关系推导SIVE在CPO供应链中的确认。
回复 @Uri62223094：这是供应链确认。我知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资者，所以我会假设他们想要某种类似 NVLink 生态的战略合作。 $AMD 也投资了 Ayar，所以 $AMD 选择 $GFS 做 CPO，也让人能通过 Ayar 把1+1和 $SIVE 连起来。 联发科和 $INTC……
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@Uri62223094 its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC
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认为NVDA CPO生态第一代可能大量以SIVE为主供。
回复 @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong：Celestial 和 Lightmatter 尝试多源采购是预期之内。 但我猜第一代里，$NVDA CPO NVLink 生态很多会由 $SIVE 单一供应/主供应。 英伟达自己也有与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的项目。
英文原文
@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.
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认为SIVE若当前估值60-80亿美元也不意外，纳斯达克上市可缩小折价。
回复 @MindQuest42：如果 $SIVE 今天以60-80亿美元估值交易，我不会惊讶。 话虽如此，它仍然在瑞典交易所上市，但纳斯达克上市应该会缩小这个差距。
英文原文
@MindQuest42 If $SIVE were trading at $6-8B valuations today, I wouldn't be surprised. That being said, its still on a Swedish exchange, but NASDAQ listing should close the gap.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
英文原文
@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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称Ayar加入NVLink Fusion后，SIVE可能成为整个NVLink CPO生态激光源。
猜猜看，朋友？ 在今天 Ayar 加入 Nvidia NVLink Fusion 的新消息之后。 $SIVE 现在很可能成为： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 已列供应链生态伙伴的激光源。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天的 Ayar（三个都列在 NVLink……）
英文原文
GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink https://t.co/DAlXSOpMYH
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暗示某光子学公司成为NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO生态上游激光瓶颈。
哇……今天发布了一个极具转折意义的新消息。 这让某家光子学公司成为： $NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO 生态的事实上的上游激光瓶颈。 它们的激光器现在进入了 Nvidia 的光基础设施供应链。 有人能猜到名字吗？
英文原文
Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name?
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称早已完成存储DD，EWY多头上涨480%验证论点。
回复 @LLTHTRS：我今年早些时候已经完成了所有关于存储的尽调。 我现在只是让自己的论点被验证，就像我的 $EWY 多头已经上涨480%一样。
英文原文
@LLTHTRS I did all my DD on memory earlier this year. I’m just letting my thesis get validated like my $EWY longs which are up 480%.
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称当天SIVE有比EU CHIPS Act更重大的新闻。
回复 @ConfusedNDazzed：今天 $SIVE 实际上有比 EU CHIPS Act 政策框架公告更大的新闻。
英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed There's actually even bigger news for $SIVE today than the EU CHIPS Act policy framework announcements.
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
英文原文
@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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欧洲技术主权包和CHIPS Act 2.0突出光子学，利好XFAB/SIVE。
欧洲将在今天6月3日发布技术主权一揽子计划。 其中包括 CHIPS Act 2.0，预计会优先考虑光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 都在指导欧盟立法的产业政策蓝图中被重点提及。 这提出了主权支持……
英文原文
Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing https://t.co/WWBlo5o1tL
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祝贺Ayar与英伟达相关进展。
回复 @AyarLabs @nvidia：恭喜！对 Ayar 来说是个好消息。
英文原文
@AyarLabs @nvidia Congrats! Great news for Ayar.
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预计物理AI未来3-4年开始扩张，10年内替代大量工作。
回复 @joestar1402：嗯，物理 AI 建设可能在未来3-4年开始扩张？然后再给它10年，实现大部分替代。 自动驾驶汽车会替代很多出租车/Uber 司机。 人形机器人/机器人会替代很多工厂或体力工作。 等等……专业岗位也会……
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@joestar1402 Eh next 3-4 years for physical AI buildout to start scaling? Then give it 10 years for majority displacement. Self driving cars are going to displace a lot of taxi/uber drivers. Humanoids/robotics replacing a lot of factory or manual work. And so on… speciality jobs will
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担忧下一代因AI、住房和通胀被困在底层。
下一代的大多数人会被困在永久底层吗？ > 今天错过了通过拥有基础设施/算力来控制 AI 的机会 > 大多数工作会被 AI 替代 > 住房更贵 > 通胀让生活成本一路飙升 GG？
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Is majority of the next generation stuck in the permanent underclass? > Missed out on gaining control of AI through ownership of infra/compute today > Majority of jobs getting replaced by AI > Housing more expensive > Inflation makes cost of living go brrr. Gg?
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称自己可同时跟踪约40个资产，依赖强数据记忆。
回复 @lilpeterlynch：是的，现在大概40个左右？我对某些数据点或新闻几乎有照相式记忆，所以能同时跟踪很多资产。
英文原文
@lilpeterlynch Yeah round ~40 now? I have near photographic memory when it comes to certain data points or news, so I’m able to track a lot of assets concurrently