· 个股论点
涉及标的： $COHR$FN$GFS$JBL$POET$SIVE
相关概念： CPO 共封装光学
@Malinrec - 因为新一代 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T optical transceivers)和共封装光学(CPO)的出货量尚未爬坡。$SIVE 正瞄准所有下一代光学变革。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署始于 2028 年，你不可能在 2024 年获得 9 位数收入。 - $SIVE 拥有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错，其中 1/4 到 1/3 是博士。 他们做的很多是知识产权(IP)，并使用 Win Semi 和外部晶圆厂进行量产爬坡。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，你会看到员工数量激增。 不太明白为什么你说一个向 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 和许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是毫无希望的案例。 这可能是我见过的最独特的案例之一。
@Malinrec - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.