业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 481 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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调侃对方错过MSTR，指出其他持仓均获10%以上收益。
@CannyFuturist 哈哈，你错过了 $MSTR。不过其他几只都涨了10%以上 https://t.co/cyjzHqoPJx
英文原文
@CannyFuturist lol you missed out on $MSTR. All the others weee 10%+ gains though https://t.co/cyjzHqoPJx
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回应质疑，分享AXTI股价大涨验证其上游瓶颈研究逻辑。
谢谢！我记得曾看到很多评论说 $AXTI 是“骗局股”之类的，因为其市值较小。但许多瓶颈隐藏在上游深处。我曾为许多风险投资机构(VC)做尽职调查(DD)，因此习惯于研究这类小盘股及其财务报表。我并非事事正确，但很高兴 $AXTI 前景看好，且我的投资论点已反映在股价60%以上的涨幅中。
英文原文
Thank you! I remember seeing a lot of comments that stuff like $AXTI was "scam stock", etc. bc of the market cap. But a lot of bottlenecks are hidden deep upstream. I used to do DD for a lot of VC, so I'm used to looking into smaller stocks + financials like these. I don't get everything right, but glad $AXTI is looking promising + my thesis so far is reflected in the 60%+ stock price increase.
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有人全仓做多亚马逊看涨期权，财报后爆仓。
@hopefulmetsfan 我是说有人全仓买入 $AMZN 看涨期权。但在今天亚马逊财报发布后，他们被洗盘了。https://t.co/FKa4U27ZyW
英文原文
@hopefulmetsfan I mean someone else did full port $AMZN calls. But they got wiped out after Amazon earnings today. https://t.co/FKa4U27ZyW
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博主将50%仓位投入比特币，视其为长期最高信念资产。
我对比特币持有纯粹且完全坚定的信念。 我刚刚在约 73,000 美元的价格将 50% 的仓位投入其中。 在长期时间框架下，比特币和 $RKLB 是我信念最强的资产。 我很乐意持有任何波动。
英文原文
I have pure and completely regarded conviction in Bitcoin. Just put in 50% of my portfolio into it around $73K. Bitcoin and $RKLB are my highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe. I’m happy holding it through any volatility. https://t.co/IskCechnmA
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博主坦言投资也有亏损，指出部分AI股估值与现金或基本面严重脱节。
我完全没头绪。很多人看到我发了大量像 $OSS 或 $AXTI 这样的高收益论点帖子，但当我判断错误时，我也确实会亏钱。 而且我确实是真金白银地践行我的观点（skin in the game）。 我曾与其他分析师讨论，他们都感到困惑。对于 $ETOR 和 $VLN，我发现它们与市场的明显脱节，两者交易价格接近其现金余额，但显然市场并不认同我的观点。 如果 $NBIS 正在通过自动取款机(ATM)增发，那稍微说得通一些，但其运营业务并未通过分部加总法(Sum of Parts)得到正确定价。 至于 Nebius，如果市值仍为 210 亿美元，而年底年化经常性收入(ARR)为 70 亿美元，那我就不知道了。
英文原文
I have 0 clue. Lot of people see me making tons off thesis posts like $OSS or $AXTI but I do lose money too when I'm wrong. And I do put my money where my mouth is. I've had discussions with other analysts and they're all puzzled. $ETOR, $VLN I've identified clear disconnects with the market with both of them trading near cash balance but clearly market doesn't agree with me. $NBIS makes slightly more sense if they're going through their ATM now, but their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly. With Nebius, if the MC is still the same at $21B with $7B ARR EOY, then idk.
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博主谦虚回应感谢，承认SNDK投资者收益可能优于自己。
@PhotonCap @KawzInvests 谢谢！我相信肯定有很多人的回报率比我高。 $SNDK 的投资者可能已经跑赢了我的投资组合 https://t.co/ewZGEiY9j7
英文原文
@PhotonCap @KawzInvests Thank you! I’m sure a lot of people have better returns out there. $SNDK investors would probably would have outperformed my portfolio https://t.co/ewZGEiY9j7
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博主分享日内交易获利案例，因账户规模扩大停止晒单。
不，只是用于日内交易的头寸。例如，我隔夜买入因下跌5%的$ORCL，并在盘前上涨4%时卖出，在一两个小时内获得了9%的收益。我对许多不同的股票重复进行这种操作。不幸的是，我的账户规模变得太大，所以我不再发布交易记录，只发布更多分析性和论点性的内容。
英文原文
Nope, just shares for day trades. For example bought $ORCL overnight the 5% drop and sold on the 4% rise premarket for a 9% gain in an hour or two. I just do this with a lot of different stocks and repeat. Unfortunately my account got too big so I don’t post trades anymore, just more analytical things and thesis posts
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博主分享1月份至今145%的收益率表现。
@KawzInvests 1月份至今涨幅145% https://t.co/pZ9roJ0pZv
英文原文
@KawzInvests 145% so far in Jan https://t.co/pZ9roJ0pZv
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复盘上月提及的AIRO、LPTH和AVAV表现，重申其投资逻辑。
大家都在走上路。所以 $VPG 是那个强力核心。说正经的，$AIRO、$LPTH 和 $AVAV 都是上个月提到的。$AIRO 自提及以来上涨了 24.9%。我进行了加仓摊平成本，所以在回调后略微盈利/持平。这是我对 $ONDS 的补涨操作，投资逻辑没有改变。$LPTH 下跌了几个百分点，作为锗(Germanium)瓶颈环节的修复方案。基本面没有发生严重的恶化。这是美国锗供应链从向中国转向黑钻(Black Diamond)的长期战略。短期2-3周的价格波动不重要。$AVAV 上涨了，但我是在320多美元时讨论的它。$RKLB 是一家市值450亿美元以上的发射公司，而 $AVAV 凭借数十亿美元的国防合同，年增长率达到三位数。所以在130-140亿美元市值时，我认为这是一个很好的长线标的。
英文原文
They’re all running it down Toplane. Hence why $VPG is the hard carry. Jokes aside $AIRO, $LPTH and $AVAV were all mentioned last month. $AIRO was up 24.9% since I mentioned it. Cost averaged up, so slightly green/breakeven after the drop. This was my catchup play to $ONDS and nothing about the thesis changed. $LPTH is down a few percent as a Germanium choke point fix. Nothing too dire materially changed. This was a long term US germanium supply chain pivot away from China into black diamond. Short term prices in 2-3 weeks don’t matter much. $AVAV is up, but I did talk about it in the $320s. $RKLB is a $45B+ launch company and AVAV is scaling triple digits Y/Y off billions in defense contracts. So at $13-14B I think this is a good long
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博主对比同行跌幅，自嘲今日亏损15%是前币圈交易者的常态。
@pepemoonboy 说实话，考虑到 $NBIS 下跌超过 10%，而 $SLV 等其他标的下跌超过 29%，-6.32% 的跌幅其实相当不错。 我今天亏损了 15.03%。 不过对于前加密货币交易者来说，这感觉就像是一个普通的周五。 https://t.co/KV9Y3DX67Y
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Honestly -6.32% drop is pretty good considering $NBIS is down 10%+ and others like $SLV are down 29%+. I'm down 15.03% today. This feels like a normal Friday though for former crypto traders. https://t.co/KV9Y3DX67Y
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博主回顾早期加密持仓经历，称Solana仅为波段交易。
哈哈，我在 $RDDT 的一个帖子提到 $ETH 在 1600 美元时，后来它涨到了 4000 美元。 我是 $ETH 低于 90 美元和 $BTC 在几千美元区间时的早期加密货币持有者。 所以过去几年我经历了所有的周期。不过我通常不碰像 Solana 这样的东西，除非它大幅抛售。 对我来说这不是长期持有，只是波段交易。
英文原文
lol one of my $RDDT posts was $ETH at $1600 before it went to $4k. I’m an OG crypto holder at $ETH sub $90 and $BTC in the few thousand range. So I’ve been through all the cycles for the past few years. I normally don’t touch stuff like Solana though unless it sells off extremely hard. Not a long term hold for me just a swing trade.
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博主今日大幅加仓加密货币相关ETF及个股，试图抄底。
我今天最终将大量仓位轮动到了正在下落的加密货币“飞刀”上。 只是感觉从 $COIN 到 $SOL 的所有东西最近都跌得有点太多了。 - 比特币 $82.9k 通过 IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) 通过 $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) 通过 $LTCC - $COIN ($197) 希望我抄底抄对了时机。
英文原文
I ended up rotating a lot of my positions into the falling knife on crypto today. Just felt like everything has recent from $COIN to $SOL has crashed a bit much - Bitcoin $82.9k via IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) via $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) via $LTCC - $COIN ($197) Hope I timed the bottom correctly
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持有SNDK和南亚科，涨幅超1000%。
@HelixCapital_ 可能是 SanDisk，但我没有明确倾向。我目前同时持有 $SNDK 和南亚科(Nanya)（在财报后买入 SanDisk，并将铠侠(Kioxia)作为 SanDisk 的代理标的)。它们自去年以来都上涨了 1000%+，所以很难抱怨。
英文原文
@HelixCapital_ Probably Sandisk but no firm opinion, I own both $SNDK and Nanya right now (ended up buying Sandisk after ER, but have Kioxia as Sandisk proxy) They’re both up 1000%+ since last year so hard to complain.
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作者回顾去年$META期权展期亏损，称当前收益已弥补。
@MD_Gamification 是的，只要最终盈利就行！去年我在$META上亏了不少，因为我不得不将看涨期权(Options Calls)展期到更晚的日期。我的平均成本最终约为$640。但这笔交易弥补了损失。
英文原文
@MD_Gamification Yep, as long as you profit in the end! I ended up losing a lot on $META last year when I had to rotate calls to a later date. My cost avg ended up being around $640 But this made up for it.
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INTC财报重创持仓，但已对冲，下周拟利用波动率下降寻找机会。
@platochi 哭吧，$INTC 的财报评论摧毁了我半导体投资组合的其余部分。说笑归说笑，下周可能会寻找机会，因为做市商(MMs)正在打压隐含波动率(IV)，人们开始恐慌性抛售他们的虚值看涨期权(OTM calls)。幸运的是，我在财报前对冲了大量头寸。
英文原文
@platochi Cry as $INTC ER comments nukes the rest of my semi portfolio. Jokes aside probably looking for opportunities next week as MMs crush IV + people start panic selling their OTM calls. Luckily I hedged a ton for earnings
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反思未在META跌至603美元时加大买入力度。
@pepemoonboy 我本应在 $META 跌至 603 美元时更多地通过成本平均法(Cost Averaging)买入。 https://t.co/6LEijFygpy
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I should have cost averaged $META more on the drop to $603. https://t.co/6LEijFygpy
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博主澄清持仓策略：长线逻辑持股一年，短线如CRDO灵活交易。
@realstockfox 我目前实际上持有33个不同的头寸。如果你看过我的月度更新，我会追踪大量股票。但对于基于投资逻辑（Thesis）的帖子，我通常持有长达一年，因为它们是长线头寸。像 $CRDO 这类则是短期交易。
英文原文
@realstockfox I actually have 33 different positions right now. If you see my monthly updates, I track A TON of stocks. But with the thesis-type posts, I usually hold for a year since they're long positions. Stuff like $CRDO were short term. https://t.co/QxAketGwML
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博主回应批评改在盘中发文，并展示其过往论点均获正收益。
感谢大家的指正。很多人私信我，认为在盘后或隔夜发布投资论点(Thesis)会因流动性不足而加剧市场波动。因此，我改为在交易时段发布我的思考过程。我无法控制市场如何为信息发现定价，也无法控制我分享观点后的影响。自发布以来，$AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 等大多数股票上涨了 70% 且仍在上涨。像 $VLH 或 $LPTH 这样的股票也上涨了约 20-30%。我认为到目前为止，还没有任何一个论点在长期来看是亏损的。
英文原文
Thanks for calling me out on that. A lot of people messaged me privately that posting a thesis during after-hours/overnight would make things a lot worse due to lack of liquidity. So I end up posting my thought process during market hours instead. I have no control over how markets price in information discovery or me sharing my perspective on things. Most stocks from $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS are up 70% since I posted and still keep going up. Stuff like $VLH or $LPTH are up roughly 20-30%. I don't think there's been a single thesis that's been red over time so far.
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分享短线交易获利及新建仓的持仓操作
@charlieliner 太棒了！像 $LPTH 这样的标的从 -5% 反弹至 +7%，这 6 小时的买入操作利润丰厚。 我自己也建仓了 $FIG，并定投(DCA)了 $META（尽管我原本告诉自己不会买软件类股票）。 好奇看看结果如何 https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub
英文原文
@charlieliner Nice! Going from -5% to +7% on some of these names like $LPTH was extremely profitable 6 hour buy. I ended up initiating $FIG positions myself and DCA $META (even though I told myself I wouldn’t buy software stuff). Curious to see how that turns out https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub
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博主坚持投资论点，对多只AI供应链股进行长期持有与加仓。
@truncateit 我确实相信我的投资论点，所以我会对像 $AIRO 和 $LPTH 这样的标的进行成本平均加仓。但如果你好奇的话，是的，我仍然持有 $OSS、$AIRO、$LPTH、$SSYS、$AXTI、$VLN 以及其他我做过尽职调查(DD)的股票，因为它们旨在作为1年期的持仓，而不是12小时的短线交易。https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
英文原文
@truncateit I actually believe in my thesis so I cost average up on stuff like $AIRO and $LPTH. But if you're curious yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI, $VLN, and others I do DD on since they're meant to be 1 year holds, not 12 hour ones. https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
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列举近期持仓标的，表示将持有头寸一年以等待价值重估。
是的？最近发布的帖子包括：用于无人机的 $AIRO、用于边缘计算的 $OSS、用于机器人的 $SSYS、用于人工智能(AI)瓶颈的 $AXTI、用于国防瓶颈的 $LPTH 以及存在定价偏差的 $VLN。自重新评级(re-rating)不会在一两天或一两周内发生，可能需要数月才能显现，因此我将持有我的头寸一年。
英文原文
Yes? $AIRO for drones, $OSS for edge, $SSYS for robotics, $AXTI for AI bottlenecks, $LPTH for defense bottlenecks and $VLN for mispricing were the most recent posts. I’m holding my share positions for a year since re-rating doesn’t happen in a day or week. Might take months to play out.
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博主分享今日逢低买入LPTH、AIRO和VLN的操作。
@MRonvelwala 我个人在今天 $LPTH 和 $AIRO 下跌 4% 时买入，并在 $VLN 下跌 8% 时买入。 看起来 SPY 下跌了 0.8%，因此由恐惧带来的良好机会很多。
英文原文
@MRonvelwala I personally bought $LPTH and $AIRO on 4% drop today and $VLN on the -8% drop. Looks like SPY is down -.8% so lot of good opportunities out there from fear.
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博主分享近期选股大幅上涨，并征集5倍股研究标的。
一月份太疯狂了。 毫不夸张，我的许多选股在过去几天涨幅超过60%。 图表中甚至没有包含 $AXTI +60% 或 $VLN +60%。 更不用说像 $CRDO 25%+ 或 Intel 25%+ 这样较小的涨幅。 如果需要更多5倍股的研究标的，如果你有想法或投资论点，请告诉我。 https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
英文原文
January is wild. Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days. Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts. While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+. Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
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澄清媒体误报 $VLN 涨幅，指出其实际涨幅与模型预测价不同。
@basedinwv 发现这对 $VLN 来说挺有趣的。不过新闻搞错了，因为它只涨了 58%，也许是将此与我建模预测 $7.00 的价格混淆了 https://t.co/FegV7lXxdi
英文原文
@basedinwv Found this amusing for $VLN. News got it wrong though since it’s only up 58%, maybe it conflates that with me modeling it for $7.00 https://t.co/FegV7lXxdi
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回顾组合收益来源，反思仓位大小及交易策略。
谢谢！$OSS 和 $AXTI 是我投资组合中较小的部分。事后看来，我本应建立更大的头寸规模。我大部分的收益来自于利用投资组合保证金(portfolio margin)买入那些从去年高点下跌 50-70% 并在 1 月效应(Jan effect)中反弹的股票，如 $GLXY，以及像 $SOFI 或 $ASTS 这样仅下跌 10%+ 的交易性机会。除了可能 $CRDO 之外，我通常不发布我的做空(short trades)交易，而它从两天前已经上涨了超过 7%。
英文原文
Thanks! $OSS and $AXTI are smaller parts of my portfolio. I should have taken larger position sizes though in hindsight. Most of my gains came from portfolio margin into stocks that dropped 50-70% from last year into Jan effect like $GLXY, then just 10%+ trading drops like $SOFI or $ASTS. I don’t really post my short trades though aside from maybe $CRDO, which is up over 7% from two days ago
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博主回应他人并分享自己年内投资表现良好。
@moninvestor 年内的表现真不错！我自己也做得相当不错 https://t.co/pWPsMiM2Rl
英文原文
@moninvestor Nice YTD! I’m doing pretty well myself https://t.co/pWPsMiM2Rl
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澄清无前瞻指引，仅为旧合同及收入递延反应
@4drant 没有前瞻性指引。这纯粹是对一年前签订的合同以及一个季度收入递延的反应。
英文原文
@4drant There’s no forward guidance. This is solely a reaction to the contracts made a year ago with one quarter revenue deferral.
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博主分享持仓 $AVAV 和 $UMAC，并解释发帖偏好。
@LibertadEterno 我一直在持有 $AVAV 和 $UMAC。不过并非每只股票都值得专门发帖，上面提到的那些是我的最爱。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno I’ve been riding $AVAV and $UMAC. Not every one deserves a post though, the ones above were my favorites.
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作者对比了CRDO的抄底难度与SNDK/MU的持有策略，并提及AIRO反弹案例。
谢谢，不过 Credo 对我来说更多是个人交易标的。但当走势像“飞刀”时（$CRDO 上月以来下跌超 35%），真的很难抄底。相比之下，全仓转入 $SNDK 和 $MU 然后不动它要容易得多。像 $AIRO 这种看似“飞刀”的标的后来反弹了 48%，所以如果操作得当，抄底其实很赚钱。不过我们得看看我的解读是否正确，我很享受用市场来测试自己的理论。
英文原文
Thanks, Credo is personally more of a trade for me though. But it's really hard to time the bottoms when things look like a falling knife ( $CRDO down 35%+ since last month). Much easier to just full port it into $SNDK and $MU and just not touch it. Stuff like $AIRO looked like a falling knife too then recovered 48%, so bottom catching is quite profitable if done right. We'll see if my interpretation is correct though, I have a fun time testing my own theories against the markets.