· 个股论点
涉及标的： $XLU
人们可能没意识到，在全球移动最缓慢的板块之一上，这一波行情有多大。 $XLU 一周涨幅 2.56%。 尤其是隐含波动率(IV)仅为 14% 的情况下。 自 2000 年以来，无聊的电力/电网板块（不含股息）的历史总回报率为 79.73%。 期权价值轻松实现两位数甚至三位数的增长。 话虽如此，如果 IV 偏高（例如超过 17.5%），建议避开。 我的论点（Thesis）是：由于降息、AI 推理（Inference）使用以及电网/电力现代化，这是全球最无聊板块的千载难逢的重估机会。 希望这是我论点开始兑现的开端。
Don’t think people realize how big this move on one of the Slowest. Moving. Sectors. In the world is. 2.56% in a week on $XLU. Especially if IV is 14%. All time return since year 2000 is 79.73% for the boring power/grid sector (not including dividends). Option values are easily up double digits or triple digits. That being said if IV is elevated (eg. above 17.5%) probably stay away. My thesis was this was the once in a lifetime rerating on the most boring sector in the world due to rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization. Hopefully this is the start my thesis playing out.