· 业绩复盘

年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月,粉丝增长到 10 万+: - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者(涨了 4 倍+) - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制,针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久,这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子,如果看过,抱歉? - 预测了韩国市场波动上升,并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站,以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师,围绕我那篇关于 Soitec($SOI)的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者,比如 Gold Reserve,而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合,结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道! 我其他很多 thesis 帖,比如 $LITE,也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射,以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷! 短短两个月里!我喜欢保持谦虚,但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是,这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播,几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么,也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。

英文原文

Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.

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