个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 18 / 45 页
-
深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
-
Landmark是纯正外延晶圆代工标的，无传统业务拖累且资产负债表优于IQE。
@01010001x Landmark 无疑是市值 $3.85B 的 epiwafer foundry（外延晶圆代工）最纯正的标的。虽然其产能低于竞争对手 $IQE（约 $2.00B），但它没有传统业务拖累，且资产负债表更优。
英文原文
@01010001x Landmark is the most pure play inp epiwafer foundry at $3.85B MC for sure. It has lower capacity than their ~$200M $IQE competitor but has no legacy drag exposure and a better balance sheet.
-
警告$KORU三倍杠杆在剧烈回调中的风险。
@iverson3 $KORU 的玩法……直到它失效为止。如果市场出现剧烈回调，3倍杠杆带来的损失将不堪设想。
英文原文
@iverson3 $KORU works… until it doesn’t. 3x leverage on a steep correction if there is one won’t look pretty.
-
反驳“太晚”论，指出牛市下运营利润将远超市值。
@itssaltyyyy > $5200亿市值 > 牛市情景下，到2027年运营利润达$5100亿 > “太晚了”
英文原文
@itssaltyyyy > $520B MC > ends up making $510B operating profit by 2027 in a bull case > “it’s too late”
-
杠杆工具增加SK海力士和三星波动，但当前价位可安心持有。
是的，由于新的10倍永续合约(perpetual contracts)、即将推出的2倍杠杆ETF(leveraged ETFs)及其他工具，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)确实存在因杠杆带来的巨大波动潜力。尤其是$EWY和韩国KOSPI指数(SK Index)基本上就是这两家公司的代表。但就个人而言，在当前价位上，这是可以让人安心睡觉的。
英文原文
Yes there’s a lot of potential volatility due to leverage on SK Hynix and Samsung with the new 10x perps, new 2x leveraged ETFs coming out soon, and other instruments. ESP since $EWY and SK Index are basically a representation of those two companies. But personally, it’s something that can be slept easy on at these levels.
-
对比FLKR与EWY，前者费率低，后者可交易期权。
@SlumberMD $FLKR 在持有份额方面表现更佳，因为其费用率更低。$EWY 可以进行期权交易。
英文原文
@SlumberMD $FLKR is better for shares due to lower expense ratios. $EWY has option trading.
-
韩国指数由三星和SK海力士驱动，盈利强劲，类比台积电具长期做多价值。
$KOSPI 和 $EWY，人们不应该试图对韩国指数进行技术分析(TA)或将其与白银等资产进行比较。 韩国指数正处于价格发现阶段，主要由两只股票带动： 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和麦格理(Macquarie)对其营业利润的预测如下： 三星(Samsung) 2026年：约1820亿 - 2108亿美元 2027年：约2351亿 - 3337亿美元 SK海力士(SK Hynix)： 2026年：约1329亿 - 1905亿美元 2027年：约1670亿 - 3128亿美元 如果SK海力士的估值为5000亿美元，而其2026和2027财年的预测营业利润为5100亿美元。 这看起来简直荒谬。（右侧为麦格理的多头情景预测） 我可能会更倾向于参考摩根士丹利的预测（这更加务实），但核心观点依然成立：这些公司的盈利能力极强。 如果三星未来交易价格达到2.5万亿美元（目前为1万亿美元），我也不会感到惊讶。 它给人的感觉就像两年前的 $TSM 一样，看起来是一个显而易见的做多机会。
英文原文
$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea’s index is something people shouldn’t try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver. SK index is in price discovery mode as it’s carried by two stocks: Whose operating profit projections from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are: Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B - ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B - ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B - ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B - ~$312.8B USD If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B. It just looks silly. (From Macquarie's bull case projections on the right) I’d probably go off Morgan Stanley projections instead (which is a lot more grounded) but the point still stands that these companies are just so profitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now). It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.
-
推荐$XLU作为电网现代化受益标的，提示注意隐含波动率定价。
$XLU 是我看好能源/电网现代化、降息预期以及推理/训练大规模用量的首选多头标的。进入这些交易无需匆忙，公用事业和电力板块通常像恐龙一样移动缓慢。但如果你进行大幅跳跃式建仓，请确保隐含波动率(IV)定价在 14-16% 的正确区间，而非虚高的行权价。
英文原文
$XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training. There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.
-
EWJ比EWY更分散，建议利用ETF做方向性杠杆而非博弈波动率。
$EWJ 相比 $EWY 的分散度更高，后者基本上只有三星和 SK 海力士两家公司。我认为日本和台湾 ETF 的隐含波动率(IV)定价合理。如果你要介入这些标的，应该更多是为了方向性的杠杆，而不是 Vega 扩张，因为内存超级周期带来的 Vega 扩张是独一无二的。
英文原文
$EWJ is more diversified compared to $EWY which is basically two companies in Samsung and SK Hynix. I think IV is reasonably priced for Japan and Taiwan ETFs. If you’re entering those it should be more for leverage on direction rather than Vega expansion, which was one of a kind from the memory supercycle
-
LITE 深度绑定 Google TPU，ASIC 放量预期在 2027-2028 年。
$LITE 与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目直接相关，约占物料清单(BOM)价值的 8-12%。其他超大规模云计算提供商的专用集成电路(ASIC)占比可能仅为低个位数百分比。Google 大幅上调了资本支出(Capex)预测数字。市场假设这将惠及 $LITE。我认为你不应该基于 60% 来自 ASIC 放量等任意数字进行建模。大部分光子学/ASIC 的放量预计发生在 2027 年末至 2028 年，市场目前只是在提前交易这一预期。我在股价再次翻倍前的研究论文中做过原始估值计算，最近没有更新。
英文原文
$LITE is directly tied to $GOOGL TPU programs and is ~8-12% of BOM value Other hyperscaler ASICs is likely low single digit %. Google hiked projected capex numbers a lot. And the assumption is that trickles down into $LITE. I don’t think you should model based on arbitrary numbers figures like 60% should be off asic ramp. Majority of photonics/asic ramp is expected to happen late 2027 into 2028, and markets are just frontrunning that now. I did the original valuation math in my thesis before it doubled again, haven’t done it recently.
-
点评AEHR获AI量产订单及NVDA引发的市场波动。
我并没有交易它，但它的波动性确实很大。考虑到 $NVDA 引发了全面的抛售，你的入场时机把握得很好。至于 $AEHR，他们终于度过了 $POET 的研发阶段，今年开始获得超大规模云服务商/AI 公司的量产订单。所以想简单写一下关于它的分析。
英文原文
I haven't been trading it, but it's really volatile. You did time it well considering $NVDA caused a selloff across the board. As for, $AEHR they've finally gotten past that $POET R&D stage and hitting hyperscaler/AI company production orders this year. So just wanted to do a tiny write-up about it.
-
解析$AEHR作为AI芯片热测试瓶颈解决者，正从研发转向量产，受益于巨头资本开支周期。
更简明的 $AEHR 概览 - 11 亿美元（无行话）。这是我的一个多头持仓： 在 AI 领域，散热是一个已知的瓶颈。 随着新一代 $NVDA 或 $AMD 类型的芯片发热量增加，如果一颗芯片熔毁，将是灾难性的。 因此科技巨头 -> 对每一颗芯片进行热应力测试，以查看其是否会在现场过早失效。 $AEHR 出售用于测试这些芯片的机器。 去年，他们类似于 $POET（处于预认证/测试阶段） -> 但现在他们已经通过了认证。 我们正看到从研发到大规模生产的拐点： 今天： -> $AEHR 获得 1400 万美元的芯片老化系统（wafer level）订单，以帮助扩大芯片生产。 但这台 1400 万美元的机器每周只能处理有限数量的晶圆。 -> 随着该 AI 客户扩大规模，他们将物理上耗尽热测试吞吐量。 因此，如果他们喜欢 $AEHR，就会购买更多，从而推动收入增长。 他们还有一个独立的产品线（Sonoma），用于测试封装后的芯片。 超大规模云服务商一直在订购此产品，因此有两个不同的测试阶段，两条收入来源。 管理层指引 2026 年下半年新增订单为 6000 万至 8000 万美元（这是巨大的增长）。 你可以参考 $TER（510 亿美元）或爱德万测试（约 1250 亿美元）来看看这类公司能有多大。 他们还在其他数据中心层进行测试： - 他们正在与 NAND Flash 内存供应商合作 - 硅光子学 我尽量去除了大部分技术行话，以便大多数人更容易理解，但这确实是一个微妙/技术性的领域。 $AEHR 具有潜力，因为它在多年的研发和认证后，现在开始实现真实规模的量产。 我们正处于一个巨大的资本支出周期中（想想 $ASML 的周期，人们为建设订购大量机器）。
英文原文
A simpler overview of $AEHR - $1.1B (without the jargon). One of my long positions: With AI, thermal is a known bottleneck. With new gen $NVDA or $AMD type chips that gets hot, if one chip melts down, it's a disaster. So tech giants -> every single chip stress tested with heat to see if it fails prematurely in the field. $AEHR sells the machines that does the testing of these chips. Last year, they were like $POET (pre-qualification/test phase) -> but now they've passed. We're seeing that inflection from R&D to mass production: Today: -> $14M order for $AEHR burn-in systems to help scale chip production (wafer level) But that $14M machine order can only handle a finite number of wafers per week. -> As this AI customer scales up, they will physically run out of thermal testing throughput. so they buy more if they like $AEHR, and this ramps up revenue. They also have a separate product line (Sonoma) for testing chips after they're packaged. Hyperscalers have been ordering this, so two different testing stages, two revenue streams. Management guided for a massive second half 2026 $60M to $80M in new bookings (which is big growth). You can look at $TER ($51B) or Advantest (~$125B) to see the ceiling of how big a lot of these companies can get. They also do testing across other data center layers too: - So they're working with NAND Flash memory suppliers - Silicon photonics Tried to strip out as much technical jargon as possible so it's more understandable to majority, but it's a very nuanced/technical field. $AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification. And we're sitting in an enormous capex cycle (think $ASML cycles, where people order a lot of machines for the buildout).
-
分析 $LITE 作为光子供应链龙头的反转潜力，同时提示债务与稀释风险。
并非建议投资，我已多次强调其净债务高企，且因稀释效应而具有内在风险，此处仅分享我认为其有趣的原因。除此之外，它是全球上游光子供应链中最大的外延晶圆(epiwafer)晶圆厂之一，也是 $LITE 的知名供应商。另一家领导者是台湾的 Landmark，其市值为 38.5 亿美元，可作为基准，因此我认为存在反转潜力。
英文原文
Not telling people to invest, I’ve already maintained multiple times its net debt and inherently risky due to dilution and just sharing why I found it interesting. That aside, they’re one of the largest epiwafer fabs in the world for upstream photonic supply chains and a known $LITE supplier. The other leader is Landmark over in Taiwan and it’s sitting at $3.85B as a benchmark, so I do think there’s a turnaround potential.
-
警告某标的因债务和稀释存在风险，并更正代工定义。
这不是个好主意，由于净债务和潜在的稀释效应，其本身具有风险。 我只是分享我的思考过程，但每个人的风险承受能力不同，所以请务必自行研究。 另外更正一下：最大的外包*外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂。像 $COHR 这样的公司是垂直整合的。
英文原文
Not a good idea, it’s inherently risky due to net debt and potential dilution. I’m just sharing my thought process but risk-tolerance is different for everyone so make sure to do your own research Also a correction: largest outsourced* epiwafer foundry. Companies like $COHR are vertically integrated
-
IQE 重组后有望对标 Landmark 实现大幅重估，是超大规模云厂商光子学供应链的二元高赔率标的。
如果要在 $AXTI 之后只选一只 10 倍股，那可能是 $IQE。 我的思考过程简版： - 最接近的对比是台湾的 LandMark Optoelectronics（用于外延片 epiwafers）。其估值约为 38 亿美元。 - $LITE <- $IQE 是已知关系，且 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 和超大规模云厂商 ASIC 的已知供应商。 - IQE 是全球最大的外延片晶圆代工企业，估值仅为 1.5 亿美元。 - 为什么 Landmark 估值 38 亿而 IQE 仅 1.5 亿？$IQE 有 2350 万英镑净债务和 1800 万英镑可转换票据。以及传统智能手机射频业务的拖累。 - Landmark 是磷化铟 (InP) 外延片的纯概念股，其估值展示了 IQE 的潜力。 - 所以当你看净债务 + 可转换票据……4100 万英镑基本上就是零钱？尤其对于超大规模云厂商供应链而言。 - Landmark 有 27 到 30 台 MOCVD 反应器。IQE 运营超过 100 台。 - $IQE 需要做的就是重组（他们正在做），出售拖累业务将消除债务。并专注于光子学供应链，其产能远超台湾同行，这将证明重新估值的合理性。 基本上，如果你看一个规模更小（但更纯粹的 $IQE 版本 Landmark），其估值接近 IQE 当前业务的 25 倍。 downside 是你会被稀释到虚无，但 4100 万英镑对超大规模云厂商来说感觉没什么？ 所以这是一个基于 $IQE 在超大规模云厂商光子学供应链中的重要性，因重新估值而产生的二元非对称性“登月”选择。
英文原文
If I had to pick a 10x return-stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE. My thought process TLDR: - Closest comparison would be Taiwan's LandMark Optoelectronics for epiwafers. It's valued at ~$3.8B. - $LITE <- $IQE is a known relation, and $LITE is a known supplier to $GOOGL TPUs and hyperscaler ASICs. - IQE is the largest epiwafer foundry in the world, valued at $150M. - Why is Landmark valued at $3.8B vs. $150M? $IQE has -£23.5 million net debt and £18M convertible notes. And drag from legacy smartphone RF. - Landmark is pure play for InP epiwafer and just an idea to what it could be valued at. - So when you go look at net debt + convertibles... £41M is basically pennies? Especially to a hyperscaler supply chain. - Landmark has 27 to 30 MOCVD reactors. IQE operates over 100. - All $IQE needs to do is restructure (which they're doing now), selling off their drag will remove debt. And focusing on the photonics supply chain with much more capacity than their Taiwan counterparty would warrant rerating. Basically, if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business. The downside is you get diluted to oblivion, but the £41M feels kinda like nothing to hyperscalers? So this is a binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics.
-
认为$EWY隐含波动率被低估，因存储超级周期将带来巨大波动。
我真心认为做市商错误定价了 $EWY 2028 年的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)，因为它本质上是对三星/SK海力士的看涨期权。 并非每天都能看到一个“非波动性”指数在 45% 的 IV 下每日波动 7%。 相比之下，它比以 55% IV 交易的 $MRVL 波动性大得多（仅比较两者的图表）。 像 Jane Street 这样的做市商可能正在定价均值回归（回到无聊的 5-10 年停滞期），但由于存储超级周期，这种情况永远不会发生。 或者是 ETF 再平衡，这通过传递结构无意中导致了对 SK 海力士和三星的更多集中。 大多数 2 年后的虚值(OTM)行权价在短短 2 个月内就变成了实值(ITM)。 随着 10 倍杠杆的 SK 海力士/三星或 2 倍杠杆 ETF 起飞，还有大量未实现的未来波动性。 如果 IV 保持低位，你可以让看涨期权以低溢价轻松突破行权价。
英文原文
I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day. For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs) Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle. Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.
-
IQE对西方供应链关键，结果呈二元性。
@CigCapital 我确实提到过 $IQE，它可能成为大牛股，也可能因稀释而成为灾难。这看起来像是一个二元事件，但他们对西方供应链和 $LITE 至关重要。
英文原文
@CigCapital I did mention $IQE which could be a potential banger or dilution disaster. Seems like a binary event here but they were pretty critical to Western supply chains and $LITE.
-
IQE关联巨头但负债高，属高风险博弈，波动性预计剧烈。
$IQE 是一家市值1.5亿美元的备受关注的公司，我发现了它与 $LITE（Lumentum）和 GOOGL（谷歌）之间的联系！不过，其资产负债表相当糟糕，处于净债务（Net Debt）状态。尽管如此，这更像是一场“孤注一掷的赌局”，即它在收发器(Transceiver)或超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)供应链中的重要性，是否能抵消其糟糕的财务状况。顺便说一句，这只股票的波动性（Volatility）看起来会和 $AXTI 一样剧烈！
英文原文
$IQE は時価総額1億5,000万ドルの注目銘柄で, $LITE （ルメンタム）や GOOGL（グーグル）との繋がりを見つけました！ただ、バランスシートはかなりボロボロで実質有利子負債（ネットデット）の状態です。とはいえ、トランシーバーやハイパースケーラーのサプライチェーンにおける重要性が、財務状況の悪さを上回るかどうかの「一か八かの賭け」といったところですね。 それはそうと、この銘柄も $AXTI と同じくらいボラティリティ（価格変動）が激しくなりそうです！
-
询问何时卖出AXTI股票
@demarscrypto 谢谢 demarscrypto，如果你改变了对 $AXTI 的看法，请告诉我，这样我就知道何时卖出。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Thank you demarscrypto, let me know if you change your mind on $AXTI so I know when to sell.
-
建议避开高溢价期权，因做市商因杠杆风险提高$XLU虚值期权权利金。
@bennybigbull 是的，可能最好避开定价过高的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)。做市商(Market Makers)可能只是不想成为 $XLU 虚值(Out-of-the-Money)期权的对手方，因为你可以获得约72倍的标的名义杠杆，所以他们大幅提高了期权权利金(Premiums)。
英文原文
@bennybigbull Yeah probably stay away from overpriced IV. MMs probably just don’t want be the counterparty on $XLU OTM since you can leverage 72x notational or so, so they’re raising premiums a lot.
-
看好$XLU因AI电力需求及降息带来的重估机会。
人们可能没意识到，在全球移动最缓慢的板块之一上，这一波行情有多大。 $XLU 一周涨幅 2.56%。 尤其是隐含波动率(IV)仅为 14% 的情况下。 自 2000 年以来，无聊的电力/电网板块（不含股息）的历史总回报率为 79.73%。 期权价值轻松实现两位数甚至三位数的增长。 话虽如此，如果 IV 偏高（例如超过 17.5%），建议避开。 我的论点（Thesis）是：由于降息、AI 推理（Inference）使用以及电网/电力现代化，这是全球最无聊板块的千载难逢的重估机会。 希望这是我论点开始兑现的开端。
英文原文
Don’t think people realize how big this move on one of the Slowest. Moving. Sectors. In the world is. 2.56% in a week on $XLU. Especially if IV is 14%. All time return since year 2000 is 79.73% for the boring power/grid sector (not including dividends). Option values are easily up double digits or triple digits. That being said if IV is elevated (eg. above 17.5%) probably stay away. My thesis was this was the once in a lifetime rerating on the most boring sector in the world due to rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization. Hopefully this is the start my thesis playing out.
-
赞同IQE被市场忽视的观点
@yianisz 写得很好！读起来很有趣。我同意 $IQE 在很大程度上仍被市场忽视的观点。
英文原文
@yianisz Great writeup! Was a fun read. Agreed on the point $IQE is largely undiscovered.
-
回顾对 $CRCL 在 54 美元时的看好观点，今日该股大涨 20%。
我喜欢回顾历史，看看评论区经得住时间考验的程度。 $CRCL 今天上涨 20%。https://t.co/E47K80CRG4 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 我在 $54 美元时非常、非常喜欢 $CRCL。 估值已完全重置回 120 亿美元市值。 当价格在 150-200 美元时，大家都在抢购，但在 54 美元时，这里却门可罗雀。美元稳定币(USDC)供应量仍超过 700 亿美元，我预计稳定币的使用将继续增长。https://t.co/R2Habycf7d
英文原文
I love going back in history to see how well the comment section ages. $CRCL up 20% today. https://t.co/E47K80CRG4
-
分析某以色列公司财务数据，认为其被严重低估。
@JohnPenisini 是的，我仔细研究过了。看起来被严重低估。 总资产1.34亿美元，市值1.54亿美元，60%利润率下的指引为7600万美元，负债-2970万美元。 不知道为什么市场不喜欢像 $ETOR 或 $VLN 这样的以色列公司。
英文原文
@JohnPenisini Yep I went through it. Looks deeply discounted. Total assets $134m, MC is $154m, $76m guidance off 60% margins, -$29.7m liabilities. Idk why markets dislike Israeli companies like $ETOR or $VLN
-
分析IQE作为LITE供应商的重估潜力及高风险。
也许可以在当前价位关注 $IQE，作为 $LITE 的供应商，其市值仅为 1.5 亿美元。 其在台湾最接近的同行——台湾光宝科技（Landmark Optoelectronics）已被重新评级至 38.5 亿美元（IQE 拥有更多产能，但受债务及传统业务拖累）。 如果他们出售台湾业务（传统板块）并用所得偿还债务，可能会迎来强劲的重估。 话虽如此，这大概也是风险最高的选择。
英文原文
Maybe $IQE at these levels as a $LITE supplier at a $150M MC. Their closest friend over in Taiwan landmark optoelectronics was rerated to $3.85B (IQE has more capacity but debt, and legacy segments dragging it down). If they sell their Taiwan segment (legacy) then use that to clear the debt might be re-rated strongly. That being said this probably carries the most risk.
-
对比Landmark与IQE，认为Landmark去杠杆后估值有望重估。
是的，Landmark 是个很棒的名字！基本上就像用于 800G/1.6T 光模块的磷化铟(InP)外延片的 $IQE，但没有资产负债表拖累。 Landmark 是一家市值 37.5 亿美元的公司，而 $IQE 是一家市值 1.35 亿美元的公司，但 IQE 的生产能力要大得多（不过纯度不如前者）。 所以我觉得，如果他们能摆脱所有债务和杂乱业务的拖累，估值可能会大幅重估。
英文原文
Yes landmark is an amazing name! Basically like $IQE for InP epiwafer for 800/1.6t transcievers but without the balance sheet drag. Landmark's a $3.75B MC company while $IQE is a $135m company but IQE Is significantly larger production capacity (not as pure play though) So just felt like if they got rid of all the debt and random business drag, it could re-rate quite a bit.
-
博主因熟悉光子供应链，引入IQE作为潜在赢家观察。
不完全是！我只是对光子学(Photonics)供应链比能源领域更熟悉一些，所以我喜欢挑选潜在的赢家。 只是想像引入 $AXTI 那样把 $IQE 纳入考量，这样如果结果不错，我三个月后就能发一篇“你们听我的了吗(Anon)？”的帖子。
英文原文
Not exactly! I'm just a tad more familiar with photonic supply chains than I am with energy so I like picking potential winners. Just wanted to introduce $IQE into the equation like i did with $AXTI, so I could do a "Did you Listen Anon?" post 3 months later if it turns out well.
-
博主表示仅关注IQE在AI数据中心光子学领域的业务。
@AtlasShrug1 是的，他们也有其他业务板块，但我个人只关心用于人工智能数据中心(AI DC)的光子学(Photonics)领域，针对 $IQE。https://t.co/Rvt8RjzTD8
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 Yeah they have other segments too, but I personally would only care about photonics for AI DC usage for $IQE. https://t.co/Rvt8RjzTD8
-
IQE或售台业务去债，代工业务支撑估值，对西方供应链关键。
$IQE 在伦敦证券交易所(LSE)上市。这基本上是在赌他们会出售台湾业务以摆脱债务。然后他们的化合物半导体外延片(Compound Semiconductor Epiwafer)代工业务将强力支撑估值（我认为只要他们理顺财务，估值就会如此）。风险在于未来可能出现的过度稀释。但无论如何，它对西方供应链至关重要。
英文原文
$IQE is on LSE. It's basically a bet that they sell their Taiwan operations to get out of debt. Then their epiwafer foundry hard carries valuation (which I think it will as long as they figure out finances). Risk is future excessive dilution. But either way it's incredibly important to Western supply chains.
-
看好$NBIS明年Q4业绩爆发，预判中期选举后市场上涨。
$NBIS 向 80 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR) 的重大扩张将在第四季度财报中体现，所以可能是明年二月？它仍然是我最看好的多头标的之一，但目前正处于静默建设阶段。预计今年年底及中期选举后增速将加快。我认为从近期历史来看，中期选举后指数 100% 上涨，而选举前约为 60%。
英文原文
$NBIS major ramp up to $8B ARR is q4 earnings so maybe Feb of next year? Still one of my favorite longs but right now is just silent buildout phase. Should see acceleration toward end of this year and past midterms. I think in recent history post-midterm, 100% of the time indexes went up. And pre-midterm was around 60%.
-
CRDO等股转为CPO标的，虽仍看好但失去龙头溢价。
我去年持有的许多铜多头头寸，如 $CRDO 和 $ALAB，今年最终都变成了纯粹的光子学/共封装光学(CPO)头寸。我对它们进行波段交易，并认为它们仍然是很好的多头标的，但像 $CRDO 这样的股票会失去那种赋予其溢价的默认领导地位，正如你现在在 $LITE 上看到的那样。
英文原文
Lot of my copper longs last year like $CRDO and $ALAB ended up becoming pure play photonics/cpo positions this year. I swing trade them and think they’re still great longs but stocks like $CRDO lose that de-facto leadership status that gives them premiums as you see with $LITE now.
-
麦格理预测三星和SK海力士利润激增，前瞻市盈率极低，估值极具吸引力。
我对三星和SK海力士的预测感到震惊——$EWY？ 麦格理(Macquarie)预测三星电子(Samsung Electronics)将实现： 2026财年：约2108亿美元（较此前172.1万亿韩元增长73%） 2027财年：约3337亿美元（较260.1万亿韩元增长82%） SK海力士(Sk Hynix)： 2026财年：约1905亿美元（较272.2万亿韩元增长58%） 2027财年：约3128亿美元（较447万亿韩元增长77%） （这些数字很大程度上取决于汇率换算）。 如果这些预测成真： SK海力士2026年和2027年的营业利润总和几乎接近其当前市值。 麦格理报告将其预测的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)大幅下调至荒谬的水平：三星到2027年为3.7倍，SK海力士到2027年为2.2倍。 这感觉不真实，但这确实是麦格理研究部的正式预测。
英文原文
My mind is blown on Samsung and Sk Hynix projections - $EWY? Macquarie projects Samsung Electronics to make: FY2026: ~$210.8 billion USD (+73% increase from prior KRW 172.1 trillion) FY2027: ~$333.7 billion USD (+82% from KRW 260.1 trillion) Sk Hynix: FY2026: ~$190.5 billion USD (+58% from KRW 272.2 trillion) FY2027: ~$312.8 billion USD (+77% from KRW 447 trillion) (Numbers heavily depend on conversion rates). If these projections are true: The operating profit from SK Hynix from 2026+2027 are close to eclipsing it's current marketcap. Macquarie's report slashed their projected forward P/E ratios to an absurd 3.7x by 2027 for Samsung and 2.2x for SK Hynix for 2027. It feels unreal but these are genuine projections from Macquarie's desk.
-
认为VLN因资产占比高被低估，指出市场折价以色列股，关注今日财报。
我仍然认为 $VLN 被低估，因为其资产占市值(Market Cap)的大部分。大约1.1亿美元对比1.58亿美元，你基本上是以4800万美元的价格买入了一家无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semi)公司？ 但出于某种原因，市场严重折价以色列公司，比如 $ETOR。即使在 Etoro 财报发布后，股价也 barely 恢复。 让我们看看今天即将发布的财报。
英文原文
I still feel like $VLN is undervalued just because assets make up majority of MC. It’s like ~$110M vs $158M and you’re basically buying a fabless semi for $48m? But markets heavily discount Israeli companies for some reason like $ETOR. Even after Etoro earnings it barely recovered. We’ll see in their upcoming earnings today.
-
AXTI波动剧烈需控仓，是AI光子学瓶颈环节标的。
@SL2056 是的，$AXTI 每天波动 20%，这就是为什么我说在入场交易前建立自己的确信度并正确控制仓位规模非常重要。如果你能承受这种波动性，我认为 AXT 是 AI 基础设施建设中光子学领域的一个很好的瓶颈环节标的。
英文原文
@SL2056 Yeah $AXTI moves 20% a day which is why I say it’s really important to build conviction yourself before you enter a trade + size positions correctly. If you can stomach the volatility, I think AXT is a great bottleneck play for the AI buildout with photonics
-
AVAV和CVX作为战争地缘政治对冲，战时看涨，和平时可能跑输。
$AVAV 和石油股如 $CVX 是战争的对冲工具。如果美国与伊朗最终开战（正如委内瑞拉突然入侵所示，可能随时发生），这两个板块可能会上涨。如果没打起来，那么其他板块可能会表现更好，而国防股可能会表现不佳。这是一种地缘政治对冲，所以我认为确实如此。
英文原文
$AVAV and Oil like $CVX are hedges for war. If US and Iran end up fighting (can be anytime as seen with the sudden invasion of Venezulea) those two sectors would likely go up. If they don’t, then other sectors would likely outperform and defense might underperform. This is a geopolitical hedge so yes IMO.
-
作者认为基本面重于图表，因预期营业利润超苹果而继续买入SK海力士。
我喜欢告诉那些画图表的人，股票更多关乎基本面和催化剂。例如，尽管 $SKHYNIX 在过去一年上涨了300%且市值达5000亿美元，我仍在买入，因为其营业利润（约1560亿美元）预计明年将超越 $AAPL（3.8万亿美元）。显然，超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的收入比内存（除非其成为结构性需求）更具持续性。但鉴于印钞规模之大，即使前一天上涨了10%，我也能自信地买入。
英文原文
I like to tell all the people who draw charts that stocks are more about fundamentals and catalysts. I'm still buying into SK Hynix for example even after the 300% 1Y rise at $500B because their operating income (~$156B) is projected to surpass $AAPL ($3.8T) next year. Obviously hyperscaler revenues are more persistent vs. memory (unless it becomes structural). But just given the sheer amount of money printing, can just be confident to buy even after a 10% increase the previous day.
-
建议以低IV买入$XLU做多美国电网。
@Investmnt_Eagle 我依然这么认为！理想的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)应为14-16%，而不是你关注的那些升水期权所对应的~21-23% IV。重点是 $XLU 是对美国电力/电网未来两年的方向性做多（受益于低 IV）。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle I still think so! Ideal would be 14-16% IV not the elevated strikes you're looking at ~21-23% IV. Point was $XLU was a directional long on US power/grid over the next two years (that benefits from low IV).
-
指出IBKR交易数据虽被夸大，但规模依然可观。
@Veeshalnarote12 @BlessedFrLife $IBKR 的交易数据略有夸大。但核心观点依然成立，即其规模相当可观。
英文原文
@Veeshalnarote12 @BlessedFrLife $IBKR inflates trades a bit. But point still stands that it's a decent amount though
-
感谢关注，认为OpenClaw是$RPI的长期催化剂。
@bulldogcapital9 谢谢！看到关于 $RPI 的新闻报道真的很有趣。希望 OpenClaw 能成为一个良好的长期催化剂。https://t.co/rTgP8DNDZn
英文原文
@bulldogcapital9 Thanks! It's really fun to see the news coverage around $RPI. Hope OpenClaw serves as a good long term catalyst. https://t.co/rTgP8DNDZn
-
质疑SNDK仓位风险，认为不确定性将助推反弹。
@ZeroKnowledger_ 他们的 $SNDK 仓位会被核平吗？完全不知道，但这只会为反弹行情火上浇油。
英文原文
@ZeroKnowledger_ They’re going to get their positions nuked on $SNDK? Zero clue, just adds fuel to the fire for the rally
-
RPI逆势上涨，软件与网络安全板块表现疲软
@otium33 也许吧，但即使被媒体贴上“迷因股(meme stock)”标签的 $RPI 今天也上涨了 13.6%。 看起来软件和网络安全(cybersecurity)等其他主题表现不佳 https://t.co/wUISCQP55H
英文原文
@otium33 Maybe, but even the media branded “meme stock” $RPI is up 13.6% today. Seems like other themes like software and cybersecurity aren’t doing too well https://t.co/wUISCQP55H
-
SK海力士估值极低且利润超苹果
@arstr9876 是的，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)约为4倍，市值达5000亿美元。SK海力士(SK Hynix)预计明年营业利润将达1600亿美元，这超过了苹果($AAPL，市值3.8万亿美元)的水平。
英文原文
@arstr9876 Yeah it’s forward p/e is like 4 at a $500b mc. sk hynix is projected to do $160B operating income next year, which is more than $AAPL ($3.8T company)
-
驳斥媒体将$RPI误读为迷因股，重申其受AI需求驱动的实质基本面逻辑。
媒体将“迷因股(Meme Stock)”$RPI 的涨幅归为此类，该股本月已上涨 46.12% 并守住收益。硅谷人士都穿龙虾(Lobster)服装时，你是否曾思考过 OpenClaw 需求是否存在结构性变化？ 《每日电讯报》今天发布了一篇关于树莓派(Raspberry Pi, $RPI) 的新文章。虽然我很感激被称为“AI 极客(AI Nerd)”…… 但我不理解为什么他们共同试图将树莓派框架化为“迷因股(Meme stock)？” 整个论点(Thesis) 是围绕 OpenClaw 变体作为首选硬件带来的总可寻址市场(TAM) 扩张。 在财务方面，论点在于如果囤货持续，收入数字如何能从预期的“14% 增长”增加到“适度的 48-55%”。 我原始论点的直接引用是：这将是“反转的顺风(tailwind for a reversal)”，且“收入应受益于需求增加”。 这是逐字引用的。 我不理解像《金融时报》这样的媒体机构如何能从上述内容 -> 变成从未说过的虚假评论。 对于《金融时报》：他们插入了关于“可被框架化为对立面(big shorts)的大空头”的虚假评论。 对于《每日电讯报》：他们插入了诸如“对公司本身的喜爱而非财务表现或潜力”的虚假评论。 我不确定大型媒体机构为何不被要求更高的标准，却能随意捏造评论？ 再次强调，$AAPL Mac Mini 作为 AI 编排(AI orchestration)硬件的囤货不会对苹果收入（作为一家 3.7 万亿美元市值的公司）造成显著影响。 然而，这对像 $RPI 这样的公司是实质性的(material)。 这就是核心论点。 OpenClaw 和 AI 智能体/集群(AI agents/swarms) 驱动树莓派销量的增加（更重要的是，作为长期催化剂），这可能导致收入预测超预期(beat) + 重估(re-rating)。 多家机构包括添加捏造评论的框架极其不真诚(disingenuous)。 这是一个基本的、高度具体的论点，但多家媒体机构只是决定捏造完全随机的内容，将树莓派描绘为迷因股。
英文原文
The media labeled “Meme Stock” $RPI has held its gains, and is up 46.12% this month. Ever stop to wonder if there’s something structural with OpenClaw demand if everyone in Silicon Valley is dressing up in Lobster Costumes? https://t.co/IkR5BXn2dd
-
Yamamura因AI光子业务及股息利好大涨，估值仍低于账面价值。
顺便一提，这是日本最大的瓶罐制造商(Bottlemaker)。在我今天的帖子发布后，股价上涨了20.3%。> 看到类似的平行案例：Toto（马桶制造商）对应存储芯片，而Yamamura（瓶罐制造商）对应光子学(Photonics)。即使在此涨幅之后，其市值仍为2.95亿美元，低于3.6亿美元的账面价值。看来市场正在意识到上周宣布的结构性股息，从而为股东释放价值。此外，你还免费获得了一个同比增长91%的高增长、高利润率AI部门。
英文原文
This is Japan’s largest Bottlemaker by the way. Up 20.3% after my post today. > Seeing parallels like Toto the toilet maker with Memory vs. Yamamura the bottle maker with Photonics. Even after the increase, it’s still trading at $295M vs. $360M book value. Looks like markets is waking up to the structural dividend announcement last week, unlocking value to shareholders. On top of that you get a high growth, high margin 91% Y/Y AI segment for free.
-
作者按战略价值排序光子学供应链个股，并分享个人仓位偏好。
$AXTI 是我的首选，仅因其在光子学(Photonics)供应链中的战略价值。$LITE 紧随其后，若展望两年后则严重被低估，但目前看来略显超买。$COHR 大概排第三，$AAOI 排第四，作为另一只潜力股(Moonshot)，其凭借 Maia 和 Trainium 的放量获得了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资质。话虽如此，我个人不喜欢在 $AXTI 这类小盘股上配置过高仓位，尽管 $COHR 排名第三，但我对其持仓比例最高。
英文原文
$AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains. Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended. Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualifications just for Maia and Trainium ramp. That being said don’t personally like high allocations in smaller stocks like $AXTI, highest might be in $COHR despite it being #3
-
指出公司市值低于净资产，视股息为买入信号。
@pulseandpen 我的意思是，即使（资产）增加了15%，其市值(Market Cap)仍约为2.7亿美元，而资产为3.6亿美元，这甚至还没有计入他们的其他业务。所以基本上，清算公司(Liquidation Company)将返还3.6亿美元。我只是需要股息(Dividends)作为绿灯信号。
英文原文
@pulseandpen I mean even if it increased 15% it still trades at like $270m MC vs $360m in assets, not even factoring in any of their other businesses. So basically, liquidation company would be returning $360m. Just needed dividends for the green light.
-
博主分享新发现的山村公司研究结果。
@sedonaroxx 山村(Yamamura)是我在查看引用的帖子后刚刚发现的一家新公司。 我只是在发布关于它的研究结果。
英文原文
@sedonaroxx Yamamura is a new company I just discovered after looking at the quoted post. I’m just publishing my findings on it
-
当前股价隐含免费买入，结构性股息将返还价值。
价值被保留在公司内部（囤积）。 但市场可能错过的最大信号是结构性股息（Structural Dividends），它将价值返还给股东。 因此，以当前价格来看，这看起来像是你免费买下了这家公司，然后等待价值随时间返还。
英文原文
Value was kept inside the company (hoarding). But the biggest signal markets probably missed was the structural dividends to return value back to shareholders. So at current prices, it looks like you’re buying the company for free then waiting for value to be returned over time
-
山村玻璃估值极低且光子业务高增，股息提升确认价值解锁。
仔细研究了一下：山村玻璃（TYO: 5210）是个大牛股。你基本上是在免费买入这家企业？其光子学部门的光通信盖（optical communication caps）业务同比增长91%。你仅支付2.4亿美元就买到了一家销售额5亿美元、实际账面价值（工厂、设备、现金）超3.6亿美元且拥有快速增长的AI数据中心光子学部门的公司。此前这被视为价值陷阱，但 -> 他们将股息率提升至5.5%，这是价值已解锁的最大信号。而在2月12日的财报中，他们证实这是结构性的（并非市场担忧的一次性事件）。这基本上就是等待并放松心态？
英文原文
Took a closer look: Yamamura glass (TYO: 5210) is a banger. You’re basically buying the business for free? And their photonics division is growing 91% Y/Y for optical communication caps. You are paying $240M for a company that does $500M sales with $360M+ in actual book value (factories, equipment, cash) and a fast growing AI DC photonics division. Before this was a trap but -> they upped dividend amount to 5.5%, which is the biggest signal that value is now unlocked. And now from their Feb 12th earnings, they confirmed this was structural (not just one off that markets were fearing) It’s just wait and chill basically?
-
买入AI股是对抗AGI的最佳对冲，存储处周期中段，光子学处起点。
@dubiousnoob 在我看来，对抗通用人工智能(AGI)和通用AI的最佳对冲方式是买入AI股票，而不是持有现金。但这并不意味着太晚，相关标的将不断创出历史新高(ATH)。目前某些领域（如存储）正处于周期中段，而其他领域（如光子学）则处于周期起点。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob Best hedge against AGI and general AI is buying AI stocks, not sitting on cash imo. But not late, things will make new ATHs every day. Just in the middle of the cycle right now for some things (memory) and at the start of others (like photonics)