· 个股论点
涉及标的： $CIFR$GOOGL$IREN$MSFT$NBIS
$CIFR 实际上是我下一个最看好的新云(Neocloud)板块标的。 我之前做过一个梯队排名，$NBIS 是 S+ 级，$CIFR 是 S 级。 但这里有个细微差别，很多人可能不知道： Nebius 捕获了 AI 云业务的整个价值链。$IREN 在其财报电话会议中明确表示，他们之所以选择与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”，同时承担了编排、软件、折旧以及 GPU 采购，而非仅做数据中心(Colo)。 正如你所说，$CIFR 因为 AWS、$GOOGL 以及 Secure 而降低了风险，这也是我喜欢这个标的的原因。通过做数据中心(Colo)，他们避免了购买和管理 GPU 集群，这也是我下调 $IREN 评级的原因，因为 $IREN 面临一个新的风险因素，而 $NBIS 没有，且此前也不存在。 超大规模客户在空间、电力和冷却方面的高利润率、类年金收入。它是该板块中风险调整后风险最低的股票之一。 然而，其上行空间远不如其他标的。特别是当你看到租赁（例如 10-15 年）时，收入爬坡要慢得多，上行空间也远小于像 $NBIS 这样的全栈纯新云标的。
$CIFR is actually next favorite Neocloud sector pick. I made a tierlist earlier and $NBIS was S+ and $CIFR was S. But here's the difference and nuance people might not know: Nebius captures the entire value chain of the AI cloud business. $IREN said it themselves in their ER call that they did full-stack with $MSFT because of to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns", while taking on orchestration, software, and deprecation with GPUs purchases vs. colo. $CIFR is de-risked as you mentioned because of AWS, $GOOGL and finally secure, which is why I love the pick. Doing colo, they avoid purchasing/managing GPU fleets, which is why I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before. There's high-margin, annuity-like revenue for space, power, and cooling for hyperscales. It's one of the lowest-risk adjusted stocks in the sector. However, upside is not anywhere as high. Especially when you look at leases (eg. 10Y-15Y) revenue ramp is a lot slower, and upside is a lot less compared to full-stack pure Neoclouds like $NBIS.