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驳斥媒体抹黑,指出微软已签长期保底协议,服务器过剩论不成立。
这篇文章写得极差,且完全缺乏背景信息。上次他们发布针对 Oracle 的抹黑文章时,这种故意剥离背景的做法就引发了更广泛的抛售 @SEC @secpaulsatkins 文章的核心观点——“不断升级的计算需求可能导致服务器建设过剩,且无法获得足够的财务回报”——完全忽略了 $MSFT 已与多家新云厂商(例如与 Nebius 的 170-190 亿美元协议,或与 $CRWV 的协议)签署了多年期的合同预留,以确认其使用率。 这些都是微软为扩大产能而签署的数十亿美元最低使用量协议,且不含“随意终止”条款。 通过剥离这些背景,这篇文章就变成了空头抹黑帖加上“Sam Altman 是个坏人”的叙事,而非真正的新闻。
英文原文
Extremely poorly written and zero-contextualization article. Intentional no-contextualization led to broader selloffs last time they published an Oracle hit-piece @SEC @secpaulsatkins The core point - “Escalating compute demands could result in overbuilt servers without sufficient financial returns” - completely omits that $MSFT signed multi-year contractual reservations for confirmed utilization with many neoclouds (eg. $17-19B with Nebius or with $CRWV) These are tens-of-billions in minimum-utilization agreements Microsoft signed to scale capacity without “at-will” termination clauses. By stripping out that context, this becomes a short seller hit piece + Sam Altman terrible person narrative rather than actual news.
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驳斥关于微软与Nebius租赁协议可随意终止的谣言,引用SEC文件澄清条款。
这是一条极其危险的帖子,因为你在散布虚假信息。我希望你能在帖子造成麻烦之前进行更正:“他们获得了极佳的租赁交易,并且拥有随时终止的选项,毫无风险”。以下是来自实际 SEC 文件中的终止条款:- 如果 Nebius 在宽限期后未能满足该批次 GPU 服务(GPU Service)的约定交付日期,且无法提供替代容量,微软(Microsoft)可以终止协议下的特定 GPU 服务批次。- 如果另一方实质性违反协议且在 60 天内未予补救,任何一方均可因故终止协议。- 如果另一方出现以下情况,任何一方也可终止协议:- 停止经营、解散或清算;或 - 被提起破产或无力偿债程序(除非在 30 天内驳回)——除非是第 11 章重组且协议正转让给有偿付能力的实体。不存在“随意”(at-will)终止权。
英文原文
Extremely dangerous post because you’re spreading disinformation. I hope you can make a correction before the post causes trouble: “They get great lease deals with the option to terminate literally at any time, without the risk” These are the termination clauses from actual SEC filings: - Microsoft may terminate a specific GPU Service tranche under the agreement if, after a grace period, Nebius fails to meet the agreed delivery dates for that tranche and cannot provide alternative capacity. - Either party may terminate the agreement for cause if the other party materially breaches the agreement and does not remedy it within 60 days. - Either party may also terminate if the other party: - Ceases to do business, dissolves or liquidates; or - Has a bankruptcy or insolvency proceeding instituted against it (which is not dismissed within 30 days) — except where it’s a Chapter 11 reorganization and the agreement is being transferred to a solvent entity. There is no “at-will” termination right.
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博主感谢多位用户及ChatGPT提供的见解。
@_Mitchel_lauren @blu400_ @DeepValueBagger @babyfolio 感谢各位的见解,ChatGPT。
英文原文
@_Mitchel_lauren @blu400_ @DeepValueBagger @babyfolio thanks for the insight chatgpt
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做市商压制NBIS股价,预期周一空头平仓后反弹,故买入看涨期权。
做市商(MM)很可能正在对 $NBIS 进行价格压制(Pinning),尽管市场波动,股价仍卡在 $113.5 附近。我预计周一空头对冲头寸将平仓(鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并卖出看涨期权 -> 临近到期时存在大量空头头寸),价格将回升,因此我利用这次机会在高隐含波动率(IV)下买入看涨期权。
英文原文
It's likely MM pinning for $NBIS, you can see this with the price stuck at $113.5 despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up, hence why I used this time to buy calls despite elevated IV.
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看好某只股票,认为持有无问题且上行空间大。
@Lxizny 这是一只很棒的股票,持有它没有任何问题,上行空间很大。
英文原文
@Lxizny It's a great stock, nothing wrong with holding, lot of upside.
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博主回应粉丝关于粉丝增长速度的调侃,互致感谢。
@pepemoonboy 你太抬举我了哈哈,我觉得我短期内不太可能达到10万粉丝。不过你自己也快到了,已经有3.2万了! 我对自己的成长很满意,也很高兴看到你的粉丝也在增长,感谢你的美言。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy You flatter me too much lol, I don’t think I’ll hit 100k anytime soon. But you're getting close yourself with 32k! I’m happy with my growth so far and really love to see your following grow too, appreciate the kind words
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博主反思应多买NBIS价外期权,但表示释然。
@babyfolio 2026年12月到期的期权,$110-$115的价位! 我现在回想起来,本应该多做一些价外(OTM)的$NBIS $125行权价期权。不过没关系。
英文原文
@babyfolio December strikes like $110-$115 for 2026! I should have done more OTM $NBIS strikes like $125 now that I think of it. It’s okay though
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博主感谢粉丝鼓励,因书签点赞比高而备受鼓舞。
@DeepValueBagger 谢谢鼓励,我也很喜欢读你的帖子。我记得上个月我大概有 600 个粉丝,现在突然变成了 7K+。看到书签与点赞的比例是 1:2,这让我心里很温暖,如果人们觉得我的内容有帮助,这会让我更有动力。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Thanks for the encouragement, I really love reading your posts too. Last I remember I had like 600 followers last month and now there’s randomly 7K+. Warms my heart that like to bookmark ratio is 1:2 so it does keep me more motivated if people find my stuff helpful.
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博主宣布加入X变现,承诺收益全捐,坚持从市场而非粉丝获利。
完全透明: 我已加入 X 货币化计划——以下是我本月的数据: • 530 万曝光量 📈 • 1.7 万点赞(+734%)👍 • 8900 次收藏(+5000%+)🔖 • 1300 次转发(4000%+)🐦 作为一名交易者,我从市场(例如 $NBIS)赚钱,而不是从粉丝或订阅者那里赚钱。 我基于自己的论点进行交易,并且总是言行一致(真金白银投入)。 🫂因此,来自 X 的每一分钱都将直接回馈社区和慈善机构。 我的目标是分享我的交易方式(因为对有益信息设置付费墙没有意义),并揭示帮助普通人穿越噪音的见解。 感谢自从我不久前提加入 X 以来大家的所有支持。这意味着我可以帮助更多人! 行动 > 言语。 从市场赚钱,而不是从粉丝身上赚钱。
英文原文
Full Transparency: I've joined X Monetization - here are my stats this month: • 5.3M Impressions 📈 • 17K Likes (+734%) 👍 • 8.9k Bookmarks (+5,000%+) 🔖 • 1.3k Shares (4,000%+) 🐦 As a trader, I make money in the markets (eg. $NBIS), never from followers or subs. I trade on my own thesis and always put my money where my mouth is. 🫂Thus, every cent from X will go straight back to the community + to charity. My goal is to share how I trade (since there’s no point in paywalling helpful information) and surface insights that helps regular people navigate through the noise. Grateful for all the recent support since I just joined X not too long ago. It just means I can help more people! Actions > words. Make money off the markets, not off followers.
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博主调侃某方正在售卖高价课程
@DeepValueBagger @Nolanha48839088 哈哈,确实如此。他们现在正在售卖399美元的课程 https://t.co/THsjzWCtkp
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Nolanha48839088 Actually lol. They're selling $399 courses right now https://t.co/THsjzWCtkp
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NBIS下跌源于交易因素非基本面,建议周一做市商解除对冲后做多。
是的,$NBIS 这10%的下跌是市场做市商(MM)的对冲加上期权平仓(混合了散户的保证金清算),并非基本面有任何变化。 -> 很多人卖出了看跌期权(Puts) -> 很多人持有的看涨期权(Calls)本周到期。 你可以看到盘后股价完全被钉在$113.5。 在我看来,周一市场做市商(MM)解除空头对冲后,现在是做多和买入的好时机。
英文原文
Yeah this $NBIS 10% drop was MM hedging + option unwinds (with a mix of retail margin liqudations), not any changes to fundamentals. -> Lot of people sold puts -> Lot of people had calls expiring this week. You can see how the stock is completely pinned at $113.5 after hours. Great time to go long and buy positions IMO after MMs unwind short hedges Monday.
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博主在 HIMS 大跌时加仓,表示拥抱波动。
@DeepValueBagger 我今天实际上在 $HIMS 下跌 14.34% 至 50.7 美元时加仓了。拥抱波动 🎢
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I just added $HIMS today actually at $50.7 on the 14.34% drop Embrace the volatility 🎢
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认同对方观点,因判断为极端下跌而买入LEAPS。
@DeepValueBagger 是的,完全正确。我只是觉得这是极端下跌,所以最终选择了做多LEAPS(长期股权预期权)。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yep, spot on. I just felt like this was the extreme drop so ended up doing leaps.
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博主计划在NBIS大跌时买入长期期权。
@DeepValueBagger 我一直在等待像这样(基本面没有实质性变化)10%以上的跌幅,以便买入 $NBIS 的长期期权(LEAPS)。很高兴你也看到了这个机会。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I've been waiting for a 10%+ drop like this (with no material changes to fundamentals) to buy leaps on $NBIS. Glad you see the opportunity too.
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作者基于信念交易,认为NBIS长期期权表现将类似HOOD的V型反转。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 的LEAPS(长期期权)应该会有不错的表现,这让我想起$HOOD从40美元跌至29美元,随后反弹至100美元以上的时期。 我基于自己的信念进行交易!
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $NBIS leaps should print, reminds me of the time $HOOD went from $40 to $29 then went on a rally to $100+. I trade on my own conviction!
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NBIS市值逼近OKLO,但前者明年ARR预计达40-60亿。
@_visionarius 当然!$NBIS 的市值几乎追平了 $OKLO。区别在于后者尚未产生收入,而 Nebius 明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)预计将达到 40-60 亿美元 lol。
英文原文
@_visionarius Of course! $NBIS is almost at $OKLO's marketcap. The difference is the latter is pre-revenue and Nebius is set to do $4-6B ARR next year lol.
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分享2026年12月到期的实值看涨期权示例
@Para_Capital 一堆2026年12月到期的实值(OTM)行权价期权,例如$110看涨期权 https://t.co/CmJcNAunUv
英文原文
@Para_Capital Bunch of December ITM strikes 2026 1 year out, eg. $110 call https://t.co/CmJcNAunUv
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博主分享个人期权交易偏好,倾向2026年12月轻度实值合约。
@genZinvest0r 我个人做了很多2026年12月到期的、轻度实值(OTM)的期权,例如$110。
英文原文
@genZinvest0r I personally did a lot of Dec 2026, slightly ITM Eg. $110
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博主在NBIS大跌时加仓30万看涨LEAPS,视其为绝佳买入机会。
抛售 $NBIS 我个人在这个价位加购了30万美元的看涨LEAPS(长期股权预期证券),在我看来,10%的跌幅是巨大的买入机会。
英文原文
Fire sale $NBIS Personally added $300K in call leaps at this level, 10% drop is a huge buying opportunity imo. https://t.co/EYYmETApmP
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AI核心标的275美元为极佳买点
@spybear180 是的,约 275 美元。整个 AI 交易的核心,即使在 291 美元也是极佳的买入机会。
英文原文
@spybear180 Yeah ~$275. Center of the whole AI trade, even at $291 it’s an amazing buy
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警示短期期权风险,看好AMZN隐含波动率回归潜力。
这就是为什么人们不应该做短期期权!(我看到很多WSB帖子讨论$TSM的周权,为了财报)。方向是对的,但像这样的随机事件会抹平看涨期权。不过,我认为$AMZN看起来最具吸引力,主要是因为隐含波动率(IV)回归的潜力,我们看看市场能否保持开放。
英文原文
This is why people shouldn’t do short term options! (I saw a lot of WSB posts about $TSM weeklies for earnings). It’s correct directionally but random events like this happen to wipe out calls. But yeah I think $AMZN looks the most tempting just cause of IV return potential, we’ll see what holds market open.
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降息在即,建议利用回调做多NBIS、TSM等高确信度AI及科技股。
距离降息还有12天(概率94.1%)。做市商(MMs)喜欢利用这样的时机清洗期权链(option chain)。 就我个人关注的杠杆交易(leveraged trades)关键价位而言: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKLB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ 特别点名亚马逊,尽管市场反弹,其年初至今(YTD)仍下跌4.6%。 $AMZN - $200-$210(现在$211买入看涨期权(calls)极佳,让我想起$GOOGL在史诗级反弹前的$145。基本上现在看起来不错,但像Google一样,它跌破了人们预期的水平,所以甚至可能触及$200) 我对高确信度(high conviction)标的使用保证金+期权没问题,这只是我个人的风险承受能力,非财务建议(NFA)。 现在是做多高确信度标的的最佳时机。
英文原文
We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain. In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKlB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally. $AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200) I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA. These times are the best to go long on high conviction.
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建议无视噪音,关注基本面,利用散户恐慌期积累AI算力龙头筹码。
谢谢,只是目前 Mag7 对 AI 算力(数据中心、电力)的需求出现了绝对激增,而许多此类公司的机构持股比例极低(例如 $NBIS 为 38%,而通常理想区间为 60-75%)。散户可能因错误原因(例如看到 $AMSL 建厂放缓就抛售,尽管 AMSL 正在扩建晶圆厂,却无视 $TSM 今日公布的远期营收/利润率激增)或受特定地区银行冲击影响,将 $MSFT 或 $GOOGL 的未来基础设施资产恐慌性抛售给机构。如果普通人不理解宏观,这类噪音有助于对冲基金在不大幅推高价格的情况下积累筹码。最好关注基本面+增长是否完好(确实完好,且我们此前低估了需求),并忽略如 ORCL 新闻或短期宏观冲击等看空报道。
英文原文
Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%). Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much. It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.
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TSM超预期证明AI基建强劲,反驳仅凭ASML看衰半导体的观点。
是的,随着 $TSM 全面大幅超出盈利预期,我们已经对未来增长有了一些洞察。 我总看到 X 上的人只引用 $ASML 就声称半导体扩张正在放缓,但这完全错了。ASML 衡量的是晶圆厂(Fab)扩张周期。 人们只需看看 TSM,因为它是衡量 AI 数据中心/AI 建设最纯粹的方式,毕竟他们几乎制造所有东西 lol。 而且他们确实预测了高增长+扩大的利润率。 量子/矿产等更具投机性。有些可能会表现良好,但像 Neoclouds 这样的高远期营收/利润是最可持续的,并将在未来的财报中引发市值的大幅重估。
英文原文
Yeah we already got some insights into future growth with $TSM blowing out high expectations on earnings across the board. I keep seeing people on X saying semi expansion is slowing by only citing $ASML but they're completely wrong. ASML is a measurement of Fab expansion cycles. People just need to look at TSM, which is the purest way to measure AI datacenter/AI buildout because they literally make everything lol. And they literally projected high growth + expanded margins. Quantum/Minerals, etc are more speculative. Some might turn out well, but high forward rev/profit on stuff like Neoclouds are the most sustainable and will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps in future earnings reports.
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区域银行恐慌是买入AI基建及新云厂商的良机,优选有真实营收支撑的标的。
宏观与回调思考 10月16日: 市场动态繁多,例如 $GLD 创历史新高,但这涉及美元的另一条复杂线索。今日股市主要下跌源于区域银行的冲击,因此我将聚焦于此。 以下是极佳的买入机会: 拥有确认的 Mag7 合同的新云厂商(Neoclouds) - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) 等。 AI 基础设施建设(AI Buildout) - 半导体如 $TSM(强烈买入,这类在爆发式财报后似乎总是回调以清洗看涨期权)。我们已有爆发式财报数据及增长的利润率+远期营收,$TSM 是我见过最简单的做多标的。TSM 的印钞能力也支持这一建设论点。 - 能源如 $FLNC 可能因数据中心建设+AI 使用带来的重估而继续上涨。 加密货币 - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 都是极好的买入点,但我对 $CRCL 等会稍加谨慎。人们可能对 2023 年 Silvergate 倒闭及 USDC 脱钩仍有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)。 某些股票急需修正: - 量子计算 - 机器人/无人机 - 关键矿产(仅特定标的可能优质) 这些公司零营收却因炒作呈抛物线增长。 区别在于,新云厂商+AI 基础设施建设是基于执行确认的营收。它们虽都是国家安全风险,但 AI 建设有全球最富有的超大规模云厂商背书。 “$AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL 等今年资本支出预计达 3200 亿。”- BI “$META, OpenAI 和 $ORCL 宣布未来几年将在数据中心投入超 1 万亿美元。”- BI 具体发生的情况: 市场今日因区域银行担忧下跌,但可能被夸大。最新恐慌源于 Zion/Western Alliance 的借款人欺诈。我猜测是个别银行问题,而非会导致信贷紧缩的系统性银行崩溃。 两周后降息概率接近 98%。这是全面必要的修正(以清除泡沫)+杠杆交易+期权流向。利用此次修正做多。 这仍是整个 AI 建设的最早期阶段,我预计 $NBIS 为例,1 年内 ARR 将增至 45 亿-70 亿+,市值从当前增至 600 亿+。 再次强调,新云厂商的炒作源于远期营收增长(基本面),而量子/部分无人机公司的炒作基于承诺。现在是扩大拥有疯狂远期营收增长(将导致市值大幅重估)公司多头的完美时机,而非仅如量子计算般的行业叙事/投机。
英文原文
Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th: There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD. Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that. It's a great buying opportunity on: Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) etc. AI Buildout - Semis such as $TSM (Screaming buy it always seem to dips like this after blowout earnings to wipe off calls). We already have blowout earnings numbers and increasing margins + forward revenue, $TSM is just the easiest long I've ever seen. TSM printing money also supports this builtout thesis. - Energy such as $FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use. Crypto - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 all amazing buys, I'd be a tad more cautious of $CRCL and others though. People probably have PTSD from 2023 silvergate, etc. going down and USDC depegging. It's a much needed correction for certain stocks: - Quantum - Robotics/Drones - Critical Minerals (only specific ones are likely good) That have 0 revenue and are increasing parabolically off hype. _ The difference is that Neoclouds + AI Buildout is confirmed revenue based on execution. They're all national security risks but AI Buildout has the wealthiest hyperscalers in the world are backstopping it. " $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL, and others could spend an estimated 320B on capex this year". - BI " $META, OpenAI, and $ORCL, have announced plans to spend more than $1 Trillion on Data Centers in the next several years"- BI _ In terms of what happened in specific: Markets dipped today on regional banking fears, but it's likely overblown. The latest scare was due to Zion/Western Alliance mainly due to borrower fraud. My guess is that it's individual banks, not systemic banking collapses that would have credit tightening. We have a near-confirmed rate cut (close to 98%) in 2 weeks time. This is a correction needed across the board (to wipe away the froth) + leverage traders + option flow. use this correction to go long. This is still one the earliest parts of the whole AI buildout, I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here. Again the hype built into Neoclouds are because of forward revenue growth (fundamentals), while the hype into Quantum/some drone companies, etc. are based around promises. It's a perfect time to scale up longs from companies with INSANE FORWARD REVENUE GROWTH (which will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps) not just industry narrative/speculation like Quantum.
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TSM财报超预期,作为AI核心受益,股价看涨至450美元以上。
$TSM 财报大爆,符合预期。它们是整个 Neocloud 交易和 AI 建设的核心。 鉴于 46% 的每股收益 (EPS) 同比增长(利润率扩张)和 37% 的营收同比增长,$TSM 轻松突破 $450+。(不过由于期权流向,短期可能会有些波动) ✅ 营收 $322.7 亿(预期 $316.1 亿) ✅ EPS: $2.84(预期 $2.63) 前瞻指引: ✅ 前瞻营收:$322 亿–$334 亿(预期 $320 亿) ✅ 毛利率:59–61% 作为大盘股,增长和利润令人惊叹。
英文原文
$TSM blowout earnings as expected. They’re the center of the whole Neocloud trade and AI Buildout. TSM is easily going to $450+ with 46% EPS y/y (expanding margins) and 37% revenue growth y/y. (Short term might be a little volatile because of option flow though) ✅ Revenue $32.27B (Est. $31.61B) ✅ EPS: $2.84 (Est. $2.63) Guidance: ✅ Forward Rev: $32.2B–$33.4B (Est. $32.0B) ✅ Gross Margin: 59–61% Amazing growth and profit as a mega cap.
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博主回顾1月份进行的轻度虚值期权交易操作。
@LibertadEterno 1月份做了3个月到期、轻度虚值(out of the money)的期权。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Did 3 months out in Jan slightly otm
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博主认为NBIS无利空下跌是买入机会,并在122.9美元附近加仓看涨期权。
没有新闻的下跌总是 $NBIS 的礼物。 (在约 $122.9 处加仓了看涨期权) https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
英文原文
No news dips are always a nice gift $NBIS. (Added calls at~$122.9) https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
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核能股涨势延续,受美军基地核电计划利好推动。
接着……投机性核反应堆股票的涨势仍在继续 $NKLR $OKLO $SMR 华尔街日报:“美军将使用核反应堆为基地供电” https://t.co/COEteFJUeE
英文原文
and... the speculative nuclear reactor stock run continues $NKLR $OKLO $SMR WSJ: "US Army to Power Bases with Nuclear Reactors" https://t.co/COEteFJUeE
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建议直接持有$WYFI,避免ETH控股公司的稀释风险。
@Rainier_hs 一个值得吸取的教训是,公司经常以低于净资产价值(NAV)的价格交易。而且,鉴于这是一家以太坊(ETH)控股公司,且为了非高性能计算(HPC)目的进行稀释,我宁愿直接持有 $WYFI。
英文原文
@Rainier_hs A good lesson to learn is that companies trade under NAV all the time. And especially since it's an ETH holding company that dilutes for non HPC purposes, would rather just get direct exposure to $WYFI.