业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 459 条 · 第 5 / 10 页
-
批评 IREN 大幅稀释，认为 NBIS 通过差异化和客户关系更强。
我到现在还是想不通，为什么还有人会在 $IREN 上“逢低买入”。 他们搞了 60 亿美元的 ATM，把股份稀释后又卖进公开市场……还以为这会推高股价。 与此同时，$NBIS 通过差异化拿到了更多超大规模客户订单，还得到了 $NVDA 的支持。 IREN 两年前还有的那点 GW 原始资产护城河，现在几乎已经没了。 在 60 亿美元结构性稀释持续压制的情况下，很难看出这只票还能有多少上涨空间。 等现有股东先被稀释完，再考虑做多会更好。
英文原文
It still baffles me how people are still “Buying the Dip” on $IREN. Amid their $6,000,0000,000 ATM, diluted and sold into the open market. Thinking that it will increase their share price. While $NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing. $IREN GW raw asset moat they had two years ago is now almost gone. It’s hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally. Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.
-
认为 AEHR 132% 的回报证明自己够早，量产信号会进一步验证。
$AEHR 的回报不错，说明极早布局是有回报的，132% 的收益就是证明。 现在有很多超大规模客户 / 光收发器客户在为下一轮超级周期给 Aehr 做资格认证，而且 3 天前来的新 SiPh 客户也是非常积极的消息。 我觉得很快就会看到这些信号如何转化成量产订单。
英文原文
Nice return on $AEHR, pays dividends to be extremely early with that 132% return. Lot of hyperscalers / optical transceiver customers for the next supercycle are qualifying Aehr right now, and the new siph customer 3 days ago is extremely positive news. And I think we'll get insight how that translates to volume orders soon enough.
-
说自己正在回敬那些说 thesis 错了的人。
@Mr_Drone 正在回头打脸那些说我 $AXTI 或 $SIVE thesis 错了的人。
英文原文
@Mr_Drone Victory lapping all the haters who said my $AXTI or $SIVE thesis was wrong
-
回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
-
复盘 RPI 财报后上涨，并指出 2027 年估值仍有空间。
thesis 验证正在发生。 $RPI 财报后上涨 44.76%。 Raspberry Pi 在 2027 年大概还有很长的路要走，市盈率可能在 11-13 倍左右。 2026 年大概在 19-22 倍。 在需求大幅跳升、前瞻增长从预期 14% 提高到 58% 的情况下…… Raspberry Pi 已经成了 OpenClaw 首选的、快速加速的 AI 编排硬件。
英文原文
Thesis validation in effect. $RPI up 44.76% after earnings. Raspberry Pi likely has a long way to go with some ~11-13x p/e projections for 2027. And ~19-22x for 2026. With a massive surge in demand to 58% fwd growth from 14% expected… Raspberry Pi has become the rapidly accelerating AI orchestration hardware of choice for OpenClaw.
-
认为自己关于 RPI 的 thesis 被财报验证，媒体和分析师都看错了。
甚至连普通分析师和记者都把 $RPI 叫成了“meme stock”。 我觉得这就是典型的事后偏差：我身边以外的大多数人都否定了这个 thesis。 不管怎样，财报终于验证了它。58% 的同比增长非常出色，我只是一直憋着这口气等财报出来。
英文原文
Even regular analysts called $RPI a "Meme Stock" on top of reporters. Think this is hindsight bias, vast majority of people outside my following dismissed the thesis. Regardless, finally vindicated from earnings. 58% Y/Y growth is phenomenal, just pent up frustration waiting for this report to come out.
-
说自己正确看到了 RPI 的基本面变化，而外界曾嘲笑它是 meme。
@QGrowthCap 我就是很烦，X 和社交媒体上所有人都把它叫成“meme stock”。 可我说 $RPI 的基本面在变化，而且我判断对了。 现在他们都闭嘴了，然后才去更新自己对这只 AI fabless 股票的模型，而它当时的前瞻市盈率只有 19 倍。
英文原文
@QGrowthCap Just frustrating everyone on X and social media called it a "meme stock" When I called fundamental changes on $RPI and got it right. Now they're all silent, and then just updated their models on an AI fabless stock trading at fwd 19 P/E.
-
强调自己对 RPI 的收入预测被验证，市场随后上修增长预期。
兄弟，这也太离谱了……大家都在质疑我 $RPI，还叫它 “Meme Stock”？？ 我明明预测了 48-55% 的前瞻营收增长，而且是拿基本面支撑的。 可分析师都在说 14-17%，新闻媒体都在喊 “Meme Stock”？？ 结果财报后他们把 $RPI 的同比增长预期上调到了 58%。 完全命中，和 $AXTI 一样被验证了。 尤其是我还预测了行业会有 3-4 倍增长。 现在 $RPI 大约是 19 倍到 23.8 倍前瞻市盈率，而收入加速来自 OpenClaw。
英文原文
Bruh wtf... Everyone was doubting me on $RPI, calling it a "Meme Stock"??? I literally projected 48-55% forward revenue growth and backed it up with fundamentals. While all the analysts were saying 14-17% and news outlets were saying "Meme Stock"?? And they updated $RPI to 58% projected Y/Y growth after earnings. Spot on and vindicated like $AXTI. Especially when I projected 3-4X industry growth estimates. Now $RPI is at ~19x-23.8x fwd p/e, with revenue acceleration due to OpenClaw.
-
复盘自己最早关于 RPI / OpenClaw 的预测，以及分析师上修后股价反应。
我最早关于 $RPI 和 OpenClaw 垂直整合的帖子： “但如果需求流入继续，我们可能会看到营收从 14% 增长提高到 48-55% 的温和水平，只要囤货持续。” $RPI 新的分析师预测： 券商把 2026 年 $RPI 的预测从 3.6 亿美元上调到 5.11 亿美元，意味着同比增长 58%。 …… 媒体把我 thesis 里的“meme stock” $RPI，在预测上修后又涨了 27%。
英文原文
My original post on $RPI and OpenClaw vertaim: "But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues." $RPI New Analyst Projections: The broker raised its 2026 $RPI forecast to $511 million from $360 million, implying 58% year-on-year growth. .... The media labeled "Meme Stock" $RPI from my thesis is up 27% on the projections beat.
-
说 VCX 的走势已经验证了自己的判断。
嗯，这走势现在看起来真是验证了我的判断。 $VCX 在 4 天里从 425 -> 110 美元。 我想大多数人其实都预料到了……但我不太懂为什么散户会以为 SpaceX 在高点时值 34 万亿美元。
英文原文
Well this is aging well with $VCX. From $425 -> $110 in 4 days. Think majority of people expected it… but not sure why retail investors thought SpaceX should be valued at $34 trillion at the top. https://t.co/JHURpLJmmq
-
看多 IREN 但担心 60 亿 ATM 的结构性稀释，如果融资完成会重新考虑做多。
基本就是这样。我去年一直看多 $IREN。 但因为那 60 亿美元的 ATM，我现在极度看空，原因是结构性压制。可如果他们真能在稀释老股东之后把这笔钱都融到位。 我会考虑再转回做多。 这纯粹就是稀释带来的市场机制……
英文原文
Yes, basically it. I’ve been bullish on $IREN last year. But with the $6B ATM I’m extreme bearish due to structural overhang. But if they manage to raise all that after diluting existing shareholders. I’d consider flipping long again. This is just market mechanics of dilution…
-
建议 IREN 这种票割肉离场，去找没有稀释封顶的更好机会。
@0xInitialAce 对像 $IREN 这种票，认亏离场可能更好。 这样你就能去追那些不会被稀释限制上行空间的更好机会。 这只是我个人的两分钱看法，大家完全可以继续当流动性，去接那 60 亿美元的稀释。
英文原文
@0xInitialAce Cutting at a loss might be better with things like $IREN. So you can chase better opportunities that don’t have capped upside from dilution. Just my two cents, people are free to be liquidity and buy into the $6B dilution.
-
劝读原帖，别把 60 亿 ATM 当噪音。
@maxpoop69 还是先把原帖读一下可能会有帮助。 也许这就是为什么还有人觉得 $IREN 那 60 亿美元的 ATM 只是噪音，还以为股价能涨 10 倍——因为他们根本不看文件？ https://t.co/JI6DfdsxdX
英文原文
@maxpoop69 Might be helpful to read the post. Maybe this is why people still think $6B $IREN ATMs are noise and their stock prices are going to go up 10x since they don’t read filings? https://t.co/JI6DfdsxdX
-
再次强调 60 亿美元稀释和二级市场卖股不是噪音。
@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor 对 $IREN 来说，60 亿美元的稀释和往公开市场卖股，绝对不是“噪音”。
英文原文
@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor $6,000,000,000 dilution and sales into the open market for $IREN is not "noise".
-
拿 PL 对比，认为 IREN 的 60 亿 ATM 会让绝大多数人离场。
如果一家 110 亿美元市值的 $PL 公司申报了 60 亿美元的稀释，我基本确定大家都会离场。 $IREN 之所以申报 60 亿美元 ATM，是因为那种“钻石手”“逢跌买入”的信徒社区，愿意吞下稀释，只要公司最后成功就行，而不在乎自己的股权被摊薄。
英文原文
If $PL, the $11B company filed for a $6,000,000,000 dilution, I'm pretty sure everyone would leave their positions. The reason why $IREN filed for a $6B ATM is because the cult "diamond hands", "buy the dip" community are happy to tank the dilution as long as the company succeeds over their equity appreciating.
-
认为 IREN 现在的股东是在给扩张买单，融资完成后再做多更合理。
我真的很难不同意我对这件事的判断。 我说过 $IREN 长期是增厚的。但短期持有人是在通过被稀释，给这波扩张买单。 所以，对股权增值来说，最好的做法是等他们把融资做完之后再做多，而不是在他们还在积极稀释的时候买。 $IREN 如果不是真的需要用这个 60 亿美元 ATM，就不会去申报它。尤其是为了把 4.5GW 容量货币化。
英文原文
I really find it hard to disagree with my assessment. I said $IREN was accretive long term. But short term holders are the one funding the buildout by getting diluted. So the best thing to do for equity appreciation is go long after they get the funding, not while they're actively diluting. $IREN would not file a $6B ATM just for "optionality" if they didn't need to use it. Especially to monetize their 4.5GW capacity.
-
说去年看好 IREN，但现在担心是谁在给它的 GW 扩张买单。
我去年看到了 $IREN 的巨大潜力。 我后来转空的原因是……到底是谁在为它的 GW 产能货币化提供资金？答案是现有持有人在被稀释。 $IREN 申报 60 亿美元 ATM，是因为他们大概率没有别的方式来融资。 等他们已经靠稀释把扩张资金筹好之后，我会考虑再次转多。
英文原文
I saw large potential with $IREN last year. The reason I flipped bearish is because... who is funding the monetization of their GW capacity? It's existing holders getting diluted. $IREN filed a $6B ATM since they likely didn't have any other way to finance it. I would consider flipping long again after they already financed their buildout from dilution.
-
支持 Aschenbrenner 的很多长仓，但对 CRWV 和 IREN 单独看空，原因在于融资和稀释。
当然，我很尊重 Aschenbrenner，他大多数多头，比如 $BE 和 $LITE，都非常优秀。我最近也很少再看到像 Situational Awareness 这样水平的基金。 但话说回来：我非常不同意单独看多 $CRWV 和 $IREN。 如果我站在反方来看： $IREN 有很多原始产能。去年我看多，是因为大家都以为他们可以通过轻资产 colo 把它货币化。 但他们选择了高度稀释的 ATM 和 GPU 路线来变现。我仍然认为他们也可以做 colo，而且不需要碰 ATM；只是我觉得这种可能性很低。 $CRWV、$NVDA 和美国政府也许会继续给它托底，降低下行风险和传染性。 他们的软件编排做得很漂亮……
英文原文
Sure, I have a lot of respect for the Aschenbrenner, vast majority of his longs like $BE and $LITE are stellar. I haven't really seen a fund like Situational Awareness in awhile. That being said: strongly disagree with $CRWV and $IREN individually. If I'm playing devils advocate: $IREN has a lot of raw capacity. Last year I was long since everyone thought they could monetize that through asset-lite colo. But they chose heavily dilutive ATMs and GPUs to monetize that. They still can do colo and not tap into the ATM. I just thought that's very unlikely. $CRWV, $NVDA and US Gov might just keep it backstopped and lower downside risk/contagion. They've nailed software orchestration for high margins and have real backlog/revenue. Then they can always figure out a way to refinance. Macro in general just doesn't favor capex heavy companies right now.
-
说自己减了一些集中度，但总体仍然看多，并在 $125 又买了 RDDT。
@ram_blings 我这里也有在这那减一点集中度，但整体还是多头。比如 $RDDT，我就在 $125 又买了一些。 https://t.co/u8x8jgEebD
英文原文
@ram_blings I've trimmed concentrations here and there, but remain long overall. This is $RDDT for example, but I did buy more at $125. https://t.co/u8x8jgEebD
-
认为 IREN 的 60 亿 ATM 和 VCX 的 NAV 错配都会给股价造成结构性压力。
$IREN 现在有 60 亿美元的新卖压。这种 ATM 会在任何反弹里都形成结构性压制。 如果市值只有 110 亿美元，而他们却在公开市场上卖出最高 60 亿美元的新股对着你砸。 我不会在 ATM 结束、现有持有人完成稀释之前做多。 $VCX 也是一样，如果你是在 SpaceX 估值 3400 亿美元、但自己却在 2000% NAV 上交易的地方玩，最后数学迟早会对你不利。
英文原文
With $IREN, you have $6B in newly minted selling pressure. This ATM is structural overhang in any rally. If the marketcap is $11 Billion and they're selling up to $6,000,000,000 worth of new shares against you in the open market. I would not go long until the ATM is finished and existing holders get diluted. Same with $VCX, if you're trading at 2000% NAV of SpaceX (valued at $34 Trillion), eventually the math will work against you.
-
提醒用 NAV 失配和 IREN 的 ATM 去看 VCX 的暴跌逻辑。
$VCX 又跌了 40%。 两天累计跌幅达到 -62.35%。 这很好地提醒我们，有时候真该看看数学…… 尤其是这些名字背后的东西（NAV 错配），再加上像 $IREN 这种 60 亿美元 ATM 申报。 https://t.co/dj1iKO8YLP
英文原文
$VCX is down another 40%. Totaling -62.35% drop in two days. Good reminder that sometimes it’s good to look at the math…. Behind these names (NAV mismatch), especially with others like $IREN and $6B ATM filings. https://t.co/dj1iKO8YLP
-
说自己 AXTI 仓位还涨很多，但股票不会直线上涨。
@Lee_Trades 对啊，它们都非常波动。 比如我的 $AXTI 仓位现在也只是涨了 724%，没有冲到 1000%，有点可惜。 股票不会一路直线上涨。 不过如果你知道自己拿的是什么，那市场上的每一天都还是挺有意思的。 https://t.co/XSp93jeuMa
英文原文
@Lee_Trades Yep, they’re all really volatile. My $AXTI positions are now only up 724% instead of hitting 1000% sadly, for example. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up. But if you know what you own, it’s just another fun day in the markets. https://t.co/XSp93jeuMa
-
说 VCX 的下跌原因很多，但自己发帖后立刻继续暴跌也很巧。
@realstockfox 对，$VCX 下跌的原因我也知道不止一个。 只是那个时间点太巧了，因为它就是在我发帖之后开始跌的。 不过我没想到它居然还会在一天里继续跌 44%。
英文原文
@realstockfox Yeah. I’m well aware $VCX drop was multifaceted. The timing is just funny since it started dropping right after my post. Did not expect it to keep dropping 44% in a day though.
-
质疑一个熊帖怎么能让 100 亿市值基金瞬间跌 44%。
兄弟们……不会真的有人觉得，一个路人的看空 X 帖子，就能让一个市值 100 亿美元以上的基金像 $VCX 那样直接跌 44% 吧…… 对吧？ https://t.co/qeYhzaFiDK
英文原文
Uh guys… don’t think a bearish X post from a random. Can send a $10B+ MC fund like $VCX down 44% straight away… Right? https://t.co/qeYhzaFiDK
-
说自己关于 VCX 的帖子很快就被验证了。
我关于 $VCX 的那篇帖子，很快就应验了。 才过 1 个小时？ https://t.co/hE2OcqYioF
英文原文
Well this post aged well on $VCX. Just 1 hour later? https://t.co/hE2OcqYioF
-
说自己在无人机股上亏了六位数，已经减仓转向光子学。
抱歉听到这个，像 $AVAV 和 $DPRO 这种无人机股票是我亏得最惨的，我在这上面实打实亏了六位数。 我之前发过自己已经在格陵兰和平协议之后止损了这些票，$AVAV 最近又因为 SCAR 项目失利继续受挫。 然后我就把仓位转去光子学了。 这次伊朗战争更多打击的是更大的军工承包商，而不是像委内瑞拉那次那样主要打击无人机公司。 我在 X 上发得很多，但并不是每条都能显示给所有关注者。
英文原文
Sorry to hear, drone stocks like $AVAV and $DPRO were my biggest losers and I lost solid 6 fig on that. I posted earlier I cut my losses on them since Greenland peace deal, $AVAV recently on the Scar program loss. And rotated to photonics. The Iran war tended to be a lot of the larger military contractors this time around, compared to drone companies used in a Venezuela. I post a lot on X, and not everything shows up to followers unfortunately.
-
说自己在 AVAV 上亏了六位数并转向光子学。
@bennybigbull 没有，已经卖掉了 $AVAV，还亏了六位数，然后转去光子学了。
英文原文
@bennybigbull Nope, sold for solid 6 figure loss on $AVAV and rotated to photonics.
-
博主称买入的股票都能大涨，如$ARM买后像$TSEM、$SIVE次日涨20%
我告诉你们...即使我买入像$ARM这样市值1700亿美元的公司，它们第二天也会像$TSEM或$SIVE一样涨20%吗？
英文原文
I'm telling you guys... Even if I buy small cap $170 Billion dollar companies like $ARM. They just go up 20% like $TSEM or $SIVE the next day as well? https://t.co/ULZkv65d27
-
说 IQE 结果很好，是自己第六个带来三位数回报的光子学多头。
而且……$IQE 后来表现得很好。 这好像是我第 6 个带来三位数回报的光子学多头了？ https://t.co/Og4EvMh5Pm
英文原文
And… $IQE turned out well. This like my 6th photonics long that returned triple digits? https://t.co/Og4EvMh5Pm
-
认为在能对冲之后，VCX 可能是个好空头。
@erikles_white 等到对冲工具能用了，$VCX 也许会是个很好的空头。
英文原文
@erikles_white $VCX probably a great short when hedging becomes available.
-
建议与其被 ATM 限制，不如去追求股权上行。
@SwellAndFlow 还是追求股权增值更好，而不是被 $IREN 这个正在进行的 ATM 结构性封顶。 我觉得你这次选得对。
英文原文
@SwellAndFlow It's probably better to chase equity appreciation rather than being structurally capped by $IREN's active ATM. I think you made the right choice.
-
说自己并没有 IREN 仓位，只是在 X 上分享看法。
@CoastalInvstmnt 我没有任何 $IREN 的持仓。 我只是把自己的想法发在 X 上。
英文原文
@CoastalInvstmnt I don’t have any open positions in $IREN. Just sharing my thoughts on X
-
指出 60 亿美元 ATM 会结构性压制上行，但持有人却因此攻击他。
@SPACMANAGER 先指出一个事实：‘60 亿美元的活跃 ATM 会在结构上封顶上行空间’。 $IREN 持有人却说：‘你这是错的，因为你就是个 loser’。
英文原文
@SPACMANAGER Points out a fact: “A $6B active ATM structurally caps upside” $IREN holder: “this is wrong because you’re a loser”
-
强调 IREN 有 60 亿 ATM，涨幅上限已被封住，不如选没有结构天花板的标的。
@bennybigbull 我不是说 $IREN 会崩或者会下跌。 我更细致的意思是：当有一个正在进行的 60 亿美元 ATM 时，上行空间会被封顶。 所以最好还是选那些没有结构性天花板的股票。
英文原文
@bennybigbull Not saying $IREN is going to crash or go down. My nuanced point is that upside is capped when there’s an active $6B ATM. So it’s better to just go with equities without a structural ceiling.
-
用巴菲特反向比喻 IREN：不是买入赚钱机器，而是买入会被稀释的公司。
@StocksAREnuts Buffett 买的是能产生巨额自由现金流的盈利公司。 $IREN 则是反向巴菲特：你买进去的是一家会不断稀释你的公司。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts Buffett buys profitable companies generating enormous amounts of FCF. $IREN is reverse Bufffett where you’re buying into companies to be diluted
-
认为比起 IREN，还有更好的同赛道选择，NBIS 融资更好、AAOI 资本开支更轻。
比 $IREN 更好的机会其实很多。 如果你想留在同一个赛道，$NBIS 显然更好，因为它的 CapEx 融资方式更优（$NVDA 提供了 20 亿美元资金）…… 另外还有像 $AAOI 这种公司，它用更少的 CapEx 就能在营收和利润上超过 $IREN。 但如果你还是想持有 $IREN，也许更好的做法是等大家都被稀释完、为扩建买单之后再重新进场，去收获后面的果实。
英文原文
Much better opportunities out than $IREN. If you want the same sector, $NBIS is objectively better when you look at how they finance capex ( $NVDA $2B funding )… Then there’s others like $AAOI that leapfrogs $IREN revenue + profit, with less capex. But if you still want to hold $IREN, probably better to re-enter after everyone gets diluted to fund their buildout and reap the rewards after.
-
观察 AAOI ATM 可能已结束，但仍要看能否站稳 100 美元。
@KDREAM111111 看起来 $AAOI 的 ATM 可能结束了？ 不过这也没法确定。 如果它能冲过 100 美元以上，并且在一两天内守住涨幅，那大概率就是这样。
英文原文
@KDREAM111111 Looks like $AAOI ATM is done? No way to tell. If it blows through $100+ and holds its gains for a day or two, it's likely.
-
希望 SIVE 能像 AXTI 一样成功，自己 AXTI 已经涨 800%+。
@ResonantCapital 我也希望 $SIVE 能做到。我的 $AXTI 仓位现在已经涨了 800%+。 https://t.co/hZH404W4Ry
英文原文
@ResonantCapital I hope $SIVE does. My $AXTI positions are now up 800%+ https://t.co/hZH404W4Ry
-
认为 AAOI 的 ATM 是结构性压制，但结束后可能冲上 130。
@Taylor_GPT $AAOI 有一个 2.5 亿美元、价格 100 美元的 ATM。 这是结构性压制，但一旦它结束，我觉得它会直接冲过 130 美元。 相对于产能 -> 收入，它还是低估的。
英文原文
@Taylor_GPT $AAOI $250m ATM at $100. Structural overhang, but once that’s done I think it’ll blow past $130. Undervalued relative to capacity -> revenue
-
说自己 AXTI 未实现收益 604%，所以看着它“跌很多”很难。
@marv_jones6 @BonyBallf2 对啊，我在 $AXTI 上还浮盈 604%…… 所以对我来说真的很难把它看成“跌很多”的票，正如评论里说的那样。 我还继续持有着。 https://t.co/zhGXaYkeTZ
英文原文
@marv_jones6 @BonyBallf2 Yeah I’m sitting on 604% unrealized gains for $AXTI… so hard to notice this stock “down a lot” according to the commenter. Still holding https://t.co/zhGXaYkeTZ
-
用一串收益对比说明 AXTI、IQE、AAOI 只是短期回撤，并非真正下跌。
$AXTI 当时是 12 到 15 美元？ 我从没听说过有人会把从 5 倍回报之后，$AXTI 从 60 美元回调到 55 美元这种事称作“跌很多”。 $IQE 年初至今涨了 266%？ $AAOI 从 30 美元 -> 125 美元 -> 85 美元，不能就说它跌很多。 真正确实是红的，只有 $RDDT。因为我在它 140 美元时提过，现在它是 136.5 美元。也就是跌了 3.5 美元。
英文原文
$AXTI was $12-15? I’ve never heard of someone complain of $AXTI correcting $5 after a 5x return to $60 to $55. $IQE is up 266% YTD? $AAOI was $28-$32? Going from $30 -> $125 -> $85 doesn’t mean down a lot $RDDT is the only name you’ve mentioned that’s genuinely red since I mentioned it at $140 and now it’s $136.5. So down $3.5
-
回应 MU 的表现，认为其盈利很强，市场并非因为财报“超预期”而突然重估。
@alejandrobatiz 我从没说它不该更高。我本来就看多 $MU，不过更广泛的宏观环境正在拖累所有标的。 我只是说，如果像我这样的人都已经能把 $MU 的毛利率模型算进财报里，那市场就不该把它当成别人口中的“意外超预期”。
英文原文
@alejandrobatiz I never said it shouldn't be higher. I'm bullish on $MU, but there's broader macro dragging down every name. I'm just saying if people like myself were able to model in $MU gross margins for earnings, it shouldn't come to markets as a "surprise beat" that others are claiming.
-
拆解 MU 财报前后的定价路径，认为市场在财报前已提前消化大部分利好，期权周押注并不划算。
我看到很多散户在 $MU 468 美元附近的财报上慌成一团。 一般来说，股票的重定价会在财报公布之前就发生。 例外只有一种情况：指引出现重大惊喜。 而美光这次的盈利超预期，并不是那种重大惊喜。 我的看法是： - 2026 年 1 月 25 日：公开消息传出，三星把 Q1 NAND 价格翻倍，DRAM 价格也比环比预估高出约 70%（估算当时只有 33-38%）。 机构可能提前几天就从 300 份付费供应商分析里拿到消息，所以 $MU 才会从 300 美元涨到 400 美元。 - 3 月初：又有消息称三星把 Q2 NAND 价格翻倍，这属于重大意外，比一些预期高出 20 倍，也比另一些预期高出 5 倍。 同时还有消息说三星 / SK 海力士准备在下个季度大幅提高 DRAM 价格。 但这又叠加了伊朗战争、以及更广泛的宏观恐慌导致的指数下跌。 尽管大多数标的都在大幅抛售，这些基本面变化仍然让 $MU 跑赢了那些今年跌了 20% 的公司。 在财报前，彭博终端上还有一份报告预测美光会超预期，这又把股价从 400 多美元推到 460 美元。 问题在于： 这次财报超预期的大部分内容，都是提前知道并且在整整一年里被慢慢计价进去的。 如果你读过我的帖子， - 我一直在跟踪 DRAM / NAND 价格，同时估算超大规模云厂商需求； - 也在追踪原油 / LNG / 氦气扰动对半导体供应链的影响，并把任何毛利率冲击建模进去。 这就是你该怎么给存储公司定价。 -> 财报只是证明你在财报前做出的估算是对的。 所以如果你在财报周买期权： 这真的是个很差的主意。 真正能赚到的利润，都在信息被市场知道并计价之前。
英文原文
I see a lot of retail panicking over $MU earnings at $468. In general, re-pricing in stocks happen before earnings are announced. The exception is "unless there's a major surprise with guidance". Micron earnings beat was not a major surprise. Here's my take: - Jan 25th 2026: Public news broke out Samsung was doubling NAND prices Q1, DRAM ~70% compared to Q/Q estimates of 33-38%. Institutions probably got word a few days early from 300 paid vendor analysis, which is why $MU went from $300 -> $400. - Back in early March: News broke out Samsung was doubling NAND prices for Q2, which was a major surprise, beating some estimates by 20 times, while beating others by 5 times. There was also news that Samsung/SK Hynix were planning large DRAM price increases for the next quarter. However, this was coupled with index dropping/broader macro fears from the Ukraine war. While there was a major sell-off in majority of names, these fundamental changes, likely led $MU to outperform names like $MU that dropped 20% YTD. Leading up to earnings, there was a Bloomberg terminal report projecting Micron to beat earnings, which sent the stock from $400's to $460. The thing is: Majority of this earnings beat was known in advanced and priced in throughout the entire year. If you ever read my posts, - I've been trying to track DRAM/NAND prices along with estimating hyperscaler demand: - Tracking to track crude/LNG/Helium disruption on semi supply chains and modeling in any margin impact Which is how you price in memory companies. -> Earnings are just confirmation that your estimates before were right. So if you're buying options on the earnings week: This is a terrible idea. All the profit to be made is before information is known and priced in by the broader market.
-
认为 Hindenburg 的报告被做空做坏了，也可能促成了今天对 SMCI 相关人士的指控。
@BreakoutPoint 对，那份报告就是被 Hindenburg 做坏了，而这很可能也导致了今天针对 $SMCI 相关个人的指控。
英文原文
@BreakoutPoint Yep Hidenburg cooked on that report and that likely led to the charges of individuals from $SMCI today.
-
回顾自己通过光子和存储超级周期跑赢指数的经历。
我可能只是比指数多跑赢了一点点？ 其实就只是搭上了从 $AXTI 到 $SNDK 的光子和存储超级周期。 现在这样做也只是为了好玩。 https://t.co/VkzcDTIE85
英文原文
I may have outperformed the index just a tiny bit? It’s as simple as riding the Photonics and Memory Supercycles from $AXTI to $SNDK. Just doing this for fun now. https://t.co/VkzcDTIE85
-
认为光子超级周期不受宏观扰动影响，多个相关标的都在上涨。
$TSEM 和光子超级周期…… 看起来它们并不在意伊朗局势，也不在意白银和黄金下跌？ 从 $AAOI、$COHR、$SIVE 到 $LITE，几乎所有名字都在涨。 这就是未来几年产能已经售罄，或者正处在 AI 建设扩张核心位置时会发生的事。 最好还是继续持有，而不是被宏观噪音带偏。
英文原文
$TSEM and the Photonics Supercycle… Doesn’t like they’re bothered with Iran or Silver and Gold crashing? Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green. This is what happens when capacity is sold out for the next few years or it’s in the center of scaling the AI buildout. Better to stay long rather than get distracted by macro.
-
博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
-
说自己关于 LITE 的 thesis 又一次跑通，光子选股经常在短期内翻倍。
这篇关于 $LITE 的 thesis 帖，后来证明又一次跑对了。 我感觉我挑的每一只光子股，短时间内都会继续翻倍。 https://t.co/vOOWFZRgsW
英文原文
This thesis post aged well with $LITE. I feel like every photonics pick I make just keeps doubling in short time periods. https://t.co/vOOWFZRgsW
-
称 IQE 一个月内涨超 100%，因为市场把它映射到 LITE 和超大规模云供应链后开始计价。
$IQE 一个月里就实现了 100%+ 的快速回报。 原来当你把它映射到 $LITE 以及 epiwafer 层面的超大规模云供应链上时…… 市场就会开始结合新的 $LITE 预期给它计价…… https://t.co/TA3xbSGfbX
英文原文
Well that was a fast 100%+ return with $IQE in 1 month. Turns out when you map it to $LITE and the hyperscaler supply chain at the epiwafer level… Markets start pricing it in with the new $LITE projections… https://t.co/TA3xbSGfbX
-
回顾 CRCL 一个月涨 148%，并再次强调自己靠基本面而不是图表做判断。
$CRCL 现在一个月里又涨了 148.15%。 如果有人好奇为什么我的年初至今收益大约 500%： 因为我看的是基本面，不是图上的涂鸦。 这里的评论区，现在看起来就像 2021 年的猴子 JPEG 价格一样。 https://t.co/X5EH5SIrTP
英文原文
$CRCL is now up 148.15% in 1 month. If people are wondering why my YTD is ~500%? It’s because I look at fundamentals, not scribbles on a chart. The comment section back here aged like 2021 monkey JPEG prices. https://t.co/X5EH5SIrTP