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中国掌握人形机器人量产关键牌，美国应加大主权稀土供应链投资。
谁能想到中国在人形机器人量产上握着所有牌？ 如果美国真的看好 $TSLA 或 Figure 机器人计划的未来。 也许是时候开始向主权稀土供应链投入更多资金了。 我们现在做的还不够。
英文原文
Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production? Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs. Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains. Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough. https://t.co/VQXh9otLMi
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Apple Watch 2026下半年健康监测升级或用TASC光电二极管，后续无创血糖监测可能关联SIVE激光。
这只是对时间线的确认： 2026年下半年是高端 Apple Watch 的“重大重新设计”，用于血压相关功能，使用 TASC 光电二极管（2340）。 下一部分可能是 $SIVE 与 $AAPL 的项目： “此后，Apple 的下一项健康监测能力预计将聚焦无创血糖监测。” 所以……下一轮更新很可能是 Sivers 的高度定制激光，也许在2027年下半年或2028年。 仍然有点早，但如果时间线/含义保持完整，市场可能会重视 Apple 带来的多年收入可见度。
英文原文
This is just confirmation on timelines: H2 2026 is the "major redesign of high end Apple Watches" for blood pressure related stuff using TASC photodiodes(2340). This next part is $SIVE likely project with $AAPL: "After this, Apple's next health monitoring capabilities are expected to focus on noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring." So.. the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028. Still a bit early, but if timeline/implications are in tact, markets might appreciate multi-year revenue visibility with Apple.
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TASC 2340可能是高端Apple Watch新供应商。
5亿美元市值的 $AAPL 供应商，很可能是新款高端 Apple Watch 的主要来源： 如果有人想看或好奇，TASC（2340）。我大概会跳过，但这里可能有些有趣东西。
英文原文
$500m $AAPL supplier likely primary source for their new high end apple watches: TASC (2340) if people wanted to take a look or were curious. I'm prob passing, but could be something interesting here https://t.co/lE6iyswXyT
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梳理玻璃基板光刻胶、ABF瓶颈和关键矿物供应链。
一些随机笔记： 关于玻璃基板：“YC Chem 据称成为业内首家供应玻璃基板光刻胶的公司”（KR 112290）。 - 目标年底量产，通常量产 + 首发对股价有利。 “目前正与三家以上公司洽谈玻璃基板材料供应”，所以还有更多认证。 “Samyang NC Chem 也在开发玻璃基板光刻胶材料”（482630）。 - 正在送样，明年量产，是另一个玻璃基板名字。 “$NVDA 可能通过长期协议、预付款或战略合作提前锁定高端基板产能，目标是避免 CoWoS 和 HBM 过去出现的供应限制重演。”这与 $TSM COUPE 基板有关。 “Commercial Times 强调，AI GPU、ASIC 和 CPO 需求可能在2027年前触发另一轮高端 ABF 基板短缺。” 所以还有更多基板瓶颈。 另外还有：“中国同意解决美国对稀土和关键矿物短缺的担忧，特别是钇、钪、钕和铟。” 如果你想找多头想法，可以研究钇、钪、钕和铟供应链。 现在一切都在回调，但如果你对更多随机想法感兴趣，这是值得关注的东西。
英文原文
Just some random notes: For glass substrates: "YC Chem has reportedly become the first in the industry to supply photoresists for glass substrates" (KR 112290) - targeting EOY mass production, usually mass production + first to market is good for stock prices. "is currently in discussions with more than three companies regarding the supply of glass substrate materials" so more qualifications. "Samyang NC Chem is also developing photoresist materials for glass substrates" (482630) - Sampling, mass production next year another glass substrate name " $NVDA may seek to secure high-end substrate capacity in advance through long-term agreements, prepayments, or strategic partnerships, aiming to avoid a repeat of the supply constraints previously seen in CoWoS and HBM." This is in relation to $TSM COUPE on Substrate. "As Commercial Times highlights, demand from AI GPUs, ASICs, and CPO could trigger another supply shortage of high-end ABF substrates by 2027." So more substrate bottleneck stuff. Then there's: "China's agreement to address US concerns over rare earth and critical mineral shortages specifically yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium" So good to look into yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium supply chains if you want long ideas. Everything is kinda correcting right now, but just something to keep a lookout for if ur interested in more random ideas.
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批评过度ATM被披露后仍由人推广散户买入，像合法化盗窃。
回复 @pepemoonboy：对它们每一个来说，这几乎像合法化盗窃，因为过度 ATM 已经披露，然后某人还推广散户买入。 到目前为止，除其中一个外，它们最后都崩了99%。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Almost like legalized theft for each of them because the excessive ATMs are disclosed then a certain someone promotes retail to buy into them. They all ended up crashing 99% aside from one of them so far.
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不看好IREN，因过度有毒稀释结构限制上行，AAOI同期回报更高。
回复 @IggyPacoRico1：我看不到今天做多 $IREN 的理由，因为过度且有毒的稀释结构从结构上限制了上行。 同一时期 $IREN 持平到负收益，而 $AAOI 本可以带来300%+回报。
英文原文
@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures. $AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.
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对比NBIS、AEHR和IREN走势，强调IREN表现较差。
回复 @ryansfinance：我觉得你忘了 $NBIS 从90美元 -> 235美元 -> 180美元。 $AEHR 从25美元 -> 110美元 -> 77美元。 而 $IREN 从45美元 -> 70美元 -> 45美元。
英文原文
@ryansfinance Think you’re forgetting $NBIS went from $90 -> $235 -> $180. $AEHR went from $25 -> $110 -> $77 While $IREN went from $45 -> $70 -> $45
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长文批评IREN无限ATM和营销式融资，认为NBIS才是更好Neocloud。
$IREN 从70美元跌回46美元，跌幅34%。 我想知道 X 上最蠢的社区之一终于学会阅读了吗？ $NBIS 客观上是更好的 Neocloud，并且有真正融资。 -> Nvidia 根本没有资助 $IREN。他们得到的是免费采购协议，让 IREN 使用他们的 logo 并通过稀释来买 GPU。 $NVDA 实际上给了 $NBIS 资本。 -> $IREN 面临像 $BKKT、$ASST、$SLNH 一样无休止稀释，散户财富通过60亿美元 ATM 转移过去，而所谓“5GW 产能”护城河在缩小。 $NBIS 实际使用的是让股权增值的融资结构。 这反映在两者年初至今的差异中。 我去年也说过同样的话。一个上涨约100%。 另一个持平，甚至根据入场点可能是负收益。 IREN 到现在字面上就是一家营销公司，因为它们能说服散户把资本通过财富转移交过去。
英文原文
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
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称冒充/诈骗账号无法被封，系统有问题。
回复 @natstewart5：这太搞笑了，这些冒充/诈骗账号字面上就是封不掉。 我真心觉得系统有问题。
英文原文
@natstewart5 This is hilarious, these imposter/scammer accounts literally cannot get banned. I genuinely think there's something wrong with the system. https://t.co/MUVmKDvvtM
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承认1.8k订阅的账号是秘密账号，其余不用。
回复 @_king142：那个有1.8k订阅的其实是我的秘密账号，哈哈。 除此之外我不用其他账号。
英文原文
@_king142 the one with 1.8k subscribers was actually my secret account lol. but aside from that i dont use anything else.
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称每条帖子都要隐藏20-30条垃圾评论。
回复 @Blinklebloop：是的，现在我每条帖子字面上都必须隐藏20-30条这种评论。
英文原文
@Blinklebloop Yes I literally have to hide 20-30 of those comments every single post of mine nowadays. https://t.co/JleOUL6dCj
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吐槽某内容离谱。
回复 @Chewbaccer444：这到底是什么鬼？
英文原文
@Chewbaccer444 like wtf is this https://t.co/iaukkIqy9o
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批评X允许大量诈骗/冒充账号存在，举报还会给主号增加曝光。
为什么这么多大型诈骗/冒充账号能在 X 上存在？ 它们只是复制你的用户名，拉黑原作者让你找不到它们，然后为主账号操纵算法。 任何偶然浏览都会给它们主账号带来算法加权。 这是双输局面。 你举报它们，X 似乎不在乎。 你举报它们，它们的主账号获得更多曝光。
英文原文
How are so many of these large scamming/impersonator accounts allowed to exist on X? They just copy your username, block the original author so you can't find them, then manipulate the algorithm for their main accounts. Then any accidental view algorithm boosts their main account. It's a lose lose situation. You report them, X doesn't seem to care. You report them, their main account gets more impressions.
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仅分享链接。
仅分享了一个链接。
英文原文
https://t.co/IJPmDDBHcq
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短期要关注流通盘动态，但多数人不用太在意。
回复 @marketsjoe：谢谢来源！始终了解短期时间框架内流通盘动态是好事。 不过绝大多数人不需要在意。
英文原文
@marketsjoe Thanks for the source! Always good to be aware of what’s going on with float dynamics on short term timeframes. Vast majority of people don’t need to care though.
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补充说明是自由流通股比例。
回复 @tomhou101：是自由流通股。
英文原文
@tomhou101 Of free float.
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瑞典本地基金做空SIVE亏损严重。
回复 @KeriaFX：是的，它们因为做空 $SIVE 损失了基金价值的很大一部分。 我不认为这对瑞典本地公司会有好结果？它们本可以旁观，却在做空自己的前沿公司，哈哈。
英文原文
@KeriaFX Yeah they lost a large part of their fund value shorting $SIVE. I don't think it's going to end well for local Swedish firms? Like they can just stay on the sideline but they're shorting their own frontier firms lol. https://t.co/1iHsgunsp1
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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预计SIVE 2027年成百亿美元公司，若按LITE路径未来几年甚至有60倍可能。
我个人认为 $SIVE 到2027年会成为100亿美元以上公司，也就是8-10倍。 $LITE 确实在2年内从28亿美元涨到800亿美元，所以如果天时地利，未来几年60倍也并非不可能。 它们正在走正确道路。 > $LITE / UC Berkeley 高管运营公司。 > 可能有更多美国光子学相关高管进入董事会。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 可能通过美国机构私募融资。 > 用这些资金做下游 IP 收购。 > 销售完整可插拔收发器/ELS 来扩展 TAM。 > 每个超大云厂商现在似乎都能映射到 Sivers，只是 CPO 还没放量。 它们会像 $LITE 当年从激光源开始那样，在过程中捕获更多收入扩张。
英文原文
I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x. $LITE did go from $2.8B to $80B in 2 years, so not really impossible do a 60x in the next few years if the stars align. They're going down the right path. > $LITE / UC Berkeley executives running company. > Likely more US executive photonics related board members. > NASDAQ listing > Likely US institution private placement for funding > use that for downstream IP acquisition. > sell full pluggable transceiver/ELS for TAM expansion > every hyperscaler kinda maps to Sivers right now, just no scale yet since CPO hasnt ramped up. They just capture more revenue expansion along the way like $LITE did starting from the laser source.
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SIVE自由流通股空头约17%，叠加MSCI、CHIPS、NASDAQ催化使空头风险高。
$SIVE 空头权益根据一些第三方数据约占自由流通股17%，这非常大（昨天之后可能更高）。 在我看来，它们这么早做空大概完了。 现在有 MSCI + CHIPS Act + NASDAQ 上市催化。 还有一家瑞典本地对冲基金上个月因空头亏损20%，如果事情继续这样发展，它可能会出问题。
英文原文
$SIVE short interest is around ~17% of free float apparently from some third party data, which is enormous (probably higher after yesterday). IMO they're prob fked doing it so early on. Now with MSCI + CHIPS ACT + NASDAQ Listing cataylsts. There was another local Swedish hedge fund that was down -20% off their shorts last month, so it might go under if things continue as is.
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SIVE纳入MSCI并获得660万美元CHIPS资金，政府托底关键瓶颈。
$SIVE 刚被纳入 MSCI，这意味着两周内可能又有数千万美元买盘压力。 此外还有新的660万美元 CHIPS Act 资金进入，这是很棒的资本注入。 最大的是这项 CHIPS Act 进展带来的收入含义，无论它们正在做什么黑魔法。政府把 Sivers 作为关键 chokepoint 托底，是锦上添花。 我个人认为它还会涨很多。
英文原文
$SIVE just got MSCI inclusion and that's another likely tens of millions buying pressure in 2 weeks. Then there's new $6.6M CHIPS ACT funding coming in, which is an amazing capital injection. The largest thing is revenue implications from this CHIPS ACT development, whatever black magic they're working on. Gov backstopping Sivers as a critical chokepoint is a cherry on top. I personally think it's going much higher.
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调侃瑞典刚说Sivers完了，美国政府就给SIVE CHIPS奖励。
回复 @MindQuest42：瑞典字面上像是在说：“Sivers 完了。” 第二天：美国政府给 $SIVE 660万美元 CHIPS Act 奖励，哈哈。
英文原文
@MindQuest42 Sweden is literally like: "it's all over for Sivers" Next day: US government gives $SIVE 6.6M CHIPS ACT award lol.
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SIVE获得美国CHIPS Act 660万美元，与BAE合作用于美国防务基础设施现代化。
最新：$SIVE 获得美国 CHIPS Act 660万美元。 这是第二年项目的660万美元。 与 BAE Systems 合作：“使用 Sivers 技术现代化美国防务基础设施”。 像 $SIVE 这样小的公司获得 CHIPS Act 资金，极其看多。 因为它把 Sivers 定位为一个关键、由美国政府托底的国家安全 chokepoint。
英文原文
Just in: $SIVE gets $6.6M from the US CHIPS ACT. This is a $6.6M Year 2 Program. In collaboration with BAE Systems: "Modernizing U.S. Defense Infrastructure Using Sivers Technology" This is incredibly bullish to have such a small company in $SIVE to get CHIPS ACT funding. As it positions Sivers as a critical, US-government backstopped chokepoint for national security.
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SIVE/RPI模式类似：信息综合上涨后机构负面报道、散户卖出、机构买入流通盘、股价新高。
回复 @dubidubabap：我看到 $SIVE、$RPI 以及基本所有事情都有很强的相似性。 它诡异地类似于：信息综合推动价格上涨 -> 机构发布负面新闻/媒体周期 -> 散户卖出 -> 结果机构在买入流通盘 -> 股票创历史新高。
英文原文
@dubidubabap I see pretty strong parallels with $SIVE, $RPI, and basically everything. It’s eerily similar to price rises on info synthesis -> institutions publish negative news/media cycles -> retail sells -> turns out institutions were buying the float -> stock hits ATHs.
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复盘SOI：媒体和机构质疑后散户卖出，机构买入，2个月从40涨到140。
再提醒一次： 我3月在 $SOI 40美元发帖一天后。 花旗和 Kepler 点名我并说： “很难理解为什么 [Soitec] 股价涨这么多。” “市场热情是否过度？花旗认为是。” 然后我被欧洲本地媒体负面点名。 不幸的是，许多散户在这些报告后卖出，而机构下单买入流通盘。 2个月后，Soitec 现在交易在140美元。 而今天很多同样机构给出250美元目标价。
英文原文
Just another reminder: One day after my $SOI post back in March at $40. Citibank and Kepler called me out and said “it is very difficult to understand why the action [Soitec] has risen so much” “Is the enthusiasm of the market exaggerated? That's what Citi thinks.” Then I got a bunch of negative callouts from local European media. Unfortunately many retail investors sold after these reports, while institutions had orders in to buy up the float. 2 months later, Soitec is now trading at 140. With many of these same institutions giving 250 PTs today.
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称已经有一个想法。
回复 @SingularityRes：我已经有一个想法在脑子里。
英文原文
@SingularityRes Already have an idea in mind https://t.co/MaHzHL5CJc
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鼓励分享思考过程，收入会用于狗收容所或广告牌。
回复 @LivingITMoney：不过没有什么阻止你也分享自己的思考过程！ 但这些会被用在好地方，比如狗狗收容所，或者旧金山的 Aespa x Serenity 广告牌。
英文原文
@LivingITMoney Nothing is stopping you from doing the same though sharing your thought process! But it goes to good use like dog shelters or Aespa x Serenity billboards in San Francisco.
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付费订阅达到2.75万，仍会继续分享SOI式垄断想法。
哇，X 上 27,500 名付费订阅者是个疯狂数字。 这足够在旧金山某处放一块有趣广告牌？ 但我会继续分享很多想法，尽管当前市场下跌！ 在各国进行供应链战争时，我脑子里还有很多像 $SOI 这类有趣垄断标的。
英文原文
Wow, 27,500 paid subscribers is an insane number on X. That’s enough to help put a 1 fun billboard somewhere in SF? But will keep sharing a lot of ideas, despite current market drops! Got a lot of fun $SOI type monopolies in mind as your countries play supply chain warfare. https://t.co/pB6V8eEl2Z
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没想到瑞典会变成X上的大众梗。
我从没想过有一天瑞典会在 X 上变成一个广为理解的梗。
英文原文
I’ve never thought I’d see Sweden get turned into a widely understood meme on X.
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从LITE/COHR部分轮动到SIVE/Foci，认为CPO是光子学超级周期中最有吸引力主题。
一个帅哥就算和 Clavicular 并排也更抢眼，但这不会影响任何基本面。 我上个月也像 Leopold 一样，削减了一些 $LITE、$COHR 敞口。 但我把它轮动到一个具体光学主题：$SIVE / Foci 这样的 CPO 名字。 整个光子学供应链正处于巨大超级周期的起点，而做多 CPO 作为架构范式转变，没有什么比这更有吸引力。 市场把两家公司等同于整个主题，然后一起卖掉所有相关东西。 不过对理解细节的人来说，这是很好的买入机会。 我仍认为 Lumentum 和 $COHR 有上行，只是如果只买股票，在当前价格下不太可能像其他名字那样快速翻倍。
英文原文
A good looking guy that would mog Clavicular side by side has no impact to any fundamentals. I cut some exposure too in $LITE $COHR like Leopold, last month. But rotated it to a specific optical theme with CPO names like $SIVE / Foci. The entire photonics supply chain is in the start of a massive supercycle and there’s nothing more compelling going long on CPO as an architectural paradigm shift. Markets conflate two companies as the entire theme and sell off anything with it. Great buying opportunity for people who understands the nuance though. I still think there’s upside for Lumentum and $COHR, just less likely to double at current prices as fast if you’re going shares only.