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重申对$META的预判：高资本支出无碍其强劲盈利能力。
@ShortsHoward 是的，这真是一次惊人的预判。通常我不给出具体的时间框架，但我说过 $META 是财报预期（earnings optics），结果应验了。资本支出（Capex）虽然更高，但这没关系，因为他们正在疯狂印钞。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward yeah this was an incredible call. Normally I don't give specific timeframes but I said $META was earnings optics and it hit. Capex is higher but it doesn't matter because they're printing so much money.
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惊叹于低隐含波动率下出现的巨大单日涨幅。
@MarkosAAIG 哇，太惊人了。在隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)如此之低的情况下，8.86%+的涨幅非常巨大。https://t.co/fNrbeean7A
英文原文
@MarkosAAIG Yeah holy sht. 8.86%+ move is huge when IV Is so low. https://t.co/fNrbeean7A
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作者回顾去年$META期权展期亏损，称当前收益已弥补。
@MD_Gamification 是的，只要最终盈利就行！去年我在$META上亏了不少，因为我不得不将看涨期权(Options Calls)展期到更晚的日期。我的平均成本最终约为$640。但这笔交易弥补了损失。
英文原文
@MD_Gamification Yep, as long as you profit in the end! I ended up losing a lot on $META last year when I had to rotate calls to a later date. My cost avg ended up being around $640 But this made up for it.
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提醒勿对谷歌股价过度乐观，指出其曾出现开盘涨幅大幅回落的情况。
@mitchell_a30803 别乌鸦嘴！我们曾见过 $GOOGL 在众人庆祝后，开盘涨幅从 7% 回落至 0 的情况。但让我们看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
@mitchell_a30803 Don’t jinx it! We’ve seen $GOOGL go down market open from 7% to 0 before after everyone was celebrating. But we’ll see how things play out
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重申两周前对$META的看涨观点，认为资本支出被夸大且盈利强劲。
顺便提一下，这个在 $625 价位对 $META 的看涨观点仅仅是两周前提出的。🎯 希望未来几周股价能进一步上涨，资本支出(capex)支出被夸大了，因为他们正在疯狂赚钱并以惊人的速度增长。
英文原文
Btw this $META call at $625 was only 2 weeks ago. 🎯 Hope it goes up even more over the next few weeks, capex spend was overblown since they’re printing money and growing at astounding rates. https://t.co/ElqIsW49al
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调侃HFT算法读取推文后导致$LEU股价异动。
@Trylanol 高频交易(HFT)算法会阅读我的帖子，甚至能推动像 $LEU 这样市值 60 亿美元的公司股价，哈哈。美国能源部(DOE)的消息已经发布有一阵子了，然后在我发帖后它突然飙升 8%。这真的不是我（在操控）。
英文原文
@Trylanol HFT algorithms read my posts and even move $6B companies like $LEU lol. DOE news was out for awhile and then it just shoots up 8% since I posted. It’s literally not me
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LEU作为美国唯一HALEU供应商，受政策利好但股价反应平淡。
哎呀 https://t.co/fMHZt9xncY ♻️ $LEU 是一家市值 58.3 亿美元的公司。 Centrus 也是最初瓶颈名单上的另一家公司。 他们是美国目前唯一能够将铀浓缩为用于小型模块化反应堆(SMR)核电站的高丰度低浓铀(HALEU)的公司。 美国能源部(DOE)表示，一个园区将从浓缩到回收吸引“500 亿美元的投资”。 消息公布后股价仅上涨 2%，这令人惊讶。 “特朗普政府已将核能作为其国家能源政策的基石”
英文原文
Whoops https://t.co/fMHZt9xncY
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ASPI具投机性，LEU为HALEU唯一生产商，两者均受益于供应链投资。
正如其他人所说，$ASPI 非常具有投机性，而 $LEU 是目前唯一能够生产高丰度低浓缩铀(HALEU)的公司。话虽如此，我相信它们都是美国能源部(DOE)和私人投资者在这条供应链投资中的潜在受益者，尤其是考虑到特朗普家族通过其子公司参与了该量子富集生产方法。
英文原文
As the others said $ASPI is very speculative and $LEU is the only one that can produce HALEU today. That being said I’m sure they’re a potential beneficiary of this supply chain investment by DOE and private investors, esp. since Trump family is involved with that quantum enrichment production method in their subsidiary
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指出DJT是TAE合并隐形赢家，并计划研究BWXT。
@NgineTrades 是的，还有其他受益者。我不得不承认，$DJT 可能是 TAE 合并后的隐形赢家之一。我会去研究一下 $BWXT。
英文原文
@NgineTrades Yeah there are other beneficiaries out there too. I can’t believe I have to say this but $DJT is probably one of silent winners after the TAE merger. I’ll take a look at $BWXT
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回复网友表示不确定或保留意见
@AkivaLorenz 也许吧
英文原文
@AkivaLorenz Perhaps
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看好LEU，因其是HALEU唯一生产商且具瓶颈优势。
@stocktalkweekly 哇，太棒了！我同意，我最喜欢的是 $LEU，因为他们是默认的最佳选择（作为目前唯一能生产高丰度低浓缩铀(HALEU)的公司，而这是一个瓶颈环节）。
英文原文
@stocktalkweekly Wow nice! I agree, my favorite is $LEU since they’re the best one by default (as the only one that can currently produce HALEU, which is a bottleneck)
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LEU作为美国唯一HALEU供应商，受核能政策利好但股价反应平淡。
♻️ $LEU 是一家市值 58.3 亿美元的公司。 Centrus 是原始瓶颈清单上的另一家公司。 他们是目前美国唯一一家能够将铀浓缩为用于小型模块化反应堆(SMR)核电站的高丰度低浓铀(HALEU)的公司。 能源部(DOE)表示，一个园区将从浓缩到回收吸引“500 亿美元的投资”。 消息公布后股价仅上涨 2%，这令人惊讶。 “特朗普政府已将核能作为其国家能源政策的基石”
英文原文
♻️ $LEU is a $5.83B MC company. And Centrus was the another company on the original bottleneck list. They’re the only company in the US that can currently enrich uranium into HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) for SMR nuclear power plants. DOE said one campus would attract “50 Billion in investments” from enrichment to recycling. It’s only up 2% on the news, which was surprising. “The Trump administration has made nuclear power a cornerstone of its national energy policy”
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调侃$DJT因TAE成核聚变概念股，疑自谋联邦拨款。
@TheWingman4Life 不错！令人啼笑皆非的是，由于 TAE，$DJT 公司现在成了核聚变概念(Proxy)股。 如果他们给自己申请一大笔联邦拨款(Federal Grant)，我也不会感到惊讶。
英文原文
@TheWingman4Life Nice! Hilariously enough $DJT company is now a nuclear proxy because of TAE. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re giving themselves a large fgrant too.
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揭秘拥有AlSiC供应链优势、受益于AI散热与国防的低风险公司。
我惊讶于评论区里大多数 X 侦探都猜对了。 我很快会发布关于这家神秘公司的深度文章。 根据我的研究，一家美国公司拥有铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)供应链的很大一部分份额是独特的，因为这种材料可用于 $NVDA Rubin 代产品的散热。 更妙的是，AlSiC 在太空和国防垂直领域的应用使得该公司下行风险较低，因为国防部/雷神/诺斯罗普/NASA 都依赖这种复合材料。 但谁知道，这种用于高超音速导弹、F-35 战斗机和火星太空探索的散热材料，也能用于解决 2000W+ AI 部署中的翘曲问题？ 市场似乎尚未意识到这一点。
英文原文
I'm surprised majority of the X detectives in the comments guessed this right. I'll do a write-up on this mystery company soon. From my research, it was unique to have US company own a large % of the AlSiC supply chain, as this material could be used for $NVDA Rubin gen for thermal. Better yet, Space + Defense vertical usage of AlSiC gives this company low downside risk bc of DoD/Raytheon/Northrop/NASA reliance of the material composite. But, who knew the same thermal material used for hypersonic missiles, f-35 fighter jets, and Mars space exploration could also be used to handle warpage for 2000W+ AI deployments? Doesn’t seem like markets have yet.
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IBKR因国际半导体投资受益，HOOD应优先拓展台日市场。
@hippygecko 有趣的是，$IBKR 是国际散户投资存储/半导体超级周期的二阶受益者。$HOOD 无法接入这类台湾或日本股票。我确信 @vladtenev 应该将此作为他的第一优先级。https://t.co/ne4ZdKaZYy
英文原文
@hippygecko It’s interesting that $IBKR is second order beneficiary of US retail investing internationally in the memory/semi supercycles. $HOOD doesn’t have access to these types of TW or JP stocks. Pretty sure @vladtenev should make this his #1 priority. https://t.co/ne4ZdKaZYy
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作者分享CRWV交易经历，指出其巨额债务偿付压力。
@Veganhippo21 我去年在 $34 买入 $CRWV，今年在 $70 做了波段交易。话虽如此，“你酸吗”这种论调无助于解决 Coreweave 每年 $12.5 亿+ 债务偿付的问题。 https://t.co/DrP4LIKpYm
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@Veganhippo21 I was buying $CRWV at $34 last year, and I swing traded it at $70 this year. That being said, "u mad" doesn't help Coreweave's issue with $1.25B+ yearly debt payments. https://t.co/DrP4LIKpYm
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对比沃尔玛与美光基本面，建议关注价值而非择时。
我喜欢举这个例子： $WMT，这家袜子零售商的前向市盈率约为40倍，其营收同比增长约5.8%，与通胀水平一致。 $MU，这家领先的存储超级周期公司，前向市盈率约为8.4-8.7倍，营收同比增长133%，每股收益(EPS)同比增长319%。 我认为人们不应该在这里试图择时交易，只需关注基本面即可。
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I like to give this example: $WMT, the sock reseller has a forward P/E is ~40 and it's growing ~5.8% Y/Y in line with inflation. $MU, the leading memory supercycle company, has a forward P/E is 8.4-8.7 ish, off 133% revenue growth Y/Y, and EPS growth 319% Y/Y. I don't think people should be timing the market here, just look at fundamentals.
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对比美光与Nayna的风险收益，因市值差异调整持仓权重。
@ShortsHoward 风险特征和上行空间。鉴于地缘政治因素，$MU 的波动性低于 $NAYA，因此我对两者的投资组合权重配置不同。市值越小（例如 $NAYA 为 290 亿美元 vs $MU 为 4610 亿美元），通常上行空间越大。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward Both risk profile and upside. $MU is less volatile than Nanyna just given geopolitics so I do portfolio weightings differently. The smaller the MC (eg. $29B Nayna vs $461B Micron), the higher upside there is typically .
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告知用户需在盈透证券开启境外交易权限。
@WaterFish2000 它在 $IBKR 上。你只需要开启境外交易权限即可。https://t.co/FY3s1GYrpn
英文原文
@WaterFish2000 It's on $IBKR. You just have to enable foreign trading permissions. https://t.co/FY3s1GYrpn
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内存涨价致MU等前向市盈率降低，厂商竞相提价。
取决于具体日期。根据近期涨价的估算预测，如果计入25日的NAND（闪存）价格涨幅，$MU 的前向市盈率（Forward P/E）可能在8.4-8.7左右。南亚科（Nanya）可能在9.5左右，但其增长速度更快。再次强调，这些公司不断上调内存价格，因此即使股价上涨，前向市盈率也会降低。之前的预测也难以跟上变化。目前它们只是在比拼谁涨价幅度更大。
英文原文
Depends on the day. Using est. projections from recent price hikes, $MU is probably sitting around 8.4-8.7-ish forward p/e if you account for NAND price hikes on the 25th. Nanya is maybe 9.5-ish but it's growing a lot faster. Again these companies keep raising memory prices, so forward p/e gets lower even as the stock prices increases. And previous projections can't keep up as well. They're just one-upping each other on who can hike prices the most at this point.
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南亚科因巨头退出成熟存储市场成唯一供应商，享稀缺溢价，股价低估。
南亚科(TPE: 2408)是我在存储领域的多头持仓之一，与$MU、SK海力士和三星并列。 但理由不同。 你可能在想，这种抛物线趋势（1年+972%）是否会停止？可能不会。 而且它每天还在上涨7%。 以下是简单的总结： 其远期市盈率仅为~13.62（随着涨价，现在可能更低）。 营收同比增长+357.7%/净利润同比增长+804.27%，其利润天文数字般巨大。 类似于美光上个月57.56%+的增速，且自从我首次提及以来已翻倍有余： 股价简直跟不上。 当巨头（三星、SK海力士和$MU）争夺高端AI市场时，南亚科专注于PC、计算机电子和工业领域的成熟及特种DRAM产品。（尽管他们也在做1b节点的先进芯片）。 存储公司留下了巨大的空白，而南亚科填补了它： 美光 - 完全退出消费级产品线 SK海力士 - 几乎完全专注于HBM4和服务器级DRAM。 三星 - 将30-40%的成熟产线重新分配给先进AI存储。 南亚科 - 最后的坚守者 需求保持稳定，但成熟DRAM供应突然断崖式下跌。且它仍被广泛使用于： - 消费级PC和笔记本电脑：2015至2023年间生产的数百万台电脑使用DDR4 - 智能手机：大多数中端和入门级智能手机使用LPDDR4 - 家庭电子产品：智能电视、游戏机（如旧款Nintendo Switch或PS4）使用这些。 基本上，它们仍需生产这些，但南亚科手握所有牌。 买家为旧内存支付“稀缺溢价”，因为他们无处可买，且在一个无聊的市场中看到了供应冲击。 南亚科本质上成了沙漠中卖水的人。他们可以不断抬高水的价格。 我做多这家在沙漠中卖水的公司。
英文原文
Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. But for a different reason. You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not. And it just keeps going up 7% a day. Here's a simple TLDR why: The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes). With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical. Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it: The stock price literally can't keep up. While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though). And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled: Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM. Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory. Nanya - Last man standing Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from: - Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4 - Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4 - Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these. Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards. Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market. Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water. I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.
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解析AI芯片散热瓶颈：CTE不匹配致翘曲，AlSiC成Rubin架构候选方案。
熔点是完全无关的信息。向2000W功率演进导致的问题源于热膨胀系数(CTE)不匹配。 铜的膨胀速度快得多，这会导致翘曲。铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)并非“新”材料，因为它早已用于高铁到高超音速导弹等领域。 只是碰巧在Rubin架构世代出现了新的应用场景，而在Blackwell架构中并不需要它。 实现路径只有几种，AlSiC只是可能的候选方案之一。
英文原文
Melting point is completely irrelevant information. The move to 2000W causes stress due to CTE mismatch. Copper expands multitudes faster, which causes warpage. AlSiC isn't "new" since it's been around for high speed rails to hypersonic missiles. It just so happens that there's a new use case with Rubin generations where it wasn't needed with blackwell. There are single digit different ways to go about it, AlSiC is just one of the likely candidates.
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看空CRWV因债务与折旧风险，建议多NBIS/CIFR空CRWV对冲。
$CRWV 可能是我能想到的唯一一家市值超 500 亿美元且很可能破产的公司。至少 $ORCL 拥有盈利的核心业务，并持有大量资产，例如 15% 的 TikTok 股份。 对我来说，做空 Coreweave 的理由很明确，纯粹因为其大部分收入将用于支付债务利息。再加上 GPU 折旧，情况更是雪上加霜。 但进行对冲是个好主意。我个人会做多 $NBIS、$CIFR，同时做空 $CRWV，这对长期投资来说似乎不错。Nvidia 目前仍在维持它们的生存。
英文原文
$CRWV is probably the only $50B+ company I can think of that is likely going to go bankrupt. At least $ORCL has a profitable core business and owns tons of assets like 15% of Tiktok. Coreweave is a clear short to me purely because a large part of their revenue will be used to pay off debt interest. Then you compound that with GPU depreciation. But it's a good idea to hedge. I would personally long $NBIS, $CIFR short $CRWV, seems decent for long term. Nvidia is keeping them alive for now.
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博主回复粉丝，仅包含表情符号，无实质内容。
@jukan05 🛖🔥🚿💸💾🏦😢
英文原文
@jukan05 🛖🔥🚿💸💾🏦😢
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看好NBIS和CIFR，指出Coreweave高息债务侵蚀现金流。
我认为 $NBIS 目前极具吸引力。$CIFR（指其托管业务而非新云业务）等特定个股也是如此。相比之下，$CRWV 的说服力则稍逊一筹。 Nebius 的商业模式本质上是将五家年同比增长(Y/Y)达100%的公司合并而成。（包括与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶公司 Avride、估值约150亿美元的 Clickhouse、AI 标注公司 Toloka 以及教育科技公司）。此外，还包括其核心业务部门，该部门已实现约70亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR)。 因此，尽管我们需要通过实际产生的自由现金流(FCF)来仔细审视这些乐观的收入数据，但公司方面表示长期 EBIT 利润率有望达到20%~30%。 最关键的差异在于，Coreweave 超过12亿美元的债务利息正在侵蚀其自由现金流，而其他公司则获得了2~3%的低利率融资。
英文原文
저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다. $CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다. 반면 $CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요. 네비우스(Nebius)의 비즈니스 모델은 기본적으로 전년 대비(Y/Y) 100%씩 성장하는 5개의 회사가 하나로 합쳐진 형태입니다. ($UBER와 협력하는 자율주행 Avride, 약 150억 달러의 가치로 평가받는 Clickhouse, Toloka(AI 라벨링), 그리고 에듀테크). 여기에 약 70억 달러의 ARR(연간 반복 매출)을 기록한 주력 사업 부문이 포함됩니다. 따라서 이러한 낙관적인 매출 수치들은 실제 창출되는 FCF(잉여현금흐름)를 통해 면밀히 살펴봐야 하겠지만, 사측에서는 장기적으로 20%~30%의 EBIT 마진을 제시하고 있습니다. 가장 중요한 차이점은 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면, 다른 기업들은 2~3% 수준의 저금리를 확보했다는 점입니다.
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对比新型云融资结构，指出Coreweave债务风险高且英伟达损失可控。
其他如 $CIFR、$WULF 是数据中心托管(colocation)商，它们不购买 GPU。$CRWV、$NBIS、$IREN 则购买。前两家由 $NVDA 注资。后者 $IREN 由 $MSFT 通过预付款购买 GPU。大多数新型云(neoclouds)拥有极佳的融资结构，如 Nebius 的低息可转换债券。Coreweave 是唯一陷入困境的，背负巨额债务，因此若无垃圾债(junk bonds)支持，很难获得额外资金购买更多 GPU。英伟达给 Coreweave 泼了冷水，投入 Coreweave 的 20 亿美元最终仍回流至 $NVDA。如果 Coreweave 因巨额债务和贬值的 GPU 而倒闭，英伟达损失并不大。
英文原文
Others like $CIFR, $WULF are colo. They don't buy GPUs. $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN do. The first two $NVDA funded. The latter one, $MSFT did with prepayment for Iren to buy GPUs. Most neoclouds have great financing structures like low interest rate Nebius convertible notes. Coreweave is the only one on fire, with massive debt, so it's harder for them to secure additional funding to buy more GPUs without junk bonds. Nvidia threw a bucket of water on Coreweave and the $2B into Coreweave goes back to $NVDA anyways. Nvidia doesn't lose much if and when Coreweave goes under with just a ton of debt and depreciating GPUs.
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建议押注英伟达而非高负债的Coreweave
考虑因为 $NVDA 的交易而买入 $CRWV 吗？ 你可以这样思考： 赌场给你更多资金，因此你可以利用抵押品承担更多债务去赌博。 然后所有额外的钱都流回了赌场（即 $NVDA）。 这并不意味着 Coreweave 是一个好的做多标的。 但这确实让英伟达成为了一个。 押注庄家，而不是那个背负 147 亿美元+债务且年利息支付超过 12 亿美元的人。
英文原文
Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal? Here's the way to think about it: A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble. Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA). That doesn't make Coreweave a good long. But it does make Nvidia one. Bet on the house, not the one with $14.7B+ in debt with $1.2B+ in yearly interest payments.
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澄清AlSiC与铜在散热中的不同角色及后处理瓶颈价值
在极小的真空中审视局部，从而否定整个多维度的帖子，并非明智之举。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）被用于高超音速导弹以承受高温不变形，而非铜，是有原因的。或者它被用于使用 AlSiC 散热片的火箭鼻锥。 我来解释一下其中的细微差别：它们的用途不同。 铜在材料熔化前提供最大热传递，热导率表现更佳。而 AlSiC 基本作为外部结构，在热冲击下维持形状。我们可能会看到铜-金刚石或 AlSiC 的混合材料，因为每种材料各有专长。 AlSiC 尤其用于翘曲控制，因为铜会膨胀，你们在 Blackwell 上已经看到了这一点。 至于制造，情况很复杂。我从未说过它（成本/难度）更高。我说的是前道工序可能面临大规模生产的困难。 但 AlSiC 可能存在后处理瓶颈，如果它成为 2000W+ 架构的组件，从事此环节的公司将更具价值。
英文原文
Not the best idea discredit the entire multifaceted post by looking at something in a tiny, tiny vacuum. There's a reason why AlSiC is used in hypersonic missiles to survive temperature without warping instead of copper. Or why it's used for the nose cone in rockets which use AlSiC heat spreaders. I'll help explain the nuance: they're both used in different ways. Copper for maximum heat transfer before the material melts and it does a better job with thermal conductivity. And AlSiC, which is basically the exterior to maintain the shape under thermal shock. We might see some copper-diamond or AlSiC mix since each material specializes in something different. AlSiC especially is used for warpage control since copper expands and you've already seen that with Blackwell. As for manufacturing. It's nuanced. I never said it was higher. I said former processes likely high mass-production difficulty. But there is likely a post-processing bottleneck with AlSiC, which makes the companies that do this more valuable if it becomes a component for 2000W+ architectures.
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关注8英寸晶圆价格上涨趋势，认可相关分析观点。
@zephyr_z9 8英寸晶圆(wafer)价格上涨确实也是我会关注的一个点！ 很棒的论点(thesis)
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 8 inch *wafer* price increases are definitely something I’d look out for too! Great thesis
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赞同关于南亚科在成熟制程存储领域占据份额的论点。
@zephyr_z9 这句话的前10个字确实有更好的表达方式…… 但论点很棒，我们已经看到南亚科(Nanya)如何在成熟制程(legacy)存储领域占据大量份额，情况正是如此。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 There’s definitely a better way to word the first 10 words of the sentence.. But great thesis, we’ve already seen how it played out with nanya capturing a lot of legacy w/ memory