白毛股神SERENITY · 中文档案

顺着供应链向上游走，
找到那个没人盯着的卡点。

Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）是 X 平台 66 万粉丝的美股博主， 从工程与产业链角度寻找 AI 时代的供应链瓶颈与"隐形冠军"， 中文财经社区因其形象与战绩称之为「白毛股神」。 本站将他的全部公开推文翻译成中文，按个股论点 / 供应链分析 / 方法论 / 业绩复盘四类归档， 每 30 分钟自动同步最新推文中文版。

代表案例：一条推文带火机器人谐波减速器龙头绿的谐波；光子学 $SIVE 三个月暴涨 1900%；早期判断 $AXTI InP 衬底产能瓶颈； CPO 共封装光学、InP 衬底、AI 数据中心光互联等核心赛道的全程记录。

已收录 6386 条推文 覆盖 1030 个标的 时间跨度 2025-07-02 → 2026-08-12

🇨🇳 博主提到的中国 A 股

共 37 条 · 含 A 股代码 / 上证创业板科创板 / 绿的谐波等关键词的推文 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$AVGO$COHR$LITE$MTSI$NVDA$SIVE

    AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。

    哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。

    英文原文

    Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

    原推 ↗
  2. 方法论 $AAPL$PYPL

    主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。

    @highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。

    英文原文

    @highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.

    原推 ↗
  3. 个股论点 $SKHY

    SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。

    @chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。

    英文原文

    @chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

    原推 ↗
  4. 供应链分析 $AAOI$LITE$SIVE$SOI$TSM

    高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。

    谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。

    英文原文

    Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

    原推 ↗
  5. 供应链分析 $CCXI

    LeaderDrive创新高，中美机器人热潮推动板块情绪高涨。

    LeaderDrive (688017) 今日触及20%涨停后创下历史新高。机器人板块的热情似乎已触手可及……主要由美国和中国的尖端人形机器人公司 $CCXI / Agility Robotics 推动。以及宇树科技（今日获STAR上市批准） https://t.co/GCqizzzuTQ

    英文原文

    LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) https://t.co/GCqizzzuTQ

    原推 ↗
  6. 供应链分析 $RKLB

    美股流动性聚焦太空等前沿产业，RKLB存在溢价。

    @sokarsokk 像 LeaderDrive 这样的名字处于历史高位？当然取决于具体公司。 美国的流动性运作方式略有不同，通常聚焦于太空、机器人、AI 等下游前沿产业。 如果我们以 $RKLB 作为太空领域的例子，它存在溢价。

    英文原文

    @sokarsokk Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course. Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such. If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $2316

    WUS 持有高值子公司股份却市值极低，建议管理层减持以释放价值。

    我同意 Palliser Capital 的观点。作为股东，WUS（2316 TW）市值仅约 10 亿美元简直太愚蠢了。尽管他们持有昆山 WUS 11.26% 的股份，而后者是一家市值 393 亿美元（2820 亿人民币）的公司……其税前价值达 44.2 亿美元。只需出售四分之一或类似比例的股份？你还能额外获得约 11 亿美元，用于处于 AI 需求拐点的 PCB 增长。这纯粹以现金计算，就已超过你当前的税前市值。此外还有 33 亿美元的资产 + 市场可能会因为愿意减持受限资产而重新评估你的公司。没人要求你减持所有资产，但净资产价值（NAV）的脱节简直是疯狂。WUS TW 管理层真的应该重新考虑。

    英文原文

    I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.

    原推 ↗
  8. 个股论点 $093370$TSM

    富松因中国对日出口管制致钨源短缺而受益，单日涨幅远超指数。

    我确实说过富松(093370)将成为中国对日本实施出口管制所造成瓶颈的主要受益者……大多数人追逐7.5%的指数回报，然而随机发现的瓶颈可能在一天内带来21%的涨幅，哈哈。

    英文原文

    I did say Foosung (093370) was going to be a major winner from the bottleneck created by Chinese export controls on Japan… Most people chase 7.5% index returns, yet random bottlenecks spotted might be 21% in a day lol

    原推 ↗
  9. 杂谈 $SIVE$SOI$SPCX

    博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。

    如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，

    英文原文

    If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,

    原推 ↗
  10. 杂谈 $300376

    调侃众包名单带动300376大涨。

    ???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376 怎么涨了20%啊哈哈。

    英文原文

    ???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376怎么涨了20%啊哈哈 https://t.co/OdmqmIYB6V

    原推 ↗
个股论点2373 供应链分析1315 方法论651 业绩复盘481 杂谈1566

最新推文

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  1. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    CW激光器供应商如SIVE等未来重要性将显著提升。

    @stockprodigyman 我的结论是，$SIVE / Win、住友、古河以及其他合格的CW（连续波）商用激光器供应商…… 在未来将变得重要得多。

    英文原文

    @stockprodigyman My takeaway was that $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and other qualified CW merchant laser suppliers... Are going to become a lot more important in the near future.

    原推 ↗
  2. 供应链分析 $AAOI$COHR$LITE$MTSI$POET

    COHR财报揭示InP激光器产能紧缺，CPO需求提前，收入高增。

    我的主要观点是：商用连续波(CW)激光器供应商现在显得极其重要。 但 $COHR 财报的 TLDR（太长不看版）是： “鉴于我们在数据中心业务中看到的收发器需求，我认为在可预见的未来，我们都不会对外销售磷化铟(InP)激光器。” - 如果 $AAOI 无法为第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署提供足够产能，且 $COHR 不对外销售，那么那些对外销售 InP 激光器的公司将获得更高的估值。 我想这就是为什么 $MTSI 表示大量客户正迫切地向他们寻求 InP CW DFB 激光器（而他们直到 2027 年底才没有有意义的产能上线）。 $AAOI -> 内部自用 $COHR -> 内部自用 买家 -> 寻找产能的选择更少。 “我们的积压订单现已延伸至 2027 财年，基本上已完全预订。我们实际上已预订至 2027 日历年末。” [巨大的需求可见性] - Coherent 还提到了跨越至本十年末的长期协议(LTA)。这在一定程度上印证了 $POET CEO 在其年度股东大会上所说的“三大巨头”未来两年已完全售罄。 “我们目前在组装和测试产能方面并不受限。我们真正受限的是磷化铟生产的爬坡。” - 对于那些关注瓶颈的兄弟们来说，组装/测试并不是瓶颈。 “CPO 需求绝对没有推迟。事实上，情况恰恰相反。我们看到了需求增加，客户的要求被提前。” “我们继续预计来自规模化应用的 CPO 收入将从 2027 年日历年下半年开始流入。” - 如果 $LITE 和 $COHR 确认 CPO 规模化收入将在 2027 年下半年到来，这对其他 CPO 参与者来说是一个巨大的利好传导。 - “到 2027 财年末，季度收入超过 30 亿美元” - $COHR 收入飞速增长 所以常规数据如下： - 收入 20.46 亿美元（环比 +13.3%，同比 +33.8%），主要收入增长看起来发生在进入 Q4 至 2027 年期间 - 非公认会计准则毛利率：40.2% 下一季度指引为： - 收入：22-24 亿美元 - 非公认会计准则毛利率：39.5-41.5% 基本上： 16.9 亿 -> 18.1 亿 -> 20.5 亿 -> ~23.0 亿 -> 30 亿（2027 财年末） ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5%（毛利率） 对于营业利润率： 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% 与 $LITE 的利润率增长相比，我对盈利能力的印象稍逊一筹，但 $COHR 的收入规模正在快速增长。

    英文原文

    My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.

    原推 ↗
  3. 个股论点 $COHR

    博主兴奋于COHR财报影响，将发帖。

    @LightLogix 是的，现在正在看 $COHR 的财报，对其带来的影响感到非常兴奋，稍后会发帖。

    英文原文

    @LightLogix Yeah looking at $COHR earnings now, pretty excited about the implications, will post soon

    原推 ↗
  4. 个股论点 $LITE$NBIS

    AI财报强劲，空头被迫认输离场。

    @mikealfred 空头们在看到了从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 的所有人工智能财报后，又要回去冬眠了。

    英文原文

    @mikealfred Bears are going back into hibernation after seeing all these AI earning reports from $NBIS to $LITE.

    原推 ↗
  5. 个股论点 $CRWV$NBIS

    尽管积压订单充足，但高额利息侵蚀现金流，持续看空Coreweave。

    @R42t0r 自去年以来，我一直非常明确地看空 $CRWV，相较于 $NBIS 和其他新云厂商。需求并非真正的问题，其超1000亿美元的积压订单，营收及59%的调整后EBITDA利润率看起来不错。但潜在的融资方式真的很糟糕……Coreweave的债务利息（例如Q2利息支出达6.4亿美元）过度侵蚀了自由现金流……作为参考，该数字约占Coreweave 15.1亿美元调整后EBITDA的42%。

    英文原文

    @R42t0r I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.

    原推 ↗
  6. 个股论点 $CRWV$IREN$NBIS

    NBIS 业绩超预期，需求可见度极高，电力指引上调，看多。

    $NBIS 的前景再次令人难以置信。 营收 5.823 亿美元（同比 +454%，环比 +46%），AI 云业务调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率约 50%。手头现金 80.4 亿美元。 重申财务指引（2026 年营收：30-34 亿美元；2026 年底年度经常性收入 ARR：70-90 亿美元），我原本希望会上调指引，但这已经是巨大的增长了。 重点不在于本季度财务数据，而是这些信号： - “我们今天就能以这些条款卖出 2027 年的全部产能。”需求可见度极高。 - “4 份客户协议，每份合同价值平均超过 10 亿美元。” - 约 70% 的 Q2 交易包含客户预付款。 - 签约电力指引再次上调，从约 4+ GW 升至 5 GW。（这曾是相对于 $IREN 辩论中的担忧点，但 Nebius 的电力指引持续飙升）。 - 预计 2026 年预付款超过 90 亿美元，并表示拥有超过 400 亿美元的承诺订单。 - 每兆瓦年度合同价值持续飙升（Q3 短期容量交易 >4000 万美元/兆瓦）。 看空故事依然存在（例如 56.6 亿美元的高资本支出和当前 GAAP 净亏损），但需求极度强劲且可见度极高，AI 云调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率持续提升（24% -> 45% -> 50% 的演进）。 我们昨天通过各大超大规模云厂商 (Hyperscaler) 的财报和 $CRWV 的积压订单已经大致看透了这一点，很高兴在 Weebius（应为 Nebius 笔误）的财报中看到印证。

    英文原文

    $NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $AEHR

    AEHR获AI处理器大厂追加订单，盘前涨5.39%。

    $AEHR 获得其领先的 AI 处理器公司追加的 2200 万美元 AI 处理器晶圆级老化测试系统订单。看到这家小公司在众多垂直领域（内存、硅光子学等）如此快速成长，感觉很酷。消息公布后盘前上涨 5.39%。

    英文原文

    $AEHR receives another $22M follow on order for AI processor wafer level burn in systems. By their lead AI processor company. It’s cool to see this tiny company grow up so fast across so many verticals (memory, silicon photonics, etc). Up +5.39% premarket off the news. https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo

    原推 ↗
  8. 个股论点 $SIVE

    SIVE 早期客户成功，具备收购潜力，但光模块同行缺乏困境资产。

    @tontonborland @Sofigoodboy 我很确定 $SIVE 在早期就拥有 Lightmatter、Celestial、Lightelligence 和 Ayar 等客户。这些公司起初规模很小，最终都成长为估值超 40 亿美元的巨头。因此我相信他们很清楚如何处理有前景的私有公司收购案。除了可能市值约 2 亿美元的 OE Solutions 外，几乎没有提供光收发器设计的困境公开公司，但我不确定他们在 800G/1.6T 可插拔模块方面的进展如何。

    英文原文

    @tontonborland @Sofigoodboy Pretty sure $SIVE had Lightmatter, Celestial, Lightelligence, and Ayar as customers way early on before. And they all ended up ~4B+ companies after starting off small. So I'm sure they know what to do with promising private company acquisitions. There's not really much distressed public companies that offer optical transceiver designs other than maybe OE Solutions I think around ~$200m, but not sure how their progress is going with 800g/1.6T pluggables.

    原推 ↗
  9. 供应链分析

    澄清Win Semi自行采购衬底，并指出其在台拥有多元外延代工渠道。

    @Mathieuber61726 不完全是，我很确定 Win Semi（胜科半导体）自行采购其材料/衬底供应。鉴于其在台湾的地位，Win 可能与 Landmark 等外延晶圆代工厂关系密切，从而拥有额外的采购渠道。

    英文原文

    @Mathieuber61726 Not really, I'm pretty sure Win Semi procures their own material/substrate supply. Given it's position in Taiwan, Win is probably well connected to epi foundries like Landmark for additional sourcing options.

    原推 ↗
  10. 个股论点 $AAOI

    AAOI产能专供自产光模块，需求缺口大，利好股价。

    @x4tsr 不，因为 $AAOI 表示其稀缺产能将内部专用于生产自有的 800G/1.6T 光收发器(Optical Transceivers)。他们称，即使所有产能全部投产，仍会出现 20-40% 的需求缺口。需求旺盛导致无法扩展至新产品线，这并非坏事。

    英文原文

    @x4tsr No, because $AAOI said that their scarce capacity is dedicated internally toward making their own 800G/1.6T optical transceivers. Which they said would be a 20-40% demand imbalance even if all their capacity come online. It's not a bad thing to have too much demand, that you can't expand to new product lines.

    原推 ↗

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关于「白毛股神」Serenity

白毛股神（英文 White Hair Stock God）是中文财经社区给美股 X 博主 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) 的称呼，源于他独特的银白发型与一系列在 AI 与半导体供应链上"提前看见瓶颈"的精准判断。

他的研究方法核心是从工程与产业链角度倒推：每一波 AI 算力扩张背后 必然有一个环节产能跟不上，谁卡在那里、谁就握有定价权——他称这些公司为"隐形冠军"。 代表作之一是 2026 年 6 月点名机器人谐波减速器龙头"绿的谐波"后该股迅速成为市场焦点； 光子学 $SIVE（Sivers Semiconductors）在他喊出后三个月内涨幅约 1900%； $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）衬底瓶颈、Coherent $COHR 的 CPO 共封装光学路径， 也是被他早期持续覆盖的代表案例。

本站收录他的全部公开英文推文并自动翻译为中文，按 个股论点、 供应链分析、 方法论、 业绩复盘 四类整理，方便中文读者学习其研究框架。 详细说明 →