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说这个行业被做成了给散户提供退出流动性的赚钱机器。
@JRichy6406 基本上，他们把它搞成了一个印钞机器 -> 给散户提供退出流动性。 或者只是把更多资金灌进被高估的代币里，好把价格抬上去。 他们完全忘了这个行业原本该往哪走。
英文原文
@JRichy6406 Basically, they turned it into a way for printing money -> exit liquidity on retail. Or just funneling more into overpriced tokens, just to raise the prices. Completely lost vision about where the industry is heading.
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说 WLFI 并不过时，只是没人知道发生了什么。
不是的，它并不过时……只是大家都不知道到底发生了什么？ 比如 $WLFI 就在那儿，因为他们原本是要做“让没银行服务的人也能接入金融”的（因为特朗普家族被银行去风险）。结果在代币融资之后就什么也不做了？ 总得还有别的 $CRCL 之类的项目吧。
英文原文
No it's not obsolete... But just nobody knows what TF happened? $WLFI was there for example, because they set out to bank the unbanked (because Trump's family got de-banked). Then it just doesn't do anything after token raise -> sales? There's gotta be another $CRCL or others out there.
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批评加密圈忘了区块链原本的用途。
这感觉就像……对冲基金 / VC 突然忘了区块链本来是干什么的？ 他们居然把数字资产变成了： 代币融资 -> 散户退出流动性，循环往复。 现在，没人再在乎“治理币”或 gas 代币了，因为那只是印钞后的更大傻瓜理论。 区块链最初的意义，是尽可能减少中间商，也顺带把费用降下来。 尽管如此： 1. 3 天 ACH 通道还在……虽然我们已经有 0 成本的支付通道。 2. 巨额 interchange 还在……虽然我们已经有 0 成本的支付通道。 3. 数字资产“信用卡”只是给 Visa/Mastercard 又包了一层更磨损的外壳。 4. 储蓄账户利率还是 0.3%，而现在法律还在试图堵住和稳定币相关的收益。 数字资产原本想做到的事，除了稳定币之外，几乎都没实现。 也许你们只是盲目追下一家 $HOOD / Hyperliquid（代币化、链上股票），或者盲目跟着 Ethereum，所以表现才会这么差。 重点不是靠代币价格上涨赚钱，再把 meme 币的癫狂变现。 而是要去资助真正有颠覆性的项目，比如 Bridge（稳定币出金/入金、interchange）之类。 这个圈子里绝大多数人毫无 alpha，因为他们都忘了它最初到底是为了什么。
英文原文
It's like... Hedge Funds/VCs suddenly forgot what blockchain was ever supposed to do? They somehow turned digital assets into: Token raise -> retail exit liquidity on repeat. Now, nobody cares anymore about "governance or gas" tokens since it's greater fools theory from printed money. The original point of blockchain is removing as many middlemen as possible, and as a byproduct, the fees. Despite all of this: 1. 3 Day ACH rails are still around... Even though we have payment rails for 0 cents. 2. Massive interchange is still around... despite having payment rails at 0 cents... 3. Digital Asset "Credit Cards" are just more friction-add wrappers around Visa/Mastercard. 4. Yields are still .3% in checking accounts and now laws are trying to bank stablecoin related yields. Very little that digital assets set out to do actually got accomplished, aside from Stablecoins? Maybe you all have bad performance by just blindly following the next L2 exchange token or blindly into Ethereum. It's not about making money from token prices going up + monetizing degeneracy from meme coins. It's to be funding any legitimate disruptors, like the next $HOOD/Hyperliquid (Tokenization, on-chain equities), Bridge (stablecoin off-ramps/intercharge), etc. 0 alpha from the vast majority of folks in that space, because everyone there lost vision on what it was originally supposed to do.
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感谢正面评论，说做账号是为了免费分享想法。
感谢你的正面评论！我开这个账号就是为了免费分享我的想法；如果它能帮到别人，我会很有成就感。 如果我的想法最后没对，我也能理解别人会有怨气…… 但如果它们都涨了 100-500%+，散户投资者不是应该庆祝，而不是贬低或者人身攻击吗？ 这才是让我真正困惑的地方。
英文原文
Thanks for the positive comment! I made this account so I can just share my ideas for free and I get fulfillment if it helps others. I would understand the resentment if my ideas didn't turn out right... But if they go up 100-500%+, shouldn't retail investors be celebrating instead of downplaying it or going after personal attacks? That's what makes me genuinely confused.
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回顾自己在 WSB 被封和多只名字被骂空的经历。
一个有意思的事实：我在 WSB 子版块里因为 $AXTI 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元以上而被封了，原因是版主气得不行，因为它一直涨，而且后来证明我是对的。 像 $RPI 这种名字因为“meme stock”叙事被无休止地攻击，连 FT 和新闻媒体都这样……但最后还是翻倍了。 $SOI 之类的名字也被无穷无尽地骂成拉盘砸盘。 $SIVE 之类的名字也被无休止地攻击，带着一堆瑞典式的酸味。 $AEHR 之类的也一样。 还有 $SOI，也一直被人喷成“肯定别人比我先建仓了”。 我也不知道……只要你是第一个发现的人，就会招来一大堆仇恨评论。等它变成 50-100 亿美元市值、涨了 1000%+ 之后，大家才会说“哦，原来可以做多啊”。
英文原文
Fun fact I got banned on WSB subreddit after $AXTI went from $12 to $80+ because Mods got mad it kept going up and played out correctly. Names like $RPI got endless harassment over "meme stock" narratives. Including FT and news media... but it ended up doubling anyway. Names like $SOI, endless pump and dump harassment. Names like $SIVE, endless Swedish salt harassment. Names like $AEHR, endless harassment. Names like $SOI, endless harassment thinking someone else went long before I did. Idk... whenever you're first to something, it's just a ton of hate comments. And only after it's a $5-10B+ company after going up 1000%+ is it "okay" to go long.
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列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
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说看完评论后对 LWLG 的看法更负面了。
@FrankMakrides 看完你的评论后我改主意了，现在对 $LWLG 的看法更偏负面了。
英文原文
@FrankMakrides Changed my mind after reading your comments, have a more negative opinion on $LWLG now.
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说 Huberman 也认为 HIMS 会大涨。
Huberman 的确说过 $HIMS 在今天这种走势里会一路上去…… 看到斯坦福教授怎么看公开市场股票，也挺有意思的。 https://t.co/jqVtpEaoGB
英文原文
Huberman did say $HIMS was set to soar… in this type of arc playing out today. Interesting to see takes from Stanford professors on public equities. https://t.co/jqVtpEaoGB
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说希望对方几个月后证明自己错了。
@Marketmakemkc 这也合理，几个月后希望你能证明我错了！
英文原文
@Marketmakemkc That’s fair, hope you prove me wrong in a few months time!
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为自己发表意见道歉。
@Noobverest 抱歉，我只是有个观点而已。
英文原文
@Noobverest I’m sorry for having an opinion
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在旁观拉升后发表自己对 $6.5 的看法。
@themissinglinks 6.5 美元。我只是一直在旁边看着它一路拉上去，想顺手说说我的看法。
英文原文
@themissinglinks $6.5. Just been watching the rally up on the sidelines, thought I’d throw my opinion out there
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认为富士康光学供应链比无营收试制公司更有价值。
@StrateGeee 鸿海这边是活生生的……$NVDA 的光学供应链，负责封装、测试和组装…… 居然比一个没有收入的 $LWLG 和 $TSEM 之间的开发试验还便宜。
英文原文
@StrateGeee Foxconn’s live.. $NVDA optical supply chain for packaging, test, and assembly.. Is valued less than a development trial between no revenue $LWLG and $TSEM
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质疑 LWLG 估值，拿 Shunsin 和 SIVEF 做对比。
抱歉，但我越来越确信 $LWLG 就是光子领域里的当前 $RGTI。 我完全不懂……他们怎么会值 18 亿美元。 鸿海的光学业务 Shunsin，给 $NVDA 做 CPO 的封装、组装和测试…… 估值反而只有 14 亿美元？ 而 $SIVEF 作为 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的激光源，前几天估值还只有它们的三分之一？ 感觉像是傻钱机构因为一份开发测试协议，买错了名字。 我没有持仓，只是觉得困惑。
英文原文
Sorry but I’m convinced $LWLG is the current $RGTI of photonics. I have zero clue… How they’re valued at $1.8B. Foxconn’s optical arm Shunsin, for $NVDA CPO packaging, assembly, and testing… Is valued less at $1.4B? $SIVEF, the laser source for $JBL and $MRVL was 1/3rd their valuation earlier this week? Feels like dumb money institutions went into the wrong name off a development test agreement. I have no open positions, just confused
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说这些名字大概率还会继续冲，自己是在抢跑机构。
@Lee_Trades 我提到的这些名字大概率还会继续往上冲。 三位数回报看起来很多……但那不是因为我个人在追 10 倍。 这更像是在一个超级周期最早期抢在机构前面。
英文原文
@Lee_Trades All of the names I’ve mentioned are likely to keep on running. The triple digit return looks like a lot… but it’s not cause I’m personally chasing 10x. This is what it feels like to frontrun institutions at the very beginning of a supercycle
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说这不是 FOMO，而是美国人更懂需求和光子。
@princebtc28 这不是 FOMO。美国人只是比欧洲那些普通散户和媒体更懂 hyperscaler 的需求和 photonics。 如果瑞典散户想把他们的前沿激光公司转给美国机构，然后错过上涨，那是他们自己的选择。
英文原文
@princebtc28 It’s not fomo. Americans just understand hyperscaler demand and photonics better than random retail and media in Europe. If Swedish retail want to transfer their frontier laser company over to American institutions and miss out on the upside, it’s their choice.
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建议写 16 个名字的 thesis 并高集中做多。
@UntappedAlpha 给 16 个单独名字各写一篇 thesis 帖。 高集中度做多。 4 个月里让它们都涨 100-1000%+？其实很简单，说真的。
英文原文
@UntappedAlpha Write a thesis post on 16 individual names. Go long on them with high concentration. The have them all return 100-1000%+ in 4 months? Pretty simple tbh
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看好 Shunsin 翻倍，难接受其估值低于 LWLG。
@TD_btc24 我很看好 Shunsin（6451）翻倍。很难接受鸿海的光学封装业务估值还低于 $LWLG，笑死。
英文原文
@TD_btc24 Pretty confident in Shunsin (6451) doubling. Hard to see Foxconn’s optical packaging arm valued less than $LWLG lol
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说 SOI 已是今年第 16 只翻倍股。
哇，$SOI 现在已经成了我第 16 只…… 我今年写过的 mini thesis 里，已经有一只回报超过 100% 了。 最近两只是 $ALRIB 和 $RPI。 为什么我身边的一切都在翻倍？ https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
英文原文
Wow $SOI is now the 16th name... I've done a mininthesis post on that returned over 100% Year to Date. The most recent two were $ALRIB and $RPI. Why does everything around me keep doubling? https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
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说自己会继续拿着，等结果出来。
@Andres17G @RayBraha 票还没出来，我个人还是继续拿着，等结果再看。不过显然我也不高兴。
英文原文
@Andres17G @RayBraha Votes aren’t out yet, I’m personally still holding until we see the results. But obviously not happy about it
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原本想要 50%，结果市场给了 95%。
@ehaibag 我本来还希望能有 50%……结果市场大概会在 1 周内给 $SIVE 95% 的涨幅。 https://t.co/PcRGZXq20F
英文原文
@ehaibag I was hoping for 50%… but guess markets will settle on 95% in 1 week with $SIVE https://t.co/PcRGZXq20F
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说自己只是想看 AXTI 还能涨多高。
@RayBraha 我不需要啊？我只是好奇 $AXTI 还能涨到多高，也想看看我的 thesis 怎么兑现。
英文原文
@RayBraha I don’t need to? I’m just curious how high $AXTI can go and I want to see how my thesis play out.
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说自己在 AXTI 上已经浮盈 1000%。
只是世界想让我在 $AXTI 上实现 1000% 的未实现收益而已。 这大概是我到现在为止最传奇的一篇 thesis。 https://t.co/WR6Fq1Vyez
英文原文
It’s just that the world wanted me to reach 1000% unrealized gains on $AXTI. My most legendary thesis to date. https://t.co/WR6Fq1Vyez
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AEHR 获得 4100 万美元产线订单。
$AEHR 从核心 hyperscaler 客户那里拿到了 4100 万美元的量产订单。 我在财报后就说过，他们暗示“很快”会开始放量。 就是这个。$AEHR 今天因消息上涨了 13%。 https://t.co/rpF3qTHoJz
英文原文
$AEHR receives $41M production order from lead hyperscaler customer. As I said after earnings, they indicated volume ramp “shortly after”. This is it. $AEHR +13% today on the news. https://t.co/rpF3qTHoJz
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说 HPS.A 这周表现不错，但自己并非无条件看多。
$HPS.A 这一周表现相当不错……请别问我在没变的情况下是不是还看多。 它还是大概涨了 18.4% 左右，价格不会直线上行。 不过话说回来，你最好还是自己建立判断，这样答案你自己也能决定。
英文原文
It's been a solid... 1 week for $HPS.A, please don't ask me if I'm still bullish if nothings changed. It's still up 18.4% or so, things don't move up in a straight line. But that aside, probably better to develop your own conviction on it, so you can decide that answer for yourself.
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分析ALRIB作为超大规模云厂商关键供应商的量子/硅光投资逻辑，预期被重估。
其实不需要对 $ALRIB 写得很详细吧？ >Riber 与 $VECO 在 MBE 设备上形成有效的盈利双头垄断格局，此前交易时远期倍数较低。 >从公开信息发现 $MSFT Quantum 是 Riber 的核心超大规模云厂商买家 >其他客户包括 $IQE、QD Laser（量子点）、IntelliEPI 等。 思考过程： 还有哪些市值低于10亿美元的公司直接向 $GOOGL、$MSFT 等超大规模云厂商供应产品，用于他们的前沿(frontier)项目？ 而且这些供应商是否关键到无法被替代？ 除了 $AEHR 我真的想不出其他公司，但 $AEHR 现在市值已经从6亿美元涨到23亿美元了…… 所以我认为 $ALRIB 对于量子/硅光子领域的敞口很有吸引力。 如果一家市值约3亿美元的盈利公司正在为超大规模云厂商的前沿量子项目提供支持…… 很可能在未来某个时间点被重新估值到三位数（美元）。
英文原文
It doesn't need to be detailed with $ALRIB? > Riber effective, profitable duopoly with $VECO on MBE equipment, that traded at low fwd multiples. > $MSFT Quantum as core hyperscaler buyer of Riber from public information discovery > $IQE, QD Laser (Quantum dot), IntelliEPI and others using it. Thought process: What other companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers like $GOOGL to $MSFT for their frontier programs? And are critical suppliers that can't be replaced? Can't really name any aside from $AEHR, but that's now $2.3B from $600m... So thought $ALRIB was compelling for Quantum/Silicon Photonics exposure. If a profitable ~300m company is powering a hyperscaler's quantum frontier program… Probably going to get re-rated triple digits over time.
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高确信看好 SIVE，NASDAQL 上市在即。
@jonnylee47 我对 $SIVE 的信心很高，尤其是现在这个价位。 你很少会看到 $JBL 或 $MRVL 的激光供应商只值 7 亿美元。再加上很快就会在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构资金会进来。
英文原文
@jonnylee47 High conviction on $SIVE, especially at current levels. You don't see the laser supplier of $JBL or $MRVL sitting at $700m every day. Also it helps there's NASDAQ listing for US institutional inflows soon.
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建议看下一轮光子周期，不必畏惧已涨多的名字。
如果你对像 $LITE 这种已经涨了很多的名字感到不舒服，你可以去看看下一轮光子周期的曝光。 像鸿海光学封装业务 Shunsin 这种我真的很喜欢……或者 $SIVE 这种 1.6T / CPO 激光，即使在现在这个价位也是。 $SOI 也还有很多空间。 分几天做成本均摊也没坏处。
英文原文
If you're uncomfortable with names that already went up a lot like $LITE, you can try for exposure in the next optical cycle. Stuff like Shunsin for Foxconn's optical packaging arm i genuinely really liked... or $SIVE for 1.6T/CPO lasers, even at current levels. $SOI still has a lot of room to go. Doesn't hurt to cost average over multiple days.
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说自己在 AXTI 上只剩 720% 浮盈。
@Investmnt_Eagle 我现在在 $AXTI 上只剩一个 720% 的未实现收益。 我本来想要 1000%，所以就自己继续拿着。看看股东投票结果会怎样。 https://t.co/k5Fv95deSA
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle I’m just sitting on a small 720% unrealized gain on $AXTI. Wanted 1000% so just holding personally. We’ll see how the shareholder vote turns out https://t.co/k5Fv95deSA
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说这些股票每天涨 5-10%。
@Cheva28789724 这些名字就是每天涨 5-10% 啊，笑死。 有时候你只需要坐着，让机构自己慢慢买。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 These names just keeps going up 5-10% a day lol. Sometimes you just need to sit back and let the institutions accumulate.
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说 IQE 可能很快会超过 AXTI 的传奇 thesis。
我对 $IQE 的判断……可能很快就会超过我那篇传奇的 $AXTI thesis？ 才过了 2 个月： 现在在机构开始公开买入后，涨幅已经超过 +316%，而且还在继续涨。 欧洲那边像 $ALRIB、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这种关键瓶颈股最近也很有意思。 我觉得它们从现在开始大概率还会再复合出三位数涨幅，即使已经涨了一大截。 散户这还是第一次这么早。 所以，预计很快会有大量机构资金涌入这些关键供应链公司，尤其是 $SIVE，等 NASDAQ 上市之后。
英文原文
My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon? It’s only been 2 months: Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up. Fun time for critical chokepoints like $ALRIB, $SIVE, and $SOI recently in Europe. Probably expect them all to compound another triple digits from here, even after all their rallies. Retail is just extremely early for the first time. So, expect a lot of institutional capital to pour into these critical supply chains companies soon, especially $SIVE after Nasdaq listing.