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博主回应粉丝关于 $TE 的长期讨论，确认已建仓。
@mysticall3g3nd 哈哈，你在评论区关于 $TE 的帖子发了挺久了，终于建仓了。
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd Haha you’ve been posting about $TE for quite some time in the comments, finally initiated positions
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解释投资TE和NBIS的逻辑，看好能源及NBIS年底涨幅。
谢谢！哈哈，这篇写得不太好，只是我承认自己缺乏领域知识，无法给出好的观点。 但我选择投资 $TE，因为我知道能源行业将是数据中心建设（Data Center Buildout）的受益者，而且我信任他人的尽职调查（DD）。 至于 $NBIS，对我来说就像是大甩卖，因为我确实认为它年底会涨到 200 美元以上。 我不认为它会再次跌破 100 美元，在我买入更多 LEAPS 之前，为了捕捉真正的底部而节省那百分之几的利润并搞砸复苏行情，对我来说并不值得。
英文原文
Thanks! Not a great writeup lol, it’s just me admitting I don’t have domain knowledge and can’t give a good opinion. But I chose to invest in $TE bc I know the energy sector will be a beneficiary of the data center buildout + I trust DD of others. As for $NBIS, it’s like a fire sale to me since I do think it ends up $200+ end of year. Don’t think it goes below $100 again and saving a few percent catching the true bottom + messing up recovery wasn’t worth it for me before I bought more leaps.
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因看好数据中心建设受益逻辑，建立T1 Energy小仓位。
在 T1 Energy $TE 建立了一个小仓位（5万股，4月期权），部分原因是我喜欢《英雄联盟》和 Faker。 我持有 $FLNC、SEI 和 $EOSE（已减仓）等能源股，表现非常好。 但像其他领域一样，能源行业有望从数据中心建设潮中受益，7亿美元市值的风险回报比不错。 我可以自信地说，我对太阳能/电池/能源领域了解不够深入，无法给出扎实的基本面论点，这是其他 X 用户推荐的。所以我不打算假装在这个领域有专业知识。 但一般来说，当一家公司远期营收同比增长 300%，且今年营收从去年的几乎为零起步达到 8-9 亿美元时，这是一个积极信号。即使毛利率为 25%，仍有 5-6 亿美元的债务。但增长惊人，且是数据中心建设潮的受益者。 有时只需要对某个板块迈出信任的一步，并信任 X 上同行们的尽职调查（DD）。
英文原文
Initiated a small position ($50k shares, $50k April calls) in T1 Energy $TE $4.45, partly because I like League of Legends and Faker. I have energy positions such as $FLNC, SEI and $EOSE (trimmed) that performed very well. But like the rest, energy is pointed to benefit from the data center buildout and a $700m MC is a good risk-reward. I can confidently say I don’t know enough about solar/battery/energy to give a good fundamental thesis but got recommended this from other X users. So I’m not going to try to pretend I have domain expertise in this. But generally, when a company Grows forward revenue 300% y/y and starts the year off with 800-900m revenue from almost 0 the previous year, this a positive sign. Even with 25% gross margins, there’s quite a lot of debt 500-600m. But the growth is staggering and a beneficiary of the data center buildout. Sometimes just need to take the leap of faith with a sector and trust DD of peers on X.
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建议做多NBIS/WLAC及TSM/AMZN看涨期权，认为当前是最佳做多时机。
@capybara_830 说实话，$NBIS、$WLAC，然后将 $NVO 拆分并买入 6 个月后的 $TSM 和 $AMZN 看涨期权，听起来太完美了。目前已有两次降息预期，且市场刚经历回调，正进入季节性表现最佳的月份。如果现在有任何时机做多，那就是现在。
英文原文
@capybara_830 Honestly $NBIS, $WLAC, then splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful. There’s 2x rate cuts and a recent correction going into the best seasonal months. Now’s the best time to go long if any.
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对比NBIS基本面与量子计算股泡沫，认为后者估值虚高。
区别在于，$NBIS 在2026年的远期营收(Forward Revenue)为40-60亿美元，毛利率(Gross Margins)约为70%。 其市值为280亿美元，且存在支撑该估值的前瞻性增长基本面。 而量子计算(Quantum)公司大多尚未实现营收，其大量收入来自利息而非营收。像 $RGTI 和 $QBTS 这样没有实质性远期营收的公司，市值却高达数百亿美元，这显然是泡沫。
英文原文
The difference is that $NBIS is doing 4-6B forward revenue in 2026 off ~70% gross margins. The market cap is 28B and forward growth fundamentals are there to support valuation. Quantum are pre-revenue with a lot of their income coming from interest instead of revenue. Companies like $RGTI and $QBTS that have no meaningful forward revenue, while being valued at tens of billions is a bubble.
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认为地缘政治风险可控，看好台积电及AI基建股。
并非如此。无论特朗普政府还是其他政府，中国都不会入侵台湾，因为 $TSM 是美国最大的国家安全风险之一。 美国没有全民医保是有原因的，任何可能入侵的国家都会发现原因并遭到彻底摧毁。 因此，我对 $TSM 及相关半导体或 AI 基础设施建设 $NBIS 感到放心。
英文原文
Not really. China won’t invade Taiwan under Trump administration or others since $TSM is one of the largest national security risks to United States. There’s a reason US doesn’t have universal healthcare and any country that might invade would find out why + get flattened to the ground. Hence why I’m comfortable with $TSM and related semis or AI buildout $NBIS
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计划买入$TE，但坦言非能源专业领域。
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy 是的，我可能会买入一些 $TE，它已经在我关注列表中一段时间了。不过能源领域并非我的专业领域，所以我的评论可能没那么有用。
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy Yeah I’ll probably be buying a bit of $TE, it’s been on my radar for awhile. Energy isn’t really in my domain expertise though, so my commentary wouldn’t be as useful
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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提及比特币、Robinhood及台积电代码
@_visionarius $BTC, $HOOD, $TSM
英文原文
@_visionarius $BTC, $HOOD, $TSM
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感谢粉丝提及，并推荐关注另一位提供有价值见解的博主。
@DeepValueBagger 谢谢，这对我意义重大！考虑到时间线上刚好有人推销 $399 的课程，这还挺讽刺的 😂 但很感谢你的提及，@DeepValueBagger 也是一个非常值得关注的账号，是我关注的少数能提供真正有价值见解的账号之一。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Thanks, means a lot to me! Pretty funny considering someone else selling $399 courses popped up in the timeline 😂 But appreciate the shoutout, @DeepValueBagger is an amazing follow as well, and one of the rare accounts with genuinely valuable insights I follow.
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批评某博主为卖课而操纵算法获取流量，表示已屏蔽。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，他是我在 X 上见过的最大的“江湖骗子(snake oil salesmen)”之一。 不幸的是，由于 X 算法的运作机制，提及(@) 会让他在你的信息流中更频繁地出现，所以我不得不选择屏蔽(muting)。 当唯一的目标是向新手出售课程时，他们并不在乎如何获取流量。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah he’s one of the biggest snake oil salesmen I’ve seen on X Unfortunately tagging makes him show up on your feed more due to how X algorithm works so I had to resort to muting. When the sole goal is to sell courses to newcomers they don’t care about how they get engagement
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感谢早期粉丝，调侃X平台应增加粉丝数显示功能。
@Toy0tomi_H 哈哈，感谢成为前800名关注者中的一员。X平台应该在个人资料里加个粉丝数#，纯粹为了好玩 @elonmusk
英文原文
@Toy0tomi_H Haha thanks for being part of the first 800. X should make a follower # added to a profile @elonmusk, just for fun
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博主感谢粉丝从初期至今的长期支持。
@soulbiri1 你从一开始就长期支持我，感谢你的支持！❤️
英文原文
@soulbiri1 You’ve been long since the very beginning, thanks for the support! ❤️
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博主感谢粉丝推荐机器人概念股，表示周末将进行研究。
@ryanthawks 非常感谢！感谢你在另一条评论中提到的机器人概念股，我本周末会去研究一下。
英文原文
@ryanthawks Appreciate it! Thanks for the robotics stock shout in the other comment, I’ll look into it this weekend
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博主解释年底税务操作，并反思Rocket Lab减仓失误。
@soulbiri1 是的，我会写一篇分析文章！目前出于税务目的有点特殊，如果不是年底，我不会真的卖出那些我认为还会涨的股票。 另外，不要听信我关于卖出高确信度盈利头寸的建议，我在 $RKLB 30美元时减仓了约60万美元。可能只是持有 https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah I'll do a writeup! It's a bit special right now for tax purposes, I wouldn't really sell stocks I still think would go back up if it weren't EOY. Also don't trust me on selling wining positions with high conviction, I trimmed like $600k of $RKLB at $30. Probably just hold https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r
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反思机构年底税务收割效应及RDDT买入逻辑
是的，我总是低估对冲基金/机构（Institutions）的税务收割（Tax Harvesting）效应。每当像 $ETOR 这样的股票下跌 2% 时，我会想“不可能再低了”，结果它确实更低了。这仅适用于年底（10月/11月/12月初）年内下跌的股票。是的，我在周五 $190 时买入 $RDDT，随后它反弹至 $195，鉴于大家都用它，它肯定能站稳。
英文原文
Yeah I always underestimate tax harvesting effects from hedge funds/institutions. Whenever a stock like $ETOR goes 2% lower, I think "it can't get any lower than this" then it does. This only applies end of year for Oct/Nov/early December for stocks down on the year. Yeah I bought $RDDT at $190 on Friday before it recovered to $195, it's definitely here to stay since everyone uses it lol.
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作者偏好低流通盘股票以博取高收益，但建议同时持有期权。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 今年我见过太多低流通盘(low float) IPO 涨幅超过 700% 的案例，从 $BULL 到 $NMAX 哈哈……或者去年 $DJT 到 $OKLO，但那些是 300% 的涨幅。 所以我个人更偏爱股票，仅仅是为了那 25% 的低流通盘拉升机会。但聪明人应该两者都持有。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot I’ve just seen so many lower float 700%+ IPOs this year from $BULL to $NMAX lol… or $DJT to $OKLO last year but those were 300% gains. So I prefer shares myself just for that 25% chance on a low float rally. But a smart person would have both.
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禁售期解禁及套利后定价合理，仅首月存在相对股价的定价错误。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 不过是的，在禁售期(lockups)解禁和套利(arbitrage)之后，它们的定价是正确的（忘了补充这一点）。仅在第一个月，相对于股价(share price)它们存在定价错误(mispriced)。
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@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot But yeah after lockups + arbitrage they’re priced correctly (forgot to add this) Just in month 1 they’re mispriced relative to share price
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低流通盘IPO普通股爆发力强于认股权证，需权衡杠杆与稀释风险。
我刚才提到，由于流通盘（float）低，SPAC IPO 的普通股经常会出现 600%-1000% 的惊人回报，而认股权证（warrants）则无法享受这种收益。我们还看到过其他低流通盘 IPO 的类似走势，比如 Newsmax 因低流通盘上涨 500%。认股权证无法像普通股那样放大收益，因为它们在行权时会考虑稀释效应，且其他锁定期（lockups）结束后也会产生稀释。因此我有时会进行认股权证套利，且它们经常定价偏低。例如 Bull 的认股权证曾以每股 $16 交易，而股价为 $80；当时 Bull 股价 $29、认股权证 $13.5 时是可以对冲的。我需要进一步研究流通盘规模，但我的观点是：我宁愿错过认股权证的杠杆，也不愿错过低流通盘 IPO 的 500% 暴涨。我的意思是，500% 的收益可能优于长期持有的 200%，但如果流通盘充足，我也会考虑认股权证（这点我需要进一步研究）。
英文原文
I was just saying some hilarious 600%-1000% returns happen a lot on SPAC ipo’s with shares because of low float and you miss out on it with warrants vs. shares. We also saw some other low float moves with IPOs like Newsmax up 500% on low float. And warrants don’t scale with shares because they consider in dilution after warrants and other lockups can be exercised. Hence why I do warrant arbitrage sometimes and why they’re underpriced a lot of time. Like warrants on bull were trading at $16 per bull share while share price was $80 on bull. Hedging was available at the time when bull was $13.5 a warrant and shares were $29 I’ll need to do more research on float size but my point was in general I’d rather miss out on warrant leverage than a 500% pop on low float IPOs. And a 500% gain is probably better than 200% after a long time was my point, but if there’s a decent amount of float I’d do warrants too (I’ll need to look into this more)
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SPAC IPO中因禁售期限制，首月股票流动性低涨幅大，优于认股权证。
作为一个经常参与像 $BULL 这样的 SPAC IPO（特殊目的收购公司首次公开募股）的人，你会错过带有认股权证（Warrants）的 SPAC 股票带来的疯狂上涨（例如 600%+），因为你必须等待一个月后才能转换认股权证。 许多内部人士/禁售协议（Lockup Agreements）在认股权证可转换之前也无法出售或转换。（因此，前一到两周仅持有股票的回报率最高。 而且认股权证通常被低估，因为它们计入了稀释因素。例如 $BULL IPO 价格约为 $10，股价涨至 $80，而认股权证仍将其定价为 $16（$10 行权价 - $6/认股权证）。 因此，我通常在 SPAC IPO 中更偏好股票而非认股权证，因为第一个月内流通盘（Float）很小。
英文原文
As someone who frequently does SPAC IPOs like $BULL, you miss out on the crazy upside (eg. 600%+) on spac shares with warrants because you can’t convert warrants until one month later. A lot of insiders/lockup agreements can’t sell or convert as well until warrants can be converted too. (So first week or two has highest return with shares only. And warrants are typically underpriced since they factor in dilution. For example $BULL ipo’d around $10, rose to $80, while warrants were still pricing it at $16 $10 strike - $6/warrant. So I typically prefer shares over warrants on spac ipos, since it’s low float for a month.
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回复指出可能需要更新数据。
@Planckbot @DeepValueBagger 是的，可能确实需要更新数据。
英文原文
@Planckbot @DeepValueBagger Yep probably needs updated data
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解释高确信度持仓与多股并发波段交易策略
批评得中肯。我认为一个重要的细微差别是，我的投资组合大部分是高确信度的（比特币、金融科技、新云厂商、$RKLB）。我只拿出较小比例用于主动波段交易+中期持有以等待重估（$SNAP、$ETOR），而这些正是我在市场持续下跌而非反弹时的亏损来源。这是我的个人交易风格，同时监控40多只股票，因为我不长期持有主动交易头寸，例如，如果我在$HIMS下跌14%时以50美元买入，随后上涨8%，我就会止盈。我发现如果同时操作大量股票，这种策略通常效果最好，否则等待单只股票（如Reddit）波段回归的时间会太长。我个人对此方法取得了成功，所以我会继续这样做。
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That’s fair criticism. I think an important nuance is majority of my portfolio is in high conviction (bitcoin, fintech, neoclouds, rklb). I take a smaller percentage just for active swing trading + medium term holds for re-rating (snap, etor) and these were my losses when it kept dipping instead of any recovering. It’s my personal trading style monitoring 40+ stocks at once since I don’t long term hold active trades, eg. If $HIMS went up 8% when I bought it at $50 on the 14% drop, I’d take profit. And it usually works the best if I do a ton of stocks concurrently, otherwise the waiting period would be too long just waiting for one stock swing back like Reddit. I’ve found success with it personally so I just keep doing it.
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博主看好WLAC和NBIS，认为WLAC IPO潜力巨大。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，我非常看好 $WLAC 和 $NBIS，那是我的前两名。 $WLAC 在首次公开募股(IPO) 时拥有巨大的上涨空间，只是目前还没有人知道 boost 这个指标，不过它确实是个很棒的指标！我也应该用用看哈哈。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah I really liked $WLAC and $NBIS, those were my top 2. WLAC has huge upside when they IPO, just nobody knows about boost yet, great metric though! I should use that too lol
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批评迈克是骗子，但承认其投资观点可能正确。
我认为那些急于为他辩护的人是在回避那些让迈克成为江湖骗子的明显事实： - 隐藏那些在实质内容上真实的帖子（例如 $BKKT 的稀释历史） - 搞虚假 giveaways 然后删除它们 - 虚假的互动诱饵（例如 OP 指出的那样）。 两件事可以同时成立：某人可能是一个可疑的混蛋，同时在他的论点帖子中持有正确的方向性观点。
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I think the people who jump to his defense are sidestepping the obvious things that make Mike a snake oil salesman - hiding posts that are materially true (eg. $BKKT dilution history) - fake giveaways and then deleting them - fake engagement bait (eg. What OP pointed out). Two things can be true, someone can be a sketchy piece of crap and can have correct directional opinions with thesis posts
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警告Mike账号行为可疑，提醒用户警惕虚假信息。
@kashyap286 @ThHappyHawaiian Mike 对某些股票有一些不错的见解，但在我看来，他显得虚伪且可疑。试图隐藏真实的帖子，加上以往虚假抽奖的历史，这简直是巨大的红色警报。
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@kashyap286 @ThHappyHawaiian Mike has some good takes on certain stocks but to me, he comes off as a disingenuous and sketchy. Trying to hide posts that are true and having a history of fake giveaways screams red flag. https://t.co/ZN2DLMcq4g
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博主感谢并赞赏对方关于BZAI至UAMY的投资观点。
@moninvestor 谢谢！我也很喜欢阅读你关于 $BZAI 到 $UAMY 的投资论点帖子。
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@moninvestor Thanks! I enjoy reading your thesis posts too on $BZAI to $UAMY
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FLY借NOC技术降低风险，有望在2026-27年竞争中型火箭市场。
我之前写过，简而言之是 $FLY 正在与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭，而由 $NOC 共同开发将降低任何执行风险。在俄乌战争导致其供应链崩溃之前，NOC 就已经拥有成熟的 expendable medium-lifts（一次性中型运载火箭）。NOC + Fly = 即插即用的中型运载火箭基本就绪，他们只需将其改为可重复使用即可。我的论点(Thesis)是，Fly 可以通过依托诺斯罗普的可重复使用中型运载火箭发射器，跳过自行构建成功小型运载火箭的过程，从而与猎鹰9号(Falcon 9)竞争。如果他们在 2026-2027 年成功实现，市值从 30-40 亿增长 5-10 倍是有可能的。此外，我认为市场并未计入诺斯罗普执行此计划的可能性，因为人们只关注 FLY 的失败，但 NOC 是最大的政府航空航天承包商之一。
英文原文
I wrote about it earlier but a TLDR was $FLY was working with Northrop on reuable medium lift and having $NOC co-developing it would reduce any execution risk. NOC had working expendable medium-lifts already before Russia-Ukraine war and their supply chain fell apart. NOC + Fly = Working medium lift plug and play med kinda ready to go, they just needed to make it re-usable. Thesis was Fly can leapfrog building successful small-lift themselves by piggy backing off of Northrop on reusable medium-lift launchers to complete with falcon9 and upside on a 3-4B marketcap could be 5-10x if they got it to work in 2026-2027. I also didn't think markets were pricing in Northrop executing on this cause they just keep pointing to FLY's failures but, NOC is one of the largest government aerospace contractors.
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博主反思买入高估核能股OKLO的错误决策。
@iamsattam 你说得对，感谢提醒我关于 $NKLR 的事。吸取教训：我一直说像 $OKLO 这样的核能股估值高得离谱，真不知道我当时为什么决定把它当作一个可能没有收入的“梗”股来买入。https://t.co/vOKJG56mA5
英文原文
@iamsattam You're right thanks for the reminder on $NKLR. Lesson learned: I've been saying nuclear like $OKLO is hilariously overvalued, no clue why I decided to buy it just as a potential no-revenue meme. https://t.co/vOKJG56mA5
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博主复盘今年亏损持仓，总结税务收割、迷因股及期权交易教训。
周末反思 ☁️ 我想列出今年所有亏损的持仓+经验教训。 ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, 定投 $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (新) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (新) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (新) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (新) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (新) 我发了很多股票，很高兴只有约7只短期看错（抱歉如果漏了一两只），还有约5只没踩准绝对底部。 我仍然认为它们会在2026年大涨，输家不多！ 个人反思 1. $ETOR: 基本面很好的股票。即使下跌~20%，我相信它会在2026年恢复。1/3现金，以盈透证券(IBKR)的速度增长。它受税务收割(tax-harvesting)效应影响（10月/11月），因为对冲基金卖出并在12月回购。 经验教训：无，我会再做一次。持有至2026年。为税务收割小幅减仓。 2. $VIRT: 如果我买看涨期权，可能不应该公开发布，因为这会影响对冲资金流。临近两次降息（对股市利好）时减仓进行税务收割。对冲有效但损失不少。 经验教训：对冲操作保密。仍然认为方向正确，只是想税务收割。 3. $SNAP: 在$8.2左右发布，当时他们将记忆功能转化为收入。这是2026年的布局，不担心短期税务收割。 经验教训：无。持有至2026年。 4. $SG: 说实话，我只是喜欢沙拉🥗。今年早些时候是$35+。我认为它最终会恢复，只是等待游戏，因为现在约1倍市销率(p/s)？ 经验教训：无。中期持有。 5. $GRRR: 调查其$14亿合同后迁移至$WLAC，看起来可疑。被$3.8亿市值对比$14亿收入潜力所诱。 经验教训：相信对可疑公司的直觉。如果属实可能5倍，但我不信任。可能不该进入。（已减仓） 6. $FLY: 下跌~12%，仍然是2026年中期升力布局。最近发布，时机可能更好。 经验教训：无，也许税务收割时机更好。 7. $LTC: 下跌~20%。加密货币被清算+政府停摆延迟ETF批准所重创。 经验教训：不要杠杆炒币。政府停摆延迟ETF批准哈哈。 8. $OPAD: 之前卖出，但当前价格-36%。我冲进去的迷因股(meme stock)。 经验教训：不要碰迷因股。 9. $CRM: 因短期期权+错过财报日损失~30%。波段交易搞砸了。 经验教训：始终检查财报日，只是一次性错误，以前没犯过。 10. $AMZN: 它是亚马逊。有时下跌1%。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 11. $RDDT: 以为$200是底部，进一步下跌。平均成本降至$190。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 12. $WULF: 因为所有新云(neoclouds)都在涨而买入。$14.5买入，跌至$14。 经验教训：不要盲目追高(ape)。时机可能更好。 _ 税务收割总结 除了新持仓($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF)和提到的中期布局如$FLY（持有至2026年）外，大部分输家为年底税务收割而减仓。 TLDR: - 年底不要重仓税务收割股（如$LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP）。如果择时，等12月。 - 停止交易迷因股如$OPAD。 - 当SEA相关公司看起来可疑时相信直觉($GRRR)。 - 期权资金流影响流动性较差的股票（如$VIRT）。3月看涨期权可能仍会大涨，其他人买入可能影响行情，只是想税务收割。 其他交易如$AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF非常新，也许时机更好，但没踩准绝对底部。 _ 总体而言，目前还好！我数不清有多少100%+的收益...输家数量仍然很少，无论是数量还是仓位规模。
英文原文
Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the absolute bottom correctly. I still think they'll print in 2026, not too many losers though! Individual Reflections 1. $ETOR: Great stock fundamentally. Even down ~20%, I believe this will recover in 2026. 1/3 cash, growing at IBKR rates. It suffers from tax-harvesting effects (October/November) as hedge funds sell and rebuy in December. Lesson learned: None, Id do the same again. Holding for 2026. Trimmed slightly for tax harvest. 2. $VIRT: If I buy calls, probably shouldn't post publicly since it affects hedging flow. Trimmed for tax harvesting since we're nearing two more rate cuts (bullish for markets). Hedging worked but lost quite a bit. Lesson learned: Keep hedges to myself. Still think I'm directionally right, just wanted to tax harvest. 3. $SNAP: Posted around $8.2 when they converted memories to revenue. This is a 2026 play, not worried about short-term tax harvesting. Lesson learned: None. Holding for 2026. 4. $SG: Honestly, I just like the salad 🥗. It was $35+ earlier this year. I think it'll recover eventually, just a waiting game cause it's like 1 p/s now? Lesson learned: None. Medium-term hold. 5. $GRRR: Migrated into $WLAC after investigating their $1.4B contract more, seemed sus. Got baited by the $380M market cap vs. $1.4B revenue potential. Lesson learned: Trust my gut on suspicious companies. Could 5x if legit, but I don't trust it. Probably shouldn’t have entered. (Trimmed) 6. $FLY: Down ~12%, still a 2026 medium-lift play. Posted recently, could’ve timed better. Lesson learned: None, maybe better tax-harvest timing. 7. $LTC: Down ~20%. Crypto got nuked by liquidations + government shutdown delays ETF approvals. Lesson learned: Don’t margin crypto. Government shutdowns delay ETF approvals lol. 8. $OPAD: Sold earlier, but current prices are -36%. Meme stock I aped into. Lesson learned: Don’t touch meme stocks. 9. $CRM: ~30% loss due to short-dated options + missing earnings date. Swing trade gone wrong. Lesson learned: Always check earnings dates, was just a on-off mistake, dont think I've ever made this mistake before. 10. $AMZN: It’s Amazon. Moves down 1% sometimes. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 11. $RDDT: Thought $200 was bottom, dipped further. Averaged down to $190. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 12. $WULF: Bought because all neoclouds were going up. Bought at $14.5, dipped to $14. Lesson learned: Don't ape into stocks. Could've timed better. _ Tax Harvesting Summary Trimmed most losers for EOY tax harvesting, except newer positions ($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF) and medium-term plays like $FLY (holding through 2026) that I mentioned. TLDR: - Don't go hard into tax-harvested stocks end of year (e.g. $LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP). Wait for December if timing. - Stop trading meme-stocks like $OPAD. - Trust my gut when SEA-related companies seem suspicious ($GRRR). - Option flows affect less-liquid stocks (e.g. $VIRT). March calls could still print so other people buying might affect things, just wanted to tax harvest tho. Other trades like $AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF are very recent, maybe could've timed them better, but get the exact bottom. _ Overall, so far so good! I've lost count of how many 100%+ returns I've had... and the number of losers is still small, both for count and position size.
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呼吁监管机构调查媒体虚假报道操纵市场及潜在内幕交易行为。
@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - 调查此类对产生重大市场影响的媒体报道是否违反了10b-5规则。请探查其与外部证券交易的模式/协调情况。最近一次发生在10月7日，“甲骨文内部数据显示出租英伟达芯片的财务挑战”——缺乏背景的投机性报道造成了数百亿美元的市场财务损失。$ORCL 估值下跌80-90亿美元（$291 -> $284），$CRWV 下跌20亿美元，以及该板块其他许多抛售。在此事件中，文章故意遗漏了极其重要的数百亿美元云合同，以将讨论框架设定为针对 @sama 和 @satyanadella 的抹黑文章。操纵市场的糟糕新闻令人发指，但由于这种影响市场的行为持续存在，请调查 The Information 的无根据报道和关键信息遗漏是否与外部证券交易有关。
英文原文
@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - Investigate whether this media reporting, which materially affects the markets, violates Rule 10b-5. Probe patterns/coordination with external security transactions. Most recent occurrence was October 7th, "Internal Oracle Data Show Financial Challenge of Renting Out Nvidia Chips” - speculative reporting lacking context caused tens of billions of dollars in market financial damages. An $8 – 9 billion drop in $ORCL valuation ($291 -> $284), $2B decline in $CRWV, and many other sell-offs in the sector from the article. In this event, the article intentionally leaves out extremely important tens of billions of dollars of cloud contracts to frame discussions as a hit-piece on @sama and @satyanadella. Bad journalism that moves markets is egregious but as this market-moving behavior is ongoing, please probe whether unsubstantiated reporting and critical information omission done by The Information is connected to external securities transactions.