个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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eToro 估值极低且现金充裕，业务高速增长，严重被低估。
$ETOR 目前绝对是纳斯达克被低估的公司之一。感觉市场已经把它遗忘了。市值 21 亿美元，净现金 12 亿美元，无债务。这意味着经纪业务估值仅为 9 亿美元。远期企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA) 约为 2.6 倍……而大多数同行估值在 10-15 倍以上。凭借现有的 12 亿美元现金储备，几年内 eToro 的现金将超过其市值。第三季度 (Q3) 单季净收入为 5700 万美元。若以此增速推算……仅需 3.9 年。沃尔玛目前的市盈率 (P/E) 高达 45 倍。更不用说 $ETOR 还在增长（例如资产管理规模 (AUM) 同比增长 76%+）。
英文原文
$ETOR has gotta be one of the most undervalued companies on NASDAQ at this point. Feels like markets just forgot about it. $2.1B MC. Net cash $1.2B, no debt. So you're valuing the brokerage at $900m. Forward EV/EBITDA: ~2.6x... Most are valued at 10-15x+. In a couple years, Etoro will have more cash than their marketcap with their existing $1.2B cash pile. Net income per quarter (Q3) was $57 million. If you use that number growing forward... 3.9 years. Walmart is valued at 45 P/E now. Not to mention $ETOR is growing too. (eg. AUM 76%+ Y/Y).
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质疑$VSH高税率下的利润率转化，并提及Optimus供应链新动态。
我今天刚查了他们的财报，有效税率高达82%……应税收入560万美元，但税费支出却达460万美元。不过这可能是一次性的，因为他们在某些司法管辖区无法抵扣资本支出(capex)，而在其他地区却支付了极高的税费。所以我不太认为极端的需求已经转化为$VSH的利润率。我可能会去查查该领域的其他公司，看看它们的状况是否更好。另外，关于中国Optimus机器人供应链的新消息也出来了，所以原引用TLDR中的大规模生产数字可能已经发生了变化。
英文原文
I just looked up their earnings today, 82% effective tax rate... $5.6M in taxable income, but $4.6M tax expense. But maybe one-off bc they couldn't offset capex in some jurisdictions, while paying extremely high tax in others apparently. So don't quite think extreme demand translated into margins with $VSH. I'll probably look up some other companies in that area to see if they're faring better. Also new news came out regarding Optimus robotics supply chains from China so those mass production numbers in the original quote TLDR might hv changed.
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暴跌重创高贝塔散户持仓，半导体材料股表现稳健
@LivingITMoney 是的，今天的暴跌让许多重仓 $HOOD、$SOFI、$HIMS 或 $PLTR 等股票的散户投资组合遭受重创。通常高贝塔值(高波动性)的个股会率先被拖累下跌。当然，持有 $FORM、$LITE、$AXTI 或 $SNDK 的投资者则稳如泰山 https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
英文原文
@LivingITMoney Yeah, today’s crash wiped out a lot of retail portfolios that have high concentration in stocks like $HOOD, $SOFI, $HIMS, or $PLTR. Lot of high beta names are typically the ones that get dragged down first. Of course others that are in $FORM, $LITE, $AXTI, or $SNDK are chilling https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
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博主在$17建仓$GLXY，明确仅作波段交易而非长期持有。
@DigestingX 我在财报发布前没有持有 $GLXY 的头寸，但现在我在 $17 的价格建仓了。我只是在做波段交易，对我来说这不是长期持有的标的。
英文原文
@DigestingX I didn't have $GLXY positions before earnings, but I do now at $17. I've been just swing trading it, not a hold for me.
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分析$VPG在Optimus供应链中的护城河及被中国供应商替代的风险。
这只是文章的直接引用，我尚未进行深入分析。文中提到了“数百家中国供应商”，因此其他潜在威胁可能包括柯力传感、汉威电子、东华等。 关于 $VPG，我同意，考虑到他们在箔技术方面的护城河，我认为他们被要求提供高端 Optimus 版本。我目前仍持有仓位。 话虽如此，发布风险披露总是好的，以便人们自行研究，因为他们被设计剔除（design out）的可能性并非为零。毕竟 Elon 的目标是 $20K 的 Optimus 实现量产。
英文原文
So that’s just the direct quote from the article, haven’t gone further into analysis. It did mention “hundreds of Chinese suppliers” so other threats may be Keli Sensing, Hanwei Electronics, Donhua, etc. Regarding $VPG, agreed I’d assume they’re required high-end Optimus versions given their moat in their foil tech. And I still have positions. That being said it’s always good to publish risk disclosure so people can do their own research, since the chance they get designed out is nonzero. Elon is targeting $20K Optimus for mass production after all
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确认$VPG与Optimus关联及机构长期看好逻辑
@kacper_kalinski 是的，抱歉，我应该补充说“极有可能”。$VPG 与 Optimus 的关联是由 Citron 发现的。最近我也通过几份提及因 Optimus 而长期看好 $VPG 的机构报告/通讯进行了交叉验证。https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
英文原文
@kacper_kalinski Yes sorry I should have added highly likely. $VPG link to Optimus was found by Citron. And cross checked that with a few institutional reports/newsletters recently that mentioned long $VPG because of Optimus. https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
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澄清AVGO与MRVL因ASIC收入确认时点被误读，看好当前买入机会。
$AVGO 因 ASIC（专用集成电路）积压订单被抛售，但市场误解了其收入确认时点。$MRVL 的逻辑稍显合理，因为据报道微软的 Maia ASIC 延迟了 6 个月，因此收入确认可能会推迟。显然，如果你现在买入并持有一年，就不需要择时，但我在这里也喜欢这两只股票。
英文原文
$AVGO got sold off bc of their ASIC backlog but markets misunderstood how recognition timing works. $MRVL makes a tiny bit more sense bc of Microsoft reportedly had a 6M delay with their Maia asics so revenue recognition might be delayed. Obviously don’t need to time the market if you buy now and just wait a year but I like them both here too
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Google和Meta用自有现金流投入AI基建，优于短期回购，长期价值更高。
对于那些担心 $GOOGL 和 $META “AI资本支出(AI Capex)”的人。Google使用其自有经营现金流($1800亿)为TPU、GCP和数据中心的数据中心建设提供资金是积极的。他们在2025年产生了约$1650亿的现金流。看看 $PYPL 发生了什么，当你只关注通过回购带来的短期股价时。Paypal字面上又发行了$60亿的回购，而股价下跌了20%。像 $META 这样在万亿美元估值下加速收入的基础设施支出是非常值得的。$META 字面上指引了30%+的同比增长。$GOOGL 指引GCP 48%的同比增长，Gemini用户数量飙升（他们去年的主要威胁是ChatGPT）。为未来的投资回报率(ROE)花钱比短期增加股价带来更大的价值。
英文原文
For all the people worrying about "AI Capex" spend with $GOOGL and $META. Google using their OWN operating cash flow ($180B) to fund the AI buildout for TPUs, GCP, and DCs is positive. They generated ~$165B in 2025. Just look at what happened to $PYPL, when you only about short-term share price with buybacks. Paypal literally issued another $6B buyback and the share price is down 20%. Infrastructure spend to accelerate revenue like $META at trillion dollar valuations is incredibly worth. $META literally guided 30%+ Y/Y growth. $GOOGL guided GCP 48% Y/Y growth and Gemini user numbers skyrocketed (their main threat was ChatGPT last year). Spending money for future return on equity delivers much more value than short-term increases on share prices.
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AXTI是光子学扩产隐性受益者，若引入强人管理将更看好。
@MrThomG_ 如果 Martin Shkreli 加入董事会，展示在拥有垄断地位时该如何操作，我会对 $AXTI 更看好。不过，AXT 确实是光子学(CPO)扩产的一个隐性受益者。
英文原文
@MrThomG_ I would be more bullish on $AXTI if Martin Shkreli joined the board to show em how it's done when you have a monopoly. But yeah AXT is a hidden beneficiary on photonics ramp.
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确认LITE和COHR为相关趋势的主要受益标的。
@stefano_kerope 没错，$LITE 和 $COHR 是此趋势的主要受益者。https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE
英文原文
@stefano_kerope True, $LITE and $COHR are large beneficiaries from this. https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE
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SNAP因高额SBC和债务问题破坏估值模型，回购被视为危险信号。
我将 $SNAP 的 GCP 运营支出削减和内存货币化纳入自由现金流(FCF)模型，结合与 Perplexity 的交易，其未来看起来被低估。但向“人才”和高管发行数十亿美元的股票薪酬(SBC) -> 进一步增加债务（尤其是那5亿美元回购）-> 支付额外的债务利息，彻底破坏了该模型。这一切取决于 Evan 是否能显著降低 SBC。但在我看来，那5亿美元的回购是一个危险信号，而非利好。
英文原文
I modeled $SNAP GCP opex cuts and memory monetization into FCF and it looked undervalued moving forward with the Perplexity deal. But issuing billions in SBC to "Talent" and executives -> going into further debt (especially the $500M buyback) -> paying additional debt interest blows that model apart. This is all in the hands of Evan to make that change if he lowers SBC notably. But the $500M buyback is a red flag to me instead of a positive thing to me.
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SNAP借债回购掩盖高额股权激励，实质是财富转移，建议回避。
$SNAP 刚刚发布财报并宣布5亿美元股票回购计划。 回购是一个危险信号。 Q4 报告： - 营收：17.16亿美元（+10%） - 自由现金流(FCF)：2.06亿美元（+13%） - 净利润：4500万美元 - 毛利率：59% $SNAP 确认了2.572亿美元的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)，年末SBC总额达10.17亿美元。 如果 $SNAP 用现金而非股票支付员工/高管薪酬，其季度“自由现金流”实际上将是-5100万美元。 你看到的是30亿美元的资产负债表，但他们净现金为-4.9亿美元，因为他们正借入35亿美元以上的长期债务来进行回购。 这与 $META 或 $NVDA 利用资产负债表多余资本进行的回购不同。 这是为了抵消授予高管和“人才”的股票期权。 他们为债务支付的市场利率为6.875%。 仅用于“回购”的债务利息现在每季度超过3000万美元，即每年1.2亿美元以上。 财报看起来很棒，但股票薪酬造成的视觉错觉让现实显得糟糕透顶。 我个人不会投资维多利亚的秘密模特的私人存钱罐。
英文原文
$SNAP Just reported earnings and issued a $500M share buyback. The buyback is a red flag. Q4 Report: - Revenue: $1.716 Billion (+10%) - FCF: $206M (+13%) - Net Income: $45M - Gross Margins: 59% $SNAP recognized $257.2 million in STOCK BASED COMPENSATION, ending the year with $1.017 billion in SBC. If $SNAP paid employees/executives in cash instead of stock, If their "Free Cash Flow" for the quarter would actually be -$51M. You see a $3B balance sheet, but they are net cash -$490 Million, because they are going into $3.5B+ in long term debt to do buybacks. These are not $META or $NVDA buybacks because of excess capital from their balance sheet. It's to offset any stock grants going to their executives and "Talent". They are paying market rates of (6.875%) for their debt. That debt interest is now over $30M+ a quarter, so $120m+ a year just for "buybacks". Earnings look great, but the stock compensation optical illusion makes the reality look horrendous. I would personally not invest in a Victoria Secret model's private piggy bank.
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看好SNDK高增长潜力，认为其估值低且具历史重演性。
在我看来，估值最低的是SK海力士，增长最快的是$SNDK，最安全的是$MU和三星。 我是$SNDK的忠实粉丝。其固态硬盘(SSD)及后续的混合总线闪存(HBF)让我想起了最初的建设阶段，当时大家都在争相堆叠英伟达GPU。 这种感觉就像既视感(dejavu)。其增长轨迹可能是所有存储股中最高的，我认为他们2026年的远期市盈率(double digit forward p/e)是个位数，但到2027年会降至6.5左右。 财报发布后，其股价创下了历史新低。
英文原文
Imo most undervalued = SK Hynix, fastest growth = $SNDK, safest = $MU, Samsung Big fan of $SNDK. Ssds and later hbf reminds me of initial buildout where everyone was fighting to stack Nvidia GPUs. This feels like dejavu. Growth trajectory is probably the highest out of any memory play, think they’re double digit forward p/e in 2026 but goes down to like 6.5 or so in 2027. It’s cheaper than ever post earnings.
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SK海力士远期PE仅4.5倍，认为估值未被充分定价。
@ChiefLiquidity 下一个海力士(Hynix)...就是SK海力士(SK Hynix)。 考虑到2026年的远期市盈率(P/E)预计约为4.5倍，我认为市场尚未完全反映这一预期。
英文原文
@ChiefLiquidity The next Hynix.. is SK Hynix. I don’t quite think it’s been priced in yet considering forward p/e for 2026 is projected to be ~4.5.
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建议放弃逆向股，重仓三星和SK海力士等AI存储巨头。
老实说，光看这份预估净利润图表…… 让人不禁疑惑，为什么人们还要试图全仓押注像 $PYPL、$FIG 或 $DUOL 这样的逆向反转交易？ 我觉得，坐在像三星或 SK 海力士这样盈利且超增长的公司里“躺平”，才是最容易做的事？ 它们相比“七巨头(Mag7)”规模相对较小，但预计将在 2027 年成为全球最盈利的公司。 有时候，最好的做法就是参与这些显而易见的交易，开启“简单模式”的生活。
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Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart… Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do? They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027. Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.
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CLARITY法案监管风险是CRCL最大看空因素。
主要需关注的是《清晰法案》(CLARITY act) 及其对收益的监管限制。这可能是 $CRCL 最大的看空论点，涉及交易所利用漏洞为 USDC 存款提供利息。若叠加降息与供应减少，将对 Circle 造成重创。但监管始终是加密货币领域的悬顶之剑。
英文原文
The main thing to look out for is CLARITY act and regulating away any yield. Probably the biggest bear case for $CRCL regarding loopholes exchange use to give interest for USDC deposits. If you combine that with rate cuts + lower supply,then that hurts Circle a lot. But regulation is always one of the overhangs with crypto.
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指出SNDK散户做空比例极高。
@traderofstox $SNDK 散户空头无处不在！ https://t.co/Ai1TkF6QmX
英文原文
@traderofstox $SNDK retail shorts are everywhere! https://t.co/Ai1TkF6QmX
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英特尔称内存瓶颈将持续至2028，暗示存储股强劲做多信号。
X 上的散户真的需要停止做空 $SNDK 了。 英特尔 CEO 曾毓群刚刚在思科 AI 峰会上表示： “现实是，内存是目前 AI 最大的瓶颈……结构性供应紧张，至少在 2028 年之前都没有缓解迹象。” 英特尔 CEO 谈论 $MU、SK 海力士、三星的瓶颈，并指出 ***两年后*** 才可能缓解，这大概是你最强的做多信号。
英文原文
Retail on X really need to stop shorting $SNDK. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan just said at Cisco's AI Summit: "The reality is that memory is the biggest constraint for AI right now... structural supply crunch with no relief until at least 2028". Intel CEO talking about $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung bottleneck that there's no relief until ***2 years later*** is probably your biggest long signal.
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市场恐慌中 $SNDK 逆势上涨，建议利用恐惧寻找入场点。
$SNDK 简直不知道什么是“下跌日”。 股市在 $PYPL 今日暴跌 20.7%+ 后已进入“恐惧”区域。 加密市场在 $COIN 和 $MSTR 过去三个月分别暴跌 48% 和 51% 后，现已进入“极度恐惧”状态。 散户看起来正在恐慌。 现金是一种持仓策略，但本应在一周前就采取。 现在可能是寻找入场点的好时机。尤其是当“恐惧”已经压倒了基本面时。
英文原文
$SNDK literally doesn’t know what a red day means. https://t.co/W1SCKBmQLE
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CRDO盘中大跌11%，作者认为属恐慌性抛售并计划买入。
@AndrewP64090323 可能正处于“恐慌性抛售一切，一切都结束了”的阶段。 $CRDO 今天迄今已下跌 11%，这很疯狂，我个人会在这些价位买入。 https://t.co/y96M174lG4
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@AndrewP64090323 Probably at a “Panic Sell Everything It’s All Over”. Crazy $CRDO is down 11% so far today, I’d be personally buying at these levels. https://t.co/y96M174lG4
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认为COIN接近4月关税底部$171，决定在此价位买入。
@dexapiko 我们正接近 $COIN 在 4 月关税(Tariff)底部的 $171 价位。此前唯一一次触及该水平是在 2024 年 9 月，当时价格为 $150。我在此价位买入。https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2
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@dexapiko We’re close to the April Tariff bottom at $171 now for $COIN. Only other time it hit that was September 2024 for $150. I’m a buyer here https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2
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资金流出已反映在CRCL股价中
@AI_PowerFlow 我们确实看到资金流出40亿美元，从730亿美元降至690亿美元（因此出现下跌），但这已很大程度上反映在 $CRCL 股价中。 https://t.co/9kAZXxSald
英文原文
@AI_PowerFlow We did see -$4B outflows from $73B -> $69B from last month (hence the drop) but largely priced into $CRCL stock price. https://t.co/9kAZXxSald
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简述CRCL的FinX要点。
@Kevin60162526 关于 $CRCL 的 FinX 要点简述。https://t.co/i5NxQFmJ7D
英文原文
@Kevin60162526 FinX with $CRCL in a nutshell. https://t.co/i5NxQFmJ7D
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看好CRCL重置后的估值，预计稳定币需求持续增长。
我非常、非常喜欢 $CRCL 在 54 美元的价格。估值已完全重置回 120 亿美元市值。当价格在 150-200 美元时，大家都在抢购，但在 54 美元时，这里却无人问津。USDC 供应量仍超过 700 亿美元，我预计稳定币的使用将继续增长。https://t.co/R2Habycf7d
英文原文
I really, really like $CRCL at $54. Valuation has been completely reset back to $12B MC. Everyone was rushing to buy it back at $150-200 but at $54, it's a ghost town. USDC supply still $70B+ and I expect stablecoins to continue growing in usage. https://t.co/R2Habycf7d
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质疑以色列半导体公司估值脱节及持续下跌原因
是的，对于 $VLN，现金加库存占其市值的绝大部分（未包含IP等其他资产）。它是无晶圆厂半导体公司，营收8000万美元，机器人/工业垂直领域毛利率很高。因此当前估值存在极端脱节。 我最近发了一篇帖子，质疑市场为何像对待 $ETOR 那样，如果是以色列公司，即便现在大部分是现金，也基本不给核心业务估值。 所以简而言之：完全不知道发生了什么，以及为什么以色列公司一直在跌。
英文原文
Yes for $VLN, cash + inventory makes up majority of its MC not including other assets like IP. They’re fabless semi, $80m revenue, high gross margin for robotics/industrial vertical. So current valuation has an extreme disconnect. I put out another post recently questioning how markets basically assign no value to the core business like $ETOR if they’re Israeli when they’re majority cash now. So TLDR: no clue what’s going on and why companies from Israel keep dropping.
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做多AEHR博弈存储与光子机会，MRVL因客户ASIC延期推迟至下半年建仓。
我目前做多 $AEHR，以防三大存储巨头将其用于 HBM DRAM 裸片老化测试，或超大规模云厂商扩大 Sonoma 的使用。此外，硅光子学也是另一个关注领域。因此，这更像是一个投机性的“登月”选择，旨在观察其能否与 Advantest 和 $TER 竞争。至于 $MRVL，我喜欢它，但我认为更适合等到 2026 年下半年再建仓。有报道称 $MSFT Maia 路线图延迟了约半年，而 Marvell 预期的收入增长很大一部分依赖于该超大规模云厂商的特定 ASIC 项目。因此，我将在今年晚些时候重新评估它。
英文原文
I'm actually long $AEHR right now in the event any of the big three memory companies use them for HBM DRAM die burn in or hyperscalers expands Sonoma usage. Then there's silicon photonics, which is another area of interest. So it's more of a speculative moonshot pick to see if it can compete with Advantest and $TER. As for $MRVL, I like it but I find it more of a wait until H2 2026 long. There were reports $MSFT Maia faced roadmap longer delays by like half a year and a large part of marvell's expected revenue growth is tethered to this specific hyperscaler ASIC program. So I'll revisit it later on in the year.
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修正对$SSYS看法，转向偏好高BOM价值的$VPG以捕捉机器人量产红利。
之前在 $SSYS 上犯了个错，误以为他们为机器人原型打印框架。 他们更像是机器人领域的 $ASML（阿斯麦）。 关于机器人量产爬坡（每生产一个人形机器人），我发过一篇帖子，将 $SSYS 替换为 $VPG，并引用了 @SigniaCapital 关于 Optimus 应用的分析。 其中提到，每生产一台机器人（$TSLA Optimus），他们预计每台获利约 500-1200 美元。 话虽如此，我确信 $SSYS 是个不错的长线标的，毕竟有位著名的政治家看准了一切，其投资组合中持有 $SSYS。 但我不像以前那样看好了，我更希望直接参与具有高物料清单(BOM)价值的机器人量产环节，而非初期的原型制作。
英文原文
So made the mistake earlier with $SSYS regarding the fact they print the frames for the prototypes of the robotics. They're more like an $ASML for robotics. For the robotics ramp (each humanoid produced), I made a post switching $SSYS with $VPG and quoted @SigniaCapital's analysis regarding applications for Optimus. There was a quote that for each robot ( $TSLA Optimus) produced, they make est. ~$500-$1.2K per robot. That being said, I'm sure it's a good long, there's one famous politician that got everything right and has $SSYS in their portfolio. But I'm not as bullish as I once was I wanted exposure to the direct robotics ramp with high BOM rather than initial prototyping.
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看好AXTI作为光子学InP材料瓶颈，预计2026下半年因需求激增出现短缺。
我持有 $AXTI 的多头头寸。 今天我们正目睹 $SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士和三星带来的 HBM/NAND 超级周期，由于需求极度旺盛，价格持续上涨。 下一个是什么？-> 光子学 | 共封装光学(CPO) | 光互连。 需求规模呈现抛物线式增长。（Lightcounting 数据） 我对 AXT 的投资逻辑是：它是从磷化铟(InP)衬底到前驱体供应链的材料瓶颈。而 LightCounting 在过去几个月将需求预测翻了三倍。 这是一个物理/材料问题。 未来，西方供应链可以通过硅光子(SiPh)或 $POET 中介层来减少 InP 衬底/原料的使用。但超大规模云服务商无法绕过这一限制。 目前，中游瓶颈如 $LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等依赖住友 | JX（日本）等西方供应链。 但这些公司使用的许多前驱体源自中国。在中国最近的出口管制后，日本公司虽有部分产能，但缺乏原料前驱体，他们可能正在消耗库存（约1年，无公开信息）。 但随着超大规模云服务商需求激增，库存将耗尽，使 $AXTI 掌握更多供应链控制权。 我们已经看到 $NVDA 确保了 EML 产能（使用 InP）。CPO CW 激光器、SOA 和其他组件也使用 InP。 “短缺”瓶颈正是 $AXTI 卡脖子的 InP 晶圆产线。 根据预测，我预计超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年开始为 2028 年的扩张储备库存，导致 2026 年下半年供应短缺。 $AXTI 的主要问题在于出口管制 + 60 天行政延迟。中国可能正通过 $AXTI 出牌，迫使美国超大规模云服务商依赖其供应链而非日本。 这在财报前的延迟收入确认中体现为双刃剑。但这些出口管制对住友等竞争对手伤害最大。 即使上游没有看到 100% 的月度涨价，基准情形下 InP 衬底和前驱体需求的增加也将提升 AXT 的营收底线。 AXT 仍是我对 2027 年及以后即将到来的超大规模光子学扩张最看多的材料瓶颈标的。 起初我认为这只是一个短期的风险对冲交易，但在研究了涉及光子学的新数据和架构后，我认为 $AXTI 将是未来 AI 建设的关键参与者。 我的逻辑可能过早，或者这恰恰是拐点。
英文原文
I'm long shares on $AXTI. We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today. With constant price hikes due to extreme demand. The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects. Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting) My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months. This is a physics/material problem. In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it. Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan). But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information). But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI. We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP. The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints. Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026. $AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan. This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most. Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward. Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward. My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.
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探讨PLTR高估值是否已反映增长预期及政府合同风险。
我很欣赏对 $PLTR 的坚定信念！可能之前错过了，但你对它的投资逻辑是什么？ 他们同比增长 70%，这太疯狂了，但我好奇你是否认为随着市值（MC）的扩大，增长预期已经像 $HOOD 因加密货币收入担忧从 140 美元下跌那样被完美定价了？ 据我所见，远期市盈率（Forward P/E）仍在 ~128-132 倍左右。 如果他们能像其他承包商那样保持复利增长，我认为论点成立（例如 40 法则），但我看到的最大风险可能是下一届政府更迭带来的合同变化（因此友好政府的顺风可能消失，因为政府合同约占收入的 66%）。 许多进步派民主党人似乎都在批评 Palantir。
英文原文
I love the conviction on $PLTR! Probably missed it before but what's your thesis on it? They're growing 70% Y/Y, which is insane, but curious if you think growth is already priced into perfection with the MC (as seen with $HOOD's drop from $140 off crypto rev concerns). Forward P/E from what I've seen is still around ~128-132x. If they could keep compounding like other contractors, I see the argument would make sense eg. rule of 40, but biggest risk I see might be next administration change w/contracts (so tailwind from friendly Admin might disappear and since gov contracts was ~66% of rev). Lot of progressive democrats seem to criticize Palantir.
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若达摩根士丹利EPS预测且存储周期持续，上行空间巨大。
@Alisvolatprop12 哇，那是一笔惊人的数量，且上行空间巨大！ 如果他们在2027年达到摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测的每股收益(EPS)，且存储超级周期(memory supercycle)持续，我可以看到这种情况发生。
英文原文
@Alisvolatprop12 Wow that’s an incredible amount and a lot of upside! I can see that happening if they hit Morgan Stanley’s projected EPS in 2027 and memory supercycle continues