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中国禁运铟将切断日本InP衬底供应，重创AI供应链。
今天中国商务部宣布禁止向日本出口“两用”物品。 日本公司（如住友电气和JX日本矿业）是磷化铟(InP)衬底生产的领导者。但中国主导着生产InP衬底所需的关键原材料铟(Indium)的供应。 禁令措辞宽泛（“任何其他可能有助于增强日本军事能力的用途”）。这使得北京可以切断向日本科技巨头出口原材料铟，因为像住友这样的公司为许多军事用途做出贡献。磷化铟(InP)将符合这一定义。 日本制造商可能拥有库存，因此生产不会今天停止。但库存会在几个月内耗尽，日本将缺乏大规模制造成品InP衬底所需的原料。 同和(Dowa)等公司仍将能够提供一定数量，但没有中国，日本制造商无法创造出AI建设所需的足够InP衬底。 所以基本上，这就像是对日本供应链->西方供应链的一枚出口管制核弹，以巩固对中国的依赖。
英文原文
Today China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on the export of "dual-use" items to Japan. Japanese companies (like Sumitomo Electric and JX Nippon Mining & Metals) are the leaders in producing InP substrates. But China dominates the supply of Indium, the critical raw material required to produce InP substrates. The wording of the ban is broad ("any other uses that could contribute to strengthening Japan’s military capabilities"). This allows Beijing to cut off exports of raw Indium to Japanese tech giants because companies. eg Sumitomo contribute to many military use cases. Indium Phosphide (InP) would be under this definition. Japanese manufacturers likely have stockpiles, so production won't stop today. But stockpiles dwindle in a few months, Japan will lack the feedstock required to make the finished InP Substrates at scale. Dowa and others will still able to provide certain amounts, but without China, Japanese manufacturers cannot create enough InP substrate required for the AI buildout. So basically this was just an export control nuke on the Japanese supply chain -> Western Supply chain to solidify dependence on China.
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AXTI因中国出口管制成InP衬底垄断者，股价大涨14%。
如果你想知道为什么 $AXTI 涨了 14%，大概是中国看到了这条推文，并向其唯一的另一家竞争对手发射了出口管制“核弹”。AXT 刚刚成为了磷化铟(InP)衬底的垄断者。https://t.co/i8FSYPscfx
英文原文
If you’re wondering why $AXTI is up 14%, China probably read this and sent an export control nuke to its only other competitor. AXT just became the monopoly of the InP substrates. https://t.co/i8FSYPscfx
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批评$IREN董事阿尔弗雷德违规，建议其离任以维护公司形象。
是的，你做出了正确的决定。迈克·阿尔弗雷德(Mike Alfred)可能会在下一届政府换届时因所有的拉抬出货(pumping, dumping)和无尽的证券违规行为而入狱。我不明白为什么@danroberts0101还让他留在董事会，这对$IREN的形象非常糟糕。站在历史正确的一边，不利用追随者，这样更好。
英文原文
Yeah you made the right decision, Mike Alfred would probably go to jail next administration change for all the pumping, dumping and endless securities violations he’s breaking. Not sure why @danroberts0101 keeps him on the board since it’s a terrible image for $IREN. It’s better to stay on the right side of history and not take advantage of followers.
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澄清$AIRO因递延收入被误读导致抛售，下季将确认。
@Mr__Cause 那是递延收入(deferred revenue)，而非流失收入。$AIRO 将在下季度确认这笔收入，但由于市场误解，所谓的“大幅不及预期”引发了抛售。
英文原文
@Mr__Cause That was deferred revenue, not lost revenue. $AIRO will recognize it next quarter but that “huge miss” caused the selloff since it was misunderstood.
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博主因委内瑞拉比特币储备理论获媒体关注而感荣幸。
@beauty_oe 做到了！看到主流媒体开始报道我关于“委内瑞拉比特币影子储备（Shadow Reserve）”的理论或叙事，感觉很有趣。作为最早指出这一点的分析师之一，我感到非常荣幸。
英文原文
@beauty_oe やった！主要メディアが私の『ベネズエラのビットコイン・シャドーリザーブ（隠れ準備金）』説やナラティブを取り上げているのを見るのは楽しいですね。これを最初に指摘したアナリストの一人として、とても光栄に思います。
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博主调侃拟效仿投行风格，以幽默标题撰写住友电工分析
@jukan05 我应该效仿摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)，将下一篇关于住友电工(Sumitomo)的帖子标题定为“日本温泉之旅”——我的关键心得
英文原文
@jukan05 I should copy Morgan Stanley and word my next post about Sumitomo “Japan Hot Springs Trip” - My Key Takeaway
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博主预告将发布研究并澄清未持有CIEN。
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis 我稍后/明天会发布一些我的研究。你们就会明白我的意思了。我没有持有 $CIEN。
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis I'll publish some of my research later today/tomorrow. You'll see what i mean Don't have $CIEN.
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作者卖出LITE转投COHR，认为其优于LITE但确信度不及NBIS。
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis 所以我目前其实更看好 $COHR 而非 $LITE，并在约 385 美元处卖出了我的 LITE 仓位。 前几天我做了一些内部研究，发现了一些潜在问题，但尚未发布。 话虽如此，它仍是一个不错的多头标的，但确信度不如 $NBIS。
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis So I actually like $COHR more than $LITE right now and sold my LITE positions at ~$385. I did some internal research the other day and found some potential issues but didn't publish it yet. That being said it's still a good long but not as high conviction as $NBIS.
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建议通过主动交易提升收益，被动持有仅获5%回报。
@LogicalThesis 可能需要积极进行波段交易(Active Swing Trading)和催化剂交易(Catalyst Trading)以获取更高回报。如果你只是被动持有去年的股票，那么5%的回报率已经很不错了。 https://t.co/tFmL0m9pey
英文原文
@LogicalThesis Probably need to be actively swing trading + catalyst trading for higher returns. If you’re just passively holding stocks from last year, then that 5% return is good. https://t.co/tFmL0m9pey
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AXTI对日营收受挫，博主将做后续分析
@AndDegen @illyquid @grok 情况很微妙，AXTI 对日本的销售收入也遭受重创。我会对此情况做后续分析。
英文原文
@AndDegen @illyquid @grok It’s nuanced, AXTI gets their revenue nuked to Japan as well. I’ll do a follow up analysis on the situation
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博主请求AI助手回答问题
@illyquid @grok 回答这个问题
英文原文
@illyquid @grok answer this question
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建仓$AIRO，看好其低估值及国防无人机订单带来的反弹机会。
我在 $AIRO 上建立了一个头寸，自3天前发布该帖以来已上涨+23%。 尽管 $ONDS 备受炒作，市场似乎仍不了解这只航空航天与国防股票。 这是一家无人机股票，市值约3亿美元，2026年预估收入超1.2亿美元（约2.5倍远期市销率）。 其他同类公司交易倍数为30-40+倍，而像 $AVAV 这样的大公司交易倍数约为9.3倍市销率。 这源于其2025-2026年1.9亿美元的订单指引，减去预估的2025财年约8690万美元及增长部分。 该板块正迎来巨大顺风，来自委内瑞拉/乌克兰的军事冲突以及1万亿美元的国防部国防支出。 $AIRO 已拥有来自北约+乌克兰武装部队的订单积压，包括如 RQ-35 Heidrun 等无人机，专为GPS拒止环境设计（乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突）。 由于其高管团队的历史，存在很大的执行不确定性，但我喜欢以下几点： - 无人机+国防板块变得极其火热 - 该股市销率处于极低水平 - 他们构建的东西很酷，就像我15美元买入 $RKLB 时一样 + 在2025年第三季度，AIRO 因发货延迟严重未达收入预期（报告630万美元 vs 较高预期）。然而，这只是递延收入，股价从30美元跌至10美元，我认为这是一个独特的机会。 这只是一个“淋浴思考”帖，绝非深入尽职调查。关键在于执行，且该股似乎没有任何溢价。 所以，我建仓 $AIRO 只是为了看看它会走向何方。
英文原文
I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago. Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype. It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s) Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger companies trade at ~9.3 p/s like $AVAV. This stems from their $190M guidance for 2025-2026 bookings subtracted by est. FY 2025 ~$86.9M + growth. There’s a huge tailwind for the sector coming from military conflicts in Venezuela/Ukraine and $1T DoD spending into defense. $AIRO already has order backlog from NATO + Ukraine armed forces for drones like RQ-35 Heidrun, designed for GPS-denied environments (Ukraine - Russia conflicts). There’s a lot of execution uncertainty due to their executive team history, but i like how: - Drone + Defense segment becoming extremely hot -this one trading at extremely low levels of P/S -what they’re building is cool like when I bought $RKLB at $15 + In Q3 2025, AIRO missed revenue expectations badly ($6.3M reported vs. higher expectations) due to shipment delays. However, this is just deferred revenue, the stock dropped from $30 -> $10, I thought this could be a unique opportunity. This is just a shower-thought post, by no means in-depth DD. Name of the game is execution, and this doesn’t seem to have any premiums. So, I’ve taken a position in $AIRO just to see where it goes.
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计划明日将持仓完全迁移至南亚科技。
@rwang07 我理解了你的指示，明天将完全迁移至南亚科技($NANY)。
英文原文
@rwang07 I understood your instructions, full porting Nanya tomorrow
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因风险考量，倾向持有获政府补贴的能源股，并警惕 Amber Energy 中标影响。
@FrontRangeHQ 我确实做过，但风险极高，因此鉴于美国政府为开发提供的补贴，$VLO、$AVAV 和 $CVX 目前看起来最安全。 我会对中标的 Amber Energy 59 亿美元报价保持警惕，因此我会在今天之后调整这些权重。
英文原文
@FrontRangeHQ I did but it’s extremely risky so $VLO, $AVAV, and $CVX look the safest right now given US gov subsidies for development. I’d be wary of the $5.9b amber energy bid that won so I’d change these weightings after today.
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美政府或补贴雪佛龙在委资本支出，利好其现金流。
这取决于你。不过 $CVX 是委内瑞拉仅剩的石油公司，基本掌控了该国的石油产能。市场此前定价认为雪佛龙需投入数十亿资本支出来实现委内瑞拉17万亿美元储量的价值。但现在美国政府很可能补贴所有这些支出，为公司去风险，使其无需投入即可获取利润并提升自由现金流（这对美国也是净利好，因为石油生产成本更低）。
英文原文
That’s up to you. $CVX however is the only one left in Venezuela and basically controls the oil production capacity of the country. Markets were pricing in Chevron spending billions of capex to realize the value of Venezuela's $17T reserves. But now the US government is likely to subsidize all of that, de-risking the company and just letting it reap in the profits + boost FCF without spend (which is net positive for the US too with cheaper oil production).
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特朗普拟补贴委内瑞拉石油项目，利好雪佛龙及炼油、服务公司。
突发消息： 1. 特朗普很可能补贴委内瑞拉的石油公司。 2. 特朗普目前正在会见美国石油公司领导人，讨论这些补贴并立即提升石油产量。 以下是可能获得资金和受益的公司： $CVX - 雪佛龙：美国补贴基本板上钉钉，因为它是目前唯一能立即部署这些补贴的美国主要公司。 炼油商 $VLO, $PSX 和 $MPC - 这些炼油厂专为处理委内瑞拉重质原油而建。补贴意味着石油流动更快，尽管由于参与者众多，具体分配更具投机性。 服务公司 $HAL, $BKR - 这些公司不拥有石油，但负责修复管道。随着美国修复极其老旧的管道，许多此类公司可能会收到补贴。 对于美国公司而言，无需承担自身资本风险即可利用委内瑞拉价值17万亿美元的石油储备“金矿”，这是极具回报的。 市场最初将高资本支出(Capex)计入其中几家公司的估值，现在随着对这些补贴的预期，我们可能会看到市场重新评级。 美国为石油公司支出提供资金改变了整体格局，对雪佛龙等石油公司构成利好。
英文原文
Just in: 1. Trump likely to Subsidize Oil Firms in Venezuela. 2. Trump is now currently meeting US Oil company leaders to discuss these subsidies and boosting Oil Production immediately Here’s what companies likely receives the funding and benefits: $CVX - Chevron US subsidies are basically guaranteed as they are the only U.S. major currently left that can use to immediately deploy these subsidies. Refiners $VLO, $PSX and $MPC - These refiners are built to process Venezuelan heavy crude. Subsidies mean the oil flows faster, albeit the exact allocations are more speculative due to multiple players. Service Companies $HAL, $BKR - These companies don't own the oil but they do fix the pipes. Many of these companies will likely receive subsidizes, as the US fixes extremely old pipelines. This is incredibly rewarding for US companies to capitalize on the $17T gold mine of Venezuelan oil reserves, without risking their own capital. Markets were initially pricing in high capex spend with a few of these, and now we might see a market re-rating in anticipation of these subsidies. US funding oil company spend changes the equation across the board and is bullish for oil firms like Chevron.
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特朗普言论加速局势，本土作战优势或避免重蹈伊拉克覆辙。
当我最初评论预计若动员部队具有敌意将导致3-18个月的延迟时，我也是这么想的。当时我更关注国防/军工承包商。 然而，鉴于特朗普对该局势的评论，情况似乎比预期发展得更快。由于这是在本土作战，且拥有现代化军事装备+情报支持，因此可能不会重蹈伊拉克战争的覆辙。
英文原文
I was thinking the same way when I made my original comments on expecting 3-18m delay if mobilized troops are hostile. And was focused more on defense/military contractors. However given trump’s comments about the situation, it looks like things are moving faster than expected and this is on home turf w/ modern military equipment + intelligence so it probably won’t be a repeat of Iraq
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CVX成委内瑞拉石油运营商，地缘溢价未充分定价。
我完全同意关于 $VLO 利润立即扩张的观点。然而，这涉及地缘政治角度：$CVX 基本上已成为美国政府在石油领域的非官方国家臂膀，类似于英特尔在半导体领域的地位。它是委内瑞拉唯一仍在运营的公司，鉴于特朗普希望开采石油并在中期选举前压低油价，其重要性至关重要。如果将其视为基本继承了一个国家的石油部门，5% 的涨幅并未完全反映这一价值。这不仅仅是雪佛龙发现了新垂直领域，更像是雪佛龙成为了委内瑞拉的石油运营商，仅凭这一角度就值得给予市盈率倍数溢价，因为其委内瑞拉资产已实现去风险化。
英文原文
So I definitely agree about $VLO with immediate profit expansion. However, this is is taking the geopolitical angle that $CVX has basically become unspoken US Gov national arm for Oil, similar to Intel for semis. It’s the only one standing in Venezuela, and is of critical importance given Trump wants to harvest the oil, and lower oil prices before midterm elections. If you look at it in the way it basically inherited a country’s oil sector a 5% bump is not quite pricing that in. It’s not quite Chevron found a new vertical, it’s more like Chevron became the oil operator of Venezuela and that angle alone deserves p/e multiple added given its Venezuelan assets are derisked
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推荐$AIRO，低市销率且订单积压充足，但非委内瑞拉事件直接受益者。
@init_malachi 如果你觉得错过了机会，还有像 $AIRO 这样的公司。它的市值为3亿美元，在无人机领域的2025/2026年订单积压约为2亿美元，且拥有6000多万美元的现金储备。与同行相比，其市销率(P/S)极低，但并未直接参与委内瑞拉的接管行动。
英文原文
@init_malachi There’s companies like $AIRO too if you feel you missed out, it’s $300m mc, with ~$200m or so order backlog for 2025/2026 in drones and $60m+ cashpile. P/S is extremely low compared to others, but not really directly involved in the Venezuela takeover
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分析GDRZF低市值及委内瑞拉未付索赔，决定继续持有。
@thgstar2 呃，它的市值只有3.6亿美元。而且他们实际上已经获得了一项11亿美元的索赔裁决，但委内瑞拉并未支付。 此外，还有另一项关于Siembra Minera（世界上最大的金/铜矿床之一）45%控制权的权益。 我想我会继续持有 $GDRZF，以防万一。
英文原文
@thgstar2 uhh, it's a $360M marketcap. And they literally have an awarded $1.1B claim already but Venezuela didn't pay. Then there's another one for 45% control over the Siembra Minera, one of the largest gold/copper deposits in the world. I think I'm holding $GDRZF, just in case.
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NBIS受ATM及CRWV影响，其他数据中心股表现良好，IREN异常。
@_visionarius $NBIS 正在运行一笔2500万股的主动式按需发行机制(ATM)，近期其表现更多与 $CRWV 的走势挂钩。其他数据中心(Colo)玩家表现良好，如 $HUT、$CIFR、$WULF。唯一的异常是 $IREN。
英文原文
@_visionarius $NBIS has an active 25M share ATM running and it's more tied to $CRWV's performance recently. The other colo players have been doing well, like $HUT, $CIFR, $WULF. The only anomaly is $IREN.
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博主调侃若为地缘政治套利牺牲道德，则对收益预期极高。
@crux_capital_ 如果我为了从美国对委内瑞拉的敌意收购中获利而牺牲我的道德，我对投资组合的期望值很高。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ If I'm sacrificing my morals to profit off the US hostile takeover of Venezuela, I have high expectations for the portfolio.
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复盘委内瑞拉政变后“国家重建”主题组合今日表现及个股反应。
比赛开始了。 “国家重建港口”组合今日表现： $GDRZF +95.83% $AVAV +14.7% $CVX +5.19% $ASHM +5.2% $HII +3.82% $TRGP -3.14% 令我惊讶的是，Gold Reserve $GDRZF 仅上涨 95%，考虑到其市值仍为 3.33 亿美元，而拥有约 81 亿美元的索赔权。 另一个惊喜是，Chevron $CVX 仅上涨 5%，鉴于消息显示他们作为最后的幸存者，基本上已经掌控了委内瑞拉。 $AVAV 表现优于预期，$HII 表现符合预期。$TRGP 的下跌令人意外。 我们将观察后续走势，因为这可能需要一些时间才能被市场充分定价（且并非所有人都了解这些标的）。
英文原文
And... We're off to the races. "Nation Building Port" Performance Today: $GDRZF +95.83% $AVAV +14.7% $CVX +5.19% $ASHM +5.2% $HII +3.82% $TRGP -3.14% I'm surprised Gold Reserve $GDRZF is only up 95%, given they're still a $333m MC with ~$8.1B in claims. Another surprise is that Chevron $CVX is only up 5% on the news that they basically own Venezuela's at this point as the last man standing. $AVAV performed better than expected, $HII performed on-par. $TRGP was a surprise on the drop. We'll see how this does later, as this probably takes some time to price in (and not everyone knows about these names).
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感谢认可，并称赞对委内瑞拉疑似持有比特币储备的总结。
@BitcoinArchive 感谢认可！这在如今相当罕见。 关于委内瑞拉疑似持有比特币储备的现状，总结得很棒。
英文原文
@BitcoinArchive Appreciate the credit! Quite rare nowadays. Great summary of the situation on hand regarding Venezuela’s speculated Bitcoin reserves.
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PLTR和TSLA持仓减少，2026年转向ZETA等标的。
@bennybigbull $PLTR 和 $TSLA 在上一季度的出现频率降低，进入 2026 年后被 $ZETA 等公司取代。
英文原文
@bennybigbull $PLTR and $TSLA stopped showing up as much last quarter and got replaced by companies like $ZETA entering 2026.
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回复指出在等权重配置下ONDS与RKLB地位相同。
@blu400_ 等权重配置。所以 $ONDS 和 $RKLB 是一样的。
英文原文
@blu400_ Equal weightings. So $ONDS and $RKLB are the same.
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FinX社区5天收益超Citadel全年，2025年大幅跑赢机构。
“FinX 对决华尔街”报告 这是 FinX 15，由最受欢迎的标的组成的加权组合： 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% 以下是 FinX 上周的表现： FinX 15 回报率（1周）：11.3% 2025 全年表现： - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater 的 Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK 创新 ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY 指数 = +17.72% - Poinpoint 多策略 = +11.6% - 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% 结论： 仅在 5 个交易日内，FinX 社区就击败了 Citadel 的全年收益。 进入 2026 年，我们正式碾压了机构。
英文原文
"FinX vs Wall Street" report This is FinX 15, a weighted port of the most popular names: 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% Here's how FinX did last week: FinX 15 Return (1-Week): 11.3% For the entire 2025 calendar year: - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK Innovation ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY Index = +17.72% - Poinpoint Multi-Strategy = +11.6% - - Berkshire Hathaway = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% The Bottom Line: In just 5 trading days, the FinX community beat Citadel’s entire year. We are officially smoking the institutions entering 2026
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认为市场低估了美国没收委内瑞拉比特币事件的影响。
@meaculpaK9 @martypartymusic 我认为你们低估了“枪口下的证明”(Proof of Gunpoint) 对美国当局没收委内瑞拉比特币这一事件的影响。
英文原文
@meaculpaK9 @martypartymusic I think you understimate Proof of Gunpoint on the effect of Venezuela’s Bitcoin confiscation by US authorities.
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美国释放委内瑞拉约60万枚比特币。
@dgt10011 美国只是让委内瑞拉的约60万枚比特币(Bitcoin)尝到了自由的滋味。
英文原文
@dgt10011 America is just giving Venezuela’s ~600K Bitcoins a taste of freedom
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美国接管委内瑞拉将长期利好CXV，但不预期单日暴涨。
@AkbarInvests 谢谢，我不预期 $CXV 会在一天内出现 massive rally（大幅拉升），但美国接管委内瑞拉从长远来看应该会对该公司带来巨大的好处。https://t.co/BDklE0Ovxl
英文原文
@AkbarInvests Thanks, I don’t expect $CXV to have a massive rally all in one day, but the US takeover of Venezuela should be wildly beneficial for the company over time. https://t.co/BDklE0Ovxl