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白宫与科技巨头共同背书，推动英特尔成功。
@Crypto_fox7 没错。并不是每天都有像 $INTC 这样得到白宫背书的公司。政府和所有像 $NVDA 和 $APPL 这样的“七巨头”公司都在推动英特尔取得成功。
英文原文
@Crypto_fox7 Yep. Not every day do you get a company backstopped by the White House like $INTC. Both the government and all the Mag7 companies like $NVDA and $APPL are just pushing for Intel to succeed.
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提醒关注软银曾减持英伟达的历史先例。
@Whopzbet 请记住，软银(SoftBank)在2019年持有$NVDA 4.9%的股份，随后已退出。
英文原文
@Whopzbet Just keep in mind SoftBank owned 4.9% of $NVDA in 2019 and exited.
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作者看好$VPG为人形机器人拐点标的，类比$SNDK/$SMCI早期，已建仓。
看来市场开始关注 $VPG 了。 这是我机器人板块的首选股。 它让我想起当前内存行情启动前 $30 的 $SNDK，最终涨至 $470。 或者 AI 建设行情启动前 $1.3 的 $SMCI，最终涨至 $100。 这可能是人形机器人行业的拐点。 https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
英文原文
Looks like markets are starting to find out about $VPG. This is my top robotics sector stock. And reminds me of $SNDK at $30 before current memory rally to $470. Or $SMCI at $1.3 before the AI buildout rally to $100. This may be the inflection point for robotics humanoids. https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
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AXTI波动属正常现象，常现30%随机涨跌。
@taKong2024 没什么特别的，$AXTI 只是正常的波动性，因为它经常出现随机的30%涨跌幅。
英文原文
@taKong2024 Nothing, it’s just normal volatility with $AXTI since it has random 30% movements
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看好Intel受白宫政策补贴及巨头背书，具高非对称性回报潜力。
永远不要做空白宫。 $INTC 可能是半导体领域目前最具非对称性（asymmetrical）的多头机会之一。https://t.co/ow1BO48XO4 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： $INTC 基本上就是半导体界的 $RKLB 之于 SpaceX，是我最大的持仓之一。 众所周知，随着 Nvidia 到 Apple 等巨头背书，它终将赶上 $TSM，成为美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。 这只是时间问题。 在 $2340 亿市值（$TSM 为 $1.5 万亿）下，仅凭等待就有约 7 倍回报。 无论是 2 年还是 10 年，我坚信 Intel 是市场中罕见的机会，你可以投资白宫以及无限印钞机补贴的烧钱晶圆厂（foundry）开发。 这不是赢家通吃，半导体 TAM（总可寻址市场）将持续增长，$TSM 是很好的多头，但当 Intel 产能可用时，从 Google 到 Nvidia 的美国超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）将迫于压力使用 Intel。 美国不会让 Intel 失败，这是基于美国政策的高确信度（high conviction）多头。
英文原文
Never bet against the White House. $INTC is probably one of the most asymmetrical longs in the semi space right now. https://t.co/ow1BO48XO4
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警告有毒融资结构，ATM增发稀释散户价值。
这就是自动再融资(ATM)的运作方式。股价下跌是因为散户投资者意识到，这家公司刚刚通过向散户发行相当于市值65%的股票来出售，导致他们的持仓价值被稀释殆尽，从而提前反应了这3亿美元(ATM)的发行。甚至去年董事会还投票决定增发并出售24%的流通盘作为“奖金”。这仅仅是对散户而言有毒的融资结构的警告。
英文原文
This is how ATMs work. The drop was anticipation of the $300m ATM from retail investors realizing that their value got wiped out from the company that just printed 65% of the marketcap to sell on them. Even last year board voted for 24% of float to be printed -> sold as a bonus. This is just a warning about the toxic financing structure for retail.
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澄清BKKT跌幅时区差异，指出散户面临新股增发抛压。
是的，你说得对，$BKKT 较昨日下跌了 25%，这反映了 $HOOD 的时区差异。话虽如此，但这并不改变帖子的核心观点。人们可以自由行事，这里只是提供他们历史行为的信息。散户可以自由买入刚刚增发并将在公开市场抛售的 3 亿美元新股。这种事年年都在发生。
英文原文
Yes you’re right $BKKT is down 25% from yesterday, this is timezone difference which $HOOD is reflecting. That being said nothing about point of the post changes. People are free to do whatever they want, this is just information about their history. Retail are free to buy into $300m of new shares that just got printed + will be sold onto the open market. This happens year after year.
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解释股价因大额ATM增发稀释而机械性下跌。
这里有很多误解，但我还是会回复。股价下跌是因为有一笔3亿美元的可转债(ATM)发行。这是一个有趣的教训：如果你发行的新股超过现有市值的65%以上，并在公开市场上向现有的散户套牢者出售价值3亿美元的新股，股价在机械上就会下跌。
英文原文
There’s a lot of delusion here but I’ll reply. It’s down because there’s a $300 million ATM. Here’s a fun lesson, if you print more than 65%+ of an existing marketcap and sell $300m worth of new stock on the open market on existing retail bagholders, the stock mechanically drops.
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对比负责任与发布虚假内幕信息的网红博主
谢谢，我对那位因基于公开信息构建其万亿美元级语言AI鸟类（$DUOL）投资逻辑并在股价下跌时承担责任、导致组合亏损60%的$DUOL/$HIMS/$PLTR网红博主没有意见。相比之下，还有其他人发布关于“内幕消息”显示需求过大的实质性虚假/不可验证声明，然后在股价崩盘后删除帖子。
英文原文
Thanks I have no issue with that $DUOL / $HIMS / $PLTR influencer who lost 60% of his portfolio because at least he’s basing his $1T+ language AI bird thesis off pubic information and taking accountability when the stock dropped. Then there’s others who just post materially false / unverifiable statements about too much demand from “insider info” then deletes their posts after the stock crashes
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批评散户盲目听信谣言导致亏损且发帖者无责。
如果人们在明知事实信息带来的风险后股价仍下跌，那只是正常的市场风险。但我感到愤怒的是，许多人因为盲目追随诸如“听内部人士说需求巨大，价格跟不上”这类无法验证的言论，而损失了大部分辛苦赚来的收入或净资产。更糟糕的是，当股价崩盘后他们删除帖子，却无需承担任何责任。
英文原文
If people knowingly knew the risks from factual information and then the stock dropped, that‘s just normal market risks. But I’m upset people lost a large part of their hard earned income or net worth because they blindly followed unverifiable statements along the lines of “hearing about way too much demand from insiders, price can’t keep up”. And then there’s zero accountability when they delete the posts after it crashes.
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批评$BKKT相关人士删帖行为，质疑其留在$IREN董事会的合理性。
这家伙在$BKKT股价因基于虚假信息的无休止吹嘘而暴跌后，删除了他所有的帖子。 我完全不明白@danroberts0101为什么还让他留在$IREN的董事会，这看起来太糟糕了。 信息发现和吹嘘是有区别的。 声称听到内部人士谈论无法应对的过度需求等无法验证的言论 -> 股价上涨。然后在FOMO（错失恐惧症）后股价暴跌时删除帖子，这简直大错特错。
英文原文
The guy deleted all his posts after $BKKT stock crashed after the incessant shill from made up information. I have zero clue why @danroberts0101 keeps him on $IREN’s board since it’s a terrible look. There’s a difference between information discovery and shilling. Saying made up unverifiable statements about hearing insider talk about too much demand they can’t keep up -> stock rallies. Then deleting the posts after it crashes post fomo is just so wrong.
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BKKT因ATM增发暴跌，警示散户警惕有毒融资结构。
$BKKT 盘前下跌 -23.87%，原因是新一轮 $300M 的自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释。在我看来，这是整个市场中表现最糟糕的公司之一。我为那些在 $45 时跟随某位网红(influencer)买入的散户感到难过，因为他们的投资组合现在已亏损超过 64%。这是一个无尽的循环：新闻引发的错失恐惧(FOMO) -> ATM/大规模稀释，这只会伤害散户。以下是 $BKKT 试图不断掩盖的历史：2024年2月：通过注册直接发行(registered direct offering)发行约 140 万股 + 认股权证。2025年7月：在股价约 $24 时，通过 $75M 的公开发行又发行约 675 万股 + 预融资认股权证(pre-funded warrants)，但以约 $10（60%+折扣）的价格卖给机构。9月：Mike Alfred 加入 -> 他开始每天发布关于该股的帖子。管理层在股价上涨后试图向高管发行 24% 的稀释性奖励以进行套现。今天：当市值仅为 $500m 时，$300 Million 的 ATM 被倾倒在公开市场上，由散户接盘。$BKKT 是我见过的最大的散户资本毁灭公司之一。股票本应是人人受益的正和博弈，但这看起来只是从散户口袋到高管的价值转移。网红推广后 -> ATM 或高管授予稀释。我没有任何持仓，但作为旁观者：这是为什么你应该对融资结构完全有毒的公司进行独立研究(Do Your Own Research)的完美例子。
英文原文
$BKKT is down -23.87% premarket after a new $300M ATM dilution. In my opinion, this is one of the worst companies in the entire market. I feel sorry for people who followed a certain influencer at $45 since retail portfolios are now wiped over 64%. There’s an endless cycle of news fomo -> ATM/massive dilution that only harms retail. This is the history $BKKT endlessly tries to hide: Feb 2024: Issued ~1.4M shares + warrants in a registered direct offering. Jul 2025: Issued another ~6.75M shares + pre-funded warrants in a $75M public offering, when the stock was trading around $24, but sold them to institutions at ~$10 (60%+ discount). September: Mike Alfred joins -> he starts posting about the stock every day. Management after rally tries to issue 24% dilution awards to executives to sell Today: $300 Million ATM dumped in the public market on retail, when MC is only $500m $BKKT so far is of the biggest retail capital destruction companies I’ve seen. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits, but this just looks like a value transfer from retail pockets to executives. After influencer promotion -> ATM or executive grant dilution I have zero positions but as a spectator: This is the perfect example of why you should do your own research into companies that have completely toxic financing structures
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看好$VPG作为特斯拉机器人供应链中的优质利基标的。
@leavego8102 很高兴你现在知道了 $VPG！在特斯拉 Optimus 概念股中，它是西方机器人供应链中真正优质的利基(niche)标的。大家都专注于 AI，而太空、机器人、无人机供应链方面大家关注还不多，所以我认为这里才是真正的机会。
英文原文
@leavego8102 $VPG 를 이제라도 알게 되셔서 다행이네요! 테슬라 옵티머스 수혜주 중 서구 로봇 공급망 쪽에서는 정말 알짜배기 니치 종목이거든요. 다들 AI에만 몰두하느라 우주나 로봇, 드론 공급망 쪽은 아직 많이들 안 보는데, 그래서 저는 여기가 진짜 기회라고 생각해요
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解析特斯拉机器人供应链瓶颈，强调寻找早期Alpha而非跟风。
我通常不会回复这种别有用心的诱导性问题，但我正在发布关于与特斯拉Optimus机器人相关的机器人供应链股票的信息综合。不幸的是，我试图发现阿尔法（Alpha），以便在早期找到下一个从$30涨到$453的$SNDK，而不是像$SOFI、$ASTS、$TSLA那样对已知的金融科技主题进行多头喊单以寻求确认偏误（Confirmation Bias）。人们似乎真的很讨厌当信息被证明方向正确，且像$OSS这样的公司获得60%以上的重估（Re-rated）时。如果信息错误，该公司第二天就会崩盘，而不是像$LPTH那样不断上涨。没人知道市场如何对信息进行定价，它可能是对的也可能是错的。而且我无法控制扫描我帖子的高频交易（HFT）算法。话虽如此，$VPG当天收盘持平。这是一个与机器人量产挂钩的多头头寸，Citron等几家机构去年已经入场。考虑到机器人行业的拐点，它现在只是处于雷达之下。
英文原文
I normally don’t reply to disingenuous leading questions like this but I’m posting information synthesis on robotic supply chain stocks linked to Tesla Optimus. Unfortunately I try and discover alpha to find the next $30->$453 $SNDK at the start rather than bull posting the same known $SOFI, $ASTS, $TSLA finx theme for confirmation bias. And people really seem to dislike when the information turns out to be directionally right and companies like $OSS get re-rated 60%+. If it wasn’t, the company would crash the next day instead of constantly going up like $LPTH Nobody knows how markets price in the information, it could be right or wrong. And I have no control what HFT algorithms do that scan my posts. That being said $VPG ended the day flat. This is a long position tethered to humanoid ramp that several institution like Citron already entered last year. It’s just under the radar now considering the inflection point for robotics.
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博主主张公开免费分享研究，旨在减少散户与机构间的信息不对称。
没问题！我只是喜欢公开分享我的投资论点，而不是通过 Substack 等付费订阅来收费（当然，我并不反对那些这样做的人）。 股市是正和博弈，如果信息方向正确，每个人都能受益。 市场（以及很可能包括机构）最终会发现这类瓶颈或供应链公司。我个人喜欢公开免费地分享我找到的任何超额收益(alpha)或研究成果，以减少散户与机构之间的信息不对称。
英文原文
No problem! I just like to share my thesis publicly rather than charging for it behind substacks (no issue for people that do though). Stocks are positive sum where everyone benefits if information is directionally correct. Markets (and likely institutions) would discover these types of bottlenecks or supply chain companies eventually. I just personally like distributing any alpha or research I find publicly and free to reduce the information asymmetry between retail and institutions.
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，具高BOM占比与非对称收益潜力。
$VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人量产（Humanoid ramp）最具非对称性敞口的标的，尤其是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司： - 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单（BOM）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆·马斯克在 2027 年实现德州超级工厂年产 1000 万台的目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的产量预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人量产的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人量产，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门利润率约为“55% 左右”。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 55% 利润率对应 85 亿美元收入： - 20 倍市盈率（P/E）将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很荒谬，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉升前（$3 -> $113）或 $SNDK 的拉升（$30 -> $453）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆（Operating Leverage）才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人量产条件成熟，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线映射研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入增长可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年起就在使用 $VPG 并开始扩大规模。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 量产挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个人形机器人规模化博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人量产的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司可能占据每个部署机器人高比例的 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立这个多头信念的。
英文原文
$VPG is one of the least known robotic supply chain stocks. However, it's likely the single best asymmetrical exposure to robotics Humanoid ramp for - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI as this $580m company makes: est. ~3-9% BOM cost of every humanoid. $8.5B revenue may come from $TSLA alone ($850 midpoint * 10M) every year if Elon hits his 10M Giga Texas production target in 2027. This is based on $VPG CEO's quote on value capture of $500–$1,200 per robot ($850 midpoint) and Elon's ambitious projections on production targets. Again this math is extremely speculative, but Elon quotes $20-30k/humanoid at scale and you can derive an est. ~3%-9%+ of BOM from each Tesla Robot produced (if this does ever happen) for $VPG. If you consider Elon Musk saying "About 80% of Tesla's Value Could Eventually Come From Optimus Robots": This looks like great exposure for robotics ramp for such a small company that's critical in the robotics supply chain. What I believe markets also missed is factoring in low end corporate margins to for blended margin estimates: ~40% However, the humanoid-specific gross margin at scale is projected to be 50% to 55% (and with current robotics ramp, blended margins would likely increase significantly). Their integrated actuator/sensor Modules (sensor + housing + electronics) is likely directly tethered to humanoid exposure, (measurement systems segment which houses these complex assemblies), which the CEO said on their earnings call achieves margins of "55% or so". In a bull case scenario where Elon hits his 10M humanoid projections in 2028 (single customer, not including Figure, OpenAI, or other potential customers) 55% margin off $8.5B revenue at : - 20x P/E would be $47.6 Billion -30x P/E $83.3 Billion from $580m MC. It sounds stupid, but when I look at $SMCI pre-server rack rally ($3 -> $113) or $SNDK's rally ($30 -> $453), it looks possible. Again this is speculative best case possible scenario, but the operating leverage is the real story here. So I think it's likely for this small $580m company to be strongly re-rated if the stars align for robotics ramp. Now downside risk: - The other humanoid provider is likely to be Figure due to timeline mapping. But this is not confirmed. (not taking credit for either mapping research, they were done by other analysts). These figures are hypothetical modeling based on third-party estimates like Citron, gross margins might be compressed if there's competitors or revenue ramp might not play out. - $TSLA has likely been using $VPG since 2022 and is starting to ramp up. There is always a risk they figure out the patented technology/materials in-house and drop a customer. This bull-case scenario is tethered to Tesla Optimus ramp and there's always a risk they get dropped that markets might price in. - Again this is a humanoid scale play. If Elon's projections are too ambitious and face delays, this might be stagnant like 2025 (which was still ~85% return). But TLDR: My opinion was that institutional analysts like Citron were way too early. However, given OpenAI's push into robotics last week: I believe 2026 to be the inflection point for robotics and $VPG likely captures the best exposure to Tesla and Humanoid robotics ramp. Especially when a small company likely has high % BOM cost of each robot deployed and high gross margins: I've taken long positions to see where this ends up. Of course DYOR on this, I just wanted to share how I came to develop my own conviction on this long.
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赞同关于$VPG的论点，看好机器人领域扩张带来的机遇。
@ThematicTrader 关于 $VPG 的论点很棒！完全同意，机器人领域的扩张带来了巨大的机遇。
英文原文
@ThematicTrader Great thesis on $VPG! Fully agree, ramp up on robotics presents an incredibly opportunity
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推荐研究 $VLN，认为其因现金储备下行风险低且仍被低估。
关于 $VLN 的帖子很棒！我建议每个人都对这类公司进行独立研究。其资产与市值的比率已不再是接近 1:1，但我个人感觉它仍然被严重低估，且由于现金储备充足，下行风险较低。让我们看看下一次财报后市场如何对其定价。
英文原文
Great post on $VLN! I’d recommend everyone do their own research on companies like this. It’s no longer close to 1:1 on assets/MC but personal my feeling was that it’s still deeply misvalued, with low downside risk due to cash balance. We’ll see how things get priced in after their next earnings.
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VPG被视为机器人领域的Lite，因市场未聚焦该供应链而鲜为人知。
@StockStormX 是的，$VPG 之于机器人/$TSLA Optimus 的量产爬坡，就像 $LITE 之于 Google TPU。由于市场尚未聚焦于机器人供应链，它并不广为人知。
英文原文
@StockStormX Yeah $VPG is like the $LITE (Google TPU) for robotics/ $TSLA Optimus ramp up. Not very well known since markets haven't focused on robotics supply chains yet
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作者认为$AVAV因误读合同变更而遭错杀，已逆势加仓。
我的意思是，这相当于国防领域的$CRDO亚马逊连线事件。看看$AVAV： -> 将合同从研发型重新谈判为长期批量合同。 -> 媒体：“噢，不，那个花哨的Scar项目被暂停了” -> 毫无理由地暴跌17%。 当然由你决定，我个人认为这次抛售很愚蠢，所以加仓了。
英文原文
I mean this is the $CRDO Amazon wire incident equivalent. But in the Defense sector. Be $AVAV: -> Renegotiates contract from R&D type to long term volume contract. -> Media: "Oh no the fancy Scar program got halted" -> Sells off 17% for no reason. up to you though, I personally added since I thought this selloff was stupid.
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$AVAV获14亿合同，转固定价格模式被市场误解
@victor_privin $AVAV 在过去4个月中获得了14亿美元以上的合同。这是一次合同重新谈判（可能长期更有利）。其他交易安排(OTA)协议很多时候是为了原型设计和研发。转向固定价格(FFP)合同 = 锁定批量价格。完全被误解了
英文原文
@victor_privin $AVAV secured $1.4B+ in contracts in the past 4 months. This is a contract renegotiation (possibly better long term). OTA agreements a lot of times is for prototyping and R&D. Moving to an FFP contract = locking in price for volume. Completely misunderstood
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探讨国防资金与近期大额军购合同对标的的潜在影响。
@diyinvestguy 也许是拟议的1.5万亿美元国防部(DoD)资金，加上委内瑞拉突袭行动带来的顺风以及其他全球冲突。或者，也许是上个月8.74亿美元的综合不定量采购合同(IDIQ)交易，10月份5亿美元无人机(UAS)导弹交易，12月份4200万美元远程火箭炮(LRR)项目交易，以及总计超过14亿美元的更多交易？
英文原文
@diyinvestguy Perhaps the $1.5T proposed DoD funding + tailwinds from Venezuela raid + other global conflicts. Or maybe the $874m idiq deal last month, a $500m uas missile deal in October, another $42m LRR program deal in December, and more totaling $1.4B+?
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澄清SCAR项目未取消，因误读导致股价大跌，博主趁机加仓$AVAV。
我在$AVAV下跌16%时加仓了。 市场对SCAR项目新闻做出了错误反应。 - 市场认为SCAR项目被取消，因此抛售超15%。 - 事实并非如此。在8-K监管文件中，他们表示将“继续为SCAR项目提供能力和产品”。 - 这是合同重新谈判，并非取消。 此外，这只是一份1.75亿美元的远期营收合同。$AVAV的皇冠明珠是通过Replicator计划部署的Switchblade无人机。 所以我个人今天抄底买入。
英文原文
I’ve added to my $AVAV positions on the 16% dip. Markets made a mistake with regarding the Scar program news. - Markets thought SCAR program was canceled hence 15%+ selloff. - It’s not. In the 8-K regulatory filings they said they would “continue providing capabilities and products for the SCAR program.” - This was contract re-negotiation. Not cancelled. Also this was a small $175m fw revenue contract. $AVAV crown jewel is Switchblade via Replicator So I personally ended up buying the dip today.
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建议逢低买入AVAV，认为市场对其合同重谈的恐慌被夸大。
@__visionxry__ 恕我直言，$AVAV 在下跌 15% 后是极佳的逢低买入机会。其主要收入来自价值超 10 亿美元的“弹簧刀”复制器（Switchblade Replicator）项目。如果市场因一份正在重新谈判的 1.75 亿美元合同而恐慌，那纯粹是在戏弄投资者。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IMO $AVAV is a great dip buy on the 15% drop. Main revenue is $1B+ switchblade replicator. Markets are trolling if they’re panicking over a $175m contract that’s getting renegotiated.
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博主澄清持仓策略：长线逻辑持股一年，短线如CRDO灵活交易。
@realstockfox 我目前实际上持有33个不同的头寸。如果你看过我的月度更新，我会追踪大量股票。但对于基于投资逻辑（Thesis）的帖子，我通常持有长达一年，因为它们是长线头寸。像 $CRDO 这类则是短期交易。
英文原文
@realstockfox I actually have 33 different positions right now. If you see my monthly updates, I track A TON of stocks. But with the thesis-type posts, I usually hold for a year since they're long positions. Stuff like $CRDO were short term. https://t.co/QxAketGwML
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作者因SSYS看错，转向寻找与Optimus产量强相关的VPG机会。
我在 $SSYS 关于原型机/量产爬坡的论点上搞砸了，所以我想要一个与机器人产量直接挂钩、且每台机器人能贡献高比例营收的机器人概念股。 这属于推测，但考虑到 $VPG 的体量，特斯拉 Optimus 每台机器人中约 3-8% 的 BOM（物料清单）价值对他们来说是不可思议的。
英文原文
I messed up on my $SSYS thesis regarding prototyping/ramp-up, so I wanted a robotics play directly tethered to the amount of robots produced with high % revenue for each robot. This is speculation but an est. 3-8% ~BOM value for each Tesla Optimus is incredible for $VPG given how small they are.
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博主回应批评改在盘中发文，并展示其过往论点均获正收益。
感谢大家的指正。很多人私信我，认为在盘后或隔夜发布投资论点(Thesis)会因流动性不足而加剧市场波动。因此，我改为在交易时段发布我的思考过程。我无法控制市场如何为信息发现定价，也无法控制我分享观点后的影响。自发布以来，$AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 等大多数股票上涨了 70% 且仍在上涨。像 $VLH 或 $LPTH 这样的股票也上涨了约 20-30%。我认为到目前为止，还没有任何一个论点在长期来看是亏损的。
英文原文
Thanks for calling me out on that. A lot of people messaged me privately that posting a thesis during after-hours/overnight would make things a lot worse due to lack of liquidity. So I end up posting my thought process during market hours instead. I have no control over how markets price in information discovery or me sharing my perspective on things. Most stocks from $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS are up 70% since I posted and still keep going up. Stuff like $VLH or $LPTH are up roughly 20-30%. I don't think there's been a single thesis that's been red over time so far.
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VPG被低估机器人拐点，营收增长潜力大，机构或仅时机过早。
许多人基于同比(Y/Y)营收对 $VPG 进行建模，但低估了机器人领域的拐点。从当前水平实现25亿至40亿美元的营收增长，提供了相当高的上行空间和极佳的机器人领域增长敞口。但这只股票已被机构广泛熟知，我认为Citron Research等机构可能只是时机把握有误，因为他们提前了数月甚至数年。
英文原文
A lot of people model $VPG based on Y/Y revenue, but underestimate inflection point for robotics. $2.5-$4B revenue ramp from current levels presents pretty high upside and great exposure to robotics ramp. But it's already a pretty well known stock by institutions, I think Citron and others likely just got timing off since they were months or years ahead of time.
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作者解释为何逆势做多VPG以提前布局机器人领域。
@alecolace 如果你对 $VPG 持看跌观点，那确实合理！无人机领域确实比机器人领域有更多的催化剂，但我个人想通过 $VPG 提前布局机器人领域的增长。再次强调，这只是我个人的观点，我不指望很多人会同意。
英文原文
@alecolace That's fair if you're bearish on $VPG! Drone sector has a lot more catalysts than robotics for sure, but thought I'd personally frontrun the robotics ramp with $VPG. Again these are just my own personal opinions, I don't expect a lot of people to agree.
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建仓$VPG，看好其作为$TSLA Optimus核心供应商的高BOM占比及不对称收益。
我已建立 $VPG（市值5.73亿美元）的头寸。 这是我未来在机器人领域的主要敞口，与 $TSLA Optimus 紧密挂钩。 市场完全忽视了这一机器人板块的投资机会： 对于每一台部署的特斯拉 Optimus，$VPG 很可能占据极高的物料清单(BOM)份额。 VPG 可能是特斯拉 Optimus 量产爬坡的主要供应商，这已是公开的秘密。 这一发现最早由 Citron Research 提出（我不居功）。 2025年4月，Citron Research 发布报告，称 VPG 为“隐藏的特斯拉 Optimus 概念股”。 他们指出，VPG 在2023年11月宣布与一家人形机器人开发商达成“重大设计胜利”，就在特斯拉于2023年12月发布 Optimus Gen 2 之前。 Citron：“证据确凿：VPG 不仅向特斯拉 Optimus 供货，还预计从此次扩产中获得巨额收入，但由于保密协议，这部分收入目前对市场不可见。” 我在2025/2026年后期与多家卖方/买方分析师交叉验证了关于 VPG 的信息： 许多来自 Signia Capital 的人士提到 $VPG：“最显著的应用将是特斯拉的 Optimus 机器人，该机器人于2022年原型化，目标在2026年投产”。 然而，由于2023-2025年原型机阶段 Optimus 及其他机器人的量产爬坡并不存在，这一点被完全遗忘了。 然而，鉴于彭博社报道 OpenAI 上周推动机器人领域发展： 我预计机器人行业今年将触及拐点。 该公司基本面已经非常扎实： - 营收7970万美元（同比增长5.3%，但预计因机器人行业而指数级增长） - 毛利率40.5% - 净现金约6500万美元（现金8600万，债务2000万） $VPG 在块状金属箔(Bulk Metal Foil)材料科学/专利方面拥有护城河，引入了 Z-Foil 技术，并实现了垂直整合。虽然我不能说完全理解所有细节，但这正是 $TSLA 与 Vishay 合作进行 Optimus 迭代原型开发和规模化的原因。 关于 BOM： 有一些 BOM 估算如下： 腿部/运动系统：约21,300美元（占成本38%）：集中在高扭矩执行器。 核心稳定性：约15,600美元（28%）：结构性躯干和肩部机构。 灵巧手：约9,500美元（17%）：执行器和 VPG 式传感器。 计算/AI：约2,100美元（4%）：双 FSD 芯片和8摄像头阵列。 但总体而言，我们可以估算每台机器人的价值中约有3-8%归 $VPG 所有，因为 Shoshani 明确表示 VPG 预计每台机器人在ERs中能获得500至1,200美元的收入。 Elon 喜欢吹嘘大数字，但如果按字面意思理解“德州超级工厂年产1000万台的目标” 1000万台机器人/年 × 750美元/台 = VPG 年营收75亿美元。 考虑到 $VPG 是一家目前处于机器人供应链深处的5.74亿美元小市值公司，鉴于其不对称的上行空间，我建立了多头头寸： - 与 $TSLA Optimus 供应链的高度相关性概率高 - 每台部署机器人的 BOM 占比高 - 资产负债表非常干净，这很罕见。 请自行研究，这只是我建立多头的个人思考过程。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m). This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus. Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play: For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each. It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp. This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this). In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play." They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023. Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality" I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG: Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026". However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase. However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg: I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year. This company is extremely solid fundamentally already: - $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector) - 40.5% Gross Margins - ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt) $VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay. As for BOM: There are BOM estimates like: Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators. Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms. Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors. Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array. But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs. Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas" 10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG. Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside - of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains - high BOM of each robot deployed. - very clean balance sheet, which is rare. Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.