白毛股神SERENITY · 中文档案

顺着供应链向上游走，
找到那个没人盯着的卡点。

Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）是 X 平台 66 万粉丝的美股博主， 从工程与产业链角度寻找 AI 时代的供应链瓶颈与"隐形冠军"， 中文财经社区因其形象与战绩称之为「白毛股神」。 本站将他的全部公开推文翻译成中文，按个股论点 / 供应链分析 / 方法论 / 业绩复盘四类归档， 每 30 分钟自动同步最新推文中文版。

代表案例：一条推文带火机器人谐波减速器龙头绿的谐波；光子学 $SIVE 三个月暴涨 1900%；早期判断 $AXTI InP 衬底产能瓶颈； CPO 共封装光学、InP 衬底、AI 数据中心光互联等核心赛道的全程记录。

已收录 6671 条推文 覆盖 1055 个标的 时间跨度 2025-07-02 → 2026-09-17

🇨🇳 博主提到的中国 A 股

共 43 条 · 含 A 股代码 / 上证创业板科创板 / 绿的谐波等关键词的推文 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 方法论 $AAOI

    博主赞赏粉丝学习其研究框架而非照抄个股

    我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究，举一反三。或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于连续波(CW)激光器供需失衡的思路，应用到 A 股。很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票，并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！

    英文原文

    我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三. 或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股. 很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！

    原推 ↗
  2. 个股论点 $AAOI$AVGO$COHR$LITE$SIVE

    批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守，建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。

    如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报： 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)（正值行业瓶颈期） 这是电话会议最重要的部分，本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且，不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东，听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火： “我们将评估时机，并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场，这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司，不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调，这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一，需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说，现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费，听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要，但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购，获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元，现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈，不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是，谁在乎与客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你做可插拔模块，我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”， 谁会？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈，因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购，情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR： $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速，至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，使用你的股权估值，收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞，市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值，而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守，但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商，并最终被估值为欧洲公司。

    英文原文

    If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.

    原推 ↗
  3. 供应链分析 $688836$AMZN$CCXI$NVDA$TSLA

    宇树科技上市估值533亿，显示人形机器人纯玩需求超预期。

    宇树科技(688836)现已上市。在上涨+492.18%后，其估值约为533亿美元。我们终于有了一个主要的人形机器人上市公司基准。作为参考，由$NVDA和$AMZN支持的Agility通过$CCXI预计将于第四季度以25亿美元投前估值上市。$TSLA市值超过1万亿美元，但Optimus被包裹在一个更大的公司内。但我认为宇树科技表明，市场对纯人形机器人玩家的需求比公开市场预期的要大得多……

    英文原文

    Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.

    原推 ↗
  4. 供应链分析 $VPG

    对比人形机器人零部件供应商的全球巨头与中国厂商的营收节奏。

    @kevs_World02 哈默纳科(Harmonic)/LeaderDrive/舍弗勒(Schaeffler)似乎无处不在。还有一些更小众的零部件供应商，比如 $VPG，可能用于 Optimus/Figure。但我觉得规模差异巨大，因为舍弗勒声称他们正与约45家人形机器人玩家合作。不过，向 Agibot/Unitree 供货的中国供应商可能会率先实现营收，我很快会对该领域做更多研究。

    英文原文

    @kevs_World02 Harmonic/LeaderDrive/Schaeffler seem to be in pretty much everywhere. There's some more niche component suppliers like $VPG for maybe Optimus/Figure. But I think the scale is vastly different since Schaeffler claimed they were wokring with ~45 humanoid players. Chinese suppliers to Agibot/Unitree probably hit revenue first though, I can do more research into that area soon.

    原推 ↗
  5. 供应链分析 $005930$6976

    MLCC交货期延长且扩产推迟，AI服务器瓶颈加剧。

    所以只是在追踪 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）周期： ComponentNews 将服务器 MLCC 归类为“严重”短缺阶段，ETNews 报道： - 根据 DigiKey 的出货数据，三星（$005930）部分高容量 MLCC 的交货期已达约 40 周。 今年早些时候，更广泛的报道约为 20 周，因此 AI 服务器 MLCC 瓶颈仍在扩大。 - 村田（$6976）6 月约为 24 周。 7 月约为 30 周。现在有些已达约 36 周。 这很有趣： “新产能扩张计划从 2026 年第四季度推迟至 2027 年” 未说明是哪项扩张……也许是村田？但如果产能扩张据报道受阻，短期瓶颈应该会收紧。 交货期是追踪供需失衡的好方法。

    英文原文

    So just tracking the MLCC cycle: ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting: - Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data. Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing. - Murata was ~24 weeks in June. July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks. This was interesting: “The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027” Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term. Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.

    原推 ↗
  6. 个股论点 $AMZN$CCXI$NVDA

    博主因无法买A股，通过CCXI布局人形机器人并看好Unitree。

    @tRbW6qAUT717891 我无法购买A股，所以我坚持投资美股市场。 通过 $CCXI（由 $NVDA、$AMZN、软银支持）的敏捷性是我个人对机器人(人形机器人)领域的敞口。 但我正在为所有中了 Unitree 股票彩票的人欢呼。

    英文原文

    @tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.

    原推 ↗
  7. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$AVGO$COHR$LITE$MTSI$NVDA$SIVE

    AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。

    哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。

    英文原文

    Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

    原推 ↗
  8. 方法论 $AAPL$PYPL

    主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。

    @highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。

    英文原文

    @highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.

    原推 ↗
  9. 个股论点 $SKHY

    SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。

    @chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。

    英文原文

    @chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

    原推 ↗
  10. 供应链分析 $AAOI$LITE$SIVE$SOI$TSM

    高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。

    谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。

    英文原文

    Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

    原推 ↗
个股论点2479 供应链分析1413 方法论663 业绩复盘487 杂谈1629

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  1. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$AMZN$ARM$CIEN$CRWV$GFS$GNRC$INTC$IREN$MRVL$MU$NBIS$NVDA$QCOM$SIVE$SNDK$TSEM

    AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。

    本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。

    英文原文

    TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.

    原推 ↗
  2. 个股论点 $NBIS$PSMC

    传统存储价格累计暴涨超400%，预计Q3无晶圆厂财报将大幅超预期。

    以防你好奇我为什么如此看好传统存储(legacy memory)…… 它们的涨价幅度似乎比 $NBIS 今天报告的 GPU 租赁 +17-21% 或太诱村田(Taiyo-Murata) 类型的 MLCC 涨价要极端得多。 预计下半年(H2)的涨价预测： - SLC NAND：下半年比上半年 +120-170% - 高容量 NOR：下半年比上半年 +90-110% - ~DDR3/DDR4：Q3 +50% - DDR2：Q3 +35-40% - LPDDR：Q3 +20% 或更多 - DDR1、旧款 LPDDR 和 PSRAM：也在上涨 作为一个综合视角…… 其中很多是在上半年已有涨价(例如 SLC NAND 上半年涨 130-150%)的基础上叠加的，因此 2026 年累计涨幅达到 +406%-575%。 这比上游晶圆 COGS 涨价(例如 $PSMC 的 DRAM 晶圆 +45%)对整体合并净利润的影响更大。 所以我预计许多传统存储无晶圆厂(fabless)公司的 Q3 财报会非常亮眼(cook)。

    英文原文

    Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC) So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook

    原推 ↗
  3. 供应链分析 $COHR$LITE$NVDA

    富士康拟联合投资以解决CW激光器等光子学瓶颈。

    让人想起 $NVDA 与 $LITE + $COHR 的情况： 富士康（Foxconn）正在考虑联合投资，以避免上游材料短缺。 富士康互连技术董事长指出，连续波(CW)激光器和光纤是光子学领域最大的瓶颈。 看到这两个主题在行业评论中被反复提及，非常有趣。 几乎就像 X 上某个动漫角色关于 CW 激光器瓶颈的说法是对的。

    英文原文

    Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR: Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages. Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics. Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commentary. Almost like a certain Anime character on X was right about CW laser bottlenecks.

    原推 ↗
  4. 个股论点 $AVGO$COHR$JBL$LITE$SIVE

    Sivers获行业认可，产能升级跻身T1梯队，并与中国厂商合作。

    顺便提一下，$SIVE 在 Digitimes 上也有报道，这值得赞赏，表明其在瑞典之外获得了行业认可。我认为 Sivers 建设 1 亿+ 连续波分布反馈 (CW DFB) 激光器产能，迫使行业重新审视其模型，并带来了更多的关注。因为它如果顺利实现产能爬坡，将使 Sivers 进入与 $COHR、住友、古河、$AVGO、Landmark 和 $LITE 并列的 T1 激光器产能讨论中。除此之外，2026 年 CIOE 的渠道调研非常有意义，因为业界发现 Sivers 正在与中国可插拔光模块厂商合作，并在当地设立办公室。这让我想起当初我在 OFC 指出 $SIVE 和 $JBL 在 1.6T 长距光模块 (LRO) 上的合作时，没人相信这种联系，直到官方发布新闻稿。总之，很高兴看到这家小公司茁壮成长。

    英文原文

    $SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up

    原推 ↗
  5. 个股论点 $NVDA

    NVDA半数员工身价超2500万，证明其未因宏观恐慌而抛售。

    作为明天美联储决议前的一点打气数据：据报道，$NVDA 50% 的员工身价现已超过 2500 万美元。他们并非通过在每次宏观恐慌或加息前抛售（paperhanding）股票才达到这一数字的。

    英文原文

    Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g

    原推 ↗
  6. 杂谈 $CCXI

    CCXI发布Digit 5人形机器人，博主询问看法。

    $CCXI 发布了其 Digit 5 下一代人形机器人。大家怎么看？ https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5

    英文原文

    $CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid. Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $AMD$BE$CRWD$CRWV$DRAM$INTC$SKHY$SNDK

    驳斥克拉默观点，基于基本面看好内存与存储股，中期看多 Leopold 持仓。

    今天看到吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）支持对冲基金做空 Leopold 关于 $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix 的“胡言乱语”式看涨观点。同时克拉默称 $CRWD 为“必买”。我不确定克拉默是否看到一家被贴上“网络安全”标签的 2410 亿美元市值公司就认为其安全，而忽略了所有基本面。但就 CrowdStrike 而言，这是一家 2028 财年远期市盈率（Forward P/E）约 145 倍、营收同比增长 26% 的公司，克拉默却认为它是“必买”。然后看看 Leopold 做多的 AI 资本支出受益主题。像 $SKHY / 三星在 $DRAM 领域……分析师预测 2027 财年远期市盈率仅约 2.8-3 倍。-> 三星签订至 2031 年的长期协议（LTA）（70% 产能）以确保耐用性…… -> SK Hynix 提供最低价格底线 + 无价格上限类型的合同。-> 未来一年内存短缺将更加严峻。-> DRAM/NAND 占超大规模云厂商资本支出的比例更高（Trendforce 估计为 68%）。-> 2027 年超大规模云厂商资本支出预测全部上调。至于 $SNDK，2030 年自由现金流（FCF）利润率预计达 50%，毛利率达 80%。我唯一不同意 Situational Awareness 持仓的是 $CRWV，因为债务利息侵蚀自由现金流，但我可以对 $BE、$INTC、$AMD 等提出类似的看涨论点。短期尚不确定，但中期来看：鉴于压倒性的基本面，很难不认为 Leopold 的持仓会走出与克拉默截然相反（Inverse Cramer）的走势。

    英文原文

    I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix. -> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year. -> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce) -> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked. Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030. Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others. Not quite sure about short-term, but over the medium run: It's hard to not see Leopold's positions pulling an Inverse Cramer due to overwhelming fundamentals.

    原推 ↗
  8. 供应链分析 $GOOGL$IREN$NVDA

    AI算力需求长期锁定，短期恐慌不影响整体建设。

    $IREN CEO 在 Anthropic 关于前沿模型放缓的通话中表示：“即使模型从此不再改进……仅部署现有能力所需的算力，也将超过世界未来数年能构建的总和。”我同意，当前叙事让人想起 $NVDA DeepSeek 抛售潮或 $GOOGL TurboQuant 恐慌。结果如何？这些每年发生一两次的恐慌最终都被证明对整体 AI 建设无关紧要。尤其是当我们的需求合同已涵盖从先进封装到内存采购直至 2030 年代的整个周期时。

    英文原文

    $IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.

    原推 ↗
  9. 个股论点 $ESMT

    NOR/SLC NAND严重短缺，ESMT因高密度产品受益最大，强烈看多。

    NOR Flash“严重供应短缺”，高密度产品下半年持续涨价90-110%。 我想知道谁同时销售高密度NOR和SLC NAND？*咳咳，$ESMT* 上半年涨幅： NOR：+100–120% SLC NAND：+130–150% 下半年涨幅： 高密度NOR：下半年90-110% SLC NAND：~70–75%。 显然还有华邦电子/宏碁/兆易创新等其他厂商，但我对ESMT的观点和持仓是，相对于其体量，它是此次短缺的最大受益者。（他们销售NOR：>256Mb） 适度的看空部分是： “对于128Mb及以下的中低容量产品，中国供应商的额外产能正在逐步上线。 因此，消费级产品的价格上涨预计将趋于温和” 然而，这一更新对传统内存厂商的盈利来说，压倒性地看多。 让ASP（平均售价）涨价游戏继续吧。

    英文原文

    NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate” However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players. Let the ASP hike games continue.

    原推 ↗
  10. 个股论点 $SSNLF

    讽刺投资者无视三星长期协议与低估值，仅因AI放缓言论而恐慌卖出。

    曼·雷：你做多三星吗？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：三星拥有延伸至2031年的存储长期协议(LTA)？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：而且它交易在约2.8倍的2027年预期市盈率(P/E)？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：所以你在买入三星？ 帕特里克：不，因为X说AI放缓会导致存储崩盘，我在下跌4%时卖出。

    英文原文

    Man Ray: are you long Samsung? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: Samsung has memory LTAs extending to 2031? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: And it’s trading at ~2.8× 2027E P/E? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung? Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% drop because X said memory will crash from AI slowdown

    原推 ↗

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关于「白毛股神」Serenity

白毛股神（英文 White Hair Stock God）是中文财经社区给美股 X 博主 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) 的称呼，源于他独特的银白发型与一系列在 AI 与半导体供应链上"提前看见瓶颈"的精准判断。

他的研究方法核心是从工程与产业链角度倒推：每一波 AI 算力扩张背后 必然有一个环节产能跟不上，谁卡在那里、谁就握有定价权——他称这些公司为"隐形冠军"。 代表作之一是 2026 年 6 月点名机器人谐波减速器龙头"绿的谐波"后该股迅速成为市场焦点； 光子学 $SIVE（Sivers Semiconductors）在他喊出后三个月内涨幅约 1900%； $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）衬底瓶颈、Coherent $COHR 的 CPO 共封装光学路径， 也是被他早期持续覆盖的代表案例。

本站收录他的全部公开英文推文并自动翻译为中文，按 个股论点、 供应链分析、 方法论、 业绩复盘 四类整理，方便中文读者学习其研究框架。 详细说明 →