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澄清NBIS产能售罄是需求旺盛而非瓶颈，收入受限于上线速度。
我不确定这种错误的框架来自哪里？ $NBIS 已售罄 220MW 的现有及近期互联电力，因为任何新增产能都在被全部分配。 这并非触及最大结构性产能天花板，而是对极端市场需求的验证。 预计 2026 年互联电力将达到 1 GW，他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同产能来支撑 $7-9B 的年度经常性收入(ARR) 目标。 这并不意味着他们不能像从 Q2 到 Q3 财报期间从 1 GW 扩展到 2.5 GW 那样扩大产能。他们只是售罄了任何上线的产能，而收入受限于他们能上线多少产能。
英文原文
I'm not sure where this incorrect framing comes from? $NBIS sold out of 220MW of existing and near-term connected power because any new capacity is being fully allocated. That's not hitting a maximum structural capacity ceiling, that's validation of extreme market demand. 1 GW of connected power is projected 2026 and they have 2.5 GW of contracted capacity to support the $7-9B ARR figure. That doesn't mean they can't expand their capacity like they've done from 1 GW to 2.5 GW from Q2 to Q3 earnings. They just sell out of any capacity they bring online, and revenue is limited by how much capacity they can bring online.
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Nebius是纯新云AI基建标的，无债务与执行风险，具极高非对称上行潜力。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 现价 $86.69，是剩余最纯粹的“新云”(Neocloud) 和 AI 基础设施非对称性机会。 这是收入最高的、未受 $CIFR | $WULF 及数据中心(Colo) 提供商影响的 Neocloud 标的，且没有以下问题： - 不像 $IREN、$ORCL 那样面临全栈执行带来的巨大不确定性。 - 不像 $CRWV、$APLD 等那样背负高额利息债务。 - 不像 $CLSK、$BITF、$WYFI、$SLNH 等那样在超大规模超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler) 合同上存在收入不确定性。 在 AI 板块因恐惧情绪蔓延而普遍下跌后： Nebius 依然推进：明年年化经常性收入(ARR) 中值为 $80 亿，现金超 $47 亿，企业客户多元化（包括 $META、$MSFT、$ACN、$SHOP、政府机构），高增长投资组合公司，以及经过验证的高利润率全栈业务。 鉴于需求极度旺盛、执行不确定性（利润率）以及与当前困扰市场的 OpenAI 合同依赖和信贷收紧问题相隔离： 在非对称上行潜力方面，没有任何标的能接近 Nebius。 你只需等待公司的执行落地。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left. This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no: - Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution. - High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face. - Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack. After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear: Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business. With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening: Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside. You are simply just waiting for company execution.
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NBIS虽脱离基本面但获MSCI大额流入，强烈建议买入。
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS 目前与基本面严重脱节，且我们在短短一周内获得了 MSCI 指数基金数千万至低十亿级别的资金流入。这不仅是买入，更是极其强烈的买入信号！话虽如此，目前大多数资产都在全线暴跌。
英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS is incredibly detached from fundamentals right now and we have MSCI few hundred million-low billion inflow in a week. Not just a buy but incredibly strong buy! That being said most assets are dropping like flies across the board right now.
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转发推文，无实质内容。
@goodserdboy https://t.co/W7quCH4kqt
英文原文
@goodserdboy https://t.co/W7quCH4kqt
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分析NBIS高增长与融资优势，认为综合估值被低估。
我认为你的评论正好指出了 $NBIS 增长有多疯狂：从本季度1.46亿美元营收跃升至明年单季度21亿美元以上。 因此，我们应基于 $MSFT 合同（约190亿美元，5年）、$META（30亿美元，5年）、常规客户（Cursor、Shopify等）及政府合同来审视其未来增长（明年营收），而非当前数据。 他们像 AWS 一样提供全栈 AI 云；Nebius 获取 GPU 和基础设施初始资金的方式是股份销售（可转换票据，在138美元估值下稀释40亿美元）及随时出售2500万股。这远比 $CRWV 那样承担数十亿9%-10%利息更优，因为后者会随时间直接损害利润率。 这立即为其资产负债表增加数十亿（目前现金47亿美元），用于购买 GPU 等。 然而，规模化所需的大部分现金来自合同营收，$NBIS 毛利率达50-70%，预计 EBIT 为20-30%，是利润率最高的新型云厂商之一。 话说回来，若计入现有稀释（10%+可转换票据），再看47亿美元现金、来自 Clickhouse 等投资组合资产的70多亿美元净资产值(NAV)，以及明年80亿美元预计年化经常性收入(ARR)及其利润率，它看起来完全被低估。 但若仅看本季度营收，它看起来则被高估。
英文原文
I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter. So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue. They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time. This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc. However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds. That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued. But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.
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博主嘲讽某用户用自设账号点赞及用HTML编辑评论的行为。
@fin_anthro @ArchegosIntern 哈哈，这家伙用自设账号给自己帖子点赞，真是 pathetic（可悲/可怜）。 但用 HTML 文本编辑评论，更是 sad（悲哀）到了另一个层级。 https://t.co/LJLweuJDD0
英文原文
@fin_anthro @ArchegosIntern lol it's pathetic this guy is using self-accounts to like his own posts. But HTML text-editing comments is just another level of sad. https://t.co/LJLweuJDD0
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博主调侃互动数据，建议双方提升内容质量。
@fin_anthro @ArchegosIntern 别担心，我有1.1万+粉丝，在获得几百次观看后，每隔一段时间就能得到4个赞。 这家伙在前30秒内的5次观看中就获得了4个赞（其中1个是我的）。 我觉得我们俩都需要发布更好的内容 @fin_anthro。 https://t.co/P05FphikVZ
英文原文
@fin_anthro @ArchegosIntern Don't worry, I have 11k+ followers and get 4 likes every few hundred views after some time. This guy gets 4 likes in 5 views (when 1 is mine), within the first few 30s. I think we both just need to post better content @fin_anthro. https://t.co/P05FphikVZ
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建议停止使用多账号自赞以操纵互动，此举伤害社区。
建议是，最好停止使用备用账号+你自己的账号在评论发布的前几秒内给自己点赞。 让你的论点（Thesis）独立存在，而不是通过非有机的方式试图影响互动数据。 在你发表的每条评论中，前5-10次浏览就获得3-4个赞，这是一种可悲的操纵X平台讨论的尝试。 我通常避免在这类讨论中谈论品格（Character），但这确实伤害了社区。
英文原文
The word of advice was that it's probably good to stop using alt-accounts + your own account to self-like your own comments in the first few seconds. Just let your thesis stand on your own instead of inorganically trying to influence engagement. Having 3-4 likes in the first 5-10 views on every comment you make is a sad attempt to manipulate discussion on X. I normally avoid talking about character in these types of discussions, but it's pretty hurtful to the community.
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反驳股价下跌归因谬误，并批评对方自赞行为。
@ArchegosIntern 该股下跌是受宏观因素影响，并非因为“机构无所不知”并在建模$2B时就将$80亿+ ARR（年度经常性收入）计入定价，且你可以指出卖方报告作为证据。 仅提一句建议，在发布后第一分钟内给自己点赞并不会改变论点的价值。 https://t.co/YMRpByXqz7
英文原文
@ArchegosIntern The stock sold off due to macro, not because "institutions know everything" and priced in $8B+ ARR when they were doing modeling $2B and you can point to sell-side reports. Just a word of advice, self-liking in the first minute doesn't change the merit of an argument. https://t.co/YMRpByXqz7
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NBIS股价脱离基本面，宏观抛售属误杀，当前估值极具吸引力。
我可以99.9%地向你保证，$NBIS 80亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的预期在几个月前并未被计入股价，分析师/市场当时的预期约为20亿美元（约2-3个月前）。 而现在我们的交易价格低于$MSFT 交易宣布后的水平（约90-100美元）。 考虑到190亿美元的交易和收入爬坡，像Northland这样的看多机构分析师曾预测40亿美元ARR。看多派FinX（包括我自己）随着明年下半年另一笔超大规模云厂商交易的达成，将预期上调至60亿-70亿美元。 随后宣布80亿美元中位ARR至90亿美元，产能达2.5 GW（人们一直说$IREN 在2.8-~3.2 GW方面拥有巨大护城河），以及在同一季度意外宣布与$META 的交易（叠加$MSFT 交易），完全是个惊喜。 然而，财报后整体下跌26%是宏观因素导致的无差别抛售，并非因为上述第1、2、3、4点关于个股预期的原因。 重点是$NBIS 股价目前完全脱离了基本面，这次抛售简直是个笑话。
英文原文
I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago). And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100). Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year. Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise. However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections. The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.
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博主调侃有人注意到其关于PLTR CEO的引用。
@paramdan42454 @soulbiri1 很高兴有人注意到了关于 $PLTR 首席执行官(CEO)的引用，哈哈。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 @soulbiri1 glad some people caught the $PLTR ceo reference lol
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CRWV和ORCL的债务问题不影响NBIS，但财报前抛售剧烈。
@soulbiri1 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 在地理上都与 OpenAI 存在单一依赖关系，因此它们自身的债务问题不应影响 $NBIS。不过，正如你指出的那样，在财报发布前看到相关数据和分析师预测时，抛售行情确实令人咋舌。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Both $CRWV and $ORCL are geographically monogamous with OpenAI so their own debt problems shouldn’t affect $NBIS. But yeah sell-off was wild to watch when you point out the numbers and analyst projections before earnings.
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NBIS财报数据大幅超预期却暴跌26%，令人费解。
我想知道市场在 $NBIS 上到底抽了什么。 财报发布情况如下： 1. 最乐观的分析师预测年度经常性收入(ARR)为 40 亿美元。 2. 实际表现超出该数字 100%，预计达到 80 亿美元。 3. 签约产能指引超出 150% 以上，达到 2.5 GW。 4. 宣布与 $META 达成意外的 30 亿美元合同。 5. 股价暴跌 26%。
英文原文
I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS. Goes into earnings: 1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR 2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected 3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW 4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META 5. Drops 26%
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调侃对方观点源于马斯克AI猫娘帖
@DeepValueBagger 你确定你不是在看了 @elonmusk 的 AI 猫娘(AI Catgirl) 帖子后才产生这种理解的吗？
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Are you sure you didn't develop that understanding after watching AI catgirl posts from @elonmusk? https://t.co/NTOqoumOwx
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管理层若确认Lake站点泳池派对，CIFR将获支持。
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage 如果管理层确认不排除在 Lake 站点举办泳池派对，$CIFR 将获得大量支持（包括我在内）。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage There will be a lot of support behind $CIFR (myself included) if we get a confirmation from the executive team that they're not ruling out a pool party from the Lake site.
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调侃建议CIFR利用泳池办派对增收。
@accounting_ds 我认为 @rftylerpage 应该利用那个湖举办一场泳池派对。他们可以通过门票赚很多钱，特别是如果他们向那些需要理发的人宣传的话。很多人会参加，这将增加 $CIFR 第四季度的收入。
英文原文
@accounting_ds I think @rftylerpage should utilize the lake by hosting a pool party. They can profit a lot from entrance fees, especially if they promote it to people who need a hair cut. Many people will attend, it will increase Q4 $CIFR revenue.
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11月24日MSCI指数大幅流入$NBIS，虽金额未定但利好显著。
@soulbiri1 显然，11月24日 MSCI 指数对 $NBIS 的流入量在数千万美元至十亿美元区间。虽然无法确定确切数字，但这对资金流入帮助很大。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Apparently it's few hundred million inflow to low billion range for the MSCI inflow into $NBIS on Nov 24th. Can't really determine the exact number, but it helps with inflow a lot.
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NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
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驳斥用8年前言论否定某人当前比特币倡导立场的观点。
作为背景，当时的观点是存在多个网络的空间，例如以太坊(Ethereum)、XRP，而“最大主义者(Maximalists)”认为只有比特币(Bitcoin)有价值。那时BTC价格低于6000美元，比特币社区确实存在刻板印象。就像我开玩笑说Reddit和WSB今天被视为那样，这在8年后可能会冒犯他人。2018年，“乡巴佬比特币最大主义者”是比特币持有者的刻板印象，即使你仍然支持该网络并持有货币。快进8年，这种刻板印象已不存在，加密领域是一个包含USDC等代币的完整生态系统，跨越多个EVM网络及RWA代币化，你无需成为最大主义者即可成为比特币作为货币或网络的坚定倡导者。话虽如此，回溯近十年，剪辑视频并声称这是她现在的观点是虚伪的。8年前的愚蠢时刻并不意味着她今天不是比特币的倡导者。
英文原文
For context, the perspective back then was there's room for multiple networks, eg. Ethereum, XRP and "Maximalists" thought only Bitcoin has value. And this was when BTC was <$6K and the bitcoin community definitely had sterotypes. Just like how I joke about Reddit + WSB as being regarded today, this might be offensive in 8 years time. Redneck Bitcoin Maximalist was how a sterotype for Bitcoin holders in 2018, even if you still support the network and hold the currency. Fast forward 8 years, this sterotype doesn't exist, and crypto is whole ecosystem with tokens like USDC across many EVM networks and RWA tokenization and you don't need to be a Maximalist to be a strong advocate for Bitcoin as a currency. or network That being said, going back close to a decade, clipping a video, and claiming it's her perspective now is disingenuous. A silly moment 8 years ago doesn't mean that today she's not an advocate for Bitcoin.
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澄清 Gloria 维护比特币核心的资格，指出旧视频语境差异。
Gloria 是我现实生活中的朋友，她完全有资格继续维护比特币核心(Bitcoin Core)。我猜这是 Cal 或伯克利区块链项目(Blockchain at Berkeley) 在 2019 年左右关于 Cosmos/Tendermint 和其他网络大量工作时的旧视频。那时的比特币社区受众与现在不同。她非常聪明，这只是一个脱离语境的滑稽瞬间。
英文原文
Gloria's a real life friend of mine and she's well deserving of maintaining Bitcoin Core. I'm guessing was an old video from Cal or Blockchain at Berkeley when there was a lot of work on Cosmos/Tendermint and other networks back in 2019ish. Back then Bitcoiners were different audiences than now. She's incredibly intelligent and this is just an out-of-context silly moment.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.
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作者看好NBIS反弹，建议买入3-5月看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 鉴于每个人都值得被爱，我也会去接 $NBIS 这把下落的飞刀（Omoroi）。3月至5月的看涨期权更安全，但我预计 Weebius 会恢复！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
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澄清研究框架，强调信贷与债务风险对板块的影响。
两件事： - 阅读时最好越过第一句继续往下看 - 隔一个交易日再看帖子，百分比数据会发生变化。 我尊重你的专注，但你正在聚焦于一个无人进行的直接对比。这确实是一篇长文，大多数人可能会跳过正文直接看评论，但文中所做的唯一直接对比是： - NeoClouds（新云厂商）与Mag7（科技七巨头）的合同 - NeoClouds与资产负债表健康的公司 - 未与OpenAI直接签约的NeoClouds 所以再次帮你梳理一下，整篇文章的核心是关于信贷市场、债务结构、OpenAI资本支出悬顶，以及影响整个板块的生态系统风险。 使用1周到1个月的时间框架是为了展示NeoClouds从何处下跌（例如$IREN在微软交易后），以反映板块在盘前的整体下跌。使用隔一个交易日NeoClouds从盘前跌幅中恢复后的不同价格，并不会改变或有利于该论点。 阅读时最好越过第一句（我也持有$IREN）
英文原文
So two things: - It helps to read past the first sentence - percentages change when you look at a post a trading day later. I respect your dedication, but you’re zeroing in on a direct comparison nobody is making. It’s a long post for sure and most would just skip it and go to comments but the only direct comparisons made were - neoclouds with mag7 contracts - neoclouds with healthy balance sheets - neoclouds that don’t directly have contracts with OpenAI. So just to help you again, the whole post was about credit markets, debt structure, OpenAI capex overhang, and ecosystem risk affecting the whole sector. Using 1W to 1M timeframe is to show levels neoclouds dropped from (eg. $IREN after MSFT deal) for a sector wide drop from premarket. Using different prices a trading fay later when neoclouds recovered from premarket doesn’t change or favor the thesis. It helps to read past the first sentence (I own $IREN too)
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@KobeissiLetter 又有400亿美元资本支出流向像 $WULF / $CIFR 这样的新云服务商(neoclouds)以及 $GOOGL 的数据中心建设。与此同时，市场正因错误的原因而无差别抛售。 https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD
英文原文
@KobeissiLetter Another $40B in capex going to neoclouds like $WULF / $CIFR and the data center buildout by $GOOGL. Meanwhile markets are selling off indiscriminately for the wrong reasons. https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD
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因NBIS股价下跌，计划买入3股。
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS 又跌了几个百分点，也许是时候买入 3 股了。
英文原文
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS がさらに数パーセント下落したので、そろそろ 3 株買う頃かもしれない
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指出AI处理海量13F文件存在局限，曾尝试但结果出错。
@number1invest_ @grok 让 Grok 处理通过审查每一份 13F 文件(13F Filing)来进行的大量数据计算(13F filing)可能太多了。我记得在另一个帖子中要求它只输出一个结果，但它搞错了。 https://t.co/rP8XZNQMpX
英文原文
@number1invest_ @grok there's probably too much number crunching by reviewing every single 13F filing for Grok to handle. I remember asking it one single output in another thread but they go it wrong. https://t.co/rP8XZNQMpX
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TSSI暴跌后若仍依附DELL供应链，或是买入良机。
哇，太恶心了——$TSSI 暴跌 -42.69%，抱歉如果你持有该股。这很可能是数据中心板块抛售的一部分，且看来他们因运营失误导致业绩不及预期。 我有一段时间没关注它了，但如果他们仍在搭 $DELL 的便车，那么这可能是一个不错的买入机会。未来营收不少，包括 2026 年 Q1-Q2 来自 $SMCI 的订单。SMCI 也提到了积压订单的延迟。此外，随着数据中心建设，$DELL 也有大量积压订单。 市场也重挫了 $CRWV，原因是建设短期延迟。
英文原文
Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders. I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout. Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.
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驳斥AI板块恐慌，指出托管商受Mag7支持，是错杀买入机会。
这是$CRWV、$ORCL的OpenAI效应。市场在恐惧时是非理性的，将整个板块视为单一实体，而忽视了细微差别： GPU折旧——Burry的做空论点（硬件快速过时）： $CIFR、$WULF等完全不受影响，因为它们不购买GPU，而是做数据中心托管(Colo)。 信用风险——收紧使得所有资本密集型的AI建设成本更高且更脆弱。 $NBIS等...是孤立的（资产负债表强劲，可转换债务）。 未来收入泡沫，OpenAI没有足够的... $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF完全不受影响，因为它们由Mag7支持，而非OpenAI。 对某些人来说，这是令人发笑的买入机会。
英文原文
It's the $CRWV, $ORCL OpenAI Effect. Markets are irrational during fear and views the sector as a single entity vs. seeing the nuances: GPU Deprecation - Burry Short Thesis (rapid hardware obsolescence): $CIFR, $WULF, etc. Literally not affected since they don't buy GPUs and do colo. Credit Risk - tightening makes all capital-intensive AI buildouts more expensive and fragile. $NBIS and others... isolated (Strong balance sheet, convertible debt). Future Revenue Bubble with OpenAI not having enough $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF literally not affected since they're backed by Mag7, not OpenAI. Hilarious buying opportunity for some.
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IREN转全栈致风险激增，NBIS/CIFR基本面稳健却被板块性做空。
谢谢，是的，我之前做分级列表时将 $IREN 列为 S 级，但他们因试图通过购买数十亿 GPU 与 $CRWV 在全栈领域竞争而被大幅降级。许多 $IREN 持有者争论称托管(Colo)最盈利，但在 $IREN 的财报电话会上，他们明确表示因“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”而购买 GPU 并从事全栈业务。构建软件层比人们想象的要难得多，$IREN 的执行风险急剧上升。与此同时，$NBIS 和 $CRWV 已经掌握了这一环节（根据其白皮书，$NBIS 胜过 $CRWV），但 Coreweave 在利息债务和 OpenAI 风波中搞砸了。不幸的是，我们看到整个板块被做空，尽管存在许多细微差别，例如 $CIFR 不受 GPU 贬值论点的影响。或者 $NBIS 拥有超过 5 年的 Mag7 及企业客户、强劲的资产负债表，且不受 $ORCL 及信贷收紧引发的 AI 泡沫 OpenAI 风波影响。
英文原文
Thanks, yeah I had $IREN as S tier when I did my tierlist earlier but they got downgraded a lot because they ended up trying to compete vs $CRWV in the full-stack by buying billions in GPUs. A lot of IREN holders were arguing colo was most profitable, but in $IREN's earnings call, they literally said they were buying GPUs and doing the full-stack due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns". It's much, much harder building out the software layer than people think and the execution risk for IREN skyrocketed immensely. Meanwhile $NBIS and $CRWV already has that nailed down ( $NBIS wins vs. $CRWV per their whitepaper) but Coreweave messed up with interest debt + OpenAI drama. Unfortunately we're seeing a whole sector short despite many of the nuances eg. $CIFR not being affected by GPU depreciation arguments. Or $NBIS having Mag7 + enterprise customers over 5Y periods + strong balance sheet and not affected by AI bubble OpenAI fiasco with $ORCL + credit tightening.