· 个股论点
涉及标的： $NBIS
同意，在股价下跌35%且财报大爆后，虽然期权已接近价内(ITM)，但此时做空$NBIS的看涨期权(CC)并非明智之举。 即将迎来众多催化剂，例如4天内MSCI指数将带来数亿至十亿美元级别的资金流入。相对于市值/流通盘而言，这一规模极大。 此外，AI板块的涨势在12月前依然完好，且过去两周做市商的对冲操作带来了机械性的向上资金流。既然散户已投降触底，且机构据实时指标已积累约50%的流通盘（尽管官方13F文件显示为44-46%），随着70-90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)预期的基本面匹配，可能会迎来一波有趣的上涨行情。
agreed, not a good idea to write $NBIS CC's though so close to ITM on a 35% drop + blowout earnings. There's too many catalysts coming up like few hundred - low billion inflow from MSCI in 4 days. This is extremely large relative to marketcap/float. Then we have AI rally in-tact in time for December and mechanical flows upward from all the dealer hedging downward the past two weeks. Now that we've hit the bottom with retail capitulation and institution managed to accumulate ~50% of the float (according to some live metrics) was ~44-46% from official 13F filings though, might be a fun rally upward to match fundamentals from $7-9B ARR projections.