个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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继续看空 IREN，认为它更像融资机器
正如我之前说的，$IREN 跟 $NBIS 比起来基本就是垃圾。 $NVDA 还没给 $IREN 融资。 所以 IREN 只能想办法通过 60 亿美元 ATM 和其他方式买足 GPU，把 5GW 产能变现。 这本质上就是一台无限稀释机，只是因为它拿到了电力。 我叫 $IREN 持有人 0 IQ，是因为他们只是为了拿到稀释而买入，却不理解融资结构的细节。 Nvidia 确实给了 $NBIS 资金。 而 IREN 只是拿到了一个允许它用 logo 的无风险采购协议。 $IREN 现在基本就是一家营销公司，而其他 Neocloud 才是真正让股权升值的公司。
英文原文
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds. While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo. $IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
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ALRIB 没变化，自己还持有
@0xMonney $ALRIB 没什么变化，就是没有新消息。 我还是持有我的多头仓位。
英文原文
@0xMonney Nothings changed with $ALRIB, just no new news. I still have my long positions.
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SIVE 被大量做空，反而可能让空头很难受
今天才知道 $SIVE 被做空得这么狠…… 难道价格意外上涨，真的会把对冲基金打趴下？ 一个叫 Colosseum 的对冲基金，上个月跌了 19.8%，很大程度上就是因为他们做空了 Sivers。 接下来两年 CPO 以抛物线方式爬坡，他们就要面对无限损失。 Sivers 从来不是一个纯短挤压题材，因为从基本面看，它本身就是最有吸引力的 CPO 多头之一。 但这个副作用还是挺有意思的，尤其是现在他们可能还得回补一部分流通股。
英文原文
Today I learned $SIVE was so actively shorted... That the price going up accidentally might take down hedge funds? A hedge fund Colosseum is down -19.8% last month largely due to their short position of Sivers. They now face infinite losses as CPO ramps up parabolically over the next two years. Sivers was never a short squeeze play since fundamentally, it's one of the most compelling CPO related longs. But it's an interesting effect as a byproduct, especially now that they might need to buy back % of the float.
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认为 FLNC 应该更高估值
我其实觉得 $FLNC 应该更值钱。 一个季度里接连拿到 2 个直接 hyperscaler 合同，这个意义非常大。 $MSFT 到 $AMZN 不会签小单。 当然市场通常会等更多实际新闻 / 采购订单数字出来，怕它最后没落实或者比预期低。 但一家公司的确不会无缘无故宣布 2 个 hyperscaler MSA，还说订单会在 Q3 到。 而且一个季度赢得多个 hyperscaler 合同，本身就是后续更多合同的领先指标，尤其是 Fluence BESS 越来越标准化的时候。 考虑到空头比例大约 27.69%，我不确定财报前的空头是否真的敢冒这个险…… 如果像 $GOOGL 这样的 hyperscaler 签下大合同，我觉得有机会来一波历史级上涨。
英文原文
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
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AAOI 的财报下跌反而给了更好的买点
@Jess252530 对，我最后还是买了那次下跌，并且一路摊上去了。 其实当时的业绩预测非常看多，大家不应该因为 $AAOI 的当前财报就不看它，如果它是 2027 年下半年才真正进入成长的公司。
英文原文
@Jess252530 Yeah I ended up buying that drop and cost averaging up. It was actually extremely bullish projections, people shouldn't care about the current earnings reports for $AAOI if it's a 2027 late H1 growth company.
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依旧看空 IREN，认为融资结构更差
@LMutaaya 大家当时在我 71 美元看空 $IREN 时都说“你在开玩笑吧”。 $NVDA 没有给他们融资，所以他们需要通过别的方式去借钱买 GPU，支撑 5GW 产能。 可转换债其实比 ATM 好得多。
英文原文
@LMutaaya People were saying "WERE YOU KIDDING" when I posted I was bearish on $IREN at $71. $NVDA isn't giving them any funding, so they need to raise elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity. Convertible notes is actually a lot better way to go than ATMs though.
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2.5% 稀释已解决，反而是重大利好
@DVoskens 今天 2.5% 的稀释已经解决了。这个事情之前就计划了很久。 人们 / 算法通常会对稀释反应负面，但在 $SIVE 这个例子里，其实极度正面。
英文原文
@DVoskens The 2.5% dilution was resolved today. It was planned for awhile. People/algos typically react negatively to dilution but in this case with $SIVE it’s incredibly positive
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认为纳斯达克上市带来的稀释是正面的
跟很多人 / 算法想的不一样： 让 $SIVE 通过 2.5% 稀释，实际上在这个案例里是非常正面的。 因为这能让它尽快在美国纳斯达克上市。 我不确定是否存在什么股份发行套利在影响短期价格。 但获得美国机构资本、加快扩张、把公司从瑞典小市场里重新定价，才是首要任务。
英文原文
Contrary to what people/algos think: Getting 2.5% dilution passed with $SIVE is actually extremely positive in this case. Since that helps them get listed on US Nasdaq ASAP. Not sure if there’s any share issuance arbitrage at all impacting short term prices. But getting access to US institutional capital to accelerate expansion + repricing out of small Swedish markets is priority.
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没卖过 SIVE，依旧最看好激光公司
@Leon8995385220 我不控制 $SIVE 的盘中波动。 我一股都没卖过，因为它真的是我见过的、在 CPO 2027 放量背景下最有吸引力的激光公司。
英文原文
@Leon8995385220 I don’t control intraday volatility with $SIVE. Haven’t sold a single share since it’s genuinely the most compelling laser company I’ve seen as CPO scales up 2027.
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猜测 SIVE 未来可能变成美国光子公司
@MrPelican2025 我不会惊讶如果有一天 $SIVE 变成一家美国光子公司。
英文原文
@MrPelican2025 I would not be surprised if $SIVE became an American photonics company one day.
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给出 SIVE 未来市值路径与对标 LITE 的想法
我觉得 $SIVE 明年会到 100 亿美元以上，到了 2028 年如果管理层把牌打好，能扩到 400 亿美元以上。 这很大程度上取决于管理层是不是足够有野心，想不想成为下一个 $LITE。 但这正是 Lumentum 当年怎么做的：先拥有 laser chokepoint，再向下游买 IP，把更多 TAM 吃进去。
英文原文
I think $SIVE ends up $10B+ next year and can scale to $40B+ in 2028 if they play their cards right. Really depends on how ambitious management is if they want to become the next $LITE. But this is exactly how Lumentum started owning the laser chokepoint then IP acquisition downstream to capture more TAM.
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说瑞典媒体可能终于发现股权已转向美国机构
我在想，瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到他们都干了什么，于是停止发帖了？ $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 多头，尤其是在 laser chokepoint 这块。 https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
英文原文
I wonder if Swedish media realized what they’ve done transferring control over to American investors/institutions and stopped posting? $SIVE is the most compelling CPO long I’ve seen, especially for the laser chokepoint. https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
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坚持做多 AXTI 即便它会拖累光学链条
@deron0903 当然想过这个问题。但如果 $AXTI 下跌，和 $LITE 以及其他公司的光学扩产也会一起受影响。 所以我才觉得做多它是值得的。
英文原文
@deron0903 Of course I did. But if $AXTI goes down, the optical buildout with $LITE and others goes down too. Which is why I thought it was worth it to go long anyway.
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强调 SIVE 的真正增长来自光子业务
@bexilon99 你看到的是一个前期开发合同，但那只是他们另一个业务段。 他们真正的增长都来自 photonics。 $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口多头。
英文原文
@bexilon99 You're looking at a pre-production dev contract with their other segment. Their entire growth comes from photonics. $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure long I've seen.
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AAOI被比作光学版Intel，借超大规模需求东风，2027年收入预测显示严重低估。
我之前在 $AAOI 市值 $6.49B 时就说过同样的话。 现在市值 $11.5B，故事还是一样的： 基本上这就是光学(Optics)版的 $INTC，他们正在将产能从激光晶圆制造扩展到美国本土组装。 他们生产的任何东西都可能被超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)收购。 如果看 2027 年中期预测的 $1.41B 季度收入增长（$471 x 3）与当前市值的对比，当前的财务数据其实不太重要。 以及高盛预测的 9 倍 TAM 增长曲线。
英文原文
I’ve said this before when $AAOI was $6.49B. Now it’s $11.5B and this is the same story: Basically this is the Optical version of $INTC, where they’re scaling capacity from laser fab to assembly Made in America. Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers. Current financials don’t really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC. And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.
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认为 SIVE 只是正常回调，股权在转向美国投资者
没什么，只是轻微回调。我对 $SIVE 后续还是很有信心。 这只是 CPO 超级周期前，股份从瑞典人手里标准地转给美国投资者。大概还有 7% 左右还在瑞典本地。 这种回调通常会带来更高的高点，并形成更强的股东基础。
英文原文
Nothing, just a slight correction. I have high conviction in $SIVE moving forward. It’s just a standard transfer of shares to US investors before the CPO supercycle, think Swedish retail have ~7% or so left. Corrections like this tend to lead to higher highs with a stronger shareholder base.
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仍然看好 RDDT 这类非 AI 名字
我仍然觉得 $RDDT 是少数几个非 AI 名字里非常有吸引力的一个。 单看它们增长有多快，以及财报后的真实盈利能力。 老实说我还是不明白它为什么跑输大盘…… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ
英文原文
I still think $RDDT is one of the few non-AI names that is extremely compelling. Just by how fast they’re growing + true profitability post-earnings. Honestly still not sure why they’re underperforming the market… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ
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FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同而重估
而且……$FLNC 现在已经涨了 50% 以上。 我本来就觉得它被低估了，而再加上两个 hyperscaler 合同，简直是锦上添花。 很期待市场会把这家能源公司重估到什么程度。 https://t.co/3RB2u9tBvq
英文原文
And… $FLNC is up over 50% now. I did think it was undervalued as is, but it was a massive cherry on top throwing in 2 hyperscaler deals. Exciting to see how much markets re-rate this energy company. https://t.co/3RB2u9tBvq
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Nomura 给 SOI 250 欧元目标价的反向验证
哈哈。Nomura 刚开始覆盖 $SOI，就给了 250 欧元目标价。 当我在大约 43 欧元做多时，第一次涨 25% 之后，机构还说不要买，说没有新东西。 现在两个月后，他们给出的目标价已经是我 thesis 发帖价的 6 倍多了。 https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2
英文原文
LOL. Nomura initiates $SOI coverage and gives it a EUR 250 PT. Back when I went long at ~€43, after the first +25% institutions were saying not to buy and that there’s nothing new. Now 2 months later they’re giving price targets ~6X+ my thesis post. https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2
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盘前因双 hyperscaler 合同大涨
现在还是盘前…… 但因为 $FLNC 拿下了两个直接 hyperscaler 合同，已经涨了 18.66%。 尤其是在这么小的市值下，这类合同通常会带来巨大的重估。 https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4
英文原文
It’s still premarket… But +18.66% off $FLNC having 2 direct hyperscaler contracts coming up. Especially at this tiny MC, having these types of contracts typically leads to massive re-rating. https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4
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回复网友关于SIVE如何通过ADR转换在美国市场交易的问题
@xuefeng_huang 如果$SIVE走ADR（美国存托凭证）路线，你可以从瑞典进行ADR转换，它就会开始在美国市场上交易，类似$ARM。
英文原文
@xuefeng_huang If $SIVE goes the ADR route you can do an ADR conversion from Sweden to US and it will just start trading on US markets like $ARM.
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分析$SIVE股东结构剧变，瑞典资本撤离而美国资本接盘，控制权即将完成转移。
我之前说什么来着？$SIVE 正在经历所有权从瑞典向美国转移的过程…… 如果我正确解读了新的大股东名册（cap table）： 美国/西方现在持有 $SIVE 42.18% 的股份： ~$FNF（富达）- 11.5%（美国/西方） ~$SCHW（嘉信）- 11.4%（美国/西方） ~$IBKR - 9.25%（美国/国际） ~ 佩兴集团（纽约梅隆）- 4.15%（美国/西方） ~ 摩根士丹利 - 3.12% ~ 美林证券（$BOA）- 2.76% 欧洲：约 7.73%： 明讯银行（Clearstream Banking）- 6.16%（欧洲） 瑞士银行 - 1.57%（瑞典/欧盟） 而瑞典人现在只持有 $SIVE 约 7.49% 的股份： Avanza Pension 保险公司 - 4.76% Nordnet 人寿保险公司 - 2.73% 此前，Sivers 是一家约 60% 欧洲/瑞典散户持股的公司…… 从那以后一路下跌，接近于零，因为他们在不断抛售股份。 美国人即将获得接近绝对多数的控制权，恰在 2027 年 CPO（共封装光学）超级周期之前。 转让似乎快完成了？
英文原文
What did I say? $SIVE was undergoing a transfer of Swedish ownership over to the US... If I'm interpreting things right from the new cap table. The US / West now owns 42.18% of $SIVE: ~ $FNF (Fidelity) - 11.5% (US/West) ~ $SCHW (Schwab) - 11.4% (US/West) ~ $IBKR - 9.25% (US/International) ~ Pershing (BNY Melon) - 4.15% (US/West) ~ Morgan Stanley - 3.12% ~Merrill Lynch ( $BOA ) - 2.76% Europe: ~7.73%: Clearstream Banking - 6.16% (European) UBS Switzerland AG - 1.57% (Swedish/EU) While Swedish now hold ~7.49% of $SIVE: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring AB - 2.73 Before, Sivers was a ~60% European/Swedish retail owned company... They went from that, down closer to 0 as they keep selling their shares. US has close to majority control, right before the CPO supercycle of 2027. Transfer seems almost complete?
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解释 IREN 拿到的是无风险品牌授权，不是真投资
@bennybigbull 他们拿到的是**购买 3000 万股的权利**。 $NVDA 根本没有投钱。 他们只是因为允许 IREN 使用他们的品牌、并进一步稀释自己去买 Nvidia GPU，才拿到一个无风险的期权式认购协议。
英文原文
@bennybigbull They have the **right to** buy 30m shares. $NVDA hasn't invested anything. They just got a risk-free option purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their branding and dilute more to buy Nvidia GPUs.
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认为 IREN 的主牛点只是软件收购，但仍不想接稀释
@CookerFlips 某种程度上是这样。$IREN 的主要牛点，如果你愿意忽略噪音的话，其实是他们最近收购了 Mirantis 的软件业务。 但我还是不想去接那种为了买 5GW GPU 产能、被稀释 60 亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@CookerFlips In a sense. The main bull case for $IREN was their software acquisition with Mirantis recently if you want to look past the fluff. Still wouldn't want to be the one to get diluted $6B to fund their 5 GW worth of GPU purchases.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它只是品牌协议和稀释机器
我现在还是看空 $IREN。 算法 / 散户大概是看见 $NVDA 和 $IREN 合作就冲了进去。 但如果看现实情况，那更像是一个品牌协议，给了 $NVDA 无风险的可转票据。 所以 $IREN 还能继续把 60 亿美元 ATM 卖给散户。 这就像一家创业公司用了 AWS，就说自己和 Amazon 合作，然后让别人给它 60 亿美元。 这根本不是 Nvidia 直接给 IREN 融资，只是给了它一个无风险选择权。 有个“5GW 部署”故事，但我不想成为那个替它接稀释的人。
英文原文
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
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财报非常正面，市场反应却看错了
$AAOI 报了财，我看下来其实非常正面，和市场反应完全相反。 和所有 2027 年那种超高斜率前瞻成长公司一样： 大家不该只盯当前财报。 市场漏掉的关键点是： AOI 已经把 800G transceiver 的产能做到每月 10 万台。 而且管理层说，随着产能上线，Q3 开始会有明显更大的增长。 如果真看财务： non-GAAP 毛利率约 29.2% 营收约 1.511 亿美元，Q2 指引 1.8 亿到 1.98 亿美元。 我们已经从 Lumentum 的财报知道，这更多是产能瓶颈，不是需求瓶颈。只要能做出来，都会卖完。 这是一个前瞻成长故事，所以除了这些数字之外，更重要的是财报电话会里对 hyperscaler 需求和产能爬坡的说明。
英文原文
$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions. Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies: Nobody should care about current financials. Key things market missed was: AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers. And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online" If you do look at financials: It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2. We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out. It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.
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认为 FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
@AorakiTrading 对，如果没有拿到 2 份 hyperscaler 协议，我不会去建仓。 像 $NBIS 那样的一份大型 $MSFT 合同，就足以让这种小型能源公司发生巨大重估。 但他们拿到的是 2 份，不止 1 份。
英文原文
@AorakiTrading Yeah, I wouldn’t have taken positions if they didn’t get 2 hyperscaler agreements. One large $MSFT contract as seen with $NBIS would likely cause a massive rerating for a small energy company like $FLNC. But they had 2, not just 1
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提醒不要满仓，但看好 FLNC 的双 hyperscaler 合同
@Kevin1151268 呃……满仓从来不是最好的主意。 不过好消息是，$FLNC 还有两个新的 hyperscaler 合同，当前的 backlog / 财报里都还没算进去。 能同时给两个 hyperscaler 供货，对这么小的公司来说意义非常大，谁知道合同到底有多大。
英文原文
@Kevin1151268 Uhh… going all in is never the best idea. But on the bright side $FLNC has two new hyperscaler deals not included in their massive backlog / financials yet. Supplying to two different hyperscalers is enormous for a company this size, who knows how big the contracts are.
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AAOI 基本面没变，只是短线波动更大
@Blake_BTFD $AAOI 没什么变化，只是短线价格变得更抖了？ 得习惯 Jane Street 带来的波动。我更多还是关心 1.6T 相关产能爬坡，以及财报里有没有额外的 hyperscaler 数字。 当前收入本身倒不是重点。
英文原文
@Blake_BTFD Nothing changed about $AAOI, just the short prices? Gotta get used to Jane Street adding volatility. Mostly curious about 1.6T related capacity ramp and any extra hyperscaler figures in their earnings. Not so much so about current revenues.
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认为 FLNC 的两份 hyperscaler 合同会压制空头
@pennycheck 对，不太明白为什么很多基金喜欢做空美国能源公司的方向性。 未来几个月内如果这两份 hyperscaler 合同落实，虽然数量还不清楚，但对他们来说大概会很吓人。这样可能会让他们逐步降低 $FLNC 的风险敞口，反而增加买盘。
英文原文
@pennycheck Yeah not sure why many funds like directionality shorting US energy companies... Having 2 hyperscaler deals convert sometime in the next few months with unknown figures is probably scary for them. Would probably make them derisk $FLNC over time, adding to buying pressure.