· 个股论点

对比NBIS全栈优势与CIFR低风险低上限,看好两者但首选NBIS。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

感谢 @accounting_ds 总结我的观点。明天我会发布更深入的全面分析。 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 是我在 Neoclouder(新型云服务商)板块中最看好的两只股票。不过 CIFR 的地位略低于 Nebius。 Nebius 位居榜首,因为它拥有完整的 AI-cloud(人工智能云)价值链,具备更高的收入潜力和更强的回报,尽管这迫使它们承担编排、软件以及 GPU lifecycle(GPU 生命周期)风险,而非仅局限于 colocation(托管服务)。 我看好 $CIFR 是因为它规避了上述所有风险敞口,并拥有 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它还免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 就 CIFR 的经济模型而言,我们得到的是基于为 hyperscalers(超大规模云厂商)提供空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金式结构。经风险调整后,它是该组别中最安全的标的之一。但权衡之下,其上行空间有限。 10年、15年的长期租约减缓了收入增长步伐,并削弱了相对于 NBIS 等全栈 Neocloud 运营商的回报,后者能在一年内将季度收入从 1.45 亿美元提升至 21 亿美元。

英文原文

Appreciate, @accounting_ds for summarizing my opinion. I'll post a deeper dive into everything tomorrow. $NBIS, $CIFR are my favorite two in the Neoclouder sector. CIFR sits right below Nebius though. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. I like $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from $AMZN and $GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year.

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