个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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$EWY因三星/SK海力士传导效应被低估，建议买入2028年OTM看涨期权。
感觉很多人误解了这篇帖子中的深度研究(DD)： 核心观点：$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)可能会保持高位。 目前实现波动率(Realized Volatility)可能在60%高段至70%低段。 长期可能稳定在~55%，因为： 尽管有任何重新加权，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的传导集中度(pass through concentration)巨大。 随着SK海力士权重增加，其他主要持仓如SK Square（因其持有20%股份，其市值的90%来自SK海力士股票）的权重也会增加。 三星的情况也是如此。 表面上看两者上限为50%，但传导结构(pass through structures)会大幅放大该价值。 尽管有新权重，随着传导结构导致其市值上升，$EWY将越来越成为SK海力士/三星的看涨期权(call option)。 2028年虚值(OTM)LEAPS期权作为波动性存储名称的看涨期权，其40%低段的IV定价被低估。 并且很可能从当前水平的Vega扩张中受益。
英文原文
Feels like a lot of people misunderstood the DD in this post: Main point: $EWY IV will likely stay elevated. Currently realized is probably in the high 60’s, low 70’s. Long term likely settles ~55% because: Pass through concentration in SK Hynix and Samsung is enormous despite any re-weighting. As SK Hynix increases, other top weightings like SK Square (90% of its MC comes from SK Hynix equity since it’s a 20% shareholder) will increase. Same with Samsung. It looks like 50% max for them both, but pass through structures balloons that value a lot. Despite new weights, $EWY will increasingly become a call option on SK Hynix / Samsung as their MCs go up from pass-through structure. 2028 OTM leaps are mispriced at low 40’s IV as a call on volatile memory names. And will likely benefit from Vega expansion at current levels.
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SK海力士估值过高，应重基本面而非图表。
@AntoineLavenant 这是韩国指数，不是某种随机的迷因股(meme stock)。SK海力士(SK Hynix)上周市值达4000亿美元，预计明年利润将超过 $AAPL。所以我认为还有很大的下行空间。更重要的是关注基本面而非图表。
英文原文
@AntoineLavenant It’s the South Korea index not some random meme stock. SK Hynix was a $400B company last week and projected to make more than $AAPL next year. So I think there’s some ways to go. More important to look at fundamentals over the chart
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对比UTES、AIPO与XLU，认为XLU隐含波动率最低。
@shivprakash 查看了其他类似 $UTES 的标的，它是第二好的选择，因为它有更多的独立电力生产商(IPP)敞口，以及 $AIPO（没有期权链）。但波动率最低且适合捕捉波动的还是 $XLU。
英文原文
@shivprakash looked at others like $UTES which was the second best as it had more IPP exposure and $AIPO (no option chain). But lowest IV for movement was $XLU
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Reddit基本面低估且未受AI冲击，建议长期持有而非短期投机。
没有催化剂。只是基本面被低估，远期市盈率在25-30倍，而他们的净利润是收入的1/3，且收入同比增长约70%。 Reddit是少数未被AI颠覆却随板块抛售的软件股之一。 话虽如此，市场短期内并不总是对你有利，这就是为什么周期权是个坏主意。 长期来看，如果你做了研究，他们应该方向正确。
英文原文
There’s no catalyst. Just fundamentally undervalued at 25-30 forward p/e when their net income is 1/3rd revenue, and they grew revenue ~70% Y/Y. Reddit is one of the few software names not disrupted by AI but sold off in the bucket. That being said, markets don’t always play in your favor in the short term, which is why weekly options are a bad idea. Long term they should be directionally right if you do the research.
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XLU为电网扩张结构性多头，EWY押注定价错误致波动率扩张。
@Yannis_ko $XLU 更多是源于电力/电网投资和扩张的结构性增量（方向性做多）交易。 $EWY 则是对定价错误导致的波动率扩张的押注。
英文原文
@Yannis_ko $XLU is more of a structural delta (directional long) play from power/grid investments and expansion. $EWY was a call on volatility expansion from mispricing.
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分析$EWY隐含波动率低估，建议做多2028年虚值看涨期权以捕捉波动率扩张及三星/SK海力士上涨红利。
2028年$EWY的隐含波动率(IV)可能会大幅上升（目前约44%）。 实际波动率(Realized Volatility)的定价应在~65-68%+。 因此，仅凭波动率 Vega 扩张，2028年虚值(OTM)长期看涨期权(LEAP Call)的价值可能会再次翻倍。 大多数人没有意识到这一点，但其前十大持仓包括： 1. SK Square（集中度排名第5）。其净资产(NAV)的90%是SK海力士(SK Hynix)。 2. 三星生命保险，作为三星电子最大股东之一，其净资产与之挂钩。 3. 三星C&T（$EWY的重要组成部分）持有三星约5%的股份作为其净资产。 4. 三星火灾海上保险：持有三星电子1.49%的股份（鉴于三星电子体量巨大，这构成了其净资产的很大一部分）。 5. 三星C&T -> 拥有三星生命（间接持有三星电子）。 6. 三星电机 / 三星SDS -> 很大程度上与三星电子的资本支出(Capex)周期绑定。 7. 三星电子优先股 - 无投票权优先股被视为独立实体，但权重增加。 SK海力士和三星权重的穿透集中度显著高于算法和市场的认知。 你会看到，实际波动率并非如此，因为具有广泛分散性的指数不会随着三星/SK海力士的表现而每天上下波动6%。或者2个月内波动42%... 或者12个月内波动145%... 如果ETF按季度再平衡，你会看到更多权重流入像SK海力士这样波动性更大的名称，以及那些将三星和SK海力士作为净资产的小型所有者的权重上升幅度更大。 这又因做市商(MMs)尚未定价的未实现波动率而加剧，来源包括： - 10倍杠杆的三星/SK海力士永续合约。 - 2倍杠杆的三星/SK海力士ETF即将获批和发行。 动态对冲这两者将增加三星+SK海力士的波动率，并通过二阶效应 -> $EWY。 所以说它是“SK指数”基本上就是三星和SK海力士，并非玩笑。 而44%的IV定价来自平坦的韩国10年期指数。 当来自存储超级周期的新波动率成为结构性时。 TLDR： - 做多虚值看涨期权实际上是以44% IV买入SK海力士/三星的看涨期权。 - 单独来看，它们的IV可能在73-88%左右。 - 考虑到其他成分股，实际IV可能处于60%中段。 - 如果2028年虚值看涨期权的IV从44%上升到65%+，仅波动率扩张就会增加期权价值。 - 市场有时存在真正的低效，这看起来就是其中之一。 这是一笔波动率扩张交易，加上在未来两年的存储、机器人、晶圆代工超级周期中做多SK海力士/三星的额外好处。
英文原文
2028 IV for $EWY will likely go much higher (~44% right now). Realized should be priced around ~65-68%+. So, 2028 OTM leap call value may double again from volatility Vega Expansion alone. Most people don’t this but top holdings include: 1. SK Square (#5 concentration). 90% of their NAV is SK Hynix. 2. Samsung Life Insurance, NAV as one of the largest shareholders of Samsung Electronics. 3. Samsung C&T (large part of $EWY) owns ~5% of Samsung as its NAV. 4. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: 1.49% stake in Samsung Electronics (given how big Samsung Electronics is, it makes up a large part of NAV) 5. Samsung C&T -> owns Samsung Life (which indirectly owns Samsung Electronics) 6. Samsung Electro-Mechanics / Samsung SDS -> Largely tethered to Samsung Electronics Capex cycles. 7. Samsung Electronics Preferred Shares - Non-voting preferred shares are treated as separate entities, but increases in weighting. Pass through concentration of SK Hynix and Samsung weightings is significantly higher than algorithms and markets think. And you see that realized, as Indexes with broad diversification don’t go up and down 6% a day depending on Samsung/Sk Hynix performance. Or 42% in 2 months... or 145% in 12 months... If the ETF rebalances quarterly, you get more weighting into more volatile names like SK Hynix and the weighting of smaller owners that own Samsung and SK Hynix as NAV go up more than others. This is compounded with unrealized volatility that MMs have not priced in yet from: - 10x Leverage Samsung / Sk Hynix perps now. - 2x leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix ETFs approvals and release soon. Dynamically hedging both of these will increase volatility on Samsung + SK Hynix and by second order effect -> $EWY. So, it's not a joke when you say its SK Index is basically Samsung and Sk Hynix. And that 44% IV pricing comes from the flat 10 year Korean index. When the new volatility from the memory supercycle is structural. TLDR: - Long OTM calls is effectively calls on Sk Hynix/Samsung at 44% IV. - Individually they likely sit around 73-88%. - When you account for other names, realized IV may sit in the mid 60's. - Vega expansion on 2028 OTM calls if they go from 44% to 65%+ would increase option values from volatility expansion alone. - There are genuine inefficiencies with the markets sometimes and this looks like one of them. This is a volatility expansion trade coupled with the added benefit of long SK Hynix/Samsung during the memory, robotics, foundry supercycles for the next two years.
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LITE长期低估但短期超买，市场抢跑过度。
@ValarMorghuliz9 如果快进两年，$LITE 被严重低估。但就目前而言，它可能略微超买，而且我认为市场已经进行了一些过度的抢跑交易。
英文原文
@ValarMorghuliz9 $LITE is very undervalued if you fast forward 2 years. But as of now, it’s probably a tad overextended and markets have done a bit too much frontrunning imo.
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AXTI 2027-28 年有望因光子学放量及出口管制受益。
@crypticTooth 我之前分享过这张图表，但基本上 2027-2028 年才是 $AXTI 真正有趣的时候，可能伴随类似存储芯片的价格上涨。这只是在光子学(CPO)放量以及中国出口管制开始生效之前的初步尽职调查(DD)。 https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh
英文原文
@crypticTooth I’ve shared this graph before but basically 2027-2028 is where the real fun should begin with $AXTI + possible memory-style price hikes. This is just early DD before the photonics ramp + China export controls should start kicking into gear. https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh
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看好2026年电力板块因AI需求及降息带来的异常表现。
我认为2026年对于极其平淡的电力/电网(Utilities/Grid)板块来说可能是一个异常年份，原因在于该领域过度的资本支出(capex)、去年开始的降息在今年影响盈利，以及AI推理(AI inference)的极端需求。所以时间会证明这笔交易是否成功！我首次发帖时隐含波动率(IV)约为14%。
英文原文
I do think 2026 could be an anomaly for the extremely boring power/grid because of excessive capex into the sector, rate cuts from last year -> this year hitting earnings, and extreme demand for AI inference. So time will tell if the trade turns out well! IV was ~14% when I first posted.
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澄清持有RPI基于财务逻辑，反对将其视为迷因股。
是的，我持有 $RPI。它在我投资组合中的占比非常小。 让我感到愤怒的是这种观点：“对公司本身的喜爱胜过其财务表现或潜力”。 整个投资逻辑（Thesis）都是围绕从收入增长到总可服务市场（TAM）的未定价财务数据展开的。 我宁愿看到像树莓派（Raspberry Pi）这样盈利的无晶圆厂半导体（Fabless Semi）公司，不要仅仅因为媒体想要编造故事而变成一只迷因股（Meme Stock）。
英文原文
Yes I own $RPI. It’s a very small weighting in my portfolio. What gets me riled up is this: "fondness for the company itself rather than financial performance or potential". The whole thesis was around unpriced financials from revenue growth to TAM. I’d rather not have a profitable fabless semi like Raspberry Pi turn into a meme stock just because the media wants to make something up.
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嘲笑媒体错误对比RPI与DELL市盈率，批评评论员不专业。
@britplay 今天《金融时报》(FT) 又有一篇试图将 $RPI 与 $DELL 的市盈率(P/E)进行比较的文章，我简直笑出声来。显然，许多市场评论员根本不知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
@britplay There was another one from FT today trying to compare P/E ratios with $RPI to $DELL and I just burst out laughing. Clearly a lot of the market writers have no clue what they’re talking about
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澄清媒体误将$RPI基本面逻辑扭曲为迷因股炒作。
《每日电讯报》今天发布了一篇关于树莓派（$RPI）的新文章。 虽然我很感激被称为“AI极客”…… 但我不理解为什么媒体普遍试图将树莓派框架化为“迷因股（Meme stock）”？ 整个论点（Thesis）的核心是：随着OpenClaw变体成为首选硬件，总可寻址市场（TAM）正在扩张。 在财务方面，论点在于如果囤货持续，营收数字如何能从预期的14%增长提升至温和的48-55%。 我原始论点中的直接引语是：这将是“反转的顺风（tailwind for a reversal）”，且“营收应受益于需求增加”。 这是逐字引用的。 我不理解像《金融时报》这样的媒体机构如何能从上述内容转变为从未说过的虚假评论。 对于《金融时报》：他们插入了关于“可被框架化为对立面的大型空头”的虚假评论。 对于《每日电讯报》：他们插入了诸如“对公司本身的喜爱而非财务表现或潜力”的虚假评论。 我不确定大型媒体机构为何不被要求更高的标准，却能随意捏造评论？ 再次强调，$AAPL Mac Mini作为AI编排（orchestration）硬件的囤货不会对苹果营收造成显著影响（因为它是3.7万亿美元市值的公司）。 然而，这对像$RPI这样的公司是实质性的（material）。 这就是核心论点。 OpenClaw和AI代理/集群（swarms）驱动树莓派销量增加（更重要的是，作为长期催化剂），这可能导致营收预测超预期+重估（re-rating）。 多家媒体机构极其不诚实地进行框架化，包括添加捏造的评论。 这是一个基本面、高度具体的论点，但多家媒体机构决定完全随机地捏造内容，将树莓派描绘成迷因股。
英文原文
The Telegraph put out a new piece today about Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) While I appreciate being called an "AI Nerd"... I don't understand why they all in common try and frame Raspberry Pi as a "Meme stock?" The whole thesis was around TAM expansion from OpenClaw variants as the hardware of choice. For financials, it was how revenue numbers could increase beyond projected numbers from "14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues." Direct quote from my original thesis: this would be a "tailwind for a reversal" and "revenue should benefit from increased demand". This was verbatim. I don't understand how media outlets like Financial Times can go from that -> into fake commentary that was never said. For FT: they inserted false commentary about "big shorts that can be frame as opposition" For The Telegraph: they inserted false commentary like "fondness for the company itself rather than financial performance or potential". I'm not sure how large media outlets aren't held to higher standards and are able to just make up commentary? Once again, $AAPL Mac Mini as AI orchestration hardware hoarding wouldn't make a dent on Apple revenue (as it's a $3.7T company). However, it's material to a company like $RPI. That's the core thesis. OpenClaw and AI agents/swarms drives an increase in sales of Raspberry PI (and better yet, as a long term cataylst), which would likely cause revenue projection beats + re-rating. Extremely disingenuous framing by multiple outlets, including adding made-up commentary. This was a fundamental, highly-specific argument, but multiple media outlets just decided to make up something completely random to paint Raspberry Pi as a Meme Stock.
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XLU走势缓慢无需急，电力电网瓶颈或延续至2028年。
@Trylanol 老实说，我不认为这笔交易需要太多紧迫感，$XLU 的走势像恐龙一样缓慢。这只是众多交易思路中的一个！ 如果你自己决定，可能半年后入场也行。电力/电网在通往 2028 年的过程中很可能依然是瓶颈。
英文原文
@Trylanol I don't think this is a trade that requires much urgency tbh, $XLU moves like a dinosaur. This is just one trade idea of many! Probably could enter this like half a year later too if you decide for yourself. Power/grid is likely a bottleneck going into 2028 as well.
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@Ren_aramb 是的，电力/电网极其无聊。自1990年代以来仅上涨200%，因此隐含波动率(IV)定价极低。 我只是认为，随着AI推理/训练加速、超大规模云厂商资本支出以及降息，$XLU 可能正处于历史上独特的时刻。 我不知道我是否正确，我们拭目以待。 https://t.co/qhBgCX5bFo
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Yeah power/grid is extremely boring. Only up 200% since the 1990s so IV is priced extremely low. I just think AI inference/training ramp alongside hyperscaler capex + rate cuts might just be that unique moment in history with $XLU I don't know if I'm right or not, we'll see. https://t.co/qhBgCX5bFo
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看好电力板块ETF $XLU，认为电网升级带来定价权，属两年期交易。
几点看法： 1. 表后储能(behind the meter)似乎只是应对AI数据中心(AI DCs)巨大吉瓦(GW)级电力需求的权宜之计。 2. 电网(grid)需要大规模升级难道不是看空理由吗？这可能反而赋予它们更强的定价权(pricing power)。 3. 小型模块化反应堆(SMR)和固态氧化物电解池(SOEC)可能要到2029年之后才普及，这是一个为期2年的交易机会。 $XLU是一只ETF，所以我不需要像挑选$BE那样去精选个股。我做多的是电力/电网板块，而不是押注具体的个股。
英文原文
few things: 1. behind the meter seems like a bandaid for the massive GW power required by AI DCs. 2. grid needing massive upgrades isn't a bear case? probably gives them even more pricing power 3. soec and smr are probably later on past 2029, this is a 2year trade. $XLU is an ETF so I don't need to pick individual winners like $BE. I'm long power/grid as a sector rather than getting the individual names right.
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分享电力板块宏观看多观点及期权交易风控建议
是否自行交易取决于你的风险管理（通常实值期权更稳妥）。我想分享我对电力/电网作为多头方向的宏观观点，且鉴于历史表现，$XLU 波动率较低。若使用限价单交易深度虚值期权，请务必注意价差。通常较低行权价因流动性更好，隐含波动率(IV)更接近正常的~14%。
英文原文
Up for you to decide based on risk management if you want to do the trade yourself (more ITM usually the safer it is). Just wanted to present my own macro thesis on power/grid as a long and that $XLU has low volatility given previous history. Just be really careful about spread with limit ordersif you go very OTM. Usually the lower strikes have a more normal ~14% IV given they're more liquid.
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建议用$XLU虚值期权博取电力板块高回报，优于个股。
这是一种风险更高的选择，旨在通过在波动率极低的ETF $XLU 中使用虚值期权(OTM options)来获取最大回报，从而获得美国电力/电网领域的敞口。即使 $VST、$CEG 或 $TLN 翻倍，你也无法获得同样的回报。使用ETF无需挑选个别赢家，整个板块都应受益。
英文原文
This is a riskier option for maximum returns using OTM options in an extremely low volatility ETF in $XLU for US power/grid exposure. You won't get the same returns from $VST, $CEG, or $TLN, even if they double. Don't need to pick individual winners with ETFs, sector as a whole should benefit.
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看好$XLU虚值长期期权，因AI电力需求爆发叠加降息周期带来历史性机遇。
如果我要在1年内将10万美元变成100万美元。 我会选择：$XLU 虚值(OTM) 2年期长期期权(LEAPS) 2026年是现代市场历史上首次同时出现： - 利率下降 - AI推理(AI Inference) + 基础设施建设 通过映射分析，$XLU 有潜在约40%的涨幅（虚值期权可能带来1000%+的收益）。 这是我的宏观论点： 1. 降息 当美联储在不引发衰退的情况下降息时，公用事业公司的债务成本降低，机构投资者会将低收益的现金转向公用事业股息。 这会导致估值倍数立即扩张： 1995年：标普公用事业板块(S&P Utilities)在1995年回报+31.3%，1996年再+12.1%——累计回报约47% 2019年中周期降息：结果：$XLU 在该年产生+25.9%的总回报 标准的软着陆降息周期自然映射为25%至30%的基础回报。而我们要进入2026年的新降息周期。 2. 基础设施超级周期资本支出(CapEx) 基础设施资本支出为该板块带来复合盈利增长。继2000年代初之后，公用事业公司进入大规模资本支出周期以现代化老化的电网基础设施。 由于他们不断支出并扩大其受监管的费率基数(rate base)，$XLU 在2004年回报+23.5%，2005年+16.3%，2006年+20.8%，2007年+18.4%。 然而这一次： 2026年8000多亿美元的AI建设支出，使得2004年的电网现代化看起来像零钱一样微不足道。 因此，你有来自#1降息的估值倍数扩张（+15%至+20%），以及来自#2资本支出历史数据的每股收益(EPS)增长（+18%至+20%）。仅从历史教训来看。 但2026年是历史上AI使用带来的最独特时刻。 仅从我自己的模型预测来看，由于AI极端扩张，所有以前的估计可能都是错误的（例如美国能源部/劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的预测）： 超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)资本支出流入（支出）（亚马逊、微软、Meta、谷歌、甲骨文）进入数据中心估算： 2024年：2200亿美元 2025年：3500亿美元 2026年：5500亿美元 2027年：8000亿美元 2028年：1.2万亿美元（4年增长：+445%） 美国数据中心电力使用量： 2024年：190太瓦时(TWh) 2025年：280太瓦时 2026年：430太瓦时 2027年：650太瓦时 2028年：980太瓦时（4年增长：+415%） AI消耗的总美国电力百分比： 2024年：美国电网的4.5% 2025年：6.6% 2026年：8.2-10.2% 2027年：13.4-15.4% 2028年：21.3-23.3% 劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室和美国能源部似乎低估了AI使用量（他们预测到2028年约为12%） 物理电网容量需求： 2024年：18吉瓦(GW) 2025年：35吉瓦 2026年：65吉瓦 2027年：105吉瓦 2028年：160吉瓦 基本上你可以看到2026年到2028年是拐点，而2024-2025年是爬坡期的缓慢年份。 然后是独立公司的“绝望溢价”。因为电网容量已售罄，科技巨头向公用事业公司支付巨额溢价以插队。例如PJM互联电网（弗吉尼亚“数据中心巷”），容量价格从2024年的每兆瓦日28.92美元飙升至2026/2027年令人难以置信的329.17美元。 $VST 或 Constellation 作为独立电力生产商在ETF中占很大权重。 纵观全局，你可以看到从2026年（现在）到2028年的极端扩张，以及用于建设基础设施的极端资本支出，与往年相比。 2026年是现代市场历史上第一次，所有因素同时为枯燥的电网/电力板块发力，其中AI是最大的顺风。 正如埃隆·马斯克所说：“数十亿美元最先进的硬件。闲置黑暗。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为没有足够的电力来运行它们”。 再次强调，2026年由于AI和做市商(MMs)基于历史隐含波动率(IV)（极度平坦~14%-16%）定价虚值看涨期权，是一个绝对的历史异常值。 我们看到AI推理（超出之前的测量范围）以及训练（根据OpenAI今天的报告）的爆发。 所以，地球上最无聊的板块（电力/电网），可能会因为超大规模云服务商/政府对电网改进的支出 -> AI推理/训练的极端电力消耗 -> 降息等因素，成为重大反弹的起点。 这只是我的个人论点，期权伴随风险并放大下行风险。这些也是我自己的预测，不确定是否会高于或低于它们。 但基本上： 2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值。 美国的新瓶颈是电力。 有来自AI的极端需求，极端资本支出，降息： $XLU 看起来是暴露于此的最佳交易。 时间会证明这是否正确。
英文原文
If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year. It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps 2026 is the first time in modern history markets have: - falling interest rates - AI inference + buildout There's a potential ~40% for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping. Here's my macro thesis: 1. Rate Cuts When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, utility debt becomes cheaper, and institutional rotates low-yielding cash to for utility dividends. This causes immediate valuation multiple expansion: 1995: The S&P Utilities sector returned +31.3% in 1995 and another +12.1% in 1996 - ~47% cumulative return 2019 Mid-Cycle Cut: Result: XLU generated a +25.9% total return in that single year Standard soft-landing rate-cut cycle naturally maps to a 25% to 30% baseline return. And we're entering a new rate cut cycle in 2026. 2. The Infrastructure Supercycle Capex Infra CapEx gives the sector compounding earnings growth. Following the early 2000s, utilities entered a massive CapEx cycle to modernize aging grid infrastructure. Because they were constantly spending and expanding their guaranteed rate base, XLU returned +23.5% in 2004, +16.3% in 2005, +20.8% in 2006, and +18.4% in 2007. However this time: The $800B+ AI buildout of 2026 makes the 2004 grid modernization look like pennies. So you have Valuation Multiple Expansion (+15% to +20%), from rate cuts from #1. EPS growth (+18% to +20%) from #2 from capex spend historically. Just from a history lesson. But 2026 is the most unique moment in history from AI usage. Just from my own model projections as all former estimates are likely wrong from extreme AI ramp (eg. DOE/LBNL projections): Hyperscaler CapEx Inflows (Spend) - (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle) into DCs est: 2024: $220 Billion 2025: $350 Billion 2026: $550 Billion 2027: $800 Billion 2028: $1.2 Trillion (Growth: +445% over 4 years) U.S. Data Center Power Usage: 2024: 190 TWh 2025: 280 TWh 2026: 430 TWh 2027: 650 TWh 2028: 980 TWh (Growth: +415% over 4 years) % of Total U.S. Electricity Consumed by AI: 2024: 4.5% of the U.S. grid 2025: 6.6% 2026: 8.2-10.2% 2027: 13.4-15.4% 2028: 21.3-23.3% Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy seem off by AI usage (they're projecting ~12% by 2028) Physical Grid Capacity Demand: 2024: 18 GW 2025: 35 GW 2026: 65 GW 2027: 105 GW 2028: 160 GW Basically you can just see 2026 into 2028 being the inflection point whereas 2024-2025 where slower years on the ramp up. Then there's the "Desperation Premium" for independent companies. Because grid capacity is sold out, tech giants are paying massive premiums to utilities to cut the line. eg. PJM Interconnection (Virginia "Data Center Alley"), capacity prices spiked from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024 to an unfathomable $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/2027. $VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers. Across the board, you can see the extreme ramp from 2026 (now) into 2028 compared to previous years, alongside extreme capex going into building the infrastructure. 2026 is the first time in modern market history that every single thing is firing at the same time for the boring grid/power sector with AI as the biggest tailwind. And as Elon quotes it: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced hardware. Sitting dark. Not because the chips won't work. Because there's not enough electricity to run on them". Again 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly due to AI and MMs have priced in historical IV (extremely flat ~14%-16%) for OTM calls. We're seeing an explosion in AI inference (beyond previous measurements) as well as training (per OpenAI report today). So the most boring sector on earth (power/grid), might just be the start of a major rally due to hyperscaler/gov spend into grid improvements -> extreme power consumption from AI inference/training -> rate cuts and others. This is just my personal thesis, options come with risk and magnifies downside too. These are also my own projections, no certainty if they will exceed or be lower than them. But basically: 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly. New bottleneck in the US is power. There's extreme demand from AI, extreme capex, rate cuts: $XLU looks like the best trade for exposure. Time will tell if this is right or not.
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建议做多XLU看涨期权以布局美国电力电网板块。
@r0ck3t23 对于想知道针对埃隆刚才所说内容的最佳交易策略的人： 做多 $XLU 看涨期权以获取美国电力/电网敞口，只是提个建议。
英文原文
@r0ck3t23 For people wondering the best trade for what Elon just said: $XLU long calls for US power/grid exposure, just putting it out there.
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预告发布$XLU千载难逢的长期持有量化逻辑
@jCarterinvests 谢谢！考虑到我的订阅费仅为1美元（为了额外的“淋浴思考”空间），十倍收益的10美元利润听起来并不多，哈哈！ 稍后我将发布更量化的理由，解释为何我认为 $XLU 是千载难逢的长期持有标的。 之前的内容更多是高层面的方向性逻辑。
英文原文
@jCarterinvests Thanks! Considering my sub was $1 for extra shower thoughts space, that tenfold $10 profit doesn’t sound like much lol! I’ll publish a more quantitative reasoning why I think $XLU is a once a generation long later today. Before was more of a high level directional reasoning
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2028年$EWY期权定价错误，杠杆产品普及后或再翻倍。
不过这也说得通，2028年的远期期权定价严重错误，并非短期期权。仅凭隐含波动率(IV)扩张，2028年虚值(OTM) $EWY 期权就可能带来200%的收益。虽然已大幅补涨，但一旦2倍杠杆ETF以及10倍杠杆的SK海力士和三星永续合约(perps)流行起来，价格可能再翻一番。
英文原文
Makes sense though, 2028 leaps were extremely mispriced, not short dated options. Would probably be a 200% gain alone off IV expansion off 2028 OTM $EWY options. It’s caught up a decent amount but would probably double again once 2x leveraged ETFs and 10x leveraged SK Hynix and Samsung perps gain popularity.
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分析$EWY套利机会及SK海力士估值优势
很有可能。对于隐含波动率(IV)套利，目前处于IV扩张的尾声，但$EWY仍是一个不错的机会。 IV 45%并不意味着每天波动6%，尤其是在10倍永续合约和2倍杠杆ETF推出之前。 话虽如此，韩国指数可能会继续上涨，甚至可能翻倍。SK海力士在2027年的利润将超过谷歌，但其市值仅为谷歌的1/9。
英文原文
Probably. For the IV arbitrage, it’s on the tail end on IV expansion but still a good opportunity with $EWY. IV 45% does not move 6% a day, especially before 10x perps and 2x leverage ETFs come out. That being said Korean index will likely keep going up and maybe double. Sk Hynix is making more than Google in 2027 and is valued at like 1/9th the mc.
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回顾$EWY因隐含波动率扩张导致组合翻倍的传奇交易。
这大概是我至今最传奇的预测之一？ 仅凭隐含波动率(IV)的扩张，你的投资组合在一周内就会翻倍。 希望匿名者你听进去了——$EWY。 IV：32% -> 44.7%，且仍在上升。https://t.co/UPAzgzKsfx
英文原文
Probably up there with my most legendary calls to date? Your portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion alone. Hope you listened anon - $EWY. IV: 32% -> 44.7% and still going. https://t.co/UPAzgzKsfx
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反驳美光IV定价，指出韩国ETF因波动率扩张受益。
@diyinvestguy 不，美光科技($MU)的隐含波动率(IV)定价是正确的。我唯一的论点是韩国交易所ETF($EWY)的隐含波动率存在偏差，并且随着韩国指数从记忆中回升，其隐含波动率扩张(Vega expansion)会带来收益。
英文原文
@diyinvestguy No Micron’s IV is priced correctly. My only argument was $EWY IV is off and benefits from Vega expansion over time as Korean index goes up from memory
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因做市商波动率定价错误，EWY看涨期权leaps或为良机。
@jseth53 只是说，鉴于做市商(MMs)可能错误定价了波动率，$EWY 的看涨期权杠杆产品(leaps)由于看涨期权隐含波动率(Vega)扩张，仍然可能是一个不错的交易思路。
英文原文
@jseth53 Just saying $EWY leaps is still might be a good trade idea from call vega expansion since MMs likely priced in volatility wrong.
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$EWY期权IV被低估，杠杆衍生品将推高波动率，看涨期权或受益。
$EWY 看起来即将变得更加波动。 做市商可能没有正确地将跳跃期权隐含波动率(IV)定价，因为 IV 可能会扩张至 55% 以上。 有两个原因源于未实现（但即将到来）的波动性。 - 10 倍杠杆的三星/SK 海力士通过去中心化金融(DeFi) 已经出现，因为它们开始产能爬坡。 如果规模变得很大，这会在期货（如 $EWY）的清算和对冲上产生大量的未实现波动性。 $EWY 由一半的 SK 海力士/三星组成，而韩国指数本身已经非常波动。 - 三星和 SK 海力士的 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF 即将到来 2026 年 1 月，韩国监管机构正式宣布允许国内 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF。 同样，这增加了未实现的波动性。 但就目前的期权 IV 定价而言，$EWY 的波动幅度相当极端。 如果非要打个比方，它的百分比波动范围肯定大于 $MRVL（IV 为 55-56%，而 $EWY 仍为 41%）。 三星的对应物可能是 $MU（约 70%），SK 海力士更接近 $SNDK（91%），但可能在 70-80% 范围内。 而且……韩国指数基本上就是 SK 海力士和三星。 随着三星/SK 海力士开始从存储超级周期中重新评级，这种波动性可能会成为新常态。但做市商可能仍然在使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH) 模型或基于长期平均值（当时指数完全平坦）的波动率预测投影。 来自 10 倍杠杆衍生品的数量将仅仅为这些个股的对手方和做市商创造更多的对冲/波动性 -> 这会滞后地反映在 $EWY 的定价中。 简而言之：随着做市商未能正确定价 IV 和未实现波动性，$EWY 看涨期权可能会从 Vega 扩张中受益。
英文原文
$EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile. Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%. Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility. - 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up. This creates a great amount of unrealized volatility from liquidations and hedging on futures like $EWY if this ends up becoming large. $EWY is half Sk Hynix / Samsung, and the South Korean index is already really volatile. - 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix are coming In January 2026, South Korean regulators officially announced they will permit domestic 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs. Again, this just adds to unrealized volatility. But as it stands right now regarding option IV pricing. $EWY moves pretty extreme amounts. If I had to give a comparison, it definitely moves in greater % ranges than $MRVL, which sits at 55-56% IV (while $EWY is 41% still). Samsung's equivalent is probably $MU (70%-ish), Sk Hynix is closer to $SNDK (91%) but likely in 70-80% range. And... South Korea's index is basically just Sk Hynix and Samsung. This volatility would likely be the new norm as Samsung/SK Hynix begin their re-rating from the memory supercycle. But MMs are still probably using garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages (where index was completely flat) And the amount of leveraged derivatives from 10x will just create more hedging/volatility on these individual stocks from counterparties and market makers -> that gets priced in late to $EWY. TLDR: $EWY calls likely benefit from vega expansion as MMs aren't pricing in IV and unrealized volatility correctly.
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预计XLU因权重调整及独立公司崛起，隐含波动率将显著上升。
感谢！需要注意的是，隐含波动率(IV)是指数中最低的之一，因为自2000年代以来该指数几乎没有变动。但我认为今年将是它大放异彩的时候，尤其是随着指数权重向像 $VST 这样的独立公司倾斜。如果一切按计划进行，我预计 $XLU 的 IV 将从 14% 升至 26-28%。
英文原文
Appreciate it! Thing to note is the IV is one of the lowest out of all the index’s since this hasn’t moved since the 2000’s. But I think this year is its time to shine, esp. with different index weightings toward independent companies like $VST. I’d expect $XLU IV 14% -> 26-28% if things go as planned.
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看好$XLU因AI电网需求激增带来的百年一遇长线机会。
谢谢，我认为 $XLU 是百年一遇的做多机会，因为人工智能使枯燥的电网部门变得至关重要。我们很久没见过这样的转变了，隐含波动率(IV)正在按历史平均水平定价（自开天辟地以来一直持平）。美国将花费巨资升级电网，且需求无法仅由美国超大规模云服务商满足。通常高利率会构成利空，但也有进一步降息的顺风。所以，如果我的论点正确，我认为这可能是一个三位数回报的长线机会。
英文原文
Thanks, I do think $XLU is a once a generation type long due of AI creating critical importance to the boring grid sector. Don't think we've ever seen a shift like this in awhile and IV is pricing in historical averages (flat since the dawn of time). US will spend a lot to upgrade the grid and demand cannot be fulfilled from US hyperscalers. Usually high interest rates hurt, but there's the tailwind of additional rate cuts too. So, I do think this is a potential triple digit return long if my thesis plays out correctly.
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建议做多$XLU LEAPS，看好AI电力需求激增及降息利好。
交易思路：做多虚值(OTM) $XLU LEAPS（2年期，2027年12月/2028年1月到期）。 受AI驱动，这感觉像是一次千载难逢的做多机会。 $XLU 集中持有 $VST / $CEG 等电力公司。 两个原因： 1. AI数据中心(DC)电力使用带来的范式转变。 2. 基于历史平均水平（自2000年代以来持平）的低隐含波动率(IV)（约14%）。 AI的电力消耗是天文数字。 这一点怎么强调都不为过。 历史上从未有过数据中心消耗如此多吉瓦(GW)电力的情况，尤其是当它们需要核反应堆的输出来训练大语言模型(LLMs)时。 这迫使 $META、$AMZN、$GOOGL 等公司签署多年协议以尽可能多地消耗电力。然而，电力仍然供不应求。 -> 因此，数万亿美元可能会涌入电网升级。 通常利率会损害该板块，但我们将进入更多降息周期，这使得该板块成为更好的做多标的。 OpenAI致国会的信恳请美国投资能源以与中国竞争。 因此，由于以下原因，这感觉像是一次十年一遇的做多机会： - AI消耗所有可用电力带来的范式转变 - 为与中国竞争而进行的数万亿美元电网升级 - 降息 以及基于历史平均水平的低隐含波动率定价。
英文原文
Trade Idea: Long OTM $XLU leaps (2 years, Dec 2027/Jan 2028). This feels like once-a-generation long due to AI. XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies. Two reasons: 1. Paradigm shift due to AI DC electricity usage. 2. Low option IV (~14%) based on historical averages (flat since 2000s). AI power usage is astronomical. This cannot be understated. Never before in history have DCs use up this much GWs in power, especially when they require outputs of nuclear reactors for training LLMs. This forces $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and others to sign multi-year agreements to consume as much power as possible. And yet they still don't have enough. -> So, trillions would likely be poured into grid upgrades. Usually interest rates hurt the sector but we're going into more rate cuts, so it makes the sector a much better long. OpenAI's letter to congress pleaded the US to invest in energy as well to compete vs. China. So, this feels like a once-a-decade type long due to: - paradigm shift eating up any available power from AI - trillions in grid upgrades to compete vs. China - rate cuts. And low IV pricing from historical averages.
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反驳FT将树莓派比作迷因股，强调其核心逻辑是需求驱动收入与TAM扩张。
是的，但《金融时报》(FT) 文章的重点是将树莓派(Raspberry Pi)描绘成“迷因股(meme-stock)”，然后将其与“可被框架化为对立面的大型空头(big shorts)”相提并论，而文中对此毫无提及。 我确信这类情况存在，但该投资论点(thesis)的核心在于需求(材料层面)带来的收入增长，以及大幅扩大的总可寻址市场(TAM)。
英文原文
Yes, but the point of the FT article was to paint Rasberry Pi as a "meme-stock" then draw parallels to "big shorts that can be framed as opposition", when has been no mention of it at all. I'm sure they exist, but the point of the thesis was increased revenue from demand (material), as well as a largely increased TAM.