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抱怨每条帖子要隐藏大量评论。
我每条帖子都要隐藏大概100条评论，X 的人请修一下这个。
英文原文
I NEED TO HIDE LIKE 100 COMMENTS PER POST, SOMEONE AT X PLEASE FIX THIS. https://t.co/vyhfuDiato
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称不再持仓但若有人有能力买下整家公司，则做空不是好选择。
回复 @SidkMena：我已经没有持仓了，所以不评论那里。 我只是说，如果有人看多，并且有足够资金直接买下整家公司，那它可能不是一个好空头。
英文原文
@SidkMena I don't have positions anymore, so no comment there. I'm just saying it's probably not a good short, if there's someone who is bullish... and has enough to buy the company outright.
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认为做空TE未必好，因为OpenAI runway model可能有能力买下整家公司。
是的，我不确定所有做空 $TE 的人是不是个好主意…… 当 OpenAI runway model 很可能有足够资金买下整家公司时。 话虽如此： 有人记得我预测 Faker 会赢世界赛，而且他们真的赢了吗？
英文原文
Yeah I'm not sure all the shorts on $TE is a good idea... When the OpenAI runway model likely has enough to buy the entire company. That being said: Anyone remember I predicted Faker to win worlds, and they actually did? https://t.co/F9ugI8M2Vb
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指出AAOI 6亿美元ATM造成短期压力。
回复 @PronologieFR：呃，就是 $AAOI 的6亿美元 ATM，会造成很多近期压力。
英文原文
@PronologieFR Uhh just your $600m ATM with $AAOI, that causes a lot of near term pressure
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主题不是线性接替，而是物理AI、玻璃基板、TFLN、存储、能源、光子学、CPU并行。
回复 @Sirivs_：不是一个接一个。是多个事情同时发生。 物理 AI 显然是下一个，值得看人形机器人、4D AI 等。 然后是玻璃基板和 TFLN 这样的近期转变。 现在有存储、能源、光子学、CPU。
英文原文
@Sirivs_ It’s not one after the other. It’s multiple things concurrently. Physical AI is obviously next, good to look at humanoid, 4D AI and others. Then near term shifts like glass substrates and TFLN is important. Right now there’s memory, energy, photonics, CPUs.
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列出SIVE近期催化：MSCI流入、CHIPS资金、Jabil放量、Apple线索、M&A董事、NASDAQ上市。
瑞典，你听了吗？ > $SIVE MSCI 纳入 + 结构性流入 > 660万美元 CHIPS Act 资金 > Jabil 1.6T 极端需求、放量爬坡 > Apple 下一代 Watch 更新可能使用 Sivers > 2名与并购相关的新董事 > Nasdaq 上市将至 故事变得越来越好。
英文原文
Did you listen Sweden? > $SIVE MSCI Listing + structural inflow > $6.6M CHIPS act funding > Jabil 1.6T extreme demand, volume ramp > Apple next-gen Watch refresh likely using Sivers > 2 new board members related to M&A > Nasdaq listing inc The story keeps getting better. https://t.co/mlKM9WcIOf
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同意低收入者应先扣除生活成本再纳税。
“Jeff Bezos 说美国低收入者应该零纳税。” 我其实同意这个观点，但实施上有些细节： 低收入者应该被允许先扣除所有生活开支，再缴税。 就像富人能把很多东西作为商业开支或避税结构来抵扣一样。 低收入公民的大多数“生活成本”来自房租、医疗、食物、汽油、车贷/大学学费、孩子等。 即使在这些之后，他们仍按原始收入缴税。 一个低收入者只是努力生活，最后还欠税，这感觉有点蠢。
英文原文
“Jeff Bezos says low earners in the US should pay zero tax” I actually agree this this with some nuance on implementation: Low earners should be allowed to deduct all their living expenses before paying tax. Just like how the wealthy are able to write off a lot of things as business expenses or tax sheltered structures: Majority of “living costs” for low income citizens come from rent, healthcare, food, gas, car loans/college tuition, kids, etc. Even after all that they’re paying tax on their original income. Feels a little stupid to have low income earners owe money after just trying to live.
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指出CPO/1.6T订单收入2027放量，当前收入多为开发合同。
回复 @ChrisGrobbel：CPO/1.6T 订单会在2027年放量。你引用的所有收入都来自开发合同。
英文原文
@ChrisGrobbel CPO/1.6T orders volume ramps up in 2027. All the revenue you’re citing are from development contracts.
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说明若走ADR路线可通过IBKR转换并在Nasdaq交易。
回复 @a_ahmd31117：如果它们走 ADR 路线，你可以通过 $IBKR 做 ADR 转换，然后开始在 Nasdaq 交易。这样也能保持未实现收益状态。 不过会花一点小费用。
英文原文
@a_ahmd31117 If they do the ADR route, you can just convert it through $IBKR through adr conversion and start trading it on Nasdaq. You keep it unrealized that way too. Costs a tiny fee though.
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解释为何关注SIVE并购：早期客户后来成长为数十亿美元公司，Sivers懂得收购光学IP。
如果人们还没意识到为什么我如此关注 $SIVE 的并购。 Sivers 的潜在客户曾经是： Lightmatter 很小时 -> 成为40亿美元以上公司。 Lightelligence 很小时 -> 成为100亿美元以上公司。 Ayar 很小时 -> 现在由 $NVDA、$AMD 等资助。 Celestial 很小时 -> 被 $MRVL 收购并成为其增长向量。独立估值可能会超过100亿美元。 我极其确定 Sivers 知道该收购什么光学 IP。 它们只是卡在 Catch-22 中，原本缺少资金，尽管拥有最有价值的激光瓶颈之一。 未来 NASDAQ 上市和近期增长，现在解锁了下游 IP 收购潜力。
英文原文
If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.
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询问现在又有什么错误信息。
回复 @BobbaPaddop：现在人们又在传播什么愚蠢的错误信息？
英文原文
@BobbaPaddop What kind of stupid disinformation are people spreading now?
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SIVE若上NASDAQ将打开美国资本流入，历史上美国机构常积累50-70%持股。
大多数美国资本以及美国投资者目前无法接触 $SIVE。 所以如果它在 NASDAQ 上市，就会有巨大的新资本流入。尤其是如果机构想买入流通盘。 历史上看，$HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS 等案例中，美国机构会试图积累50-70%。Nebius 在美国上市时机构持股低于38%。 所以很难看出这不是净正面。
英文原文
Majority of US capital as well as US investors can't access $SIVE right now. So if they get listed on NASDAQ, it's just a massive new inflow of capital. Especially if institutions want to buy the float. Historically with $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS and others, US institutions try and accumulate 50-70%. (Nebius started <38% on US listing) So hard to see it not being net-positive.
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希望SIVE成为下一个LITE，而不是被MRVL/JBL收购。
回复 @osilayer8：不是，我是在为 $SIVE 成为下一个 $LITE 加油。 我建仓不是为了让 Sivers 被 $MRVL 或 $JBL 收购。 考虑到光子学需求，我也真的不认为 NASDAQ 上市后的融资会成为问题。 只是等待游戏。
英文原文
@osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE. I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL. I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand. Just a waiting game.
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SIVE空头面临MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、财报、新客户、JBL需求和M&A多重不确定性。
这可能是因为空头面临极端不确定风险。 > MSCI 纳入将在一两周内为 $SIVE 触发数千万美元新流入。 > NASDAQ 上市可能随时发生。 > 财报催化，带来新的可插拔合作伙伴。 > 今天关于 $JBL 使用 $SIVE 的 1.6T LRO 极端需求新闻。 > 现在还有更多并购相关事项，可能突然增加收入数字。 借券费率飙升对长期持有人更好，因为它让持有空头仓位更痛苦，尤其是在空头占17%以上流通盘时。
英文原文
It's probably due to extreme uncertainty risk for short sellers. > Since MSCI listing triggers tens of millions of new inflow for $SIVE in a week or two. > NASDAQ listing could be anytime > Earnings catalysts, with new pluggable partners > News about $JBL extreme demand for 1.6T LRO using $SIVE today > and now more M&A related stuff that can suddenly increase revenue numbers Spiking short rates is better for long term holders, since it makes it more painful to have short positions, especially when it's 17%+ of the float.
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新M&A董事可推动Sivers收购光学IP并提升收入。
回复 @jaddaplayer： > 新并购董事 > Sivers 买入更多光学 IP > 收入 go brr
英文原文
@jaddaplayer > New M&A board members > Sivers buys more optical IP > Revenue goes brr
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Sivers提名并购背景董事，战略意图明确指向CPO超级周期下的快速扩张路径。
$SIVE今天提名了两位新的董事会成员。这非常具有深意，因为这两位新成员都有并购背景，分别来自： -> 爱立信并购负责人 / Verdane顾问，专注于并购 / 德意志银行 -> HMS首席财务官 / Axholmen和Celerant Consulting，涉及并购/战略 $SIVE的看涨逻辑是从激光源开始： 然后通过IP收购快速扩展TAM至可插拔器件/共封装光学(CPO)产品线，并利用$FN等合作方进行最终组装以保持轻资本支出。 如果他们想在CPO/光子学超级周期中获取更多整体收入，可以参考$LITE的玩法。 因此，提名两位专注并购的人是一个健康指标，说明他们正走在正确的轨道上。 唯一需要考虑的是，在NASDAQ上市后通过私募或可转债向美国机构进行融资。 因为瑞典市场流动性仍然非常薄弱，Sivers可以通过更好的条款进行更大的收购... 在美国新流动性重新定价市值/股价之后。（Sivers目前有那笔过桥融资） 一旦Sivers满足一些美国机构的上市要求，更大的美国机构可能也有兴趣建立新的重大$SIVE仓位。
英文原文
$SIVE is nominating two new board members today. It's very highly telling since the newcomers have acquisition backgrounds from: -> Head of M&A at Ericsson / Advisor at Verdane, focusing on M&A / Deutsche Bank. -> CFO from HMS / Axholmen and Celerant Consulting around M&A/strategy. The bull case with $SIVE was to start from the laser source: Then speedrun TAM expansion down the pluggable/CPO stack through IP acquisitions, and use $FN + others for final assembly to keep things capex light. If they want to capture more overall revenue during the CPO/Photonics supercycle, following the $LITE playbook. So, it's a healthy indicator they're heading down the right track nominating two M&A focused people. Only idea to float out is to capital raise with private placement or convertibles with US institutions after NASDAQ listing. Since Swedish markets are still very thin and Sivers can get better terms for larger acquisitions... after new US liquidity reprices of MC/shares on listing. (Sivers has that recent bridge round in the meantime) Larger US institutions are likely interested in entering new very material $SIVE positions as well once Sivers passes some US institutions listing mandates.
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欧洲光子学SIVE/IQE/SOI均双位数反弹。
欧洲光子学的普通一天？ $SIVE、$IQE、$SOI 全部出现双位数反弹。 这些都是未来核心玩家，在这些水平上很难看到任何下跌不被买走。
英文原文
Just your average day in European photonics? With $SIVE, $IQE, and $SOI all hitting double digit recoveries. These are all core players going forward, hard to see any dip not being bought out at these levels. https://t.co/fYaYAov3Vn
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认为SIVE可能是JBL特定1.6T LRO唯一供应商，因架构独特。
回复 @ShakespeareDad：鉴于架构独特性，$SIVE 很可能是 $JBL 这款特定 1.6T LRO 的唯一来源。 它不是标准 CW 激光器。
英文原文
@ShakespeareDad $SIVE is likely sole source for this specific 1.6T LRO from $JBL given the architectural uniqueness. It’s not a standard cw laser.
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JPM炉边会显示JBL 1.6T LRO量产早于预期，SIVE激光架构形成护城河且需求近乎无上限。
$SIVE 与 $JBL 的 1.6T 光收发器量产： 根据 JPMorgan 炉边谈话，现在比预期更早。 他们宣布的内容： > $SIVE 激光架构暗示“相当显著的护城河”。 > 其 1.6T 存在极端需求，此前市场并不知道具体量级。 > 时间线快于预期，将收入实现窗口提前。 声明内容： 1. Jabil 的 1.6T LRO “将在未来1到4个月进入不同认证”。 “认证可能需要2到6个月。” 考虑到现在是2026年上半年5月，量产和收入实现可能在3到10个月内开始。 以6.5个月中点看，就是2026年底。 很多此前估计是2027年下半年。 3. 架构上，它“比当前1.6T 功耗曲线低约11千瓦”。 超大云厂商会喜欢听到这个，而这就是通过 $SIVE 作为关键光子学 chokepoint 证明的竞争差异化和相当显著护城河。 4. “在这一点上，不是份额问题。真正的问题是跟上整个市场的自然增长。” 这再次显示巨大需求已经超过供应。 含义是，关键变成 Sivers + Jabil 能一起生产多少，因为它们生产的任何东西都会被买走。 这种表述对 Sivers 相对于当前市值的收入极其重要。 市场此前不确定 Sivers x Jabil 的确切需求量和商业时间线。 Jabil 刚刚公开确认，使用 $SIVE 激光的 1.6T LRO 需求本质上没有上限。
英文原文
$SIVE mass production for 1.6T optical transceivers with $JBL: Is now earlier than expected per JP Morgan Fireside chat. Here's what they announced: > "Relatively dramatic moat" implied with $SIVE laser architectures > Extreme demand for their 1.6T, which was previously unknown in terms of volume. > Faster than expected timelines, pulling revenue realization window forward. The statement: 1. Jabil’s 1.6T LRO: "Goes into different qualifications across the next 1 to 4 months" “The quals can take anywhere between 2 to 6 months" Given its May H1 2026, mass production and revenue realization could begin in anywhere between 3 months to 10 months. So late 2026 with 6.5 month midpoint. Lot of former estimates were H2 2027. 3. Architecturally it's "which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles" Hyperscalers would like to hear this, and this is the competitive differentiation + relatively dramatic moat proven with $SIVE as the critical photonics chokepoint. 4. "At this point, it's not about share. It's really about keeping up with the organic growth of the entire market." Again this shows that the enormous demand has outstripped supply. The implications are that it’s more of a matter of how much Sivers + Jabil can build together, as anything they make would be bought. This type of statement is just incredibly material for Sivers revenue relative to their current marketcap. The market was previously uncertain about the exact volume demand and commercial timeline from Sivers X Jabil. Jabil just publicly confirmed that the demand for their 1.6T LRO with $SIVE lasers is essentially uncapped.
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批评高估值下用ATM向散户转移财富。
回复 @kevinxu：如果有人把一家对 Boston Dynamics 有4000万美元敞口的公司，以9亿美元市值上市。 然后提交100亿美元 ATM，在散户买入时向公开市场卖出。 你会把这种向公司转移财富的机制称为功能吗？
英文原文
@kevinxu So if someone lists a company with $40m exposure to Boston dynamics at a $900M MC. Then files for a $10B ATM to sell into the open market as retail buys. Would you call that calling that wealth transfer mechanic to the company a feature?
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质疑20亿美元有效ATM与市值/NAV的说法哪里错误。
回复 @kevinxu：关于20亿美元有效 ATM 以及当前市值相对 NAV 的部分，哪里是假的？
英文原文
@kevinxu What part about the $2B effective ATM and current marketcap to NAV is false?
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调侃1300磅炉子不像SMCI把GPU藏吹风机盒那么容易。
回复 @OriginalTrades：我不太认为隐藏1300磅的炉子，会像 $SMCI 把 GPU 走私进吹风机盒子那么容易。
英文原文
@OriginalTrades I don't quite think hiding 1300 pound furnaces is as easy as smuggling GPUs like $SMCI into hairdryer boxes.
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出口管制InP会伤及IQE/LITE等下游，而管制人形机器人瓶颈连带伤害较小。
我在思考对 Rasa/NCI 的出口管制，但如果总体上暂停中国 InP 衬底生产，会对 $IQE、$LITE 等下游造成很多附带损害。 但通过 Ulvac 和其他瓶颈暂停中国人形机器人生产，并不会造成同等程度的附带损害。
英文原文
I was thinking about export controls on Rasa/NCI but that would cause a lot of downstream collateral damage on $IQE, $LITE, etc. if you halted China's InP substrate production in general. But halting China's humanoid production with Ulvac and other chokepoints doesn't really do as much collateral harm.
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调侃对方像中国。
回复 @MikeMikey999：Nice try China。
英文原文
@MikeMikey999 Nice try China https://t.co/tyg5mSWdAS
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称中国曾管制日本上游InP衬底以阻断西方AI光子供应链，建议美日反制。
回复 @TigerMeditation：兄弟，中国在1月我发 $AXTI 帖后，字面上对日本上游 InP 衬底实施出口管制，以阻断西方 AI 光子供应链。 也许美国/日本该用便宜内裤关税以外的方式反击了？
英文原文
@TigerMeditation Bro China literally export controlled Japan on upstream InP substrates back in Jan, after my $AXTI post, to halt Western AI photonic supply chains. Maybe it's time for US/Japan to fight back, in ways other than tariffs on cheap underwear??
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建议美日将Ulvac列入出口管制，以打击中国人形机器人稀土磁体设备瓶颈。
一个随手想法： 美国政府/日本应该把 Ulvac（6728）列入出口管制名单，让它们停止向中国发货。 这样就能扰乱中国整个人形机器人计划（因为它是“军民两用应用”）。 作为对上游 InP/稀土相关出口管制的报复。 对袜子出口加45%关税没什么用，但扰乱中国机器人计划，确实有用。 Ulvac 是日本在钕磁体上的主要 chokepoint。 “Ulvac 长期通过其中国子公司制造稀土磁体真空熔炼炉。” 所以也许该让这件事停下来？ 如果它们停止出货，你可以打断宇树和其他中国人形机器人量产供应链。 只有当中国允许稀土出口重新流动时，出口才能继续。
英文原文
Just a shower thought: US Gov/Japan should put Ulvac (6728) on the export control list so they stop shipping to China. That way you can disrupt China's entire humanoid program (since it's "Dual Use Military Applications"). As retaliation over upstream InP/rare earth related export controls. Adding 45% tariffs on sock exports won't do much, but disrupting China's robotics program, sure. Ulvac is Japan's major chokepoint over neodymium magnets. "Ulvac has long manufactured rare-earth magnet vacuum melting furnaces through its Chinese subsidiary". So maybe put that to rest? If they stop shipping, you can break Unitree's and other humanoid mass production supply chains in China. And only if they allow rare earth exports to start flowing again, then exports can continue.
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称自己不像其他人从散户身上榨取资本。
回复 @MultiBaggerss：我不像其他人那样试图从散户投资者身上榨取资本。
英文原文
@MultiBaggerss I'm not trying to extract capital off retail investors like others.
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普通投资者不读SEC文件，容易被网红推Figure后买入有效ATM。
回复 @RHouseResearch：普通投资者不读 SEC 文件。 他们只看到网红推广“Figure”，然后盲目买入最近也提交的有效 ATM。
英文原文
@RHouseResearch The regular investor doesn't read SEC filings. They just see "Figure" promoted by influencers, then blindly buy into effective ATMs that were also recently filed.
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批评BOT以高估值持有非流动资产并叠加20亿美元有效ATM，散户成退出流动性。
我不确定怎么会有人觉得以7.5亿美元市值买入 $BOT 中价值1.45亿美元、经常低于 NAV 交易的非流动资产是个好主意。 即使下跌37%后，它仍然约4.9亿美元市值。 除此之外，人们还在买入一个通过股权融资工具缓慢滴灌的20亿美元有效 ATM。 散户不仅提供了： > 退出流动性。 > 而且是在极度膨胀估值下提供退出流动性。 > 同时在有效 ATM 提交后，把自己买入的东西财富转移给公司。 也许基金有良好意图，但在当前估值下： 如果你是散户投资者，你基本上是在用流通盘玩金字塔烫手山芋。
英文原文
I'm not sure how anyone thought it was a good idea to buy $145m worth of illiquid assets in $BOT that frequently trade under NAV. For $750M MC. Even after the 37% drop, it's still ~$490M MC. On top of that, people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dripping via a equity facility. Retail not only gave: > Exit liquidity. > But exit liquidity at massively inflated valuations > While wealth transferring whatever you buy over after the effective ATM got filed. Maybe the fund had good intentions, but at current valuations: If you are a retail investor, you're basically playing pyramid hot potato with the float.
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梳理Starlink/Amazon Kuiper LEO PCB供应链和下一阶段光学星间链路瓶颈。
Starlink / Amazon Kuiper LEO 想法： -> Compeq（2313）：“已获得包括 Starlink 和 Amazon Kuiper 计划在内的领先运营商订单” - 96亿美元市值。 “分析师称，PCB 供应商涌入可能形成‘玩家众多、蛋糕有限’动态，提高新进入者壁垒。” - Unitech Printed Circuit Board - Chin-Poon Industrial、K Tech - ACCL “都预计在赢得合同时面临越来越大困难。” 接下来会发生什么： - 光学星间链路（OISL）。 瓶颈想法： - 高频所需的下一代 HDI 板越来越依赖特殊材料，导致上游供应链交期更长。 所以值得研究这个上游领域。
英文原文
Starlink / Amazon Kuiper LEO ideas: -> Compeq (2313): "has secured orders from leading operators, including Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper program" - $9.6B MC "Analysts say the influx of PCB suppliers is likely to produce a "many players, limited pie" dynamic, raising barriers for newer entrants" - Unitech Printed Circuit Board - Chin-Poon Industrial, K Tech - ACCL "are all expected to face growing difficulty in winning contracts." What's coming next: - optical inter-satellite links (OISL). Bottleneck ideas: - next-generation HDI boards required for high-frequency are increasingly dependent on specialty materials, leading to longer lead times across the upstream supply chain So good to look into this upstream area.