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质疑小型矿企转型算力基建能力，对比巨头与同行效率。
$ORCL 未能匹配这些算力，而它是一家市值 8000 亿美元的公司。你是在赌那些市值 30 亿至 150 亿美元的小型加密货币矿企转型后能建成这些设施。$CRWV 花了数年时间并通过数十亿美元的收购才勉强实现运营，即便如此，根据其白皮书，$NBIS 的利用率仍更高。
英文原文
$ORCL failed to match these capacities and it's a $800B company. You're betting that a lot of these small $3-$15B crypto miners pivoting can build it out. $CRWV took years and billions of dollars in acquisitions to make it sort of work and even after that, $NBIS has higher utilization as per their whitepaper.
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认为NBIS软件护城河深，非对称收益优于IREN等转型矿工。
我不同意，软件编排（Software Orchestration）可能是最大的护城河之一，这就是为什么在我看来，$NBIS 的非对称上行潜力明显优于 $IREN。但各有所好！ 我同意 $IREN 因部署的吉瓦（GW）规模略大，潜在上行空间稍高，但在利润率方面的执行风险要大得多。 关于 $IREN 未来的财报，我认为市场将痛苦地发现，Nebius 目前的编排能力和客户多样性构成了巨大的护城河。 $ORCL 作为最大的算力公司之一，据 TI 报道，其最近的建设亏损超过 1 亿美元。这主要归因于软件、GPU 编排和客户基础。内部文件显示其毛利率约为 14%（而 $NBIS 上季度为 71.2%）。 如果最大的超大规模云服务商都做不好，而人们仍指向 $CRWV 支持比特币矿工转型（尽管他们花费数十亿用于软件收购且转型耗时数年），那么你可能低估了这个巨大的护城河。 此外，软件利用率/编排的重要性比廉价电力高约 30-70 倍（我在另一条评论中算过账）。 部署的兆瓦/吉瓦规模确实给矿工带来更高的上行空间，但当 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称回报和产能时，去猜测这些比特币矿工能否转向高利润率是没有意义的，这是我的观点。
英文原文
I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own! I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins. When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat. $ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter). If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating. Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment). Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.
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软件利用率对AI算力利润的影响远超廉价电力成本。
$NBIS 拥有廉价电力，但可能不如 $IREN 或 $CIFR 便宜。但为了让你明白为什么这没那么重要： 软件利用率/编排(Orchestration)是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高出约 30-70 倍。（请有人核实一下这个数学计算） 一张 H100 功耗约 0.84 千瓦。在 0.05 美元/千瓦时的电价下，成本为 0.04 美元/GPU-小时；即使在 0.10 美元/千瓦时，成本也仅为 0.08 美元/GPU-小时。 鉴于租赁价格约为 4 美元/GPU-小时，电力成本仅占收入的 1-2%。但将利用率从 50% 提升到 85%，会使单 GPU 收入增加 70%，从而大幅改变利润率。 不过，如果你拥有像 $CRWV 那样的所有组件（除了他们的坏账问题），那就是另一回事了，但这巨大的投机性赌注在于所有矿工能否建成这些设施。
英文原文
$NBIS has access to cheap power, but it might not be as cheap as $IREN or $CIFR. But just to give you a sense of why it matters a lot less: Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. (someone pls fact check the math) A H100 burns ~0.84 kW. At $0.05 / kWh, that’s $0.04 / GPU-hour; even at $0.10 / kWh it’s $0.08 / GPU-hour. With rental prices of ~$4 / GPU-hour, power is just 1–2 % of revenue. But going from 50% to 85% utilization changes revenue per GPU by +70%, swinging margins massively. Then again if you have all the components like $CRWV (aside from their bad debt), then that's a different story, but it's a huge speculative gamble that all the miners can build that out.
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NBIS凭借低运营成本和高毛利率建立护城河，资金将从Oracle等竞争对手回流。
我曾讨论过 $NBIS 在大幅降低运营支出(opex)和提升利润率方面的内部护城河。这转化为定价权，因为他们可以收取更低的价格+获得更高利润+更高的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)可用于收购和投资（例如 Clickhouse）。Oracle 正在持续进行建设，据 TI 称这导致他们损失了 1 亿多美元。随着执行层面在 6 个月后的表现与当前的投机形成对比，我们可能会看到转向(miners pivoting)的矿工（CRWV 花了数年时间构建其技术栈+数十亿美元用于收购）毛利率恶化，资金将回流至 Nebius。$NBIS -> 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的毛利率。
英文原文
I was talking about $NBIS internal moat on reducing opex a ton + increased margins. This translates to pricing power since they can charge less + make more + higher EBITDA they can use for acquisitions + investments (eg. clickhouse) Oracle is ongoing with their buildout and it turned out to lose them $100m+ as per TI. We'll likely see worse gross margins on miners pivoting (CRWV spent years on building out their stack + billions on acquisition) and money flow back into Nebius when it comes to execution in 6 months time vs. speculation currently. $NBIS -> highest gross margins out of any Neocloud.
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NBIS凭借利润率与全栈软件护城河，在Neocloud竞争中胜出。
公平地说，比特币矿工确实有很多炒作。我猜测所有的 Neocloud 都会一起上涨。 但最终能脱颖而出的是在 ER（执行率/执行能力）期间的表现。$NBIS 凭借利润率和高护城河最终位居榜首。 全栈+软件编排是一个被误解的护城河。连 $ORCL 都没能做好，他们在建设上损失了1亿美元。
英文原文
Fair, there's a lot of hype around Bitcoin miners. My guess is every Neocloud will go up together anyway. But what ends up on top is execution during ER. $NBIS ends up on top due to margins and defensibility. Full stack + software orchestration is a misunderstood moat. Even $ORCL couldn't get it right and they lost $100m on buildout.
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看好NBIS下跌后的世代性机会，认为其将跑赢IREN。
@YNWA_AB 是的，我通常很少发单一个股的内容，但我觉得 $NBIS 现在是一个世代性的机会，尤其是在下跌30%之后。我看到 $IREN 和其他公司的上涨潜力，但认为 Nebius 将大幅跑赢。
英文原文
@YNWA_AB Yeah I normally don't do much single-stock posts, but just feel like $NBIS is a generational opportunity right now, especially on the 30% drop. I see the upside for $IREN and others, but feel like Nebius will strong outperform.
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看好NBIS非对称上行潜力，决定集中持仓。
@genZinvest0r 确实，$NBIS 的投资者就是更优越。 说笑归说笑，这并非赢家通吃的局面，例如云计算（Azure、AWS、GCP 等）。 但，我一直对 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力更看好，并认为我应该言行一致，将资金集中配置于此。
英文原文
@genZinvest0r True, $NBIS investors are just superior. Jokes aside it's not winner takes all eg. cloud (Azure, AWS, GCP, etc). But, I've always been more bullish on $NBIS in terms of asymmetrical upside and thought I should just put my money where my mouth is + focus concentration on it.
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清仓其他Neocloud重仓$NBIS，认为其全栈优势及无债结构使其优于同行。
Neocloud持仓更新，10月24日周五。 发这条推文是为了向$IREN和其他Neocloud（新云）持有者传达一个信息： 👑 $NBIS更胜一筹。 我已清仓其他Neocloud股票：$CIFR获利250%+，$IREN、$BITF、$WYFI获利50-100%+，$WULF亏损5-10%。 目前我在$NBIS股票/LEAPS（长期期权）上的敞口超过200万美元，并持有少量$WLAC仓位。如果$NBIS股价维持在115美元，下周我会继续加仓Nebius。 我通常不发布卖出操作，但最近有很多烦人的Neocloud帖子声称他们的才是最好的。所以我发这条是为了传达$NBIS在不对称上行潜力方面明显更优，且已锁定Mag7（科技七巨头）订单。因此，分散投资其他Neocloud毫无意义。 NBIS通过全栈/GPU利用率及多元化用户，可能拥有最高的利润率护城河。其子公司+投资组合公司（AI数据库、机器人/配送等）正随其运营业务同步扩张。此外，没有侵蚀利润率的不良利息债务。 只需等待一年获得另一个超大规模云厂商合同，就有轻松获得300%收益和1000亿美元+市值的明确路径。去推测比特币挖矿转型的毛利率毫无意义（看看$ORCL仅因GPU利用率+建设->收入滞后就损失1亿美元+），即使某些公司可能有更大的容量。 所以只想说：Nebius是THE Neocloud。🫳🎙️
英文原文
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115. I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds. NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins. There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity. So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙️
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建议不要在市场波动时卖出通信芯片股票。
@justchilling40 不要在暴跌和反弹时卖出通信芯片(CC)。我这周没有卖出任何一只。
英文原文
@justchilling40 Don't sell CCs on crashes + recovery. I haven't sold any this week.
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公开披露往往伴随股价高估，非买入信号，应提前独立决策。
@jeanli28 @itsthesquonky 当像 $OPEN 这样被披露时，股价可能已经涨得太多了。这并不是一个好的买入信号，人们应该在任何大幅上涨之前做出自己的决定，所以这没什么值得庆祝的，尤其是 Jane Street 哈哈。
英文原文
@jeanli28 @itsthesquonky The moment it’s disclosed like $OPEN it’s probably run up too much. Its not a good buy signal, people should be making their own decisions before any major run up, so its not something to be celebrating, especially Jane street lol
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博主首次关注LITE，计划周末研究。
@itsthesquonky 第一次听说 $LITE，看起来很有趣，我周末会研究一下。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky First time I’ve heard of $LITE, seems interesting I’ll take a look over the weekend
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更正股数并强调大规模禁售解禁带来的抛压风险
@DeepValueBagger 哎呀抱歉，是1.377亿股而不是1.57亿股。不过如果4倍流通盘(4x the float)变为可抛售压力，观点依然成立。如此大规模的禁售期(lockup)解禁从来都不是好事 https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Whoops sorry it’s 137.7M shares not 157M. Point still stands though if 4x the float becomes available as selling pressure. It’s never a good thing for that big of a lockup https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX
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警告 $CRCL 12 月巨额解禁风险，建议做空并做多 $COIN 对冲。
对 $CRCL 发出重大警告，尤其是临近 12 月 2 日。你交易的是一个低流通盘(low float)股票。 Circle 在 IPO 中以 31 美元的价格售出了 3400 万股 A 类股。目前 A 类股总股本为 202,550,578 股。 所有流通 A 类股中的 77.6%（1.57 亿/2.0255 亿）以及约 463% 的 IPO 流通盘将在 12 月解禁(unlocked)。 如果非要操作，我建议在事件发生前做空 $CRCL 并做多 $COIN 作为对冲(hedge)。
英文原文
Huge warning on $CRCL, especially going into December 2nd. You're trading on a low float. Circle sold 34M Class A shares in the IPO at $31. There's 202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding. 77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) and ~463% of the 34M IPO float will be unlocked in December. If anything I'd go short + long COIN as hedge during before the event.
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分析Nebius收入滞后及估值，预测1年内市值达1000亿美元。
是的，完全确认收入可能存在约12-16个月的滞后，但来自 $MSFT 交易的季度收入很可能在2026年Q4和2027年Q1实现。如果 Nebius 完全停止增长，该季度收入同比将增长1000%+至12.25亿美元/季度（约49亿美元 ARR）。当然，这是一家超大规模扩展公司，所以我预计另一个 Mag7 交易加上其他企业/SMB客户会推高这一数字（这就是我们如何在1年内达到1000亿美元市值的原因）。此外，我使用了6-8倍的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入）和15-25倍的 EV/EBITDA（企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润），这是保守的，而非10-15倍的 P/S（市销率）。这是核心业务（例如，330亿美元核心业务中位数 + 从分部加总（现金、GPU、Clickhouse等资产）折价40%），如果没有任何数字增长，今天的中位数约为390亿美元。
英文原文
Yep, there's probably ~12-16 month-ish revenue lag for full recognition but quarterly revenue with $MSFT deal would likely be realized Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. With that Q revenue would increase over 1000%+ Y/Y to $1.225B/quarter (~$4.9B ARR) if Nebius stopped growing completely. But of course this is a hyper-scaling company, so I'd expect another Mag7 deal + other enterprise/SMB clients to bring that number up (which is how we get to $100B MC from here in 1 year time) Also, I used EV/Revenue of 6–8× and EV/EBITDA of 15–25, which is conservative not P/S multiple of 10-15. This was the core business (eg. $33B core business midpoint + 40% discounted from sum of parts (cash, GPUs, assets like clickhouse), which would put it to ~$39B today midpoint if there's zero growth in any number.
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肯定免费内容价值，指出圈外散户可能因缺乏认知而亏损。
@MB_Hogan 是的，对于 $NBIS 你确实做到了。许多 X 账号发布的免费教育内容非常有帮助。然而，这个圈子之外的许多散户投资者可能亏了一些钱或者卖掉了他们的头寸。
英文原文
@MB_Hogan Yep you did for $NBIS, the free educational content a lot of X accounts put out is extremely helpful. However a lot of retail investors outside of this community probably lot a bit of money or sold their positions.
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确认多位博主得出相似数据并致谢。
@yianisz 是的，许多其他金融X账号（如 @DeepValueBagger）也得出了与你和我相似的数字。感谢分享。
英文原文
@yianisz Yep a lot of other finx accounts like @DeepValueBagger came to a similar figure as you and I did. Thanks for sharing
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解析机构利用期权对冲放大波动并低位吸筹，散户恐慌后股价反弹。
DW，Reddit 总是被关注。但我不认为“市场操纵”是合适的措辞。我的猜测是：板块做空时机与 The Information 的负面报道相吻合 -> 机构利用做市商(MM)对手方卖出短期看涨和看跌期权带来的机械对冲，来放大下行风险（加上上周的磁吸效应）。 随后几个红色交易日后 -> 散户恐慌性抛售至 $94 -> 机构在不推动价格的情况下吸纳卖盘。 随着更多数据浮现，事实证明机构在底部积累的判断相当准确。看来弱手已被洗出，现在我们将走高，但 FinX 社区可能从这次回调中赚了不少钱。
英文原文
DW, Reddit is always regarded. But I don't think market manipulation is a good way to word it. My guess was sector short timed with The Information hit piece -> instituions taking advantage of mechanical hedging from MMs from counterparty selling of shortdated calls + puts to exaggerate downside (+ pinning from last week) Then few red days after -> retail panic selling to $94 -> institutions soaking up sales without moving prices. And with more data surfacing, turned out to be pretty accurate with institutional accumulation at bottom. Weak hands got shaken off I guess and now we go higher, but FinX community probably made a lot of money off the dip.
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机构借恐慌在暗池增持 $NBIS，基本面支撑其 390 亿估值。
本周散户恐慌导致 $NBIS 暴跌至 94 美元。 不幸的是，许多散户不在本社区内，仅因股价下跌（混合做市商机械对冲）便在恐惧中抛售。 过去两天，Nebius 股价反弹超 17%。 这就是为什么信念 + 基本面/知识 > 股价。 下跌期间，机构通过暗池(dark pools)等渠道悄悄入场增持。 _ 基本面上，Nebius 被严重低估。我对 $NBIS 的基础估值约为 390 亿美元，若再获一家超大规模云厂商合作，一年内有望达 1000 亿美元。 Nebius 为微软 Azure 等未来超大规模基础设施提供算力。机构深知这一点，并将不惜一切代价增持这家全球算力核心公司的股份。 如果散户不能从基本面建立信念，也不理解机构如何利用暗池、期权流向等在不扰动价格的情况下积累筹码，他们就会纯粹因恐惧而非实质性变化而投降。 正如我在今日 Seeking Alpha 文章《Nebius 回调，聪明钱的入场点》中指出： “WhaleStream 报告显示约 1 亿美元净流入集中在 103.90 美元附近，显示新的机构兴趣。 Fintel 数据（源自 Nasdaq、FINRA 和 Capital IQ）证实，场外做空比率接近 19%，强化了机构通过暗池大量买入 Nebius 的观点。 实际上，这支持了大部分 Nebius 买入是通过暗池悄悄进行的观点，这与观察到的看涨期权积累相一致。” 积累是战略性的，但隐藏在明处。不要被震仓出局。
英文原文
This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94. Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone. In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%. This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price. During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods. _ Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership. Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute. If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes. As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point": "WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options." Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.
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反驳“当前价格已充分反映”观点，强调市场低效带来的套利机会。
他们什么都没搞对。“当前价格已充分反映。”这完全是错的。 他在寻找超额收益的方向上是对的，但想用一些Instagram风格的励志语录。 如果当前价格总是被正确定价，就没人能通过利用市场低效来赚钱了。 不久前，由于市场未能正确定价，套利 $BULL 股票与认股权证就是白捡的钱。或者像 $UPWK 这样大量被错估的股票，以低于6.5倍的市盈率交易，却拥有庞大的现金资产负债表和增长。
英文原文
They didn't nail anything. "The present is already priced." This is literally wrong. He's correct directionally finding alpha, but wanted to use some Instagram style inspirational quote. If the present were always correctly priced, nobody would make money exploiting market inefficiencies. It was free money arbitraging $BULL shares vs. warrants not too long ago due to markets not pricing things in correctly. Or tons of misvalued equities like $UPWK trading way trading under 6.5 P/E with large cash balance sheets and growth.
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AI非泡沫因有收入支撑，量子核能属投机，降息后或现狂热。
@accounting_ds @soulbiri1 目前肯定还不是人工智能(AI)的狂热(euphoria)或泡沫，因为大多数公司都有远期收入支撑。量子/核能目前是一个投机性泡沫，关键矿产(critical minerals)可能也是。我们可能在三次降息后才会看到狂热的真正含义。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @soulbiri1 It’s definitely not euphoria in AI or a bubble yet since most are backed by forward revenue. Quantum/nuclear is a speculative bubble to right now, possibly critical minerals. We might see the true meaning of euphoria after triple rate cut
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Nebius机构正借散户恐慌在暗池吸筹，基本面强劲，属买入良机。
@MB_Hogan 哈哈，关于暗池流入的第1点，正是我在底部时大声疾呼的内容。不幸的是，许多散户被洗出局了，不过这篇总结帖很棒！
英文原文
@MB_Hogan lol point #1 with dark pool inflows what I was screaming at the bottom Unfortunately a lot of retail got wiped out, great summary post though! https://t.co/tC4HCQ9B3a
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提及短期资本利得税及合法避税途径因人而异。
@jeanli28 @accounting_ds 是的，短期资本利得税。有合法途径可以降低税务负担，但这取决于每个人及其所在地区。
英文原文
@jeanli28 @accounting_ds Yeah short term capital gains tax. There's legal ways to reduce tax liabilities, but depends on each person + location.
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分析CIFR稀释影响，建议NBIS短线获利但长线持有。
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR 在约 16 美元时经历了 16% 的稀释，现在又回到了 19 美元，如果触及可转换票据（Convertible Note）编号，情况并非末日般糟糕。对于短期交易而言，在 140 美元左右获利了结 $NBIS 这类股票是明智之举，但我坚持其 1000 亿美元市值（Market Cap）的目标，因此我个人至少会持有 1 年。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR hit 16% dilution at $16 or so and now it's back at $19, it's not doom and gloom if it hits convertible note number. For short term trading, it's a smart to take profits on stuff like $NBIS at $140, but I stand by $100B MC so I'm personally holding 1 year min.
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博主分享净资产来源及从加密交易转向帮助他人的心路历程。
@accounting_ds 我99.9%的净资产来自公司股票，因为我经营着一家金融科技(fintech)公司。 我大约在2016-2017年左右开始，当时比特币(Bitcoin)价格在3000美元左右，以太坊(ETH)约35美元。 不过过去两年我一直在积极进行日内/波段交易(day-swing trading)，起初主要是为了好玩，但现在通过帮助他人我获得了更多的成就感。
英文原文
@accounting_ds 99.9% of my net worth comes from company equity, since I run a fintech company. I started in ~2016-2017 or so when Bitcoin was $3k, ETH ~$35. I've been actively day-swing trading last 2 years though, mainly for fun but now I get more fulfillment helping others.
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博主买入NBIS看涨期权，以真金白银验证其投资信念。
@accounting_ds 是的，人们可以称之为疯狂，但我没看到他们在 $NBIS 上采取任何头寸。我在过去两周购买了价值 50 多万美元的看涨期权，所以我用真金白银为我的观点背书。我只是记录下我的思维过程，即我是如何建立这种信念的。
英文原文
@accounting_ds Yeah, people can call it crazy but I don't see them taking any positions on $NBIS. I bought $500k+ calls in the last two weeks so I put my money where my mouth is. I'm just writing down my train of thoughts in terms of how I developed my conviction.
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Nebius凭借全栈软件及运营效率，在利润率上优于纯容量型AI云厂商。
就纯上行潜力而言，$IREN 仅因纯粹的吉瓦(GW)容量而颇具前景。然而，$NBIS 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)。 随着最近发布的 Nebius 白皮书，他们公布了一些关于 GPU 利用率等数据。其全栈软件(full stack software)加上涵盖初创企业和中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化其运营支出(opex)，这是人们对其如何最大化 GPU 利润率的误解性护城河(misunderstood moat)。 人们试图将矿工(miners)框架化为潜在的转型者，但如果我们看看 $ORCL 的建设情况，他们在利润率转化上挣扎（建设后的 GPU 利用率等）。拥有其他软件层会压缩利润率，$CRWV 对此深有体会，这也是他们近期花费数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，原始容量并不总能转化为良好的利润率。全栈能力+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户，使 Nebius 具有明显优势。
英文原文
So in terms of raw upside, $IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity. However, $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return out of any Neocloud. With the recent Nebius whitepaper, they published a bit about GPU utilization, etc. Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is a misunderstood moat in terms of how they maximize margins from GPUs. People try to frame miners as potential pivots but if we look at $ORCL builtout, they were struggling with margins that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers like compresses margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins. So being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs gives Nebius a clear edge.
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反驳AI算力溢出消失论，强调结构性增长及电网瓶颈。
既然有人@我，我不同意你作为TAM（总可寻址市场）基础的根本假设，但你的观点有合理之处。 AI算力增长实际上是一个结构性市场，目前正因前沿大语言模型(LLM)的使用而呈指数级增长，并将随着应用AI（机器人等）继续增长。暗示MSFT/Google的5-10年合同确认的使用量“溢出”（临时流动性）会消失是误导性的。 如果你想改述为Neoclouds目前捕获的溢出在超大规模云厂商完成建设后可能不存在，我同意。5-10年后我会更担心（在GCP 10年合同和Azure 5年合同结束后）。特别是当$AVGO与超大规模云厂商的定制ASIC、TPU/Tranium等+建设完成后。（作为交易者，我在2年周期内看涨，5年以上则不那么看多）。 第二点是试图对AI建设这样投机性的事物进行TAM的定量建模是错误的研究方法。 此外，10-15%的数据过于悲观，因为它忽略了如果AI算力是增长的结构性市场，超大规模云厂商的重复溢出。但你基于电网容量会跟上的假设，我不同意，这没问题。
英文原文
Since someone pinged me, I disagree on your fundamental assumption that you're basing TAM off of, but valid points. AI compute growth is actually a structural market that's growing exponentially right now fro new frontier model LLM usage, and will continue to grow from applied AI applications (robotics, etc). Implying MSFT/Google's 5-10 year contracts confirmed usage contracts "overflow" that will vanish (temporary liquidity) is misleading. If you wanted to reword it in saying the overflow that Neoclouds captured now might not exist after hyperscalers complete their buildout, sure. I'd agree with you, next 5Y-10Y out I'd be more worried (after GCP 10y contracts end of Azure 5Y contracts end). Especially when $AVGO x Hyperscaler custom asics, TPUs/Tranium, etc + buildout gets complete. (As a trader I'm bullish on a 2 year timeframe, not so much 5Y+ plus). Second thing is trying to quantitatively model TAM of something so speculative such as AI buildout is the wrong way to approach it. On top of that, the 10-15% figure is overly pessimistic because it ignores repeat-overflow from hyperscalers if AI compute is a growing structural market. But you're going off the assumption grid capacity will catch up, which I disagree, and that's fine.
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论证NBIS估值偏低，指出即使零增长其市值仍有大幅上涨空间。
1. 不，我说的是 $NBIS 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡可能存在一些收入滞后，但合同将在 2026 年底至 2027 年期间兑现，且其现有数据加上微软处于 $49 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）的基准情形，我估计即使没有增长，其市值（MC）也比当前高出 62.5%。 我使用零增长作为例子，仅仅是为了展示该业务本身在结构上被低估的程度。 2. 这是一个关于如何达到 1000 亿市值的高层概述，而非全面分析。我在括号中提到未深入探讨 GPU 折旧和电力容量问题。但总体而言，即使是旧款 GPU 也能保持价值并继续提供收益。
英文原文
1. No i said there’s likely some revenue lag on $NBIS $MSFT ramp up but the contract will play out by late 2026 and into 2027 and their existing numbers + MSFT is at the base case $4.9B ARR, which id estimate is +62.5% from here MC wise if there were no growth. I use 0 growth as an example just to show how structurally undervalued the business is as is. 2. This was a high level overview on how we get to $100B MC not a full blown analysis. I mentioned in brackets I didn’t go into GPU depreciation and power capacity. But generally with GPUs even older models keep their value and still deliver equity.
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NBIS核心业务估值扎实，若获新云厂商合同，市值有望年内破千亿。
你说得对，分部估值之和(Sum of Parts)确实会更高。 撇开子公司不谈，其核心运营业务在零增长的基础情景下，未来两年年化经常性收入(ARR)为50亿美元，毛利率为60-70%。 然而它仍在增长，若能再签下一家超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的合同，$NBIS 一年内市值轻松突破1000亿美元。
英文原文
You’re right, sum of parts would be worth more. Subsidaries aside, the main operational business which at the base case no growth for the next two years is 5B ARR, 60-70% gross margins. However it’s still growing and with one more hyperscaler contract, NBIS can easily be $100b+ in a year
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .