个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2359 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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指出精材3374可能是未知的TSM COUPE供应商。
回复 @RockyKh49376975：可能就是 Xintec（3374），它算是一个不太为人所知的 $TSM COUPE 供应商。 而且它刚好也由台积电持有。
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@RockyKh49376975 Probably just Xintech (3374) which is kinda the unknown $TSM COUPE supplier. They happen to be owned by TSMC too.
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看好Foci并称MSScorp是检测垄断彩票票。
回复 @MattLay：老实说，我对那两个还没再涨50%非常惊讶。 我觉得原因是 CPO 还没有任何东西真正放量，所以没有反映在它们资产负债表里。 但我对 Foci 信念相当高，MSScorp 则像是一张检测垄断彩票票。
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@MattLay Honestly extremely surprised by those two, not going up another 50% yet. I think it’s because nothing CPO has scaled up yet so it’s not reflected in their balance sheets. But I have pretty high conviction in Foci, MSScorp is a lottery ticket for inspection monopoly.
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提出精材3374作为台积电COUPE封测子公司机会。
$TSM COUPE 供应商想法： 另一个是我有敞口的 Xintec（3374）。 这是 $TSM 的测试子公司，目前股价255，市值约21亿美元。 最大的疑问是它们是否和 COUPE 有关联……否则我不会建仓。 但最近有报告确认了台积电的垂直整合计划： “台积电正在建立硅光子帝国，积极通过子公司 Xintec 和 VisEra 寻求共封装光学(CPO)机会，据未具名供应链消息人士称…… 台积电预计将在5月14日（周四）于台湾新竹技术论坛上重点谈其硅光子计划，包括 COUPE 平台。” 所以如果它们是“积极追求机会”，对我来说基本就盖棺定论了。 无论如何，由于 $TSM 持有它，这个多头已经去风险。COUPE 带来上行？ 我个人觉得这是一个有趣想法。
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$TSM COUPE supplier idea: Another is Xintech (3374) that I have exposure to. This is $TSM’s testing subsidiary, currently trading at 255 ~$2.1B MC. Biggest wonder was if they were linked to COUPE… otherwise I wouldn’t take positions. But some report recently confirmed TSM’s vertical integration plans: “TSMC is building a Silicon Photonics empire, aggressively pursuing Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) opportunities with subsidiaries **Xintec** and VisEra citing unnamed supply chain sources… TSMC is expected to talk up its SiPho plans, including its COUPE platform May 14 (Thursday) at its Technology Symposium in Hsinchu, Taiwan.” So that kinda seals the deal for me if they’re “aggressively pursuit opportunities”. Derisked long anyway given $TSM owns it. Upside from COUPE? Thought it was an interesting idea personally.
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类比LITE光学浪潮，认为SIVE也可从30亿走向750亿。
$LITE 在第一波光学浪潮中，靠 EML 和可插拔从30亿美元涨到750亿美元，用了2年时间。 我的论点是，$SIVE 可以靠 CPO/可插拔和 CW 从30亿美元做到同样的事。 Sivers + GFS 硅光子参考激光器新闻，加上今天上涨54%。 这只是路上的一步。
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$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
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认为XFAB像早期TSEM，具备Nvidia/Nokia验证和政府补贴。
说实话，$XFAB 有点让我想起早期的 $TSEM。 只是市值低于20亿美元。 你基本上很少能找到一家低于20亿美元的公司，拥有 $NVDA 和 $NOK 正在主动验证其商业化前硅光子代工平台（photonixFAB）。 同时还能获得 CHIPS Act / 政府补贴来补贴资本开支。 还在引领……
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Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the
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黄仁勋称MRVL是下一家万亿美元公司，作者持有Marvell。
$NVDA 黄仁勋： “$MRVL 是下一家1万亿美元公司，女士们先生们。” Marvell 目前市值1910亿美元。 我持有 Marvell……但我们对 Jensen 带来5倍空间有多大信心？
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$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D
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称Hammond是加拿大变压器瓶颈多头。
回复 @AliTava2020：$HPS.A 是我在加拿大的变压器瓶颈多头。 它有很大的积压订单，所以多年收入可见度高，并且在干式变压器中市场份额高。 美国 Production Act 可能会让 Hammond 这类公司受益。
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@AliTava2020 $HPS.A was my Canadian long for transformers bottleneck. Pretty large backlog, so multi-year revenue visibility, high market share over dry transformers. US production Act likely benefiting companies like Hammond.
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称AAOI是最喜欢的美国光学多头，2027年上半年到下半年或是拐点。
我确实说过 $AAOI 是我最喜欢的美国光学多头…… 今天 +20.1%。 如果你想找下一个 $SNDK，你正在看着它。 我认为2027年上半年进入下半年时，可能会是光子学玩家的巨大拐点。 我们只是稍微早了一点，现在才进入2026年下半年，而大家还在……
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I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is https://t.co/0JuWJFrz32
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称没有自己SIVE也会很好，只是可能由机构持有。
回复 @JohanAn37323972：$SIVE 没有我也会很好。 唯一的区别是，它现在可能已经90%由机构持有，而不是由美国散户持有。
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@JohanAn37323972 $SIVE would do just fine without me. The only difference is it would be 90% institutional owned by now instead of US retail.
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称若SIVE跌回低位会考虑发基金买下，因JBL放量和更多客户在路上。
回复 @Path21Mil：如果 $SIVE 真跌到那些水平，我可能会考虑发一个基金直接把它买下来，哈哈。 考虑到 $JBL 可插拔放量和更多光收发器客户正在推进，我不认为它还能再回到那里。 也不确定他们是在为谁分析，瑞典人不……
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@Path21Mil I’d probably consider launching a fund to just buy out $SIVE if it reached those levels lol. Don’t think it’s possible to go there again, given $JBL pluggable ramp and more optical transceiver customers underway. Also not sure who they’re analyzing for, Swedish folks don’t
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认为XFAB受2025周期低迷拖累，接近账面和重置价值；Melexis也可能接近汽车周期底部。
回复 @MatteoDeDycker：据我所见，2025年是周期性低迷。$XFAB 已经被拖累，因为它接近市净率价值，也低于我个人估算的实际资产重置成本。 对于 Melexis，也是在猜我们接近汽车周期底部，传统业务拖累有点像……
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@MatteoDeDycker From what I’ve seen, cyclical slump 2025. $XFAB was already dragged down, since it’s close to P/B value and lower than actual cost of asset replacement value from personal est. For Melexis, it’s also a guess we’re near the bottom of automotive cycle for legacy drag kinda like https://t.co/qDjspQB3yd
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围绕XFAB、800VDC、GaN/SiC和西方供应链做移动端思考。
一些手机上随手写的关于 $XFAB 的思路： 1. $NVDA 推动 800VDC，寻找 GaN/SiC 玩家和功率半导体。 2. $NVTS 和其他受益于 $NVDA 推动的 fabless/fab-lite 公司，可能使用代工模式。 3. 相比亚洲供应链，我更关心西方供应链……
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Just some mobile shower thoughts around $XFAB and train of thought: 1. 800vdc $NVDA push look for GaN/SiC players / power semis. 2. $NVTS and other fabless/fab-lite beneficiaries of $NVDA push probably use foundry models 3. care more about Western supply chains over Asia,
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称AAOI是当前美国市场最喜欢的光子学敞口。
$AAOI 实际上是我现在在美国市场最喜欢的光子学敞口。 去年我在28美元以低仓位做多，当时我猜它们正在与 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 认证。 业绩后约70美元时我有高信念，因为它们宣布了1.6T 和其他批量订单……
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$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with
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称LPK论点不变，等待放量开始。
回复 @aiizisw77940 @talethdabm89：不是，$LPK 仍然一样，只是在等待放量开始。
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@aiizisw77940 @talethdabm89 Nope, it’s still the same with $LPK, just waiting on volume ramp to start.
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信任SIVE管理层，若像SNAP才会更激进维权。
回复 @AsianbeBlazin：因为我相信 $SIVE 管理层自己知道该怎么做。 如果他们像 $SNAP 那样运营，我会更激进地做维权投资。
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@AsianbeBlazin Because I’m confident $SIVE management knows what to do by themselves. If they operated like $SNAP I’d be more activist.
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高度认可SIVE管理层，并看好纳斯达克双重上市路径。
回复 @_king142：不知道，只是把我的观点公开抛出来。 但到目前为止，我对 $SIVE 管理层极其、极其印象深刻。我认为他们很快通过 NASDAQ 双重上市走在正确道路上。
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@_king142 No clue, just floating out my opinion into the public. But I’m extremely, extremely impressed with $SIVE management so far. And I think they’re heading down the right path with NASDAQ dual listing soon.
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认为SIVE因美国客户、股东和CHIPS支持而适合美国化。
回复 @Noamneo_：$SIVE 是一个极其特殊的案例，因为它已经通过客户、股权结构、CHIPS Act 等拥有重大美国存在。 主要留在瑞典、面对一个试图阻碍其增长的本地市场，并不理想。 我不会说同样的迁址对其他公司也一定正确……
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@Noamneo_ $SIVE is an extremely singular case just because of major US presence already from customers, cap table, CHIPS acts, and others. Staying primarily in Sweden with a local market that tries to hinder their growth, isn’t ideal. I wouldn’t say the same redomestication is the right
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主张SIVE应成为完整美国公司，纳斯达克上市是第一步。
我认为 $SIVE 应该直接成为一家完整的美国公司，并把 NASDAQ 上市作为第一步。 > 美国股权结构/大型持股 + 已有美国 CHIPS Act 支持 > 更高估值溢价 + 并购机会 > 瑞典本地媒体来自深度亏损者的明显错误信息……
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I think $SIVE should just become a full American company, and use NASDAQ listing as the first step. > US cap table / large ownership + US CHIPS act support already > larger valuation premiums + M&A opportunities. > local Swedish media blatant disinformation from underwater
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随机预测一年后AAOI/SIVE/Foci/Shunsin市值。
回复 @Batemanzm75：我来随便做一个一年后的预测： $AAOI - 700亿美元市值 $SIVE - 300亿美元市值 Foci - 150亿美元市值 Shunsin - 100亿美元市值
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@Batemanzm75 I’m gonna go ahead and make a random prediction in a year: $AAOI - $70B MC $SIVE - $30B MC Foci - $15B MC Shunsin - $10B MC
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认为AAOI、SIVE、Foci、Shunsin当前风险收益最好。
- $AAOI 120亿美元 - $SIVE 20亿美元 - Foci 28亿美元 - Shunsin 20亿美元 在我看来，这些通常是目前最好的风险/回报。之前我的很多答案，比如 $AXTI，已经涨了10倍，所以这次阵容不同。 $AAOI 是因为产能爬坡带来的2027年上半年荒谬收入预测，正在做所有事情……
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- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything
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认为SIVE 60%毛利率显示极强定价权。
回复 @ram_blings：不是1:1，但 $LITE 毛利率大约45-48%。 $SIVE 能有60%毛利率，是极强的定价权。 而且这还叠加在指数级增长的收入管线上……并且处在 CPO 超级周期刚开始的时候。
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@ram_blings Not 1:1 but $LITE gross margins are ~45-48%. Having 60% gross margins for $SIVE is extreme pricing power. And that’s on top of exponentially growing revenue pipelines… at the very beginning of the CPO supercycle.
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SIVE称需求远超供应且未来60%毛利率，作者认为极度看多。
天啊，这是我目前从 $SIVE 听到的最看多的内容。 来自财报电话会记录： “当需求远远超过供应时，我们不看竞争对手”（字面意思是他们生产的任何东西都会被买走）。 同时还有：“我们认为未来毛利率为60%”（极其……）
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Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far. From earnings transcripts: “We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought) Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly https://t.co/6u3LSTQofy
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极度看多SIVE，因前瞻增长77%、JBL放量确认和多个量产启动。
回复 @DeJeff48985：极度看多 $SIVE。 我对自己持有名字的财报一向非常直白诚实。 我们从整个公司管线中看到了单季度77%的前瞻增长信号。 $JBL 放量确认。 然后还有多个量产爬坡开始……
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@DeJeff48985 Extremely bullish on $SIVE. I’m very brutally honest when it comes to earnings reports on the names I own. We got 77% forward growth indications from the entire company’s pipelines… over a single quarter. $JBL ramp confirmation. Then multiple volume ramp production starts
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Hammond变压器多头两个月上涨83%，需求可见度高。
$HPS.A 接近两个月时间框架。 “天上的变压器”自那以后上涨83.3%。大黄蜂 go brrr？ 但说真的，变压器需求可见度非常高，积压订单扎实，干式变压器市场份额高。 不算抛物线式上涨，但看起来是一个有吸引力的复利标的。
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$HPS.A is close is to a 2M timeframe. Transformers in the Sky are up 83.3% since. Bumblebee go brrr? But in all reality, transformers demand visibility is very high, solid backlog, high market share (of dry). Not exactly parabolic, but looks like a compelling compounder. https://t.co/bNGwjqfZ4M
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即使AAOI已130亿市值，因激光瓶颈和2027收入爬坡更看多。
考虑到最近所有激光瓶颈，我实际上比 $AAOI 在20亿美元或60亿美元市值时，更看好现在130亿美元市值的 $AAOI。 我也认为市场错过了关于它可能与 $NVDA 或 $AMD 签订长期供应协议的分析师注释。 如果他们预测2027年上半年4.71亿美元……那是荒谬的爬坡。 当然，6亿美元 ATM 是短期压制。 只是等待时间的问题？因为这更多是能否跟上需求。 所以问题更多是他们能生产多少。 它大概是我现在持有的、最喜欢的美国本土光子学多头。
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I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that’s absurd ramp. But of course the $600M ATM is a short term overhang. Just a matter of waiting time? Given it’s more about keeping up with demand… So more of a matter of how much they can make. Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
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$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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认为XFAB在15亿美元市值很有吸引力，是美国唯一高量SiC代工厂。
我真心认为 $XFAB 在15亿美元市值非常有吸引力，尽管最近波动很大。 根据 NIST 文件，它们是美国唯一的高量 SiC 代工厂。 这让它们成为极其“关键的基础设施”……这是美国政府原话。 而且它们是第一个综合……
英文原文
I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility. Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America. Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov. And they’re the first comprehensive https://t.co/4OGXctOv5h
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感谢路透和彭博中性报道XFAB，但强调800VDC、NVDA/NOK评估和CHIPS催化。
感谢路透和彭博今天对 $XFAB 更中性的报道。 不过如果能更多聚焦我提出的结构性 thesis 会更好…… 围绕 800VDC 功率半导体的 $NVDA 敞口，以及正在进行的 $NVDA / $NOK 光子学评估。 以及 CHIPS Act 半导体主权作为近期催化。 而不是围绕新型信息综合带来的波动。 你知道的，我花很多时间看监管文件，寻找市场错过的有吸引力东西。
英文原文
Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…
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长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
英文原文
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
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XFAB兼具光子学和功率半导体，EU CHIPS Act 2是催化。
$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）是一个有趣的多头想法，市值12.8亿美元，我已经建仓。 考虑到 EU CHIPS Act 2 今天是欧洲光子学玩家的催化。 > 通过 $NVTS + $POWI，拥有 $NVDA 推动下的 800VDC 功率半导体敞口。 > 硅光子 / CPO……
英文原文
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O