· 个股论点
我认为“七巨头”(Mag7)的盈利过于强劲，不足以引发全面修正。$META 指引营收增长约 30%。$GOOGL 庞大的 1800 亿美元资本支出由其 2025 年超 1320 亿美元的营业利润资助。这些资金流入 AI、存储和半导体领域，为其提供了底部支撑（例如，存储占 AI 集群物料清单(BOM)的很大比例）。即使是其他板块的中盘股如 $RDDT，在 35% 的净利率转化为净利润后，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)估值也接近 26-30 倍，营收同比增长 70% 且远期增长超 50%。增长目前看来仍可持续，且软件等其他板块大幅折价。但比特币/以太坊尚未恢复通常是短期流动性问题的最佳“煤矿金丝雀”(canary in the coal mine)。我预计中期选举前会出现更广泛的复苏。
IMO Mag7 earnings are too strong for a full-blown correction. $META projecting guided ~30% revenue growth. $GOOGL's enormous $180B capex spend is funded by it's $132B+ operating income from 2025. All those funds trickle down into AI, memory, semis and puts a floor on them (eg. memory is a huge percentage of BOM for AI clusters). Even mid cap in other segments like $RDDT, is close to ~26-30 forward P/E estimates after 35% of revenue as net income -> 70% Y/Y revenue growth and 50%+ forward. Growth still looks sustainable right now, and other segments like software are heavily discounted. But the fact Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues. I'd expect a broader recovery going forward to midterms.