个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 20 / 45 页
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MiniMax和RPI是OpenClaw交易最大受益者，需研究S。
@Baltachi_com 我认为 OpenClaw 交易最大的两个受益者其实是 MiniMax (HKG: 0100) 和 $RPI，两者都上涨了约 60%。 其余如 $AAPL（可能还有 $TWLO）体量太大，难以产生实质性影响。 需要研究一下 $S。
英文原文
@Baltachi_com I'd say the two biggest beneficiaries of the OpenClaw trade is actually Minimax (HKG: 0100) and $RPI, which are both up ~60% together. The rest like $AAPL are a bit too big (and probably $TWLO ) to make a material impact. Will need to take a look into $S.
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机构验证树莓派转型AI基建，CEO回购，后续看执行。
彭博社关于树莓派（$RPI）及 OpenClaw/PicoClaw/NanoClaw 论点的报道： 在对 Montanaro Asset Management 基金经理 Adam Montanaro 的采访中： “从主题上看，树莓派从爱好者开发板演变为 AI 基础设施的核心组件，这一趋势是正确的。” 彭博社的 Henry Ren 也表示： “树莓派的另一个利好是，创始人兼首席执行官 Eben Upton 近期频繁回购股票，文件显示自 1 月下旬以来他已分五次买入。” 很高兴看到机构验证了树莓派从教育类爱好者开发板向 AI 硬件编排核心基础设施的转型。 话虽如此，其余部分取决于公司能否通过执行落地，在 AI 智能体（AI Agents）领域拓展其新的总可服务市场（TAM）。
英文原文
Bloomberg on the Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) and the OpenClaw / PicoClaw / NanoClaw thesis: In their interview with Adam Montanaro, a fund manager at Montanaro Asset Management: "Thematically the evolution of a Raspberry Pi from hobbyist board into a core piece of AI infrastructure is correct" Henry Ren from Bloomberg also stated: "Another positive for Raspberry Pi has been a rash of share purchases by founder and Chief Executive Officer Eben Upton, who has bought stock on five separate occasions since late January, filings show." It's great to see institutional validation of Raspberry Pi's transition from educational hobbyist boards into core infrastructure for AI hardware orchestration. That being said, the rest depends on the company's execution to grow into their new TAM with AI agents.
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看好$RPI在AI边缘计算中的早期势头及市场机会，决定顺势参与。
谢谢，$RPI 目前捕捉到了早期的势头。特别是随着 OpenClaw 的轻量级版本（如 picoclaw/nanoclaw）的出现。我们正目睹总可寻址市场(TAM)的巨大扩张，类似于 $NVDA 从游戏 GPU 向 AI GPU 转型时的场景。但在上游更广泛的内存供应受限背景下，执行力才是真正捕获该 TAM 的关键。我不确定这会演变成短期的病毒式潮流，还是在一年后在树莓派上部署 AI 编排(AI Orchestration)仍将是标准做法。但我看到了市场机会，所以我会顺势而为，看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
Thank you, $RPI has captured the early momentum right now. Especially with lighter OpenClaw versions like picoclaw/nanoclaw. We're seeing a massive TAM expansion like when $NVDA transitioned from GPUs for gaming to GPUs for AI. But execution is what matters the most to actually capture that TAM while there's broader memory supply constraints upstream. No clue how this turns out whether it's a short term viral trend or if deploying AI orchestration on Raspberry Pi remains the standard 1 year out. But I see the market opportunity, so I'm along for the ride to see where it goes.
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树莓派因AI智能体编排需求激增，正从教育公司重估为AI硬件公司。
很高兴我的 $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞 论点被路透社报道。 树莓派（Raspberry Pi）廉价教育板的市场规模（TAM）一夜之间扩大了。 因为它们已成为 $AAPL Mac Mini 的更廉价标准，用于 AI 智能体编排（AI Agent Orchestration）+ AI 集群（AI Swarms）。 树莓派在廉价板卡领域拥有事实上的垄断地位，因为它们最初针对的是教育用途。 几乎没有公司有需求（或动力）在该领域与之竞争。 市场目前正在重新评估一家曾经只卖 1-2 块板用于测试的教育公司。 将其视为一家销售可大规模生产的 AI 智能体编排板卡的 AI 硬件公司。
英文原文
Glad my $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞thesis made it to Reuters. Raspberry Pi’s cheap educational boards had a TAM expansion overnight. As they’ve become the cheaper standard for AI Agent Orchestration + AI Swarms alongside the $AAPL Mac Mini. Raspberry Pi has a de facto monopoly in the cheap board space as they were targeting educational use purposes. And almost no company had a need (or incentive) to compete in that space. Markets are currently rerating an education company that used to sell 1-2 boards for testing. Into an AI hardware company that sells mass producible boards for AI Agent Orchestration.
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RPI因AI新用例成垄断者，正通过涨价转嫁内存成本。
是的，他们在廉价硬件板领域曾是事实上的垄断者，因为主要用途是教育。没人真的想或需要去竞争。随后，AI 智能体编排(AI agent orchestration)的新用例一夜之间出现，使 $RPI 成为领导者。他们一直在对 RPI 5 等板卡进行涨价，以避免内存成本侵蚀利润。我相当确定他们也有库存，但不太确定这会如何演变。
英文原文
Yeah, they were a defacto monopoly for cheap hardware boards because it was mainly for education purposes. Nobody really wanted or needed to compete. Then a new use case for AI agent orchestration came up overnight and made $RPI the leader. They've been price hiking boards like RPI 5 so they don't eat up memory costs. Pretty sure they have stockpiles too, but not quite sure how that plays out.
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$RPI 因教育硬件垄断意外成为 AI 智能体编排硬件领导者。
是的，$RPI 意外地在一夜之间成为 AI 智能体编排硬件的领导者，这简直太搞笑了。 他们几乎垄断了廉价硬件市场，因为他们的初衷是为了教育目的。（没人愿意或需要与之竞争）。 结果发现，这在 AI 智能体集群中还有另一个应用场景。
英文原文
Yeah it's hilarious how $RPI accidentally became the leader in hardware for orchestration of AI agents overnight. They were almost a monopoly for cheap hardware because they wanted to do it for education purposes. (nobody else wanted or needed to compete). Turns out that has another use case in AI agent swarms.
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RPI估值便宜，已成AI代理硬件龙头。
@CoffeeStocksGuy 不，是10.2亿美元。但考虑到$RPI已一夜之间成为AI代理编排硬件的领导者，并成为“代理蜂群”的默认代理标的，我认为这非常便宜。
英文原文
@CoffeeStocksGuy Nope, it's $1.02B. But that's very cheap to me considering $RPI has become the leader for AI agent orchestration hardware overnight and defacto proxy play for the "Agentic Swarms".
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分析$RPI在内存短缺下，即便产能受限，积压需求与涨价仍利好营收。
这是最大的问题，也是看空论点。鉴于上游内存短缺，他们能否扩大产能以满足需求，我尚无答案。我们得等下一次财报电话会议才能揭晓。无论如何，我的思考逻辑是：即使他们无法扩大产能，积压的需求也会增加营收。$RPI 本月早些时候也对设备进行了涨价（例如 Raspberry Pi 5），这应该会有所帮助。
英文原文
That's the biggest question and bear case. I don't have an answer if they can scale up capacity to meet demand given memory shortages upstream. We'll have to find out next earnings call. Regardless, my thought process is that even if they can't scale up capacity -> backlogged demand increases revenue anyway. $RPI did also price hike devices too eg. raspberry pi 5, earlier this month, so that should help.
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RPI TAM转向AI智能体，树莓派需求激增，作者顺势看好。
谢谢！这是关于总可寻址市场(TAM)在一夜之间从教育领域转向AI智能体集群(AI agent swarms)的新信息，市场正在通过 $RPI 对此进行定价。此前大家都在讨论苹果Mac Mini的短缺问题，但搭载新OpenClaw模型的树莓派(Raspberry Pi)需求激增，其对营收的影响相比苹果而言非常重大。话虽如此，我不太确定市场将如何对此进行定价，但我愿意顺势而为。
英文原文
Thank you! This is new information about TAM flipping overnight from education to AI agent swarms that markets are pricing in with $RPI. Everyone was talking about Apple Mac Mini shortages, but the surge in demand for Raspberry Pis with new OpenClaw models is very material to revenue compared to Apple. That being said, not quite sure how markets will price this in but I'm along for the ride.
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树莓派因AI智能体部署需求激增，类比英伟达转型逻辑，市值潜力巨大。
树莓派（$RPI）又上涨了29%。 如果你在思考估值问题： $NVDA 从面向游戏玩家的GPU转型为面向AI推理/训练的GPU，市值从10亿美元重估至4.4万亿美元。 $RPI 从面向教育的廉价硬件，转型为AI智能体（与Apple Mac Mini一起）的标准配置。 我并非说它会像英伟达一样，但确实存在平行之处。 现在大家都在大量购买树莓派用于AI智能体相关部署，例如OpenClaw或Picoclaw。未来可能会有许多变种出现，比如$META Manus。 总可寻址市场（TAM）从人们购买1-2台的教育市场，转变为“尽可能多买”以本地部署AI智能体的市场。 目前市值为10.2亿美元。前途无量。
英文原文
Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) is now up another 29%. If you're wondering about valuation: $NVDA went from GPUs for gamers into GPUs for AI inference/training. And re-rated to a $4.4T MC from $1B. $RPI went from cheap hardware for education, into the standard for AI agents (alongside Apple Mac Mini). Not saying it's going to be the same as Nvidia, but there's certainly parallels. Now everyone is mass-buying Raspberry Pis for AI agent related deployments, such as OpenClaw or Picoclaw. In the future, there will likely be many variants to come, such as $META Manus. The TAM went from education where people bought 1 or 2 to "buy-as-much-as-you-can" for deploying AI agents locally. The marketcap is $1.02B now. Sky is the limit.
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持有RPI，预期OpenClaw需求将如Mac mini短缺般显著提振营收。
@Cheva28789724 谢谢！持有 $RPI 才一天，让我们看看关于“为 OpenClaw 用例囤积树莓派(Raspberry Pi)”的投资逻辑(thesis)会被如何定价。我猜测，与 $AAPL 的 Mac mini 短缺相比，这应该会对营收产生实质性影响。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 Appreciate it! It's only been one day with $RPI but we'll see how my thesis regarding Raspberry Pi hoarding for OpenClaw use cases gets priced in. My guess is that it should have a material impact on revenue compared to the mac mini shortage with $AAPL.
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OpenClaw代理部署带动树莓派需求，$RPI有望因收入重估而反转。
市场似乎很喜爱 OpenClaw 树莓派囤货潮。 $RPI 昨日上涨 8.1% 后，今日再涨 19.34%。https://t.co/DRQTCjIlmQ （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 有趣的交易思路：做多 $RPI (Raspberry Pi) 理由：🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + 囤货。 大家一直在公开囤积 Apple Mac Mini，并长期持有苹果。但 $APPL 已经是市值 3.7 万亿美元+的公司，产品大规模购买对其影响微乎其微。 然而，树莓派是一家市值 5.4268 亿美元的公司。收入影响显著。 感觉市场尚未定价，因为我在 X 上几乎没看到关于该股票代码的提及（尽管有很多产品提及）。而且最近才开始有人囤积树莓派，因为它们比 500 美元以上的苹果产品便宜得多。它们也有自己的迷你 $NVDA CUDA-light 实用生态系统，人们正在使用。 事实证明，这些极其便宜的 20 美元或 200 美元的设备非常适合大规模部署隔离实例。 原因是为了 OpenClaw 编排（以免搞乱你的设备）-> 通过 API 与中央 LLM 交互。 以前人们只是出于爱好/教育目的购买 1 或 2 台，所以收入增长缓慢。但现在硅谷初创公司和个体据称正在购买数十或数百台这些设备，以运行并行的 OpenClaw 代理群集，或在 Reddit 等其他地方进行代理营销。 而且，不，有很多应用无法通过启动 AWS VPS 完成，所以人们在本地进行（自动化/AI 机器人有服务条款限制，所以公司设置自己的服务器）。 话虽如此，主要下行风险是： - 部分由基金会拥有，即使需求极度旺盛，他们可能也不会像 $SNDK 或 $MU 那样大幅提价 - 受 LPDDR4 组件等内存价格上涨影响 所以这不是一个主要仓位。 然而，展望未来，由于人们购买数十或数百台这些设备来运行 AI 代理，收入应该会增加。 资产负债表看起来也很干净，下行风险低： - 收入约 2.8 亿 - 3 亿美元 - 毛利润约 7500 万美元+ - 毛利率约 25% - 净利润：约 1000 万 - 1500 万美元 - 净现金：2800 万美元 分析师目前预测收入增长接近 14-17%。但如果需求涌入持续，如果囤货继续，我们可能会看到收入数字从 14% 的增长增加到适度的 48-55%。 消费者板块约占收入的 1/3，但 Openclaw + 变体的新购买无论如何都是重新评级的新催化剂。 特别是现在 Picoclaw 和压缩版 OpenClaw 变体能够在 20 美元的树莓派上运行，而不仅仅是树莓派 5。 但似乎人们忘记了树莓派也是一只公开交易的股票。股价 1 年下跌 56%，市值 5.4268 亿欧元跌至历史新低。所以这可能是反转的顺风。 此外，OpenClaw 成为基于树莓派的代理部署的长期催化剂的可能性也不为零。 TLDR：人们公开购买树莓派和苹果 Mac Mini 用于 Openclaw/Picoclaw，因此收入应从需求增加中受益。
英文原文
Markets seem to love the OpenClaw Raspberry Pi hoarding. $RPI up another 19.34%, from yesterday's 8.1%. https://t.co/DRQTCjIlmQ
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ALAB因CFO传闻及毛利率压缩被错杀，属算法抛售，建议买入做多。
$ALAB 的抛售是一个良好的买入机会。我对财报做了一些更深入的研究： - CFO 离职影响不大（而且他其实还在职） - 毛利率压缩只是表面现象，亚马逊的交易人为地将其压缩了约 2%。 可能是被算法抛售，市场忽略了这些细微差别。这里是很好的做多标的。
英文原文
$ALAB selloff is a good buying opportunity. Did a little more research into earnings - CFO leaving is immaterial (he's still there though) - gross margin compression is just optics, the Amazon deal artificially compressed it by 2% or so. prob sold off algorithmically, missed the nuance. good long here
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吐槽 $RPI 交易费用高昂，但看好其作为代理部署标准的长期潜力。
遗憾的是，费用似乎相当昂贵。我刚刚在伦敦证券交易所(LSE)购买了 $RPI，结果花费了几百欧元。如果 openclaw 的需求不是周期性的（并最终成为部署代理的事实标准），这是一笔有趣且具备上行潜力的交易。但市场上还有其他多头机会。
英文原文
Fees seem pretty expensive sadly. I just bought $RPI on LSE and it ended up costing a few hundred euros. It's a fun trade with potential upside if the openclaw demand is not a cycle (and ends up being used as the defacto way to deploy agents). But there's other long opportunities out in the sea.
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RPI估值偏高且面临内存瓶颈，预计将通过涨价弥补成本。
几点看法： - 作为新上市IPO，去年的估值原本就存在高估。 - 上游存在旧款LPDDR4 DRAM的内存瓶颈。 我认为$RPI在其机型上的涨价幅度不足以抵消组件成本的上升（本月2日左右进行了大幅涨价）。话虽如此，鉴于需求的涌入，我预计他们能够通过进一步涨价来弥补内存成本的上涨。
英文原文
Few things: - new IPO so originally inflated valuations last year. - upstream memory bottleneck with older LPDDR4 DRAM. Don't think $RPI hiked prices enough on their models (did a massive hike ~Feb 2nd this month) to balance out component cost. That being said, given influx of demand, I'd expect them to be able to do so to make up for memory hikes.
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持有RPI至Q3财报，暂无Picoclaw相关分析。
@Cheva28789724 算了，发得太早了，股价又跌回去了哈哈。总之，这是持有至第三季度财报的标的，刚才只是开个玩笑。有一些关于 $RPI.L 的研报，但还没看到关于 Picoclaw/Openclaw 角度的分析。https://t.co/WLUADBd0Hv
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 Nvm posted too early stock is back down lol. Anyway this is a hold till q3 earnings, was just having a bit of fun with this post. There’s some coverage with $RPI.L , haven’t really seen Picoclaw/Openclaw angles yet. https://t.co/WLUADBd0Hv
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博主因树莓派硬件联想建立$RPI多头头寸。
我原本在想，自己尝试用压缩版的 Openclaw 加上树莓派 Zero (Raspberry Pi Zero) 来运行代理蜂群 (agentic swarm) 应用。然后我意识到 $RPI 是一只股票，这就是我建立多头头寸 (long idea) 的灵感来源。这是一个将 Openclaw 变体联系起来的有趣想法，目前还没有人分享过。希望这个判断是对的！
英文原文
I was thinking about trying agentic swarm applications myself actually with compressed openclaw versions + raspberry pi zeros. Then I realized $RPI was a stock, hence where I got the long idea. It’s a fun idea that nobody shared yet tying it to Openclaw variants. Hope it’s right!
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看好$RPI，因AI智能体部署引发硬件囤货潮，营收有望超预期增长。
有趣的交易思路：做多 $RPI (树莓派) 理由：🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + 囤货潮。 大家都在公开囤积 Apple Mac Mini，并长期持有苹果股票。 但 $APPL 已经是市值 3.7 万亿美元以上的巨头。产品的大规模抢购对其影响微乎其微。 然而，$RPI 是一家市值仅 5.4268 亿美元的公司。 营收影响是实质性的。 感觉市场尚未对此定价，因为我在 X 上几乎没看到关于该股票代码的提及（尽管产品提及很多）。 而且最近才开始出现树莓派的囤货潮，因为它们比 500 美元以上的苹果产品便宜得多。它们还拥有人们使用的迷你 $NVDA CUDA 轻量级实用生态系统。 事实证明，这些极其便宜的 20 美元或 200 美元的设备非常适合大规模部署隔离实例。 原因是为了 OpenClaw 编排（以免搞乱你的设备）-> 通过 API 与中央 LLM 接口。 以前人们只是为了爱好/教育目的购买 1 或 2 台，所以营收增长缓慢。 但现在硅谷初创公司和个体据称正在购买数十或数百台这些设备，以运行并行的 OpenClaw 智能体集群，或在 Reddit 等其他地方进行智能体营销。 而且，不，有很多应用无法通过启动 AWS VPS 来完成，所以人们选择本地运行（自动化/AI 机器人存在服务条款限制，因此公司搭建自己的服务器）。 话虽如此，主要下行风险是： - 部分由基金会拥有，即使需求极度旺盛，他们可能也不会像 $SNDK 或 $MU 那样大幅提价 - 受 LPDDR4 组件等内存价格上涨的影响 所以这不是一个重仓头寸。 然而，展望未来，由于人们购买数十或数百台这些设备来运行 AI 智能体，营收应该会增加。 资产负债表看起来也很干净，下行风险低： - 营收约 2.8 亿 - 3 亿美元 - 毛利润约 7500 万美元+ - 毛利率约 25% - 净利润：约 1000 万 - 1500 万美元 - 净现金：2800 万美元 分析师目前预测营收增长接近 14-17%。 但如果需求涌入持续，如果囤货潮继续，我们可能会看到营收数字从 14% 的增长增加到适度的 48-55%。 消费板块约占营收的 1/3，但 Openclaw 及其变体带来的新购买潮仍然是重新评级的新催化剂。 特别是现在 Picoclaw 和压缩版 OpenClaw 变体已经能够在 20 美元的树莓派上运行，而不仅仅是树莓派 5。 但似乎人们忘记了树莓派也是一只公开交易的股票。 股价一年下跌 56%，市值 5.4268 亿欧元跌至历史新低。 这可能是反转的顺风。 OpenClaw 成为基于树莓派的智能体部署的长期催化剂的可能性也不为零。 TLDR：人们正在公开购买树莓派和 Apple Mac Mini 用于 Openclaw/Picoclaw，因此营收应从需求增加中受益。
英文原文
Fun Trade Idea: Long $RPI (Raspberry Pi) Reason: 🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + Hoarding. Everyone has been openly hoarding Apple Mac Minis and were long Apple. But $APPL is already a $3.7T+ company. Product mass-buying won't make a dent. Raspberry Pi, however, is a 542.68M company. The revenue is material. Feels like markets haven't priced this in since I've seen almost 0 mentions about the ticker on X (but many product mentions). And it's only recently that have the hoarding started Raspberry Pis, as they're much cheaper than $500+ Apple products. They also have their mini $NVDA CUDA-light utility ecosystem that people use. So it turns out these extremely cheap $20 or $200 devices are perfect for deploying mass deploying isolated instances. The reason is for OpenClaw orchestration (so they don’t mess up your device) -> interfacing with a central LLM via API. Before people were just buying 1 or 2 for hobby/education purposes, so revenue has slowing. But now Silicon Valley startups and individuals anecdotally appear to be buying tens or hundreds of these things to run concurrent OpenClaw agentic swarms or do stuff like agentic marketing on Reddit and other places. And no, there are many applications that can't be done by spinning up AWS VPS, so people do it locally (there's TOS around automation/AI bots, so companies setup their own servers). That being said main downside risk is that its - partially foundation owned, and they might not hike rates like $SNDK or $MU does, even if there's extreme demand - Subject to memory price hikes like LPDDR4 component so this is not a major position. However, going forward, revenue should increase due to people buying tens or hundreds of these things for running AI agents. Balance sheet also looks clean with low downside risk: - ~$280M - $300M revenue - ~$75M+ Gross Profit - ~25% Gross Margin - Net income: ~$10M - $15M - Net Cash: $28M Analysts currently project revenue growth closer to 14–17%. But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues. Consumer segments are roughly 1/3rd of revenue but the newfound buying from Openclaw + variants is a new cataylst nevertheless for re-rating. Especially now that Picoclaw and compressed OpenClaw variants are now able to be run on $20 Raspberry Pis instead of just the Raspberry Pi 5’s. But seems like people just forgot Raspberry PI was a publicly stock as well. The stock price is down 56% 1Y to 542.68M euro MC to an all time low. So this might be that tailwind for a reversal. There's also a non-zero chance OpenClaw is a long term catalyst for Raspberry Pi based, agentic deployments. TLDR: People are openly buying Raspberry Pis and Apple Mac Minis for Openclaw/Picoclaw, so revenue should benefit from increased demand.
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对比苹果与树莓派，认为后者营收受硬件囤积影响更大。
我聊过的所有人都知道 $RPI，但没人知道树莓派(Raspberry Pi)是一家上市公司，这很有趣（虽然是新IPO）。人们因为囤积Mac mini而做多 $APPL，考虑到其体量，这毫无道理。但人们也在囤积树莓派公司（市值5.5亿）。所以我猜测其营收影响应该更显著。
英文原文
Everyone I've talked to knows $RPI but nobody knew Raspberry Pi was a public company, which was interesting (new IPO though). People were long $APPL because of mac mini hoarding, which made no sense given it's size. But people are also hoarding Raspberry PIs (550m MC) company. So revenue should be more material was my guess.
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RMBS靠IP获稳定收入，未受益于存储芯片涨价。
@Alex06425829 $RMBS 从其内存知识产权(IP)组合中获得稳定的收入流入，但他们并未从 DRAM/NAND 价格飙升中获益。
英文原文
@Alex06425829 $RMBS captures steady revenue inflow from their memory IP portfolio but they don’t get any benefit from the dram/nand price surges.
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澄清 Marvell 非存储核心，其 SSD 控制器业务占比远小于定制 ASIC。
@InnatS__ $MRVL 并不是存储交易的核心。三星、SK 海力士和美光才是。Marvell 通过 Bravera 提供 SSD 控制器，但这部分收入与其定制 ASIC 相比仅占很小比例。
英文原文
@InnatS__ $MRVL is not the center of the memory trade. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are. Marvell does SSD controllers through Bravera and it’s only a small portion of their revenue compared to custom asics
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建议通过投资AI股票及关注BOM支出（存储、光子学）来对冲失业风险。
看到人们因人工智能(AI)替代而失业，确实令人难过。现在人们唯一能做的就是顺势而为，否则就会被抛下。 对此最大的对冲手段是投资AI股票，并关注物料清单(BOM)支出。 最大的是存储芯片，如 $MU 或 $SNDK。从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的光子学(Photonics)组件在BOM中也占据相当比重。
英文原文
Yeah pretty sad to see people get laid off from AI displacement. So only thing people can do now is ride the wave or get left behind. Biggest hedge against this is AI equities and looking into BOM spend. Biggest is memory like $MU or $SNDK. Photonics from $LITE to $AAOI command a decent amount of BOM.
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因比特币相关性担忧看空CIFR/IREN，看好NBIS。
鉴于比特币近期价格下跌，在它们与比特币的相关性降低之前，我持负面看法。像 $NBIS 这样的新云公司是该板块更纯粹的标的。据我回忆，$CIFR 的资产负债表中有大量比特币敞口，且 $IREN 的很大一部分利润来自比特币挖矿。营收数据噪音很大，因为比特币挖矿收入与高性能计算(HPC)收入对资产负债表的影响截然不同。但随着规模扩大，这种影响应该会减弱。
英文原文
Negative until they have less correlation with Bitcoin given Bitcoin's recent price drop. Neoclouds like $NBIS are a bit more pure play to the sector. Last I recall, $CIFR balance sheet had a lot of Bitcoin exposure and a lot of $IREN's profit comes from Bitcoin mining. Revenue numbers are a lot of noise since revenue from Bitcoin mining vs HPC hits the balance sheet a lot different. But as they scale up, it should be less materially impacted.
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MU营收预测低于五大巨头，若计入存储涨价可能上调。
@KAnalyser1 是的。不过 $MU 的预测值稍低一些。 $108亿（2025年）-> $465亿（2026年）-> ~$635亿（2027年）是一些估算值。当然，如果你将 NAND/DRAM 价格涨幅纳入模型，这些数字可能会更高，但它们通常低于上述五大巨头。
英文原文
@KAnalyser1 Yes. $MU projections are a bit lower though. $10.8B (2025) -> $46.5B (2026) -> ~$63.5B (2027) were some estimates. Of course if you model in NAND/DRAM price increases those numbers might go up more, but they’re generally less than the big 5 above
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认同思科因体量小而具投资潜力
@CapSimplified 不，我能理解为什么 $CSCO 是一个不错的候选标的。相比之下，它的体量相当小。
英文原文
@CapSimplified Nope, I can see why $CSCO is a good candidate. It’s a pretty small company in comparison.
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认为当前处于周期早期，$SIMO 虽已大涨但仍是优质长线标的。
@LAMINAR27174405 不，但这是一个很好的长线标的。这正处于周期( Cycle )的非常早期阶段，$SIMO 已经大幅上涨了不少。
英文原文
@LAMINAR27174405 Nope but great long. This one is the very start of the cycle, $SIMO has already rallied quite a bit.
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研究PSTG后不看好其QLC闪存业务，明天将发帖。
@Ren_aramb 我今天早些时候其实正在深入研究 $PSTG。用于存储的 QLC 闪存(QLC Flash) 非常有趣，但（我）不看好。我明天还是会发帖，只是好奇大家有什么想法。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb I was actually doing more research into $PSTG earlier today. QLC Flash for storage is very interesting, but nope. I'll post tomorrow anyway, was just curious what ideas people had.
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AI需求致SSD囤货潮，$SNDK营收预期或翻三倍但股价未动
现在有一个非常滑稽的硬件囤货周期，比如 $SNDK 的固态硬盘(SSD)。大家都在买这个产品，但没人买它的股票（股价完全没动）。分析师此前预测没有增长，但来自人工智能(AI)需求的囤货可能会让营收预期翻三倍。想知道有人能猜到吗？
英文原文
There's a hilarious hardware hoarding cycle right now like $SNDK SSDs. Everyone is buying this, but not the stock (hasn't moved at all). Analysts were projecting no growth, but hoarding from AI demand likely triples revenue estimates. Wondering if anyone can guess?
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指出Hubspot免费工具对Palantir商业模式的颠覆性影响。
@platochi 确实，我此前未充分考虑到 Hubspot 的免费博客生成器对 $PLTR 商业模式造成的巨大颠覆性影响。https://t.co/TZPr82RRss
英文原文
@platochi True, I didn’t consider how much Hubspot’s free blog maker is very disruptive to $PLTR business model. https://t.co/TZPr82RRss
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讽刺 Burry 因 $PLTR 估值逻辑被驳斥而屏蔽批评者。
如果你用“Palantir 帮助美国政府利用黑盒 AI 程序入侵委内瑞拉”这一事实来回应 Burry 对 $PLTR 的做空论点，并且指出将其估值与小型企业营销工具 Hubspot 进行比较站不住脚，他会屏蔽你并隐藏你的评论！显然，当他的每月 385 美元占星术“头肩形态技术分析”和“Hubspot 与 Palantir 估值图表”在公开讨论中无法自圆其说时，这确实戳到了他的痛点。
英文原文
If you respond to Burry’s $PLTR short thesis with the fact that: Palantir helped the US government invade Venezuela with black box AI programs. And comparing the valuation to Hubspot, a small business marketing tool doesn’t hold up. He will block you and hide your comment! Clearly hits a nerve when his $385/month subscription for astrology “head and shoulders TA” and “Hubspot vs. Palantir valuation charts” doesn’t hold up to public discussion.
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英伟达市值达4.4万亿美元，获应得尊重。
@longinvest32 $NVDA 已经是一家市值 4.4 万亿美元的公司。我认为英伟达(Nvidia)正得到它应得的尊重！
英文原文
@longinvest32 $NVDA is already a $4.4T company. I think Nvidia is getting the respect it deserves!
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建议定投$EWY以布局存储周期，并澄清期权策略不适合所有人。
@TalentActivity 是的，定投(DCA) $EWY 股票似乎是获取三星/海力士敞口并参与存储超级周期的绝佳想法。这条帖子只是在讨论2028年的跳跃以及由定价不足的波动率带来的隐含波动率(Vega)扩张，期权并不适合所有人。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Yeah DCA $EWY shares seem like a great idea to get exposure to Samsung/Sk Hynix and the memory supercycle. This post was just discussing 2028 leaps and vega expansion from underpriced volatility, options are not the best way to go for everyone.
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利用$EWY期权定价错误，做多看涨期权以捕捉存储超级周期带来的维加扩张。
我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利，并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型(Black-Scholes models)。 $EWY 的看涨期权似乎定价错误。 这是贝莱德(Blackrock)的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 该指数每日波动2-5%以上，尽管隐含波动率(IV)定价像普通指数，但过去一年仍上涨了136.25%。 三星波动大。SK海力士波动也大（例如估算65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，约为32%的IV。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来很波动。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MMs)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价IV，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会均值回归。 但这种波动应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数中受益。 主要好处是你无法从 $KORU 获得的维加(Vega)扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国的国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别成分股SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本上占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动性定价，可能是因为基于5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从维加扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻性波动率估算过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的历史波动率较低。
英文原文
Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel: Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models. $EWY long options seem mispriced. This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix). The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV. Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est). But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV. I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile. As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean. But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV). Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index. And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU. You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term. TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile. They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data. Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
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微软拟弃用OpenAI模型，转而使用自研前沿模型。
Windows Central报道：“微软AI负责人Mustafa Suleyman向FT确认，公司正准备弃用OpenAI的模型。” 话虽如此，该报道措辞非常耸人听闻，我引用它时感到有些抱歉。 但这可能有一定依据，鉴于$MSFT正在构建自己的前沿模型(frontier models)并计划使用它们来替代OpenAI。
英文原文
Windows Central. "Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman just confirmed to FT that the firm is gearing up to ditch OpenAI's models." That being said the report is worded very sensationally and I feel bad for quoting it. But likely has some basis with $MSFT building their own frontier models and using them instead of OpenAI.
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看好NBIS长期价值，但短期面临融资稀释及宏观压力。
我两天前覆盖过 $NBIS。目前的动量交易焦点已转向内存/光子学(Photonics)，因为新云厂商(Neoclouds)在去年获得超大规模云厂商(Hyperscaler)订单后，目前处于静默建设阶段（每周鲜有新消息）。 尽管如此，我仍然看好 $NBIS，鉴于其年度经常性收入(ARR)达到80亿美元，且Clickhouse与Avride的加总估值(Sum of Parts)支撑有力（Clickhouse估值达150亿美元；例如若以400亿美元估值融资，其28%的股权价值为112亿美元，几乎相当于其当前市值的一半），我对Q4财报给出的牛市目标价为400美元。 不过，由于超额配售选择权(ATM)抛压、为能源公司(ER)3GW管道融资可能带来的稀释、宏观因素以及建设期间的资本支出(Capex)支出，短期内存在较大压力。
英文原文
I covered $NBIS 2 days ago. The momentum trade is now memory/photonics since neoclouds are in the silent buildout phase (with little new news weekly) after getting hyperscaler deals last year. That being said I still like $NBIS, $400 bull case PT Q4 earnings given they hit $8B ARR, Clickhouse + Avride carries sum of parts (Clickhouse hit $15B valuation, Eg if they raise at $40B that 28% equity is 11.2B, almost half their current valuation). That being said there’s a lot of short term pressure from ATM overhangs + possible dilution as they raise for the 3GW pipeline from ER, macro (largely), and capex spend during the buildout.
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批评法案将基础设施让给银行，警告其将扼杀加密创新及COIN前景。
《Clarity Act》（清晰法案）简直是对整个加密货币行业的毒丸核弹，将所有基础设施拱手让给银行。禁止稳定币使用第三方收益，使得银行可以维持其0.01%的支票账户利率。要求接触资金流必须拥有银行牌照或IDI（存款机构）资格，这对你们风投组合中的大多数公司来说都是有效的核打击。继续坚持斗争，政府政策显然在确保美元作为所有加密货币的底层货币，这一点我们可以认同。但同时不要允许银行加入那些会摧毁加密货币和 $COIN 长期创新的条款。
英文原文
The Clarity Act is just a poison pill nuke on the entire crypto industry, giving all the rails over to banks. Banning 3rd party yields for stablecoins allows banks to just keep their .01% interest rate checking. Then having banking licenses or IDI requirements to even touch flow of funds is an effective nuke on majority of your venture portfolio companies. Keep up the good fight, Gov policy is obviously making sure Dollar is bottom line currency for all crypto that is fine to align on. But at the same time don’t let banks throw in provisions that nukes the long term innovation for crypto and $COIN.
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七巨头盈利强劲支撑科技股，但加密市场低迷警示短期流动性风险。
我认为“七巨头”(Mag7)的盈利过于强劲，不足以引发全面修正。$META 指引营收增长约 30%。$GOOGL 庞大的 1800 亿美元资本支出由其 2025 年超 1320 亿美元的营业利润资助。这些资金流入 AI、存储和半导体领域，为其提供了底部支撑（例如，存储占 AI 集群物料清单(BOM)的很大比例）。即使是其他板块的中盘股如 $RDDT，在 35% 的净利率转化为净利润后，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)估值也接近 26-30 倍，营收同比增长 70% 且远期增长超 50%。增长目前看来仍可持续，且软件等其他板块大幅折价。但比特币/以太坊尚未恢复通常是短期流动性问题的最佳“煤矿金丝雀”(canary in the coal mine)。我预计中期选举前会出现更广泛的复苏。
英文原文
IMO Mag7 earnings are too strong for a full-blown correction. $META projecting guided ~30% revenue growth. $GOOGL's enormous $180B capex spend is funded by it's $132B+ operating income from 2025. All those funds trickle down into AI, memory, semis and puts a floor on them (eg. memory is a huge percentage of BOM for AI clusters). Even mid cap in other segments like $RDDT, is close to ~26-30 forward P/E estimates after 35% of revenue as net income -> 70% Y/Y revenue growth and 50%+ forward. Growth still looks sustainable right now, and other segments like software are heavily discounted. But the fact Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues. I'd expect a broader recovery going forward to midterms.
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推荐$LASR作为定向能激光领域最佳标的
@metapata 如果人们有生之年想看到这一点，$LASR 是对定向能激光(Directed Energy Lasers) 暴露度最好的标的之一 https://t.co/eNPepoBrk7
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@metapata If people ever want to see this in their lifetime, $LASR has one of the best exposure to energy directed lasers https://t.co/eNPepoBrk7
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分享$LASR大涨30%+，看好其定向能激光技术在国防及机器人领域的应用潜力。
$LASR 自上个月我提及以来已上涨近 30%+。显然，市场（和男人们）真的很喜欢那种能像拦截高超音速导弹一样击落任何目标的“死光”激光束。不难想象国防部将激光束安装在 $TSLA Optimus 机器人上并派它们去参战。如果美国正在从太空建造《星球大战》中的死星或《终结者》中的天网，这家公司就是那个核心。话虽如此，我目前并未持有该股票，但认为其他人可能会欣赏这类低调的公司。定向能激光（Directed Energy Lasers）确实非常未来感十足且酷炫。
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$LASR is up almost 30%+ now since I mentioned it last month. Apparently markets (and guys) really like death ray laser beams that shoot anything down like hypersonic missiles. It’s not too hard to imagine the DoD attaching laser beams to $TSLA Optimus Robots and sending them off to war. If America is building the Death Star in space from Star Wars or the Terminator from Skyney, this company would be it. That being said, don’t have any right now, but thought others might appreciate under the radar companies like this. Energy directed lasers are just so futuristic and cool.
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看好瓶颈ETF名单，认为该板块将跑赢大盘。
@rwang07 当然！瓶颈 ETF 是非官方自封的最酷 ETF。只等 @matthew_sigel 将其加入 VanEck。这是一个很扎实的名单，我认为该板块应该能跑赢大盘。
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@rwang07 Of course! The bottleneck ETF is the unofficial, self proclaimed coolest ETF. Just waiting for @matthew_sigel to add it to Vaneck. It’s a solid list, I think the group should outperform.
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LPTH是国防锗瓶颈，短期受板块拖累，长期受益于供应链转移。
$LPTH 主要是国防领域的锗瓶颈。它似乎更多是从中国供应链向美国黑钻（Black Diamond）过渡的长期受益者。 它在算法上与国防板块挂钩（近期因缺乏催化剂，从 $ONDS 到 $AVAV 均下跌）。如果美国入侵伊朗，该交易可能会再次火热。 不太可能看到像 $GOOGL 和 $AMZN 资本支出带来的半导体供应链瓶颈那样巨大的短期飙升。或者像 $AXTI 因光子学应用可能看到的瓶颈+涨价。 但从 Andruil、$NOC、$ONDS 等来看，长期应有增量收入。
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$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond. And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again. Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage. But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue
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看好$U回调机会，认为AI辅助而非取代$FIG设计。
自关注4D物理AI+世界模型(World Models)供应链以来，我一直在跟踪$U。 我认为他们并非纯粹的游戏公司。我认为-30%的跌幅是市场在提示我建立一些头寸。 同意。对于$FIG等公司，AI只是帮助将Figma设计转化为HTML/CSS/JS等代码，而非取代它。
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I’ve been following $U since looking at 4D physical AI + World Models supply chains. Don’t think they’re purely gaming related. I think the -30% drop is the world telling me to enter some positions. And agreed. With others like $FIG, AI just helps translate the Figma designs into stuff like HTML/CSS/JS rather than replacing it.
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质疑 $U 因微小业绩不及预期暴跌，批评市场对 AI 软件股的非理性恐慌。
很抱歉，但 $U 营收指引仅低于预期 0.8%……股价却暴跌 34%？ 看到市场因为一家公司做软件业务，就在 AI 领域非理性恐慌，这很有趣。 https://t.co/WWsgjvyjYb
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I’m sorry but did $U just miss revenue guidance by -.8%… then drop 34%? It’s interesting to see markets irrationally panicking from AI if a company does software. https://t.co/WWsgjvyjYb
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Reddit 业绩超预期却暴跌，作者认为其网络效应难被 AI 颠覆，是错杀机会。
-41.96% 的暴跌发生在 $RDDT 上，尽管它全面超预期且同比增长 70%，净利率达 35%，这太疯狂了。 你无法通过“氛围编程(vibecode)”来复制 Reddit 的网络效应。你也无法用与 ChatGPT 对话来取代超级碗(Super Bowl)帖子中的人性元素。 这可能是我近期在“实际上未被 AI 颠覆”类别中看到的最佳机会。 但确实，算法(algos)在疯狂做空。
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-41.96% crash on $RDDT for beating all estimates and growing 70% Y/Y off 35% net income margins is wild. You can’t vibecode the network effect Reddit has. And you can’t defeat the human element for Super Bowl threads by talking with ChatGPT. Probably best opportunity I’ve seen in awhile from the “not actually disrupted by AI” bucket. But yeah algos go brrr
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Reddit被错杀，高毛利轻资产模式使其极具投资价值。
我觉得 $RDDT 被错误地归入那些会被 AI 颠覆的“软件”类股票中。然后当 Reddit 状况良好时，它却跟着一起被抛售。我不认为你还能再看到一家中型市值公司实现 70% 的同比增长、91.5% 的毛利率以及约 27-30 倍的前瞻市盈率（Forward P/E）。而且他们的前瞻预估增长率约为 54%。他们 35% 的收入是净利润，这太离谱了。上个季度授权收入仅占总收入的 5%（几乎可以忽略不计），而且很可能只会增加。由于业务模式如此轻量化，收入增长直接转化为底线利润。在 141 美元价位，Reddit 就是一台印钞机。
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I feel like $RDDT gets added to the “software” names that gets disrupted by AI bucket by mistake. Then gets sold off together when Reddit is fine. Don’t think you’ll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y, 91.5% gross margin, ~27-30 forward p/e again. And they’re forward estimates are ~54% 35% of their revenue is net income, which is absurd. Licensing revenue was 5% of total revenue (almost nonfactor) last quarter and is likely to only go up. Revenue increases just hit the bottom line since it’s so lightweight. Reddit is a money printer at $141.
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VPG单月获百万美元订单，体量达此前总和三分之一，前景看涨。
@savelikameisha 谢谢，我在电话会议期间睡着了 lol。如果那是后续订单，$VPG 在 1 个月内获得 $1M 的订单实际上是非常看涨的。直到 10 月，他们的总订单流为 $3.6M，而基本上他们在 1 个月内就获得了其中 1/3 的体量。
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@savelikameisha Thanks, I fell asleep during the call lol. $1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that’s a follow-on order. Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until Oct and they got 1/3rd that volume in 1 month basically
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VPG获Optimus大额订单，看好其未来量产预期。
对于 $VPG 来说，这实际上非常有前景：2026年1月为100万美元，这是其后续订单（可能每个机器人500美元，即2000台）。根据你们的数据，直到10月他们的总订单流为360万美元，而单月就达到了其总量的1/3.6。鉴于我们现在知道 Optimus 将在今年晚些时候加速量产，我对未来的预测比过去的预测更感兴趣。
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For $VPG that’s actually really promising it’s $1m for January 2026 and that’s its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units) Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month from your numbers I’d be more curious about future projections rather than previous ones since now we know Optimus is ramping up later in the year.
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VPG财报数据次要，人形机器人订单及冻结风险才是关键。
@mholz315 是的，每股收益(ER)数据只是噪音，最重要的是$VPG CEO在电话会议中提到的关于那3780万美元人形机器人订单及潜在冻结的情况。
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@mholz315 Yeah the ER figures are just noise, most important thing is what the $VPG CEO mentions during the call regarding humanoid orders of that $37.8M and potential freezes.
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3700万超预期利好产能爬坡，待VPG会议澄清。
@mholz315 那个3700万美元的数字是多方面的，不仅仅是像Optimus这样的人形机器人。但由于这是一个强劲的超预期表现，这对产能爬坡(ramp)是一个积极的信号。 正如你提到的，现在最重要的是在$VPG电话会议上得到澄清。
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@mholz315 That $37M figure is multifaceted, it's not purely humanoids like Optimus. But it's a positive tell for ramp since it was a strong beat. As you mentioned, most important thing is clarification on the $VPG call now.
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$VPG财报营收超预期但EPS不及预期，人形机器人业务强劲增长被市场误读。
$VPG 发布了财报。简而言之： 营收：8060万美元 vs. 共识预期：约7810万美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(EPS)：0.07美元 vs. 共识预期：约0.20-0.21美元（不及预期） 毛利率：降至36.8%（去年同期为38.2%）——主要受外汇等一次性因素影响。 值得关注点： 人形机器人板块——其2025全年目标是从“战略增长计划”（机器人、先进传感器）中预订3000万美元订单。 实际：3780万美元——这一预测被大幅超越，超出近800万美元。 其他产品有很多噪音，市场主要应关注人形机器人的增长，看起来正在加速。 当然，这3780万美元的数据是多方面的。 没什么太惊人的，但简而言之： 传统业务（钢铁、称重等）：平均在增长 新业务（人形机器人）：正在快速增长 市场对此反应错误，因为$VPG未来最看涨的板块是人形机器人，且看起来正在加速。 除此之外，虽然不算爆发式增长，但对于强劲的机器人板块超预期是积极的，我将等待电话会议以获取与人形机器人相关的问题解答。
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$VPG reported earnings. TLDR: Revenue: $80.6 Million vs. Consensus: ~$78.1 Million (BEAT) Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs. Consensus: ~$0.20 - $0.21 (MISS) Gross Margin: Fell to 36.8% (down from 38.2% a year ago) - mainly one off like FX. What to look out for: Humanoid section - Their goal for the full year 2025 was to book $30 million in orders from "Strategic Growth Initiatives" (Robots, Advanced Sensors). Actual: $37.8 million - They crushed this projection by nearly $8 million. There’s a lot of noise from other products, main thing markets should be looking out for is humanoid growth, which looks to be ramping up. Of course that $37.8M number is multifaceted. Nothing too amazing but tldr: Legacy Business (Steel, weighing, etc.): Is growing on average New Business (humanoids): Is growing rapidly Markets are taking this the wrong way since the most bullish segment going forward for $VPG is humanoids, and it looks to be ramping up. That aside, not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat, will wait for conference call for humanoids related questions.