· 个股论点
涉及标的： $NBIS
我两天前覆盖过 $NBIS。目前的动量交易焦点已转向内存/光子学(Photonics)，因为新云厂商(Neoclouds)在去年获得超大规模云厂商(Hyperscaler)订单后，目前处于静默建设阶段（每周鲜有新消息）。 尽管如此，我仍然看好 $NBIS，鉴于其年度经常性收入(ARR)达到80亿美元，且Clickhouse与Avride的加总估值(Sum of Parts)支撑有力（Clickhouse估值达150亿美元；例如若以400亿美元估值融资，其28%的股权价值为112亿美元，几乎相当于其当前市值的一半），我对Q4财报给出的牛市目标价为400美元。 不过，由于超额配售选择权(ATM)抛压、为能源公司(ER)3GW管道融资可能带来的稀释、宏观因素以及建设期间的资本支出(Capex)支出，短期内存在较大压力。
I covered $NBIS 2 days ago. The momentum trade is now memory/photonics since neoclouds are in the silent buildout phase (with little new news weekly) after getting hyperscaler deals last year. That being said I still like $NBIS, $400 bull case PT Q4 earnings given they hit $8B ARR, Clickhouse + Avride carries sum of parts (Clickhouse hit $15B valuation, Eg if they raise at $40B that 28% equity is 11.2B, almost half their current valuation). That being said there’s a lot of short term pressure from ATM overhangs + possible dilution as they raise for the 3GW pipeline from ER, macro (largely), and capex spend during the buildout.