全部推文
共 6436 条 · 第 161 / 215 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
AXTI若禁运将阻碍AI基建，超大规模云服务商短期仍依赖其供应。
@NEgleston @jaysyoon 如果 $AXTI 无法向美国出口，那么关于人工智能基础设施建设（AI buildout）就有更严重的问题需要担忧。这对美国是一个巨大的威胁，这就是为什么超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）正在设计绕过该限制的方案（这需要3年时间），在此期间他们仍然处于依赖状态。
英文原文
@NEgleston @jaysyoon If $AXTI is not able to export to US, then there are bigger problems to worry about regarding the AI buildout It's a huge threat to America which is why hyperscalers are engineering around it (which would take 3 years), in the meantime they're dependent https://t.co/Vpq5KQdm13
-
AXTI因光子学垄断地位及出口管制影响，估值远低于同行，增长空间巨大。
恕我直言，$AXTI 才刚刚起步。这仅仅是日本供应链遭受出口管制重击后，产能爬坡的开始。 这是西方部署光子学 AI 的单点故障环节，且处于垄断地位，相关市场价值为 13 亿美元。 你看那些随机的量子计算和能源公司估值都超过 100 亿美元了。我认为它还有很大的增长空间。
英文原文
$AXTI is just getting started imo. This is only beginning the ramp up after the export control nuke on Japan's supply chains. This is single point of failure and a monopoly for Western's AI deployment using photonics valued at $1.3B. You have random quantum and energy companies are valued at $10B+. I think there's room to grow.
-
小盘股如OSS和AVA因规模限制无法进行股票回购。
@sjahmed08 对于较小的参与者来说，这并不重要。像 $OSS 或 $AVA 这样的公司，鉴于其规模，并没有能力进行股票回购。
英文原文
@sjahmed08 It's not material for smaller players. Players like $OSS or $AVA aren't in positions to do share buybacks given their size.
-
铟价分化及日本出口管制使AXTI成AI光子学关键瓶颈，估值被低估。
这只是我个人的观点。自上次财报电话会议以来，许多情况已发生变化： 1. 7纳米铟(Indium)原料价格在SMM开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI向西方出口，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间出现分化。 12月19日：Asian Metal报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实截至周末，定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响磷化铟(InP)衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模数据中心/西方供应链已为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长(EML)产能后，他们面临产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模数据中心部署放缓，可能源于产能问题。 -> 他们将向上游锁定材料（此前作为电信大宗商品极其便宜），然后这变成类似高带宽内存(HBM)的博弈论分配战。但除了$AXTI，你几乎找不到其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数产能，但实际根本不够。 3. 最大变化是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子学AI扩张中，对单一公司故障点价值的评估。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会崩溃。例如，CEO称在出口管制（及其1亿美元融资扩产）之前，他们占InP供应链的40%。 这个整个AI供应链的巨大瓶颈市值仅为13亿美元，而一些无实质影响的量子公司市值却超100亿美元。 很难对瓶颈进行建模，因为数亿总可寻址市场(TAM)突然用于每个AI部署，且无人知晓衬底或原料价格去向。
英文原文
So this is just my perspective on this. Lot of things have changed since the last earnings call, 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's hard to model bottlenecks where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.
-
尽管微软下调预期，仍看好AAOI长期必然性，建议等待。
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI 与 $MSFT Maia 项目深度绑定，而微软刚刚大幅下调了预期（这就是为什么 $MRVL 今天跌了 4%）。 尽管如此，我依然非常看好它，因为这更多是必然趋势，只是存在执行层面的不确定性，只需等待一两年即可。
英文原文
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI is heavily tethered to $MSFT Maia and they just heavily lowered estimates (hence why $MRVL went down 4% today). I still really like it regardless since it’s more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two.
-
作者对$OSS持观望态度，若项目落地，预计6个月内市值可达10亿美元。
@bigbull_0410 是的，$OSS 对我来说属于“观望”类别，我想看看能否从中获得 1000%+ 的回报。 说实话，如果该奖项（award）顺利落地，我不惊讶于看到它在 6 个月内达到 10 亿美元市值（Market Cap）。
英文原文
@bigbull_0410 Yeah $OSS is one of those wait and see for me to see if I get a 1000%+ out of this. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if I see this at $1B MC in 6 months if the award goes through.
-
作者澄清其推文旨在通过新颖分析测试论点，而非投资建议。
我的意思是，我关于 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 的大部分帖子都是基于公开信息的新型信息综合。所以，如果市场发现 AXT 是人工智能供应链的单点故障，导致其股价上涨 100%，这是合乎情理的。或者在这种情况下，市场不知道 $OSS 在委内瑞拉的参与。除此之外，我只是发布我的思考过程或新颖分析，以测试我的论点与市场反应。这不是建议，也不推荐他人跟随。
英文原文
I mean most of my posts from $AXTI and $AIRO are novel information synthesis based on public info. So makes sense if stuff like AXT goes up 100% once markets find out it’s the single point of failure for the AI supply chain. Or in this case markets didn’t know about $OSS involvement in Venezuela. That aside I’m just posting my own thought process or just novel analysis to test my thesis against the markets. Not advice or recommending others to follow along.
-
作者认为OSS相比KRKNF具有更高上涨空间，故选择前者。
@drakeondigital 我关注 $KRKNF 已有一段时间，确实挺看好它。但我个人觉得 $OSS 的上涨空间要大得多，这也是我选择 OSS 的原因。
英文原文
@drakeondigital I’ve known about $KRKNF for awhile and I do like it. But I personally think $OSS has a lot higher upside, which is why I chose OSS.
-
感谢提及，关注AXTI和AIRO走势，期待OSS后续表现。
@pepemoonboy 感谢提及，你的期权卖出挑战目前进展顺利！最近观察 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 确实很有趣。很好奇 $OSS 接下来会如何表现。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Appreciate the shoutout and looking good so far on your option selling challenge! It’s definitely been fun watching $AXTI and $AIRO recently. Curious how $OSS does next.
-
看好$OSS，因其获美军使用、高毛利且需求旺盛。
@LawnChairCap $OSS 令人极度兴奋，当我看到这家市值仅 1.55 亿美元的公司正在做的事情时，简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。它已被美国军方在委内瑞拉使用，毛利率达 45%，手握 4000 多万美元现金，需求超过产能，处于极度火热的赛道，天哪。
英文原文
@LawnChairCap $OSS is incredibly exciting and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw what they were doing at a $155m MC. Like already being used in Venezuela by US military, 45% gross margins with a $40m+ cash pile, demand exceeding capacity, extremely hot sector, jeez
-
AXTI和AIRO短期暴涨，深入研究后对OSS持看多态度。
@B38B37 观察 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 的走势真是令人捧腹，两者在一周左右的时间里都上涨了50%以上。 不过，在深入研究该公司，特别是委内瑞拉入侵事件及其受益者后，我对 $OSS 相当看好。
英文原文
@B38B37 $AXTI and $AIRO have been hilarious to watch both are up 50%+ in a week or so. I’m pretty bullish on $OSS though after looking into company, esp. Venezuelan invasion and beneficiaries.
-
建仓$OSS，认为其作为边缘AI国防承包商获实战验证，高毛利且被低估。
我建仓了 $OSS。 我通常不说这种话，但这只股票令人兴奋。 市场完全错过了这家市值1.55亿美元的无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇(USV)、边缘AI部署的美国国防部承包商。 他们尤其错过了 OSS 在委内瑞拉入侵行动中的参与，这给 $AVAV 等股票带来了溢价。 在我看来，这看起来像是一个“邪恶”的长线机会： 1. 4100万美元现金（预计）/ 1.55亿美元市值（下行风险低）。 2. 纯动能防御(Pure play Kinetic Defense)标的。 3. 供需比为 1:2.4（因需求旺盛而积压）。 4. 45%的毛利率。 主要兴趣点在于委内瑞拉作为其在美国军队中实际使用的证明： $OSS P-8 海神在委内瑞拉： - 飞行追踪数据证实，第40巡逻中队(VP-40)的 P-8A 海神飞机在突袭期间在委内瑞拉海岸附近，以监控委内瑞拉海军动向。 OSS 关联：2025年7月1日，OSS 宣布了一项500万美元的紧急订单，专门用于为 P-8A 海神交付“61台加固数据单元”。 SOCOM “抓捕小组”： - 抓捕领导层的突袭由美国特种作战司令部(USSOCOM)执行，具体使用了海上插入团队（可能是海豹突击队/SWCC）和第160特种作战航空团（直升机）。 OSS 关联：2025年5月29日，OSS 直接与 USSOCOM 签署了合作研发协议(CRADA)，为海洋环境制造边缘计算机。OSS 为潜入委内瑞拉海岸的隐形船只构建了战斗追踪服务器。 “幽灵舰队”封锁： - “南方长矛行动”目前正在使用无人水面艇（无人机船）封锁油轮。 OSS 关联：海军的“第59特遣队”（以及较新的第4舰队等效部队）在这些无人机上使用 $OSS Rigel 边缘超级计算机，因为它是少数能装入40英尺机器人船的小型AI服务器之一。 这字面意义上是委内瑞拉的实战验证。对于一家市值1.55亿美元的小公司而言。 在之前，每个人都把这家公司当作像 $SMCI 那样的大宗商品（包括我自己），但我完全错过了他们的国防垂直领域（在出售 Bressner 后现在是纯标的）拥有45.6%的毛利率。 直到我再次深入研究后，才意识到他们的另一个部门因为混合毛利率（仅转售国防装备）完全搞乱了毛利计算。 所以现在我们有一个： ~45%毛利率，估值1.55亿美元，拥有4100万美元现金，需求超出供应2.4倍的AI军事承包商。 去年晚些时候我做了一个分析，当时看起来 $OSS 是 Andruil 或 $PLTR 的供应商，并开始爬坡。 再次审视出售后的情况，45%的毛利率使他们进入极其卓越的领域（例如洛克希德·马丁，12-14%）或大宗商品卖家（例如 $SMCI，$DELL 8-14%）。 这是一个经过战争验证的专用防御AI纯标的，用于无人机群、幽灵舰队、USV等，具有极高的毛利率，市值1.55亿美元。 我发现这是一个令人兴奋的重新发现，所以我建仓了。
英文原文
I've initiated a position in $OSS. I usually never say this but, this one is exciting. Markets completely missed this 155M MC Drone Swarm, Ghost Fleet, USVs, Edge AI deploying US DoD contractor. And they especially missed OSS’s involvement in the Venezuela's invasion, that gave premiums to $AVAV and others. This looks like an unholy long to me: 1. $41M cash (pro forma ets.) / $155M MC (low downside risk). 2. Pure play Kinetic Defense 3. 1 : 2.4x supply/demand. (backlogged from high demand) 4. 45% gross margins. The main interest was Venezuela as proof they're actively being used in the US military: $OSS P-8 Poseidon in Venezuela: - Flight tracking data confirmed that P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Patrol Squadron 40 (VP-40) were off the coast of Venezuela during the raid to monitor Venezuelan naval movements. OSS Link: On July 1 2025, OSS announced a $5M urgent order specifically to deliver "61 Rugged Data Units" for the P-8A Poseidon. SOCOM "Capture Team": - The raid to capture leadership was executed by US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), specifically using maritime insertion teams (likely SEALs/SWCC) and the 160th SOAR (helicopters). OSS Link: On May 29, 2025, OSS signed a (CRADA) directly with USSOCOM to build edge computers for Maritime Environments. OSS built the battle-tracking servers for the stealth boats used to slip into the Venezuelan coast. "Ghost Fleet" Blockade: - "Operation Southern Spear" is currently using unmanned surface vessels (drone boats) to block oil tankers. OSS Link: The Navy's "Task Force 59" (and the newer 4th Fleet equivalent) uses the $OSS Rigel Edge Supercomputer for these drones because it is one of the few AI servers small enough to fit on a 40-foot robot boat. This is literally combat validation in Venezuela. Of a small $155M stock. Before everyone treated this company as a commodity like $SMCI (myself included), but I completely missed that their defense vertical (which is pure-play now after the Bressner sale) has 45.6% gross margins. Only after I looked into it again after did I realize their other division was completely messing up margin calculations because of blended margins (from just re-selling defense gear). So now we have a: ~45% margins, AI military contractor valued at $155M business with $41m cash, with demand outstripping supply 2.4 to 1. I did an analysis later last year, which looked like $OSS was a supplier for Andruil or $PLTR, and was beginning their ramp up. Looking at it again post-sale, the 45% margin puts them into extremely stellar territory (compared to eg. Lockheed Martin, 12-14%) or commodity sellers (eg. $SMCI, $DELL 8-14%) This is a specialized war-validated defense AI pure-play for drone swarms, ghost fleets, USVs, and others, with extremely high margins, at $155M MC. I've found this to be an exciting re-discovery, so I've taken a position.
-
CRDO为基于误传的波段交易，下跌或成做多良机
@LongInnovation $CRDO 对我来说不是一个大仓位。这更多是基于关于客户即将转向 $MRVL 的错误信息以及一些主题演讲的混乱情况而进行的波段交易。但这次下跌可能会为其他想做多的人提供一个有吸引力的入场点。
英文原文
@LongInnovation $CRDO is not a big position for me. More of a swing trade based off misinformation posted about customer about to $MRVL and some keynote shenanigans. But the drop might present an attractive entry point for others who want to go long.
-
作者对比了CRDO的抄底难度与SNDK/MU的持有策略，并提及AIRO反弹案例。
谢谢，不过 Credo 对我来说更多是个人交易标的。但当走势像“飞刀”时（$CRDO 上月以来下跌超 35%），真的很难抄底。相比之下，全仓转入 $SNDK 和 $MU 然后不动它要容易得多。像 $AIRO 这种看似“飞刀”的标的后来反弹了 48%，所以如果操作得当，抄底其实很赚钱。不过我们得看看我的解读是否正确，我很享受用市场来测试自己的理论。
英文原文
Thanks, Credo is personally more of a trade for me though. But it's really hard to time the bottoms when things look like a falling knife ( $CRDO down 35%+ since last month). Much easier to just full port it into $SNDK and $MU and just not touch it. Stuff like $AIRO looked like a falling knife too then recovered 48%, so bottom catching is quite profitable if done right. We'll see if my interpretation is correct though, I have a fun time testing my own theories against the markets.
-
@itsDanielWu 说得在理，我也看到整个行业都在向光子学(Photonics)转型，包括 $LITE 等公司。但在光子学产能爬坡方面，我有关于磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈的独立观点，因此我个人对实现规模化持更悲观的态度。
英文原文
@itsDanielWu That's fair, I see the entire industry moving to photonics as well with $LITE and others. But in regards to photonic ramp, I've had my own thesis on InP substrates bottlenecks, so I'm personally more bearish on getting this to scale https://t.co/d6eDk7K204
-
博主计划在当前价位买入CRDO，并通过光子学板块对冲风险。
如果我基于我的巫术技术分析图表进行交易，我会个人在 $CRDO 130美元水平（即当前价位）买入。上月财报后从210美元跌至130美元，尤其是受假新闻影响，这使得该价位成为一个有吸引力的入场点。Credo 可能会进一步下跌，但我目前通过光子学(Photonics)板块进行了很好的对冲。
英文原文
If I trade based off my voodoo TA charting, I'd be personally buying $CRDO at $130 level (which is around now). Dropping from $210 -> $130 post-earnings last month, especially from fake news, makes this an attractive entry. Credo could always drop further, but I'm hedged pretty well with photonics right now.
-
质疑MRVL AEC竞争力，看好CRDO增长，预期光学瓶颈将延长铜缆寿命。
我的意思是，$MRVL 自 2022 年以来难道没有宣布过四次左右像 Alaska A 这样的 AEC（有源铜缆）杀手吗？我把它当作 $AMD 宣称每一代发布最终都要击败 $NVDA 来看待。 $CRDO 的财报和预测一直在以惊人的速度增长，尽管 Marvell 会是严肃的竞争对手（但如果 Marvell 起飞，两者仍有共存空间）。 我认为光学是最大威胁，但我一直预期 $AXTI 的光学组件会出现巨大的光学瓶颈，因此超大规模云厂商很可能被迫延长铜缆的使用寿命。
英文原文
I mean hasn't $MRVL announced an AEC killer with Alaska A like 4+ different times now since 2022? I treat it like $AMD saying they'll finally beat $NVDA with each gen release. $CRDO's earnings + projections just keeps growing at insane rates, though Marvell would be a serious competitor (but room for both if Marvell takes off). I see optical as the biggest threat, but I've been expecting a huge optical bottleneck for opticals components w/ $AXTI, so hyperscalers will likely be forced into copper life extension.
-
澄清AMZN谣言，分析AXTI光学瓶颈及铜缆长期需求。
很多人误读了“无缆化”的评论，尽管主要下跌是由关于$AMZN的“color change”（色彩变化）谣言引起的。 你精准指出了$CRDO的看空逻辑，但这我们一直都知道。我的持仓观点较为微妙，因为我看到$AXTI等公司正在对规模化扩展所需的光学组件形成瓶颈。（尤其是昨天住友电工的西方供应链因出口管制而遭受重创，这 largely 是光学建设所必需的） 我们可能会看到对铜缆及铜缆寿命延长的长期需求，尽管Credo确实拥有光DSP垂直领域业务。
英文原文
Tons of people misinterpreted the "cableless comment", though the main drop was the $AMZN color change misinformation. So you've nailed the bear case for $CRDO, but we've always known this. My position is nuanced since I see $AXTI and others bottle necking optical components required for scale out. (especially now that the Western supply chain in Sumitomo got export control nuked yesterday, largely required for optical buildout) We'll likely see long tail demand for copper and copper life extension, although Credo does have optical dsp verticals.
-
澄清CES误导，认为$CRDO错杀，因内部线缆变更及光子学布局而加仓。
我在$CRDO下跌25.7%时加仓，利用了CES上的信息误导。 1. 最初的大幅下跌是因为投资者在$AMZN数据中心发现了橙色和蓝色线缆（暗示$CRDO失去客户）。 实际情况是亚马逊仅为内部物流要求更改颜色——由Mizuho的Vijay Rakesh证实。 2. CES 2026主题演讲——第二次下跌是因为黄仁勋提到Rubin NVL72机架的“无缆”设计。 “无缆”说法特指连接GPU与NVLink交换机的内部铜背板（盲插中板）。 $CRDO的主要产品是有源电缆(AEC)，用于机架外部连接服务器与网络交换机。Nvidia的“无缆”技术仅替换Credo未生产的内部部件。 黄仁勋确实提到了Spectrum-X以太网光子学，但$CRDO也在光子学领域运营，拥有“BlueBird”（光数字信号处理器）和“ZeroFlap”光模块。还有机架顶部连接，这是Credo的主营业务（也是未来2-3年能效最高的解决方案）。 正如我多次在$AXTI中指出的，人们对转向光子学存在更大担忧，但鉴于供应短缺，行业正走向混合模式（铜+光子学）。 总之，投资者只是不了解细微差别，并非故意散布虚假信息。 因此我个人加仓了$CRDO，因为其大部分市值因无关紧要且错误的消息被抹去。
英文原文
I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation. 1. Large drop initially was because investors spotted orange and blue cables in $AMZN DCs (implying $CRDO customer loss). All that happened was Amazon requested a color change for internal logistics. - confirmed by Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. 2. CES 2026 keynote - Second drop was Jensen Huang said "Cableless" design of Rubin NVL72 rack. The "cableless" claim refers specifically to the internal copper backplane (blind-mate midplane) that connects the GPUs to the NVLink switches within a single rack. $CRDO's main product is AEC, for outside of the racks that connect the entire server rack to the network switch. Nvidia's "Cableless" Tech only replaces internal parts Credo didn't make. Jensen did mention Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, but $CRDO is operating in the photonics space too with "BlueBird" (Optical DSPs) and "ZeroFlap" optics. And then there's Top of the Rack Connectivity, which is Credo's main business (which is the most power efficient solution for the next 2-3y). There are larger concerns over the shift to photonics (as I've pointed out with $AXTI multiple times), but industry is moving toward a hybrid model (copper + photonics) given the supply shortage. Again as an overview, investors just did not know the nuances, not intentional disinformation. So I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial + incorrect news.
-
AXTI因出口管制获垄断优势，虽今日大涨但真正波动或滞后，目前属早期入场。
考虑到今日的出口管制使 $AXTI 处于垄断地位，我认为今天超过+20%的涨幅本应更大！ 然而，真正的波动可能会像 $SNDK 或内存市场案例那样，在1-2个月后瓶颈出现时才会发生。 市值依然非常小，媒体也毫无报道。在座的各位仅仅是比市场更早入场罢了。
英文原文
本日の輸出規制により $AXTI が独占状態となったことを考えれば、今日の+20%を超える上昇はもっと大きくあるべきだったと考えていました！ しかし、本格的な変動は $SNDKやメモリ市場で起きた事例のように、1〜2ヶ月後にボトルネックが生じた際に起こるでしょう。 時価総額は依然として非常に小さく、メディアでの報道も皆無です。ここにいる皆さんは、単に市場より一足早く参入しているに過ぎません
-
博主调侃日本气象播报员恋情传闻及其对某人的影响。
@zephyr_z9 你确定不是因为日本气象播报员日山沙耶(Saya Hiyama)被曝秘密交往男友？ 然后，这位隐藏粉丝习近平(Xi Jingping)在该事件后士气低落。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Are you sure it’s not because Japanese Weather reporter Saya Hiyama was caught secretly having a boyfriend? Then Xi Jingping, a closeted fan, became demoralized after the incident.
-
询问对方对OUST是否有独立投资逻辑
@GyratingH 你对 $OUST 有具体的投资论点(Thesis)吗？还是只是想听听我对它的看法
英文原文
@GyratingH Did you have a thesis for $OUST? Or did you just want my opinion on it
-
AXTI垄断InP衬底，若断供将阻碍AI基建扩产。
@gemm_fc 2026日历年风险极小。我在此处发表了一些评论。 如果 $AXTI 停止出口磷化铟(InP)衬底，人工智能(AI)基础设施建设将无法扩产。 一旦竞争对手库存耗尽，AXT 将实质上成为垄断者。 https://t.co/P8LVlt2RkK
英文原文
@gemm_fc Very little risk for 2026 calendar year. Made some comments here. If $AXTI stopped exporting InP substrates, the AI buildout would not be able to ramp. AXT would effectively become a monopoly once inventory runs out for competitors https://t.co/P8LVlt2RkK
-
材料价格创历史新高，西方公司支付溢价，超大规模厂商尚未开始大规模采购。
@itsthesquonky 我会再给它几个月时间。你已经可以看到材料价格触及历史高点(ATH)，西方公司正在支付巨额溢价。 这还是在产能爬坡(pre-ramp)之前，$MSFT、$AMZN 和 $META 甚至 barely 开始。（$NVDA 预订了产能，造成了最初的冲击）
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’d give it a few months. You can already see material prices hitting ATHs, with Western companies paying large premiums. This is pre-ramp too, $MSFT, $AMZN, and $META barely even started. ( $NVDA booked out capacity, causing the initial shock) https://t.co/rEG5X7Co81
-
美国短期依赖AXTI等解决InP衬底瓶颈。
@jvthed210725 并非如此，美国最终会绕过磷化铟(InP)衬底的瓶颈。只是对于2026-2027年，在现有架构下，他们将高度依赖 $AXTI 以及 $LITE、$COHR 等公司。
英文原文
@jvthed210725 Not really, the US will engineer around the InP substrates bottleneck eventually. It’s just that for 2026-2027 with the current architectures, they’ll be heavily reliant on $AXTI and companies like $LITE, $COHR.
-
AXTI成InP衬底垄断瓶颈，估值偏低，建议关注其作为AI光学关键标的的投资价值。
$AXTI 在中国通过出口管制重创日本磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链后，实际上已成为一个单点故障垄断者。未来的AI基础设施建设依赖于光学技术。AXT目前的估值为11亿美元，考虑到其对$NVDA、$GOOGL、$MSFT、$META等公司的重要性，我觉得这个估值小得可笑。当然，如果中国限制AXT的出口，下游超大规模云服务商将面临更严重的问题。但是否值得买入这个瓶颈环节，由你决定。
英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a single point of failure monopoly after China crippled Japan’s InP substrates supply chains with export controls. The future AI buildout relies on optical. AXT is valued at $1.1B currently, which I find hilariously small given the importance to $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and so on. Of course if China restricts exports from AXT there are bigger things to worry about since this flows downstream to hyperscalers. But I’ll let you decide if it’s worth buying into the bottleneck.
-
中国出口管制致AXTI垄断InP衬底，成AI基建新瓶颈
英伟达CEO今日表示“内存瓶颈严重”。SK海力士($330B)、美光($MU, $355B)、三星($595B)。等着看当大家发现整个AI基础设施建设将被微小的$AXTI ($1B) 瓶颈化时，每个人的表情吧，尤其是在中国新的出口管制之后。
英文原文
Nvidia CEO said today that the “Memory Bottleneck is Severe” SK Hynix ($330B) $MU ($355B) Samsung ($595B). Wait and see the look on everyone’s face when they find out the entire AI buildout will be bottlenecked by the tiny $AXTI ($1B) after the China’s new export controls. https://t.co/iw6Nhitsry
-
中国出口管制重创日本InP供应链，SMTOY因业务占比小影响有限。
@thgstar2 作为股票，$SMTOY 可能表现尚可，因为它是一家体量极大的日本巨头，而磷化铟(InP)衬底生产仅占其业务的很小一部分。但中国今天通过出口管制，向日本的 InP 供应链投下了一枚“核弹”。https://t.co/Cq2wssDTA3
英文原文
@thgstar2 $SMTOY as a stock would likely be fine since it's an extremely large Japanese giant and InP substrate production is just a small part of their business. But China sent a nuke over to the InP supply chain in Japan with the export control today. https://t.co/Cq2wssDTA3
-
AI供应链因依赖单一源AXTI面临瓶颈风险，日本厂商或被迫切换产能。
这对AI基础设施建设绝对不是什么好事，因为整个AI供应链（例如$LITE、$COHR -> $GOOGL、$NVDA等）在接下来的两年里突然变得依赖于单一来源$AXTI。 一旦日本供应耗尽，像$LITE这样的公司可能会将产能从住友（Sumitomo）、JX转向$AXTI作为主要供应商（鉴于其已融资1亿美元用于扩大产能）。 不幸的是，日本没有美国那样的谈判能力来推翻这一局面。我们将看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
This is definitely not a good thing for the AI buildout because the whole AI supply chain eg. $LITE, $COHR -> $GOOGL, $NVDA others suddenly became dependent on a single source $AXTI for the next two years. Companies like $LITE will probably shift capacity from Sumitomo, JX to $AXTI as the main supplier (given they raised $100M for more capacity) once supply in Japan runs out. Unfortunately Japan doesn't have the same negotiating power as the US to overturn this. We'll see how this develops.
-
AXTI虽失日本市场，但成全球InP衬底主供。
这是一把双刃剑。$AXTI 可能无法再向日本出口，因此会失去那里的收入。然而，住友（Sumitomo）和其他衬底制造商将没有足够的材料来为全球其他地区生产足够的磷化铟(InP)衬底。因此，作为失去日本市场的代价，AXT 将成为全球主要供应商。
英文原文
It's a double edged sword. $AXTI likely cannot export to Japan anymore so it loses revenue there. However, Sumitomo and the other substrate makers would not have the materials to make enough InP substrates for the rest of the world. So AXT would be the main supplier globally for the tradeoff of losing the Japanese market.