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新云生态分化，NBIS领先，IREN执行存疑，市场尚未完全定价。
新云(Neocloud)并非赢家通吃，而是一个完整的生态系统，但并非所有公司都能成为AWS。 我们看到$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL在真正的“新云”领域竞争，这是一场最有利可图的全栈竞赛，旨在成为Azure/AWS。它们进行垂直整合、建设容量、购买GPU并进行编排，一些孵化企业也加入了竞争。 目前$NBIS是明确的赢家，拥有超大规模云厂商+企业客户+良好的资产负债表，只是时间问题；$CRWV深陷利息债务；$ORCL建设失败，且OpenAI是其最大且风险最高的积压订单。$IREN前景看好，但执行层面存在最大问号，因为其路径不同于人们预期的$CIFR模式，其容量和软件编排比人们预期的难得多（看看$ORCL和$CRWV在软件收购上花费的数十亿美元）。 然后是$CIFR、$WULF、矿工等，它们利用现有容量进行更安全的托管机房(Colo)业务，而像Amazon这样的超大规模云厂商则插入自己的GPU。我仍将其归为新云，但也许该单独分类了，不过它们不受Burry关于2年GPU淘汰论虚假言论的影响。 其余公司正在向高性能计算(HPC)转型，承诺未来X量的容量，但在信贷收紧背景下，为此转型融资越来越难。 随着近期一系列财报的发布，我们开始看到新兴赢家，这是好事。市场尚未定价，但只是时间问题。
英文原文
Neocloud isn't winner takes all, it's a whole ecosystem but not everything can become AWS. We're seeing $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL compete in the true "Neocloud", most profitable full stack race to become Azure/AWS. Doing vertical integration, building capacity, buying GPUs, and doing orchestration, and some incubants entering the race. So far $NBIS is the clear winner with hyperscalers + enterprises + good balance sheet in a matter of time, $CRWV is swamped with interest debt, $ORCL failed buildout so far and OpenAI as their biggest + risky backlog. $IREN is promising but they have the biggest question mark for execution since it's not the original approach like $CIFR people were expecting with their capacity and software orchestration is much harder than people expect (looking at $ORCL then $CRWV spending billions on software aqusitions). Then there's $CIFR, $WULF, miners, etc and others do safer colo with their existing capacity while hyperscalers like Amazon plugs in their own GPUs. I still put them as a Neocloud but I guess it's time to make a separate category, but these aren't as affected by Burry's false comments about 2Y GPU deprecation lol. And then we have the rest... undergoing the pivot to HPC, with X amount of future capacity promised and this is becoming increasingly difficult to raise money for this change from credit tightening. It's a good thing that we're starting to see emerging winners after the series of recent earnings. Market hasn't priced this in yet but it's a matter of time.
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XRP作为机构结算机制的优势与地址、余额等技术痛点分析。
自费用被销毁以防止通过供应销毁进行DDoS攻击以来，没有人... 这是一个过度简化的说法，但更类似于机构社区志愿者工作，以维护网络，而不是像ETH PoS那样有费用激励。只是不同的网络共识和方式。 我看到XRP被采用为机构间的结算机制（类似于Customers Bank Instant Token），并且由于即时最终性/低费用，我个人为跨境结算部分构建了一些应用程序（与美国银行代币相比），但在地址和最低余额方面有很多烦人的问题，就像Polkadot在入职/死资本方面一样，并且不像EVM那样广泛采用的脚本，你可以在Polygon到L2上部署相同的合约。
英文原文
Nobody since fees are burned to prevent ddos via supply burn. Oversimplification but it’s more like institutional community volunteer work in terms of maintaining the network rather than having fee incentive like eth pos. Just different network consensus and approach. I see xrp being adopted as a settlement mechanism in between institutions (kind of like Customers Bank Instant Token) and personally built some applications for cross country settlement part (vs. US bank tokens) just due to instant finality/low fees, but there’s a lot of annoying issues regarding addresses and minimum balances like Polkadot with onboarding/dead capital, and not widely adopted scripting like EVM where you can deploy the same contracts across polygon to l2.
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信贷收紧利好资产负债表健康的T1新云厂商，当前抛售是买入良机。
你的分析精准捕捉到了二阶Alpha。信贷收紧削弱了弱势竞争对手融资新建产能+改善远期自由现金流/利润率的能力，从根本上制约了其增长。 这意味着资产负债表健康且无高额债务利息的T1新云厂商（如$NBIS和$CIFR）将享有更持久的利润率。这是一个巨大的长期溢价，市场目前定价错误+在此次抛售中尚未计入。 正如我们所见，Mag7的资本支出正在增加，但正流向$NBIS、$WULF等赢家。由于$CRWV和$ORCL引发的恐慌+信贷收紧，我们正目睹一场不分青红皂白的抛售，这反而是买入机会，实际上也是受冲击最小的新云厂商的竞争优势。
英文原文
Your analysis nails the second-order alpha. Credit tightening hurts the ability of weaker competitors to fund new capacity + improve forward FCF/margins, fundamentally constraining growth. This translates to more durable margins to the T 1 Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR with healthy balance sheets and no high debt interest. This is a massive long term premium the market is currently mispricing + hasn't priced in yet with this sell-off. Mag7 capex as we've seen is increasing, but it's funneling into winners eg. $NBIS, $WULF, etc. We're seeing an indiscriminate sell-off due to panic from $CRWV and $ORCL + credit tightening, and this is a buying opportunity and actually a competitive advantage for the least affected Neoclouds.
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AI股因信贷收紧恐慌抛售，建议转向有Mag7合同且低债的新云龙头。
我们正目睹 AI + 数据中心(DC) 股票实时崩盘，$IREN 本周下跌 37.88%，$NBIS 本月下跌 35.27%。 恐慌源于信贷收紧、高息债务、OpenAI 传染效应、宏观因素，以及最重要的：非理性恐惧。 以下是实时发生的情况： 1. 信贷收紧 - 像 $APLD 这样的公司未能成功发行债券（认购不足），最终发行了 23.5 亿美元的高收益债务融资——彭博社 11 月 14 日报道。债券以 97 美分的价格折价出售，收益率约为 10%。 该债券交易的风险主要与 Applied Digital 对 $CRWV 的依赖有关，后者占其合同收入的大部分。随着建设阶段机构关注度增加（例如 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的做空报告），数据中心更难筹集资金。 融资条件收紧影响了整个通过发行债务为自身建设融资的生态系统。 2. 高息债务 - 由于信贷收紧，$CRWV 为扩张而承担的劣质债务导致每年超过 10 亿美元的损失。这侵蚀了利润率和自由现金流(FCF)。 同样，$APLD 和其他以不良收益率筹集资金的公司也面临同样的未来问题，我们看到相关公司因风险管理而出售。 3. OpenAI 承诺的 1 万亿美元+ 资金没有余额支撑 - OpenAI 承诺超过 1 万亿美元的资本支出(capex)，其中 224 亿美元+ 流向 $CRWV，3000 亿美元+ 流向 $ORCL，他们正在为此建设产能。由于 OpenAI 手头没有余额并采取避险策略，市场现在对这些承诺持怀疑态度。 现在，我们看到这种建设从 Coreweave 等公司向下传染到 $CORZ 和 $APLD，这些公司在建设期间可能依赖 $CRWV 的未来收入。 4. $CRWV 是 AI 基础设施（以及部分 $ORCL）的行业领导者。当行业领导者抛售时，通常其他公司会跟随。 5. 12 月降息概率下降： 除了高息债务外，我们看到 12 月降息概率降至约 53% 的抛硬币水平。较高的利率使得像 $CRWV 这样背负利息债务的公司再融资以增强 FCF 变得困难。 _ 细微差别与重新定位： 我们看到全面抛售。然而，Mag7（$META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT）的资本支出和合同已确认，且盈利能力极强。 有一种简单的方法可以安全重新定位，以避免未来收入增长 + 债务周期的问题。 1. 配置与 Mag7 有合同可见性的新云(Neoclouds)： - $NBIS - 190 亿美元 $MSFT 交易，30 亿美元来自 $META，广泛的企业支持 - $CIFR - 55 亿美元与 $AMZN 的 Colo 交易，30 亿美元与 $GOOGL 的交易 - $WULF - 37 亿美元+ 与 $GOOGL 的交易等。 - $IREN - 90 亿美元与 $MSFT 的交易 我们可能会看到更多像 $SLNH, $CLSK 等投机性容量公司下跌，并整合到具有可见企业合同（未来收入下行风险低）的新云中。 2. 配置无/极低息债务且资产负债表强劲的新云： 像 $NBIS 这样的公司因拥有 47.9 亿美元的可转换票据现金及现金等价物，而与当前信贷市场波动隔离。或者像 $CIFR 这样拥有 12 亿美元现金的公司。 3. 避免与 OpenAI 有直接合同而非 Mag7 的公司。 _ 新云是 Mag7 AI 算力的骨干。这一论点没有改变，我们可能会看到一些规模达到 1000 亿美元+ 的公司成为下一个 AWS。 然而，我们看到由 $CRWV, $ORCL 和 OpenAI + 信贷收紧（部分由于 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的错误机构做空报告）引起的广泛、不分青红皂白的抛售。 对于像 $NBIS 这样拥有 70-90 亿美元远期年度经常性收入(ARR) 和极强资产负债表的公司，这种抛售完全不合理。但对于其他投机性公司，这是一次必要的修正。 一句好话是“散户最后卖出，最后买回”。 如果你认为你可以卖出并在两周后回来，错过抛售后的一个或两个巨大反弹日可能会让你失去大部分恢复收益。 机构可能正在通过暗池/大宗交易购买更好的名字，例如 $NBIS，在这些清洗和保证金清算之后。我们还看到机构所有权从 38%-> 43-46%，尽管股价下跌。 利用这次机会购买好名字，并持有度过这些波动时期。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 13F 新云申报的机构流向评估： · Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 强烈正面 (7/10) · WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.5/10) · IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 非常负面 (3/10) · CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.0/10) · Coreweave ( $CRWV ): 🟡 中性 (5.5/10) · Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 高度正面 (9.0/10) _ TLDR 摘要更新： $NBIS · 机构所有权整体定量增长强劲，由坚实的长期机构买家以及量化基金和对冲基金的高活跃度驱动。 $WULF · 机构基础结构稳定且安全，以 Vanguard 和 BlackRock 等大型纯多头资产管理人为特征，他们对股票持有高信念。 $IREN · 所有权由高频交易员、做市商和量化基金（例如 Jane Street, Citadel）主导。这种结构被视为负面，因为它表明缺乏稳定的短期持有压力和长期机构缺乏信念。 $CIFR · 优秀的机构设置，以纳入主要指数（被动需求）和主动基金的强烈信念购买为标志，Alyeska 的大幅增持尤为突出。 $CRWV · 高交易量表明市场兴趣浓厚，但所有权目前高度集中，做市商存在显著，导致中性评分，暗示流向的风险/回报平衡。 $CLSK · 被认为是该组中最好的机构结构，结合了广泛支持的被动指数纳入和激进的、高信念的主动积累，表明定性风险最低。 _ 评论： 例如，“看多 - Jane Street + Citadel 拥有 x 的 $IREN ”（提示：这不是正面的）。尤其是当长期持有者如 FMR (Fidelity)：212 万股，大幅削减持仓时。 基金类型很重要，例如： 被动（最正面） Vanguard, BlackRock 指数, State Street, Geode 等 多头（正面） Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT 等 对冲基金（中性到正面） Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium 等 量化/做市商（负面） Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma 等 这是一个主观框架，用于仅从本季度评分流向有多正面（而非整体所有权）。
英文原文
We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month. Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear. Here's what happening real time: 1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%. The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds. Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout. 2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF. Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management. 3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances - Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for. The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach. And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue. 4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit. 5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall: On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF. _ THE NUANCE and Repositioning: We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However, Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability. There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles. 1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: - $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support - $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL - $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more. - $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue). 2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets: Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes. Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash. 3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. _ Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS. However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation). These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction. A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”. If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains. Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.
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博主回应质疑，强调自己为主动交易者，持仓会变动。
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech 持仓可能会变动，我是一名主动交易者(active trader)。
英文原文
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech Positions can change, I'm an active trader
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博主回应提及持有IREN股票
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech 我有 $IREN 你知道的
英文原文
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech i have $IREN you know
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关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
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推荐Fintel和纳斯达克机构持仓数据源
@beauty_oe @babyfolio Fintel 和纳斯达克机构持仓板块(Nasdaq institutional holdings section)
英文原文
@beauty_oe @babyfolio Fintel and Nasdaq institutional holdings section
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转发推文并提及两位博主，无具体观点。
@midlevelcruiser @DivesTech https://t.co/nfZlHHRpoE
英文原文
@midlevelcruiser @DivesTech https://t.co/nfZlHHRpoE
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AI股短期暴跌，但基本面改善令长期看涨。
@DivesTech “迷你恐慌”。更像是全线个股的崩盘，例如 $IREN 暴跌 38%，$ALAB 本周重挫 20.30%。但正如你所说，由于基本面改善，我对长期走势依然看涨。https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
英文原文
@DivesTech "Mini Panic". More like crash in names across the board with stocks like $IREN crashing 38% to $ALAB tanking 20.30% this week. But as you said I'm bullish too longer term due to improving fundamentals. https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
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要求AI结合上下文回答问题。
@VG3024 @grok 请结合帖子的上下文回答上述问题。
英文原文
@VG3024 @grok answer the question above in the context of the post
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机构逢低吸纳NBIS，散户因恐慌抛售。
@babyfolio 实际上，使用其他一些数据集，这一比例是 46.3%。 是的，机构正在从 $NBIS 的散户手中逢低吸纳。不过并非所有人都关注 X 平台，因此在那之外，可能有很多不了解其基本面和远期增长的群体正在恐慌性抛售。
英文原文
@babyfolio Oh it’s actually 46.3% with some other datasets. Yeah institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there’s probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don’t understand their fundamentals and forward growth https://t.co/2sRhYsKZ5Q
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13F多为噪音，短期下跌属宏观无差别抛售。
不，13F 文件（13F filings）很多时候只是噪音，除非是伯克希尔（Berkshire）在买入。而这些评分只是判断某只股票是否适合长期持有（例如：是否有大量长期被动基金投资者做多该股票）这一多维方法中的一个小信号。 短期内，像 $CIFR 或 $CORZ 这样的下跌是宏观因素导致的，因此这是全市场的无差别抛售。
英文原文
No, 13F filings a lot of time is just noise unless you have Berkshire buying in. And these scores are just one small signal of a multifaceted way to determine if something is a good long (eg. Do you have lots of long-passive fund investors going long on a stock) Short term on stuff like $CIFR or $CORZ drops were macro, so it’s an indiscriminate selloff across the board.
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高贝塔AI股因宏观恐慌错杀，基本面强劲者终将迎来价值回归。
我们正目睹高贝塔值AI股票板块的崩盘，部分个股在1个月内下跌30-45%+，今日再跌10%+。 这包括直接受益于“七巨头”资本支出的公司： - Nebius ($NBIS)：$META 30亿美元交易 / 80亿美元远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR)。 - TeraWulf ($WULF)：Anthropic数据中心(<500亿美元) + 与$GOOGL的合资光纤网络(FS)。 - Iren ($IREN)：$MSFT 90亿美元高性能计算(HPC)。 - Cipher ($CIFR)：与$AMZN签署15年55亿美元合同。 这些公司在过去一个月里改善了基本面。 但市场仍在恐慌性抛售从$CRDO (-10.33% 1D)到$CIFR (-7.28% 1D)的股票，尽管它们拥有创纪录的远期收入增长。 这主要是由宏观担忧（政府停摆、12月降息、公司债利差等）和虚假（但微妙）的机构观点（如Burry关于GPU折旧的说法）驱动的，而非基于个股基本面。 这清洗了AI投机性板块（如能源股$OKLO，1个月跌37%）中的泡沫，但高利润率的增长型股票也受牵连。 我之前说过，这让我想起$HOOD从$65跌至$28后反弹至$150，或$ALAB在所有财报超预期后从$100跌至$50再反弹至$245。 当市场充满恐惧，尤其是像现在这样的“AI泡沫”恐慌时，股价有时会与基本面脱节。 但当远期增长能支撑市值预期时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today. This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex : - Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR. - TeraWulf ( $WULF ): <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL - Iren ( $IREN ): $9B $MSFT HPC - Cipher ( $CIFR ): 15Y $5.5 billion w/ $AMZN. that improved their fundamentals in this past month alone. But markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth. This is driven over fears from macro (shutdown, Dec rate cut, corporate bond spreads, etc) and false (but nuanced) institutional claims eg. Burry on GPU depreciation, rather than individual fundamentals. This wipes away froth from the speculative parts of the AI sector such as $OKLO (energy, -37% 1M), but higher-margin growth names get caught together with it. I've said this before, but this reminds me of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a rally to $150. Or when $ALAB sold off from $100 to $50 off all earnings beats, then rallied to $245. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets, especially with “AI bubble” fears like what's happening now. But when the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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作者调整META期权策略摊低成本，预期其将如NBIS般恢复。
@Neat_Lama 是的，感觉好多了。$META 的超卖走势出乎意料，但我预计它会在1月恢复。 我将期权从1月轮换至3月/4月到期，并摊低成本至约$640。目前仍大幅亏损，但我预计它会像 $NBIS 一样恢复。
英文原文
@Neat_Lama Yeah feeling better. $META extended selloff was unexpected but I expect it to recover by Jan. I rotated Jan into March/April expiration and averaged down to $640-ish. Still down a lot but I expect it to recover like $NBIS.
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反驳 Burry 观点，指出旧款 GPU/TPU 仍高利用率且具残值。
关于 $ORCL、$NBIS 及其他新云厂商 GPU 折旧论点的简要总结： Burry 的一般主张：处于 2-3 年产品周期的芯片资本支出（Capex）不应导致有用寿命的延长。 这一观点错误但具有细微差别： -> 以 $GOOGL 为例，其 7 年前的张量处理单元(TPU) 仍以 100% 利用率运行。 “谷歌称 TPU 需求超过供应，声称 8 年前的硬件迭代‘利用率达 100%’”——数据中心动态 -> 以 $NVDA 为例，A100（PCIe 和 SXM4 变体）仍在运行。它们于 2020 年发布，现在是 2025 年。旧型号保持价值并仍能带来收益。 它们具有残值，5 年后仍能高价转售。他在货架寿命上错了，但在某些超大规模云服务商如何拉伸利用率概念以证明激进资本支出合理性方面，他可能是对的。
英文原文
Just a TLDR on the GPU depreciation argument for $ORCL, $NBIS and other neoclouds, Burry's general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives. This is incorrect but nuanced: -> in $GOOGL's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are still run at 100% utilization. " Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in $NVDA's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's wrong on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex.
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NBIS因市场过度反应大跌，机构报告对其商业模式构成压力测试。
确实，这会影响市场情绪，甚至导致过度反应，正如我们目前在 $NBIS 身上看到的（例如：年化经常性收入(ARR)超预期200%+，与 $META 的意外交易，却下跌20%+）。但像摩根大通(JPM)或伯瑞(Burry)这类机构报告，确实在根本上对商业模式进行了压力测试，例如更高的借贷成本和更严格的贷款条件。
英文原文
Well it does impact market sentiment to the point of overreaction, which we're seeing with $NBIS right now. (eg. beats ARR estimates by 200%+, surprise $META deal, down 20%+) But those types of institutional reports from JPM or Burry does fundamentally stress test business models a bit eg. higher borrowing costs and stricter loans.
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AI板块遭无差别抛售，基本面改善的个股如NBIS现买入机会。
这是多种因素的混合影响： - 对高贝塔值(High-Beta) + AI 股票的无差别抛售 - 政府停摆延长 - 12 月降息概率 - 因折旧会计处理增加的做空头寸 一些像 $NBIS 这样的股票尽管创下历史新高盈利且基本面积极，仍受板块抛售影响。 另一些像 $CRWV 的股票因延迟导致远期盈利不及预期，其短期表现更易于理解。 总体而言，来自像 $CIFR（与 AWS 合作）和 $WULF（与 Anthropic 合作，今日宣布 500 亿美元建设计划）等 Neoclouds 公司的财报(ER)和更新非常积极。 如果像 NEbius 这样的股票在基本面改善的情况下被抛售，那就是买入机会。
英文原文
It's a mix of: - indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks - government shutdown extensions - rate cut December odds - increased shorts from depreciation accounting Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals. Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays. Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today. If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.
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成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
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类比HOOD反弹，认为NBIS下跌源于恐慌，基本面仍支撑市值。
我刚刚想起 $HOOD 从 $65 跌至 $28，随后上演了一波撕裂面孔的反弹至 $150 的情景。当市场充满恐惧时，股价有时会脱离基本面。$NBIS 因“AI 泡沫”担忧而在更广泛的抛售中受累，正是如此。然而，前瞻性增长支撑了任何市值预测，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
I just got reminded of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a face ripping rally to $150. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets. This is happening with $NBIS when it gets caught in broader selloffs because of “AI bubble” fears. Yet the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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建议用杠杆博取NBIS反弹，认为其230亿市值严重低估。
@Wutarded 如果我想在这样规模的组合中承担更多风险，我会使用保证金或LEAPS（长期股权预期权）来增加杠杆。 我很确定$90-93是底部，对于$NBIS日益增长的基本面来说，230亿美元的市场规模简直是有罪（被严重低估）。
英文原文
@Wutarded I’d do margin/leaps here for more leverage if I wanted to take on more risk with that portfolio size. Pretty sure $90-93 is bottom, $23B market cap for the growing fundamentals of $NBIS is just criminal at this point.
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博主更正财务指标笔误并采纳粉丝建议。
@LouLoubso 哎呀，是 EBIT*，你说得对。
英文原文
@LouLoubourso Whoops EBIT* you’re right
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卖出低贝塔股，重仓超卖的新云板块及多只AI相关个股。
@soulbiri1 现在对 $NBIS 的敞口超过 200 万美元，在低于 96 美元时大幅加仓。在 53.8 美元重新买入 $IREN，17.3 美元买入 $CIFR，并首次建仓 $CORZ - 16.3 美元，$SMCI - 38 美元的中期头寸。整个板块被极度超卖，简直可笑。今天卖出了我的低贝塔（Low-Beta）股票，以便重仓回归新云（Neoclouds）领域。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $2M+ in $NBIS exposure now, added super heavily at <$96. Rebought $IREN at $53.8, $CIFR at $17.3 and initiating $CORZ - $16.3, $SMCI - $38 mid term positions. The whole sector is hilariously oversold. Sold off my low-beta stocks today to position heavily back into Neoclouds.
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重申 $NBIS 核心业务与高增长逻辑，呼吁投资者在市场回调中保持信念。
如果在这次市场回调中你有一丝怀疑。 请记住这一点： $NBIS 是一家市值 240 亿美元的公司，远期年度经常性收入 (ARR) 为 80 亿美元，目标 EBITDA 利润率 30%。 Nebius 的核心业务为从 $MSFT 到 $META 的 Mag7 超大规模云服务商、从 Shopify 到 Cursor 再到埃森哲的企业，以及政府人工智能基础设施提供动力。 他们拥有 100 亿美元以上的净资产价值 (NAV)，其超增长投资组合公司赋能了 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 当然，Nebius 同比增长 700%+，这在从季度收入 1.25 亿美元到仅 1 年内达到 20 亿美元+的过程中几乎闻所未闻。 这家公司处于整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心，股价为 $93，有望成为下一家市值 1000 亿美元+的公司。 不要让广泛的抛售影响你的信念。
英文原文
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure. They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year. This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next $100B+ company. Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.
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博主表示乐意继续持有NBIS的套牢仓位。
@dubiousnoob @Mitchelldzll @455BAG 我很乐意继续持有 $NBIS 的套牢仓位。 https://t.co/AX2GN6tA5F
英文原文
@dubiousnoob @Mitchelldzll @455BAG Im happy bagholding $NBIS https://t.co/AX2GN6tA5F
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反驳死扛泡沫论，强调$NBIS基本面强劲且估值合理。
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG 在美联储收紧货币时持有市值200亿美元但零收入的量子计算公司，这才是“死扛泡沫破裂”(Bag holding a bubble burst)。 而不是持有像 $NBIS 这样年营收增长700%+、年经常性收入(ARR)达80亿美元、EBITDA利润率20-30%、持有约60亿美元以上净资产(NAV)资产（这些资产来自为Meta和Anthropic提供动力的公司）、市值240亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG Bag holding a bubble burst is when you hold $20B mc 0 revenue quantum companies under Fed tightening. Not a company ( $NBIS ) growing 700%+ Y/Y doing $8 Billion ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, holding ~$6B+ in NAV assets from companies powering Meta and Antrophic, valued at $24B
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NBIS业绩超预期且基本面与股价脱节，作者今日重仓买入并看好其超越CRWV。
$NBIS 超出预期，我没看到任何分析师模型预测 $70-90 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入），这简直是令人咋舌的增长（同比增长 700%+）。 目前市场出现无差别抛售，但： - 政府停摆可能今天结束 - $NBIS 将于 11 月 24 日因纳入指数带来资金流入 - 12 月圣诞行情 - 12 月前有 70% 的概率降息 供参考：最看多的分析师预计 ARR 约为 30 亿，而 Nebius 指引是该数字的 2.5 倍。目前基本面与股价脱节，我个人今天已重仓买入。 我认为 Nebius 将在下一个增长/复苏周期中超越 $CRWV。
英文原文
$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y). Indiscriminate selloff right now but: - Gov shutdown likely ending today - $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov - Santa rally Dec -70% rate cut into Dec FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today. I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.
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Northland上调目标价，NBIS业绩超预期，作者逢低加仓。
Northland 刚刚将其目标价(PT)上调至 $211（跑赢大盘），但这 $6 的涨幅可能只是随机波动。正如你所说，我们两人都在建模约 $50-70 亿 ARR，而 $NBIS 刚刚凭借强劲的财报表现，将指引提升至 $70-90 亿。不幸的是，从 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的板块性抛售正在发生，但基本面与股价已脱节，本周跌幅达 20%。我利用这次机会在 $96 加仓。一家年增长率超过 700% 的企业显然定价错误，主要受宏观恐慌和板块回调影响。
英文原文
Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump. As you mentioned, we both were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure. Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week. I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.