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AEHR暗示硅光子学扩产，若明确CPO则Msscorps受益。
@JJJJJ_66666 情况很微妙，$AEHR 的暗示更多是指向更广泛的硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)相关产能爬坡。这可能包括 800G/1.6T 可插拔光模块，或共封装光学(CPO)。如果他们直接点名 CPO，Msscorps 将是一个非常清晰的受益标的。它最近因延迟说法遭受重创（即使...
英文原文
@JJJJJ_66666 It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even
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博主术后无法收听AEHR财报电话会。
@RiversSmith3 兄弟，我刚做完手术出来，不幸的是，我没法在血流不止的时候听 $AEHR 的财报电话会，谢了。
英文原文
@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.
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$AEHR 财报后大涨，2027 年指引强劲，积压订单充裕。
$AEHR 今天财报后大涨 +36.4%！ 2027 年指引：$1.3 亿-$1.5 亿（较 2026 年营收增长 160-200%）。认为有进一步上调指引的空间（假设无内存收入，或来自新基准测试 AI 客户的收入极少）。 Q4 订单：$6070 万，有效积压订单为 $1.006 亿。 - 领先的 AI https://t.co/1zG0VMTM57
英文原文
$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI https://t.co/1zG0VMTM57
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NBIS签Reflection算力协议后股价反跌，博主暗示背后另有合作伙伴。
$NBIS 与 Reflection AI 签署超 10 亿美元算力协议，通过 2029 年获取 GB300 访问权。Reflection 此前也与 $SPCX 签署了数十亿美元协议。鉴于 $NBIS 今日闻讯下跌 5%，这至少可以说很有趣。此外……完成此事的合作伙伴 https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
英文原文
$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
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SIVE受算法忽视但获大行认可，博主看好其补涨潜力。
@talethdabm89 感觉算法交易经常忽略 $SIVE，尽管在 CPI 数据公布后 $LITE 和光学板块略有复苏。尤其是因为它在某个瑞典随机交易所交易，但偶尔也会补涨。话虽如此，它肯定已进入机构视野，特别是因为摩根士丹利 (MS) 昨天将其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 并列为三大领先共封装光学 (CPO) 激光器公司。只是在等待事态发展，股票不会每天都直线上涨。
英文原文
@talethdabm89 Feels like algos often miss $SIVE, after slight $LITE / optical sector recovery after CPI print. Especially bc it's trading on some random Swedish exchange, but catches up on random days. That being said it's definitely on institutional radar, especially since MS put it next to $LITE and $COHR as the three leading CPO laser companies yesterday. Just waiting for things to play out, stocks don't move in a straight line up every day.
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博主对IBM缺乏深入观点，但对其财报后单日暴跌24.3%表示惊讶。
@cragents 我对 $IBM 并没有太强烈的观点，因为我不太了解他们所有的收入来源。不过，看到它在财报(ER)后单日暴跌 24.3%，说实话至少是令人惊讶的。
英文原文
@cragents Don't really have any strong opinion on $IBM since don't know enough about all their revenue streams. Was surprising to say the least seeing it drop 24.3% in a day tho after ER.
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Tower Semi 获日政府支持扩产硅光子及先进封装，目标净利12亿。
今天 $TSEM 和 $AAOI 分别发布了不同的产能扩张公告。 在日本政府的支持下，Tower Semi 宣布扩大其 300mm 硅光子(SiPho)、硅锗(SiGe)以及先进封装产能。 目标净利润为 12 亿美元，https://t.co/M90OpVVUqE
英文原文
Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, https://t.co/M90OpVVUqE
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博主说明已用AI将非英文原文翻译为英文。
@macromonster69 原文是另一种语言，已使用人工智能将其翻译成英文，供常规读者阅读。
英文原文
@macromonster69 Original article is in a different language, used AI to translate it to English for the usual audience
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黄仁勋辟谣NVDA延迟传闻，称光互连进展符合计划。
所以黄仁勋本人亲自出面进行危机公关，以应对关于 $NVDA 延迟的报道： 1. 黄仁勋表示没有延迟： - 800V 和机架间光互连（rack-to-rack optical interconnects）进展完全符合原定计划，没有实质性延迟。 - 驳斥了关于 https://t.co/V2FF2QYc6O 的谣言
英文原文
So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently: 1. Jensen Huang said no delays: - 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay. - Debunked the rumor that the https://t.co/V2FF2QYc6O
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中际旭创称1.6T需求未缩，800G需求超预期增长。
中际旭创(Innolight)投资者关系会议纪要摘要： 1. “总体而言，1.6T市场需求并未萎缩；相反，800G需求较此前预期显著增加” 整体最重要的收获是800G需求的修正（以及更长的尾部需求）。
英文原文
TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand).
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博主讽刺英特尔前景黯淡，暗示十年后持有者难有回报。
@bottleneckceo 十年后，飞天面条怪物将从天而降，用肉丸祝福每一位 $INTC 持有者。谁能证明我错了？
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@bottleneckceo 10 years from now, the flying spaghetti monster will descend from the heavens and bless every $INTC holder with a meatball. Can someone prove me wrong?
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AAOI无CPO中标，MTSI商业化时间待定，CPO激光器进展不明。
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI 的收入主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但没有共封装光学(CPO)的设计中标。其他像 $MTSI 这样的公司似乎在 CPO 激光器领域莫名消失了。CEO 表示商业化时间“待定”，目前正处于可靠性测试阶段。
英文原文
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And
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摩根士丹利研报梳理CPO产业链各环节关键参与者。
摩根士丹利今日发布关于共封装光学(CPO)的研报。关键参与者包括： - 激光供应：$SIVE、$COHR 和 $LITE - 交换平台：博通(Broadcom) 和英伟达(Nvidia) - 光学引擎与光子学：Lightmatter、Ayar Labs、Marvell/Celestial 和 POET - 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)：$TSM、$GFS 和 $TSEM https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
英文原文
Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
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GLW短期难替代FAU；Starlink扩产或致CCL交换机产能瓶颈。
简要回顾 TLDR： - 据摩根士丹利，$GLW 玻璃桥接(glass bridge)有潜力，但短期内难以取代 FAU（如 FOCI）。 - $SPCX Starlink 第三代正扩展至 10 万台（是上一代的 10 倍），可能给转向覆铜板(CCL)的交换机供应商带来产能瓶颈。 - PCB
英文原文
Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB
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博主对宏观地缘政治反复感到厌倦。
据特朗普称，霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)今年似乎已经第50次重新开放了。 我厌倦了看宏观(macro)数据。 https://t.co/GuYgkwC2Q8
英文原文
Looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open for the 50th time this year per Trump. I’m getting tired looking at macro. https://t.co/GuYgkwC2Q8
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博主戏称AMD因员工意外导致GPU计划重大延误。
@softmaxedx 我在 $AMD 的朋友绊了一跤，不得不居家休养几个小时。因此，我们很可能会看到 AMD 整个 GPU 计划出现重大延误。
英文原文
@softmaxedx My friend at $AMD tripped on a rock and had to spend a few hours at home. So we’ll likely see a major delay at AMD’s entire GPU program.
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博主指出成本数据基于高价ASP而非量产BOM，认为该分析缺乏参考价值。
@Traderissimo 所以这是最终售价的成本，而非物料清单(BOM)成本。他们还使用了$134K的平均售价(ASP)，而非量产爬坡后低于$20K的成本。正如$VPG所见，传感器单价从$750降至大规模量产时的$150。因此很多计算都变了，我觉得这个成本结构没什么帮助。
英文原文
@Traderissimo So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful
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批评市场通过夸大技术细节看空NVDA和TSM的炒作现象。
显然，看空万亿市值公司正成为一种新潮流。比如 $NVDA 或 $TSM。通过挖掘孤立的技术细节，然后夸大其词，声称其整个项目都延期了。-> 如果公司不回应，股价/情绪就会...
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Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment
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博主正在深入研究日本化学工业。
刚才正在深入研究日本化学工业(Nippon Chemical)……
英文原文
Was just doing more research into Nippon Chemical …
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IBK报告梳理波士顿动力Atlas机器人供应链及主要零部件供应商。
上个月有一份 IBK Research 关于波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)价值链的报告。简要总结如下：IBK 将这些公司映射为 Atlas 的供应商：Hwashin (010690) / 身体、手臂、腿部；LG Energy (373220) / 电池；Hyundai Autoever (307950) / 集成；Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC
英文原文
So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC
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博主指出Grok翻译丢失细微差别，内容含讽刺意味。
@BtMIV6TSQ572728 这有一半是讽刺。当 Grok 进行翻译时，很难理解其中的细微差别。
英文原文
@BtMIV6TSQ572728 This is half satire. It's hard to understand nuances when Grok is translating it.
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博主开玩笑说要学习交易三文鱼期货以更新个人简介。
@TheWaitingGameX 我接下来要学习如何交易现金结算的三文鱼期货，这样我就可以把它写进我的个人简介里了。https://t.co/oxJCHpb0Pd
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@TheWaitingGameX I'm going to learn how to trade cash-settled Salmon futures next, so I can put it in my bio. https://t.co/oxJCHpb0Pd
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4APR或已定价，鲑鱼DNA处理或成新瓶颈
@ANMcapital 4APR（4-氨基吡咯并[2,3-d]嘧啶）可能已被定价。但也许鲑鱼DNA处理（Salmon DNA processing）会成为新的瓶颈，因为女性将其用于面部乳液的量很大……
英文原文
@ANMcapital APR might be priced in. But maybe salmon DNA processing might be a new bottleneck from the amount women use for face lotion...
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博主调侃韩国美妆股APR两年涨幅惊人，远超英伟达与英特尔。
显然，韩国美妆才是所有超额收益(alpha)的所在。APR (278470.KS) 在过去两年上涨了 529%，大幅跑赢 $NVDA 和 $INTC。我认识的每个女性都在谈论她们的“Medicube”美容棒，然后购买那些让你把整条三文鱼家族谱系都敷在脸上的产品... https://t.co/bjIjMZTDgY
英文原文
Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is. APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC. Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face https://t.co/bjIjMZTDgY
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博主调侃AI模型在撰写反击言论方面日益精进。
@sama 哇，gpt-5.6 sol 在写这些反击言论方面真的越来越好了
英文原文
@sama Wow, gpt-5.6 sol is getting really good at writing these comebacks
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质疑市场将指控当事实，指出诉讼常为竞争策略。
@jaredisathome 奇怪的是，大家似乎已经把指控当作既定事实。看起来确实可信，但公司经常通过提起诉讼来拖慢竞争对手的步伐。
英文原文
@jaredisathome Strange everyone’s already taking allegations as a fact. Looks credible, but companies file lawsuits all the time to slow down competitors.
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分析某AI巨头通过融资博弈独立并建立万亿市值的路径
@SpongeQuant 如果没有完成所有这些操作，他不可能建立起一家万亿美元市值的公司。 - 获得埃隆的资助 -> 独立运营惹恼了 $TSLA - 获得 $MSFT 的资助 -> 通过引入其他超大规模云厂商注资稀释微软股份，惹恼了微软 - 获得 $NVDA 的资助 -> 为他们构建...
英文原文
@SpongeQuant He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their
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OpenAI构建独立生态激怒七巨头，被视为真正的颠覆者。
这是一个逆向观点，但如果 Sam Altman / OpenAI 能激怒包括 $AAPL 在内的所有“七巨头(Mag7)”，说明他们做对了什么。他们正在构建自己的生态系统，而不是被卷入另一个生态。自 $GOOGL、苹果、微软等公司以来，已经很久没有出现过真正的颠覆者了。
英文原文
Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.
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SIVE采用多发射器DFB阵列实现CPO，其总功率与单激光器方案相当。
@siflower 它是架构无关的。超高功率(UHP)输出可以通过单个连续波激光器实现，也可以通过多发射器连续波DFB阵列实现，后者正是 $SIVE 在共封装光学(CPO)领域采用的方案。因为后者的总输出功率是可比的。
英文原文
@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO. Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.
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AMZN回应AAOI看空报告，称已对网络优化建模。
关于 $AMZN RNG 与 OpenAI 的 MRC 及 VCSEL 技术。这似乎是对 B. Riley 发布的 $AAOI 卖出报告的一种间接回应，该报告称优化措施“使网络扁平化并削减光收发器 TAM 40-50%”。Rosenblatt 的要点是：他们已对此建模，尽管每个 XPU...
英文原文
Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU https://t.co/A41ceTqKwJ