业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 459 条 · 第 6 / 10 页
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批评很多人事后改口看多，认为市场里绝大多数内容都只是噪音。
很多人把自己的仓位都投降掉了，这真的很让人火大。 因为现在 X 上那些到处发 doompost 的人，突然又都装作自己很看多 $MU 或 $EWY。 或者那些根本不懂自己在说什么的银行分析师。 这个地方 99.9% 的人之前都在看空，还发过诸如： - “KOPSI 要崩了” - “内存图表看起来像白银？” 或者类似： “氦气 / LNG / 石油要一路往下” 但现在 $SNDK 和存储股都接近历史高点（或者已经到了），大家又都假装自己从一开始就看多。 X 上绝大多数内容都只是极度噪音。
英文原文
It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions. Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $MU or $EWY. Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about. 99.9% of this place was bearish and posted: - “KOPSI Crash” - “Memory charts look like Silver?” Or something along the lines of “Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down. But now that $SNDK and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long. The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.
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认为光子超级周期已经到来，NVIDIA 正把 CPO / 硅光推到临界点，光正成为 AI 基建核心。
光子超级周期已经来了。 $NVDA 正在带头把下一次飞跃推向 CPO 和硅光。 而我们现在离拐点还很近，供应链里的瓶颈，比如 Soitec（$SOI）或者 Sivers（$SIVE），都已经开始显现。 “NVIDIA 对 Spectrum-X 交换机和 co-packaged optics 的更新，是一个重要时刻，说明硅光已经成为下一代 AI 基础设施的核心。” 尽管系统扩展长期依赖铜互连，但公司现在已经把光子放到了未来平台的核心，包括 Vera Rubin Ultra。 这种转变预计将支撑越来越复杂的配置，比如 NVL576，以及未来像 Kyber NVL1152 这样的架构。” “Nvidia 已经在量产 Spectrum-X Photonics，也就是 co-packaged optics（CPO）以太网交换机。 公司还宣布了 Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand 交换机，它通过自有的 scale-out 互连，每秒可提供高达 800 Tb 的带宽。” 虽然铜依然重要，但它已经无法单独承受 AI 规模需求。 NVLink8 CPO 大概是最大的信号，因为 $NVDA 也把硅光带进了它的 scale-up NVLink 互连，而不仅仅是 scale-out 网络。 scale-out 的 CPO 现在 / 2026 年已经在出货，NVLink scale-up 的 CPO 也很快会到来。 范式已经改变，AI 基础设施的瓶颈现在正正式由“光”来解决。 市场只差时间去发现这些供应链中的瓶颈，然后再把它们计价进去。
英文原文
The Photonics Supercycle is here. $NVDA is spearheading the next leap into CPO & Silicon Photonics. And we’re only near the inflection point with chokepoints in the supply chains like Soitec ( $SOI ) or Sivers ( $SIVE ). “NVIDIA’s update on the Spectrum-X switch with co-packaged optics is an important moment, confirming that silicon photonics is central to next-generation AI infrastructure.” Despite a long-standing reliance on copper-based interconnects for scale-up systems, the company is now placing photonics at the core of its future platforms, including Vera Rubin Ultra. This transition is expected to support increasingly complex configurations, such as NVL576 and future architectures like Kyber NVL1152.” “Nvidia is already in production with Spectrum-X Photonics, which is co-packaged optics (CPO) Ethernet switch. The company also announced the Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand switch, which delivers up to 800 Tb per second of scale-out throughput using its proprietary scale-out interconnect” Although copper is important, it can no longer alone can no longer handle AI-scale demands. NVLink8 CPO is probably the biggest signal with $NVDA also bringing silicon photonics into its scale-up NVLink interconnect, not just scale-out networking. CPO for scale-out is shipping now/2026, CPO for NVLink scale-up arrives soon. The paradigm has shifted, and the bottleneck of AI infrastructure is now officially being solved by light. It’s only a matter of time before markets find these chokepoints in the supply chains. Then price them in.
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惊讶 Macronix 年初至今涨幅达到 201%，并关注其在 Q2 的重新定价。
@zephyr_z9 不得不说，考虑到宏观环境，我原本没想到 Macronix 的年初至今回报能到 201%。 它现在已经在碾压大盘了，我很好奇市场会在 Q2 怎么把它重新定价。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Nice! Personally wasn’t expecting 201% YTD from Macronix given macro. It’s smoking the market, curious to see how markets price it in q2
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认为股权稀释不可取，但至少发生在 270 亿美元的 META 合同之后。
@beauty_oe 没人会喜欢股权稀释。不过至少它是在和 $META 签下 270 亿美元合同之后发生的，这一点总算稍微没那么糟。
英文原文
@beauty_oe 株式の希薄化を喜ぶ人なんていない。ただ、少なくとも $META との270億ドルの契約の後に来たのがせめてもの救いだ。
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认为 270 亿美元 hyperscaler 合同加 37.5 亿美元可转债，优于直接做 60 亿美元 ATM 稀释。
@vaguelyliquid 没错，和 $META 签下 270 亿美元的超大规模云合同，再配一笔 37.5 亿美元的可转债发行…… 在各个层面上都比随便来个 60 亿美元 ATM 股权稀释要强得多。
英文原文
@vaguelyliquid Yes, $27B hyperscaler deal with $META into a $3.75B convertible notes offering.. Is vastly superior in every level to a random $6B ATM dilution.
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在与 META 达成 270 亿美元交易后，NBIS 推出 37.5 亿美元可转债融资。
最新消息：在与 $META 达成 270 亿美元的超大规模云累计交易之后。 $NBIS 推出拟议 37.5 亿美元可转债发行，用来资助后续建设。 市场认为这比直接股权 ATM 稀释强得多。 因为债务只有在……
英文原文
Just in: Following the new $27B Hyperscaler Cumulative Deal with $META. $NBIS launches a proposed $3.75B in convertible note offerings to fund the buildout. Markets view this as vastly superior to straight equity ATM dilutions. As the debt only converts to equity if the company successfully drives the stock price up past that high strike. More details for Nebius are likely to come soon.
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回顾自己去年就有 600%+ 的收益，今年则继续沿着同样路径提速。
谢谢，恭喜！很多人看到我今年 500%+ 的年初至今收益，就以为只是因为我在 X 上比较出名。 但我去年就已经有 600%+ 的收益了，来源包括 $MSTR 从 50 美元涨到 500 美元、$HOOD 从 15 美元涨到 100 美元以上、$RKLB 从 15 美元涨到 80 美元以上。 我现在只是把去年的节奏再快进一遍而已。
英文原文
Thanks congrats! A lot of people see my 500% YTD and think it’s only because I’m well known on X. My returns last year were 600%+ from $MSTR rallies from $50 to $500, $HOOD rally from $15 to $100+, $RKLB rally from $15 to $80+. I’m just speed running it this year because of AI bottlenecks and identifying where hyperscaler capex is going before anyone else.
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回应批评，承认错误但强调整体准确率较高，高信念股是核心持仓
你说得对，我已经单独发了帖子详细说明我预测错误的每一只股票。 我也提到了几十只股票。 重点是：我通常正确的时候比错误的时候多。而我高信念的股票，是最大仓位。 $FLY实际上是2027年中量级预测搭配$NOC，有时候它们需要时间才能实现。 你说得对，我在$META上亏了很多钱。但通过他们的财报电话会议弥补回来了。 $WLAC还没上市，所以不太确定你在这里指的是什么。 但就像$NBIS（高信念股）一样，我最初发帖时在$80-$90，现在它们确实需要时间来实现。
英文原文
You’re right, and I’ve made a separate posts already detailing every single name I’ve gotten wrong. I also mention dozens of stocks as well. The point is: I typically get more things right than wrong. And my high conviction picks, are highest concentration. $FLY was actually 2027 for medium lift with $NOC though, sometimes they need time to play out. You’re right, I lost a lot on $META. But made up for it from their earnings call. $WLAC hasn’t even IPOed yet, so not quite sure what you’re calling out there on though. But as seen with $NBIS (high conviction), I originally posted in the $80s-$90s and they do need time to play out.
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推测消息发生在 META 合同之后。
@Wind56083722900 大概是在 $META 合同之后。 感谢 @lesantcho9306 提供来源。 https://t.co/HVZJsgoJJ4
英文原文
@Wind56083722900 Probably after $META deal. Shoutout to @lesantcho9306 for the source. https://t.co/HVZJsgoJJ4
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报道花旗开始覆盖 Nebius，给出 169 美元目标价。
刚刚：花旗开始覆盖 Nebius（$NBIS），并给出 169 美元目标价。 据 Bloomberg Terminal。 https://t.co/y9cYcS6SgK
英文原文
Just in: Citibank initiates coverage in Nebius < $NBIS > and assigns at PT of $169. Per Bloomberg Terminal https://t.co/y9cYcS6SgK
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认为市场前瞻定价，META 对 NBIS 的合同从 30 亿美元扩大到 270 亿美元是强信号。
@daniel_koss 对，但市场是向前看的。 他们最初和 $META 的合同只有 30 亿美元，现在已经扩到累计 270 亿美元…… 这对 Nebius 来说是一个巨大的信心信号，说明它正成为 AI 基础设施的首选。
英文原文
@daniel_koss Yep, but markets are forward looking. Originally their deal with $META was $3B but it’s 9’xed to $27B cumulative… This is a huge signal of confidence to Nebius as the infra of choice for AI.
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日文说明 META 给 NBIS 的累计 AI 支出合同从 30 亿美元增至 270 亿美元。
@yasutaketin 来自 $META 的惊人巨额合同！最初是 30 亿美元，但现在已经增加到累计 270 亿美元。 我对未来的 $NBIS 充满强烈信心。
英文原文
@yasutaketin $META からとんでもない巨額契約がきた！元々は30億ドルだったけど、なんと270億ドルに増額。 今後の $NBIS には強い確信を持ってる。
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说虽然 NBIS 和数据中心股之前经历了剧烈回撤，但终于开始兑现。
@soulbiri1 对，$NBIS 和数据中心股票前几个月经历了非常惨烈的回撤。 但很高兴我在去年底对 Nebius 的信念，开始慢慢兑现了。尤其是在新的超大规模云合同和 $NVDA 资金支持之后。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah, there was a brutal few month drawdown with $NBIS and datacenter stocks. But glad the conviction in Nebius from late last year is starting to pay off. Especially with the new hyperscaler deals and $NVDA funding
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宣布 META 与 NBIS 签下 270 亿美元累计 AI 开支合同，Nebius 距 ARR 目标更近。
刚刚：$META 与 $NBIS 签下了一份高达 270 亿美元的累计 AI 开支合同。 Nebius 是我最看好的 neocloud AI 基础设施数据中心标的。 很高兴管理层正在朝着 70-90 亿美元 ARR 目标执行。 Nebius 盘前上涨 14.79%，至 129.66 美元。 https://t.co/RaaDWm1if0
英文原文
Just in: $META signs an enormous $27 Billion cumulative AI spend contract with $NBIS. Nebius was my top Neocloud AI Infrastruture DC pick. Glad management is executing toward their $7-9B ARR target. Nebius is up 14.79% premarket to $129.66. https://t.co/RaaDWm1if0
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用日文回应伊朗局势恐慌，认为媒体把内存股卖盘讲得过头了。
你说得完全对！伊朗局势把媒体搞得到处都是恐慌情绪。 但这些担忧都被夸大了。那些把内存相关股票卖掉的人，看的是煽情媒体标题（只是噪音），而不是（真正重要的）营业利润前景。
英文原文
@beauty_oe 本当にその通りですね！イラン情勢の影響で、メディアが至る所で恐怖を煽っています。 しかし、そうした懸念はどれも大げさすぎます。メモリ関連企業の株を売り払った人たちは、（本当に重要な）営業利益の見通しではなく、センセーショナルなメディアの見出し（単なるノイズ）を見ていたのです。
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相比单家公司，更担心 EWY 的汇率问题，但仍看好 SK Hynix 和三星带动回报。
@NicholasBardy 我对 $EWY 的汇率问题，比对单个公司的担心还多。 不过不管怎样，我还是会期待 SK 海力士 / 三星大幅贡献回报。
英文原文
@NicholasBardy I’m more worried about currency exchange rates on $EWY than I am on individual companies. But regardless I’d expect sk hynix/samsung to heavily carry returns
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回顾被恐慌卖掉内存股的人，强调 NAND、DRAM 涨价和利润才是决定长期走势的关键。
想象一下那些卖掉自己内存仓位的人。 因为“氦气”就把 SK 海力士、Sandisk 和 Micron 卖掉？ SK 海力士：1 日 +7.03% $SNDK：1 周 +31.75% $MU：1 周 +19.66% 三星：1 日 +2.83% 看看 NAND、DRAM 的涨价，那些都远远高于预期。 而且公司也明确说没有任何实质性影响。 媒体 doompost 和恐慌盘会驱动短期价格。 但经营利润决定长期股价。
英文原文
Imagine all the people who sold their memory positions. From SK Hynix, Sandisk, and Micron because of “Helium”? Sk Hynix: +7.03% 1D $SNDK: +31.75% 1W $MU: +19.66% 1W Samsung: +2.83% 1D Look at NAND, DRAM hikes, which were all way beyond estimates. As well as company statements that there was zero material effect. Media doomposters and panic sellers. drives short term prices. Operating profit drives long stock prices.
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认为内存股因创纪录营业利润而极度看多，重估空间还很大。
对，内存股因为创纪录的营业利润，真的非常看多。 如果按牛市情景估算，到 2028 年 SK 海力士能赚 4000 亿美元营业利润，而它的市值也只有 4000 亿美元，那重新定价空间肯定还很大。 市场之所以还没给更高溢价，是因为……
英文原文
Yes, memory names are incredibly bullish due to record operating profits. Well if SK Hynix makes $400b in operating profit in a bull case by 2028. And their MC is $400B. There’s probably quite a way to go for re-rating. Markets aren’t giving a premium because they fear memory prices are a commodity cycle, but I disagree since demand is now structural. Pricing isn’t, but margins are likely to remain high.
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对比美国能源官员和 Reddit 里的原油多头，调侃大家都在喊油价上行。
美国能源部长：“美国正在采取‘很多措施’来缓解油价上涨。” 内政部长：“特朗普政府讨论过在原油期货市场上交易，作为帮助抑制原油飙升的一种策略。” 与此同时，Reddit 上的人在喊：“该全仓做多 150-200 美元的油了。”
英文原文
US Energy Secretary: “U.S. Takes ‘Many Actions’ to Mitigate Rising Oil Price” Interior Secretary: “The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices” Meanwhile on Reddit: “Time to full port into Oil futures” I’m not sure how retail investors can see statements from the US Gov wanting to keep oil prices low… And still full port their account the other direction with crude oil?
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年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。
只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月，粉丝增长到 10 万+： - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者（涨了 4 倍+） - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制，针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久，这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子，如果看过，抱歉？ - 预测了韩国市场波动上升，并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站，以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师，围绕我那篇关于 Soitec（$SOI）的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者，比如 Gold Reserve，而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合，结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道！ 我其他很多 thesis 帖，比如 $LITE，也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射，以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷！ 短短两个月里！我喜欢保持谦虚，但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是，这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播，几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么，也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。
英文原文
Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.
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认为 IQE 涨了 70% 但仍被 legacy drag 压制，而 Landmark 等更纯粹的同业市值更高。
自从我发帖之后，$IQE 已经涨了大约 70%。 它是全球最大的 InP epifab 之一。 不过，$IQE 身上有太多历史包袱。 因此，像 Landmark 这样更小、纯粹的同类公司，市值都到了 42 亿美元，而 $IQE 还在低估值里交易。 既然它拥有巨大的反应器潜在产能，而且市值只有约 2.5 亿美元，那它真正需要做的只有： 去掉拖累。重组清债。把产能重心转向 AI。 而 CTO 终于出来重申了我关于光子的 thesis： “对于 InP 来说，这意味着 6 英寸晶圆。四年多前，IQE 就是第一个展示 6 英寸 InP 技术的公司，因为他们很早就意识到了这点。 IQE 已经展示了高速度光器件在 6 英寸晶圆上所需的纯度、均匀性和重复性。 IQE 已经准备好帮助推动下一波 AI 硬件和数据中心创新。” 虽然这看起来像一篇很普通的营销稿，但这正是他们要重新被定价成一家十亿美元级公司的 thesis。 更多行业高管应该去听市场的声音。 风险当然还在，尤其是重组层面。 但现在该看管理层能不能成功执行，并把重点放在 AI / 光子上，而不是历史业务。 不过，这种明确表态，正是我个人愿意承担风险的原因，因为这说明他们正在朝正确方向走。
英文原文
$IQE is up ~70% since I’ve posted. This is one of the largest InP Epifabs in the world. However, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting $IQE. And as a result, smaller pure play peers like Landmark sit at $4.2 Billion MC while $IQE trades at depressed valuations. With massive reactor latent capacity, and a ~$250M MC, the only thing they needed to do: Cut Drag. Restructure to clear debt. Focus capacity toward AI. And the CTO finally went out to reiterate my thesis focusing on photoics: “For InP, that means 6-inch wafers. IQE was the first to demonstrate 6-inch InP technology more than four years ago, having recognised this need early. IQE has shown the purity, uniformity and repeatability needed for high-speed optical devices on 6-inch wafers IQE is primed to help enable the next wave of AI hardware and data centre innovation.” Although this looks like a bland marketing post, this is the thesis they need to focus on to be re-rated as a billion dollar company. More industry executives should listen to markets. The risks are obviously present with restructuring. But now it’s up to management to successfully execute and put focus on AI/photonics, not legacy segments. However, this is the risk I’m personally willing to take, as clear statements like these means they’re heading down the right direction.
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为光子板块一周大跌通常会换来后续新高。
@FuckElon54528 光子板块这周刚经历了大跌，$LITE 跌到 550 美元，$AAOI 也跌到 83 美元。 这种回调出现后，通常后面就会冲出历史新高。
英文原文
@FuckElon54528 Photonics just had major red days this week, $LITE crashed to $550 and $AAOI dipped to $83. When corrections happen like that it usually leads to ATHs after
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回看自己在 X 上的大部分一周收益都为正，并列出多个强势持仓。
我刚刚跳出自己的小圈子看了一眼。 X 上大部分人的状态都是： - 组合一片深红。 - 对着 1 周图发 doompost。 - 在担心原油。 而我大多数个股的一周回报，好像都还是绿的？ $AXTI +46.9% $SOI +48.59% $NBIS +29.59% $IQE +27.92% $TSEM +13.99% 诸如此类……也许只是运气？
英文原文
Just looked outside my little bubble. Majority of folks on X are: - posting deep red portfolios. - doomposting 1W charts - fearing about oil Feels like most of my individuals stock 1W returns are way in the green? $AXTI up +46.9% $SOI up +48.59% $NBIS up +29.59% $IQE up +27.92% $TSEM up +13.99% And so on… maybe luck?
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Anduril 获得 200 亿美元合同，对 PLTR 等整合型供应链伙伴有利，但对大型下游伙伴提振较小。
Anduril 获得了美国战争部授予的累计 200 亿美元合同。 这对 $PLTR、$KRKNF、$SPIR、$ACHR 以及其他供应链 / 集成合作伙伴是利好消息。 而像 $ORCL、$AMD、$NVDA 这种更大的合作方，拿到的顺风可能没那么多。 “Anduril……获得了一份固定价格合同，累计总额 200 亿美元，用于整合当前和未来的商业解决方案，包括自家的开放架构、AI 驱动的 Lattice 套件、集成硬件、数据、计算基础设施以及技术支持服务。”
英文原文
Andruil $20 Billion USD cumulative total contract awarded by US Department of War. Positive news for $PLTR, $KRKNF, $SPIR, $ACHR and other supply chain/integration partners. Larger partners from $ORCL, $AMD, and $NVDA are less likely to get much of a tailwind. “Andruil… was awarded a firm-fixed-price contract with a cumulative total of $20,000,000,000 to consolidate current and future commercial solutions, including the proprietary, open-architecture, AI-enabled Lattice suite, integrated hardware, data, computer infrastructure, and technical support services”
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EWY 的 IV 交易成功后，自己转而看多韩国内存股，认为利润会压过宏观恐慌。
EWY 的 IV 交易是成功的。韩国指数的隐含波动率从 32% IV 上升到了 46-48%。 现在它更像是对 SK 海力士 / 三星内存的方向性做多。 Q1 NAND 价格上调了 100%+，三星据说 Q2 又再提了 100%+。DRAM 价格也远远超出预期。 氦气 / 石油 / LNG 的担忧目前被夸大了，所以我还会继续看多韩国内存板块。 经营利润最终会压过任何宏观恐慌。
英文原文
IV $EWY trade was successful. Volatility of the Korean Index went from 32% IV -> 46-48%. Now it's more of a directional long on memory from SK Hynix/Sasmung. NAND prices hiked up 100%+ Q1 and Samsung reportedly jacked up 100%+ again Q2. DRAM prices also hiked way past expectations. Helium/Oil/LNG fears are overblown currently so I'm staying long on Korean memory sector. Operational income should blow away any macro fears.
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根据 WSJ 关于伊朗海雷的报道，认为海底防御板块将获得更多关注和合同。
WSJ：伊朗海雷是它最强大的武器之一。 “水雷一直是美国海军面对过最具破坏性的武器之一。” 现在更多注意力正被投向水下防御板块。 像 $KRKNF、$OPTT、$CODA 这类在 X 上很热门、用于声呐和反水雷应用的海洋防御公司，可能会获得更多投资者关注，甚至拿到防务合同。 尤其当美国媒体周期开始聚焦霍尔木兹海峡下的水雷时。
英文原文
WSJ: Iran’s Sea Mines Are One of Its Most Powerful Weapons “Mines have been among the most destructive weapons that the U.S. Navy has faced” More attention is now being poured into the Underwater defense sector. Ocean defense names such as $KRKNF, $OPTT, and $CODA that are popular on X for sonar and mine neutralization applications. May finally see more investor attention and possible defense contracts. Especially as US media cycles focus on the mines beneath the Strait.
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回顾光子股涨幅，强调持有波动并关注基本面。
$AAOI 自 30 美元以来已上涨 4 倍。 如果你听了匿名者的建议，我做过研究（thesis）的每一个光子学（Photonics）名字，从 $AXTI 到 $LITE，都上涨了 2 倍、3 倍或 4 倍。 希望那些炒作“原油涨至 200 美元”或 $IREN “内部人抛售”的末日论者没有让你在 80 美元时恐慌性抛售你的头寸。 这就是为什么你要在波动中持有并关注底层基本面。 并非每家公司都能在一年内从 4.5 亿美元营收增长到 45 亿美元。
英文原文
$AAOI is now up 4x since $30. Every photonics name from $AXTI to $LITE I’ve done a thesis on increased 2x, 3x, or 4x if you listened anon? Hope the Crude Oil to $200 or $IREN troll “insider sales” doomposters didn’t make you panic sell your positions at $80. This is why you hold through volatility and look at underlying fundamentals. Not every company can go from 450m revenue to $4.5B in just one years time.
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展示做空原油逻辑下$JETS期权3小时内的盈利表现。
才过了3个小时，$JETS 的交易就涨了不少，哈哈。 隐含波动率(IV)为25%的情况下，实现了5.35%的波段收益。 永远要相信你的吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)、X散户以及Wallstreetbet指标。
英文原文
It’s only been 3 hours and the $JETS trade is up a lot LOL. 5.35% swing off 25% IV. Always trust in your Jim Cramer, X retail, and Wallstreetbet indicators. https://t.co/38poYZZRA0
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回顾 $CRCL 一个月翻倍，强调应关注基本面而非图表。
$CRCL 现在到了 109 美元。 Circle 自从我在 54 美元发帖以来，涨幅已超过 100% 至 109 美元…… 那是一个月前的事了。 我真的很喜欢回头看那些看跌的评论，声称它会“下跌 50%”或“图表看起来很丑”，所以最终会跌至 20 美元。 当 $CRCL 在 50 美元时，X 上的所有人都在看跌，但现在它回到 100 美元，人们又转为看多了。 市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者。 但最大的教训是：关注基本面，而不是图表。
英文原文
$CRCL is now at $109. Circle has increased more than 100% to $109... Since my post at $54. This was 1 month ago. I really love going back and seeing all the bearish comments claiming it would "Go down"50%" or "chart looks ugly" so it ends up at $20. Everyone on X was bearish on $CRCL at $50, but now that it's back at $100, people are bullish again. The market is the final arbiter of right and wrong. But the biggest lesson: Look at underlying fundamentals, not the chart.
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复盘今日持仓表现，VRT符合预期，LITE与COHR意外。
@InFoTheLongTerm 鉴于预测市场赔率，我原本预期今天会是 $VRT。$LITE 和 $COHR 的表现则令人意外。
英文原文
@InFoTheLongTerm I expected $VRT today given prediction market odds. $LITE and $COHR together came in as a surprise.
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期权因波动率扩张接近翻倍，预期IV与股价将同步上涨
@exitvalley 是的！我认为在我买入一些行权价(strikes)后，标的资产(underlying)实际上跌得更多，但看涨期权(calls)仅因波动率扩张就已接近翻倍。 而且我预计本周事件发生后，隐含波动率(IV)将进一步上升（同时标的股票也会上涨） https://t.co/TwCJrLo0Z3
英文原文
@exitvalley Yeah! I think the underlying actually dropped more after I bought some strikes but calls are close to double anyway off volatility expansion alone. And I expect IV to increase further after this week’s events (alongside underlying stock to go up) https://t.co/TwCJrLo0Z3
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博主回顾并炫耀其 $EWY 隐含波动率套利交易的成功表现。
天哪……这笔 $EWY 隐含波动率(IV)交易有多神？ 自3周前发帖以来，韩国指数波动率已从32%飙升至51%。 如果 $AAOI 翻倍我也不会太惊讶，但这笔对韩国波动率的押注简直传奇。 https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
英文原文
Holy… How goated was this $EWY IV trade? The South Korean Index volatility went from 32% -> 51% since posting 3 weeks ago. I’m not as impressed if $AAOI doubles but this call on South Korea’s volatility was legendary. https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
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博主更正 $RPI 涨幅数据，承认其表现严重滞后。
@leglock140448 我的错，$RPI 自上月发帖以来仅上涨 18.2%，并未翻倍。它是表现严重滞后的股票之一。https://t.co/Ww00UZhb3U
英文原文
@leglock140448 My bad $RPI is only up 18.2% since posting last month instead of doubling. One of the heavy underperformers. https://t.co/Ww00UZhb3U
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博主自嘲父母投资眼光更好，$PL涨幅远超其持有的$AXTI。
我爸妈其实是比我更好的投资者，哈哈。也许部分原因是基因？ 我爸一直告诉我他当时在$1.7时有多喜欢$PL。我并不太相信地理空间智能(geospatial intelligence)。但这只股票最终上涨了约16倍。 这会跑赢我的$AXTI收益。
英文原文
My parents are actually better investors than I am lol. Maybe part of it is genetics? My dad kept telling me how much he liked $PL back at $1.7. I didn’t really believe in geospatial intelligence. But the stock ended up going up like 16 times. Would have beaten my $AXTI returns.
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博主晒出501%收益，称持有了光子、存储及亚洲瓶颈环节的所有领涨股。
我碰巧持有了今年所有表现最好的个股： 从光子学领域的 $AXTI 和 $AAOI， 到存储领域的 $SNDK 和 SK 海力士， 再到亚洲瓶颈环节的 Nittobo、 Macronix 和 Unimicron。 所有持仓在两个月内均实现三位数回报。 年初至今收益率：501.38% 只是运气好吧？
英文原文
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?
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分享AXTI暴涨4倍收益，并乐享挖掘AI行业瓶颈。
@Veri_ta5321 随时欢迎！自从我发帖时的日内低点以来，$AXTI 已上涨近4倍！短短两个半月，这趟旅程真是疯狂。 我很享受像淘金一样挖掘整个AI行业的小型瓶颈环节。
英文原文
@Veri_ta5321 Anytime! $AXTI has increased close to 4x since intraday low when I posted! In just two and a half months, it’s been a crazy ride. Having a fun time gold mining for small bottlenecks of the entire AI industry.
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博主晒出AXTI持仓455%收益，并期待IQE表现。
@ryansfinance 谢谢！你肯定错过了 $AXTI，我的持仓收益已达 455%。 是的，希望 $IQE 接下来也能有积极表现！https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
英文原文
@ryansfinance Thanks! You missed out on $AXTI for sure, my positions are up like 455%. Yep hope to see something positive with $IQE next! https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
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博主回顾去年研究，庆幸精准预判英伟达投资及光模块股表现。
@invspoter 如果我能帮上忙，我很高兴！ 不过很高兴我去年在研究论文中精准预判了这一点。$NVDA 最终投资了 $LITE 和 $COHR。然后 $AAOI 今年也大幅上涨。https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
英文原文
@invspoter I'm happy if I was able to help! Glad I got this part spot on from my thesis last year though. $NVDA ended up investing in both of $LITE and $COHR. Then $AAOI ended up popping off this year. https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
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博主炫耀选股大幅跑赢大盘，部分持仓翻倍后回调。
@Investmnt_Eagle 哈哈，是的，我选的所有股票比如 $AAOI 和 $IQE 最近每天涨幅都在 20-40% 左右。$AXTI 和 $LITE 在本月翻倍后正在小憩调整。说实话，市场其他部分并没有玩得这么开心。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle LOL yeah all my picks like $AAOI and $IQE are up like 20-40% a day recently. $AXTI, $LITE have been taking a tiny rest after doubling this month. Rest of the market not having as much of a fun time tbh.
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博主分享期权大涨144%及XLU周涨幅示例
@Ngen704 我那些极度虚值(OTM)的看涨期权已经上涨了144%+。我刚才只是以接近平值(ITM)的行权价为例，来说明 $XLU 本周3%的涨幅 https://t.co/PhgmsJDz39
英文原文
@Ngen704 My very OTM calls are up 144%+ I was just sharing closer to ITM strike as an example of the 3% increase this week for $XLU https://t.co/PhgmsJDz39
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澄清讨论标的为AAOI，并提及此前成功预判AXTI涨幅。
@FractalVeritas 这里讨论的是 $AAOI，不是 $AXTI。不过我确实在 $AXTI 过去两个月上涨3倍之前就指出过它。
英文原文
@FractalVeritas Talking about $AAOI in this, not $AXTI. But I did point out $AXTI before it went up 3x in the last two months.
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博主指出此前看多的XLU期权一周大涨，波动罕见。
@annapych1 是的，自从我指出这一点以来，一些 $XLU 的期权合约在一周内上涨了 80-150%。 一周内出现 3.3% 的波动极其罕见 https://t.co/wmGI7Sysv1
英文原文
@annapych1 Yeah some $XLU strikes are up 80-150% in a week since I called it out. Extremely rare to have a 3.3% movement in a week https://t.co/wmGI7Sysv1
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博主庆祝两个月前的光子学研究验证，相关个股获三位数回报。
我只是在庆祝我两个月前做的一些深度研究(DD)！ 看到 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $LITE 的股价都实现了三位数的回报，这种验证我最初关于光子学(photonics)论点的过程非常有趣。 显然不是在告诉其他人要建仓，只是分享一些更新。
英文原文
I’m just celebrating some of the DD I did two months ago! Seeing it play out with stock prices from $AXTI, $AAOI, and $LITE all hitting triple digit returns is very fun to see (and helps validate my original thesis on photonics). Obviously not telling others to take positions, just sharing some updates.
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建议高位适度止盈但不清仓，长期持有光子学资产将大幅跑赢市场。
是的，在过去两个月疯狂上涨后，适当减仓并锁定部分利润是合理的！不过不要完全清仓所有头寸。 对我来说，我对自己的投资组合进行更多的主动管理。 我相信，鉴于光子学(Photonics)产能的爬坡，如果你只是持有这些资产三年，其表现将大幅跑赢大多数投资组合。
英文原文
Yeah it makes sense to trim a bit and take some profits after the insane rally last two months! Not completely sell all positions though. For me I do more of active management for my own portfolio. I’m sure if you just hold things for the next three years given photonic ramp, it would strongly outperform majority of portfolios.
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分享AXTI持仓两月涨283%，并提及NVDA财报后的高飞股抛售。
@AvivaMarket 也许是因为即便算上今天的跌幅，本月涨幅也已达 102%？ 我持有的 $AXTI 仓位在过去两个月仍上涨了 283%。 除了健康的回调外，在 $NVDA 财报发布后，许多高飞股出现了抛售。 https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
英文原文
@AvivaMarket Maybe because it just went up 102% this month even accounting for the drop today? Still up 283% in the last two months on one of my $AXTI positions. Healthy correction aside there was a selloff in a lot of high flying names after $NVDA earnings. https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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NVDA回调属健康调整，AI投资核心仍看台积电与云厂商资本开支。
我目前只是持有仓位，仍在四处寻找机会。发这条推文只是不想让大家因为 $NVDA 下跌 5% 就觉得世界末日到了。这是健康的回调，在我看来，AI 交易中最重要的是关注 $TSM 和超大规模云服务商( Hyperscaler )的资本支出(capex)，而这些数据我们都有了。
英文原文
I'm just sitting on positions, still shopping around. Just wanted to make a post so people don't think the world is over because $NVDA dropped 5%. Healthy correction, most important thing to look out for with the AI trade is $TSM / Hyperscaler capex IMO and we already have those.
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分享 $NVDA 投资者从20万本金获利830万的案例，强调选对赢家的重要性。
真令人惊叹，竟然有人通过 $NVDA 获得了 $830 万 的收益。他们的初始投资：约 $20 万。如果你选对了赢家，市场可以轻松改变人生并造就新百万富翁。
英文原文
It's really amazing that there's people out there with $8.3M gains on $NVDA. Their initial investment: ~$200K. Markets can easily change lives and mint new millionaires if you choose the right winner. https://t.co/0HL93Fd6NJ
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博主调侃自己的收益跑赢了某只热门股的3倍杠杆ETF。
@SingularityRes 哈哈，我仍然不敢相信我的收益竟然跑赢了某只股票每天翻绿（上涨）的3倍杠杆ETF。
英文原文
@SingularityRes LOL, I still can’t believe my returns beat the 3x leveraged ETF of a stock going green every day.