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建议忽略WLAC盘前盘后波动，因其价差过宽。
@capybara_830 $WLAC 的买卖价差非常宽。我会直接忽略盘前或盘后的任何交易活动。
英文原文
@capybara_830 $WLAC has very wide spreads. I’d just ignore any after hours or pre market activity
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澄清LAC虽非美企，但对AI基建至关重要。
@pippin_47 @regard_capital 你说得对。但 $LAC 是加拿大公司。我说的是它对国家安全及基础设施建设至关重要。 如果是美国制造，可能会优先考虑像 $TE 这样的公司。 也许它不是国家安全梯队列表中的最佳公司，但无论怎样都对 AI 基础设施建设至关重要。
英文原文
@pippin_47 @regard_capital You’re right. But $LAC was Canadian. I said critical to national security and buildout. If this was Made in America, would probably prioritize other companies like $TE. Maybe not the best company to put on the national security tier list but critical to AI buildout regardless
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美国政府持股AI公司，预示国家安全战略支持，抑制机构做空。
该帖的核心在于深入分析美国政府持有 $IONQ 和 $RGTI 头寸的潜在影响。此前美国曾持有关键矿物公司及英特尔的头寸，鉴于美国通常避免持有私营企业股权，此举令人惊讶。AI 基础设施建设（数据中心、能源）如 $NBIS 及其他领域属于国家安全问题。鉴于美国政府开始为关乎国家利益的战略性公司和行业提供背书，我们不太可能再看到针对相关领域的机构做空行为。
英文原文
The point of the post was an analysis one step deeper into potential affects on US government taking positions in $IONQ, $RGTI. Previously the US took positions in critical mineral companies + Intel and it’s surprising given that US usually stays away taking equity in private companies. AI buildout (data center, energy) like $NBIS and other sectors are national security issues. And we’re less likely to see institutional shorting into adjacent sectors now that the US gov is starting to backstop companies and sectors strategic to national interests.
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博主向 @cuijiaxun 致歉并询问联系方式以便提问。
@cuijiaxun 嘿，关于 Meta 的情况很抱歉。我知道你现在肯定被各种请求淹没了，但如果你有时间，我很想问几个问题。想知道我该如何给你发消息。
英文原文
@cuijiaxun Hey, sorry about the Meta situation. I know you're getting flooded with requests right now, but I'd love to ask a few questions if you have some time. Was wondering how I can message you.
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美国政府入股量子等国安企业，引发空头回补与机构重配。
突发：美国政府拟收购量子计算公司股权，这是巨大的游戏规则改变者。 国家安全概念股——AI ($NBIS)、能源 ($TE)、太空 ($RKLB)、矿产 ($MP)、量子 ($RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS)——可能迎来剧烈反转，空头将疯狂平仓，做市商(Market Makers)的对冲操作也将机械性推高股价。 我们观察到一个清晰的趋势：华盛顿正在向国家安全公司投入数十亿美元，范围从关键矿产扩展到量子计算，并可能涉及其他领域。 特朗普政府购买对国家安全至关重要的各公司股权，可能引发机构显著重新配置仓位，因为基金和算法正在重新评估做空与美国政府在稀土、量子、AI等领域建设挂钩资产的风险。 机构和做市商(MMs)可能会针对散户做空，但他们绝不会对美国政府的资产负债表下注。
英文原文
Breaking: U.S. Government moves to take stakes in quantum computing firms, a huge game-changer. National security names - AI ( $NBIS ), Energy ( $TE ), Space ( $RKLB ), Minerals ( $MP ), Quantum ( $RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover and MM hedging mechanically goes upward. We now see a clear trend: Washington is deploying billions into national security companies, expanding from critical minerals to quantum computing, and likely to others. The Trump administration buying equity of various firms critical to national security could trigger significant institutional repositioning, as funds and algorithms rethink the risks of shorting assets tied to the U.S. government's buildout of rare earths, quantum, AI, etc. Institutions and MMs may short against retail, but they never bet against the U.S. Government's balance sheet.
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市场高波成长股普跌，深度超卖股如NBIS现买入良机。
是的，现在对许多投资者来说确实是一段艰难时期，$HOOD 跌 7%，$RKLB 跌 10%，$TE 跌 13%，$CIFR 跌 15%，许多量子计算概念股单日下跌 20%。这对大多数人来说压力很大。 任何高贝塔值(高波动性)/成长型股票都遭到重创。 但积极的一面是，如果像 $NBIS 这样已经深度超卖且进一步被抛售的股票，就会转化为绝佳的买入机会。希望这对你们有利，只是需要一点耐心！
英文原文
Yeah it's definitely rough times right now for a lot of investors, $HOOD down 7%, $RKLB down 10%, $TE down 13%, $CIFR down 15%, many quantum names down 20% all in a single day. Very stressful for most people. Anything high beta/growth got nuked together. But the positive thing is, if it's already deeply oversold + got sold off even more like $NBIS, then it turns into a great buying opportunity. I hope it plays out well for you, just requires a bit of patience!
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建议优先使用融资而非2倍杠杆ETF，因后者存在波动率损耗。
不，如果你可以使用融资(Margin)或期权(Options)，使用2倍杠杆ETF几乎没有任何好处。如果你想要相同的敞口，直接使用融资买入普通股即可。2倍杠杆ETF存在波动率损耗(Volatility Decay)，因此不适合长期持有。 也许如果你无法在IRA中使用融资，或者你的维持保证金要求(Margin Maintenance)极高（例如80%），那么使用它是可以理解的。
英文原文
No, there's almost no benefit for 2x leveraged etfs if you have margin or options. Just go with common stock on margin if you want the same exposure. 2x leveraged ETFs have volatility decay so it's not good to hold. Maybe if you cant have margin in an ira or something and have super high margin maintenance like 80% it's understandable.
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解析$NBIS暴跌机制：做市商对冲加剧波动，机构借机暗池吸筹。
对于 $NBIS，散户很可能基于未平仓合约大量购买了云服务商(CSP)相关的短期看涨期权。 当做市商(MM)作为交易对手方时，会加剧任何价格波动。在此案例中，它放大了下行走势，大型对冲基金很可能在较高价位（可能配合针对 $ORCL 及整个板块的内幕负面报道）初期做空。 做市商的机械式对冲导致当 Nebius 股价在 135-140 美元区间时价格急剧下跌。 散户在看到几天红盘（下跌）后卖出股票只是自然结果。但散户卖出是愚蠢的，因为基本面将压倒任何机械对冲资金流。 我在另一篇帖子中提到，散户恐慌性抛售影响的是最后成交价。机构能够通过暗池和大宗交易在不影响公开账本的情况下进行更多积累。
英文原文
With $NBIS, retail likely did a lot of CSP + short dated calls from open interest. When MMs act as the counterpart, it exacerbates any movement. In this case, it amplified downward movement, with large hedge fund likely shorting initially at higher prices (probably timed with The Insider hit piece like with $ORCL and the whole sector short). There's mechanical hedging from MMs which causes sharply price to drop when Nebius was around $135-$140. Retail selling their shares after seeing few days of red is just a natural consequence. But it's stupid for retail to sell fundamentals will outweigh any mechanical hedging flows. I mentioned in my other post that retail panic selling affects price last traded. Institutions are able to accumulate more without affecting open books through dark pools and block trades.
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作者因看好基本面在NBIS回调时加仓，并致力于普及机构投资方法论。
谢谢！我个人不太介意32%的回撤，因为我确信$NBIS仅凭基本面和现有合同就能恢复。所以我利用这段时间加仓。 但很多散户可能因为他们是追涨买入的而感到担忧。 所以我正尽力普及基本面以及做市商/机构用于构建投资组合规模的方法论，以便人们能做出更清晰的决策。
英文原文
Thanks! I personally don't mind a 32% drawdown as much since I'm confident $NBIS will recover purely based off of fundamentals and existing contracts. So I use this time to add more. But a lot of retail are probably worried because they bought off momentum. So I'm trying my best to spread awareness of fundamentals + tactics MMs/insitutions use to build up portfolio sizing so people can make clearer decisions.
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NBIS估值极低且基本面强劲，下跌是机构吸筹良机。
我之前说过，$NBIS 240亿美元的市值简直荒谬可笑。它在为 $MSFT Azure 和其他超大规模云服务商提供支持的同时，季度营收增长超1000%，一年内 ARR（年度经常性收入）达到40-60亿美元以上。此外，它拥有70%以上的毛利率，50多亿美元现金，以及数十亿投资于 Anthropic、Meta 等超高速增长投资组合公司的资产。我们还有历史上最大规模的数据中心建设（出于国家安全原因）、11/12月的季节性因素，以及今年仅剩的两次降息作为顺风。但正是在这种散户被清洗或“纸手”只看价格不看基本面的时候，机构才会进行积累。这就是为什么在没有实质性利空的情况下下跌7%感觉像是一份礼物，尽管这对短期数据有打击。
英文原文
I said this earlier but 24B market cap for $NBIS... which is scaling quarterly revenue 1000%+ to 4-6B+ ARR in just 1 year by powering $MSFT azure and other hyperscalers. While doing 70%+ gross margins, having $5B+ in cash, and billions in assets that go up over time in hyper-growth portfolio companies that power Anthropic, Meta, and other is laughable. We also have the largest data center buildout in history for national security reasons, Nov/Dec seasonality, and 2 more rate cuts this year alone as tailwind. But it's times like these where retail gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how institutions accumulate. That's why the 7% drop off no material changes feels like a gift, even though it's a short term hit to the numbers.
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NBIS遭错杀，基本面强劲，机构持仓将借机上升。
看起来目前高贝塔值(high-beta)股票也在全面抛售，从 $HOOD、$RKLB 到量子计算板块皆是如此。$NBIS 在其他股票之前就开始下跌，因此在原有 23%+ 跌幅的基础上再跌 7%，简直是雪上加霜。 一家正在将年化经常性收入(ARR)从数百美元扩展至 40-60 亿美元、毛利率约 60-75%、持有 50 亿美元以上现金、拥有投资组合公司数十亿所有权，且处于美国万亿美元数据中心建设浪潮中的公司，市值却只有 240 亿美元……这简直令人发笑。 但遗憾的是，正是在这样的时刻，散户被清洗或只看价格不看基本面的“纸手”投资者离场，从而使得机构持股比例随时间上升。我不惊讶于看到这个数字大幅上升。
英文原文
Looks like there's also a selloff across all high-beta stocks right now too from $HOOD, $RKLB, to quantum. $NBIS sold off before the others so the 7% drop today on top of the existing 23%+ drop is icing on the cake. 24B marketcap... for a company scaling hundreds of %+ to $4-6B ARR on ~60-75% gross margins, $5B+ in cash, ownership in the billions for portfolio companies, amidst the US trillion dollar data center buildout is laughable. But it's times like these where retail sadly gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how the ownership % goes up over time. Wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up a lot.
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持有NBIS看涨期权，看好降息与财报带来的反弹机会。
我继续持有1月/3月到期的看涨期权。如果一只股票在没有消息的情况下能在一周内下跌30%，那么像$NBIS这样高贝塔值的股票也可能在短时间内反弹43%。 我对两次降息、季节性因素以及财报依然保持信心。过去一个月没有重大新闻（只有利好消息），但让我们看看接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
I'm holding my Jan/Mar calls. If a stock can do down 30% in a week off no news, it can also go back up 43% in a short time with high beta stocks like $NBIS. I'm still confident with 2x rate cut, seasonality, and earnings. There's been no material news (only positive ones in the past month), but we'll see what happens.
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看好NBIS并加仓，认为TE若达成目标市值潜力巨大。
我对 $NBIS 持有最高的确信度，这也是为什么我很乐意尽可能大幅地进行成本平均（cost average leaps）。 我对其他能源板块标的没有同样的看法，不过 $TE 可能是其中最高的，因为如果它能实现管理层 2027 年 EBITDA 目标的一半，按 8 倍 EBITDA 估值倍数计算，其市值将从当前的 7 亿美元升至 52 亿美元。
英文原文
I have the highest conviction in $NBIS, which is why I'm happy to cost average leaps as much as possible. I don't have the same sentiment as other energy plays, $TE is probably highest though because if it delivers 1/2 of management EBITDA 2027 target, 8× EBITDA multiple would be 5.2B MC from the current $700m MC.
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博主逆势加仓$NBIS LEAPS，坚信基本面强劲，视暴跌为机构吸筹良机。
以$98.8的价格加仓了价值$200k的$NBIS LEAPS（长期股权预期权），行权价为2026年12月的$105。 Nebius在一周内从$140跌至$97，跌幅超30%，这可能会让你自我怀疑，但正是在这样的时刻，信念（Conviction）最为重要。 如果你理解基本面和行业，这就是天赐良机。
英文原文
Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike. Nebius dropping 30%+ in a week from $140 to $97 might make you second-guess yourself, but it’s times like these where conviction matters most. If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift. https://t.co/Yv0s3t1cuy
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博主称已投入30万美金看涨期权，以行动证明NBIS被极度低估。
@AnaCintra24 @MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 我大约在2个交易日前加了$300k的看涨期权(call options) lol。如果我说某物被极度低估，我会真金白银地证明我的观点。
英文原文
@AnaCintra24 @MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 I added $300k in call options like 2 trading days ago lol. If I say something is extremely undervalued, I put money where my mouth is. https://t.co/pKEHP8UhHh
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作者认为Nebius获超大规模云厂商注资后去风险，100美元仍被低估。
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 嗯，在 $MSFT 交易后建立投资信念(investing conviction)并没有错。 我在 $NBIS 低于 40 美元时就已持有，但直到一家超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)投入 170 多亿美元为公司去风险(de-risk)后，我才真正建立起信念。 话虽如此，每个人都有自己的观点，但我认为 Nebius 在 100 美元时仍被低估。
英文原文
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 Hmm, nothing wrong with developing conviction after the $MSFT deal. I had $NBIS sub $40 but only developed conviction after 17B+ from a hyperscaler de-risked the company. That said everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I just think Nebius is undervalued at $100.
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反驳外部优势论，强调全栈软件与运营效率才是NBIS高毛利护城河。
是的，我同意这种拆解。但我觉得你关注错了重点（外部竞争优势）。 他们全栈软件(software full stack)加上涵盖初创企业、中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化自身的运营支出(opex)，这本身就是护城河(moat)。 你提到了像 $IREN 这样的矿企(miners)，但如果看看 $ORCL，他们在利润率以及未能转化为实际效益的建设/转型（如建设后的GPU利用率等）方面曾举步维艰。拥有其他软件层也会降低利润率，$CRWV 就亲身经历了这一点，这也是他们近期斥资数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，拥有原始算力(raw capacity)并不总能转化为良好的利润率，就像 $NBIS 已经拥有的那样（如果我没记错的话，上次财报(ER)显示其毛利率为71.2%），这是全栈+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户带来的优势，而那些转型的矿企将不具备这一点。
英文原文
Yeah I’d agree with the breakdown. But think you’re focusing on the wrong thing (external competitive advantage). Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is the moat in and of itself. You mention miners like $IREN but if we look at $ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers also reduces margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins like what $NBIS already has (71.2% gross from last ER, if I remember correctly) being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs that miners that pivot won’t have.
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认为NBIS核心业务被低估，机构持仓将大幅上升。
抛开子公司不谈，仅看核心业务，我认为 $NBIS 被低估了。Nebius 在短短1年内从1亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）增长到10亿-15亿美元 ARR，这种增长速度令人震惊。这是小公司赋能 $GOOGL Cloud、$MSFT Azure、$AMZN Web Services 等基础设施的世代性机遇，而这些是 Mag7（美股七巨头）中最盈利的板块。散户并未看到这一机会。机构肯定看到了，我不惊讶于 Nebius 的机构持股比例从38%在6个月内升至65%。
英文原文
Subsidiaries aside and just the core business, I think $NBIS is undervalued. It is mindblowing how Nebius is growing from $100m ARR to $1B-1.5B in just 1Y. And this is a generational chance for small companies to power the infrastructure of $GOOGL Cloud, $MSFT Azure, $AMZN Web Services and others, the most profitable segments of Mag7. Retail doesn't see this opportunity. Institutions definitely do and I would not be surprised if Nebius was 65% owned by institutions from 38% in 6 months time.
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WSB是底部信号，长期方向准但短视，逆向操作需定力。
@AkaliOnYT 是的，/r/wallstreetbets 是 $NBIS 等股票的绝佳底部信号。他们对 $RKLB、$HOOD、$TSM 和 $MU 的长期方向判断往往正确，但注意力持续时间只有一个月。能说服自己采取相反操作是一项特殊技能。
英文原文
@AkaliOnYT Yeah /r/wallstreetbets is a great bottom signal for $NBIS and others. They’re often directionally right long term $RKLB, $HOOD, $TSM, and $MU but have 1 month long attention spans. It's a special skill to convince yourself to do the opposite.
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作者认为NBIS估值偏低，利好AI算力及供应链相关个股。
我礼貌地表示反对，“公允价值”应该更高。新的$NBIS数据中心将提升经常性收入(ARR)，三次降息是巨大的催化剂。刚刚，Anthropic可能与$GOOGL签署200亿美元以上的协议，这对Clickhouse、$WULF、$IREN和Neoclouds都是利好。$META与$CRWV的交易也是如此。Google/七巨头(Mag7)受算力限制，这对Nebius（尽管在此消息下仍下跌5.6%）是更大的催化剂，预计其将有更多超大规模云服务商合同落地。
英文原文
I respectfully disagree, "fair value" should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst. Just now, Anthropic might sign a $20B+ dollar deal with $GOOGL, which is bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds. $META x $CRWV deals. Google/Mag7 is compute limited, and this is only a bigger catalyst for Nebius (which is still down 5.6% despite this news), which likely has more hyperscaler contracts on the way.
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Nebius基本面强劲，机构正借散户恐慌低位吸筹，建议买入。
Nebius 的走势完全符合机构投资者的预期： 散户恐慌。 投降式抛售。 流动性释放。 我几周前就说过：$NBIS 的机构持股比例约为 38%。为了将这一比例提升至 65-80%（就像 $HOOD 那样），他们会不惜使用所有手段： 以下是发生这一切的原因： 在上个月微软（MSFT）达成 170-190 亿美元的交易后，Nebius 进入了华尔街的视野。在此之前，由于非传统的公开上市方式，其机构持股比例一直低于 30%。 与此同时，我们看到了 Nebius 基本面的爆发式增长： 1. 🚀 远期营收增长超 1,000%，毛利率达 55-75%，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 增至 40-60 亿美元以上。 2. 💼 拥有 Clickhouse 等公司的大量股权，后者为 Anthropic、Meta、Lyft 等提供支持。 3. ⚡ NBIS 为微软 Azure 以及可能更多的 Mag7 基础设施提供支持，这些是超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的现金牛。 4. 🌊 凭借全栈 + 软件 GPU 编排 (GPU Orchestration) 构建巨大护城河，从而带来更高的毛利率。 5. 💸 史上最大规模的数据中心建设，Meta 已与 CRWV 签约，其他超大规模云服务商紧随其后。我们看到了台积电 (TSM) 在此建设中的远期预测，数据惊人。 6. 🏦 三次降息提振了远期营收预测。 Nebius 是极具吸引力的买入标的，是一家百年一遇的公司，目前市值 260 亿美元，股价 100 美元。 我们在 Robinhood ($HOOD) 身上见过这种剧本：当股价为 20 美元时，曾出现低于市值目标价 50% 的情况和负面报道。然而，Robinhood 的季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增长至 9.5 亿 -10 亿美元，市值从 150 亿美元涨至 1300 亿美元，最终成为华尔街的宠儿。 华尔街和机构投资者清楚地看到 Nebius 未来一年的潜力，但尚未建立大量头寸。 然而，散户只看到下跌的股价、关于甲骨文 (Oracle) 试图进入该领域亏损 1 亿美元的耸人听闻的文章，以及当前 1 亿美元的营收数据，而非预测的季度营收 10 亿美元以上。 因此，即使价格看似因边际交易而下跌，即使更多股份被买入： 1. 散户恐慌性抛售，遭遇保证金清算 (Margin Liquidation)。 2. 做市商 (MMs) 针对短期期权（散户卖出看涨期权或买入短期看涨期权的对手方）进行机械对冲，加剧下行压力，引发抛售。 3. 从 Citadel 到 Virtu 的做市商通过从散户手中买入来吸收流动性。 4. 做市商通过大宗交易 (Block Trades) 和暗池 (Dark Pools) 向机构卸载头寸以进行对冲和再平衡。（收割机构的抛售） 5. 机构在压低股价的同时进行低可见度的积累。（例如：散户卖出 10 万股，机构买入 15 万股，而股价下跌。） 散户看到“红色交易日”并认为“没人买入”，而积累仍在悄悄进行。 散户情绪崩溃，但基本面仅有所改善（例如：基于估算，新的以色列数据中心建设将增加约 8000 万美元以上的 ARR）。 这是一个缓慢且战略性的过程，对冲基金和机构将 Nebius 视为潜在的下一个 1000 亿美元市值公司，从而积累大量流通股本。 基本面没有改变——只有股价和散户情绪发生了变化。
英文原文
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.
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反驳NBIS套牢论，看好其全栈优势及高增长前景。
@Mitchelldzll 我认为用“套牢者(bagholder)”来形容 $NBIS 并不准确，这是一家拥有代际意义的、全栈式(full-stack)的公司，其未来季度营收增长超过1000%，并且拥有对长期护城河至关重要的投资组合公司。我目前在高确信度(high conviction)股票上从未判断失误。这仅仅是个开始。
英文原文
@Mitchelldzll Don’t think bagholder is a correct term for $NBIS, a generational full-stack company growing forward q revenue 1000%+, which owns critical portfolio companies for long term defensibility. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stocks yet. This is just the beginning
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称赞 RJCcapital 关于 TE 的研报。
@RJCcapital 关于 $TE 的写得真好！
英文原文
@RJCcapital Great writeup on $TE!
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期权风险管理：1年期平衡杠杆与税优，2年期建议改用融资。
仅仅是为了更远期(OTM)的风险管理。 对于更长的到期时间，通常你希望最大化杠杆，同时最小化时间价值衰减(Theta decay)；此外，1年期节点也是长期资本利得税的甜蜜点。 例如，当你选择两年期时，权利金会变得有点高，此时你不如直接使用融资(Margin)。
英文原文
Just risk management for more OTM. For more out in time, usually you want to maximize leverage while minimizing theta decay + 1 year mark is sweet spot as well for long term capital gains tax. When you go two years out for example, premium gets a bit high and you might as well use margin.
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看好$TE跑赢大盘，计划本周发布深度分析文章。
@soulbiri1 $TE 将会跑赢大盘！ 说笑归说笑，我明天或本周晚些时候会尝试写一篇关于此的分析文章。 我确实对此做了相当多的研究，但能源板块不像新云基础设施(Neoclouds)或其他板块那样，我能如此清晰地阐述其逻辑。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $TE is going to outplay the market! But jokes aside I’ll attempt a writeup on this tomorrow or later in the week. I did do a decent amount of research into this but energy is not as something I can as cleanly articulate compared to Neoclouds or other sectors
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看好NBIS长期看涨期权，认为终将获利
@soulbiri1 我认为这些 $NBIS 的看涨期权(leaps)将会行权获利！只是时间问题，我喜欢虚值(OTM) $120 的行权价，选得好
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I think these $NBIS leaps are going to print! Just a matter of time, I like the OTM $120 strike, good choice
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Neoclouds凭借软件编排优势解决GPU瓶颈，构建高毛利护城河。
好问题！超大规模云厂商已签署确切的利用率+支出协议，例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易，微软将在5年内支出170-200亿美元。这并非完全是在承担高资本支出(capex)的风险，因为他们是在为产能付费以解决瓶颈。他们仍在支出数百亿美元，部分原因是无法自建，部分原因是前期高资本支出存在更大风险。我在核心论点中写道，Neoclouds（新云）+ 有意将GPU分配给这些Neoclouds是 $NVDA 维持主导地位、实现多元化并避免未来利润率压缩的方式。我们也看到超大规模云厂商在自建方面遇到困难（如 $ORCL 亏损1亿美元），但这恰恰表明Neoclouds在软件编排处理GPU利用率以及通过其建设方式维持高毛利率方面拥有巨大护城河。$NBIS、$WLAC 等毛利率已达70%左右，现在只是执行问题。这不仅是芯片稀缺，这些小型公司+转型HPC的比特币矿工（如 $IREN）实际上拥有竞争优势，即护城河。
英文原文
Great question! Hyperscalers signed confirmed utilization + spend, for example with $NBIS deal with $MSFT, Microsoft is spending 17-20B over 5 years. It's not exactly risking high-capex, since they're spending to pay for capacity since there's a bottleneck. They're still spending tens of billions of dollars, partly because they can't do it themselves and partly because there's a larger risk in high capex upfront. I wrote in my central thesis that Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road. We've also seen hyperscalers have trouble with buildout on their own, (eg. $ORCL losing $100m), but this just goes to show that there is a huge moat with Neoclouds in terms of software orchestration handling GPU utilization and maintaining high gross margins with how they do their buildout. $NBIS, $WLAC, and others already had 70% or so gross margins and it's just execution now. It's not just scarcity in chips, there's actually a competitive advantage that these little guys + Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat.
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NBIS 短期回调不改长期看好，机构持仓低且数据中心业务爆发。
$NBIS 在无重大消息情况下下跌 17% 并未改变我的信念。我的牛市目标价(PT) 仍为 $400。 我们以前见过这种走势： - $ASTS 每股收益(ER) 从 $58 跌至 $36，随后涨至 $83。 - $GOOGL 因 AI 搜索业务从 $170 跌至 $144，随后涨至 $257。 - $HOOD 因宏观因素从 $40 跌至 $28，随后涨至 $135。 当基本面和行业势头保持完好时，尽管短期下跌，坚定的信念终将获得回报。 来自 META、GOOGL、MSFT 的超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 正向 AI 数据中心投入数十亿美元，而 Nebius 正在为 Mag7 的现金牛业务提供支持，预计还将有更多超大规模云服务商的交易。未来季度营收预计同比激增 1000%。这种增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。 机构持股比例较低（流通股的 38.3%），随着公司成长，各种手段将被用来从散户手中获取更多股份。 基本面和数据中心增长并未改变，反而呈指数级改善。（例如：今天宣布的新 Nebius 以色列数据中心，以及不断增长的年度经常性收入(ARR)）。 现在是做多(best times go long)的最佳时机，也是市场中赚取世代财富的地方。
英文原文
The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400. We've seen this move before: - $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83. - $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257. - $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135 When fundamentals and industry momentum stay intact, conviction pays off despite any short-term drop. Hyperscalers from META, GOOGL, MSFT, are pouring billions into AI data centers, and Nebius is powering the cash cows of Mag7 with more hyperscaler deals likely to come. Forward quarterly revenue is set to explode 1000% Y/Y. This type of growth is almost unheard of in history. Institutional ownership is low (38.3% of the float) and every trick in the book will be played to acquire more shares off retail as the company grows. Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. (eg. new Nebius Israel data center announcement today, growing ARR). These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.
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超大规模云合同增加，META签约利好新兴云厂商，MSFT合同未定价。
更多超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同正在陆续到来。但你关于财报+降息（以及11/12月季节性因素）作为最大短期催化剂的观点完全正确。通常公司在财报后发布更多前瞻性指引时会获得估值重估(rerated)。当$META与$CRWV签约时，这对其他新兴云厂商(neoclouds)是极度看涨的信号。除此之外，我认为$MSFT的合同和其他降息预期尚未被市场定价。
英文原文
More hyperscaler contracts coming in. But you're spot on with earnings + rate cuts (+ Nov/Dec seasonality) as the biggest near-term catalysts. Usually companies get rerated after earnings when they release more insight into forward projections. When $META signed with $CRWV that's extremely bullish for the other neoclouds. Aside from that don't think $MSFT contract and other rate cuts are priced in yet.
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类比电竞战队，认为选手退役后相关股票可能表现良好。
@yparekh2 我的 $TSM 持仓表现一直不错，即便在 Doublelift 和其他选手退役后也是如此。因此，如果 Faker 退役，$TE 可能也会基于同样的逻辑表现良好。
英文原文
@yparekh2 My $TSM positions have been doing well even after Doublelift and others retired. So if Faker retires $TE might do well too with the same logic.